Keeper Strategy for Multiple Years (1 Viewer)

[Chairshot]

I'm currently in a league where 2 players can be kept for the price of their original draft round. Players may be kept for a maximum of 2 years with no increase in cost. I'm trying to sort out my keepers and I can't really figure out how to account for being able to keep a player in future years.

For example, I could keep Mendenhall for an 11th for one more year or I could keep Charles for a 3rd for 2 more years. Obviously, Mendenhall is a better value for the 11th, but being able to keep Charles for 2 years is also something that seems very valuable.

So, my question is: how would I go about accounting for the difference in cost versus the difference in contract length? Which is more valuable, having a player at a cheap price for one year or control of a player for 2? I'd especially like any sort of actual formulas that people may use that could apply across the board.

 

[E_Smith]

I'm currently in a league where 2 players can be kept for the price of their original draft round. Players may be kept for a maximum of 2 years with no increase in cost. I'm trying to sort out my keepers and I can't really figure out how to account for being able to keep a player in future years.For example, I could keep Mendenhall for an 11th for one more year or I could keep Charles for a 3rd for 2 more years. Obviously, Mendenhall is a better value for the 11th, but being able to keep Charles for 2 years is also something that seems very valuable. So, my question is: how would I go about accounting for the difference in cost versus the difference in contract length? Which is more valuable, having a player at a cheap price for one year or control of a player for 2? I'd especially like any sort of actual formulas that people may use that could apply across the board.

I would keep both if I could. I think you have to consider your draft position for this year and what running backs will be available to you...assuming most of them are kept anyway, my guess is that even in the first round there won't be many studs, so that by the third round you are really talking about a fifth round pick. Keeping Charles for two years at the real price of a fifth rounder seems like a great deal, so I would probably go with that. This assumes you buy into the current projections for Charles.

 

[ZWK]

If you want a formula, I'd use VBD value (points over baseline). Calculate the VBD of Charles for this year, minus the VBD of the player who you'd take in the 3rd round if you didn't keep Charles. That's the value of keeping Charles this year. Do the same for Mendenhall vs. an 11th rounder this year, that's the 2011 Mendenhall value. Then do the same for Charles in 2012, estimating his 2012 VBD value, to get the 2012 Charles value. Then estimate the VBD value that you'd get from having a new keeper next year if you go with Mendenhall (maybe look at everyone's keepers, and average them together, to estimate the value of a typical keeper?). One one side you have Charles 2011 + Charles 2012, and on the other side you have Mendenhall 2011 + new keeper 2012. Go with whichever VBD total is bigger.