Jets decision to go for it on 4th and goal (1 Viewer)

[Assani Fisher]

I thought at the time that this was a horrible call, and I think it cost them the game. Here was one line of thought:

Basic lesson here:Jets don't go for FG a LONG time ago. Don't make it.Tons of scoring goes on, on both teams after.If they lose by 3 that in NO WAY reflects on a FG because BOTH teams would have played different kind of ball if they had made the FG!!!

But I very much disagree with this here. Here is the game log after that score:Indianapolis Colts at 04:31 1-10-IND20 (4:31) J.Addai right end to IND 21 for 1 yard (E.Barton). 2-9-IND21 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to B.Utecht pushed ob at IND 28 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). IND-B.Utecht was injured during the play. 3-2-IND28 (3:40) J.Addai right tackle to IND 35 for 7 yards (S.Ellis, E.Coleman). 1-10-IND35 (3:10) (No Huddle) J.Addai left guard to IND 40 for 5 yards (E.Barton). 2-5-IND40 (2:42) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to IND 49 for 9 yards (A.Dyson, E.Coleman). 1-10-IND49 (2:12) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to D.Clark. 2-10-IND49 (2:07) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, E.Barton). 1-10-NYJ41 (1:37) (No Huddle) J.Addai right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (V.Hobson, B.Hamilton). 2-5-NYJ36 (1:05) (No Huddle) J.Addai up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (B.Thomas, J.Vilma). 3-1-NYJ32 29) PENALTY on IND-J.Scott, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play. 3-6-NYJ37 06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 14 yards (K.Rhodes). Fourth Quarter Indianapolis Colts continued... 1-10-NYJ23 (15:00) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 7 for 16 yards (J.Miller). 1-7-NYJ7 (14:25) (No Huddle) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (J.Miller). 2-1-NYJ1 (13:44) D.Rhodes up the middle to NYJ 1 for no gain (D.Robertson). 3-1-NYJ1 (13:12) (Shotgun) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (S.Ellis). Penalty on IND-C.Johnson, Illegal Substitution, declined. 4-2-NYJ2 (13:02) M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 17 NYJ 14, Plays: 15 Yards: 78 Possession: 6:33. Indianapolis Colts at 12:58 M.Gramatica kicks 52 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 18. M.Chatham to NYJ 38 for 20 yards (T.Jennings, F.Keiaho). New York Jets at 12:51 1-10-NYJ38 (12:51) L.Washington left tackle to NYJ 44 for 6 yards (M.Doss). 2-4-NYJ44 (12:19) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles to IND 48 for 8 yards (K.Hayden). 1-10-IND48 (11:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left tackle to IND 41 for 7 yards (G.Gardner). 2-3-IND41 (11:12) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to J.McCareins (J.David). 3-3-IND41 (11:07) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short left to L.Coles pushed ob at IND 31 for 10 yards (A.Bethea). 1-10-IND31 (10:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 25 for 6 yards (B.Schobel). 2-4-IND25 (10:11) (No Huddle) L.Washington right guard to IND 23 for 2 yards (J.Thomas, R.LaCasse). 3-2-IND23 (9:26) (No Huddle) B.Askew left guard to IND 18 for 5 yards (G.Brackett). 1-10-IND18 (9:11) L.Washington right guard to IND 13 for 5 yards (M.Reagor, G.Brackett). 2-5-IND13 (8:49) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 10 for 3 yards (G.Gardner, R.Brock). 3-2-IND10 (8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete short left to L.Coles. PENALTY on IND-M.Doss, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10 - No Play. 1-5-IND5 (7:55) K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham. IND 17 NYJ 21, Plays: 11 Yards: 62 Possession: 5:03. New York Jets at 07:55 M.Nugent kicks 56 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 14. T.Wilkins to IND 32 for 18 yards (C.Spencer, E.Smith). Indianapolis Colts at 07:50 1-10-IND32 (7:50) P.Manning pass short middle to J.Addai to IND 38 for 6 yards (V.Hobson). 2-4-IND38 (7:23) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to IND 44 for 6 yards (K.Von Oelhoffen). 1-10-IND44 (6:49) J.Addai right tackle to IND 46 for 2 yards (J.Vilma, D.Robertson). 2-8-IND46 (6:15) J.Addai right tackle to IND 48 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, E.Barton). 3-6-IND48 (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to D.Clark to NYJ 42 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, B.Thomas). 1-10-NYJ42 (5:08) (No Huddle) J.Addai right end to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (S.Ellis, J.Vilma). 2-6-NYJ38 (4:34) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). 1-10-NYJ31 (4:03) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 20 for 11 yards. 1-10-NYJ20 (3:56) (No Huddle) J.Addai left end to NYJ 5 for 15 yards (K.Rhodes). PENALTY on IND-T.Glenn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20 - No Play. 1-20-NYJ30 (3:48) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne (J.Miller). 2-20-NYJ30 (3:40) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne. PENALTY on NYJ-J.Miller, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play. 1-8-NYJ8 (3:34) J.Addai left guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (J.Vilma, K.Rhodes). 2-4-NYJ4 (3:09) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, K.Rhodes). 3-2-NYJ2 (2:40) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 24 NYJ 21, Plays: 12 Yards: 68 Possession: 5:21. Indianapolis Colts at 02:34 M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. New York Jets at 02:20 M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham. IND 24 NYJ 28 New York Jets at 02:20 M.Nugent kicks 60 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 10. T.Wilkins to IND 39 for 29 yards (R.Washington). Indianapolis Colts at 02:15 1-10-IND39 (2:15) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to J.Addai to IND 44 for 5 yards (E.Barton, B.Thomas). 2-5-IND44 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher ran ob at 50 for 6 yards. 1-10-50 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 11 yards (D.Strait). 1-10-NYJ39 (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to D.Clark to NYJ 35 for 4 yards. 2-6-NYJ35 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to R.Wayne (K.Rhodes). 3-6-NYJ35 (1:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass deep right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 16 for 19 yards. 1-10-NYJ16 (1:19) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to D.Clark. 2-10-NYJ16 (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 15 yards (J.Miller). 1-1-NYJ1 50) (No Huddle) P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 31 NYJ 28, Plays: 9 Yards: 61 Possession: 1:30. Indianapolis Colts at 00:50 M.Gramatica kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 0. L.Washington to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (M.Giordano, R.Morris). New York Jets at 00:47 1-10-NYJ2 47) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to T.Dwight to NYJ 11 for 9 yards (T.Jennings, K.Hayden). 2-1-NYJ11 26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to J.Cotchery to NYJ 25 for 14 yards (C.June). 1-10-NYJ25 19) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles ran ob at NYJ 32 for 7 yards (K.Hayden). 2-3-NYJ32 14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to J.Cotchery (K.Hayden). 3-3-NYJ32 08) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to L.Washington to NYJ 38 for 6 yards [D.Freeney]. NYJ-L.Coles was injured during the play. My contention is that the game would've played out the same way even if the Jets did score a FG there. Lets recap:On the next possession, the Colts got down to the 2 yard line. Even if the Jets were up 3, the Colts still would've kicked the FG to tie the game.So now we have a tie game.Next possession Jets score a TD. Obviously they still would've done this regardless of the score.Then the Colts score a TD. Then the Jets score a TD. Then the Colts score a TD. I believe that all of this would've happened the same way, as each team's motives would've been the same regardless of if the score was what it was or if the Jets had 3 more points.I understand RKMoney's point. But its not applicable here. That point is applicable in such a scenario where if you change one result it would've therefore changed a team's decision on whether or not to kick a FG, hurry up the offense due to being behing, go for it on 4th down due to being behind, etc. But in this scenario each team would've played the exact same way. Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I thought at the time that this was a horrible call, and I think it cost them the game. Here was one line of thought:

Basic lesson here:Jets don't go for FG a LONG time ago. Don't make it.Tons of scoring goes on, on both teams after.If they lose by 3 that in NO WAY reflects on a FG because BOTH teams would have played different kind of ball if they had made the FG!!!

But I very much disagree with this here. Here is the game log after that score:Indianapolis Colts at 04:31 1-10-IND20 (4:31) J.Addai right end to IND 21 for 1 yard (E.Barton). 2-9-IND21 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to B.Utecht pushed ob at IND 28 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). IND-B.Utecht was injured during the play. 3-2-IND28 (3:40) J.Addai right tackle to IND 35 for 7 yards (S.Ellis, E.Coleman). 1-10-IND35 (3:10) (No Huddle) J.Addai left guard to IND 40 for 5 yards (E.Barton). 2-5-IND40 (2:42) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to IND 49 for 9 yards (A.Dyson, E.Coleman). 1-10-IND49 (2:12) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to D.Clark. 2-10-IND49 (2:07) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, E.Barton). 1-10-NYJ41 (1:37) (No Huddle) J.Addai right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (V.Hobson, B.Hamilton). 2-5-NYJ36 (1:05) (No Huddle) J.Addai up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (B.Thomas, J.Vilma). 3-1-NYJ32 29) PENALTY on IND-J.Scott, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play. 3-6-NYJ37 06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 14 yards (K.Rhodes). Fourth Quarter Indianapolis Colts continued... 1-10-NYJ23 (15:00) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 7 for 16 yards (J.Miller). 1-7-NYJ7 (14:25) (No Huddle) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (J.Miller). 2-1-NYJ1 (13:44) D.Rhodes up the middle to NYJ 1 for no gain (D.Robertson). 3-1-NYJ1 (13:12) (Shotgun) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (S.Ellis). Penalty on IND-C.Johnson, Illegal Substitution, declined. 4-2-NYJ2 (13:02) M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 17 NYJ 14, Plays: 15 Yards: 78 Possession: 6:33. Indianapolis Colts at 12:58 M.Gramatica kicks 52 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 18. M.Chatham to NYJ 38 for 20 yards (T.Jennings, F.Keiaho). New York Jets at 12:51 1-10-NYJ38 (12:51) L.Washington left tackle to NYJ 44 for 6 yards (M.Doss). 2-4-NYJ44 (12:19) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles to IND 48 for 8 yards (K.Hayden). 1-10-IND48 (11:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left tackle to IND 41 for 7 yards (G.Gardner). 2-3-IND41 (11:12) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to J.McCareins (J.David). 3-3-IND41 (11:07) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short left to L.Coles pushed ob at IND 31 for 10 yards (A.Bethea). 1-10-IND31 (10:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 25 for 6 yards (B.Schobel). 2-4-IND25 (10:11) (No Huddle) L.Washington right guard to IND 23 for 2 yards (J.Thomas, R.LaCasse). 3-2-IND23 (9:26) (No Huddle) B.Askew left guard to IND 18 for 5 yards (G.Brackett). 1-10-IND18 (9:11) L.Washington right guard to IND 13 for 5 yards (M.Reagor, G.Brackett). 2-5-IND13 (8:49) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 10 for 3 yards (G.Gardner, R.Brock). 3-2-IND10 (8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete short left to L.Coles. PENALTY on IND-M.Doss, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10 - No Play. 1-5-IND5 (7:55) K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham. IND 17 NYJ 21, Plays: 11 Yards: 62 Possession: 5:03. New York Jets at 07:55 M.Nugent kicks 56 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 14. T.Wilkins to IND 32 for 18 yards (C.Spencer, E.Smith). Indianapolis Colts at 07:50 1-10-IND32 (7:50) P.Manning pass short middle to J.Addai to IND 38 for 6 yards (V.Hobson). 2-4-IND38 (7:23) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to IND 44 for 6 yards (K.Von Oelhoffen). 1-10-IND44 (6:49) J.Addai right tackle to IND 46 for 2 yards (J.Vilma, D.Robertson). 2-8-IND46 (6:15) J.Addai right tackle to IND 48 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, E.Barton). 3-6-IND48 (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to D.Clark to NYJ 42 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, B.Thomas). 1-10-NYJ42 (5:08) (No Huddle) J.Addai right end to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (S.Ellis, J.Vilma). 2-6-NYJ38 (4:34) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). 1-10-NYJ31 (4:03) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 20 for 11 yards. 1-10-NYJ20 (3:56) (No Huddle) J.Addai left end to NYJ 5 for 15 yards (K.Rhodes). PENALTY on IND-T.Glenn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20 - No Play. 1-20-NYJ30 (3:48) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne (J.Miller). 2-20-NYJ30 (3:40) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne. PENALTY on NYJ-J.Miller, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play. 1-8-NYJ8 (3:34) J.Addai left guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (J.Vilma, K.Rhodes). 2-4-NYJ4 (3:09) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, K.Rhodes). 3-2-NYJ2 (2:40) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 24 NYJ 21, Plays: 12 Yards: 68 Possession: 5:21. Indianapolis Colts at 02:34 M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. New York Jets at 02:20 M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham. IND 24 NYJ 28 New York Jets at 02:20 M.Nugent kicks 60 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 10. T.Wilkins to IND 39 for 29 yards (R.Washington). Indianapolis Colts at 02:15 1-10-IND39 (2:15) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to J.Addai to IND 44 for 5 yards (E.Barton, B.Thomas). 2-5-IND44 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher ran ob at 50 for 6 yards. 1-10-50 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 11 yards (D.Strait). 1-10-NYJ39 (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to D.Clark to NYJ 35 for 4 yards. 2-6-NYJ35 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to R.Wayne (K.Rhodes). 3-6-NYJ35 (1:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass deep right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 16 for 19 yards. 1-10-NYJ16 (1:19) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to D.Clark. 2-10-NYJ16 (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 15 yards (J.Miller). 1-1-NYJ1 50) (No Huddle) P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith. IND 31 NYJ 28, Plays: 9 Yards: 61 Possession: 1:30. Indianapolis Colts at 00:50 M.Gramatica kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 0. L.Washington to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (M.Giordano, R.Morris). New York Jets at 00:47 1-10-NYJ2 47) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to T.Dwight to NYJ 11 for 9 yards (T.Jennings, K.Hayden). 2-1-NYJ11 26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to J.Cotchery to NYJ 25 for 14 yards (C.June). 1-10-NYJ25 19) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles ran ob at NYJ 32 for 7 yards (K.Hayden). 2-3-NYJ32 14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to J.Cotchery (K.Hayden). 3-3-NYJ32 08) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to L.Washington to NYJ 38 for 6 yards [D.Freeney]. NYJ-L.Coles was injured during the play. My contention is that the game would've played out the same way even if the Jets did score a FG there. Lets recap:On the next possession, the Colts got down to the 2 yard line. Even if the Jets were up 3, the Colts still would've kicked the FG to tie the game.So now we have a tie game.Next possession Jets score a TD. Obviously they still would've done this regardless of the score.Then the Colts score a TD. Then the Jets score a TD. Then the Colts score a TD. I believe that all of this would've happened the same way, as each team's motives would've been the same regardless of if the score was what it was or if the Jets had 3 more points.I understand RKMoney's point. But its not applicable here. That point is applicable in such a scenario where if you change one result it would've therefore changed a team's decision on whether or not to kick a FG, hurry up the offense due to being behing, go for it on 4th down due to being behind, etc. But in this scenario each team would've played the exact same way. Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

And based on that logic, if the Jets had scored a TD, the game would be over.I'd say the chances of the Jets winning in OT is pretty equivalent to the Jets' chances of scoring from the 2 yard line. Mangini made the right call, but I'm staying out of this thread. The EV play there is to go for it, and I'm glad the Jets have a HC that will make those type of calls.

 

[RKMoney]

what if they miss the FG?

What if FG was blocked and returned for a TD by Indy?

You need to ask the Jets and Indy coaches how they would have handles their call playing if they had made the FG.

Again, it's simply a moronic statement to say because earlier in the game if a team doesn't kick the FG in this situation and lose by 3 it would have been different.

Finally, even giving Jets the extra 3, the game would have been tied and Indy still could have won in OT.

 

[RKMoney]

I thought at the time that this was a horrible call, and I think it cost them the game. Here was one line of thought:

Basic lesson here:

Jets don't go for FG a LONG time ago. Don't make it.

Tons of scoring goes on, on both teams after.

If they lose by 3 that in NO WAY reflects on a FG because BOTH teams would have played different kind of ball if they had made the FG!!!

But I very much disagree with this here. Here is the game log after that score:Indianapolis Colts at 04:31

1-10-IND20 (4:31) J.Addai right end to IND 21 for 1 yard (E.Barton).

2-9-IND21 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to B.Utecht pushed ob at IND 28 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). IND-B.Utecht was injured during the play.

3-2-IND28 (3:40) J.Addai right tackle to IND 35 for 7 yards (S.Ellis, E.Coleman).

1-10-IND35 (3:10) (No Huddle) J.Addai left guard to IND 40 for 5 yards (E.Barton).

2-5-IND40 (2:42) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to IND 49 for 9 yards (A.Dyson, E.Coleman).

1-10-IND49 (2:12) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to D.Clark.

2-10-IND49 (2:07) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, E.Barton).

1-10-NYJ41 (1:37) (No Huddle) J.Addai right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (V.Hobson, B.Hamilton).

2-5-NYJ36 (1:05) (No Huddle) J.Addai up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (B.Thomas, J.Vilma).

3-1-NYJ32 29) PENALTY on IND-J.Scott, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play.

3-6-NYJ37 06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 14 yards (K.Rhodes).

Fourth Quarter

Indianapolis Colts continued...

1-10-NYJ23 (15:00) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 7 for 16 yards (J.Miller).

1-7-NYJ7 (14:25) (No Huddle) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (J.Miller).

2-1-NYJ1 (13:44) D.Rhodes up the middle to NYJ 1 for no gain (D.Robertson).

3-1-NYJ1 (13:12) (Shotgun) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (S.Ellis). Penalty on IND-C.Johnson, Illegal Substitution, declined.

4-2-NYJ2 (13:02) M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 17 NYJ 14, Plays: 15 Yards: 78 Possession: 6:33.

Indianapolis Colts at 12:58

M.Gramatica kicks 52 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 18. M.Chatham to NYJ 38 for 20 yards (T.Jennings, F.Keiaho).

New York Jets at 12:51

1-10-NYJ38 (12:51) L.Washington left tackle to NYJ 44 for 6 yards (M.Doss).

2-4-NYJ44 (12:19) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles to IND 48 for 8 yards (K.Hayden).

1-10-IND48 (11:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left tackle to IND 41 for 7 yards (G.Gardner).

2-3-IND41 (11:12) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to J.McCareins (J.David).

3-3-IND41 (11:07) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short left to L.Coles pushed ob at IND 31 for 10 yards (A.Bethea).

1-10-IND31 (10:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 25 for 6 yards (B.Schobel).

2-4-IND25 (10:11) (No Huddle) L.Washington right guard to IND 23 for 2 yards (J.Thomas, R.LaCasse).

3-2-IND23 (9:26) (No Huddle) B.Askew left guard to IND 18 for 5 yards (G.Brackett).

1-10-IND18 (9:11) L.Washington right guard to IND 13 for 5 yards (M.Reagor, G.Brackett).

2-5-IND13 (8:49) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 10 for 3 yards (G.Gardner, R.Brock).

3-2-IND10 (8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete short left to L.Coles.

PENALTY on IND-M.Doss, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10 - No Play.

1-5-IND5 (7:55) K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham.

IND 17 NYJ 21, Plays: 11 Yards: 62 Possession: 5:03.

New York Jets at 07:55

M.Nugent kicks 56 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 14. T.Wilkins to IND 32 for 18 yards (C.Spencer, E.Smith).

Indianapolis Colts at 07:50

1-10-IND32 (7:50) P.Manning pass short middle to J.Addai to IND 38 for 6 yards (V.Hobson).

2-4-IND38 (7:23) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to IND 44 for 6 yards (K.Von Oelhoffen).

1-10-IND44 (6:49) J.Addai right tackle to IND 46 for 2 yards (J.Vilma, D.Robertson).

2-8-IND46 (6:15) J.Addai right tackle to IND 48 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, E.Barton).

3-6-IND48 (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to D.Clark to NYJ 42 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, B.Thomas).

1-10-NYJ42 (5:08) (No Huddle) J.Addai right end to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (S.Ellis, J.Vilma).

2-6-NYJ38 (4:34) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (A.Dyson).

1-10-NYJ31 (4:03) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 20 for 11 yards.

1-10-NYJ20 (3:56) (No Huddle) J.Addai left end to NYJ 5 for 15 yards (K.Rhodes).

PENALTY on IND-T.Glenn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20 - No Play.

1-20-NYJ30 (3:48) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne (J.Miller).

2-20-NYJ30 (3:40) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne.

PENALTY on NYJ-J.Miller, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.

1-8-NYJ8 (3:34) J.Addai left guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (J.Vilma, K.Rhodes).

2-4-NYJ4 (3:09) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, K.Rhodes).

3-2-NYJ2 (2:40) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 24 NYJ 21, Plays: 12 Yards: 68 Possession: 5:21.

Indianapolis Colts at 02:34

M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

New York Jets at 02:20

M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham.

IND 24 NYJ 28

New York Jets at 02:20

M.Nugent kicks 60 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 10. T.Wilkins to IND 39 for 29 yards (R.Washington).

Indianapolis Colts at 02:15

1-10-IND39 (2:15) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to J.Addai to IND 44 for 5 yards (E.Barton, B.Thomas).

2-5-IND44 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher ran ob at 50 for 6 yards.

1-10-50 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 11 yards (D.Strait).

1-10-NYJ39 (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to D.Clark to NYJ 35 for 4 yards.

2-6-NYJ35 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to R.Wayne (K.Rhodes).

3-6-NYJ35 (1:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass deep right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 16 for 19 yards.

1-10-NYJ16 (1:19) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to D.Clark.

2-10-NYJ16 (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 15 yards (J.Miller).

1-1-NYJ1 50) (No Huddle) P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 31 NYJ 28, Plays: 9 Yards: 61 Possession: 1:30.

Indianapolis Colts at 00:50

M.Gramatica kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 0. L.Washington to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (M.Giordano, R.Morris).

New York Jets at 00:47

1-10-NYJ2 47) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to T.Dwight to NYJ 11 for 9 yards (T.Jennings, K.Hayden).

2-1-NYJ11 26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to J.Cotchery to NYJ 25 for 14 yards (C.June).

1-10-NYJ25 19) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles ran ob at NYJ 32 for 7 yards (K.Hayden).

2-3-NYJ32 14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to J.Cotchery (K.Hayden).

3-3-NYJ32 08) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to L.Washington to NYJ 38 for 6 yards [D.Freeney]. NYJ-L.Coles was injured during the play.

My contention is that the game would've played out the same way even if the Jets did score a FG there. Lets recap:

On the next possession, the Colts got down to the 2 yard line. Even if the Jets were up 3, the Colts still would've kicked the FG to tie the game.

So now we have a tie game.

Next possession Jets score a TD. Obviously they still would've done this regardless of the score.

Then the Colts score a TD. Then the Jets score a TD. Then the Colts score a TD. I believe that all of this would've happened the same way, as each team's motives would've been the same regardless of if the score was what it was or if the Jets had 3 more points.

I understand RKMoney's point. But its not applicable here. That point is applicable in such a scenario where if you change one result it would've therefore changed a team's decision on whether or not to kick a FG, hurry up the offense due to being behing, go for it on 4th down due to being behind, etc. But in this scenario each team would've played the exact same way.

Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

And based on that logic, if the Jets had scored a TD, the game would be over.

I'd say the chances of the Jets winning in OT is pretty equivalent to the Jets' chances of scoring from the 2 yard line.

Mangini made the right call, but I'm staying out of this thread. The EV play there is to go for it, and I'm glad the Jets have a HC that will make those type of calls.

 

[Spartans Rule]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

 

[LBH]

I liked the call before the failed conversion. Its nice to see some dice rolling. The Jets are showing they are much better than the pre season rankings

 

[Jene Bramel]

I don't necessarily disagree with the decision. I'd have kicked, but that's because the short yardage efforts had been shaky to that point.

Not that the Colts couldn't have driven 98 yards, but much of the value in NOT scoring a TD there derived from pinning the Colts back. The worst case scenario there is throwing the pick -- have to be disciplined enough to put that ball where only your player can get his hands on it.

 

[bostonfred]

Could everyone please keep quoting the longest post in the thread? Thanks.

I think the Jets should have kicked the field goal against Indy. If they were struggling on offense, if they had been completely unable to stop the Colts, if this was their first time on the goal line, or if this was against almost anyone but Manning and the Colts, I'd agree with going for it. But the Jets were moving the ball well, had a chance to go ahead in the game, had been to the goal line twice already and were moving the ball well, and giving the Colts the ball on the 1 isn't nearly as good as giving most teams the ball on the 1 because they are such an effective offense. I think it was a mistake, and I said so at the time.

 

[Assani Fisher]

what if they miss the FG?

What if FG was blocked and returned for a TD by Indy?

You need to ask the Jets and Indy coaches how they would have handles their call playing if they had made the FG.

Again, it's simply a moronic statement to say because earlier in the game if a team doesn't kick the FG in this situation and lose by 3 it would have been different.

Finally, even giving Jets the extra 3, the game would have been tied and Indy still could have won in OT.

No, you're missing my point! 99% of the time, your point is valid. But in this case, even if the Jets had made the FG, each team would've been in the exact same position of what they needed to accomplish with each drive, so they would've played it the same. Did you read my post at all?

 

[Spartans Rule]

I don't necessarily disagree with the decision. I'd have kicked, but that's because the short yardage efforts had been shaky to that point.Not that the Colts couldn't have driven 98 yards, but much of the value in NOT scoring a TD there derived from pinning the Colts back. The worst case scenario there is throwing the pick -- have to be disciplined enough to put that ball where only your player can get his hands on it.

Putting the ball where only your player can get his hands on it wasn't an option as the play developed. Pennington had to force that in there - the possibility of getting a TD, even if it was slim, far outweighs the risk of giving up 18 yards of field position.

 

[TLEF316]

i like the call. The jets D has folded down the stretch all year. It sucks to leave points on the board, but i love the gamble. Just didnt go our way.

And thats not the reason the jets lost. Almost no pass rush and some amazing plays by manning are what cost the jets the game. And even with all that, if that tipped pass goes 1 foot further, Vilma intercepts it and the jets win anyway. This loss hurts so bad, but i still like the call to go for it.

Now, if coles is seriously hurt, im gonna start drinking very heavily.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I thought at the time that this was a horrible call, and I think it cost them the game. Here was one line of thought:

Basic lesson here:

Jets don't go for FG a LONG time ago. Don't make it.

Tons of scoring goes on, on both teams after.

If they lose by 3 that in NO WAY reflects on a FG because BOTH teams would have played different kind of ball if they had made the FG!!!

But I very much disagree with this here. Here is the game log after that score:Indianapolis Colts at 04:31

1-10-IND20 (4:31) J.Addai right end to IND 21 for 1 yard (E.Barton).

2-9-IND21 (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to B.Utecht pushed ob at IND 28 for 7 yards (A.Dyson). IND-B.Utecht was injured during the play.

3-2-IND28 (3:40) J.Addai right tackle to IND 35 for 7 yards (S.Ellis, E.Coleman).

1-10-IND35 (3:10) (No Huddle) J.Addai left guard to IND 40 for 5 yards (E.Barton).

2-5-IND40 (2:42) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to IND 49 for 9 yards (A.Dyson, E.Coleman).

1-10-IND49 (2:12) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to D.Clark.

2-10-IND49 (2:07) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, E.Barton).

1-10-NYJ41 (1:37) (No Huddle) J.Addai right tackle to NYJ 36 for 5 yards (V.Hobson, B.Hamilton).

2-5-NYJ36 (1:05) (No Huddle) J.Addai up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (B.Thomas, J.Vilma).

3-1-NYJ32 29) PENALTY on IND-J.Scott, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 32 - No Play.

3-6-NYJ37 06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 14 yards (K.Rhodes).

Fourth Quarter

Indianapolis Colts continued...

1-10-NYJ23 (15:00) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 7 for 16 yards (J.Miller).

1-7-NYJ7 (14:25) (No Huddle) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (J.Miller).

2-1-NYJ1 (13:44) D.Rhodes up the middle to NYJ 1 for no gain (D.Robertson).

3-1-NYJ1 (13:12) (Shotgun) D.Rhodes left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (S.Ellis). Penalty on IND-C.Johnson, Illegal Substitution, declined.

4-2-NYJ2 (13:02) M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 17 NYJ 14, Plays: 15 Yards: 78 Possession: 6:33.

Indianapolis Colts at 12:58

M.Gramatica kicks 52 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 18. M.Chatham to NYJ 38 for 20 yards (T.Jennings, F.Keiaho).

New York Jets at 12:51

1-10-NYJ38 (12:51) L.Washington left tackle to NYJ 44 for 6 yards (M.Doss).

2-4-NYJ44 (12:19) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles to IND 48 for 8 yards (K.Hayden).

1-10-IND48 (11:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left tackle to IND 41 for 7 yards (G.Gardner).

2-3-IND41 (11:12) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to J.McCareins (J.David).

3-3-IND41 (11:07) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short left to L.Coles pushed ob at IND 31 for 10 yards (A.Bethea).

1-10-IND31 (10:44) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 25 for 6 yards (B.Schobel).

2-4-IND25 (10:11) (No Huddle) L.Washington right guard to IND 23 for 2 yards (J.Thomas, R.LaCasse).

3-2-IND23 (9:26) (No Huddle) B.Askew left guard to IND 18 for 5 yards (G.Brackett).

1-10-IND18 (9:11) L.Washington right guard to IND 13 for 5 yards (M.Reagor, G.Brackett).

2-5-IND13 (8:49) (No Huddle) L.Washington left guard to IND 10 for 3 yards (G.Gardner, R.Brock).

3-2-IND10 (8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete short left to L.Coles.

PENALTY on IND-M.Doss, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10 - No Play.

1-5-IND5 (7:55) K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham.

IND 17 NYJ 21, Plays: 11 Yards: 62 Possession: 5:03.

New York Jets at 07:55

M.Nugent kicks 56 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 14. T.Wilkins to IND 32 for 18 yards (C.Spencer, E.Smith).

Indianapolis Colts at 07:50

1-10-IND32 (7:50) P.Manning pass short middle to J.Addai to IND 38 for 6 yards (V.Hobson).

2-4-IND38 (7:23) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to IND 44 for 6 yards (K.Von Oelhoffen).

1-10-IND44 (6:49) J.Addai right tackle to IND 46 for 2 yards (J.Vilma, D.Robertson).

2-8-IND46 (6:15) J.Addai right tackle to IND 48 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, E.Barton).

3-6-IND48 (5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to D.Clark to NYJ 42 for 10 yards (K.Rhodes, B.Thomas).

1-10-NYJ42 (5:08) (No Huddle) J.Addai right end to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (S.Ellis, J.Vilma).

2-6-NYJ38 (4:34) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (A.Dyson).

1-10-NYJ31 (4:03) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 20 for 11 yards.

1-10-NYJ20 (3:56) (No Huddle) J.Addai left end to NYJ 5 for 15 yards (K.Rhodes).

PENALTY on IND-T.Glenn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20 - No Play.

1-20-NYJ30 (3:48) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne (J.Miller).

2-20-NYJ30 (3:40) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to R.Wayne.

PENALTY on NYJ-J.Miller, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.

1-8-NYJ8 (3:34) J.Addai left guard to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (J.Vilma, K.Rhodes).

2-4-NYJ4 (3:09) (No Huddle) J.Addai left tackle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (D.Robertson, K.Rhodes).

3-2-NYJ2 (2:40) (No Huddle) P.Manning pass short right to B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 24 NYJ 21, Plays: 12 Yards: 68 Possession: 5:21.

Indianapolis Colts at 02:34

M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

New York Jets at 02:20

M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Dearth, Holder-B.Graham.

IND 24 NYJ 28

New York Jets at 02:20

M.Nugent kicks 60 yards from NYJ 30 to IND 10. T.Wilkins to IND 39 for 29 yards (R.Washington).

Indianapolis Colts at 02:15

1-10-IND39 (2:15) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to J.Addai to IND 44 for 5 yards (E.Barton, B.Thomas).

2-5-IND44 (2:00) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher ran ob at 50 for 6 yards.

1-10-50 (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to B.Fletcher pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 11 yards (D.Strait).

1-10-NYJ39 (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short right to D.Clark to NYJ 35 for 4 yards.

2-6-NYJ35 (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to R.Wayne (K.Rhodes).

3-6-NYJ35 (1:26) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass deep right to M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 16 for 19 yards.

1-10-NYJ16 (1:19) P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to D.Clark.

2-10-NYJ16 (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 15 yards (J.Miller).

1-1-NYJ1 50) (No Huddle) P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Snow, Holder-H.Smith.

IND 31 NYJ 28, Plays: 9 Yards: 61 Possession: 1:30.

Indianapolis Colts at 00:50

M.Gramatica kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to NYJ 0. L.Washington to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (M.Giordano, R.Morris).

New York Jets at 00:47

1-10-NYJ2 47) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to T.Dwight to NYJ 11 for 9 yards (T.Jennings, K.Hayden).

2-1-NYJ11 26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to J.Cotchery to NYJ 25 for 14 yards (C.June).

1-10-NYJ25 19) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right to L.Coles ran ob at NYJ 32 for 7 yards (K.Hayden).

2-3-NYJ32 14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to J.Cotchery (K.Hayden).

3-3-NYJ32 08) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short middle to L.Washington to NYJ 38 for 6 yards [D.Freeney]. NYJ-L.Coles was injured during the play.

My contention is that the game would've played out the same way even if the Jets did score a FG there. Lets recap:

On the next possession, the Colts got down to the 2 yard line. Even if the Jets were up 3, the Colts still would've kicked the FG to tie the game.

So now we have a tie game.

Next possession Jets score a TD. Obviously they still would've done this regardless of the score.

Then the Colts score a TD. Then the Jets score a TD. Then the Colts score a TD. I believe that all of this would've happened the same way, as each team's motives would've been the same regardless of if the score was what it was or if the Jets had 3 more points.

I understand RKMoney's point. But its not applicable here. That point is applicable in such a scenario where if you change one result it would've therefore changed a team's decision on whether or not to kick a FG, hurry up the offense due to being behing, go for it on 4th down due to being behind, etc. But in this scenario each team would've played the exact same way.

Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

And based on that logic, if the Jets had scored a TD, the game would be over.

I'd say the chances of the Jets winning in OT is pretty equivalent to the Jets' chances of scoring from the 2 yard line.

Mangini made the right call, but I'm staying out of this thread. The EV play there is to go for it, and I'm glad the Jets have a HC that will make those type of calls.

No! Wow, its hard to make you guys understand sometimes.

RKMoney's point was not valid if the Jets had scored a FG because the game would've played out exactly the same.

However, if the Jets had scored a TD there and been up 7, then the game would've played out differently and we don't know how it ended. I already went through how the game went in the OP and compared it to how the game would've gone if the Jets scored a FG. Here I'll outline the Colts next possession for you:

how the game did turn out: On the next possession, Colts drive to the 2 and kick a FG.

how the game would've turned out if the Jets kicked the FG On the next possession, the Colts would've still stalled at the 2 and being down 3 points they obviously would've elected to kick the FG.

how the game would've turned out if the Jets scored a TD on 4th and goal: On the next possession, the Colts drive down to the 2. Now I'm not positive, but being down 7 points I think its very likely that the Colts go for the TD here.

Hence the game would've been totally different if the Jets scored a TD and we don't know what would've happened. But as I've already showned, each teams' motives stayed the same in the first two scenarios throughout the game.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm certain this will be discussed at length here:

http://www.footballcommentary.com/

He does this sort of analysis all the time.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I don't necessarily disagree with the decision. I'd have kicked, but that's because the short yardage efforts had been shaky to that point.

Not that the Colts couldn't have driven 98 yards, but much of the value in NOT scoring a TD there derived from pinning the Colts back. The worst case scenario there is throwing the pick -- have to be disciplined enough to put that ball where only your player can get his hands on it.

Yes, take these factors into consideration also:-The Jets had just failed on two short goalline attempts

-The Jets had just lost their goalline RB to an injury the previous play

-Due to the above two factors, it was completely obvious that they would pass thus negating the impact of play action.

-The Jets defense was playing well.

 

[j3r3m3y]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

A field goal there from the two does not give momentum. A TD would have given momentum.

 

[Assani Fisher]

btw, not to hijack but Peyton Manning is clearly the MVP of the young season so far. Very impressive today, atlhough he did have all day to throw.

 

[PatsWillWin]

The Jets lost the game by letting up 2 TD's within 2 minutes in the last of the 4th quarter.

 

[Spartans Rule]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

A field goal there from the two does not give momentum. A TD would have given momentum.

And zero points on a 16-play drive crushes momentum. It cuts both ways.

 

[Spartans Rule]

btw, not to hijack but Peyton Manning is clearly the MVP of the young season so far. Very impressive today, atlhough he did have all day to throw.

Although I don't think his team is very good. Inability to stop the run will again kill them in the playoffs.

 

[jon_mx]

The Jets gambled all day. Going for it on fourth down twice and an on-side kick. They played the way a team plays that thinks they need help to win the game. It the Jets did not take all those gambles, they still lose. If all ther gambles paid off, the Jets win.

That said, Peyton is great, but with the Colts weak defense, the Colts are not the same team there were last year. Last year the Colts breezed through most games, this year they struggle for victories.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

A field goal there from the two does not give momentum. A TD would have given momentum.

And zero points on a 16-play drive crushes momentum. It cuts both ways.

Not necessarily. According to some commentary on these types of things I read, there is evidence a team will play harder after failing in a situation like that.Blame the decision all you want, the fact of the matter is the Jets allowed 17 points AFTER the failed TD attempt on 4th down.

 

[jevy]

You can't say the game would have played out the same way if the Jets got the FG because you have no idea what would have happened on the ensuing kickoff.

 

[jon_mx]

btw, not to hijack but Peyton Manning is clearly the MVP of the young season so far. Very impressive today, atlhough he did have all day to throw.

Although I don't think his team is very good. Inability to stop the run will again kill them in the playoffs.

Absolutely. The Colts have played two of the worst running teams in the league and made them both look good. The Colts have also played two above average running teams and made them look all-world. The Colts have to address this or they won't be going far. A team like San Diego will kill them.

 

[Reaper]

The Jets lost the game by letting up 2 TD's within 2 minutes in the last of the 4th quarter.

Yup - Funny but, it sounds like most Jet fans liked the call.It's because the shackles of Herm are off this team and it feels good to stretch out a bit.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

You can't say the game would have played out the same way if the Jets got the FG because you have no idea what would have happened on the ensuing kickoff.

Amazing how simple logic like this is missed. There was still 20 minutes left in the game when that play happened. You go with all the available information at the time. You CANNOT predict that the game will come down to a field goal with that much time left. All you can do is analyze your risk vs your chance of success and how much time is left. Mangini thought going for it was the right call.

 

[j3r3m3y]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

A field goal there from the two does not give momentum. A TD would have given momentum.

And zero points on a 16-play drive crushes momentum. It cuts both ways.

Not necessarily. According to some commentary on these types of things I read, there is evidence a team will play harder after failing in a situation like that.Blame the decision all you want, the fact of the matter is the Jets allowed 17 points AFTER the failed TD attempt on 4th down.

Momentum is one of those funny intagibles. Is it possible that failing on fourth down causes momentem to fade? Sure. Is it possible that the coaches just boosted morale by going for it in the first place? Sure.Can we know for sure what "might" have happened. Nope.

 

[Twilight]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

Going way back to the "Hidden Game of Football," going for it on the 2 is definitely the +EV move, mathmatically. Because even if you miss, you still have the other team on the 2, which is very bad odds for the other team to score afterward. I didn't watch the game, but it sounds like a good move to me that didn't work in the long run.

 

[V1LL]

I don't necessarily disagree with the decision. I'd have kicked, but that's because the short yardage efforts had been shaky to that point.

Not that the Colts couldn't have driven 98 yards, but much of the value in NOT scoring a TD there derived from pinning the Colts back. The worst case scenario there is throwing the pick -- have to be disciplined enough to put that ball where only your player can get his hands on it.

Yes, take these factors into consideration also:-The Jets had just failed on two short goalline attempts

-The Jets had just lost their goalline RB to an injury the previous play

-Due to the above two factors, it was completely obvious that they would pass thus negating the impact of play action.

-The Jets defense was playing well.

seems to me Kevan Barlow is the goalline back, no? That said, you take the nearly automatic points there, at the very least call a running play cuz when you pass 4 things can happen and 3 of'em aint good

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

Going way back to the "Hidden Game of Football," going for it on the 2 is definitely the +EV move, mathmatically. Because even if you miss, you still have the other team on the 2, which is very bad odds for the other team to score afterward. I didn't watch the game, but it sounds like a good move to me that didn't work in the long run.

I mentioned this in the game thread as well.1st and 10 from your own 2 yard line and the other team is statistically more likely to score next. However, the worst possible thing the Jets could do was throw an INT in the EZ, which brings the ball back out to the 20.I don't blame the call there, I blame the execution. Not sure what happened on the sidelines, but they should've drilled it into Penny's head to throw it away if the play broke down and not force it.

 

[Spartans Rule]

The EV play there is to go for it

Is it?Ball was on the 2. Essentially a two point conversation. Those convert at about a 40% rate. .4*7 = 2.8The field goal is essentially an extra point, so your percentage here is pretty close to 100. If we say 95, .95*3 = 2.85.So even in a straight mathematical EV sense, it's about even. And in a tie game where you can take the lead, I like the field goal from a momentum standpoint and a game management standpoint.

Going way back to the "Hidden Game of Football," going for it on the 2 is definitely the +EV move, mathmatically. Because even if you miss, you still have the other team on the 2, which is very bad odds for the other team to score afterward. I didn't watch the game, but it sounds like a good move to me that didn't work in the long run.

I mentioned this in the game thread as well.1st and 10 from your own 2 yard line and the other team is statistically more likely to score next. However, the worst possible thing the Jets could do was throw an INT in the EZ, which brings the ball back out to the 20.I don't blame the call there, I blame the execution. Not sure what happened on the sidelines, but they should've drilled it into Penny's head to throw it away if the play broke down and not force it.

While I'm being turned a little bit on some of the other points about going for it, I strongly disagree with throwing it away.The interception cost them 18 yards of field position. That's it. The touchdown would have been worth 7 points. Absolutely you force the ball in there.

 

[corpcow]

Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

Yes. I agree with that. I wouldn't have preferred that to the loss, but you know - sometimes you win by taking chances, and I lik Mangini's gambling more than Herm's ultra-conservative BS. At least you feel right now that we CAN win a game - and we're never out of it, even when it takes 6 laterals to almost score.

 

[corpcow]

While I'm being turned a little bit on some of the other points about going for it, I strongly disagree with throwing it away.The interception cost them 18 yards of field position. That's it. The touchdown would have been worth 7 points. Absolutely you force the ball in there.

I sort of felt they should have run it there. If you don't get it, you pin them deep. And everyone was expecting pass there.

 

[Assani Fisher]

You can't say the game would have played out the same way if the Jets got the FG because you have no idea what would have happened on the ensuing kickoff.

fair enough. Most likely, however, it would've been the exact same or similar to what happened. I'll grant you that tehcnicality though.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Conclusion: If the Jets had kicked that FG, this game would be in OT now.

Yes. I agree with that. I wouldn't have preferred that to the loss, but you know - sometimes you win by taking chances, and I lik Mangini's gambling more than Herm's ultra-conservative BS. At least you feel right now that we CAN win a game - and we're never out of it, even when it takes 6 laterals to almost score.

I think a lot of Jets fans echo your sentiments regarding Herm, and therefore they like this call. I havn't struggled through all that, so I'm not really looking at it in that way.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

You can't say the game would have played out the same way if the Jets got the FG because you have no idea what would have happened on the ensuing kickoff.

fair enough. Most likely, however, it would've been the exact same or similar to what happened. I'll grant you that tehcnicality though.

It's a technicality? It was almost certain that the Jets would lose by 3 with 20 minutes still remaining? The Colts scored 14 points the entire first half and went on to score 14 inside the final five minutes.Again, the blame is to be placed on the Jets for allowing the Colts to score 17 points on their final three drives. I'm not sure why people aren't seeing that.

 

[Assani Fisher]

You can't say the game would have played out the same way if the Jets got the FG because you have no idea what would have happened on the ensuing kickoff.

fair enough. Most likely, however, it would've been the exact same or similar to what happened. I'll grant you that tehcnicality though.

It's a technicality? It was almost certain that the Jets would lose by 3 with 20 minutes still remaining? The Colts scored 14 points the entire first half and went on to score 14 inside the final five minutes.Again, the blame is to be placed on the Jets for allowing the Colts to score 17 points on their final three drives. I'm not sure why people aren't seeing that.

I totally blame the Jets for allowing those points. And I blame the decision to go for it also. The two aren't mutually exclusive.