Julius Thomas vs. Jordan Cameron (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Any thoughts on these two? They seem to be ranked pretty close on most dynasty lists. Who do you like here and why?

Personally, I think Cameron is more likely to be legit in the long run. Better athlete. Better yardage totals. People will attribute some of his success to Norv Turner, but whatever he gained from that is probably dwarfed by what Thomas gained by operating in a Manning offense with three other quality receiving threats to pull coverage away.

My hunch here is that Cameron will remain a top 4-5 TE for the next several seasons while Thomas will slide back towards Greg Olsen/Martellus Bennett levels of low TE1 mediocrity. I feel like Thomas is a mild sell while Cameron is a solid buy. Given how closely their perceived values are, now might be a good time to make a decision on that if you own either of these two.

 

[maxhyde]

I am with you on Cameron.

Looks legit to me. I made a point of trying to scoop him before last season when the Saints signed Watson.

Hoping QB stability helps him improve on last year and I am not concerned about the coaching change very much. Most OC's can identify their matchup players and get them the ball

JT I am on the fence about. Hard to tell whether he is a great TE busting out or a by-product of a Manning offense...maybe he is both but for my money I will select Cameron over him every time.

Look forward to the discussion on this thread

 

[ClownDogs]

I like cameron just a tad more than thomas personally(probably could be swayed in either directions), but think this could be Cameron's ceiling type season. It is well known that Turner/Chud loved using the TE and still TBD how much the new regime will use him.

Just for a gauge, in a 1.5ppr for te's, i dealt Cameron for Cruz/Pitta.

 

[ffgiant]

I am a bit lower on J. Thomas's talent level. He is in a great situation. Once Manning not playing any more, you will be extremely luck to get a Greg Olsen/Martellus Bennett levels of low TE1 production from you. But hey, ranking is all about talent plus situation. J. Thomas is in a great situation, I will enjoy my ride now.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Cameron is an athletic freak. People may have missed his 2011 combine numbers but he is a legit athlete with freakish measurables. He had his break out year and people want to attribute it all to Turner. Cameron to me should be the first TE taken after Graham and Gronk are picked.

 

[ghostguy123]

Thomas now, Cameron later.

Though market value I place Thomas higher.

 

[Two Deep]

People picking Cameron.......who do you think will be throwing him the ball in the near future? Thomas over Cameron until Cleveland actually obtains an NFL QB.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

People picking Cameron.......who do you think will be throwing him the ball in the near future? Thomas over Cameron until Cleveland actually obtains an NFL QB.

Who threw to him last year? It lead to some inconsistency but Thomas played with Manning all year and Manning had a historic year and Cameron performed on par with Thomas even without stability at QB. I don't think Cameron is a guy that will only produce in a system, he is too athletically gifted for that. The fact that the top TE's got to play with Brady, Brees, Manning, Ryan, does not hurtthem for sure. But Cameron was on par sans Graham and he had Weeden/Campbell/Hoyer combo.

 

[Soulfly3]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

 

[Pickle Rody]

Fortunate to own both of them. Short term, Thomas over Cameron. Not really sure how to predict long term for either of them. Looking forward to reading others thoughts.

 

[bucsbaby]

I owned both this year and so I watched both quite a bit. Cameron's decline imo was due to a drop in targets, though I don't have the stats to back that up. It seemed like when the ball was thrown his way, he generally caught it. If he had a solid NFL QB, and an offense that featured him a bit more, he'd be a perennial stud. So, I guess what I'm saying is the talent is clearly there.

However, I have to say that Thomas has freakish talent too. When he got the ball in his hands, he just really, really looked like a stud -- good hands, strong, fast, hard to bring down, nose for the endzone. Seems like the real deal. If there weren't a plethora of mouths to feed in Denver, he could be right there with Graham imo.

I agree with those saying that for this upcoming year, Thomas is the one to own. However, I'm not convinced that Thomas's value would tank post-Manning. Just depends on what the offense (QB and WRs) looks like then.

 

[Two Deep]

People picking Cameron.......who do you think will be throwing him the ball in the near future? Thomas over Cameron until Cleveland actually obtains an NFL QB.

Who threw to him last year? It lead to some inconsistency but Thomas played with Manning all year and Manning had a historic year and Cameron performed on par with Thomas even without stability at QB. I don't think Cameron is a guy that will only produce in a system, he is too athletically gifted for that. The fact that the top TE's got to play with Brady, Brees, Manning, Ryan, does not hurtthem for sure. But Cameron was on par sans Graham and he had Weeden/Campbell/Hoyer combo.

Cameron was the second receiver in Cleveland......If they actually get a NFL quality second and maybe third receiver you may see Camerons numbers drop accordingly.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Thomas is going to be money as long as Manning plays. I think Cameron is mildly overrated.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:

Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

People picking Cameron.......who do you think will be throwing him the ball in the near future? Thomas over Cameron until Cleveland actually obtains an NFL QB.

Who threw to him last year? It lead to some inconsistency but Thomas played with Manning all year and Manning had a historic year and Cameron performed on par with Thomas even without stability at QB. I don't think Cameron is a guy that will only produce in a system, he is too athletically gifted for that. The fact that the top TE's got to play with Brady, Brees, Manning, Ryan, does not hurtthem for sure. But Cameron was on par sans Graham and he had Weeden/Campbell/Hoyer combo.

Cameron was the second receiver in Cleveland......If they actually get a NFL quality second and maybe third receiver you may see Camerons numbers drop accordingly.

That is where we see things different. Cameron will demand the looks because he is a freak. He will get his because he is that good. Gronk, Graham, Gonzo these guys will get there's because they are good.

 

[Soulfly3]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:

Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

watch him play, then get back to me.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:

Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

watch him play, then get back to me.

I watched plenty of games. But don't trust me how about trust the stats. What do the other percentages tell you? The other guys cant catch either?

 

[jonboltz]

Prior to last year, Julius Thomas is pretty much where Ladarius Green was this offseason -- highly though of, but hadn't gotten a great opportunity. Now that he had his opportunity and produced, people are pegging him down "cause it was with Manning", as if the guy wasn't a very highly touted prospect/athlete...I don't quite get it.

Oh, and unless Cleveland drafts Bridgewater or Bortles, the 'next' QB of Denver (Osweiler) will still be better than whatever Cleveland throws out there.

 

[johnadams]

Both players do exactly what the top tier TEs do, namely creating serious mismatches for defenses. If everything is neutral, Cameron's rare athleticism would put him ahead of JT (though I think JT's athleticism is pretty high). However, CLE's situation is a bit of a mess with needs at QB, RB, and WR2-5. A better offense with more weapons would benefit JC, not hinder, as he's be able to exploit match-up issues better. But, until that situation gets sorted, I'm going with JT, who I think can get better and might be more involved without Decker. Plus, when Manning retires, I could see Elway going strong after another big name QB with contract issues.

 

[TakiToki]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:

Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

watch him play, then get back to me.

I watched plenty of games. But don't trust me how about trust the stats. What do the other percentages tell you? The other guys cant catch either?

They tell me that of those guys Jimmy Graham is the worst catcher of footballs by a significant margin? Seems like a pretty worthless stat in this context.

 

[Run It Up]

Peyton Manning vs Brian Hoyer

 

[ghostguy123]

What the Hell does catch % have to do with drops????

 

[ghostguy123]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

Yeah, I will have to vote this the dumbest use of stats to try to say something of all time.

 

[Soulfly3]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

Yeah, I will have to vote this the dumbest use of stats to try to say something of all time.

I just left it alone, but this is what I woudl have said

 

[Brewtown]

Give me Julius! All day and twice on Sunday!

 

[Tanner9919]

JT - no Decker means 87/1288/11 has to be redistributed to other wr's/te's..

Cameron has K. Shanahan calling the shots for the Browns offense,so that'll help keep him numbers up..

I think the edge goes to JT with the pending departure of Decker and perhaps Tamme/Dreesen.

and for thos who consider Olsen to be a low-end TE, he was top 5 this past year, he's as consistent a player you'll ever find, much like Witten..

Olsen isn't Jimmy Graham, but he's a very good TE..

 

[travdogg]

JT - no Decker means 87/1288/11 has to be redistributed to other wr's/te's..

Does it? I mean, some of it probably will be, but I think its more likely that Manning's numbers just come way down. Not just because of losing Decker(though that hurts too) but just due to general regression.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Manning won't suddenly become a bad QB. Welker won't get 10 TDs again either. There's a lot of room for regression with Thomas still getting 8-12 TDs.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

When Cameron learns to catch he'll be a stud.

Until then, he's just a boatload of potential.

Sincerely,

An every week Browns supporter

Fail:Graham catch percentage 60 %

Gonzo 68%

Vernon Davis 67%

Witten 65%

Thomas 72%

Cameron catch percentage 67%

Yeah, I will have to vote this the dumbest use of stats to try to say something of all time.

I just left it alone, but this is what I woudl have said

Dumbest use of stats? Because the stats don't exactly agree with what you are saying?

Cameron is catching the same percentage of balls that a top tight end catches in the National Football League. You guys are saying that he has trouble catching balls which by the stats is false. Graham has an extremely high YPC for TE's especially for the amount of targets he is getting and this makes sense why his catch percentage is lower than everyone else. His targets are happening farther down the field and is also one of his arguments that he should be franchised as a WR vs a TE.

You can say Cameron drops a few more balls than some of the other guys which may be true, but he also must be making up for it by catching balls that the other guys are not able to catch due his percentage being on par and better than many of the top guys. I don't get how this is hard to understand. You call it a dumb stat because it is proving you wrong.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

 

[ghostguy123]

Back to jt and cameron. I think decker leaving would only increase the value of thomas. Will he benefit statistically??? Yeah I think he should get a bump in targets. It won't hurt his production IMO, would only help, or at least stay the same.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

Ok then how about you give me the drop percentages of TE's?

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

Ok then how about you give me the drop percentages of TE's?

Using PFF data and defining drop% as (Drops) / (Drops + Catches), here are the top 10 TEs in total receptions, plus a few others of interest.

Graham - 6.5%

Gonzo - 4.6%

Cameron - 5.9%

Gates - 8.3%

Olsen - 6.4%

Witten - 7.6%

Clay - 9.2%

Bennett - 4.4%

Thomas - 5.8%

Walker - 7.7%

Vernon - 8.8%

Reed - 8.2%

Cook - 13.6%

Gronk - 4.9%

Eifert - 11.4%

Green - 5.6%

Feel free to debate the relative merits of "drop%" as a statistic (not a huge fan, given the small sample sizes involved) or PFF as a data source, I'm just providing the numbers.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

Ok then how about you give me the drop percentages of TE's?

Using PFF data and defining drop% as (Drops) / (Drops + Catches), here are the top 10 TEs in total receptions, plus a few others of interest.

Graham - 6.5%

Gonzo - 4.6%

Cameron - 5.9%

Gates - 8.3%

Olsen - 6.4%

Witten - 7.6%

Clay - 9.2%

Bennett - 4.4%

Thomas - 5.8%

Walker - 7.7%

Vernon - 8.8%

Reed - 8.2%

Cook - 13.6%

Gronk - 4.9%

Eifert - 11.4%

Green - 5.6%

Feel free to debate the relative merits of "drop%" as a statistic (not a huge fan, given the small sample sizes involved) or PFF as a data source, I'm just providing the numbers.

Thank-you Adam.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Back to the OP, I think that Jordan Cameron is a better football player than Julius Thomas, in terms of football skills. Thomas relies a lot on athleticism and simply being a physical mismatch. He reminds me a lot of the raw athlete in college who dominates the competition without really honing his craft simply because no one else is big enough and fast enough to cover him. Teams have guys capable of covering Julius, but they're usually too busy worrying about Demaryius, instead.

I really like them both, and expect Julius to outscore Jordan over the next year or two, but I prefer Cameron in the long run.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

Ok then how about you give me the drop percentages of TE's?

Using PFF data and defining drop% as (Drops) / (Drops + Catches), here are the top 10 TEs in total receptions, plus a few others of interest.

Graham - 6.5%

Gonzo - 4.6%

Cameron - 5.9%

Gates - 8.3%

Olsen - 6.4%

Witten - 7.6%

Clay - 9.2%

Bennett - 4.4%

Thomas - 5.8%

Walker - 7.7%

Vernon - 8.8%

Reed - 8.2%

Cook - 13.6%

Gronk - 4.9%

Eifert - 11.4%

Green - 5.6%

Feel free to debate the relative merits of "drop%" as a statistic (not a huge fan, given the small sample sizes involved) or PFF as a data source, I'm just providing the numbers.

Thank-you Adam.

Happy to help.

 

[Two Deep]

Back to the OP, I think that Jordan Cameron is a better football player than Julius Thomas, in terms of football skills. Thomas relies a lot on athleticism and simply being a physical mismatch. He reminds me a lot of the raw athlete in college who dominates the competition without really honing his craft simply because no one else is big enough and fast enough to cover him. Teams have guys capable of covering Julius, but they're usually too busy worrying about Demaryius, instead.

I really like them both, and expect Julius to outscore Jordan over the next year or two, but I prefer Cameron in the long run.

Not being a wise guy at all, but can you explain what you mean. Are we talking route running, blocking, catching ability? Also how to you see Gordon in regards to drawing coverage from Cameron. I'd venture to say Graham gets his based solely on the fact that he is a physical mismatch, he certainly isn't faster than the other teams best coverage man. When it comes to elite TE's I don't believe there is much separating them other than opportunity/offensive scheme.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Back to the OP, I think that Jordan Cameron is a better football player than Julius Thomas, in terms of football skills. Thomas relies a lot on athleticism and simply being a physical mismatch. He reminds me a lot of the raw athlete in college who dominates the competition without really honing his craft simply because no one else is big enough and fast enough to cover him. Teams have guys capable of covering Julius, but they're usually too busy worrying about Demaryius, instead.

I really like them both, and expect Julius to outscore Jordan over the next year or two, but I prefer Cameron in the long run.

Not being a wise guy at all, but can you explain what you mean. Are we talking route running, blocking, catching ability? Also how to you see Gordon in regards to drawing coverage from Cameron. I'd venture to say Graham gets his based solely on the fact that he is a physical mismatch, he certainly isn't faster than the other teams best coverage man. When it comes to elite TE's I don't believe there is much separating them other than opportunity/offensive scheme.

Yes, route-running, blocking, catching ability. The ability to diagnose coverages and react properly. The sixth sense some football players have where they know that the QB is in trouble and they'll break off their route early to give him an immediate outlet. All of the little skills that make up the craft of football. Julius Thomas vs. Wes Welker is a great comparison. Welker doesn't have the raw physical skills of Thomas (although he's an underrated athlete), but he just knows exactly where he needs to be. He knows where the soft spots in the coverage are at all times, and he gets there on time every time. He's fluid, has great moves, and is adept at getting the defender to take a wrong step. In short, Welker is a productive receiver because he has top-notch "football skills".

Thomas doesn't have those skills and instincts. He gets the ball because he's bigger, stronger, and faster than the competition. Once he has the ball, he usually gets more yards because he's bigger, stronger, and faster than the guys trying to tackle him. He's not great at diagnosing and attacking defenses. He's a disgustingly wretched blocker. He's not going to make a lot of moves to gain separation. That's all fine- I don't get bonus points for receiving yards that come after sick head-fakes to get open. Production is production, and Julius Thomas has attributes that lend themselves quite well to producing in fantasy football. I'm a Julius Thomas fan. I just don't think he's as good of a football player as Jordan Cameron. Both are top 5 tight ends, but I'd prefer Cameron over the long run. I think he has attributes that lend themselves better to long term production.

 

[Biabreakable]

Cleveland only ran the ball 21.8 times a game in 2013 (30th in the league) and due to passing more than any other team 42.6 times a game their total plays climbed to 10th overall total plays at 1078.

Does anyone think this pacing will continue? I don't.

So what you have is a perfect storm. Norv Turner as the OC running an offense with no running game for balance throwing even more than Denver or any other team in the league in 2013 to arrive at the numbers Cameron posted for his break out.

What Cameron did is likely a career high from a situation that is not likely going to continue. Norv is gone. Pettine is a defensive coach.

Denver ran the most plays of 2013 with 1156 total plays and they passed the ball almost as much as Cleveland did with 42.2 passes a game.

This pacing may be sustainable for another season. At least until Manning declines. Thomas gets a smaller piece of that large pie than Cameron did. But with Decker likely leaving in free agency it is possible that Thomas role in the offense goes up.

I think both are being over valued somewhat due to ideal situation for their success last season.

ETA- The idea that Cameron broke out last season solely because of his athletic ability is one I do not agree with. If that were the case then why didn't he win the job from Watson before now? Or similarly Thomas? I contend that situation had a big part in how they performed last season.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Cleveland only ran the ball 21.8 times a game in 2013 (30th in the league) and due to passing more than any other team 42.6 times a game their total plays climbed to 10th overall total plays at 1078.

Does anyone think this pacing will continue? I don't.

So what you have is a perfect storm. Norv Turner as the OC running an offense with no running game for balance throwing even more than Denver or any other team in the league in 2013 to arrive at the numbers Cameron posted for his break out.

What Cameron did is likely a career high from a situation that is not likely going to continue. Norv is gone. Pettine is a defensive coach.

Denver ran the most plays of 2013 with 1156 total plays and they passed the ball almost as much as Cleveland did with 42.2 passes a game.

This pacing may be sustainable for another season. At least until Manning declines. Thomas gets a smaller piece of that large pie than Cameron did. But with Decker likely leaving in free agency it is possible that Thomas role in the offense goes up.

I think both are being over valued somewhat due to ideal situation for their success last season.

ETA- The idea that Cameron broke out last season solely because of his athletic ability is one I do not agree with. If that were the case then why didn't he win the job from Watson before now? Or similarly Thomas? I contend that situation had a big part in how they performed last season.

Denver scored the most points of any team in the history of the NFL and Peyton Manning shattered the previous TD record by 5 scores, and yet Cameron is the guy whose situation is primed to regress? I would think 4,000 yards and 26 TDs passing is a heck of a lot more repeatable than 5,500 yards and 55 TDs passing, even if it's Peyton Manning.

 

[ghostguy123]

Regarding their situation, its hard to know if the changes in Cleveland will be for the better or worse for Cameron, and is more difficult for TEs in general. His qbs sucked all year but he did well. Some good qbs didn't get much out of their TE spot like the packers, colts, seahawks, lions, giants......

A high powered offense with a good qb doesn't mean the te will do well, and a bad offense with a bad qb doesn't mean the te will do poorly.

Both are talented, both are talented in different ways. Thomas is in basically the same situation, camerons is completely different. For the next couple years I take Thomas easily, knowing the Cameron could very well outscore him, but i see a MUCH lower floor given the new situation, whatever that may be.

 

[Biabreakable]

Cleveland only ran the ball 21.8 times a game in 2013 (30th in the league) and due to passing more than any other team 42.6 times a game their total plays climbed to 10th overall total plays at 1078.

Does anyone think this pacing will continue? I don't.

So what you have is a perfect storm. Norv Turner as the OC running an offense with no running game for balance throwing even more than Denver or any other team in the league in 2013 to arrive at the numbers Cameron posted for his break out.

What Cameron did is likely a career high from a situation that is not likely going to continue. Norv is gone. Pettine is a defensive coach.

Denver ran the most plays of 2013 with 1156 total plays and they passed the ball almost as much as Cleveland did with 42.2 passes a game.

This pacing may be sustainable for another season. At least until Manning declines. Thomas gets a smaller piece of that large pie than Cameron did. But with Decker likely leaving in free agency it is possible that Thomas role in the offense goes up.

I think both are being over valued somewhat due to ideal situation for their success last season.

ETA- The idea that Cameron broke out last season solely because of his athletic ability is one I do not agree with. If that were the case then why didn't he win the job from Watson before now? Or similarly Thomas? I contend that situation had a big part in how they performed last season.

Denver scored the most points of any team in the history of the NFL and Peyton Manning shattered the previous TD record by 5 scores, and yet Cameron is the guy whose situation is primed to regress? I would think 4,000 yards and 26 TDs passing is a heck of a lot more repeatable than 5,500 yards and 55 TDs passing, even if it's Peyton Manning.

I think both situations are anomalous, which is what I already said.

Peyton Manning being who he is there is more reason to expect the Broncos to maintain the high number of offensive plays (I could see it being less pretty easily just because the bar is already set so high) than there is reason to expect the same from the Browns who have changed coaches again.

Also with Decker leaving that may mean Thomas's role in the offense in terms of targets goes up, even if the total passing attempts does go down.

The run/pass distribution for Denvers offense was not as lopsided as what happened in Cleveland either. So less reason to expect passing numbers to go down if better running game becomes established.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Cleveland only ran the ball 21.8 times a game in 2013 (30th in the league) and due to passing more than any other team 42.6 times a game their total plays climbed to 10th overall total plays at 1078.

Does anyone think this pacing will continue? I don't.

So what you have is a perfect storm. Norv Turner as the OC running an offense with no running game for balance throwing even more than Denver or any other team in the league in 2013 to arrive at the numbers Cameron posted for his break out.

What Cameron did is likely a career high from a situation that is not likely going to continue. Norv is gone. Pettine is a defensive coach.

Denver ran the most plays of 2013 with 1156 total plays and they passed the ball almost as much as Cleveland did with 42.2 passes a game.

This pacing may be sustainable for another season. At least until Manning declines. Thomas gets a smaller piece of that large pie than Cameron did. But with Decker likely leaving in free agency it is possible that Thomas role in the offense goes up.

I think both are being over valued somewhat due to ideal situation for their success last season.

ETA- The idea that Cameron broke out last season solely because of his athletic ability is one I do not agree with. If that were the case then why didn't he win the job from Watson before now? Or similarly Thomas? I contend that situation had a big part in how they performed last season.

Denver scored the most points of any team in the history of the NFL and Peyton Manning shattered the previous TD record by 5 scores, and yet Cameron is the guy whose situation is primed to regress? I would think 4,000 yards and 26 TDs passing is a heck of a lot more repeatable than 5,500 yards and 55 TDs passing, even if it's Peyton Manning.

I think both situations are anomalous, which is what I already said.

Peyton Manning being who he is there is more reason to expect the Broncos to maintain the high number of offensive plays (I could see it being less pretty easily just because the bar is already set so high) than there is reason to expect the same from the Browns who have changed coaches again.

Also with Decker leaving that may mean Thomas's role in the offense in terms of targets goes up, even if the total passing attempts does go down.

The run/pass distribution for Denvers offense was not as lopsided as what happened in Cleveland either. So less reason to expect passing numbers to go down if better running game becomes established.

I don't think it's just a matter of pass/run ratio. There are four key variables that combine to give us passing yards, and all four are vulnerable to regression individually. Those four are total plays, pass/run ratio, completion percentage, and yards per completion (Plays * Pass% * Comp% * Yards per Comp = Passing yards). In Denver's case, all four are going to be prone to regressing downward. In Cleveland's case, the pass/run ratio will be regressing downward, the total plays should expect a mild negative regression, and the completion% and YPC should both regress up. To some extent, the effect of the latter will counter the effect of the former. We could evaluate all four variables individually to try to estimate what happens to passing yards... or we could roll them all up into passing yards and look at that. Cleveland passed for 4040 yards, which ranked 11th in the NFL. Both totals are relatively sustainable, though they should expect some slight negative regression. Denver passed for 5444 yards, which is the most in the history of the NFL by a ridiculous margin. That is poised to come crashing back to earth. If you're looking at the individual factors and concluding that there's less reason to think that Denver will regress from 5400 passing yards than that Cleveland will regress from 4000 passing yards, then you're doing something wrong. That's the exact opposite of how regression works- the more of a historical outlier a season is, the more likely we should believe it is to regress heavily back towards the mean.

 

[Biabreakable]

Adam what is your reason to expect Cleveland passing completion percentage and YPC (or YPA?) to go up?

The completion percentage I could see going up some just due to less passing attempts, so defenses worrying about the run more than they were last season. I do not see how this would mean total passing yardage also goes up. I think it will go down.

Denvers passing offense is likely to decline. But that decline will still end up with far greater passing numbers than Cleveland will put up and therefore a larger pie for Thomas to be a part of. The Denver offense is not going to decline to average if Manning is healthy most of 2014. It likely will decline towards the average but still be a top 3 passing offense in 2014. If you think Denvers passing offense is going to decline to a line similar to Cleveland in 2014 I am not the person doing something wrong.

I would appreciate it if you would stop providing me claims I have not made.

Peyton Manning with the Broncos-

2012 400 583 37TD 11INT 68.6% 21 sacks
2013 450 659 55TD 10INT 68.3% 18 sacks

These numbers are about as steady as you could ask for. Nearly identical completion percentage.

The main difference is in the pass attempts going up 72 (hurry up improved) without much decline in completion percentage leading to 50 more completions in 2013. Yards/Attempts improved from 8 to 8.3 and obviously the high number of TD.

Meanwhile Clevelands offense from 2012 to 2013

998 to 1078 total plays largely due to passing the ball so much is what I think caused the increase in total plays.

Rushing attempts for Cleveland from 2012-13 fell from 396 to 348. A really low number of rushing attempts.

Passing attempts for Cleveland from 2012-13 went up by 115 from 566 to 681

 

[lod01]

It's a dumb stat because it means nothing.

If you want to know if a guy has trouble with drops, try using drops or drop percentage. You know, a stat that actually makes sense to use.

Catch percentage doesn't factor in the 50 other things that would lead to a completion or incompletion, while a drop is a drop.

That's enough of my time spent on this stupid issue. If you don't get it by now, you never will. That's a worse usage of stats than what a politician would try and use.

Ok then how about you give me the drop percentages of TE's?

Using PFF data and defining drop% as (Drops) / (Drops + Catches), here are the top 10 TEs in total receptions, plus a few others of interest.

Graham - 6.5%

Gonzo - 4.6%

Cameron - 5.9%

Gates - 8.3%

Olsen - 6.4%

Witten - 7.6%

Clay - 9.2%

Bennett - 4.4%

Thomas - 5.8%

Walker - 7.7%

Vernon - 8.8%

Reed - 8.2%

Cook - 13.6%

Gronk - 4.9%

Eifert - 11.4%

Green - 5.6%

Feel free to debate the relative merits of "drop%" as a statistic (not a huge fan, given the small sample sizes involved) or PFF as a data source, I'm just providing the numbers.

Thank-you Adam.

Yeah, looks like J. Cameron really can catch. Factor in the turds that threw the ball to him and he is even better than shown at catching the ball. Campbell is just awful. Weeden is bad.

I'm far more concerned about what the 'O' philosophy will be this year. No clue what this new regime has planned for the TE position. We all knew Chud and Turner were going to get him the ball.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Adam what is your reason to expect Cleveland passing completion percentage and YPC (or YPA?) to go up?

Same as my reason for expecting their Pass:Run ratio to go down. They were towards the edges of the distribution, and numbers at the edge of the distribution have a tendency to regress.

Now, just because I expect Denver to regress more than Cleveland doesn't mean I think they'll have comparable offenses next year. Denver's offense is going to blow Cleveland's offense out of the water next year- and everyone else's too, for that matter. I'm just saying, if we're doing the whole "Cleveland's offense is going to get X% worse, and that will impact Cameron" thing, we should also note that Denver's offense is going to get Y% worse, and that will impact Thomas, and Y% is likely to be greater than X%.

Obviously there are a lot of other factors that are going to come into play, I just don't think "offensive regression" should be a point we're holding against Cameron when we're comparing him to Thomas, who is pretty much the poster child for offensive regression in 2014.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well just noting that the Browns did pass the ball even more times than the Broncos did in 2013 and put up no where near the numbers.

Completion percentage from the Browns QBs was poor. Weeden about 52% Campbell not much better than that. Hoyer did have a respectable 58% completion percentage over 3 games he was healthy. If the Browns do add a QB in the draft this could improve those numbers as well.

So a scenario where the Browns run the ball more but improve their efficiency in the passing game causing the yardage numbers to remain somewhat the same is possible. But if that QB or the system does not take as many shots down field as Turner did in 2013 that the yards/attempt might go down even as the completion percentage improves due to shorter passing game. I am not entirely clear on what Pettines plans are for the offense at this time. He may be looking to import what the Bills are doing offensively which could mean more rushing attempts but still a fast paced offense running a lot of plays. Or with a solid defense they could slow things down and run the ball more. Either one should lead to less passing attempts and more rushing attempts, with the fast paced version being more overall plays.

I think that Gordon's 18.9 yards/reception is something not likely to be repeated. Amazing to note that he accomplished that. But more likely that number falls to around 16 and with fewer targets as well.

Cameron has averaged 11+ ypc in the last 2 seasons. He saw a huge increase in targets however I think in part due to not as many rushing attempts (Where Cameron or someone else would be blocking) as I expect the Browns to run more in 2014 compared to 2013. Closer to 400ra could mean anywhere from 30-100 less targets for the recievers as a whole, however that gets split between them but meaning less target opportunity and catches for Cameron. Although likely the same ypc and TD ratios.

 

[jurb26]

Bia, what happens if Clev ever gets a competent QB?

 

[Soulfly3]

Bia, what happens if Clev ever gets a competent QB?

Watch week 1 and find out

 

[Biabreakable]

Bia, what happens if Clev ever gets a competent QB?

Given Clevelands long history of failure I am not sure they will do that, and if they do that they will likely find some other way to mess things up.