Are these Risky players a sell? (1 Viewer)

[Gally]

Will he be a Top 4 QB like he's been the last 2 seasons

I am not sure where this is coming from. He was QB11 in 2023 and QB10 in 2024.

 

[Buckna]

Reid's never schemed open a WR1 like he did with Hill.

Did he scheme him open or was it that Hill was just un-guardable?

I think the later and remember Tyreek was a little frustrated with his usage in KC and can't disupute he went on to have the two best seasons of his career after he left.

100%. Tyreek is a special athlete, and it was a near perfect combo of Mahomes ability and Hill's ability to get open at will.

It was in fact a perfect pairing, a great show and all football fans lost something when it ended.

No doubt it was but Mahomes put up an MVP season the year after Hill left leading the league in yards and TD’s. And that was with just Kelce because it was bums like MVS & Juju as his WR’s.

 

[JohnnyU]

You guys are talking a lot about Mahomes, so is he a buy, sell or hold? LOL

 

[rockaction]

You guys are talking a lot about Mahomes, so is he a buy, sell or hold? LOL

I tell you what. I've thought about offering him for Maye or some guys with upside, and I can't pull that trigger. (Not that the person would necessarily be selling.) Because it's Patrick Mahomes. He's QB6 or 7 right now on most fantasy lists. I can't imagine him having a worse year than this past one, barring injury of course.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You guys are talking a lot about Mahomes, so is he a buy, sell or hold? LOL

I think he’s a dynasty sell. I sold in 2 leagues over the last 3 years. No ragerts. But so long as there’s someone out there who believes he’s got a top 4 FF season left in him, sell Mortimer, SELL!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You guys are talking a lot about Mahomes, so is he a buy, sell or hold? LOL

I tell you what. I've thought about offering him for Maye or some guys with upside, and I can't pull that trigger. (Not that the person would necessarily be selling.) Because it's Patrick Mahomes. He's QB6 or 7 right now on most fantasy lists. I can't imagine him having a worse year than this past one, barring injury of course.

If I could get a Maye+Nico+pick, or something like that, I’d do that all day every day. It’s free money. That’s why you should put PM on the block & see who bites.

Last off-season I got Herbert+Nico+2026 1st (which I turned into Josh Jacobs by trade) & 2nd in a SF and would make that deal again 100/100x. I ended up the 1-seed. Pivotal deal in a 16-teamer.

A few years back I rebuilt an entire team in a 12- team SF using a massive Mahomes deal to acquire picks/talent. That was coming off of 2022 though. He spiked that off-season. Forget the exact return - Higgins, 2x 1sts (ended up being 1.04 & 1.10) a 2nd, Zach Wilson & a RB? Something like that. Wilson was a bust, but the 1sts both ended up being cornerstone players, & Higgins value has held up.

Anyway, you should totally float PM & see what kind of offers you get. It only takes one to knock your socks off.’

 

[rockaction]

You guys are talking a lot about Mahomes, so is he a buy, sell or hold? LOL

I tell you what. I've thought about offering him for Maye or some guys with upside, and I can't pull that trigger. (Not that the person would necessarily be selling.) Because it's Patrick Mahomes. He's QB6 or 7 right now on most fantasy lists. I can't imagine him having a worse year than this past one, barring injury of course.

If I could get a Maye+Nico+pick, or something like that, I’d do that all day every day. It’s free money. That’s why you should put PM on the block & see who bites.

Last off-season I got Herbert+Nico+2026 1st (which I turned into Josh Jacobs by trade) & 2nd in a SF and would make that deal again 100/100x. I ended up the 1-seed. Pivotal deal in a 16-teamer.

A few years back I rebuilt an entire team in a 12- team SF using a massive Mahomes deal to acquire picks/talent. That was coming off of 2022 though. He spiked that off-season. Forget the exact return - Higgins, 2x 1sts (ended up being 1.04 & 1.10) a 2nd, Zach Wilson & a RB? Something like that. Wilson was a bust, but the 1sts both ended up being cornerstone players, & Higgins value has held up.

Anyway, you should totally float PM & see what kind of offers you get. It only takes one to knock your socks off.’

I get what you're saying, but it's not Superflex and I have no viable backups to speak of (Tyrod Taylor). I always plug and play a backup by the time it gets to Mahomes's bye week. Dealing Mahomes is like taking the queen out in chess to roam the board. Super risky, and above my pay grade. This is a dynasty team that has now made the finals three years running and hasn't lost because of Mahomes in Week 17 at all—and has had the requisite byes to clip a playoff game off each year, so I cannot complain. I think he's a guy you look at and just go, "Do I trust the Chiefs to go back and re-tool around him?"

I was convinced after the Tampa Super Bowl game that they would regroup, but they're so far behind with their OL this time and they might lose their second-best OL in FA, so the answer this time is that I'm not so sure.

 

[rockaction]

Is that selly player a risk?

 

[mjb03003]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

He was pretty meh the last 2 seasons. Injuries seem like an excuse.

Much better RL player than FF. I don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TD again.

If someone in your league does, sell Mahomes to them immediately.

 

[mjb03003]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

He was pretty meh the last 2 seasons. Injuries seem like an excuse.

Much better RL player than FF. I don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TD again.

If someone in your league does, sell Mahomes to them immediately.

There’s a massive gulf between “don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TDs again” and “he’s a very risky QB1”

Injuries to him, his weapons, Kelce aging (and also dealing with injuries last season), the defense being one of the best in the league… call them excuses if you want but the point is he was still a QB1 through it all.

My argument is if the Mahomes owner in your league has soured on him to the degree @Hot Sauce Guy has, He’s much more of a buy than a sell. “Risky QB1” would put him in the Brock Purdy/Baker Mayfield/Jordan Love territory and frankly that feels very reactionary.

ETA: it’s very easy to say that you should sell if anyone in your league believes he’s throwing for 50+ TDs again. That would mean they believed he was the overall QB1 he used to be, or at the very least top 3. He’s not ranked or valued there by pretty much anyone at the moment so the odds of finding that one owner who believes he’s going to go back to being THAT guy and is also willing to pay that price when the market has clearly moved lower are slim to none.

 

[MAC_32]

I need help understanding how LaPorta might be a sell. As a rookie he net 86-889-10 (120 targets) and after a slow start put up 48-579-7 (69 targets) in his final 12 games (68-820-10 pace). He's only 24 yo as of opening day and TE's breaking out early are the most reliable sign of having a ~10 yr starter.

Now, I understand his production to date indicates he might have a ceiling, but all that tells me is it'd be worthwhile to have a hedge. Cause if I'm moving LaPorta, who am I replacing him with? I have LaPorta-Njoku-Ferguson (Schoonmaker) in one league. I am trying to move the Dallas duo and position myself to get one of the rookie TE's. If I do that and they hit early, time to move 29 yo Chief, not 24 yo LaPorta.

 

[JohnnyU]

I need help understanding how LaPorta might be a sell. As a rookie he net 86-889-10 (120 targets) and after a slow start put up 48-579-7 (69 targets) in his final 12 games (68-820-10 pace). He's only 24 yo as of opening day and TE's breaking out early are the most reliable sign of having a ~10 yr starter.

Now, I understand his production to date indicates he might have a ceiling, but all that tells me is it'd be worthwhile to have a hedge. Cause if I'm moving LaPorta, who am I replacing him with? I have LaPorta-Njoku-Ferguson (Schoonmaker) in one league. I am trying to move the Dallas duo and position myself to get one of the rookie TE's. If I do that and they hit early, time to move 29 yo Chief, not 24 yo LaPorta.

I agree. I sure as hell wouldn't be in the business of selling LaPorta. However, I would be selliing Kincaid if the value is right and have in a couple of leagues last year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

He was pretty meh the last 2 seasons. Injuries seem like an excuse.

Much better RL player than FF. I don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TD again.

If someone in your league does, sell Mahomes to them immediately.

There’s a massive gulf between “don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TDs again” and “he’s a very risky QB1”

Injuries to him, his weapons, Kelce aging (and also dealing with injuries last season), the defense being one of the best in the league… call them excuses if you want but the point is he was still a QB1 through it all.

My argument is if the Mahomes owner in your league has soured on him to the degree @Hot Sauce Guy has, He’s much more of a buy than a sell. “Risky QB1” would put him in the Brock Purdy/Baker Mayfield/Jordan Love territory and frankly that feels very reactionary.

ETA: it’s very easy to say that you should sell if anyone in your league believes he’s throwing for 50+ TDs again. That would mean they believed he was the overall QB1 he used to be, or at the very least top 3. He’s not ranked or valued there by pretty much anyone at the moment so the odds of finding that one owner who believes he’s going to go back to being THAT guy and is also willing to pay that price when the market has clearly moved lower are slim to none.

What I originally said was that Mahomes is a “risky QB1 at his redraft ADP”

That’s an important inclusion. His price exceeds his value. That was my point.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I need help understanding how LaPorta might be a sell. As a rookie he net 86-889-10 (120 targets) and after a slow start put up 48-579-7 (69 targets) in his final 12 games (68-820-10 pace). He's only 24 yo as of opening day and TE's breaking out early are the most reliable sign of having a ~10 yr starter.

Now, I understand his production to date indicates he might have a ceiling, but all that tells me is it'd be worthwhile to have a hedge. Cause if I'm moving LaPorta, who am I replacing him with? I have LaPorta-Njoku-Ferguson (Schoonmaker) in one league. I am trying to move the Dallas duo and position myself to get one of the rookie TE's. If I do that and they hit early, time to move 29 yo Chief, not 24 yo LaPorta.

I agree. I sure as hell wouldn't be in the business of selling LaPorta. However, I would be selliing Kincaid if the value is right and have in a couple of leagues last year.

Unfortunately Kincaid’s value has tanked.

None of the lofty projections manifested - usage is king, and he was basically an afterthought in an offense that had 200+ vacated targets.

I made at least 5 offers over my 2 TE-P leagues & A few of them were massive overpays even at the time.

Thank goodness they rejected. I like Kincaid, but unless he starts to get the targets, he’s all hype at this point.

If you still believe in Kincaid maybe it’s a good buy-low oppprtunity, but I’m out

 

[MAC_32]

Unfortunately Kincaid’s value has tanked.

None of the lofty projections manifested - usage is king, and he was basically an afterthought in an offense that had 200+ vacated targets.

I made at least 5 offers over my 2 TE-P leagues & A few of them were massive overpays even at the time.

Thank goodness they rejected. I like Kincaid, but unless he starts to get the targets, he’s all hype at this point.

If you still believe in Kincaid maybe it’s a good buy-low oppprtunity, but I’m out

Right- Shakir was their most targeted player (100) and Coleman's still acclimating (57 in 13 G's). Despite that they fed Mack Hollins 50 targets, Curtis Samuel 46, traded for Amari Cooper then only gave him 32, and Kincaid landed somewhere in between.

Unfortunately, a lot of parallels between his start and Noah Fant's.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unfortunately Kincaid’s value has tanked.

None of the lofty projections manifested - usage is king, and he was basically an afterthought in an offense that had 200+ vacated targets.

I made at least 5 offers over my 2 TE-P leagues & A few of them were massive overpays even at the time.

Thank goodness they rejected. I like Kincaid, but unless he starts to get the targets, he’s all hype at this point.

If you still believe in Kincaid maybe it’s a good buy-low oppprtunity, but I’m out

Right- Shakir was their most targeted player (100) and Coleman's still acclimating (57 in 13 G's). Despite that they fed Mack Hollins 50 targets, Curtis Samuel 46, traded for Amari Cooper then only gave him 32, and Kincaid landed somewhere in between.

Unfortunately, a lot of parallels between his start and Noah Fant's.

You’d think they’d at least have targeted him in the red zone, but nope.

 

[mjb03003]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

He was pretty meh the last 2 seasons. Injuries seem like an excuse.

Much better RL player than FF. I don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TD again.

If someone in your league does, sell Mahomes to them immediately.

There’s a massive gulf between “don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TDs again” and “he’s a very risky QB1”

Injuries to him, his weapons, Kelce aging (and also dealing with injuries last season), the defense being one of the best in the league… call them excuses if you want but the point is he was still a QB1 through it all.

My argument is if the Mahomes owner in your league has soured on him to the degree @Hot Sauce Guy has, He’s much more of a buy than a sell. “Risky QB1” would put him in the Brock Purdy/Baker Mayfield/Jordan Love territory and frankly that feels very reactionary.

ETA: it’s very easy to say that you should sell if anyone in your league believes he’s throwing for 50+ TDs again. That would mean they believed he was the overall QB1 he used to be, or at the very least top 3. He’s not ranked or valued there by pretty much anyone at the moment so the odds of finding that one owner who believes he’s going to go back to being THAT guy and is also willing to pay that price when the market has clearly moved lower are slim to none.

What I originally said was that Mahomes is a “risky QB1 at his redraft ADP”

That’s an important inclusion. His price exceeds his value. That was my point.

Went back and read your full quoted post and all the others in this thread about Mahomes. I see that I may have misinterpreted the format you were talking about.

Still think Mahomes will be a fine QB1 in redraft and his ADP is likely to be more palatable than it’s been in years. Since this is mostly dynasty discussion, I stand by the position that as people continue to highlight weaknesses in Mahomes’ game and his relative struggles the past two seasons, he becomes more of a buy than a sell. ADP movement in redraft tends to carry over into dynasty to some degree.

 

[menobrown]

. I think it’s fair to say he’s a very risky QB1 in start-1 QB leagues. He’s a safe QB2 in SF, but that’s not really how anyone who rosters him wants him to perform.

If this is how people feel about Mahomes, I think he’s a clear buy. He’s never failed to be a QB1 in fantasy, and the loss of key weapons (Rice, Brown, Pacheco) and Kelce’s gradual but considerable decline have been well documented. KC may not go back to playing shootouts every week but their defense may have already peaked based on the age of their top players and the challenge of keeping all their FAs. I believe they can and will continue to put good weapons around Mahomes and he will continue to churn out QB1 seasons for many more years.

He was pretty meh the last 2 seasons. Injuries seem like an excuse.

Much better RL player than FF. I don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TD again.

If someone in your league does, sell Mahomes to them immediately.

There’s a massive gulf between “don’t see him ever throwing 50+ TDs again” and “he’s a very risky QB1”

Injuries to him, his weapons, Kelce aging (and also dealing with injuries last season), the defense being one of the best in the league… call them excuses if you want but the point is he was still a QB1 through it all.

My argument is if the Mahomes owner in your league has soured on him to the degree @Hot Sauce Guy has, He’s much more of a buy than a sell. “Risky QB1” would put him in the Brock Purdy/Baker Mayfield/Jordan Love territory and frankly that feels very reactionary.

ETA: it’s very easy to say that you should sell if anyone in your league believes he’s throwing for 50+ TDs again. That would mean they believed he was the overall QB1 he used to be, or at the very least top 3. He’s not ranked or valued there by pretty much anyone at the moment so the odds of finding that one owner who believes he’s going to go back to being THAT guy and is also willing to pay that price when the market has clearly moved lower are slim to none.

What I originally said was that Mahomes is a “risky QB1 at his redraft ADP”

That’s an important inclusion. His price exceeds his value. That was my point.

Went back and read your full quoted post and all the others in this thread about Mahomes. I see that I may have misinterpreted the format you were talking about.

Still think Mahomes will be a fine QB1 in redraft and his ADP is likely to be more palatable than it’s been in years. Since this is mostly dynasty discussion, I stand by the position that as people continue to highlight weaknesses in Mahomes’ game and his relative struggles the past two seasons, he becomes more of a buy than a sell. ADP movement in redraft tends to carry over into dynasty to some degree.

Agree with everything you are saying.

Mahomes has been basically QB10 the past two seasons in PPG. Feel like he's been showing us his floor.

I've grabbed for him almost close to free in multiple dynasty leagues before he broke out. Have barely touched him in redraft since his second year/breakout season due to cost. Feel like I'll own him more in redraft this upcoming season more then I have since 2018.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Feel like I'll own him more in redraft this upcoming season more then I have since 2018.

If indeed his ADP slips to QB9-12 range, I’m absolutely in on him in redraft.

But IMO, that will never happen. FF heads will talk him up for days - Rice coming back, Worthy development, maybe defense take a hit in FA… I can hear the narratives now.

He’ll be drafted as a top 4 QB in redraft, and IMO will likely be out-performed by at least 5 QBs with later ADP.

But this is me speculating on what his redraft market will be. Obv I’m in at fair value. Im just skeptical we see that when hype SZN starts anew.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Went back and read your full quoted post and all the others in this thread about Mahomes. I see that I may have misinterpreted the format you were talking about

All good - I thought you might have. It’s always better to discuss apples with apples.

 

[menobrown]

Feel like I'll own him more in redraft this upcoming season more then I have since 2018.

If indeed his ADP slips to QB9-12 range, I’m absolutely in on him in redraft.

But IMO, that will never happen. FF heads will talk him up for days - Rice coming back, Worthy development, maybe defense take a hit in FA… I can hear the narratives now.

He’ll be drafted as a top 4 QB in redraft, and IMO will likely be out-performed by at least 5 QBs with later ADP.

But this is me speculating on what his redraft market will be. Obv I’m in at fair value. Im just skeptical we see that when hype SZN starts anew.

He's going as QB6 right now in FFPC leagues using the month of February but he's been dropping since the SB. Have done two drafts since and looked at a few and he's been going as QB7-8 in those drafts.

Barring something happening to the consensus top 5 or their main weapons I doubt he'll gain any momentum to move over them. Those 5 being Allen, Lamar, Hurts, Daniels and Burrow. Guess Burrow could lose Tee and get a little shakier on that 5 spot but not counting on it.

Baker is the QB who I've been seeing go as QB6 the most since the SB. But let me ask you in redraft other then those top 5 who would you take over Mahomes? Who in dynasty?

Whatever your answer it's probably not a great idea to be the guy drafting QB6 or QB7 in non-SF leagues right now unless you got a pairing you really want to make. Probably better standing on the sideline a bit and that's what I was actually thinking when I made my comment about drafting Mahomes more then I have in redraft since 2018 because I just finished a draft where I was going to wait but then Mahomes fell to where I was about to take him at QB8, pick 8.12. (he went 8.10, as QB8). If that's more the norm then the exception is what I was thinking when I made my comment.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Whatever your answer it's probably not a great idea to be the guy drafting QB6 or QB7 in non-SF leagues right now unless you got a pairing you really want to make. Probably better standing on the sideline a bit and that's what I was actually thinking when I made my comment about drafting Mahomes more then I have in redraft since 2018 because I just finished a draft where I was going to wait but then Mahomes fell to where I was about to take him at QB8, pick 8.12. (he went 8.10, as QB8). If that's more the norm then the exception is what I was thinking when I made my comment.

First, I think people drafting in February are probably not representative of the type of people drafting in July/August. lol

That said, I’m more likely to wait until a couple QBs slide to me late than reach for Mahomes before the 8th round. While I agree there’s a chance at a much higher ceiling, I’m skeptical he realizes it. And there are quite a few QBs who I believe will deliver close to his weekly average.

Again, this is dependent on me being correct, which as history shows is hardly a lock.

I just don’t wanna be the dude paying a 6th or 5th (where I suspect he’s going to be drafted as the season nears) and then have him put up a season similar to the last 2. That would be a massive bust at that price, and chances are decent you can get similar or better FF production out of some combo of Bryce Young, Caleb, Herbert (if SD lands a true WR1), Darnold (depending on landing spot) and a few others.

Heck, I’d probably rather take a shot at Stroud as an upside play in hopes he bounces back to 2023 levels of production. Thats a dude who’s stock is a bit down who I could see outplaying his ADP by a lot.

But I get your thinking, and I won’t fault you for it. It’s a sound calculation, and you might be right.

A lot of this is moot until we see where he’s actually being drafted come July-ish. I could see him creep ahead of Daniels, and maybe Mayfield. I agree he won’t be taken before LJax, Allen, Burrow, or Hurts.

Will be interesting to see how things shake out for redraft ADP nearer to the season.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Will he be a Top 4 QB like he's been the last 2 seasons

I am not sure where this is coming from. He was QB11 in 2023 and QB10 in 2024.

Yeah...I must have meant something else.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Will he be a Top 4 QB like he's been the last 2 seasons

I am not sure where this is coming from. He was QB11 in 2023 and QB10 in 2024.

Yeah...I must have meant something else.

I admit I’m curious what you meant there, too.