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Jay Cutler (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gbill2004
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
Have you watched him play?
Anonymous Internet User
Footballguy
3500 yards his first year as a starter?the kid has one of the best arms in the leaguehe is in better shape this year after dropping some weight in the offseason (he is diabetic)what's NOT to like about him? he's being drafted in rounds 9-12 ...as for WRs ... Brandon Marshall is VERY talented, they added DJax (who isn't entirely washed up yet) and have a good pass-catching TE in Scheffler
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JGalligan
Footballguy
I agree with Anonymous, his numbers are impressive seeing as it was his first full year in the league. Plus, the 2008 schedule pales in comparison with 2007. Last year was a lot tougher and it was his first year. This year is his second and it's easier. 1 + 1 = 2. He "gets" it. With it being what it takes to be a great QB. I'll be incredibly surprised if he doesn't turn into a Pro Bowl QB. Very surprised.
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Also, the below average D, combined w/ average to unproven RBs, the general demise of their run blocking O line and consequent 'average' running game will force them to pass (probably more than Shanny would like to). Cutler is a solid young QB in the middle of a team re-structure, but has Marshall, Scheffler, and other decent WR2/3 options. And considering his ADP - if he can up the TDs to the mid 20s this season, he'll make many late QB drafters very happy.Don't underestimate the diabetes issue. He didn't get diagnosed until AFTER the season, and now it's allegedly under control. He lost A LOT of weight throughout the season, not to mention unbalanced blood sugar levels, which I'm sure effected his on field play. And he still put up 3500 and 20. Compare that to a guy like Campbell or VY's stats and he looks even better.ETA - the only downside is the DB's in the AFCW are about the best overall in the league.Solid dynasty BUY and redraft value IMO for those of us not willing to pony up a 5th on McNabb or Hass.
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the rover
Footballguy
Great points, except about Jackson. He is about as washed up as it gets. He was never the fastest, and he's lost more than a step. Add that to the fact that he drops balls on a regular basis and can't stay healthy. He's not a positive in this equation.
evilempire
Footballguy
While you're right about Denver being a largely run-based offense, Cutler allows the Broncos to be one of those rare teams that can go vertical in the passing game. Too many teams rely on dink and dunk, underneath stuff to move the chains, but Cutler has a live arm, good mobility (he ran for a 15-yard score in the last preseason game) and a great feel for the offense.Marshall, when he isn't extricating his head from his ####, is one of the league's emerging talents at receiver, Scheffler can get down the seam as a TE and rookie Eddie Royal has been impressive and looks like he may be able to start. There's also the always-reliable Brandon Stokley in the slot. All the pieces are in place for Cutler to put together a big season.
Andy Herron
Footballguy
Simply put, that's it right there.That's all you need to see.
Great point to bring up. They've been a team that's lived and died by the run since Elway left. Not that they didn't live by the run back then too. Still, with all the changes in personnel throughout the past few years, he's quickly becoming the identity for this Broncos team. He's good. He brings alot of talent and heart to this team, and he's going to be a QB that wins games when he has to do so.
Cutler is a solid young QB in the middle of a team re-structure, but has Marshall, Scheffler, and other decent WR2/3 options. And considering his ADP - if he can up the TDs to the mid 20s this season, he'll make many late QB drafters very happy.
Don't underestimate the diabetes issue. He didn't get diagnosed until AFTER the season, and now it's allegedly under control. He lost A LOT of weight throughout the season, not to mention unbalanced blood sugar levels, which I'm sure effected his on field play. And he still put up 3500 and 20. Compare that to a guy like Campbell or VY's stats and he looks even better.
ETA - the only downside is the DB's in the AFCW are about the best overall in the league.
Solid dynasty BUY and redraft value IMO for those of us not willing to pony up a 5th on McNabb or Hass.
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Andy Herron
Footballguy
To me, you could almost make the analogy to Jeff George when it comes to Cutler, but a good head to go with it.
His arm is remarkable to say the least. He can make throws that very few can in the NFL.
His arm is remarkable to say the least. He can make throws that very few can in the NFL.
radballs
Footballguy
Who's he going to get in over? Manning, Brady, Palmer, Roethlisberger, or Favre. Don't see it but he is young and obviously hasn't hit his peak yet. Great arm but he's getting anointed just a bit soon imo.
JKL
Footballguy
Because he had one of the best seasons this side of Dan Marino and Daunte Culpepper for a second year player at age 24 or under. Excellent yards per attempt, high completion percentage, and a healthy touchdown percentage. Similar to, but better than Brady 2001. Similar to, but better than, Palmer 2004. Similar to Montana 1981, when he first led the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Very similar to Peyton Manning in 1999. Similar, but better than, Favre in his first year with GB in 1992. The future is bright. The question is whether the future, in terms of top 5 finishes, begins in 2008. At his current ADP, worth the chance that it does.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Cutler's arm is strong, but let's not go nuts with the Jeff George comparison.George had a legendary cannon. Many scouts to this day said he put on the best "7 on 7" displays they've ever seen.Out of current players, only JaMarcus Russell is in the same class, and Favre used to be.
JGalligan
Footballguy
I wasn't saying he would get in this year. I'm talking two, three, four maybe even five years down the road when Favre is gone and Manning is on a downwards slope. There's also no telling what could happen to the other guys. I should have clarified though, my b.
Rivers went not too long ago.
the rover
Footballguy
Even Jake Plummer managed a 2004 season with 4000+ yards (4th in the NFL) and 27 TDs (7th) in this system. Cutler was 10th in yards last year, 13th in TDs. There's no reason he shouldn't be improving on last year's performance.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
I think that it's important to note that Jay Cutler put up those very good numbers last season in essentially 15 games. He was hurt very early in the game against Detroit. Had he not been injured we could very easily be talking a qb who put up 23-25 TD's and nearly 3800 yards in his first season as a starter on an offense that was decimated by injury and while battling illness. With all that his performance overall last season was very impressive.
I also think that his rushing ability shouldn't be overlooked also. Outside of the mobile qbs like McNabb, Young, and Jackson, no other qb had more rushing yards than his 205 last season.
I also think that his rushing ability shouldn't be overlooked also. Outside of the mobile qbs like McNabb, Young, and Jackson, no other qb had more rushing yards than his 205 last season.
moleculo
Footballguy
This is not your fathers Bronco team. I've been saying for a couple of years, and witnessed it happen, that this team is gradually transforming from a run first team to a throw first team.____ pass att2005 465 5422006 454 4872007 515 429in terms of playcalling, in 2007, Denver threw the ball 54.6% of the time, above the league average for % passes and the 2nd highest % passes Shanahan has ever called (2002, 54.9%).In addition to the afore mentioned Plummer stats, in 2000, Brian Griese put up 2688/19/4 in 10 games - extrapolated to a 16 game season, that works out to 4300/30/9, which is pretty good I guess.Don't knock Cutler based on playcalling
Banger
Footballguy
Anderson.
Banger
Footballguy
With regard to the OP's question, the answer is he's got all the tools (a gun, good head on his shoulders, gambling mentality, good scrambling ability), has good, young weapons with Marshall/Sheffler, had a good 1st year as a starter despite having undiagnosed diabetes which caused him to drop 20 pounds and has a terrible defense so they'll be behind a lot. There's not a lot not to like.
cutler6
Footballguy
But I'm not biased...
Tubalcane
Footballguy
One issue that many have overlooked is how the Denver Def affects Cutler. During the Plummer era the Broncos had one of the better run def in the league. Unfortunately they also had a horrible pass def. This usually kept games close, which allowed Denver to use ball control offense (run first mentality).
Now the Broncos Def is just bad in every phase. Because of this Denver’s opponents score more points, which in turn forces Denver to throw more. I can’t see much improvement in Denver’s D this year. In fact I think they will be about the same level as last year.
For this year, it is clear that Denver’s run game will be in flux. The center Nalen (let us not forget he is one of the best ever) is questionable at best. The rest of his O-line is largely inexperienced and has not gelled together like a seasoned line does. Put those factors in with a Rb corps that I see as the worse that Denver has had in more than a decade, and you have the makings for a ground game disaster in Mile High. If anything the run game won’t be as effective until well after the mid-point of the season. I’ll give them a little time to work together and gel.
As far as Denver’s WRs…it’s beyond question that they improved in that area a whole lot. Cutler will have plenty of targets to throw to. Being that Cutler is extremely physically talented, I see him as being the kind of QB that makes WRs great, as opposed to a QB who is made great by the WRs that he has to throw to.
Take all those considerations in mind (Bad Denver D, declining Den run game, better WR corps, better schedule against the pass), and you have the recipe for a nice production leap for Cutler. But more than the rest, the Denver Def will force Cutler to produce.
Now the Broncos Def is just bad in every phase. Because of this Denver’s opponents score more points, which in turn forces Denver to throw more. I can’t see much improvement in Denver’s D this year. In fact I think they will be about the same level as last year.
For this year, it is clear that Denver’s run game will be in flux. The center Nalen (let us not forget he is one of the best ever) is questionable at best. The rest of his O-line is largely inexperienced and has not gelled together like a seasoned line does. Put those factors in with a Rb corps that I see as the worse that Denver has had in more than a decade, and you have the makings for a ground game disaster in Mile High. If anything the run game won’t be as effective until well after the mid-point of the season. I’ll give them a little time to work together and gel.
As far as Denver’s WRs…it’s beyond question that they improved in that area a whole lot. Cutler will have plenty of targets to throw to. Being that Cutler is extremely physically talented, I see him as being the kind of QB that makes WRs great, as opposed to a QB who is made great by the WRs that he has to throw to.
Take all those considerations in mind (Bad Denver D, declining Den run game, better WR corps, better schedule against the pass), and you have the recipe for a nice production leap for Cutler. But more than the rest, the Denver Def will force Cutler to produce.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
And that's the best you could come up with...how long has Shanny been in Denver?
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey gbill, you're leaving some pretty important metrics out of your synopsis of last season:*** 63.6% completion*** 3,497 yards*** 7.5 yards per attempt*** 44 rushes*** 205 yards rushing*** 1 TD*** QB11 Those numbers are excellent for a QB in his first full year as a starter; the kid was just outside the top-10 at his position and you weren't impressed with the numbers?. And then consider that he was suffering through Diabetes undiagnosed. He lost up to 32 pounds during the season and was massively fatigued, yet they had no idea what was wrong with him.He's getting treatment now, is managing his diseases and is back to his playing weight. His mobility goes a long way (200 rushing yards is equivalent to 400-500 passing yards in most leagues), as does the expectation for a natural progression. WCO QBs need three to four years usually before they master the offense, and Cutler is on his way.The only concern, and it's legitimate, is his WR corps. Without Brandon Marshall for a few games, he could get off to a rocky start. But I fully expect this to be one of many top-10 fantasy seasons Cutler has in store.
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Andy Herron
Footballguy
Oh, I'm well aware. They had to change the grading structure at the combine after 1990 because George shattered nearly everything.He pegged all the needles.
I did say "almost."
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Cutler has looked amazing - better than ever - in training camp.
This is his 3rd year in the system, historically Mike Shanahan QBs in their 3rd year really shine. (plummer 2005, griese a pro bowler his 3rd year)
Arm, Intelligence, Athleticism - Cutler has it all.
But here's an important factor that may get overlooked:
This defense is bad. I mean really bad. No pass rush, LB questions, more. I do like the secondary, but it doesn't matter if you can't stop the run and can't pressure the QB. so what does that have to do with Cutler?
Broncos playing from behind means a lot of Jay and that passing game and less of Selvin/Andre and the RBs.
PLUS in the redzone the Broncos will be looking to spread the field. We all know that they struggle to run in short yardage situations. This OL just isn't built for pushing people off the ball at the goalline. Expect to see Anthony Alridge get some PT in the red zone, split out wide or catching passes in the backfield. More passing in the red zone means we could see a season like Big Ben had last year for the Steelers.
This is his 3rd year in the system, historically Mike Shanahan QBs in their 3rd year really shine. (plummer 2005, griese a pro bowler his 3rd year)
Arm, Intelligence, Athleticism - Cutler has it all.
But here's an important factor that may get overlooked:
This defense is bad. I mean really bad. No pass rush, LB questions, more. I do like the secondary, but it doesn't matter if you can't stop the run and can't pressure the QB. so what does that have to do with Cutler?
Broncos playing from behind means a lot of Jay and that passing game and less of Selvin/Andre and the RBs.
PLUS in the redzone the Broncos will be looking to spread the field. We all know that they struggle to run in short yardage situations. This OL just isn't built for pushing people off the ball at the goalline. Expect to see Anthony Alridge get some PT in the red zone, split out wide or catching passes in the backfield. More passing in the red zone means we could see a season like Big Ben had last year for the Steelers.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Quick hits on Cutler....
1) For NFL (and not FF) purposes: Cutler had one of the most difficult passing schedules in the league last year. After adjusting for strength of schedule, Cutler ranked fourth in the league in adjusted (+10 yards for every TD, -45 yards for every INT) yards per attempt last year. As I wrote in that article, "Jay Cutler faced a really difficult schedule, too. He had only three games against a below average pass defense — Chicago, Houston and a four pass game against Detroit. To rank top five in his second year is very impressive, and bodes well for the future."
2) For NFL (and not FF) purposes: Let's ignore SOS for a bit, even though we know Cutler had an absolutely brutal one last year. Jay Cutler was 24 years old last year, and played very, very well. Cutler's season, by a complicated metric I used to compare all QBs across eras, ranks as the 12th best season by a 24 year old QB (or younger) since 1980. He's behind two seasons each by Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar and Peyton Manning, and behind seasons by Culpepper, Kosar, Esiason, Vick and Roethlisberger. That's a pretty impressive list. He's ahead of Bledsoe, Favre, McNair, Cunningham, Elway, Brees, McNabb, Eli, and a host of others.
3) For FF purposes: Cutler had the #1 hardest schedule of any full time starter last year. After adjusting for strength of schedule and partial games,, Cutler ranked 11th in fantasy performance, which also matches his raw FP production. Denver ranked only 21st in pass attempts, but if they throw more, Cutler has the ability to put up top-five numbers.
1) For NFL (and not FF) purposes: Cutler had one of the most difficult passing schedules in the league last year. After adjusting for strength of schedule, Cutler ranked fourth in the league in adjusted (+10 yards for every TD, -45 yards for every INT) yards per attempt last year. As I wrote in that article, "Jay Cutler faced a really difficult schedule, too. He had only three games against a below average pass defense — Chicago, Houston and a four pass game against Detroit. To rank top five in his second year is very impressive, and bodes well for the future."
2) For NFL (and not FF) purposes: Let's ignore SOS for a bit, even though we know Cutler had an absolutely brutal one last year. Jay Cutler was 24 years old last year, and played very, very well. Cutler's season, by a complicated metric I used to compare all QBs across eras, ranks as the 12th best season by a 24 year old QB (or younger) since 1980. He's behind two seasons each by Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar and Peyton Manning, and behind seasons by Culpepper, Kosar, Esiason, Vick and Roethlisberger. That's a pretty impressive list. He's ahead of Bledsoe, Favre, McNair, Cunningham, Elway, Brees, McNabb, Eli, and a host of others.
3) For FF purposes: Cutler had the #1 hardest schedule of any full time starter last year. After adjusting for strength of schedule and partial games,, Cutler ranked 11th in fantasy performance, which also matches his raw FP production. Denver ranked only 21st in pass attempts, but if they throw more, Cutler has the ability to put up top-five numbers.
The problem is that based on the current SOS, Cutler is tied for the third worst schedule this year and at 15.7 is only .1 from having the worst schedule in the NFLagain.
I don't really care much about adjusted numbers based on SOS when his schedule this year is almost as difficult.
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packersfan
Footballguy
I was a Cutler owner last season and saw all of his games. I think he is a talent but he was brutally inconsistent last season. Now that's to be expected with a young starting QB but I'm not sure that inconsistency will just vanish away this year. I also worry about the team's issues in the running game (I'm not a big believer in Selvin Young), the lack of talent in the WR corps other than Marshall (if they're counting on a big year from Royal that could be asking for a lot) and the fact Marshall will miss at least the first two games and possibly the first three due to his suspension. I think when you put all of those things together it makes Cutler a very risky QB. Again, this isn't a question of talent. I believe he's talented. I'm just not sure everything is lined up for him to be a consistent fantasy starter. And given where he's being ranked by many people, including FBG who is extremely high on him, he has to be one. I'd feel much better about Cutler if I had him as a backup but that isn't where he's being ranked right now.
I see nothing but upside with this kid:
good young receiving core including TE
so so defense which means they'll be behind alot and Cutler will have to throw more
unsettled and injury wrought RB core right now--they may HAVE to pass to move the ball
he's fully healthy now and has his strength and weight back--and now knows WHY his health was diminishing last year--but we are told his diabetes in under control and will be fine
One last note: word is he looked real good in practices this week against Cowboys number 1 defense--especially in two minute and goal line drills. The Boys defense should be pretty stout this year but let's see how he does against them in tonights preseason game
Adios and stay thirsty my friends!
good young receiving core including TE
so so defense which means they'll be behind alot and Cutler will have to throw more
unsettled and injury wrought RB core right now--they may HAVE to pass to move the ball
he's fully healthy now and has his strength and weight back--and now knows WHY his health was diminishing last year--but we are told his diabetes in under control and will be fine
One last note: word is he looked real good in practices this week against Cowboys number 1 defense--especially in two minute and goal line drills. The Boys defense should be pretty stout this year but let's see how he does against them in tonights preseason game
Adios and stay thirsty my friends!
the rover
Footballguy
and as usual you've come up with...nothing.you want to talk about Shanny's whole tenure in Denver...great. 7 of 13 years in the top 10 in passing TDs. 9 of 13 years in the top half of the NFL for passing yards. the griese era becomes more of an anomaly than a rule if you want to look at the entirety of Shanahan's career in Denver.you can't do much with Plummer's 2003 or 2006 seasons, since he didn't play the whole season. 2003 was solid through 11 games, 2006 was bad, but Plummer was done at that point. I guess you're looking at Brian Griese and trying to draw conclusions about the Denver offense...he led the league in QB rating for this team, but didn't put up great numbers. that's just working with what you've got. in the past 4 years, Denver QBs were in the top 10 twice. the offense with Cutler is a lot more open than the offense with Griese was.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
huh? My assertion is that Shannahan offenses are not elite passing offenses and the QB scoring data backs up that assertion.If you want good, but not great passing numbers...Cutler is your guy. If you're thinking there is more upside here, particularly with Marshall missing action then you're sorely mistaken.The biggest shortcomin in this forum is that people are not realistic with player expectations...it's actually a problem in the entire industry...but that's fine, I'm here to take advantage of that. Excuse me while I jump back into one of the five Chris Johnson is lightning in a bottle threads...I'm tempering expectatins there too.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Anything under #6 and you've got yourself a below average starting QB in a typical 12 team league...so top 10 doesn't mean much to me, particularly in a discussion where my main point is that Shannahan offenses lack upside. Upside to me, means the player can be an above average starter at his position...Cutler is in the wrong offense to do that IMHO.
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thecardiackid
Footballguy
Don't agree. Especially when you can get potential top 6 value @ #11/12 QB off the board value. I'm getting Cutler consistently in the 6th or 7th round (14 team mocking also - vs. 12) around but typically AFTER McNabb/Hass - but they're going in the 5th. And the play is the upside of POTENTIAL top 5/6/7ish stats coming a couple of rounds later. (ala BigBen last season).I'll be OK w/ QB7 or QB8 @ the end of the year if I can get him drafted as QB 12 later in the draft. Enabling me more @ WR3/RB3/TE options in the earlier rounds.
I don't think anyone here is predicting Cutler as a top 3 QB this season, but he is a decent enough value play based on his ADP.
moleculo
Footballguy
does people with differing projections/opinions than mine = not realistic player expectations?Some people have different opinions than yours, and that's ok.
the rover
Footballguy
even you aren't this dense. what's the difference in expected points between the 7th and 12th QBs? What was the difference last year? after the first 4 this year, six at the outside, you're looking for a QB that can perform in the top 12 and outperform his ADP.
Dr. Malo
Footballguy
I watched Jeff George and his "legendary" arm. Yes, he could throw it 70 yards, so could Favre, so could Elway, so could Aaron Brooks, Culpepper, and Michael Vick. They have QB cometitions every year before the probowl and in the summer, and you can watch how far they throw. In fact, of the above, Elway could throw it the furthest at 78 yards.Cutler is a different story, in college at Vanderbilt, there is a nice video, he threw the ball 80 yards through the air to a WR. 80 yards in the air. If the WR would have let it go, it may have travelled 85 yards or so.Although Cutler has not been in any QB competitions yet, he will be soon enough, then we can get accurate numbers on his distance. At the combine, he benched 225 pounds twenty six times. No other QB even tried.Cutler has arm strength and a quick release, with lots of velocity on the ball. Go to YouTube and search for Cutler to Walker, he had a 67 yard pass to Javon Walker that travelled from his 33 yard line to about 2 yards deep into the endzone into Javon's hands, in a fraction of a second. 67 yards is not record-breaking, but the speed, velocity and accuracy was unbelievable. He didn't heave it up and float it downfield. He rocketed downfield. That was the fastest a ball travelled 67 yards that the NFL has seen since Elway himself, when he first joined the league.Mel Kiper once said, "If God wanted to create a quarterback, he'd make John Elway."Folks, the arm, brain, and legs on Cutler are Elway-esque and eerily reminiscent of another 6 foot 3 Qb that could run, pass, and had a huge arm.As for Jamarcus Russell, We'll see what he can do. I watched him in college throw some deep 70-80 yard passes, but they were rainbows and floated downfield. Little velocity. We'll have to wait and see how he develops. He could be the biggest arm the NFL has ever seen, if he develops properly. But for now, I would go with Cutler if you wanted a live, big, zip arm.Cutler can squeeze the ball into places, between defenders unlike anyone else. And with such speed it's pretty amazing. Go to youtube or nfl.com and look at his highlights, your mouth will be gaping open. Watch the Chicago game, the Steelers game, the Colts game. Amazing passes. He can throw across his body with immense velocity and can throw backside while scrambling like it was nothing. He is an extremely exciting young QB.
BusterTBronco
Footballguy
In 2004, Jake Plummer threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 TD's
Zaxxon
Footballguy
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Hence the word "rarely."
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Denver team passing ranks
Code:
2007 142006 252005 152004 82003 182002 152001 14
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BeaverCleaver
Footballguy
And you wonder why people despise you.
BeaverCleaver
Footballguy
It's not ok for LHUCKS. The guy is a legend in is own mind.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
This is a fantasy football messageboard...are you confused about where you're at?
BeaverCleaver
Footballguy
And you wonder why people despise you.
Banger
Footballguy
things never change?
That's enough. He heard you the first time. Don't go there again when you come back.J
