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Jeremy Hill will be the #1 fantasy RB this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Like I have said from day 1. Bernard is too good to not get touches.
shadyridr
Footballguy
i dunno but i thought i had a set it and forget it rb1 and now i think i have to bench him.
RBM
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Roster poison
georg013
Footballguy
Shine young man. Shine. As a Hill owner I am highly disturbed. Maybe if he spent less time worrying about being on talk shows and dancing, this sort of day doesnt happen. Win for Bernard owners and Hill haters.X2at all the posters who dismissed Bernard in this thread.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
TZMarkie
Footballguy
As a Hill owner, I am disturbed too.
But knowing how I roll with early RB picks, I was smart enough to draft Gio Bernard as well....why would anyone not have gotten him in addition to Hill is beyond me? (if you drafted Hill that is)
I bet its going to be hard to pick which is the better play for the next few weeks as it is now. :(
Not too stoked here, and it looks like I am going to lose a close one because of this.
TZM
But knowing how I roll with early RB picks, I was smart enough to draft Gio Bernard as well....why would anyone not have gotten him in addition to Hill is beyond me? (if you drafted Hill that is)
I bet its going to be hard to pick which is the better play for the next few weeks as it is now. :(
Not too stoked here, and it looks like I am going to lose a close one because of this.
TZM
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Wait....what? Wait.... what?
That he put the ball on the ground twice and that won't happen every week?
Or, the Bernard bogeyman was invoked all last year and ended up being wrong? Hill began the year as the backup, decisively beat out Bernard and led all NFL backs in yardage the last nine games of the season.
Tau837
Footballguy
Serious question: did you watch the game?
If you did, you would know that Bernard is a threat to Hill's touches.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I claimed all off season that due to where Hill will be drafted you are going to be upset having to deal with inconsistency due to Gio being not your typical back up rb. GIo was also hurt last year and when healthy he is an above average RB himself. I said the Hill owners will be in here claiming Gio is to involved all year and this is why I stayed away from this situation.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
It was the AFC game carried in LA because of the Chargers.
You know for certain what the distribution would have been like if not for the two fumbles? Do you see that happening on a regular basis?
All I'm saying is these exact same objections were said last year and ended up being wrong? There were actually critiques based on the great Jermaine Gresham.
You know for certain what the distribution would have been like if not for the two fumbles? Do you see that happening on a regular basis?
All I'm saying is these exact same objections were said last year and ended up being wrong? There were actually critiques based on the great Jermaine Gresham.
Pipes
Footballguy
Tried but Gio went 2 full rounds ahead of his adp so I didn't get him in the 1 league I have Hill. Just going to ride it out with Hill I guess.
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RBM
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
X3X2
Just to add to the laffers; I heard Evan Silva say on the couch that people think Giovani Bernard is a better RB than he is.....
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
The second fumble was after. The dog house seems to me a face value and straightforward explanation.
Bernard ran well, but in his first two seasons, he averaged 4.1 and 4.0 Y/C. There is a perception by some that he is special, but it isn't really supported by the numbers. It wasn't an accident that Hill beat him out decisively in the second half of the season. I think he is the only rookie in league history with four 150+ yard rushing games, and that was basically starting half a season. There are very few VET RBs who have surpassed that, with five or more 150+ yard rushing games, almost all of them are Hall of Famers, started significantly more games, and didn't do it for the most part until being in the league for 4-5-6 seasons.
Bernard is only about 207 lbs, Hill about 237 lbs., he is built much better to carry the load. Bernard has shown signs of wearing down with heavy usage, so they may want to preserve him for a long season and to avoid another early playoff exit if they make it (2-0 = 63%).
If Hill keeps coughing it up multiple times that will be very problematic, but he had 5 fumbles as a rookie (though again, only started half the season).
For perspective, some fumble numbers for other RBs early in their career:
Peterson - 20 first three years
Sanders - 19 first three years
Smith - 15 first two years
Campbell - 31 first four years
Dickerson - 49 first four years!!! (and he had the best first two season rushing totals in NFL history)
Walter Payton - 30 first three years
Gale Sayers - 19 first three years
Jim Brown - 23 first four years
In the offseason, OC Jackson alluded to Hill having star potential, I'm not sure he said that about Bernard.
Bernard ran well, but in his first two seasons, he averaged 4.1 and 4.0 Y/C. There is a perception by some that he is special, but it isn't really supported by the numbers. It wasn't an accident that Hill beat him out decisively in the second half of the season. I think he is the only rookie in league history with four 150+ yard rushing games, and that was basically starting half a season. There are very few VET RBs who have surpassed that, with five or more 150+ yard rushing games, almost all of them are Hall of Famers, started significantly more games, and didn't do it for the most part until being in the league for 4-5-6 seasons.
Bernard is only about 207 lbs, Hill about 237 lbs., he is built much better to carry the load. Bernard has shown signs of wearing down with heavy usage, so they may want to preserve him for a long season and to avoid another early playoff exit if they make it (2-0 = 63%).
If Hill keeps coughing it up multiple times that will be very problematic, but he had 5 fumbles as a rookie (though again, only started half the season).
For perspective, some fumble numbers for other RBs early in their career:
Peterson - 20 first three years
Sanders - 19 first three years
Smith - 15 first two years
Campbell - 31 first four years
Dickerson - 49 first four years!!! (and he had the best first two season rushing totals in NFL history)
Walter Payton - 30 first three years
Gale Sayers - 19 first three years
Jim Brown - 23 first four years
In the offseason, OC Jackson alluded to Hill having star potential, I'm not sure he said that about Bernard.
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Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I see a 50-50 split for touches coming up...maybe 60-40.
Demian
Footballguy
Hill fumbled twice and got benched to humble him a bit.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Hill fumbled twice and was totally pulled out of the rotation. Gio was very good. 20 carries 123 yards, another 3 for 16 in the air.
RBM
Footballguy
Just a disaster for Hill. First he got banged up and left for a little bit. Came back in and fumbled twice in a pretty short time span. Bernard took over and looked great.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I was, I guess he didn't understand what I was asking just like I didn't understand his post but unlike him I will remain professional.Thanks for the post.
Tex
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Thanks for the correction on the descriptive dyslexia.I thought you had a question (just noticed your response, not the bolded part above), but wasn't sure it was about the first, second or both points. The first one was pretty straightforward, so I added some detail on the second point. Sorry if you found the phrasing objectionable, not my intent, was just trying to find out what you had a question about.
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Bob,
Unfortunately in fantasy football you can't get points from last year. What have you seen this year that has you excited about Hill?
Unfortunately in fantasy football you can't get points from last year. What have you seen this year that has you excited about Hill?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Update???
ponchsox
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I have both on one of my teams - and at least temporarily I'm shuked as to how things will be at least for a little while.
Bernard can't carry a huge load week in, week out though.
I think Hill gets a good share again next week - but that leash is not long at the moment. Too vital to the offense to be permadoghoused though.
-QG
Bernard can't carry a huge load week in, week out though.
I think Hill gets a good share again next week - but that leash is not long at the moment. Too vital to the offense to be permadoghoused though.
-QG
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I'm a Hill owner without Gio (value went too high in auction), and I'm not panicking. He'll bounce back. This game was the worst case scenario we'll see from Hill (hurt, missed a drive or two, then got benched for two fumbles). If this happens again I'd be worried about Gio getting more looks, but as of right now, I just think it was a bad day for Hill.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Yikes, at least he outscored my Abdullah 0, tough week!
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So?
In a thread about being #1 RB for the year you bring up that many rookies have fumbling problems? How does this help his case? Unlike possibly some of those other teams they have another option that they can throw some carries on and split backfields are way more used in 2015 than in 2005/1995/1985....
In the end Bernard was hurt last year and to think he won't be involved is foolish. I never said Hill was a bum I simply have been on the side he is not #1 overall for RBs. Does anyone still really want to take that bet? I won't even go off points just if there is a redraft on December 1 are you going Hill at 1.01?
cstu
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
So, fumbles are rarely a death blow to great RBs. Personally I don't advise slamming the brakes so hard your foot goes through the floorboard based on an off week. Every RB has off weeks.TDorBust said:
Just because I'm posting in a Hill is #1 thread, doesn't mean I think he is #1. You may be addressing it, and it may be an important point to you, but I think most people are just posting in here as another Hill thread. I don't think most people are having the same conversation you are. If you check the very first post, it wasn't guaranteeing Hill would finish #1, it stated, tell me why he won't. I took the phrasing as intended to start a conversation, suggest that his upside could be greater than suspected, etc. There are no doubt lots of better and less indirect/oblique reasons to think you are right than because others aren't rushing to bet with a random internet stranger. Besides, assuming that bet would be far from even money, shouldn't you be offering appropriate odds to the board at large.
But there is plenty of room to finish short of #1 and do very well. Not just rookies, some of the best RBs ever overcame fumbling problems. If those RBs were playing today, in a RBBC era, and they happened to cede some carries in a game, I still wouldn't advise panicking.
Bernard has never looked as good as Hill at his best, at any point in his career. Not in his rookie year, not before he was hurt last year, not after he was hurt last year. Hill had four 147+ rushing yards in his last nine games as a rookie, something Bernard has failed to do once. He had one career 100 yard rushing game in 30 career games before today.
Bernard's presence would make it difficult to be #1, but again, I don't think that is the conversation most people are having if you look at some of the recent posts. Most seem to be discussing whether Gio will prevent him from being a RB1, not #1 overall. There were people last year that thought it was foolish to think Hill could do well despite Bernard's presence, but it turned out they were wrong.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
He had 2 TDs in two games, and I'm not sure if he finished that second game. Maybe we can agree 1-2 games isn't a significant enough sample to make a definitive statement about it. He did average 5.3 yards per carry as a rookie.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
Hill had TWO 150-yard rushing games as a rookie. He had two others at 140+. That ties him with Curtis Martin. Eric Dickerson did it 5 times.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
"Hill had four 147+ rushing yards in his last nine games as a rookie, something Bernard has failed to do once."
Thanks. I realized the oversight and corrected it in post #288 above. Maybe somewhat of an arbitrary cutoff, but it came up a lot in the other Hill thread, I'm pretty sure Hill is the only rookie RB with four games of 147+ rushing yards. Glad you brought up Dickerson. The fact that Hill did something even Dickerson* didn't, my favorite player at any position, or even if we use the lower 140+ threshold and say he came within one of Dickerson's five such games, is pretty suggestive to me, taking into account Dickerson was one of the greatest RBs ever, had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever at any position (arguably in the top 3, with Marino and Moss), AND Hill only started about half the season - Dickerson started 16.
Even while some are in the process of sussing out how special he might be (or not), there doesn't seem much debate he had a special rookie season, when looking at the scale/scope of his top end achievements, and the comp cohort group.
* His 3,913 yards and 32 TDs rushing the best first two season start ever (also 51-404-2 receiving as a rookie).
Thanks. I realized the oversight and corrected it in post #288 above. Maybe somewhat of an arbitrary cutoff, but it came up a lot in the other Hill thread, I'm pretty sure Hill is the only rookie RB with four games of 147+ rushing yards. Glad you brought up Dickerson. The fact that Hill did something even Dickerson* didn't, my favorite player at any position, or even if we use the lower 140+ threshold and say he came within one of Dickerson's five such games, is pretty suggestive to me, taking into account Dickerson was one of the greatest RBs ever, had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever at any position (arguably in the top 3, with Marino and Moss), AND Hill only started about half the season - Dickerson started 16.
Even while some are in the process of sussing out how special he might be (or not), there doesn't seem much debate he had a special rookie season, when looking at the scale/scope of his top end achievements, and the comp cohort group.
* His 3,913 yards and 32 TDs rushing the best first two season start ever (also 51-404-2 receiving as a rookie).
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Perhaps the outlier nature of the stats you are talking about in regards to Hill last season are not good points of reference for what one should expect of him going forward Bob.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Research by another poster (#1986 from the other thread)
jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season
jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries
jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries
jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards
who would you have to be to better that number?
who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?
Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)
Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)
Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)
Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)
Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)
Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)
O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)
Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)
Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)
Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)
Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)
O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)
jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season
jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries
jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries
jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards
who would you have to be to better that number?
who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?
Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)
Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)
Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)
Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)
Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)
Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)
O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)
Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)
Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)
Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)
Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)
O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Those guys have at least one of elite athleticism, vision, or elusiveness and that's why they were able to sustain their production. Imo Hill lacks all 3 of those.
dagwood
Footballguy
Hill will get most of the goal line touchesSerious question: did you watch the game?
If you did, you would know that Bernard is a threat to Hill's touches.
Bernard will get most of the pass receptions
they will share carries between the 20's
Given their draft position, that will make the people who picked Bernard very happy and the people who picked Hill very sad.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Chris Wesseling off-season scouting report.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000496517/article/jeremy-hill-bengals-offense-better-than-you-think
Rookie highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M40Oysdsu_M
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000496517/article/jeremy-hill-bengals-offense-better-than-you-think
Rookie highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M40Oysdsu_M
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addicted2ff
Footballguy
Yeah, I see capable NFL starter taking advantage of nice holes against bottom barrel defenses in those clips, not future HOFer.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
As noted in response above, I don't think he is #1, why bet in that case?
Other people are using this as a generic thread to discuss Hill's traits, attributes, prospects, etc. That is the conversation they are having. Heckling the thread with repeated, "Wanna bet, wanna bet, wanna bet?" challenges isn't part of that conversation.
BTW, As of 8-20, Bovada had Hill handicapped as 7th most likely, at 11/1. You seem keen on betting, why not try a sports book like most people? I'm not sure from previous exchanges if you grasped this isn't an even money proposition. If you aren't sure how the odds work, just ask the sports book. Good luck to you.
