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JT O'Sullivan (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter greenline
- Start date
chadjohnsonfan
Footballguy
Last weekend I talked a little football with a San Fran homer. We both agreed that O'Sullivan would likely get to start at some point this year. Kinda surprised it could be week 1, but we've seen stranger things in the NFL.
CentralPA
Footballguy
Not out of the realm of possibilty, I wonder if it would help Gore's numbers at all. As horrid as Smith you'd have to think so.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I still don't believe it. As foolish as it may be I still think Alex Smith is the guy.
greenline
Footballguy
I mean literally the two Jeff Tefertiller articles on the Martz Effect http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...ller_martz1.php illustrate the starting QB value for a Martz-system QB.
I know O'Sullivan is a journeyman but maybe this option has some legitimacy.
I know O'Sullivan is a journeyman but maybe this option has some legitimacy.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I guess the right question at this point would really be: what reason is there to believe O'Sullivan won't be the week one starter? This assumes of course you've been keeping up with the daily camp news the last 2 weeks and aren't relying on some month old write up somewhere.
O'Sullivan has been taking all 1st team reps the last 8 or 9 practice days, started game one and will start game 2 of preseason, and Smith just hasn't looked good. Hill BTW is now completely out of the picture, getting no camp reps unless one of the other two guys is resting. Also, Smith is away from camp a couple of days due to the death of a good friend this week, though he'll play Saturday night.
O'Sullivan is an unknown, but just because he has no pedigree, don't simply write him off as irrelevant. Warner and Bulger had no pedigree either. (And do read the Tefertiller article linked above. Good stuff.) O'Sullivan had a head start in the Martz system due to his DET days, and he's been decisive while Smith has been tentative. Smith hasn't been progressing as the team had hoped and has done nothing to close the gap. In fact that gap has widened between the two QBs, and in the minds of local writers who cover the team the competition is essentially over at this point. In addition, the team saves about $20MM in contract incentives if Smith doesn't start this year, so if they've made the decision that he's no longer their future, he may never see the field.
So, unless something weird happens, O'Sullivan will be your week one starter. Whether he can keep the job is another matter, but we'll just have to see how that goes.
O'Sullivan has been taking all 1st team reps the last 8 or 9 practice days, started game one and will start game 2 of preseason, and Smith just hasn't looked good. Hill BTW is now completely out of the picture, getting no camp reps unless one of the other two guys is resting. Also, Smith is away from camp a couple of days due to the death of a good friend this week, though he'll play Saturday night.
O'Sullivan is an unknown, but just because he has no pedigree, don't simply write him off as irrelevant. Warner and Bulger had no pedigree either. (And do read the Tefertiller article linked above. Good stuff.) O'Sullivan had a head start in the Martz system due to his DET days, and he's been decisive while Smith has been tentative. Smith hasn't been progressing as the team had hoped and has done nothing to close the gap. In fact that gap has widened between the two QBs, and in the minds of local writers who cover the team the competition is essentially over at this point. In addition, the team saves about $20MM in contract incentives if Smith doesn't start this year, so if they've made the decision that he's no longer their future, he may never see the field.
So, unless something weird happens, O'Sullivan will be your week one starter. Whether he can keep the job is another matter, but we'll just have to see how that goes.
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
Bob, this isn't a knock on you specifically, but it's symptomatic of message boards. You are underinformed and just need to catch up. You'll do better in FF if you are always on top of the news. Especially this time of year.Early in the offseason I too believed Smith would be the guy, knowing there was no way Hill would beat him out. Well, I was right about Hill being a zero, but O'Sullivan coming along changed things.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
man.. what happened in 06, it seemed Smith was "getting it"; then last yr he was just terrible.
Look, we're about done with the 2nd week of pre-season... if Smith isn't getting 1st team reps by now; its no longer a game... their done w/ him.
Look, we're about done with the 2nd week of pre-season... if Smith isn't getting 1st team reps by now; its no longer a game... their done w/ him.
butcher boy
Footballguy
If the 49ers coaching staff is smart, they'll start Smith.
They are not smart though, so I'm sure it will be JTO.
If ever there was a person who could best run a "How to ruin a rookie QB" seminar, Mike Nolan would be the guy.
They are not smart though, so I'm sure it will be JTO.
If ever there was a person who could best run a "How to ruin a rookie QB" seminar, Mike Nolan would be the guy.
greenline
Footballguy
Can you elaborate on why they would be smarter to do so if Alex Smith is struggling with the offense and the other QB is doing well in a systyem he knows? Is it just because Alex Smith was a high pick with pedigree?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Bay Area talk radio is bad too regarding Nolan. When he first came to town, his self assured style was welcomed with open arms. Now folks view him as a lot of hot air and bad decisions. Losing will do that.I'm a SF / OAK homer so I keep up with the local stuff, but I'm a FF fan mostly and try to keep an overall perspective. It really looks like Nolan is deferring to Martz on the QB thing, and if O'Sullivan gets the call and fails it's on Martz. The whole bunch will be looking for jobs if this turns into a train wreck though, including Martz, Nolan, O'Sullivan, and Smith.But the problem with Smith (according to SF Chronicle, who I work for) is that Martz absolutely requires making quick decisions and getting the ball out, throwing to spots and trusting that the WR will be there and open. Smith just hesitates and holds the ball way too long, waiting to see a WR actually open before he turns it loose. Too tentative, too afraid of mistakes. The Martz system keeps fewer players in to block, puts more guys out on routes, and the indecisiveness will get a QB killed. Even a QB like Warner and Bulger, who knew what they were doing in that system, got killed more than QBs in safer systems. Smith, whether due to still not understanding the plays and routes, or lack of confidence, or whatever, has looked lost. He's currently just not startable. With preseason game 3 being the game where regular season starters are set, I just don't see Smith having the time to turn it around. On top of that, his best friend committed suicide a few days ago and he's lost more camp time due to that. And who knows where his head is with that going on now.
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butcher boy
Footballguy
I can't think of any other young QB who has been given a worse set of circumstances than Smith. The only year he had a combination of a decent surrounding cast, and decent coaching was 2006 and non-coincidently that was the year he showed tremendous improvements.In 2007, he started out good, but then got injured and then rushed back from injury by Mike Nolan's ego. Part of me says he should start because he has the best arm, best intelligence, and best skills of all the 49er QBs. The other part tells me he should be traded or released because there's no way he can succeed as long as Nolan is head coach.
trader jake
Footballguy
San Francisco has underachieved the last few years and the pressure is high on both HC Mike Nolan and QB Alex Smith. With that said I believe it is a wise move to put JT O'Sullivan in the starting role for now. If he has early success in the Martz system the 49ers have their Marc Bulger moving forward and save a bunch of coin in the process. If JT fails Alex can begin his last chance at success in San Francisco with much less pressure and just play ball instead of gripping too hard on every last play.
It's the same reason why I believe it makes sense for Atlanta to start Redman instead of Ryan week 1 and the Ravens starting Smith or Boller instead of Flacco. Of course Alex Smith isn't a rook but with the complexity of the Martz offense he may feel like one again. Give him that extra week or two to split #1 reps and even see some real game film with JT under center before he is thrown to the wolves.
Does this make sense to anybody else or am I just over thinking here?
It's the same reason why I believe it makes sense for Atlanta to start Redman instead of Ryan week 1 and the Ravens starting Smith or Boller instead of Flacco. Of course Alex Smith isn't a rook but with the complexity of the Martz offense he may feel like one again. Give him that extra week or two to split #1 reps and even see some real game film with JT under center before he is thrown to the wolves.
Does this make sense to anybody else or am I just over thinking here?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Makes good sense to me TJ.
Mookie Blaylock
Footballguy
If Smith is the better talent, and the Niners aren't expecting to win the SB this year, it would make sense to me if they let O'Sullivan play as long as he can this year and give Smith a full year to learn Martz's system. One year is all O'Sullivan has, correct? They have a few weapons on offense - OK, 2 - so why not let everyone get a year older and see what happens. I mean, I know Martz only lasted one year in Detroit. Is that the expectation in SF?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I agree...As long as the entire locker room doesn't disagree.
If Ryan earns it, he earns it.
Sports Illustrated states that the Falcons are leaning toward naming rookie Matt Ryan their starting quarterback.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
He knows the system, so he is ahead of Smith, but he isn't the same level of talent.
drummer
Footballguy
After last season, with the Hostler debacle, Nolan convinced the Owners that the offense was the real problem for the 5-11 season, and that the defense and special teams were good enough for a playoff run. He basically bought another year being HC doing that. The ownership did take away some of his authority, but it's mostly symbolic. The funny thing is, he goes and hires Martz, who by local reports, aren't a favorite of the Yorks. The Yorks are friends with Charley Armey, and Armey hates Martz. To me, it's a desperate hire from a desperate coach. The fans are mad because they thought Smith would win the job easily. Martz obviously has his ideas of who he wants at QB. This whole thing is turning into a mess already, and Nolan wants a contract extension. Expectations? No one knows what to expect at this point. The only expectation is another losing season, and Nolan being fired. What happens after that, no one knows, because it's the Yorks who own the team.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
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Mookie Blaylock
Footballguy
Wow. What a mess.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
It boils down simply though. Winning cleans up the mess. Losing cleans it up too, but in a different way. The defense s/b sound, so it's on the offense to put the ball into the end zone and help win games. If they manage 7 or 8 wins and offensive numbers are pointing strongly upward, fans and ownership will be happy and it will be viewed as another Martz miracle. If they suck again, look for a complete overhaul from GM to HC to OC to QB, with an experienced and respected Parcells-type taking control of the operation and bringing in his own people. There is definitely pressure to make a big improvement NOW and the whole coaching staff knows it. Hence starting the guy (O'Sullivan) who appears to have a grasp of the offense and the best chance to help them put points on the board now. Key word is "seems." When the bullets are flying for real, we'll see.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I don't understand why O'Sullivan gets so much backing from people because he "knows the system". This is a guy with a terrible arm, and who makes terrible decisions.
He's been on something like 9 teams in 6 years and never more than 3rd string wherever he's been. He's not a Marc Bulger or Kurt Warner in the making. He stinks.
He's been on something like 9 teams in 6 years and never more than 3rd string wherever he's been. He's not a Marc Bulger or Kurt Warner in the making. He stinks.
drummer
Footballguy
It is a big mess, considering that the Yorks put all of the Franchise eggs into the Nolan/Smith basket, and they could both be gone next season. Another curious thing is that if Smith doesn't start this season the team saves $$ in incentive clauses, and if he is cut or traded, they save cap $$ in the long run. The Yorks gave Nolan Parcells like power when they hired him. Nolan has never proved himself capable in both HC/GM roles, but he had absolute authority over matters concerning the team. Nolan brought in Scot McGloughan, and the Yorks promoted ScotM to GM. ScotM might have to fire the guy who brought him in after this season, if the season blows up. Good times.
identikit
Footballguy
I agree Bob; and I don't think I'm 'underinformed' at all.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I don' think anyone here is backing O'Sullivan because he knows the system. We are simply relaying decisions Martz/Nolan are making, and passing along camp reports from writers whose job it is to follow the team. Knowing the system hasn't kept O'Sullivan with the first team, his outperforming Smith and Hill has done that. If you have disagreement that's fine, but your disagreement needs to be with the coaches who have made this their careers, not with message boarders who are simply passing along what is happening. You say O'Sullivan stinks. Martz says he's doing a great job. I'll keep an open mind until I see enough actual evidence. I haven't seen that yet. It wouldn't shock me if he were another Bulger, and it wouldn't shock me if he were a disaster.
drummer
Footballguy
Winning 8 games will just mask the fundamental issues of the Nolan era. If Martz leaves for a head coaching gig after this season, then it's back to square one, with maybe Tollner as the OC. It's still yet another OC in another year. The problem lies with Nolan not sticking with the offense he installed in Year 1. If you install an offense in Year 1, you should be running it in Year 3. Nolan has no clue of offense, so he hires guys that will help him out in that dept., which is fine, but stick with one system at least. This whole "QB competition" is 3 years too late. Smith was handed the job, and he had no real plan of development in the least, and Nolan had Dilfer, a guy who was no threat to Smith, as a backup. Niner fans saw what happened when Dilfer had to step in. The Martz hire is yet another straw that Nolan reached for, and this could be his last one.
gianmarco
Footballguy
drummer
Footballguy
What's funny is that Nolan became enamored with Hill, mostly because he saved his job, and now Martz has negated Hill. Hill I think makes close to $2 mil a year, and now he is the 3rd string QB. Smith isn't Martz's reclamation project. The whole offense is. If JTO gets the offense faster than Smith does, then he should be the starter until Smith takes it away from him.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I'm a Niner homer and have been following Smith and JTO's progress in camp for weeks. At the time JTO took over for Smith, Smith was actually outperforming everyone. Mind you, none of them looked great, but Smith was the clear frontrunner if you looked at what the stats they were putting up in camp. Then JTO started getting reps with the first team everyday, and all we get out of the coaching staff are constant comments like "Don't read anything into it" and "It doesn't mean anything." So yeah, it was very confusing and questionable to see all this take place.All of the local writers were just as baffled as us fans.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Couch Potato,I appreciate your remarks. I'm also a Bay Area kid. I don't think Alex Smith is all that great but he'll get the job. I've read a lot on the situation as well. Even if Sullivan somehow manages to hold onto the starters spot by default I'm confident Smith will get his shot at some point. Martz runs a very complex offense. Sullivan is the only guy who had experience in it so of course he was going to look better than Hill/Smith.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I apologize if my saying "...this isn't a knock on you specifically, but it's symptomatic of message boards. You are underinformed and just need to catch up" came across as condescending. You saying "I still think Alex Smith is the guy" I took as meaning "The 49ers still have him as their starter" and I was just trying to correct that with the info that has been coming out of camp.Clarifying as you have done, what you meant was "I still think Alex Smith will be the guy when this all shakes out, not necessarily by week one." And that I won't argue with. I have no affinity for either guy, and to be honest, if I were forced to make a prediction, it would be that the Martz QB guru mystique will end up with some tarnish when this is all said and done. When Martz was hired I imagined an offense that would improve markedly with Smith at QB and the mentoring of Martz, but now that Smith has shown signs of confusion and regression rather than starting to behave like a #1 overall pick, color me skeptical of the offense this year. I've made no great predictions of O'Sullivan's success, only that it appears he'll get the nod to start week one. Beyond that I'll be interested to see how things develop but I have no great expectations at this point of any fantastic transformation from the worst offense in the league last year to something special.
butcher boy
Footballguy
The bolded part is what I don't get. Unless these signs of confusion and regression are taking place off the field, it's simply not true. As I said, Smith was pulling ahead of the other 2 QBs in the week leading up to the first preseason game. Then, JTO was named the starter and Smith still ended up with the best stats of all of them in that game. Where are these signs of confusion?
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
These would be ancedotal reports from writers each day, describing poorer accuracy than JTO, interceptions, holding onto the ball too long before making a decision where to go with it. I wasn't referring to his 5 for 9 against the Raiders' 2nd unit last week. There, he started 1 for 5 and looked pretty bad, but then hit his next 4 throws of 5, 10, 5, and 11 yards before exiting the game.To say he was pulling ahead of JTO in the week leading up to the first preseason game is the comment I don't understand. Camp started on about July 25 and JTO received no snaps at first. Smith and Hill struggled, and by Aug 3 the team decided to divide snaps equally. In the 11 days since then JTO clearly pulled away. There was never any time during camp Smith was pulling ahead. He started with every opportunity and wasn't getting it done as well as JTO was.
drummer
Footballguy
What I saw out of the Raider game was JTO running more of Martz's staples of offense than what Smith did. Of course, Smith was playing with the second team offense, but it looked like JTO is ahead of knowing the system than Smith is at this point. JTO will have a whole half this upcoming GB game. My guess is that Smith will get a start in the preseason with the first unit, but most of the focus seems to be on the guy who has bought into Martz's offense, and so far, that's JTO.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Very cool, One.JTO was also NFL Eurpoe MVP in 2004 for those who don't know, just like another nobody named Delhomme before him.**Sleeper Alert**
JT O'Sullivan = Starter for 49ers
Starter in NFL = Fantasy Value
One was O'Sulluvan's TE in HS = One finally has Fantasy Value
eh.. Maybe not
I realize NFLE < SEC, Pac-10, etc., but I just thought I'd add that tidbit.
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5Rings
Lurker
JT looked awful last week, imo. After heading up to camp earlier this summer, I was relatively optimistic...not so much now.That said, JT's poise in the pocket is his major advantage and is what Smith lacks. Smith is almost getting to be David Carr-lite in his happy feet in the pocket....and that won't fly, as CP said, in Martz' offense. I see Smith doing some sitting and watching early in the year till he mentally catches up with JT....then he'll get his shot to succeed or fall on his face while both he and Nolan are shown the door.
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5Rings
Lurker
It was.
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
David Carr down?That aside, Smith's circumstances haven't been good. Apart from Gore, has he had any real weapons to work with? Maybe Davis could be counted as one. But that's it. And the o-line has given up an average of 46 sacks per season since Smith arrived - not a way to successfully develop a young qb who was probably already behind the curve given the offense he ran at Utah.
drummer
Footballguy
The real problem was that Nolan's "plan" for offense finally came up and bit him in the behind. His main reason for Hostler was keep continuity with Smith, not because he had any acumen for the job. Was he handcuffed with Turner leaving late? Sure he was, but there was another guy on staff in Sullivan that actually had OC experience in AZ. Could he have done better than Hostler? I don't see how he could have done worse. The team could have been 3-13 if it wasn't for two plays in the first 2 games. Smith got hurt of course, but Nolan didn't recognize that, and refused to even after Julian Peterson pointed out he looked hurt after a SEA game. Hostler was Smith's QB coach. So by promoting Hostler, he took away continuity with Smith, and if Hostler would have remained Smith's QB coach, he could have backed Smith up when Nolan threw Smith under the bus. Let's not forget how Nolan like's to play favorites, especially on defense, and especially with Derek Smith, who was flat out horrible, but still started.It was.
Hill saved Nolan's job by playing well in 2 meaningless games. Nolan had no clue of who he was, and he didn't start him until Dilfer got hurt.
I could go on and on about how bad of a coach Nolan is, but this season will prove it anyway.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Remember last season when Alex Smith kept saying he wasn't healthy (and he wasn't the only one saying that) while Nolan essentially told him to suck it up? Nolan kept saying he wasn't injured then a couple weeks later the team comes out and says he's hurting.
What a mess.
What a mess.
drummer
Footballguy
When reporters told Nolan about Peterson's quote on how Smith was wincing on his throws and saying he looked hurt, Nolan brushed it off by telling them "Is he a Doctor?". I don't want to hijack this thread about Nolan, but his double speak on the QB situation tells me that he thinks he is in trouble this season, realizing that hiring Martz wasn't going to be the slam dunk he thought it was going to be. I believe he seriously thought that Hill would win the starting job, and Matt Maiocco reported that the reason that Hill was given rest in camp was not due to a sore arm, but that Martz wanted more reps for JTO. Hill is basically out of the running, and they just gave Hill some nice coin in a contract this off season.
Good times for 49er fans.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I think that incident has left a bad taste in many a 49er fan's mouth as far as feelings toward Nolan are concerned.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Drummer, I have to say you have been spot on with every comment and past fact as far as I can see / remember. I don't remember reading posts of yours until this thread came along, but I will be sure to look for them in the future. It looks like you are a close follower of the team and interpret the happenings with eyes fully open.When reporters told Nolan about Peterson's quote on how Smith was wincing on his throws and saying he looked hurt, Nolan brushed it off by telling them "Is he a Doctor?". I don't want to hijack this thread about Nolan, but his double speak on the QB situation tells me that he thinks he is in trouble this season, realizing that hiring Martz wasn't going to be the slam dunk he thought it was going to be. I believe he seriously thought that Hill would win the starting job, and Matt Maiocco reported that the reason that Hill was given rest in camp was not due to a sore arm, but that Martz wanted more reps for JTO. Hill is basically out of the running, and they just gave Hill some nice coin in a contract this off season.Good times for 49er fans.
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drummer
Footballguy
I don't play FF because it's just way too much for me to keep up with, so I don't post on this forum much, just read it. It's kind of the same reason I don't gamble on football, or get into a pick'em on message boards. I came across this site from a link on a football board, and have stayed since. This board is fantastic. Lots of good info and insight. I hang out mostly on the FFA forum. That's more my speed for right now, LOL. Thanks for the appreciation.Drummer, I have to say you have been spot on with every comment and past fact as far as I can see / remember. I don't remember reading posts of your until this thread came along, but I will be sure to look for them in the future. It looks like you are a close follower of the team and interpret the happenings with eyes fully open.When reporters told Nolan about Peterson's quote on how Smith was wincing on his throws and saying he looked hurt, Nolan brushed it off by telling them "Is he a Doctor?". I don't want to hijack this thread about Nolan, but his double speak on the QB situation tells me that he thinks he is in trouble this season, realizing that hiring Martz wasn't going to be the slam dunk he thought it was going to be. I believe he seriously thought that Hill would win the starting job, and Matt Maiocco reported that the reason that Hill was given rest in camp was not due to a sore arm, but that Martz wanted more reps for JTO. Hill is basically out of the running, and they just gave Hill some nice coin in a contract this off season.Good times for 49er fans.
toxicbees
Footballguy
Al the QBs stunk last game, we'll see how they do as a group tomorrow. But I honestly thought JT looked like the best Martz type QB. He has a quick release and throws the ball before his WRs break. Alex on the other hand played very conservatively, made poor decisions and still seems to script his passes too much with his loopy delivery. Hill looked plain bad, but I've never been a Hill fan, he's a career backup QB.
