I think you have the causal arrow backwards there (smoke doesn't lead to fire, fire leads to smoke). Still, if we're using fire metaphors, I'll just say I've been burned before trying to predict human behavior. I'm not going to believe that Manziel's likely to get into bar brawls just because he taunts opponents on the field. I don't necessarily see the link, there.. My fear is that the bolder above is much more probable given his arrogance and clear lack of ability to lay low. In other words, an arrogant kid who clearly believes he's above it all, may only right now be displaying this through thumbing his nose @ the NCAA. But it also raises the possibility that this hyper arrogance would manifest itself in greater and greater folly. Pride and arrogance on the field may lead to a gunslinger style if play. Off the field, it leads to reckless behavior. Smoke often leads to fire.Yes, red flags will get him pushed down the draft board. Had Andrew Luck gotten suspended for smoking pot, maybe Griffin would have gone #1 and Luck gone #2. If Terrelle Pryor hadn't gotten suspended, maybe there's a chance he pulls a Pat White and sneaks into the second. If Da'Rick Rogers wasn't a serial idiot, he probably gets drafted. If Tyrann Mathieu wasn't a serial idiot, who knows, maybe he makes it into the first round. These things absolutely matter.Adam, are you trying to say that immaturity and character issues don't effect a players draft position? I'm not saying he won't get drafted. But you have to be crazy to believe that a QB who may act like a tool and expose the team to tabloids etc. wouldn't negatively impact his draft position. Even half a round or so. Teams absolutely factor maturity into their draft boards.
At the end of the day, though, if NFL GMs think he's the next Robert Griffin, they'll take him in the first. If NFL teams don't take him in the first, that's probably more an indictment of his perceived ability than it is of his perceived maturity- like karmarooster pointed out, Cam Newton gets much more leeway because he's 3 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier. Especially because NFL teams aren't dummies- they know that 20-year-old kids are going to get smarter and more mature. And most especially of all because Johnny Manziel's "maturity issues" are practically a non-issue, as far as the NFL is concerned. Name the last NFL player to get suspended for taunting or signing autographs. In college, these are huge boogeymen because they attack the very (stupid) idea of "amateurism" and the "purity of the game". In the NFL... who cares? Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens were taunting fools. Their coaches didn't necessarily like it, but how many games did they miss because of it? If Johnny Manziel continues being an idiot in the league, it'll cost him a lot of cash and it'll cost his team a half-dozen 15 yard penalties, but how's that any different than what Ndamakong Suh brings to the table?
I'd imagine Manziel's draft stock would be far more impacted by repeated failed drug tests or night club altercations than it would by whatever nonsense he's been getting himself into.
Even if we assume that Manziel's poor impulse control means he's five times as likely to get into a bar brawl as the typical player... what percentage of players get into bar brawls? 1%? So that means there's a 5% chance Manziel does, or a 95% chance he doesn't.
I think a lot of this stems from the fact that people are really bad at thinking probabilistically. As an example: imagine there's a disease that afflicts 1 out of 100 people, and there's a test for this disease that is 90% accurate. If you test positive for this disease, what are the chances you actually have it? People think that the test is so accurate, there must be a high chance that they actually have the disease, but the truth is that only 1 out of every 12 people who tests positive will actually have it. If someone is at dramatically heightened risk for a very unlikely outcome, it still remains very unlikely that they'll succumb to that outcome.