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Thanks for the help. You brought up some great points.
Some of hs points are wrong though. Stewart was worth rostering at any point last year. Also, Stewart has never missed a game, so he is not as injury prone as people think.
He threw up donuts in 7 of his 1st 11 games, yes/no? And the games he did well in most owners would have had no idea they were coming and a lot of owners in redraft leagues where they had to actually fill out a roster each week, no way those owners cashed in on those games. Maybe not roster worthy was a tad strong, but he wasn't helping anyone out other than owenrs in best ball leagues. People were posting frusration constantly in the SP, then he had 3 big games weeks 14, 15, and 16, certainly owners who rolled the dice with him had to do well in their playoffs but he was your RB2 all year you probably weren't around to see the playoffs in redraft leagues. Suddenly everyone felt he was going to take over going into next year.
Depends on your definition of "donut." He had double digit carries in 11 of 16 games last season. In two others he had 9 carries. So he clearly was a key part of their offense on a consistent basis last season. In my opinion he should not have been drafted this season as a starter but rather as someone who was a strong bet to get 10+ carries most weeks of the season. If you believe in his talent and TD potential (the latter is clearly a strength of his) then that would be enough to view him as either a low-end RB2 or a high-upside RB3. Based on how he's typically been used I think what we saw in Week 1 was an aberration and not what people should view as the norm going forward. I would expect him to regain his role as a double-digit carry part of the Carolina offense - beginning this week in a game the Panthers should be able to control, keep close or both.
Carolina was in the lead at halftime. They fell behind quickly in the third quarter.
Williams and Stewart both spent a lot of time on the sidelines against the Giants. The playcalling by the Panthers was nothing short of baffling.On Moore's last INT, he had Stewart open in the flat in front of him. Instead he tried to force the ball to Smith in the end zone again and got it picked.
This
They never had a fact base to support their argument anyway, so it was easy to ignore that stuff.
Most FF leagues that I've heard of DO NOT give RBs points for carries. Since this is a FF board, I would assume that MOP is talking about FF "donuts." And Stewart had under 10 FF points (FBG scoring) in 7 of the first 11 games (with an 8th game where he scored 10.4 points).
Sure, he was a key part of their offense, but that doesn't make him a worthy FF RB. Reggie Bush has been a key part of NO's offense, but he hasn't been much of a FF force. We're talking about FF here, and FF is about scoring FF points, not being a "key part of the offense."
You're welcome to that opinion, but it's not based in much fact. Stewart and Gore have played in 29 games where Williams has been available to play. In 13 of those games, Stewart has failed to receive double digit carries. That's 45% of the time. He's not a "good bet" to get double digit carries, at all, at least not unless Williams gets hurt.
I agree with this, but the problem is that you aren't looking at his true role.
Yes, his role has been pretty clear. He is the RB2. He gets limited carries unless Williams is hurt, or the game is one in which the Panthers can rely heavily on the run (and minimize the pass). You say that he had double digit carries in 69% of the games, and 81% if we include 9 carry games. But you are counting 4 games where he got double digit carries ONLY BECAUSE WILLIAMS WASN'T AVAILABLE TO PLAY! If you look at the facts, he got double digit carries in only 58% of the games where Williams was available(7/12); and the percentage drops to 25% if you include the 3 games where he got 10 or 11 carries.
I agree with you, but since I've established that Stewart is just as likely to get less than 10 carries as he is to get more than 10 carries (and NO WHERE CLOSE to getting it 80% of the time), who else fits that description?
Why do you consider 9 carries a game to be a positive statistic?
Because, in my opinion, it's essentially double-digit carries. As I said, if people want to nitpick and say it's not that's fine. But for me if a RB is getting 9+ carries a game on a consistent basis (which Stewart clearly did last season) and has a proven ability to score a strong number of touchdowns (which Stewart has clearly displayed) than that's someone who I consider to have positive value.The whole point of this thread is to speculate on Stewart going forward. All I'm saying is that he is a RB who is a strong bet to get double-digit carries most weeks and score a healthy number of TDs. I consider him to be a low-end RB2/high-upside RB3 because of those two factors.
Where did he call it a positive statistic?
Let's play along with this line of thinking. Suppose Stewart gets on average 10 carries per game when Deangelo is playing -- since you seem to think 9-10 carries is a good number -- and he averages 4.5 yds per carry. So he'll get ~45 yds per game, which translates to 160 carries for 720 yds during a 16-game season.For his career, Stewart has averaged ~ 1 TD per 20 carries. Projecting for a full season, that suggests he would have 8 TDs (160 carries X 1 TD / 20 carries). Let's throw in 90 receiving yards for a season, since that is roughly his career average. 720 rushing yards = 72 fantasy points8 TDs = 48 fantasy points90 receiving yards = 9 fantasy pointsTotal = 129 fantasy points, or 8 points per gameIn my league's non-PPR scoring, this would have ranked as RB33 last year. On a points per game basis, it would have ranked Stewart in the RB36-40 range. That isn't anywhere near a low-end RB2.
Yep. I have a feeling Stewart will get less than 175 carries this year and Deangelo will get 275+. Deangelo Williams is the better running back right now and they're not re-signing him so why wouldn't they get as much as they can out of his legs? Obviously if Deangelo gets injured everything changes but figuring out when to start Stewart on a weekly basis will be near impossible.Note: I'm not an owner of either but I am a huge Deangelo fan. The guy's vision is superhuman and watching him play is an absolute delight.
Why do you keep changing your criteria for what makes Stewart a reliable RB2/RB3?Originally it was double digit carries, but "we should include his 9 carry games because it's only 1 less carry" because that makes your argument look better.You're trying to stack your argument, but you're doing a poor job.Fact 1-Stewart does not get consistent carries when Williams is healthy. One game he'll get 3 carries, the next game he'll get 11. You can't predict when he'll get significant carries (unless Williams isn't available).Fact 2-Stewart had less than 10 FF points in 8 out of 13 games that Williams played. That means 62% of the time, Stewart was getting you virtually nothing.Fact 3-Your team probably doesn't get to enjoy Stewart's big games unless you suffer through all of his bad ones. And if you suffer through all his bad ones by starting him, you're much more likely to lose.
Since you appear to have trouble connecting the dots, read the post immediately before yours.
I haven't. I've said that I view him as a low-end RB2/high-upside RB3 because he's going to get double-digit carries (or 9+ if it makes you happy) most of the games during the season and he has a proven track record of scoring plenty of touchdowns. That's the only point I've made in this entire thread.
But unless you're playing in best ball leagues, you'll have to start him every week in order to capitalize on his "value." And doing so will make you much more likely to lose in 62% of the games where he doesn't give you any real FF points.
That depends on how you view him and what the rest of your team looks like. I agree if you're starting him consistently as a RB2 that's not a good thing. But if you start him as a RB3 than you're in a stronger position to enjoy the good games he will have - and considering how he has proven he can score a quality percentage of touchdowns in games Williams also plays then those games will occur.
He didnt say it was a positive to get 9 carries. I think he is just making a point that he is more than just a backup RB who only gets 4-5 carries a game. A guy who is getting at least 9-10 carries a game, and maybe a couple of receptions might be worth a flex start or a bye week filler. Especially a guy as talented as Stewart.
Exactly.
I just demonstrated above that 9-10 carries per game won't give you low-end RB2 production.
You also called him a low-end RB2. That is inconsistent with saying "exactly" to the above statement.
Harrison averaged 5.8 YPC and Hillis 4.6 YPC last Sunday. I wouldn't shy away from Stewart this week as a RB3. Plus Stewart has a history of doing well against the Bucs.
He's scored TDs in 13 out of 30 games that Williams also plays. That's less than 1/2 the time, and the same problem remains. YOU CAN'T PREDICT WHEN THOSE GAMES WILL BE. To get those TDs and FF points, you'd have to start him consistently, and as you posted above, that's not a good thing. Thank you for admitting it.
Actually he hasn't. He's still getting carries like he was the last 2 years when Williams was healthy: sporadically.
So you are saying it's nitpicking to say 9 is not a double digit number?
Glad you find that amusing. You know what's really funny? Stewart was Top 15 in many scoring systems last season. Last time I checked that would place him in the RB2 range. How funny is that? I dropped him to lower-end RB2 because he had big games late in the season due to Williams being injured. So yes I would view him as a low-end RB2/high-upside RB3. That's where I saw most people had Stewart ranked going into the season - in the 20-25 range among RBs. Some very respected sites had him ranked even higher.Hilarious.
I said it wouldn't be a good thing to start him consistently as a RB2. I never said it would be a bad thing to start him consistently as a RB3. And ROBOPUNTER, I think if people want to focus on nine carries not being 10 that is nitpicking. Just my opinion.
It's a great idea to use last season's year-end rankings....you know, basically projecting that Deangelo will get injured again. Good job!BTW - I own Stewart, so it's not like I'm a hater.Glad you find that amusing. You know what's really funny? Stewart was Top 15 in many scoring systems last season. Last time I checked that would place him in the RB2 range. How funny is that? I dropped him to lower-end RB2 because he had big games late in the season due to Williams being injured. So yes I would view him as a low-end RB2/high-upside RB3. That's where I saw most people had Stewart ranked going into the season - in the 20-25 range among RBs. Some very respected sites had him ranked even higher.Hilarious.
Why wouldn't you want to start a RB2 as your RB2? Because he's low-end? Somebody has to start a low-end RB2 as their RB2.
I don't recall predicting Williams would get hurt again. Just out of curiosity, where did FBG have Stewart ranked among RBs going into this season? I'm not a subscriber so I don't know.
You know what's even funnier? The fact that Stewart was the 26th ranked RB in my league (non-PPR) last year before Williams got hurt.You keep throwing out stats that include the games that Stewart was the #1RB in Carolina after Williams got hurt. THOSE STATS DON'T MATTER! If Williams is out, we're not having this conversation, because Stewart isn't a borderline RB2, he's a stud RB1.But the fact is when Williams is healthy, Stewart is a dangerous start. He is more likely (62% of the time) to get you nothing than he is to put up good FF numbers. That is indisputable.
YOU are the one who mentioned that Stewart was a top-15 RB last year, as if this somehow provided support for your view of him as a low-end RB2.The only way last season's finish has any logical connection to Stewart's likely 2010 finish is if you project Deangelo to once again get injured. It isn't difficult logic.
Rounding up since I don't view there to be a meaningful difference between nine carries and 10. As I said, if others do that's fine. But I don't. In any event, he only had fewer than nine carries in three games all of last season. That strongly leads to the belief that he will get nine or more on a high basis this season barring injury. And considering his talent, if he's getting that number of carries combined with his proven ability to score touchdowns that's someone I believe has value.
