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Keeper help (1 Viewer)

J to the bone

Footballguy
12 team .5 PPR league. We can keep 1 player from our 2017 final roster in the round they were drafted last year. I am pick #4 this year. 

Options: 

David Johnson - Round 1

Dalvin Cook - Round 2 

Adam Thielen - Round 9

I’m guessing these players will be kept by the other 11 managers: Gurley, Elliott, Hunt, Fournette, Kamara, Mixon, D.Watson, L.Fitzgerald, D.Adams, K.Allen, Wentz. 

With that being said, if I keep Dalvin Cook in the 2nd round, that leaves me with these choices at 1st pick: Bell, D.Johnson, A.Brown or Hopkins. I would love any 4 of those players but should I secure DJ in the 1st as a keeper or take the value pick with Thielen in the 9th? With so many top RBs being kept. I’m thinking of keeping Dalvin in the late 2nd Round, but should I be worried about L.Murray? 

 

The Yeti

Footballguy
I would go Thielen. You lock in a WR1 that is most likely going in the 3rd round for the cost of your 9th round pick. Just think that value is hard to pass up. You'll most likely end up with Hopkins at (1.04), but you'll have picks 2.09 and 3.04 to piece together a couple of solid RBs.

 
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J to the bone

Footballguy
I totally get the value with Thielen in the 9th round, however, here are the RBs I'm forced to take in rounds 2 and 3....McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, Drake. Assuming M.Gordon, D.Cook, Barkley, D.Freeman are taken in the 1st round or early 2nd round. If that were the case, I'd be forced to take Rodgers and a topTE in rounds 2 and 3. In a league where RBs are scarce and WRs are plentiful, I'm not sure I can do it. Love the feedback though!

 

The Yeti

Footballguy
J to the bone said:
I totally get the value with Thielen in the 9th round, however, here are the RBs I'm forced to take in rounds 2 and 3....McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, Drake. Assuming M.Gordon, D.Cook, Barkley, D.Freeman are taken in the 1st round or early 2nd round. If that were the case, I'd be forced to take Rodgers and a topTE in rounds 2 and 3. In a league where RBs are scarce and WRs are plentiful, I'm not sure I can do it. Love the feedback though!
That totally makes sense. I like to be strong RB, so that would definitely be the riskiest. If you take Thielen though, you could "reach" in your 1st round and take a RB like Cook or Melvin Gordon at 1.05, and then draft best available player after your 1st round. For me it's hard to pass up that value, but I guess it depends on the risk you're wanting to take. I'm having a similar dilemma with choosing between Kamara for my 1st or Gordon for my 2nd. It's better value to take Gordon, I just don't know who I'll end up with in the 1st round with most of the studs being kept. Making the value pick is definitely a high risk/high reward strategy. Personally though, being essentially guaranteed 2 WR1s is worth being a little weak at running back and just scouring the waiver wire or throwing some darts with late round picks hoping to get for this year's Kamara. 

 

milkdud_45

Footballguy
I agree.  I personally would probably go Thielen for the value at round 9.  He's been pretty solid the last few years, and it gives you options in those first two rounds (could get one of the 2 guys you were going to keep or one of the mentioned WR's).  Also, If healthy both Johnson and Cook should be studs, but we aren't sure how they will be coming off injury.

 

4th&inches

Footballguy
In this case, I think keeping DJ would be my last choice since you have a good shot at getting him back in the 1st. Next it's really how you view the 2 players. 

If you'd rather guarantee that RB1 (or even an awesome RB1 & 2 if you can get DJ/ Bell) then I'd keep Cook. Im not worried about Murray

If you'd rather get the best value, then Thielen is the play. then be sure to get at least 1 RB in rounds 1/2

Please take a look at mine:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769126-keeper-draft-position-help-whir/

 

J to the bone

Footballguy
I've just been caught in bad situations with taking WRs as keepers in past years. None have worked out thus far. If I did keep Thielen, I wouldn't reach for D.Cook/M.Gordon/Barkley. I couldn't pass on Hopkins at pick 4. Our roster is QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, DEF, so having Hopkins/Thielen as a WR1/2 combo would be stellar. I just don't think I'd get any good, reliable RBs in rounds 2 and 3. Decisions, decisions. I like talking about it though, cuz I was pretty set on D.Cook in the 2nd, but I needed some other opinions!

 

Cooper360

Footballguy
Comparing the injuries that DJ and Cook are coming back from, I would lean towards DJ with the lesser of the 2 injuries vs Cooks ACL. That leaves you to choose between Thielen and DJ. Thielen great value in the 9th, DJ stud RB1... Tough call but I would probably roll the dice, keep Thielen and hope 1 of the afore mentioned RBs slips to you at 1.4... Good Luck in your draft.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Since you have the 4th pick I wouldn't keep DJ since the other two choices are good value.  I would lean Thielen because an ACL isn't a guarantee to get back to form even though it seems like it is these days.

 

TripleThreat

Footballguy
It depends on how you view Cook and his situation ... you likely won't get a better RB in your 2nd round, but you never know what WR's will be available.  

I lean Thielan because of the above and I'm more hesitant on Cook this year. 

 

J to the bone

Footballguy
For those that are following....

I went with D.Cook in the late 2nd round. I know Thielen was the best value in Round 9, but considering all the RBs being kept(Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, Fournette, Hunt, Mixon, McKinnon), I didn't like my RB choices in the late 2nd or early 3rd (J.Howard if he falls that late, McCoy i like but suspension possibilities and groin issue, Drake with MIA off.line and Gore, Ingram suspended 4 games, L.Miller um yah, Henry oh no). I'm thinking D.Cook will go at the 8th or 9th pick. I want to go into this season secured with a RB1, granted I'll be taking a risk with the ACL nonsense. There is ton of WR depth this year and not a lot of solid RB depth that I'm comfortable with. No one better take my handcuff L.Murray lol

 
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