Keeper Help (1 Viewer)

[TVT 0 N S T A]

10 Team - shallow bench - keep 3 and the cost to keep is taken away from total draft budget:

Total Yard Accelerators for Passing - 500yds = 5 points, Receiving - 200yds = 5 points, Rushing - 200yds = 5 points.
Rushing/Receiving = 1 point per 10 yards
Passing = 1 point per 25 yards

I took over this league last year and kept Breece for $33 and Brian Robinson for $8.

Keeper - Cost
Breece Hall - $50
Bijan Robinson - $75
Kyren Williams - $12
Brian Robinson - $12
CeeDee Lamb - $54
Jonathon Taylor - $54
Rashee Rice - $1

Runningbacks in this league go for a lot - CMC over $100 and Austin Ekeler went for $75 to add some context. These are the list of viable keepers, in my opinion.

It is difficult to say what a top WR will go for, because the team that has Chase/Jefferson have held them on their rookie contracts and are paying very little. Lamb ($36), Diggs ($34), Davante Adams ($33) were the top 3 WR's taken last year. I do consider retaining Lamb @ $54 to be an overpay, while Robinson at $75 is probably a value based on recent drafts.

I am pretty confident in keeping Breece Hall and Kyren Williams for a total of $62 of $200. I think I am leaning Jonathon Taylor over Bijan just because of price but am intrigued to hold 2 of the top 3 (projected) RB's, but $63 distributed across 11 other players seems like a bad move. I won't get Bijan for less than $75 in the auction draft though. Any help is appreciated!

 

[Gally]

Here are my thoughts:

• I haven't been high on Kyren based on the off season and injury risk but at that price I think he is a must keep. The upside is too good and the price helps mitigate a lot of the risk.
• Prices seem way high for a $200 budget. I can't believe someone spent over 50% of their budget on one guy (CMC). That seems ludicrous to me.
• Lamb going for $36 in the auction last year makes it seem like you should through him back at $54 as you will likely be able to get him back for less.....especially with the hold out talk
• Breece at $50 seems reasonable for the costs you have outlined about top end RB's. I likely keep him at that price.
• Taylor is also a likely keep at $54 if RB's are truly that high in the auction.
• What are other teams likely to have available for the auction? Does everyone keep these high priced guys and go in with about $80 or less dollars?
• I could also see a strategy where you keep Kyren (do good of deal) and go in with $188 of cap space and control the auction. But I don't know how your league mates manage the cap as to whether or not that is a viable strategy.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Here are my thoughts:

• I haven't been high on Kyren based on the off season and injury risk but at that price I think he is a must keep. The upside is too good and the price helps mitigate a lot of the risk.
• Prices seem way high for a $200 budget. I can't believe someone spent over 50% of their budget on one guy (CMC). That seems ludicrous to me.
• Lamb going for $36 in the auction last year makes it seem like you should through him back at $54 as you will likely be able to get him back for less.....especially with the hold out talk
• Breece at $50 seems reasonable for the costs you have outlined about top end RB's. I likely keep him at that price.
• Taylor is also a likely keep at $54 if RB's are truly that high in the auction.
• What are other teams likely to have available for the auction? Does everyone keep these high priced guys and go in with about $80 or less dollars?
• I could also see a strategy where you keep Kyren (do good of deal) and go in with $188 of cap space and control the auction. But I don't know how your league mates manage the cap as to whether or not that is a viable strategy.

Thank you for the detailed response.

The Champ last year had a decent mix of low cost youth talent - ETN for $3, Amari Cooper for $8 but is actually the guy that paid $101 for CMC and $75 for Ekeler.

I made the mistake of drafting Cooper Kupp & JT, while holding post-injury Breece Hall, (at a perceived discount after seeing what Ekeler & CMC were going for). It is a short bench - 14 players, 5 bench, no IR or taxi.

Breece is a no-brainer, because I think he will go for double that price in the open market. Kyren has to be a keep, because the value is too great. Bijan Robinson went for $50 and nobody had seen a snap. Kyren Williams, easily, goes for that. Right? The question mark is probably is Bijan worth the $21 dollars in cost over JT? Or am I better to keep Bijan, JT and Breece and roll in there with $2 bids at the end of the draft?

From what I can tell, a lot of these long-standing owners are benefiting from Amon-Ra St. Brown for - $6, JaMarr Chase for - $18, Justin Jefferson for - $8, etc. These young stud receivers were drafted as $1 plays and panned out. I'm pretty confident I should hold 3RB's (not sure on the 3) and draft a DK Metcalf and some Diontae Johnson's to win this league. Then, I don't overspend on RB's and can take a couple shots at Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey or even Rome Odunze.

After what you have written, I am leaning JT, Breece and Kyren but my question is Kyren vs. Bijan vs. JT are the tier differentials so high that it makes sense to pay below the draft value to keep Bijan over either Kyren or JT?

I am chasing a team with Justin Jefferson & JaMarr Chase for $39 but they are going to spend their differential on RB's (Breece, McCaffrey, Bijan all probably go for above $80). There is also a team with Achane, Amon-Ra, Olave for $16. This is likely the last year to keep Bijan Robinson because his keeper cost will be $113 next year.

Out of the top 17 WR - the only ones expected to be available are - CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans the rest are young studs on cheap keeper deals.

If things break right, I could keep JT, Breece and Kyren for a couple years. I think it is less likely for Kyren... but hopeful I can hit on a young WR this year.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

has the day finally come where Gally is recommending keeping Williams?

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I think you keep Hall, Williams and Taylor and go into the draft with $82

 

[Gally]

has the day finally come where Gally is recommending keeping Williams?

Everyone is good at the right price.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Thank you @Gally and @BLOCKED_PUNT

What I am hearing is that JT is closer to the top tier of CMC, Bijan and Breece than the $21 difference in keeper costs.

I think I agree. JT should be the guy and the Colts have done a lot to build an offense.

I'll have to nominate a few RBs to level the draft budgets early but think there will be some value at WR for cheap and then grab a few of these rookies to build a pipeline of keepers.

 

[BassNBrew]

Given the way your league spends on RBs, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans should go for $5-$10.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Given the way your league spends on RBs, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans should go for $5-$10.

Lamb and Tyreek will probably go for under $40, possibly under $35 but the big money is spent on RBs. I will probably be in on Lamb or Tyreek for that much anyway, with me getting discounts on keeper RBs.

 

[BassNBrew]

Are those accelerators single game or cumulative over the season?

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Are those accelerators single game or cumulative over the season?

Single game accelerators. I didn't include all of the accelerators but plays resulting in a TD above 40 yards (passing, rushing, receiving) all account for 2 more points, beyond the total point accumulation.

 

[BassNBrew]

Are those accelerators single game or cumulative over the season?

Single game accelerators. I didn't include all of the accelerators but plays resulting in a TD above 40 yards (passing, rushing, receiving) all account for 2 more points, beyond the total point accumulation.

I have to ask why....

500 passing yards has been accomplished 3 times in the last 5 years.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Are those accelerators single game or cumulative over the season?

Single game accelerators. I didn't include all of the accelerators but plays resulting in a TD above 40 yards (passing, rushing, receiving) all account for 2 more points, beyond the total point accumulation.

I have to ask why....

500 passing yards has been accomplished 3 times in the last 5 years.

Yeah, the accelerators seem somewhat arbitrary. The 40 yard + TD scores seem to be more relevant.

QBs are very cheap in this league.

From what I can tell is it is just a function of the flurry of special WRs seen over the last few years and they're cheap to hold.

I'm going reverse order with RBs as keepers. I don't know why more people haven't done it this way but I'm about to find out.