Keeper question (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

Hey everyone,

I'm entering the 2nd year of my first ever dynasty league. My team was middle of the pack last year and today is the day we declare our keepers. The rules are pretty simple, you can keep any player but it'll cost you a pick 3 rounds higher. So, for example, if you drafted someone in the 12th round, you have to give up your 9th this year to keep him. We have a max of 6 keepers.

One of my no brainers has been Edison Volquez, who I drafted in the 21st round. This is a 12-team mixed 5x5 league and I can keep the young strikeout pitcher for an 18th rounder. On one hand, his ADP is 7th round which means a lot of people really value him. On the other, he SUCKED in the 2nd half of last year and I'm not sure he's worth his ADP, but he IS certainly worth an 18th rounder.

I'm being offered the 6th overall pick in exchange for the 21st overall [my 2nd rounder] and Volquez.

Anyone think I shouldn't pull the trigger here?

 

[Eephus]

Hey everyone,I'm entering the 2nd year of my first ever dynasty league. My team was middle of the pack last year and today is the day we declare our keepers. The rules are pretty simple, you can keep any player but it'll cost you a pick 3 rounds higher. So, for example, if you drafted someone in the 12th round, you have to give up your 9th this year to keep him. We have a max of 6 keepers.One of my no brainers has been Edison Volquez, who I drafted in the 21st round. This is a 12-team mixed 5x5 league and I can keep the young strikeout pitcher for an 18th rounder. On one hand, his ADP is 7th round which means a lot of people really value him. On the other, he SUCKED in the 2nd half of last year and I'm not sure he's worth his ADP, but he IS certainly worth an 18th rounder.I'm being offered the 6th overall pick in exchange for the 21st overall [my 2nd rounder] and Volquez.Anyone think I shouldn't pull the trigger here?

Who would you keep if you deal Volquez? He's a plus pitcher in Ks but will probably regress a bit in the other three SP categories. 7th round ADP sounds pretty high to me, but he's worth keeping for an 18th rounder.Your league format devalues draft choices because they're hard to keep. I suspect there's a lot of turnover of veteran guys like Vlad and Manny who have been high picks for a long time. 1.06 is going to be a good player but a one year proposition.

 

[Bobcat10]

How do you keep players that were chosen in the 1st 3 rounds in your draft last year?

 

[Jason Wood]

How do you keep players that were chosen in the 1st 3 rounds in your draft last year?

You can't keep anyone that was drafted in the first three rounds. I have the 4th overall pick and would be acquiring the 6th overall, as well. So I would be guaranteed two studs [guys like Hanley, Wright, Rollins, Sizemore, Santana are all available obviously]. On the other hand if Volquez progresses further, I could be giving up an ace that I would be in line to keep for multiple years [he would be a 15th rounder in 2010, 12th rounder in 2011, etc...]

 

[Jason Wood]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

 

[Bobcat10]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

So who are you keeper options after Volquez and who are your other keepers?I'd lean towards making the deal (or even countering with your 3rd or 4th rounder), but having that info would hammer it home I think. Probably a no brainer.

 

[Jason Wood]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

So who are you keeper options after Volquez and who are your other keepers?I'd lean towards making the deal (or even countering with your 3rd or 4th rounder), but having that info would hammer it home I think. Probably a no brainer.

I'm not keeping the six max with or without Volquez. If I keep Volquez I would have 5 keepers [bay, Billingsley, Greinke, Volquez, Danks], whereas if I traded him I would just keep the other three pitchers and Bay.

 

[Bobcat10]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

So who are you keeper options after Volquez and who are your other keepers?I'd lean towards making the deal (or even countering with your 3rd or 4th rounder), but having that info would hammer it home I think. Probably a no brainer.

I'm not keeping the six max with or without Volquez. If I keep Volquez I would have 5 keepers [bay, Billingsley, Greinke, Volquez, Danks], whereas if I traded him I would just keep the other three pitchers and Bay.

Hmm, no other late fliers to use a late-teen/early-20s pick on? Well then count me in for taking the deal. Depending on who you are dealing with, I might try to talk them down a little bit so you can keep your 2nd rounder....but that's not a showstopper imo.

 

[thehornet]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

It really depends on your league. If it is pitching heavy, like my CBS points Head to Head league then , i wouldnt do the deal, I would keep Volquez as an 18th until 2011. 12 teams at 6 keepers a piece (72 total if all keep 6) probably doesnt leave many if at all elite pitchers in the pool. Id venture to guess that Volquez would be a Top 5 available SP after keeper declarations are made. What type of talent is gonig to be around in the 6th round?

 

[Jason Wood]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

So who are you keeper options after Volquez and who are your other keepers?I'd lean towards making the deal (or even countering with your 3rd or 4th rounder), but having that info would hammer it home I think. Probably a no brainer.

I'm not keeping the six max with or without Volquez. If I keep Volquez I would have 5 keepers [bay, Billingsley, Greinke, Volquez, Danks], whereas if I traded him I would just keep the other three pitchers and Bay.

Hmm, no other late fliers to use a late-teen/early-20s pick on? Well then count me in for taking the deal. Depending on who you are dealing with, I might try to talk them down a little bit so you can keep your 2nd rounder....but that's not a showstopper imo.

I could keep Conor Jackson for a 15th [ADP of 13th round], but I'm not really a believer.

 

[MAC_32]

Scratch that...just found out I didn't read the rule totally correct. You can only keep a player for 3 years before throwing him back, so Volquez would only be able to be kept in 2009 for a 18th and then in 2010 for a 15th. He would be an FA no matter what in 2011.

So who are you keeper options after Volquez and who are your other keepers?I'd lean towards making the deal (or even countering with your 3rd or 4th rounder), but having that info would hammer it home I think. Probably a no brainer.

I'm not keeping the six max with or without Volquez. If I keep Volquez I would have 5 keepers [bay, Billingsley, Greinke, Volquez, Danks], whereas if I traded him I would just keep the other three pitchers and Bay.

Hmm, no other late fliers to use a late-teen/early-20s pick on? Well then count me in for taking the deal. Depending on who you are dealing with, I might try to talk them down a little bit so you can keep your 2nd rounder....but that's not a showstopper imo.

I could keep Conor Jackson for a 15th [ADP of 13th round], but I'm not really a believer.

I think you should do that and make the deal, lots of things concern me about Volquez. His control (or lack thereof) and his arm killing manager being the primary two reasons. Make the deal and get a nice bat with pick 6.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...

I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.

I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

 

[Eephus]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

I think you made the right move. Two picks in the first half dozen should make you a lot more competitive this year. It's not like you mortgaged the future. Volquez has upside but it's not unlimited given his command and ballpark.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

I think you made the right move. Two picks in the first half dozen should make you a lot more competitive this year. It's not like you mortgaged the future. Volquez has upside but it's not unlimited given his command and ballpark.

Thanks, plus his workload scares me. Dusty Baker is a pitcher killer, you know?And I'm keeping Billingsley, Danks and Greinke on the cheap anyway, so I have a solid, young foundation. Just need to put an ace in front of them and two decent late round guys behind them.

 

[thehornet]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

I think you made the right move. Two picks in the first half dozen should make you a lot more competitive this year. It's not like you mortgaged the future. Volquez has upside but it's not unlimited given his command and ballpark.

Thanks, plus his workload scares me. Dusty Baker is a pitcher killer, you know?And I'm keeping Billingsley, Danks and Greinke on the cheap anyway, so I have a solid, young foundation. Just need to put an ace in front of them and two decent late round guys behind them.

Fow whats it's worth, i think it was a mistake. Volquez is one of the best young arm's in the National League. A few scouts have said his raw stuff is top 3 in the NL and we all know he is a little further along in his development than that. Remeber, this is a kid that has ALREADY struggled badly with the Rangers. He has a already experienced that demoralizing first trip to the majors. It's what he has done since that is amazing. He cam back with a clear head and pitched admirably for the Rangers befor he was traded. We all know what he did after that. As for Baker running young arms into the ground, I agree. But i will say this.....everyone keeps saying he had a huge spike in innings. This isnt true. Between A, AA, AAA and majors in 2007 he pitched 180 innings. He pitched 196 last year. I see that is a gradual increase and not an unprecedented jump like others are alluding too. Once he gets the walks under control, watch out. Cincy is only getting better. There is no reason to believe he cannot win 17 games again, while improving his whip and maintaing the the k/9 and era.

 

[MAC_32]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

I think you made the right move. Two picks in the first half dozen should make you a lot more competitive this year. It's not like you mortgaged the future. Volquez has upside but it's not unlimited given his command and ballpark.

Thanks, plus his workload scares me. Dusty Baker is a pitcher killer, you know?And I'm keeping Billingsley, Danks and Greinke on the cheap anyway, so I have a solid, young foundation. Just need to put an ace in front of them and two decent late round guys behind them.

Fow whats it's worth, i think it was a mistake. Volquez is one of the best young arm's in the National League. A few scouts have said his raw stuff is top 3 in the NL and we all know he is a little further along in his development than that. Remeber, this is a kid that has ALREADY struggled badly with the Rangers. He has a already experienced that demoralizing first trip to the majors. It's what he has done since that is amazing. He cam back with a clear head and pitched admirably for the Rangers befor he was traded. We all know what he did after that. As for Baker running young arms into the ground, I agree. But i will say this.....everyone keeps saying he had a huge spike in innings. This isnt true. Between A, AA, AAA and majors in 2007 he pitched 180 innings. He pitched 196 last year. I see that is a gradual increase and not an unprecedented jump like others are alluding too. Once he gets the walks under control, watch out. Cincy is only getting better. There is no reason to believe he cannot win 17 games again, while improving his whip and maintaing the the k/9 and era.

For a flyball pitcher his HR rates seem almost too good. I'd expect some regression there which should raise his ERA to around 4 imo. 17 W's may prove difficult to come by given his current bullpen too.Don't get me wrong, Volquez is good, but he's not worth keeping when a top 5 bat can be had instead.

 

[thehornet]

Ended up getting a slightly sweeter deal...I got 6th and 115th overall, he got 21st, 124th and Volquez.I would've done the deal without the 10th/11th round swap, but he sweetened the pie and that got it done just under the wire.

I think you made the right move. Two picks in the first half dozen should make you a lot more competitive this year. It's not like you mortgaged the future. Volquez has upside but it's not unlimited given his command and ballpark.

Thanks, plus his workload scares me. Dusty Baker is a pitcher killer, you know?And I'm keeping Billingsley, Danks and Greinke on the cheap anyway, so I have a solid, young foundation. Just need to put an ace in front of them and two decent late round guys behind them.

Fow whats it's worth, i think it was a mistake. Volquez is one of the best young arm's in the National League. A few scouts have said his raw stuff is top 3 in the NL and we all know he is a little further along in his development than that. Remeber, this is a kid that has ALREADY struggled badly with the Rangers. He has a already experienced that demoralizing first trip to the majors. It's what he has done since that is amazing. He cam back with a clear head and pitched admirably for the Rangers befor he was traded. We all know what he did after that. As for Baker running young arms into the ground, I agree. But i will say this.....everyone keeps saying he had a huge spike in innings. This isnt true. Between A, AA, AAA and majors in 2007 he pitched 180 innings. He pitched 196 last year. I see that is a gradual increase and not an unprecedented jump like others are alluding too. Once he gets the walks under control, watch out. Cincy is only getting better. There is no reason to believe he cannot win 17 games again, while improving his whip and maintaing the the k/9 and era.

For a flyball pitcher his HR rates seem almost too good. I'd expect some regression there which should raise his ERA to around 4 imo. 17 W's may prove difficult to come by given his current bullpen too.Don't get me wrong, Volquez is good, but he's not worth keeping when a top 5 bat can be had instead.

i agree, but i dont think a top 5 can be had in the OP's question. He is getting a 6th round pick after 72 keepers if I read correctly.

 

[MAC_32]

For a flyball pitcher his HR rates seem almost too good. I'd expect some regression there which should raise his ERA to around 4 imo. 17 W's may prove difficult to come by given his current bullpen too.Don't get me wrong, Volquez is good, but he's not worth keeping when a top 5 bat can be had instead.

i agree, but i dont think a top 5 can be had in the OP's question. He is getting a 6th round pick after 72 keepers if I read correctly.

See post #4

 

[thehornet]

For a flyball pitcher his HR rates seem almost too good. I'd expect some regression there which should raise his ERA to around 4 imo. 17 W's may prove difficult to come by given his current bullpen too.Don't get me wrong, Volquez is good, but he's not worth keeping when a top 5 bat can be had instead.

i agree, but i dont think a top 5 can be had in the OP's question. He is getting a 6th round pick after 72 keepers if I read correctly.

See post #4

oh nice. Ya, id do the trade then

 

[Jason Wood]

oh nice. Ya, id do the trade then

Yep...that's the nuance. The only "keepers" that are gone are Ryan Braun, Tim Lincecum and, I believe, Josh Hamilton. Braun is the only guy I would've considered in the top 6 and probably wouldn't have taken, anyway.

 

[Jason Wood]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.

So now I have Braun in the mix.

Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

 

[MAC_32]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Braun will likely win three categories, Sizemore will likely win two. I've found the categories Sizemore wins (R's and SB's) are easier to fill throughout the draft. Hebrew Hammer for me.Who do you expect to draft with your other top 6 pick?

 

[Bobcat10]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Wouldn't Braun have been a top 3 round pick last year?

 

[Jason Wood]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Braun will likely win three categories, Sizemore will likely win two. I've found the categories Sizemore wins (R's and SB's) are easier to fill throughout the draft. Hebrew Hammer for me.Who do you expect to draft with your other top 6 pick?

Probably Wright, Reyes or Utley at 1.04 and then Braun/Sizemore at 1.06

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Wouldn't Braun have been a top 3 round pick last year?

Yep...he was a 3rd rounder; thought he went in the top of the 4th last year.

 

[MAC_32]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Braun will likely win three categories, Sizemore will likely win two. I've found the categories Sizemore wins (R's and SB's) are easier to fill throughout the draft. Hebrew Hammer for me.Who do you expect to draft with your other top 6 pick?

Probably Wright, Reyes or Utley at 1.04 and then Braun/Sizemore at 1.06

Probably Utley, I'd try to put a slight emphasis on steals with your next few bats unless some gems fall. You're falling behind in SB's a bit and you don't want to rely on guys like Tavares or Bourn late. I'm not saying to do anything crazy but if you're presented with a Vlad vs. Granderson type of decision Grandy may be the better choice.

 

[Jason Wood]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Braun will likely win three categories, Sizemore will likely win two. I've found the categories Sizemore wins (R's and SB's) are easier to fill throughout the draft. Hebrew Hammer for me.Who do you expect to draft with your other top 6 pick?

Probably Wright, Reyes or Utley at 1.04 and then Braun/Sizemore at 1.06

Probably Utley, I'd try to put a slight emphasis on steals with your next few bats unless some gems fall. You're falling behind in SB's a bit and you don't want to rely on guys like Tavares or Bourn late. I'm not saying to do anything crazy but if you're presented with a Vlad vs. Granderson type of decision Grandy may be the better choice.

I actually really dislike them both at projected ADP [Grandy/Vlad].

 

[MAC_32]

Interesting, keepers just announced and for some reason the owner didn't keep Braun either.So now I have Braun in the mix.Would you take Braun or Sizemore, and why?

Braun will likely win three categories, Sizemore will likely win two. I've found the categories Sizemore wins (R's and SB's) are easier to fill throughout the draft. Hebrew Hammer for me.Who do you expect to draft with your other top 6 pick?

Probably Wright, Reyes or Utley at 1.04 and then Braun/Sizemore at 1.06

Probably Utley, I'd try to put a slight emphasis on steals with your next few bats unless some gems fall. You're falling behind in SB's a bit and you don't want to rely on guys like Tavares or Bourn late. I'm not saying to do anything crazy but if you're presented with a Vlad vs. Granderson type of decision Grandy may be the better choice.

I actually really dislike them both at projected ADP [Grandy/Vlad].

I like Grandy