Keeper Help Request - Keep 2 (1 Viewer)

[jts15]

12 team league, 1 point PPR, 10 yards per point rushing/receiving, 6 point TD.  QB is 25 yards per point, 4 point pass TD.  We're only allowed to roster 5 RBs.

Keepers cost 1 round higher than last years draft round.  The second time you keep a player it costs 1st round pick.

My big question is...should I use my 1st rounder (pick #11) on Mike Thomas?  Or is there a better "value" here?  I'm thinking Thielen is the no brainer here but who goes with him?  I was leaning toward Henry before Lewis was signed.  Now I'm not so sure.

My roster of available keepers.  Keep 2 players.

Mike Thomas Round 1 Pick #11

Thielen Round 7

Jarvis Landry Round 4

Cam Newton Round 5

Derrick Henry Round 6

Crabtree Round 3

Thanks for any input.

 

[Brisco54]

12 team league, 1 point PPR, 10 yards per point rushing/receiving, 6 point TD.  QB is 25 yards per point, 4 point pass TD.  We're only allowed to roster 5 RBs.

Keepers cost 1 round higher than last years draft round.  The second time you keep a player it costs 1st round pick.

My big question is...should I use my 1st rounder (pick #11) on Mike Thomas?  Or is there a better "value" here?  I'm thinking Thielen is the no brainer here but who goes with him?  I was leaning toward Henry before Lewis was signed.  Now I'm not so sure.

My roster of available keepers.  Keep 2 players.

Mike Thomas Round 1 Pick #11

Thielen Round 7

Jarvis Landry Round 4

Cam Newton Round 5

Derrick Henry Round 6

Crabtree Round 3

Thanks for any input.

Couple questions:

1.  Where will you pick in the 1st if you don't take Thomas?

2.  Which other 1st round ADP players are probably going to be kept? that will not require a 1st round pick?

In this type of keeper league, you keep elite studs or the players whose value has increased more than a round in the past year.  

Of the six players listed, Thomas is the only one that could be called a potential 1st round pick, but only in certain situations.   His ADP is 15.  Assuming that is accurate, then you keep him if and only if the sum of your draft position + the number if top 14 ADP players that are kept that did not require a 1st round cost is 15 or greater.  

To show this by example, let's assume that of the top 14 players by ADP, four can be kept without losing a 1st round pick (Kamara, Fournette, Hunt & Cook).  Then if you pick 11th overall, Thomas will be there for you to select.  If you pick 8th overall in this situation and decide to keep Thomas, you are probably taking him at the cost of taking Gordon, DHop or ODB.  Bad idea.

Of the other five, Thielen is an obvious choice because you are getting a mid-third for the price of a 7th, of the others:

Landry - PPR ADP is 39 (mid -third for the price of a 4th) - meh

Newton - 60 (end of the 5th for the price of a 5th) - bad deal.

Henry - 40 (mid third for the price of a 6th) - best value of the options

Crabtree - 63 (7th for the price of a third) - horrible deal

So, if the sum, above is 15 or more, keep Thomas,... if it is 14 or less, keep Henry

 

[danashort]

thielen...

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769166-1st-draft-pick-and-keepers/

 

[beerbuff]

If you don't keep Thomas who do you think you will draft in that spot? Without knowing that it is impossible to tell you if Thomas is a big enough value or not. If you do not keep him I'd keep Henry and Theilen. 

 

[jts15]

Thanks for the replies.

I am picking #11 but unfortunately I won't see the other keepers until Monday.  By looking at who is eligible to be kept my guess is that only Kamara and K. Allen will be kept that don't require a first rounder.

I think I see what you are saying.  If I keep Henry, and the keepers go as I think they are, most likely I will be able to get Mike Thomas at 11...or a player I have ranked higher.  Sounds about right.

I'll update when I find out who the keepers are.  Thanks again.