Keeper Leagues (1 Viewer)

[BusMan]

My main league is a 12 team, keep 3, roster 15 ball of fun rolling into year seven. In the past, I've attempted to use some combination of redraft rankings and dynasty rookie drafts as a barometer of value in a keeper league. Just now I had a bit of a revelation: I should be looking at initial dynasty drafts of leagues with similar makeup (teams, rosters, scoring). Why hadn't I thought of this before? Does this strategy seem correct?

Any other keeper league gurus out there interested in chiming in and aiding my path to keeper nirvana?

 

[Pictus Cat]

Not-the-guru, but here is what I do.

I focus on geting players that will improve my team. This means at least top 24 potential. Hopefully better. If a player doesn't have that potential, then he isn't going to help your team much.

Look at the top 12. Usually RBs. 1 QB. 1WR. It would be nice to have two #1 RBs and the top WR. This is my goal.

RBs, don't have as long a career as a QB or WR, but it is easier to know your RB's will be top 12 or not.

QB & WR, how do you know which one is going to be #1?

So, I try to time my 'dominant' year by getting a young RB that will peek before my aging RB declines. (Using trades & waiver)

I have fun every year trying to predict and obtain the top WR. If he is young too, I'll probably have him longer than my RBs.

Currently I am a SJax, ADP, Wayne owner.

I avoid QB keepers because they are usually the easiest to make up for not having IMHO. I won't have Brady, Manning, Romo. If I do have them, they will get traded for top WR or RB I like.

One factor in top 3 leagues is do you have to keep 3 or can you pick up a replacement if you don't have 3 top 36. Keep trying build your overall value while seeing where your team is heading for each year for 3 -5 years, so this year, next year, year 3,4,5.

Good luck.

 

[thayman]

Not-the-guru, but here is what I do.

I focus on geting players that will improve my team. This means at least top 24 potential. Hopefully better. If a player doesn't have that potential, then he isn't going to help your team much.

Look at the top 12. Usually RBs. 1 QB. 1WR. It would be nice to have two #1 RBs and the top WR. This is my goal.

RBs, don't have as long a career as a QB or WR, but it is easier to know your RB's will be top 12 or not.

QB & WR, how do you know which one is going to be #1?

So, I try to time my 'dominant' year by getting a young RB that will peek before my aging RB declines. (Using trades & waiver)

I have fun every year trying to predict and obtain the top WR. If he is young too, I'll probably have him longer than my RBs.

Currently I am a SJax, ADP, Wayne owner.

I avoid QB keepers because they are usually the easiest to make up for not having IMHO. I won't have Brady, Manning, Romo. If I do have them, they will get traded for top WR or RB I like.

One factor in top 3 leagues is do you have to keep 3 or can you pick up a replacement if you don't have 3 top 36. Keep trying build your overall value while seeing where your team is heading for each year for 3 -5 years, so this year, next year, year 3,4,5.

Good luck.

The top QBs get shuffled around so much that it's pretty easy to get great value later in the draft.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think the first step is to evaluate who you plan on keeping. I am in a similar Keep 3 league and we can only keep two of the same position. I am most likely going to keep S-Jax, Barber and Fitz. I bring this up because, while it is prudent to look at initial dynasty rankings, if you have three young players to keep (like I do), it does me no good to select a Ray Rice-type if I believe he may sit on the bench this year, but will be good down the road. In my situation, I am going to go for best player available because my need to "grow" talent is a lot less this year than in previous seasons (I would be happy with these three going into '09 barring injury or unexpected bad play).

I am guessing you did not list who you plan on keeping in this thread in order to avoid a WDIKeep, but it may be helpful in order to determine your best strategy.

One exercise I just did the other week was to make a list of whom I think the Best three or four players (basically keeper worthy) on each team in my league to see where they stand. For the first time since our league began, everyone has three players in what I view as the Top 50, so no one is forced to make a trade for a better player. This also means there will be quality people available in the beginning of the first round (really round four if you think about it). As it stands, there is a chance Brown (my player) Plax, Grant, Jacobs, Welker and Holmes will all be available for me at pick #2. Do you know where you are drafting yet? If so, this exercise will give you an idea of what you can get and that may also effect who you decide to keep.

 

[thehornet]

My main league is a 12 team, keep 3, roster 15 ball of fun rolling into year seven. In the past, I've attempted to use some combination of redraft rankings and dynasty rookie drafts as a barometer of value in a keeper league. Just now I had a bit of a revelation: I should be looking at initial dynasty drafts of leagues with similar makeup (teams, rosters, scoring). Why hadn't I thought of this before? Does this strategy seem correct?Any other keeper league gurus out there interested in chiming in and aiding my path to keeper nirvana?

This is a good topic because a lot of people here don't play in dynasy or redraft, but more hybrid type leagues where you only keep 3 to 5 players with different keeper requirements.I play in a keep 3 leaque myself. After having played for a few years now, I have come to the conclusion that if you are in a small keeper league (3-5 kept players) then you should be looking at redraft rankings, NOT dynasty. This is especially true if you cannot keep your keepers forever. You will be drafting most of your team over with the excpetion of 3 players, so you should be looking to upgrade your team as much as possible for that year, rather than years dow nthe road. That being said, it is good to always be maintaining young RB's because they are valued so highly.

 

[BusMan]

I think the first step is to evaluate who you plan on keeping. I am in a similar Keep 3 league and we can only keep two of the same position. I am most likely going to keep S-Jax, Barber and Fitz. I bring this up because, while it is prudent to look at initial dynasty rankings, if you have three young players to keep (like I do), it does me no good to select a Ray Rice-type if I believe he may sit on the bench this year, but will be good down the road. In my situation, I am going to go for best player available because my need to "grow" talent is a lot less this year than in previous seasons (I would be happy with these three going into '09 barring injury or unexpected bad play).I am guessing you did not list who you plan on keeping in this thread in order to avoid a WDIKeep, but it may be helpful in order to determine your best strategy.One exercise I just did the other week was to make a list of whom I think the Best three or four players (basically keeper worthy) on each team in my league to see where they stand. For the first time since our league began, everyone has three players in what I view as the Top 50, so no one is forced to make a trade for a better player. This also means there will be quality people available in the beginning of the first round (really round four if you think about it). As it stands, there is a chance Brown (my player) Plax, Grant, Jacobs, Welker and Holmes will all be available for me at pick #2. Do you know where you are drafting yet? If so, this exercise will give you an idea of what you can get and that may also effect who you decide to keep.

Thanks, SL. One of the eccentricities of my home league is that we have to declare our keepers by the Pro Bowl. Yes, this has caused some headaches, particularly with past owners of Ricky Williams. I don't particularly like the rule, but it does make things interesting. I've got SJax, Barber, and Steve Smith (CAR).I also know where I'm drafting (#4), so I have a good sense of who is available and who each team is likely to take at each slot (or at least which position they'll likely target).The reason I was thinking about using initial dynasty drafts to evaluate available talent is to shine a light on value discrepancies in long term leagues. For example, both Ronnie Brown and Plaxico Burress are available in my league. In the HyperActive league initial dynasty drafts going on now, Brown went at 2.09 and 1.12, while Burress hasn't been drafted through three rounds. Now I might need Burress more than I need Brown this year, but Brown could also turn into Andre Johnson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh a few weeks into the year when a team needs a RB. I'm looking to highlight those big gaps in value so I can evaluate my team's ability to go BPA in the first round.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think the first step is to evaluate who you plan on keeping. I am in a similar Keep 3 league and we can only keep two of the same position. I am most likely going to keep S-Jax, Barber and Fitz. I bring this up because, while it is prudent to look at initial dynasty rankings, if you have three young players to keep (like I do), it does me no good to select a Ray Rice-type if I believe he may sit on the bench this year, but will be good down the road. In my situation, I am going to go for best player available because my need to "grow" talent is a lot less this year than in previous seasons (I would be happy with these three going into '09 barring injury or unexpected bad play).I am guessing you did not list who you plan on keeping in this thread in order to avoid a WDIKeep, but it may be helpful in order to determine your best strategy.One exercise I just did the other week was to make a list of whom I think the Best three or four players (basically keeper worthy) on each team in my league to see where they stand. For the first time since our league began, everyone has three players in what I view as the Top 50, so no one is forced to make a trade for a better player. This also means there will be quality people available in the beginning of the first round (really round four if you think about it). As it stands, there is a chance Brown (my player) Plax, Grant, Jacobs, Welker and Holmes will all be available for me at pick #2. Do you know where you are drafting yet? If so, this exercise will give you an idea of what you can get and that may also effect who you decide to keep.

Thanks, SL. One of the eccentricities of my home league is that we have to declare our keepers by the Pro Bowl. Yes, this has caused some headaches, particularly with past owners of Ricky Williams. I don't particularly like the rule, but it does make things interesting. I've got SJax, Barber, and Steve Smith (CAR).I also know where I'm drafting (#4), so I have a good sense of who is available and who each team is likely to take at each slot (or at least which position they'll likely target).The reason I was thinking about using initial dynasty drafts to evaluate available talent is to shine a light on value discrepancies in long term leagues. For example, both Ronnie Brown and Plaxico Burress are available in my league. In the HyperActive league initial dynasty drafts going on now, Brown went at 2.09 and 1.12, while Burress hasn't been drafted through three rounds. Now I might need Burress more than I need Brown this year, but Brown could also turn into Andre Johnson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh a few weeks into the year when a team needs a RB. I'm looking to highlight those big gaps in value so I can evaluate my team's ability to go BPA in the first round.

Seems as though you have three guys that are Top 25 players which is great. It is probably safe to assume McFadden will be gone before you choose, so that is one person you can cross off your list (and one draft spot too). Hard to say which way to go, because if you allow flex players, then Brown may be the good way to go. I see him being drafted really high in big keeper or dynasty settings, but again, in your situation, I would go into "redraft mode" and take the player you think can make the biggest impact this year (just MHO). I may grab Brown myself (I pick second), but I am tempted to go with a guy like Grant or Plax (assuming they are healthy), because an ACL is a tough injury to overcome. I am also torn about drafting a rookie RB, because there is a very good chance guys like Mendenhall and Stewart will be in a pure timeshare next year and if your other keepers do not disappoint and you want all three for '09, you are left dropping Stew or Mend and got very little output from them in '08 (like a wasted pick).

 

[BusMan]

My league is really active too, so it makes little sense to draft a rookie RB high, because they almost all get moved at some point. Of course, everyone wanted to have ADP last year, but even he was traded in my league. You're right---going into redraft mode likely makes the most sense. But I'll definitely be considering dynasty BPA.

 

[trollmonger]

My main league is a 12 team, keep 3, roster 15 ball of fun rolling into year seven. In the past, I've attempted to use some combination of redraft rankings and dynasty rookie drafts as a barometer of value in a keeper league. Just now I had a bit of a revelation: I should be looking at initial dynasty drafts of leagues with similar makeup (teams, rosters, scoring). Why hadn't I thought of this before? Does this strategy seem correct?Any other keeper league gurus out there interested in chiming in and aiding my path to keeper nirvana?

I think you should use initial dynasty rankings to choose keepers (although they come out a little late for your Pro Bowl deadline) and maybe the first couple of rounds. These are the players that will be core this year and into the future. In the later rounds, use a redraft list. You'll care less about potential and more about production at this point since it's unlikely you'll be keeping any of these players the following year. The Ray Rice example someone brought up earlier shows this. It's unlikely he helps you much this year and it's unlikely he'll be one of your keepers next year. You'd rather have a player who would provide some consistency in case you need him like in an injury situation.I sort of do this in my main league. Our keeper league is a little deeper so I put a little more weight on potential than I would in your league. We keep 3 but can then protect another every time a player is picked from your last year's roster.

 

[ForWhoForWhat]

Great topic.

I'm in a keep two league. I look at dynasty rankings and redraft rankings for both keepers and the draft, but naturally slant more towards dynasty rankings for keepers and redraft rankings for the draft. My philosophy with regards to the draft is to draft for the here and now - assume that my two keepers for 2008 will be the same for 2009 - so draft for production this year. However, my keepers this year are going to be Westbrook and Michael Turner, and I'm nervous about Turner. He could be great, but he could bust. I have no one better to keep, so not keeping Turner is out of the question, but my thinking this year is to maybe draft a stud possible keeper at my #2 spot in order to safeguard myself against Turner being a bust. I'd hate to do that and not get full production out of my #2 this year, but it's something I have to ponder. I love keeper leagues, the additional strategy involved makes it fun. Good luck to all.

 

[BusMan]

FWIW, I'd keep Turner too if I had him. In my keeper league, he's been tied up on the LT2's owner's team the past couple of years, so he isn't kept.

 

[senor peso 2006]

One exercise I just did the other week was to make a list of whom I think the Best three or four players (basically keeper worthy) on each team in my league to see where they stand.

I strongly agree with doing this exercise. I'm in a keep 4 league and this has always helped me see who is going to be available and who won't. The added twist in my league is you do not have to keep 4, so if a team scraps his whole roster he will pick up players before everyone else until he has 4 keepers. If there are multiple teams without 4 keepers they pick in order until they all have 4 and then we start the regular draft.

What I would add to the table is start tracking your draft if you aren't already. Record all the picks in order and round. I've done this for the last two years and figure after this years draft, I will have a very strong tool to determine how many RBs, QBs, WRs ... will go in the first 50 picks. We do IDP also so this tool shows me when and were they start flying off the board. With this said its been helping me to make smarter decisions in the draft especially in the late rounds.