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Jimmy Graham -- 2011 Hype Train (1 Viewer)

I understand it is early....but does anyone want to throw out some projections for next year? I am curious what some of the bandwagon starters are expecting as far as production. He is on the waiver wire in my dynasty league (no TE required).....18 man rosters.....12 teamer.

 
I wish I could keep him in my keep-3 league, but it's him or Vjax with my sixth pick. Hope he's still there in the draft. Deleting this thread might help there.

 
'gianmarco said:
'Andy Dufresne said:
'King of the Jungle said:
I understand it is early....but does anyone want to throw out some projections for next year? I am curious what some of the bandwagon starters are expecting as far as production. He is on the waiver wire in my dynasty league (no TE required).....18 man rosters.....12 teamer.
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60/750/5
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We will have none of that nonsense here. Double that. Minimum.
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All kidding aside, he is still just a 2nd year player who was raw to begin with and playing in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed.Still. His arrow is trending up.
 
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I think he has one more year for us to grab as a sleeper before he's drafted as one of the elite Te's. He'll be a guy I'm targeting as a low TE1/high TE2 with a lot of upside. Pettigrew is another guy I like heading into his 3rd year from Detroit that you'll be able to draft outside the elite group of Te's that will perform very well.

 
Don't own him, but I'm on board. IMO the 2010 'GR' class of Graham, Gresham and Gronkowski will turn out to be historic when all is said and done.

 
12 team Dynasty ...

Offered:

Keller, 1.10, 2.10, and 3.10

for

Graham, 1.12, 2.12

and got shot down.

 
'Carolina Hustler said:
'BuckeyeArt said:
'Andy Dufresne said:
'King of the Jungle said:
I understand it is early....but does anyone want to throw out some projections for next year? I am curious what some of the bandwagon starters are expecting as far as production. He is on the waiver wire in my dynasty league (no TE required).....18 man rosters.....12 teamer.
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60/750/5
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60/720/10
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ummm.. lol
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Really? Why?If any part of that projection is accurate, it would be the TD portion. Learning to run routes may take more time but I think he has already figured out how to go get a rebound in the end zone. He had 5 TDs this year in the last 8 games.

 
'BuckeyeArt said:
Really? Why?If any part of that projection is accurate, it would be the TD portion. Learning to run routes may take more time but I think he has already figured out how to go get a rebound in the end zone. He had 5 TDs this year in the last 8 games.
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4 of those were in the final four games, which were in a divisional championship chase, but whatever. nevermind the fact that the like to pass to their RBs but were unable to largely because of the injuries to Reggie (yes, I know he was around the final 5-6 games), Pierre, Ivory (who isn't much of a pass catcher, i guess?) and everyone else. they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.apparently, i am the one and only person that is hesitant to jump on this bandwagon. he's talented. i get that, but he's also raw. say what you will about the other TEs he saints have had in recent years - shockey, dave thomas, billy miller, campbell - they are could block. graham needs to get stronger and show his ability to block. OT bushrod is the weak link the line and teams came after bress over and over again from that side. graham will lose snaps to thomas because he is serviceable in both facets of the position. he's not sexy but whatever.i am not trying to be debbie downer here. as a saints fan, i have every reason to love this guy. his time will come but you all have to be more patient. he's still learning. the saints offense is so potent that they're not going to miss what he brings to the table just yet.
 
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Woo-Hoo! He'll step right into the same role that Jeremy Shockey had! I can just imagine all the passes and TD's he's gonna catch. I mean, he's the ONLY good receiver they have on that team. Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Arrington, Bush, Thomas, and Ivory are all gonna get traded away so Graham will be the only guy for Brees. Bank on it!

:rolleyes:

Seriously, they distribute the ball to everyone. And I'd say TE is Brees's last look. To expect anything more than average TE numbers (50 rec's for 500 yards and 3-5 Td's) from Graham is almost as silly as all the ridiculous Finley man slobbing. Let's see him build on his numbers for atleast 2 - 3 consecutive years before we start the anointing.

 
'Warpig said:
Seriously, they distribute the ball to everyone. And I'd say TE is Brees's last look. To expect anything more than average TE numbers (50 rec's for 500 yards and 3-5 Td's) from Graham is almost as silly as all the ridiculous Finley man slobbing. Let's see him build on his numbers for atleast 2 - 3 consecutive years before we start the anointing.
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Actually, if you watch all Saint's games (like I do) you would see that Brees uses his TEs......a great deal. Graham should put up better than average #'s for a TE. I own the guy in 2 dynasty leagues, and I must say that I'm excited. He could easily lead the team in TD receptions this next year. He was drafted to be a red zone target. Still, he is starting to be hyped like Finley was last year. If I could get a top 5 pick for Graham I'd jump on it in a heart beat. Especially since I got him in the 5th in both leagues last year.
 
'Warpig said:
Woo-Hoo! He'll step right into the same role that Jeremy Shockey had! I can just imagine all the passes and TD's he's gonna catch. I mean, he's the ONLY good receiver they have on that team. Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Arrington, Bush, Thomas, and Ivory are all gonna get traded away so Graham will be the only guy for Brees. Bank on it! :rolleyes: Seriously, they distribute the ball to everyone. And I'd say TE is Brees's last look. To expect anything more than average TE numbers (50 rec's for 500 yards and 3-5 Td's) from Graham is almost as silly as all the ridiculous Finley man slobbing. Let's see him build on his numbers for atleast 2 - 3 consecutive years before we start the anointing.
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:goodposting: It's the same reason why Finley will be overrated in almost all formats. There are too many other options in those offenses. Give me a Vernon Davis 9/10 days a week, where he basically IS the passing offense.
 
'saintfool said:
'BuckeyeArt said:
Really? Why?If any part of that projection is accurate, it would be the TD portion. Learning to run routes may take more time but I think he has already figured out how to go get a rebound in the end zone. He had 5 TDs this year in the last 8 games.
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4 of those were in the final four games, which were in a divisional championship chase, but whatever. nevermind the fact that the like to pass to their RBs but were unable to largely because of the injuries to Reggie (yes, I know he was around the final 5-6 games), Pierre, Ivory (who isn't much of a pass catcher, i guess?) and everyone else. they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.apparently, i am the one and only person that is hesitant to jump on this bandwagon. he's talented. i get that, but he's also raw. say what you will about the other TEs he saints have had in recent years - shockey, dave thomas, billy miller, campbell - they are could block. graham needs to get stronger and show his ability to block. OT bushrod is the weak link the line and teams came after bress over and over again from that side. graham will lose snaps to thomas because he is serviceable in both facets of the position. he's not sexy but whatever.i am not trying to be debbie downer here. as a saints fan, i have every reason to love this guy. his time will come but you all have to be more patient. he's still learning. the saints offense is so potent that they're not going to miss what he brings to the table just yet.
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I had a hard time reading that and I'm not really sure I understand your point. Was it that they only targeted Graham in the end zone during the last 3 games because all of their receivers (including Bush) were present during a divisonal championship chase? It really doesn't make any sense. Both payton and Brees have made comments about his end zone abilities. I don't know why they would stop using those abilities as he develops even further as a receiver.
 
'BuckeyeArt said:
I had a hard time reading that and I'm not really sure I understand your point. Was it that they only targeted Graham in the end zone during the last 3 games because all of their receivers (including Bush) were present during a divisonal championship chase? It really doesn't make any sense. Both payton and Brees have made comments about his end zone abilities. I don't know why they would stop using those abilities as he develops even further as a receiver.
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i'll hit the highlights:1. the saints threw the ball more than they ever did last year. that might not trend into next year.2. the saints running game was hampered by injuries to the RB position. whoever is back there at RB will see passes, likely at the expense of the TE. if ivory starts then it may be different but i wouldn't count on him starting.3. TE in the saints offense actually block. graham is still learning the finer points of this and could see less playing time as a result. less playing time could impact his totals.5. there are a ton of proven and effective weapons in the saints offense. they can afford to bring him along slowly. yes, brees and payton like his potential. that's why brees went out of his way to work with him. he recognized the learning curve for this kid is steep and he needs the help.
 
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Graham will become the reliable part of this offense not named Brees. Own him in all my leagues just like Finley. :thumbup:

 
'saintfool said:
'BuckeyeArt said:
I had a hard time reading that and I'm not really sure I understand your point. Was it that they only targeted Graham in the end zone during the last 3 games because all of their receivers (including Bush) were present during a divisonal championship chase? It really doesn't make any sense. Both payton and Brees have made comments about his end zone abilities. I don't know why they would stop using those abilities as he develops even further as a receiver.
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i'll hit the highlights:1. the saints threw the ball more than they ever did last year. that might not trend into next year.2. the saints running game was hampered by injuries to the RB position. whoever is back there at RB will see passes, likely at the expense of the TE. if ivory starts then it may be different but i wouldn't count on him starting.3. TE in the saints offense actually block. graham is still learning the finer points of this and could see less playing time as a result. less playing time could impact his totals.5. there are a ton of proven and effective weapons in the saints offense. they can afford to bring him along slowly. yes, brees and payton like his potential. that's why brees went out of his way to work with him. he recognized the learning curve for this kid is steep and he needs the help.
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I'm not sure what any of that has to do with him being a red zone target over the last half or last 3 games of the season. He had 14 targets in the last 3 games and 37 over the last eight. Both project to 74 targets over a full season. You don't think he'll get at least 74 targets next year?
 
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'Warpig said:
Woo-Hoo! He'll step right into the same role that Jeremy Shockey had! I can just imagine all the passes and TD's he's gonna catch. I mean, he's the ONLY good receiver they have on that team. Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Arrington, Bush, Thomas, and Ivory are all gonna get traded away so Graham will be the only guy for Brees. Bank on it! :) Seriously, they distribute the ball to everyone. And I'd say TE is Brees's last look. To expect anything more than average TE numbers (50 rec's for 500 yards and 3-5 Td's) from Graham is almost as silly as all the ridiculous Finley man slobbing. Let's see him build on his numbers for atleast 2 - 3 consecutive years before we start the anointing.
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TE target leaders for 2010:Witten -- 128Cooley -- 126Pettigrew -- 110Shockey and Thomas combined for 117.And as a team, NO was 5th among teams in TE targets. Just sayin......
 
'saintfool said:
they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.
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You may want to rethink that analysis. The gap isn't as wide as you suggest. Passing attempts by Saints QBs during the Sean Payton era:2006 - 5782007 - 6552008 - 6352009 - 5442010 - 661So, in 2010, they threw the ball 45 times more than the average or 26 times more than the median. Likely it doesn't get back to 660 but it's also just as likely it doesn't return to 540. Somewhere around 600 - 620 certainly wouldn't be out of the question.
 
'Hoosier16 said:
'saintfool said:
they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.
Click to expand...
You may want to rethink that analysis. The gap isn't as wide as you suggest. Passing attempts by Saints QBs during the Sean Payton era:2006 - 5782007 - 6552008 - 6352009 - 5442010 - 661So, in 2010, they threw the ball 45 times more than the average or 26 times more than the median. Likely it doesn't get back to 660 but it's also just as likely it doesn't return to 540. Somewhere around 600 - 620 certainly wouldn't be out of the question.
Click to expand...
attempts were trending down for three years in a row though before last season's rash of injuries to the RBs. just something to consider.
 
'saintfool said:
'Hoosier16 said:
'saintfool said:
they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.
Click to expand...
You may want to rethink that analysis. The gap isn't as wide as you suggest. Passing attempts by Saints QBs during the Sean Payton era:2006 - 5782007 - 6552008 - 6352009 - 5442010 - 661So, in 2010, they threw the ball 45 times more than the average or 26 times more than the median. Likely it doesn't get back to 660 but it's also just as likely it doesn't return to 540. Somewhere around 600 - 620 certainly wouldn't be out of the question.
Click to expand...
attempts were trending down for three years in a row though before last season's rash of injuries to the RBs. just something to consider.
Click to expand...
Actually, it went down two years in a row but I don't think I'd ever call something that happens twice a trend. Trends are easy to imagine if you are willing to overlook the rest of the data.
 
Think that I heard on Sirius radio that Coach Payton was moving back to Dallas. Does anyone think that this relocation will affect the Saints in any way?

Personally, I like Graham, but the hype stated here is out of control. I agree that Brees will continue to spread the ball among all receivers and also that the Saints would much prefer to run more than they did last year.

 
'saintfool said:
'Hoosier16 said:
'saintfool said:
they threw the ball around 650 times last year, which is about 150 more than the SB season, and 40 more times than the year before that. every saints fan will tell you that not having pierre and reggie limited their playcalling considerably. it took a dimension out of the entire offense, not just the passing offense. barring injury, i would not expect the 650 PA form to follow into next year.
Click to expand...
You may want to rethink that analysis. The gap isn't as wide as you suggest. Passing attempts by Saints QBs during the Sean Payton era:2006 - 5782007 - 6552008 - 6352009 - 5442010 - 661So, in 2010, they threw the ball 45 times more than the average or 26 times more than the median. Likely it doesn't get back to 660 but it's also just as likely it doesn't return to 540. Somewhere around 600 - 620 certainly wouldn't be out of the question.
Click to expand...
attempts were trending down for three years in a row though before last season's rash of injuries to the RBs. just something to consider.
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And if Reggie Bush isn't brought back?
 
'Andy Dufresne said:
'gianmarco said:
'Andy Dufresne said:
'King of the Jungle said:
I understand it is early....but does anyone want to throw out some projections for next year? I am curious what some of the bandwagon starters are expecting as far as production. He is on the waiver wire in my dynasty league (no TE required).....18 man rosters.....12 teamer.
Click to expand...
60/750/5
Click to expand...
We will have none of that nonsense here. Double that. Minimum.
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All kidding aside, he is still just a 2nd year player who was raw to begin with and playing in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed.Still. His arrow is trending up.
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Good to see some sanity introduced here. He could be all that in a few years but not this quickly.
 
'r0llin_game said:
And if Reggie Bush isn't brought back?
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it wasn't just Reggie catching balls. Pierre Thomas got his share too. I expect Reggie to come back. He said he would be willing to re-negotiate his contract, likely signing a multiyear extension, and he is a Payton player. pierre was just tendered an offer for $1.8 million but i doubt he'll take it. he thinks he can do better and most fans will tell you that they hate how pierre's been treated. ivory is the only viable starter that has proven effective with playing time. problem is, the dude has shown no ability to catch the ball. 1 target and a single catch resulting from it. i won't even mention his recovering from "minor" lisfranc surgery. if ivory returns then more passes to TE and WRs. keep in mind that colston is in a contract year, IIRC. i can't even begin to speculate what the saints passing game will look like if they get a RB in draft. yes, they have found players off the waiver wire and undrafted but this is also the team that came very close to trading up for beanie wells 2 years ago. they could very well do something similar if ingram tumbles or a prospect - dion lewis, for example - falls to them late in R1. i'm not saying lewis is R1 talent necessarily but you never know how these things take shape.
 
I'm definitely on board. I got him in the 3rd round in two of my league's rookie drafts last year. He outperformed my expectations in 2010. 2011 promises to be great.

 
'rzrback77 said:
Think that I heard on Sirius radio that Coach Payton was moving back to Dallas. Does anyone think that this relocation will affect the Saints in any way?
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Other than angering some loyal NO area residents I don't see a single impact. Here is a detailed article about the move: http://www.neworleans.com/sports/saints/saints-news/559118-saints-coach-sean-payton-family-move-to-westlake-subdivision.htmlI'll add this. For at least the past 4 years Donal Driver has lived near the same city the Payton family is moving to and his kids attend the same school the Payton's just enrolled their kids. Near as I can tell Driver intends to play for the Packers until he can't play any longer and recently suggested he thinks he can play until he's 40. He has zero ties as a player or family members to this area but chooses to reside here so it's not as if him living here means he wants to play for the Cowboys anymore than it means Payton wants to coach him.

 
'menobrown said:
'rzrback77 said:
Think that I heard on Sirius radio that Coach Payton was moving back to Dallas. Does anyone think that this relocation will affect the Saints in any way?
Click to expand...
Other than angering some loyal NO area residents I don't see a single impact. Here is a detailed article about the move: http://www.neworleans.com/sports/saints/saints-news/559118-saints-coach-sean-payton-family-move-to-westlake-subdivision.htmlI'll add this. For at least the past 4 years Donal Driver has lived near the same city the Payton family is moving to and his kids attend the same school the Payton's just enrolled their kids. Near as I can tell Driver intends to play for the Packers until he can't play any longer and recently suggested he thinks he can play until he's 40. He has zero ties as a player or family members to this area but chooses to reside here so it's not as if him living here means he wants to play for the Cowboys anymore than it means Payton wants to coach him.
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Just seems like an extra challenge (living apart from his family) that a head coach does not need to add in my opinion, but thanks for the reply. Who knows, it might be an improvement so that he can fully focus on the Saints?
 
'rzrback77 said:
'menobrown said:
'rzrback77 said:
Think that I heard on Sirius radio that Coach Payton was moving back to Dallas. Does anyone think that this relocation will affect the Saints in any way?
Click to expand...
Other than angering some loyal NO area residents I don't see a single impact. Here is a detailed article about the move: http://www.neworleans.com/sports/saints/saints-news/559118-saints-coach-sean-payton-family-move-to-westlake-subdivision.htmlI'll add this. For at least the past 4 years Donal Driver has lived near the same city the Payton family is moving to and his kids attend the same school the Payton's just enrolled their kids. Near as I can tell Driver intends to play for the Packers until he can't play any longer and recently suggested he thinks he can play until he's 40. He has zero ties as a player or family members to this area but chooses to reside here so it's not as if him living here means he wants to play for the Cowboys anymore than it means Payton wants to coach him.
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Just seems like an extra challenge (living apart from his family) that a head coach does not need to add in my opinion, but thanks for the reply. Who knows, it might be an improvement so that he can fully focus on the Saints?
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How much time does a coach spend with his family during the season anyway? Jim Schwartz said that he had Friday night from around 6-10 and that was about it.

 
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Y'all are nitpicking this to death. Teams gradually change their style every year depending on the weapons they have at their disposal. Just like SF changed theirs when Vernon came around and GB changed theirs when Finley came around. The Saints have a new weapon. I believe Graham is more potent than Shockey (he certainly had better ball skills if nothing else). Not to mention Shockey would have had decent fantasy numbers if he had stayed healthy for longer stretches.

The Saints already have other blocking TEs.

What most people fail to realize is that the Saints don't have a deadly receiving threat. Sure Colston is good, but he's not necessarily a guy that's good on his own. What I mean by that is that Colston isn't Owens. The Saints need a guy that will consistently beat you if you do not give him special attention. Meachem is turning out to be a fine receiver - but not a stud. Same with Lance Moore.

Graham will likely average 4-5 catches per game and likely put up 7-10 TDs. That will be a pretty studly season for a TE, but I everything pointing in that direction.

The problem is that the moment Shokey was released by the Saints, Grahams perceived value quadrupled. So while he might end up as a top 5 TE next season, there are a lot of people out there who would not let him go for proven top 5 TEs right now.

 
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