John Clayton on QBs (1 Viewer)

[TWP]

He's obviously talking about NFL skill and not fantasy football points, but his projections for Brady seemed interesting to me:

"The knee injury slowed him a little in 2009 (4,398 yards, 28 TD passes), but I expect his numbers to be much better this season."

I haven't seen anyone projecting Brady to throw for more than 4,400 yards and 30 TDs and definitely not 'much better' than that. Reactions?

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

He's my #1 heading into the season. I like him to get to 4400/30 and beyond quite safely.

 

[dapunisher]

As a football player, he's probably the #1 QB, but other than his ridiculous 50-TD season, he's never thrown 30 TDs. So last year, despite the inconsistency and the injury rust, was a typical, if not high end, season from a total stats standpoint. He had his second highest yardage total and tied for his second highest season TD mark at 28.

I love the guy as a player, but to exceed last season would mean a big jump from his historical performance.

 

[Abraham]

He's my #1 heading into the season. I like him to get to 4400/30 and beyond quite safely.

I'm not sure I have him #1 among QBs, but the "Brady has only had one truly good fantasy season....He isn't the same as before the knee..." talk is a little silly.

 

[Banger]

It wouldn't shock me and I do think he's being overlooked a bit. He's got terrific receiving options, a bunch of average role playing RBs, a defense that may struggle. He's awesome.

 

[LittlePhatty]

"Much better" is a lofty projection.

Clayton's very next sentence in the Brady summary says "Arrow is pointing: flat"

Seems to contradict the "much better" statement.

Anyway. Blah. For FF I'm keeping Brady ranked 4th. If you take a Top 5 QB you're expecting 4,000+ and 25+ TDs, along with an easier "who to start" decision on Sunday morning. Anything above that is gravy.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

As a football player, he's probably the #1 QB, but other than his ridiculous 50-TD season, he's never thrown 30 TDs. So last year, despite the inconsistency and the injury rust, was a typical, if not high end, season from a total stats standpoint. He had his second highest yardage total and tied for his second highest season TD mark at 28.I love the guy as a player, but to exceed last season would mean a big jump from his historical performance.

I'm entirely comfortable with a big jump over "his historical performance." I don't see any reason to assume he's going to throw 50 TD's again, but it was clear last year that they wanted very much to be the style of offense that still would have made those numbers possible. They simply couldn't...in large part because Brady looked like hell every time he threw a ball. His motion was completely awkward, and it was obvious he wasn't the least bit comfortable and confident in his knee. I think anyone else, in any other system, throwing THAT far off his norm, would have posted 3200/18 type numbers.I think an injured 4200/29 (or whatever he had last year) is every reason to continue to re-interpret his historical stats as having shifted to the high end. I've heard the talk about a focus on the run game, but not only don't I see the evidence in the pre-season...I don't think it's possible. These RB's still blow. And the WRs are deep and solid. And Brady looks 5 years younger than last year.Sure, Welker's not going to last the season, but I'm perfectly comfortable projecting Edelman into the totals.Had to hazard a guess, I'd imagine something like 4750/40 if he stays healthy.

 

[TWP]

Agree that he looked terrible last year and still posted great numbers. I find it hard to understand why FBG projections all seem to forecast LOWER yardage than last year. He missed Moss alone for like 200 yards and 3 TDs last year. Ugh. I'm a bit worried about the OL though. Sign Mankins, please.

 

[NHLumpa2]

It wouldn't shock me and I do think he's being overlooked a bit. He's got terrific receiving options, a bunch of average role playing RBs, a defense that may struggle. He's awesome.

All True.The runners are exactly the same as last year.They may stay a bit healthier and/or get more out of Maroney, or not...The D wont be as good as last year, due to weakening line.The young guys in the linebacker and DBs look to me like they'll develop into decent quality over the course of the season,but not a lot of quality depth there.The D will have a harder time getting off the field this year, with fewer short to 0 yardage run stops.Given that the Pats have not really been a "grind it to close it out" team for the past couple years, not sure if the D makes a difference, or if that difference is better or worse for Brady.I think the net is there wont be many games where killing the clock is an option, but the Pats may get a series or two per game less than most years.The O line, though, with the exception of Sebastian Volmer, is likely to be the same or worse than last year.Volmer was there last year but took half the season to seize the starting tackle spot. If he's not already, he'll be left tackle before long.I expect Brady will be slinging it more this year than the last 2 (yeah, counting the injury year, it's a team situation thing not a player thing).The two-and-three tight end sets people have been talking about wont help the running game as much as the passing game.The improvement there is that Brady will have a better checkdown option in the event there is pressure and Moss/Welker are covered.I'm high on both their rookie TEsWelker will be as close to 100% as he needs to be from the get-go. Moss will have the second best year he's had in a long time, but not like the record year.Their WR depth is better than ever, with Edelman, Tate, Price and Aiken.I expect we'll see a wildcat for about 3 plays every third game or so, with Edelman optioning out with Hernandez and Faulk.Brady did have issues w/ timing and decisions at times last year due to the injury effects, and seemed to have "trust isues" throwing to certain players positions at times last year.So yeah, Brady looks to me like he's in position to improve somewhat vs last year."substantially"? I don't see that. Between the D not getting off the field, and not much better than decent O line play, I think he's more likely to be about the same.

 

[Judge Smails]

2 things cool me overall on both Brady and Moss. 1) Iffy protection by O-line. Forget about sacks. I'm talking how many times Brady has had to rush throws or check down because of lack of time. The days of him sitting in the pocket for an hour like the 50 TD season are over. 2) Revis and the Jets D. Shuts down Moss and just a brutal matchup 2X a year.

While still a stud, and he looks much more accurate this year, I have a hard time seeing him above Rodgers, Brees or Manning.

 

[Tanner9919]

As a football player, he's probably the #1 QB, but other than his ridiculous 50-TD season, he's never thrown 30 TDs. So last year, despite the inconsistency and the injury rust, was a typical, if not high end, season from a total stats standpoint. He had his second highest yardage total and tied for his second highest season TD mark at 28.I love the guy as a player, but to exceed last season would mean a big jump from his historical performance.

I'm entirely comfortable with a big jump over "his historical performance." I don't see any reason to assume he's going to throw 50 TD's again, but it was clear last year that they wanted very much to be the style of offense that still would have made those numbers possible. They simply couldn't...in large part because Brady looked like hell every time he threw a ball. His motion was completely awkward, and it was obvious he wasn't the least bit comfortable and confident in his knee. I think anyone else, in any other system, throwing THAT far off his norm, would have posted 3200/18 type numbers.I think an injured 4200/29 (or whatever he had last year) is every reason to continue to re-interpret his historical stats as having shifted to the high end. I've heard the talk about a focus on the run game, but not only don't I see the evidence in the pre-season...I don't think it's possible. These RB's still blow. And the WRs are deep and solid. And Brady looks 5 years younger than last year.Sure, Welker's not going to last the season, but I'm perfectly comfortable projecting Edelman into the totals.Had to hazard a guess, I'd imagine something like 4750/40 if he stays healthy.

4750/40 is a great projection, it would make Brady worthwhile as a top 1-2 QB this season...if he falls within his career avg of roughly 4100/28-ish, you can find a guy like Eli Manning or Joe Flaccomuch, much later in the draft..seems Eli is consistently available in the 7th-8th rounds on fantasyfootballcalculator.com mock drafts..Flacco's numbers should rise to something like 4000/27 or so..so you're getting great value relative to ADP vs. Brady who'll fly off the board in the 2nd-3rd round.

 

[HenryWinklerRulez]

Don't forget the New England defense is really bad which means they will have to pass a ton to stay in games.

 

[Gopher State]

2 things cool me overall on both Brady and Moss. 1) Iffy protection by O-line. Forget about sacks. I'm talking how many times Brady has had to rush throws or check down because of lack of time. The days of him sitting in the pocket for an hour like the 50 TD season are over. 2) Revis and the Jets D. Shuts down Moss and just a brutal matchup 2X a year.While still a stud, and he looks much more accurate this year, I have a hard time seeing him above Rodgers, Brees or Manning.

No Revis this year?, and the talks have broken off with the Jets and Revis. Move Brady and Moss up on this news alone Plus Moss in a contact year, wow just wow.

 

[PatsFanCT]

As a football player, he's probably the #1 QB, but other than his ridiculous 50-TD season, he's never thrown 30 TDs. So last year, despite the inconsistency and the injury rust, was a typical, if not high end, season from a total stats standpoint. He had his second highest yardage total and tied for his second highest season TD mark at 28.

I love the guy as a player, but to exceed last season would mean a big jump from his historical performance.

That's a very good point, but I believe it's because the price of tea in China was down for all those years. Now that the price is a little higher, it's very possible that Brady throws for more than his historical 28 TD's a season.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Don't forget the New England defense is really bad which means they will have to pass a ton to stay in games.

You sure about that?

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, throw out the numbers for Brady pre-Moss and pre-Welker. Also throw out the 50 TD numbers, as that's not going to happen again.

His yardage should be high (not 4000 to 4100 like some have mentioned). I think 30 TD +/- 2 TD. Anything more than that is icing on the cake (possible, but probably unlikely). I don't see him going south of 28 TD.

 

[kd1]

i'll take schaub and the 5500 yards he's going to throw for this year vs. praying that belichik will decide to run up the score on everybody again.

also, they looked awful in the first half vs. the f'ing rams, and there is still plenty of uncertainty with welker. these aren't your 2007 pats.

brady vs. romo is a tossup, but he's 5th at best amongst fantasy qbs this season.

 

[Koya]

The big issue with Brady as far as fantasy goes has nothing to do with Brady. Moss is a year older and Welker has durability questions with his recent surgery. If you KNOW both will hold up, then Brady is a near lock for top 3 QB (and that is saying a lot considering the competition at that position nowadays). BUT, you don't know that they will hold up and while Edelman is ok, he isn't Welker, and NO one can replace Moss.

 

[Morton Muffley]

I absololutely love Brady this year and expect him to look closer to his 2007 form than his 2009 form. That's not saying that he'll throw 50TDs but whatever you projected Brady for in 2008 is what I think you should project for him in 2010. For me that's 4400/33. Last year he didn't look right and missed Moss a bunch. This preseason he's been on fire and all accounts are that Moss (in a contract year looks as good as ever). No doubt cuz he's looking for one more pay day. Yes, Welker is a risk, but with Edleman, Hernadez, Gronk, Tate, etc I feel pretty good about the back-ups even if it takes Welker a while to get back into the swing of things. The Pats D looks suspect and the running game is mediocre at best so I expect them to score points. And anyone expecting BB to take his foot off the gas because they got bad press for running up the score in 2007 doesn't understand the Belichick. Jets don't have Revis and even if they did you can bet that BB spent a good bit of the offense dissecting how to attack the Jet pressure defense (witness the 2 TE sets!!!).

Lastly, people forget that Brady's record setting year of 2007 was his FIRST with both Moss and Welker and that since Moss missed much of camp they were learning on the fly. So look back at what you expected of Brady in 2008 and forget about historical averages and all that.

One caveat that must be mentioned is that while I expect Brady to light up the regular season I am afraid of the week 14-16 playoff matches...not because of WHO they play (Chicago, GB, Buff), ut because of WHERE they play @ Chicago, @ NE, @ Buffalo. Snow doesn't bother QBs but wind definitely does and I'd say the chances of significant wind one of those December weeks is 70%...so that's the only thing keeping me from drafting Brady as high as I might have in 2008. Still if you can after Manning and Romo I think ya gotta do it.

As always, just my two cents.

 

[Sweet Love]

IMO, throw out the numbers for Brady pre-Moss and pre-Welker. Also throw out the 50 TD numbers, as that's not going to happen again.His yardage should be high (not 4000 to 4100 like some have mentioned). I think 30 TD +/- 2 TD. Anything more than that is icing on the cake (possible, but probably unlikely). I don't see him going south of 28 TD.

I agree with this, David. Brady pre-Moss/Welker had no one to throw to and they seemed more dedicated to the run back then. Brady also is about as close to a lock as you are going to come by for the 28 TD range. I do feel you could go Flacco/Eli and walk away with similar production (and not waste that higher pick on Brady), but by going Brady, you can pick up a Hasselbeck type and just throw him in there once or twice a year and then the picks lost out on QBs evens out more. In my keep 3 league, I went against my traditional drafting strategy as Brady/Clark were staring at me with the turn (basically 4th and 5th round picks). I was going to go the Eli/McNabb route instead, but if I missed out on Eli, I feel I would have been in trouble.

 

[Judge Smails]

I understand the pre Moss and pre Welker discussion, but what about the O-line being able to pass protect anything remotely close to the 50 TD season? Brady seems to have to rush more often than not, and takes lots of hits where he used to have a pure white jersey after every game. He has to work so much harder now and get rid of it quicker. I would rather he have a better line and lesser receivers...

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

He's obviously talking about NFL skill and not fantasy football points, but his projections for Brady seemed interesting to me:"The knee injury slowed him a little in 2009 (4,398 yards, 28 TD passes), but I expect his numbers to be much better this season."I haven't seen anyone projecting Brady to throw for more than 4,400 yards and 30 TDs and definitely not 'much better' than that. Reactions?

I'm pretty thrilled somone posted on this.I drafted Brady in an auction and I have been fearing I overpayed. Then again I went out and got him because I thought this might be a 'return' year.The Pats seem piping mad about last year. And about what is being said about them this year (I think I saw someone from the MNF krewe predict they would not make double digit wins this year).Maybe the division is not as weak as it used to be, but there could be some some choice matchups (detroit, Cleveland) and a nice closing schedule: 14. Chicago (under Martz now I'm thinking Cutler will be chuckin' up wounded pigeons by then), 15. GB at home (shootout anyone?), and 16. @ BUF (might have to think about that one, may not be perfect passing weather, but then hopefully BUF provides lots of opportunities).Welker's back.RMoss in contract year.Edelman's a nice weapon with another year under his belt.No games in the Superdome where they and their spirits will be crushed by the Saints.And I read somewhere else (maybe on a Boston sports blog) that Brady had a host of injuries last year that were not reported much, mostly ribs and as bad finger. He shopuld be all better now.I'm thinking the Pats are determined to return to form this year and I would not bet against them.

 

[tombonneau]

2 things cool me overall on both Brady and Moss. 1) Iffy protection by O-line. Forget about sacks. I'm talking how many times Brady has had to rush throws or check down because of lack of time. The days of him sitting in the pocket for an hour like the 50 TD season are over. 2) Revis and the Jets D. Shuts down Moss and just a brutal matchup 2X a year.While still a stud, and he looks much more accurate this year, I have a hard time seeing him above Rodgers, Brees or Manning.

I think you are overestimating the impact of the Jets D vs. Brady. Yeah, they made him look bad Week 2 coming off the knee injury, but in the second matchup at the end of the year, Pats O dropped 31 pts on that D. Brady was 310/1 with 98 rating. Revis might have done a good job on Moss, but Brady got his and will this year as well.I happen to be very bullish on Brady's 2010 season. The tight ends alone are going to improve the Pats red zone efficiency tremendously, which is what will boost Brady's bottom line the most. I'm looking at a floor of low 30s for TDs, likely high 30s or low 40s.Factor in a young secondary that will not be able to protect leads, and the Pats will have to be scoring with 14 pt leads (only unlike last year, I don't see the offense having as many stagnant second halves).