Keeper / Draft position Help, WHIR (1 Viewer)

[4th&inches]

Posted this before, but have narrowed the focus to (hopefully) limit the amount of variance. 

Background/ League info:

• 12-team, keeper rules are the following:
  
  Can keep up to 3 players drafted after round 5 (so 6th round = 1st keeper round)
  
• Year 1 = 1 round prior to draft round (drafted in round 6 = 5th round pick), if added as FA = last round keeper
  
• Year 2 = 1/2 of previous year keeper round (kept in year 1 for a 6th round pick = 3rd round pick in year 2)
  
• Year 3 = 1st round pick. 
  

[*]Start: QRRWWTFKD

[*]Scoring: .5PPR, 4pts passing TD, 6pt all other TD's

Keepers: Bold = already keeping (keeper rounds & year in parentheses):

• Alvin Kamara (11th round - 1st year) 
  
• Deshaun Watson (17th round 1st year) 
  
•  
  
• David Johnson (1st round - 3rd year)
  
• Alex Collins (16th round - 1st year)
  

Scenario: We have a Draft Lottery so we're able to choose our draft position. I pulled the 3rd spot (1 & 2 are going w/ the 1st & 2nd spots). would you:

• Pick the 3rd spot, keep Collins for a 16th rd pick, draft Zeke/Bell/DJ (whoever is there)
  
  
  mocks I've done nets me a combo of: TY/ Hill/ Cooks/ Diggs/ Fitz/ Olsen in the 2nd & 3rd rounds
  
  
  After 3 rounds, team looks like: DJ/Zeke/Bell, Kamara, Collins, D. Watson, (one of the above combo)
  

[*]@ TE: end up with either reaching a little for Olsen/ Graham or targeting a Burton-type


[*]Pick in the 12 spot, keep DJ  with the 1.12 pick (Throw Collins back into the draft pool) & target Gronk with the 2.01 pick

• 
  mocks I've done net me a combo of: Tate/ D. Thomas/ Cooks/ Landry/ J. Gordon/ A. Robinson/ Hogan in the 3/4 turn
  
  After 4 rounds, team looks like: DJ, Kamara, Gronk, D. Watson, (one of the above combo)
  

Notable early-ish round players I expect to be kept, not including the above mentioend (keeper round in parentheses):

• M. Thomas (4th round)
  
• Hunt (5th round)
  
• Howard (6th round)
  
• Ertz (7th round)
  
• D. Adams (7th round)
  
• M. Jones (8th round)
  
• Thielen (8th round)
  
• McKinnon (17th round)
  
• Engram (17th round)
  
• Goodwin (17th round)
  
• Juju (17th round)
  
• Drake (17th round)
  

sorry for the length, but will help answer anyone who leaves a link here. 

Thanks

 

[The Yeti]

I like the thought of keeping Collins for a 16th AND getting another top 5 RB at 1.03. You'll pretty much be solid on your RBs right out of the gate and focus on taking other positions for the first few rounds like you said. Collins just represents great value at that spot in my opinion. You're getting an RB2 as your RB3 at a RB5 or 6 price.

 

[DarkKnightsGuru]

Collins for sure 

 

[downsouth]

If you keep Collins, I assume your 2nd round pick drops significantly from the 2.01 to the end of the round. So is the 2nd round bump worth more than Collins? 

 

[4th&inches]

If you keep Collins, I assume your 2nd round pick drops significantly from the 2.01 to the end of the round. So is the 2nd round bump worth more than Collins? 

That’s my dilemma. I’d really like to get Gronk, but then I’d lose the value of Collins’ keeper pick + still be looking for a WR1 at 3.12/4.01. 

On the other hand, if I keep Collins, I’d have 2x RB1’s + Collins who has a potential to be a low RB1 in my flex. Then whichever WR’s fall to me in rounds 2/3 to be my WR1&2. At that point I’d basically look to get a Graham/ Olsen/ Rudolph/  Burton/ Reed/ Njoku at TE. 

I’m leaning toward keeping Collins, but am trying to cover all angles before making the decision.

 

[gtudor]

I like keeping Collins over the alternative as well.

 

[Brisco54]

It seems to me that if you keep Collins, if all goes as planned, you will have

Kamara/or the 1.3 pick using up your 1st round pick and Collins using up your 8th round pick

versus having

One of Kamara/DJ/Gronk for the first round pick.  

Collins seems to be the obvious choice because he allows for a two year keep. 

 

[4th&inches]

It seems to me that if you keep Collins, if all goes as planned, you will have

Kamara/or the 1.3 pick using up your 1st round pick and Collins using up your 8th round pick

versus having

One of Kamara/DJ/Gronk for the first round pick.  

Collins seems to be the obvious choice because he allows for a two year keep. 

Thanks for the response. To your point, if I keep Collins, it would look like: Kamara kept for an 11th round pick, D. Watson for a 17th round pick, & Collins for a 16th round pick. I'd then draft at 1.03 and take 1 of: Gurley/ Zeke/ DJ/ Bell . 

vs. 

Kamara in the 11th, Watson in the 17th, and DJ in the 1st (1.12 to maximize value) and then taking Gronk at 2.02. 

 

[Brisco54]

Thanks for the response. To your point, if I keep Collins, it would look like: Kamara kept for an 11th round pick, D. Watson for a 17th round pick, & Collins for a 16th round pick. I'd then draft at 1.03 and take 1 of: Gurley/ Zeke/ DJ/ Bell . 

vs. 

Kamara in the 11th, Watson in the 17th, and DJ in the 1st (1.12 to maximize value) and then taking Gronk at 2.02. 

Sorry for the confusion, but I was focusing on the keeper option that Collins provides for one more year. Now that I look at it, however, I realize I may have misunderstood your keeper rules.  I was thinking Kamara was heading into his third year as your player so would cost a 1st next year.  Oops.

So I guess, instead what I am saying is that you lose DJ after this year no matter what, so your keeper options for next year are:

Watson for a 9th, Collins for an 8th, and Kamara for a 6th? (Do you round up or down on the 1/2 round?  If you round down, what do you do about Collins & Watson since both would cost an 8th?)

OR

Watson for a 9th and Kamara for a 6th plus some player you will draft in the 6th or later round this year.

If Collins performs anywhere near his current ADP, keeping him for an 8th is a great deal.

FOR THIS YEAR - I think you are leaving a valuable pick out of your analysis.  For discussions sake, let's assume you will take DJ at 1.03.  The Collins keeper decision becomes:

DJ + pick 2.1 (Gronk) + Kamara + Watson + a 16th round pick

For:

DJ + pick 2.10 (+ Kamara + Watson) + Collins 

Eliminating the common factors to simplify the equation its:

pick 2.1 + a 16th round pick

versus

pick 2.10 + Alex Collins 

At 2.10 you are probably looking at a solid WR (Evans (current ADP pick 2.10), TY Hilton (pick 3.03), Tyreek Hill (pick 3.05), Diggs (pick 3.06), or Amari Cooper (3.09) or a top 3 TE  (Kelce (pick 3.02) or Ertz at 3.10)

Personally I would not trade Collins plus Amari Cooper (let alone the rest of the above) to get Gronk in a redraft league.  Throw in the fact that you can keep Collins one more year and the decision gets even easier.  

 

[4th&inches]

Sorry for the confusion, but I was focusing on the keeper option that Collins provides for one more year. Now that I look at it, however, I realize I may have misunderstood your keeper rules.  I was thinking Kamara was heading into his third year as your player so would cost a 1st next year.  Oops.

So I guess, instead what I am saying is that you lose DJ after this year no matter what, so your keeper options for next year are:

Watson for a 9th, Collins for an 8th, and Kamara for a 6th? (Do you round up or down on the 1/2 round?  If you round down, what do you do about Collins & Watson since both would cost an 8th?)

OR

Watson for a 9th and Kamara for a 6th plus some player you will draft in the 6th or later round this year.

If Collins performs anywhere near his current ADP, keeping him for an 8th is a great deal.

FOR THIS YEAR - I think you are leaving a valuable pick out of your analysis.  For discussions sake, let's assume you will take DJ at 1.03.  The Collins keeper decision becomes:

DJ + pick 2.1 (Gronk) + Kamara + Watson + a 16th round pick

For:

DJ + pick 2.10 (+ Kamara + Watson) + Collins 

Eliminating the common factors to simplify the equation its:

pick 2.1 + a 16th round pick

versus

pick 2.10 + Alex Collins 

At 2.10 you are probably looking at a solid WR (Evans (current ADP pick 2.10), TY Hilton (pick 3.03), Tyreek Hill (pick 3.05), Diggs (pick 3.06), or Amari Cooper (3.09) or a top 3 TE  (Kelce (pick 3.02) or Ertz at 3.10)

Personally I would not trade Collins plus Amari Cooper (let alone the rest of the above) to get Gronk in a redraft league.  Throw in the fact that you can keep Collins one more year and the decision gets even easier.  

Thank you for the in depth response and all the thought put into it. 

To answer your question about 1/2 rounds, we round up. So, Collins would be an 8th round pick in year 2. Watson would be a 9th round pick in year 2 (they're both interchangeable since they were both "FA's", so I can choose who of Collins/ Watson to keep in the 17th and 16th).

After taking a step back and thinking about it more (and reading your analysis), I'm pretty sure i'll take that early pick. 

That being said, the person picking 1st threw a curve-ball and chose the 3rd pick. So, I'll now have either picks 1, 2, or 4 to decide on. It has to be 1 or 2 (whichever is left), right?

Thanks again

 

[DUKE11]

I believe the value of Collins as a 16th rounder is too hard to pass up. Add into the fact that you'll still get one of DJ/Zeke/ Bell with your pick at 3, I think that's the direction to go. 

Edit: Idk who would be available at #4, but I think it's key that you land one of those top 3 running backs so picking 1 or 2 sounds like a no brainer. 

Please help: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769237-trade-gronk-cook-for-leveon/

 

[4th&inches]

I believe the value of Collins as a 16th rounder is too hard to pass up. Add into the fact that you'll still get one of DJ/Zeke/ Bell with your pick at 3, I think that's the direction to go. 

Edit: Idk who would be available at #4, but I think it's key that you land one of those top 3 running backs so picking 1 or 2 sounds like a no brainer. 

Please help: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769237-trade-gronk-cook-for-leveon/

FWIW, While I'd rank them: Gurley, DJ/Bell (flip a coin), Zeke as the top 4, I'd be ok getting any of those 4. 

My worry is that something happens between now and my draft to where the "Consensus Top 4" turns into a Top 3... and that 4th pick causes more headaches than anything else. 

So yeah, 1 or 2 is likely the way to go I think.

 

[Brisco54]

That being said, the person picking 1st threw a curve-ball and chose the 3rd pick. So, I'll now have either picks 1, 2, or 4 to decide on. It has to be 1 or 2 (whichever is left), right?

FWIW, While I'd rank them: Gurley, DJ/Bell (flip a coin), Zeke as the top 4, I'd be ok getting any of those 4. 

My worry is that something happens between now and my draft to where the "Consensus Top 4" turns into a Top 3... and that 4th pick causes more headaches than anything else. 

So yeah, 1 or 2 is likely the way to go I think.

I love gurley so I would go 1.  I am not a big fan of DJ or Bell at that price (Injuries scare me on those two), so I would go 4 and take the risk rather than select one of those two at #2.