Julius Jones (1 Viewer)

[Prime]

Hi, I'm looking for the Julius Jones thread.

me too.I have to admit im excited about Jones as a Cowboys and Notre Dame fan. I watched some of him last year and he is pretty elusive. Im still shocked Bill didnt get Kevin Jones but im happy for the most part. I only worry about his health as i cant stand to see Hambrick fall over himself for another year.As far as his fantasy value, I see him getting about 1,300 6-8 tds with Ritchie, Hambrick and the TE's stealing a few away. Bill likes to playaction on the goal line even with Quincy.

 

[Peens]

As far as his fantasy value, I see him getting about 1,300 6-8 tds with Ritchie, Hambrick and the TE's stealing a few away. Bill likes to playaction on the goal line even with Quincy.

I would have a hard time picking Julius over KJones in a dynasty draft but my "gut" tells me he is the better play this year in a redraft league. Maybe my cowboy homerism is coming out.

 

[Colin Dowling]

The value for Jones is going to be completely determined by the play of the O-line. THey will likely be starting 3 guys who've never been on the field for an NFL game, and Larry Allen may be gone entirely. I think that Jones will be given the lions' share of the work on 1st and 2nd down with Hambrick getting a little use and Ritchie Anderson being used in the passing game. I'd say that my "expectation" of Jones would be about 1,100 yards and 5 - 7 TDs in 2004. If he does that well, I would be extremelly satisfied in his production. Colin

 

[grouse]

What is most intriguing to me is that Rudi Johnson finished in the top-20 fantasy-wise last season, despite starting only 5 games. HERD has Rudi ranked 25th, and Perry 30th for 2004. This is even more bewildering than simply stating that you think Perry will carry the load in his rookie season. If anything, I would think the Bengals would be even more committed than they were last season to running the ball to help Carson succeed. Either HERD thinks absolutely nothing of the Bengals ground game this season, or he figures Carson Palmer is the second coming of Dan Marino. Go figure.

1. We're going to have a much more constructive discussion if you quit using self-serving stats to support your point. In my league, Rudi finished 24th, but even if he did finish in the Top-20 in your scoring, and he only "started" 5 games, he had the majority of carries for the Bengals in 11 of the 13 games he appeared in. He was the teams main ball carrier last season. In the NFL, "starting" is a status symbol a heck of a lot more then it is a meaningful statistic. 2. In that same league, Dillon finished 35th despite being a major pain the ###, missing 3 games, and having less then 4 yards per carry.

My prediction is that Perry will have fewer carries then Dillon's 138, but better YPC, more catches (Dillon had 11) and more TDs (Dillon had 2). Therefore, to place him in the late-20's or early 30's is harldy a stretch. My prediction for Rudi is that he will continue to produce at roughly the same level he has with one exception: In the incidence that the Bengals need to run the ball over-and-over to kill the clock, the workload will be split between Perry and Rudi instead of Rudi doing it himeslf. Rudi had 70 carries (32% of his season total) in TWO games. I do not think such numbers will repeat themselves.

Colin

Talk about self-serving stats. Sheesh! Not only are the stats you use self-serving, they don't even make sense and/or are consistent with what you write from post to post.You stated in this thread:

"C. Perry - I know I'm in the minority, but I think Perry will get the bulk of the carries and the vast-majority of catches out of the backfield for the Bengals."

Then you go on to say later:

"My prediction is that Perry will have fewer carries then Dillon's 138."

I'm no math wizard, but I'm smart enough to know that those two statements don't add up. Furthermore, even if we cast aside your earlier claim of Perry carrying the load for the Bengals this year, and we take your last statement as being your 'opinion du jour', exactly how do you envisage Rudi Johnson not improving on his 2003 ranking this season based on your own claims alone? If Perry garners less carries than Dillon's 138, and the Bengals ran the ball a total of 423 times last season (and again, you'd have to figure they will at least match or best that figure this year), where are the 300 or so carries outside of Perry's contribution going? And based on that, how can you possibly figure Rudi would rank worse this upcoming season?

 

[Prime]

What is most intriguing to me is that Rudi Johnson finished in the top-20 fantasy-wise last season, despite starting only 5 games. HERD has Rudi ranked 25th, and Perry 30th for 2004. This is even more bewildering than simply stating that you think Perry will carry the load in his rookie season. If anything, I would think the Bengals would be even more committed than they were last season to running the ball to help Carson succeed. Either HERD thinks absolutely nothing of the Bengals ground game this season, or he figures Carson Palmer is the second coming of Dan Marino. Go figure.

1. We're going to have a much more constructive discussion if you quit using self-serving stats to support your point. In my league, Rudi finished 24th, but even if he did finish in the Top-20 in your scoring, and he only "started" 5 games, he had the majority of carries for the Bengals in 11 of the 13 games he appeared in. He was the teams main ball carrier last season. In the NFL, "starting" is a status symbol a heck of a lot more then it is a meaningful statistic. 2. In that same league, Dillon finished 35th despite being a major pain the ###, missing 3 games, and having less then 4 yards per carry.

My prediction is that Perry will have fewer carries then Dillon's 138, but better YPC, more catches (Dillon had 11) and more TDs (Dillon had 2). Therefore, to place him in the late-20's or early 30's is harldy a stretch. My prediction for Rudi is that he will continue to produce at roughly the same level he has with one exception: In the incidence that the Bengals need to run the ball over-and-over to kill the clock, the workload will be split between Perry and Rudi instead of Rudi doing it himeslf. Rudi had 70 carries (32% of his season total) in TWO games. I do not think such numbers will repeat themselves.

Colin

Talk about self-serving stats. Sheesh! Not only are the stats you use self-serving, they don't even make sense and/or are consistent with what you write from post to post.You stated in this thread:

"C. Perry - I know I'm in the minority, but I think Perry will get the bulk of the carries and the vast-majority of catches out of the backfield for the Bengals."

Then you go on to say later:

"My prediction is that Perry will have fewer carries then Dillon's 138."

I'm no math wizard, but I'm smart enough to know that those two statements don't add up. Furthermore, even if we cast aside your earlier claim of Perry carrying the load for the Bengals this year, and we take your last statement as being your 'opinion du jour', exactly how do you envisage Rudi Johnson not improving on his 2003 ranking this season based on your own claims alone? If Perry garners less carries than Dillon's 138, and the Bengals ran the ball a total of 423 times last season (and again, you'd have to figure they will at least match or best that figure this year), where are the 300 or so carries outside of Perry's contribution going? And based on that, how can you possibly figure Rudi would rank worse this upcoming season?

Ok i thought we were back on topic then it gets highjacked again...If you guys want to talk about Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry go ahead....

In its own thread!

 

[Viper]

Hi, I'm looking for the Julius Jones thread.

I think it is in here somewere I saw something about Julius about 2 pages back.

 

[Colin Dowling]

"C. Perry - I know I'm in the minority, but I think Perry will get the bulk of the carries and the vast-majority of catches out of the backfield for the Bengals."Then you go on to say later:"My prediction is that Perry will have fewer carries then Dillon's 138."I'm no math wizard, but I'm smart enough to know that those two statements don't add up. Furthermore, even if we cast aside your earlier claim of Perry carrying the load for the Bengals this year, and we take your last statement as being your 'opinion du jour', exactly how do you envisage Rudi Johnson not improving on his 2003 ranking this season based on your own claims alone? If Perry garners less carries than Dillon's 138, and the Bengals ran the ball a total of 423 times last season (and again, you'd have to figure they will at least match or best that figure this year), where are the 300 or so carries outside of Perry's contribution going? And based on that, how can you possibly figure Rudi would rank worse this upcoming season?

I am of the opinion that Perry will be the main guy by the end of the year. I am also smart enough to realize that its going to be a lot easier for me - in the Rankings and discussion - to give Rudi his due right now until he proves me wrong. I'm not in the business of making bold predictions just to be adventuresome. If I had to write in hard number predictions right now, I'd say that Rudi's numbers will be almost exactly the same as last year. He WILL NOT have another 43 carry game, so those carries can be spread out among the games where he was used a lot less to come to roughly the same number of carries. If you are interested in drafting Rudi Johnson in a redraft league, its going to cost you a 2nd or 3rd round pick to do so. **You are so quick to point out that there are 300 or so carries outside of Perry's contribution that are unacconted for. Call me a kook, but I have a sneaking suspicion that, just like every other team in the NFL, more then 2 RBs will be used...Colin