QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Okay this is a long one and a convoluted one. Please feel free to post any disambiguity questions or point out impossibilities. But it looks pretty clear to me that the Falcons still have a shot (with just a little help).
Current Standings for 2nd wild-card (Note - NOT by tie-breaker, just record)
Minnesota 7-6
Detroit, Arizona, and Washington 6-7
New Orleans 5-7
Chicago, Carolina, and Philadelphia 5-8
ATLANTA 3-9
Here's what they need:
1) Atlanta wins vs New Orleans Week 14
2) Atlanta wins at Tampa Bay Week 15
3) Atlanta wins at Arizona Week 16
4) Atlanta wins vs Seattle Week 17
5) Minnesota loses vs Chicago Week 15
6) Minnesota loses vs Washington Week 16
7) Minnesota loses at Denver Week 17
8) Washington loses at Giants Week 15
9) Washington loses vs Dallas Week 17
now the trickier part - all of these statements must be true and it is definitely possible that that can happen, though certain of these results will turn other results into must be trues:
10) Detroit must lose at least 2 of their last 3 games (week 15 at SD, week 16 vs KC, week 17 at GB)
11) Arizona must lose at least 1 of their other 2 games (week 15 at NO, week 17 vs STL)
12) New Orleans must lose at least 1 of their other 3 games (week 15 vs ARIZ, week 16 vs PHIL, week 17 at CHIC)
13) Chicago must lose at least 1 of their other 2 games (week 16 vs GB, week 17 vs NO)
14) Carolina must lose at least 1 of these 2 games (week 15 vs SEA, week 17 at TB)
15) Philadelphia must lose at least 1 of their last 3 games (week 15 at DAL, week 16 at NO, week 17 vs BUF)
Some of the hows and whys on the situation:
If the Falcons win out, they will have a 3-3 division record and a 6-6 conference record and will have split with all 3 teams in their division.
The Saints cannot beat them in a tie-breaker b/c of a 2-4 division record.
The Panthers will have one of the following occur if they are tied with Atlanta at 7-9:
Win vs Seattle and Dallas, which means they lose the tiebreaker with a 2-4 division record.
Win vs Tampa Bay and Dallas, which means they lose the common games tiebreaker.
Win vs Seattle and Tampa Bay, which means they would be the same in common games. Atlanta loses this tiebreaker based on conference record (Carolina would be 7-5), hence they need 14) to be true
So, with Atlanta successfully out of the division the only Head-To-Head loss that they would have to worry about would be to Minnesota. HOWEVER. For they to tie Minnesota at 7-9, either Washington or Philadelphia MUST be involved in the tiebreaker which gets rid of the Head-to-head tiebreaker altogether. The next tiebreaker is then conference record. None of Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia or Arizona will have a better conference record than 5-7 if they get to 7-9, so Atlanta wins all of these tiebreaker scenarios on that basis.
So there you go Falcon Fans!!!! It's right there for the taking
-QG
Current Standings for 2nd wild-card (Note - NOT by tie-breaker, just record)
Minnesota 7-6
Detroit, Arizona, and Washington 6-7
New Orleans 5-7
Chicago, Carolina, and Philadelphia 5-8
ATLANTA 3-9
Here's what they need:
1) Atlanta wins vs New Orleans Week 14
2) Atlanta wins at Tampa Bay Week 15
3) Atlanta wins at Arizona Week 16
4) Atlanta wins vs Seattle Week 17
5) Minnesota loses vs Chicago Week 15
6) Minnesota loses vs Washington Week 16
7) Minnesota loses at Denver Week 17
8) Washington loses at Giants Week 15
9) Washington loses vs Dallas Week 17
now the trickier part - all of these statements must be true and it is definitely possible that that can happen, though certain of these results will turn other results into must be trues:
10) Detroit must lose at least 2 of their last 3 games (week 15 at SD, week 16 vs KC, week 17 at GB)
11) Arizona must lose at least 1 of their other 2 games (week 15 at NO, week 17 vs STL)
12) New Orleans must lose at least 1 of their other 3 games (week 15 vs ARIZ, week 16 vs PHIL, week 17 at CHIC)
13) Chicago must lose at least 1 of their other 2 games (week 16 vs GB, week 17 vs NO)
14) Carolina must lose at least 1 of these 2 games (week 15 vs SEA, week 17 at TB)
15) Philadelphia must lose at least 1 of their last 3 games (week 15 at DAL, week 16 at NO, week 17 vs BUF)
Some of the hows and whys on the situation:
If the Falcons win out, they will have a 3-3 division record and a 6-6 conference record and will have split with all 3 teams in their division.
The Saints cannot beat them in a tie-breaker b/c of a 2-4 division record.
The Panthers will have one of the following occur if they are tied with Atlanta at 7-9:
Win vs Seattle and Dallas, which means they lose the tiebreaker with a 2-4 division record.
Win vs Tampa Bay and Dallas, which means they lose the common games tiebreaker.
Win vs Seattle and Tampa Bay, which means they would be the same in common games. Atlanta loses this tiebreaker based on conference record (Carolina would be 7-5), hence they need 14) to be true
So, with Atlanta successfully out of the division the only Head-To-Head loss that they would have to worry about would be to Minnesota. HOWEVER. For they to tie Minnesota at 7-9, either Washington or Philadelphia MUST be involved in the tiebreaker which gets rid of the Head-to-head tiebreaker altogether. The next tiebreaker is then conference record. None of Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia or Arizona will have a better conference record than 5-7 if they get to 7-9, so Atlanta wins all of these tiebreaker scenarios on that basis.
So there you go Falcon Fans!!!! It's right there for the taking
-QG
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I wondered what the scenario would be for them to make the playoffs and you so descriptively explained it for me. Thanks. 
Awesome post. 
I wondered what the scenario would be for them to make the playoffs and you so descriptively explained it for me. Thanks. 
I wondered what the scenario would be for them to make the playoffs and you so descriptively explained it for me. Thanks. 
If a couple other wacky ones come up in the coming weeks I'll certainly post those. Until then it's all about the Falcons baby!!!
and they were so close 
Hopefully we can get some strength of victory stuff involved which will REALLY make for some convoluted scenarios! Did you know that theoretically an NFC playoff spot could be decided but the Jets-Chiefs game the last week of the season? (Stay with me and suspend disbelief that NBC will actually keep that as the 8 PM game). Bizarre but true. Still holding out hope that that bit of craziness will happen one of these years.
I'm not pickin' on the Falcons themselves, per se, I originally wanted to this for my Bengals but they lost out at the conference record part of the equation 
If a couple other wacky ones come up in the coming weeks I'll certainly post those. Until then it's all about the Falcons baby!!!
