Keeper Draft pick help- Royce Freeman or Antonio Brown (1 Viewer)

[super sleeper]

Ok, got your attention! On the surface a ridiculous question.  But....

League has quirky rules.  Sorry for the long question, but to understand fully my question:

12 team, 5 man keeper, touchdown heavy non-PPR, QBs 6 pt. TDs

5 year contracts

One keeper has to be a rookie from previous season (ex. Fournette, JuJu this year)

I have the #4 pick. There are 3 no brainers coming off contract: L. Bell, A. Rodgers, and A. Brown. 

The first pick will be Barkley, without a doubt. The next 3 are up in the air.  I would take Bell or Rodgers without hesitation because my RBs are not so great (McCoy and Mack, my rookie) and I have a trade worked out for Cam (my keeper QB) if I wind up with Rodgers.  But AB scares me a bit.  While he'll obviously help in the short run, I don't think I get 5 years out of him,and feel like a decline is coming, while Freeman looks like a future superstar.  Plus, I have M. Thomas and TY Hilton, so while not AB, decent WRs in a start-2 WR league. Should I roll the dice on a potential game-changer, or take the safe pick?  As an FYI, based on CBS rankings, Freeman is #9 on the board and they don't even take our rookie premium into account.  There aren't many "studs" on the board.  You're looking at guys like Burkhead and T. Coleman sitting ahead of him.

Thanks so much for any thoughts on this.

 

[beerbuff]

You probably won't get 5 years out of Rodgers either. A lot depends on what you get out of the Cam trade.  Between Brown and Freeman though I say you go with Brown. I wouldn't worry about the rookie thing. You can always find a rookie breakout player on waivers if you don't find one later in your draft and getting the top WR in the game is big over an unproven rookie who is starting the year in a timeshare.

 

[Gally]

You are way overthinking things.  5 yrs is a long way off and much can change over that time.  Brown is the easy choice and it's not even close. 

Secondly, it seems strange that QB's would go that early.  I guess it is kind of like the 6th round with the keeper aspect but still I wouldn't have QB's that high in general unless everyone keeps QB's and there are no QB's to be had. 

 

[super sleeper]

Yes, all the top QBs are protected.  After Rodgers, you are looking at Garropolo, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, guys like that.

 

[Gally]

Yes, all the top QBs are protected.  After Rodgers, you are looking at Garropolo, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, guys like that.

I don't have any issues with those QB choices.  I think they will all have good seasons and if you can get them later even better.  On top of that you already said you have Cam so no reason to take Rodgers unless your trade of Cam is tremendous value on your side.  I think you wait on QB based on the choices shown.

 

[super sleeper]

Well this didn't go quite as planned.  Barkley was #1, ABrown went #2, ARodgers went #3 and Leveon Bell fell into my lap.  No-brainer there.  Thanks for responses.  FYI, Freeman went #5 as expected.