Keeper help; WHIR (1 Viewer)

[4th&inches]

In a 12-team, non-ppr, 6pt for all TD's, 3yr keeper league where the keeper rules are the following:

1. Can keep up to 3 players drafted after round 5 (so 6th round = 1st keeper round)
   
2. Players can be kept in year 1 at a cost of 1 round prior to draft round (drafted in round 6 = 5th round pick), if added as FA = last round keeper
   
3. Year 2 = 1/2 of previous year keeper round (kept in year 1 for a 6th round pick = 3rd round pick in year 2)
   
4. Year 3 = 1st round pick. 
   

Start: QRRWWTFKD

I have the below potential keepers (keeper rounds in parentheses):

• Alvin Kamara (11th round - 1st year) - Keeping 100%
  
•  
  
• Deshaun Watson (17th round 1st year) 
  
• David Johnson (1st round - 3rd year) 
  
• Kenyan Drake (17th round - 1st year) - 
  
• Alex Collins (17th round - 1st year)
  
• Josh Gordon (17th round - 1st year)
  

Kamara is getting kept obviously. So, I have 2 spots left for the above players. 

Could use some advise and will reply to all who leave a link. 

 

[jwsbowler]

since it's his 3rd year, and I have him ranked 3rd, I would keep Johnson, then Watson.  

 

[4th&inches]

since it's his 3rd year, and I have him ranked 3rd, I would keep Johnson, then Watson.  

Was leaning Watson as well. top 5 potential QB for a last round pick is enticing.

As for Johnson, you'd rather lose your 1st round pick to keep him vs. keeping Drake, Collins, or Josh Gordon in the 17th round? That's one i've been pondering and would love to get some insight into others thoughts on that one.

Thanks again for the post

 

[jwsbowler]

Was leaning Watson as well. top 5 potential QB for a last round pick is enticing.

As for Johnson, you'd rather lose your 1st round pick to keep him vs. keeping Drake, Collins, or Josh Gordon in the 17th round? That's one i've been pondering and would love to get some insight into others thoughts on that one.

Thanks again for the post

Yes... With Johnson and Kamara, you will have a solid 1 - 2 RB group, knowing you have to start at least 2.  You know if you drop him back, he's gone within the top 2 picks.  Also, what is your pick order in each round?

 

[4th&inches]

Yes... With Johnson and Kamara, you will have a solid 1 - 2 RB group, knowing you have to start at least 2.  You know if you drop him back, he's gone within the top 2 picks.  Also, what is your pick order in each round?

That was going to be my next point. Our league holds a "Draft Lottery" where we pull names (1-12), then 1st person gets to choose what draft spot they want, 2nd person then chooses, and so on. 

So, hypothetically, if I get an early enough choice, I could decide to:

• pick the 12th spot, keep Johnson with that 12th pick, and then have the 13th pick immediately after
  
• pick spots 1-4, draft Gurley, Bell, Elliot, or Johnson, and then choose to use that last keeper spot on one of the other guys 
  

 

[jwsbowler]

That was going to be my next point. Our league holds a "Draft Lottery" where we pull names (1-12), then 1st person gets to choose what draft spot they want, 2nd person then chooses, and so on. 

So, hypothetically, if I get an early enough choice, I could decide to:

• pick the 12th spot, keep Johnson with that 12th pick, and then have the 13th pick immediately after
  
• pick spots 1-4, draft Gurley, Bell, Elliot, or Johnson, and then choose to use that last keeper spot on one of the other guys 
  

I would assume that his Lottery happens after you declare keepers?  I am not a huge risk taker, I would still kepp Johnson... and if you get the good choics spot, I would either do 11 or 12.  I do like the around the corner picks...but sometimes I have two or three that I am interested in and having pick 11, then let the other owner pick his two, leaving me the remaining player is okay in my books.  And I do understand having back to back picks is solid also.  

But, with the luck of the draw, I would rather have the player in my hand already.

 

[4th&inches]

I would assume that his Lottery happens after you declare keepers?  I am not a huge risk taker, I would still kepp Johnson... and if you get the good choics spot, I would either do 11 or 12.  I do like the around the corner picks...but sometimes I have two or three that I am interested in and having pick 11, then let the other owner pick his two, leaving me the remaining player is okay in my books.  And I do understand having back to back picks is solid also.  

But, with the luck of the draw, I would rather have the player in my hand already.

We will actually have the lottery prior to declaring keepers. So, once we hold that lottery, I'll have a better idea of my exact options, but would like to have a good idea prior to that.

 

[jwsbowler]

We will actually have the lottery prior to declaring keepers. So, once we hold that lottery, I'll have a better idea of my exact options, but would like to have a good idea prior to that.

Can you get an idea as to which players the other owners might keep?  Knowing your draft spot "could" change things... as you say, if I have the 1st or 2nd pick, then if two of the major 4 RBs that you mention go back, you have the option of letting Johnson go.  I have tried to map out what the other owners might do for keepers in a previous local keeper league (and usually hit about 75-80%).  If that is the case, keeping Watson for a 17th is a no brainer, if you get the top type pick.

 

[4th&inches]

Can you get an idea as to which players the other owners might keep?  Knowing your draft spot "could" change things... as you say, if I have the 1st or 2nd pick, then if two of the major 4 RBs that you mention go back, you have the option of letting Johnson go.  I have tried to map out what the other owners might do for keepers in a previous local keeper league (and usually hit about 75-80%).  If that is the case, keeping Watson for a 17th is a no brainer, if you get the top type pick.

I have a list of potential keepers and I know for sure that the below players WILL be available to draft:

1. Gurley
   
2. Elliot
   
3. Bell
   
4. Fournette
   
5. Barkley
   
6. Gordon
   
7. Cook
   
8. A. Brown
   
9. Hopkins
   
10. Julio Jones
    
11. OBJ
    
12. D. Freeman
    

*The potential 1st/ 2nd rounders that I believe will be kept are listed below:

• Hunt - 5th round pick
  
• Kamara is kept by me
  
• DJ (potentially by me)
  
• Howard - 6th round
  
• McKinnon - 17th round
  

 

[Gally]

This is easy since you can wait to decide.   If you get a top 4 ish pick then keep your later round options.  If you have a late pick keep DJ.

 

[Brandon Will]

Johnson Watson 

 

[4th&inches]

This is easy since you can wait to decide.   If you get a top 4 ish pick then keep your later round options.  If you have a late pick keep DJ.

Since I'll be able to choose my spot (depending what my lottery spot ends up being), let's say I'm able to get the 2nd choice and the 1st picks the 1st spot. 

Would you rather:

keep DJ and choose the 11 or 12th spot

or

keep Drake/ Collins/ J.Gordon and pick the #2 spot?

Thanks for the post and insight

 

[Gally]

Since I'll be able to choose my spot (depending what my lottery spot ends up being), let's say I'm able to get the 2nd choice and the 1st picks the 1st spot. 

Would you rather:

keep DJ and choose the 11 or 12th spot

or

keep Drake/ Collins/ J.Gordon and pick the #2 spot?

Thanks for the post and insight

I am not really a big fan of your other choices.  They are good value but I don't really like them so I keep DJ and pick 10-12.

 

[TX Steel]

Thanks for your help.

My initial thought was to keep DJ and Watson.  I think DJ will be back to full speed and even when the Cardinals were bad, he was a stud.  Since all TDs are worth 6 pts, that raises the value of QBs.  I don't know if Watson will return to his pre-injury form, but he's still going to be a very good fantasy QB.

With your pick order situation, I agree that if you land a top pick to pass on keeping DJ (you might even draft him straight up), and look at another late-round option as a keeper.  Out of the names you listed, I see Gordon as having the most upside.  I don't know if any of those guys will hit their ceiling (both RBs have murky situations and Gordon is an off-field risk), but you're playing with house money with that late of a pick.

Good luck!

 

[bkterps]

Definitely keep Watson and Kamara.  I agree with the strategy of if you have an early pick, keep Gordon and draft either Gurley/Elliot/Bell/DJ.  If you have a late pick, you need to keep DJ.  Having that Kamara/STUD RB 1-2 punch is a great base!

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/768131-possible-draft-position-tradeplease-advise/

 

[Gally]

Thanks for your help.

My initial thought was to keep DJ and Watson.  I think DJ will be back to full speed and even when the Cardinals were bad, he was a stud.  Since all TDs are worth 6 pts, that raises the value of QBs.  I don't know if Watson will return to his pre-injury form, but he's still going to be a very good fantasy QB.

With your pick order situation, I agree that if you land a top pick to pass on keeping DJ (you might even draft him straight up), and look at another late-round option as a keeper.  Out of the names you listed, I see Gordon as having the most upside.  I don't know if any of those guys will hit their ceiling (both RBs have murky situations and Gordon is an off-field risk), but you're playing with house money with that late of a pick.

Good luck!

I disagree with this statement.  It actually hurts running qb's like Watson because it diminishes their rushing TDs value with respect to other qb's.  QB value relative to other qb's stays the same in general but it makes me drop the value of Newton and Watson types because their rushing TD's don't give added value.

 

[Gawain]

Regardless of the draft lottery, I keep DJ unless I end up with a top-5 pick (Gurley/Bell/Barkley/DJ/Elliott).

The best case is to get a 1.12 and keep DJ because one of the players that you list above is available at 2.01 (though Freeman looks out of place on that list).