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Devil's Advocate
I see you live in Denver. I can almost guarantee you won't be getting any value on him if you live in the Northeast.
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kenbrell thompkins (2 Viewers)
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Fair? You are comparing him to some of the most elite WRs in the NFL, and you think that is a fair comparison? Only 6 of those WRs had the targets, catch rate, and YPR you are predicting. That's not fair, nor is it reasonable. Seriously?Tackling Dummies said:2012 catch rate:Bayhawks said:
Calvin 60
A Johnson 69
D Thomas 67
Decker 69
L Moore 64
Colston 64
Bryant 67
Crabtree 67
M Floyd 67
R White 64
R Cobb 77
62% is more than fair.
Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.
12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.
Smushinh numbers together? That is your idea of a rational, sound argument?
The fact is, you posted his "floor" as numbers that would require him to play like a top-10 NFL WR, to have the targets, catch rate, and YPR that you expect. That's not logical to expect from any rookie, no matter when he was drafted (or not).
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OG_GF
Footballguy
Stop being so rational. That is not what these people want to hear.Fair? You are comparing him to some of the most elite WRs in the NFL, and you think that is a fair comparison? Only 6 of those WRs had the targets, catch rate, and YPR you are predicting. That's not fair, nor is it reasonable. Seriously?Tackling Dummies said:2012 catch rate:Bayhawks said:
Calvin 60
A Johnson 69
D Thomas 67
Decker 69
L Moore 64
Colston 64
Bryant 67
Crabtree 67
M Floyd 67
R White 64
R Cobb 77
62% is more than fair.
Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.
12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.
Smushinh numbers together? That is your idea of a rational, sound argument?
The fact is, you posted his "floor" as numbers that would require him to play like a top-10 NFL WR, to have the targets, catch rate, and YPR that you expect. That's not logical to expect from any rookie, no matter when he was drafted (or not).
http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/2013_overunder_kenbrell_thompkins/14275751
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
First off, easy on the catch rate, there are TONS of WRs w/ higher than 62%Fair? You are comparing him to some of the most elite WRs in the NFL, and you think that is a fair comparison? Only 6 of those WRs had the targets, catch rate, and YPR you are predicting. That's not fair, nor is it reasonable. Seriously?Tackling Dummies said:2012 catch rate:Bayhawks said:
Calvin 60
A Johnson 69
D Thomas 67
Decker 69
L Moore 64
Colston 64
Bryant 67
Crabtree 67
M Floyd 67
R White 64
R Cobb 77
62% is more than fair.
Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.
12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.
Smushinh numbers together? That is your idea of a rational, sound argument?
The fact is, you posted his "floor" as numbers that would require him to play like a top-10 NFL WR, to have the targets, catch rate, and YPR that you expect. That's not logical to expect from any rookie, no matter when he was drafted (or not).
here-->http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr
Yes, averaging two recent season (Brady's attempt) is reasonable, rational and sound. Smushing.
Sit down with a beverage of your choice and figure out where 600 of Brady's attempts are going and get back with us. Brandon Lloyd got 130 targets last season and now it's a surprise if Thompkins is near that? Lloyd got 117 the year prior, so his ratio (see what I did there, just like Brady's attempts) was relatively the same.
Last season, the incredible Brian Hartline averaged 14.6, Lance Moore over 16 and Grandpa Boldin was over 14, so simmer down on YPC.
130 targets, 80 receptions, 13 YPC and 6 TD.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I personally projected KT for 760yds and 5TDs. Expecting much more than that is meaning he has a better season than the proven, pro bowl caliber Lloyd did last year and basically selling your soul to be on the hype train.
That has him end up as WR47 for me. Im guessing someone might pick him in my draft tonight before I would consider him, but I'll keep my eye on it. Where he was being drafted a couple weeks ago he was potentially a huge value. Now where he's going, you are pretty much taking away all his upside that he had to begin with. Im guessing there is a better chance Dobson ends up on my team than KT.
That has him end up as WR47 for me. Im guessing someone might pick him in my draft tonight before I would consider him, but I'll keep my eye on it. Where he was being drafted a couple weeks ago he was potentially a huge value. Now where he's going, you are pretty much taking away all his upside that he had to begin with. Im guessing there is a better chance Dobson ends up on my team than KT.
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
While I agree that the hype is almost guaranteed to be bigger than his production, I disagree with the comparisons to Lloyd.
Lloyd was a 1-time pro bowler and he has had one great year, and two okay years (one of which was with one of the best offenses in the NFL) in his 10 year career. He was never especially talented. Kenbrell has outperformed everyones expectations of himself AND everyones expectations of Dobson and Boyce. His catching radius is ridiculous and he gets separation on every route, hes not especially fast or big - but he is performing like an all-star, albeit in the preseason.
Most importantly of all, he gets the system; you could stick any stud you want in that receiving corp and if he doesn't get the system he will under perform.
You didn't project JUST a 62% catch rate. You projected him to get 130 targets, 80 catches (62%), with a 13.0 YPR. There aren't "tons" of WRs who did this; there are a half dozen. You' re trying to make Thompkins unto the "$6 million" WR; "WR A had 130 targets, "WR B had 80 catches," WR C had a 62% catch rate," "WR D averaged 13.0 YPR," so Thompkins must be able to do it. That isn't how it works. Some WRs have a high YPR, some have a high catch rate, some see a lot of targets. Only 6 have done Them simultaneously, what you think is Thompkins' floor. Think about that, and maybe you should put down your beverage of choice.First off, easy on the catch rate, there are TONS of WRs w/ higher than 62%here-->http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wrFair? You are comparing him to some of the most elite WRs in the NFL, and you think that is a fair comparison? Only 6 of those WRs had the targets, catch rate, and YPR you are predicting. That's not fair, nor is it reasonable. Seriously?Smushinh numbers together? That is your idea of a rational, sound argument?Tackling Dummies said:2012 catch rate:Bayhawks said:
Calvin 60
A Johnson 69
D Thomas 67
Decker 69
L Moore 64
Colston 64
Bryant 67
Crabtree 67
M Floyd 67
R White 64
R Cobb 77
62% is more than fair.
Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.
12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.
The fact is, you posted his "floor" as numbers that would require him to play like a top-10 NFL WR, to have the targets, catch rate, and YPR that you expect. That's not logical to expect from any rookie, no matter when he was drafted (or not).
Yes, averaging two recent season (Brady's attempt) is reasonable, rational and sound. Smushing.
Sit down with a beverage of your choice and figure out where 600 of Brady's attempts are going and get back with us. Brandon Lloyd got 130 targets last season and now it's a surprise if Thompkins is near that? Lloyd got 117 the year prior, so his ratio (see what I did there, just like Brady's attempts) was relatively the same.
Last season, the incredible Brian Hartline averaged 14.6, Lance Moore over 16 and Grandpa Boldin was over 14, so simmer down on YPC.
130 targets, 80 receptions, 13 YPC and 6 TD.
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The skeptics arent wrong but something that wont show up in your stats are the possibility of being an elite QBs guy. IF that chemistry clicked Manning-Harrison Manning-Wayne Brees-Colston Brady-Welker... all bets are off. Comparing to guys with mortal QBs throwing to them in sub-olympian offenses isnt really the point. Im not intrested in his floor (cuz he'll be on my bench or off my roster considering how late I get him), its his ceiling that is relevant. Does Lance Moore have a realistic shot to make the top 10 and blow some minds? No (and I love LM). KT has the possibility, just based on proximity.
Abraham
Footballguy
No it isn't.Tackling Dummies said:2012 catch rate:Bayhawks said:
Calvin 60
A Johnson 69
D Thomas 67
Decker 69
L Moore 64
Colston 64
Bryant 67
Crabtree 67
M Floyd 67
R White 64
R Cobb 77
62% is more than fair.
Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.
12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.
Abraham
Footballguy
He gets seperation on every route because there is no game plan against him. I like the guy, and so does butch jones, but wr25 is upside this year.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Just took him at #100 overall tonight in a PPR., which seems to right around his ADP as of late per MFL drafts in the past 3 days. I'll take him all day as a WR4/5 type.
Ahead of likes of Britt, Givens, Blackmon, E.Sanders, Broyles.
I've found myself ending with both Amendola and Thompkins in a few leagues. A lot has to do with I think Amendola's injury history and/or if Thompkins does infact steal some of Danny's quick hitters.
Ahead of likes of Britt, Givens, Blackmon, E.Sanders, Broyles.
I've found myself ending with both Amendola and Thompkins in a few leagues. A lot has to do with I think Amendola's injury history and/or if Thompkins does infact steal some of Danny's quick hitters.
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
107th overall in my draft tonight. Considering that is almost exactly where yahoo has him ranked now, not surprised thats where he went.
Got picked over VBrown, Blackmon, Rice who I have all ahead of him.
Got picked over VBrown, Blackmon, Rice who I have all ahead of him.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Game plan against him?
He's beating press and off coverage already. Are they holding back some super-secret ninja press coverage technique for the regular season?
You game plan against a QB, the RB1 and the WR1 for a team. Game planning to stop the 3rd or 4th most dangerous receiving option (after Gronk, Amendola and maybe Vereen) isn't going to happen. He's going to see some double coverage on the occasions where his route challenges deep, but that's route-biased coverage rather than player-biased coverage. The game planning done to counter him is going to consist of the DC telling the defensive squad not to sleep on the rookie WR because he's more polished than one would expect of a rookie. Then the DC will go back to talking about neutralizing Gronk and Amendola.
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JamesTheScot
Footballguy
That's to rich for my blood as well, though taking him over Rice wouldn't offend me too much.
kegger
Footballguy
Dude, OG..
Quit with the bets already..
(your not even out of the last hole yet, an no one is going to want to bet you)
Delete your post, and leave this thread to talk about the wideout named for it.
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As to Thompkins,
I'm in that 60-70rec 750-900yds an call it 6td category, that puts him at wr40-wr50 range.
That would be where I rank him "draft wise" and feel his Floor should be, Ceiling obviously
would be Higher, an if he becomes an Brady favourite I'd go 1000yds an 8tds, wr30 range.
That is my thinking on his floor/ceiling, for the regular season as it stands now in NE there.
(I did take him "near" my high Floor rankings in 1 league as I liked nothing left at that point)
.
Quit with the bets already..
(your not even out of the last hole yet, an no one is going to want to bet you)
Delete your post, and leave this thread to talk about the wideout named for it.
-------------
As to Thompkins,
I'm in that 60-70rec 750-900yds an call it 6td category, that puts him at wr40-wr50 range.
That would be where I rank him "draft wise" and feel his Floor should be, Ceiling obviously
would be Higher, an if he becomes an Brady favourite I'd go 1000yds an 8tds, wr30 range.
That is my thinking on his floor/ceiling, for the regular season as it stands now in NE there.
(I did take him "near" my high Floor rankings in 1 league as I liked nothing left at that point)
.
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Short Corner
Footballguy
Obvious solution yet some will continue to engage this tool and make the rest of suffer thru his idiocy.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
OK, for the target skeptics, the assignment is simple:
Assign 600 of Brady's pass attempts. For the sake of clarity, assume Gronk misses 3 games and Amendola is healthy for all 16.
Please report Thompkins targets.
TIA.
Assign 600 of Brady's pass attempts. For the sake of clarity, assume Gronk misses 3 games and Amendola is healthy for all 16.
Please report Thompkins targets.
TIA.
kegger
Footballguy
I don't think your projections are to totally "outrageous", just an little high, roughly 15% higher than mine..
An to be honest, if someone is "Really High" on this guy then to rank him where you have um is fine by me..
------
I'm a wuss, an can't rank an Unproven guy that high with others I like around that spot, and feel comfortable...
(to many other recievers ranked that high I would take before looking at Thompkins high side of my rankings)
It's not just your targets, as I previously posted. It's you arbitrarily projecting a rookie to have targets, catches, catch rate, and YPR numbers that only a handful of proven NFL WRs posted last year. Just like it's unwise to project career years for players, it's unwise to project a rookie to do what very few proven NFL players can do. To say it would be that rookie's floor is illogical.
As to your target question:
Brady-600 attempts, with Gronkowski for 13 games & Amendola for 16:
Amendola-150 targets (Welker had 180+ the last two years, but even though all reports suggest that Amendola and Brady seem to have a connection so far, I don't think it would be wise to expect Brady to lock onto Amendola to the degree he did Welker last year)
Gronkowski-100 targets (I actually think this is low; he averaged 8.3 targets/game the last 2 seasons; that would be 108 targets over 13 games. If he plays 13 games, with Hernandez gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gronk get close to 10 targets/game, but I under-projected here to show how out of whack the expectations for Thompkins are)
Sudfeld-80 targets (6/game). Hernandez actually averaged more targets/game than Gronk the last two years (9.2/game). I don't expect Sudfeld to see that many targets; probably something closer to Hernandez' rookie year (4.6/game). Let's call it 5 targets/game, since he might/should get more targets the first few weeks until Gronk gets back.
Ridley-20 targets (he had 16 last year, with the loss of Woodhead, Lloyd, Hernandez, etc, I'll give him 4 more.
Vereen-75 targets (Again, I think this is low, because Woodhead and Vereen had 74 combined targets last year, and based on reports from NE beat writers, Vereen's usage in the pre-season, and the loss of Hernandez, I expect Vereen to be more heavily involved this year. But I under-projected his targets anyway, for argument's sake)
Edelman-50 targets. (He had 32 in 9 games last year (3.6/game), and with all the receiving losses this year, I expect him to be more involved. That said, I can't count on him being healthy, so I only gave him 50 targets, which would only be 3.13/game if he played all 16).
Other WRs (Dobson, Boyce, etc)-20 targets (This could be way off; NE typically hasn't thrown a lot to their 4th, 5th, 6th WRs, but with all the new receivers this year, I can't be sure how that will play out)
That leaves 105 targets for Thompkins. Again, I think some of the target numbers for other guys are low, but for argument's sake, I purposely low-balled them.
If Brady only throws 600 passes, and Thompkins gets 105 targets, (instead of the 130 number you made up), and he catches 60% of them (instead of the 62% number you decided upon), he will have 63 catches, not 80. If you give him a more realistic YPR like 12.0 (his pre-season YPR is 10.9, BTW), then you are talking about 756 yards.
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Now, we're getting down to it.
13 YPC v 12 is small potatoes, as is the 62/60 catch ratio. This is not making a Thompkins-to-the-HOF stand, YPC and catch ratio are within reason.
If we meet around 115 targets (very slight target bump over 16 games), you are roughly looking at 70/900 (12.85 YPC) and I'll take that any day that ends with "y".
13 YPC v 12 is small potatoes, as is the 62/60 catch ratio. This is not making a Thompkins-to-the-HOF stand, YPC and catch ratio are within reason.
If we meet around 115 targets (very slight target bump over 16 games), you are roughly looking at 70/900 (12.85 YPC) and I'll take that any day that ends with "y".
Short Corner
Footballguy
I have him as my WR4-5 on my rosters. I think a starting UDFA is going to have pretty broad range as far as projections go. Guy got 12 targets the other night. The upside of being Brady's security blanket is well worth the risk. I admit I am chasing, but I believe if those numbers have ANY chance of caryying over to the reg season, then his upside is much higher than those being drafted around him.
Short Corner
Footballguy
They are not small potatoes; over the course of a season, they add up. Also, the YPR and catch ratio (as already demonstrated) aren't reasonable. You can keep saying that, it doesn't make it accurate.
Regardless, that doesn't exactly mesh with your "COME AT ME BRO!" post, though, where you said his FLOOR was 80/1000/6. The fact is that those "FLOOR" projections were very unrealistic (especially when you consider that during his two year college career, Thompkins scored a grand total of 4 TDs; calling 6 his floor seems absurd). A stat line of 70/900/4, which you'll take any day that ends with a "y" would basically make Thompkins a very weak WR3, in a 12-team league.
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Annnnd we're back.
Anybody wanna talk about Thompkins performances? He looked smooth on the field, but is it my imagination that he seemed to chirp after every catch? He also seemed to actively look for the sideline... which i can excuse in preseason but for a rookie its a bit troubling.
The Chad Johnson similarities are a bit eerie. Anybody else see what im seeing?
Anybody wanna talk about Thompkins performances? He looked smooth on the field, but is it my imagination that he seemed to chirp after every catch? He also seemed to actively look for the sideline... which i can excuse in preseason but for a rookie its a bit troubling.
The Chad Johnson similarities are a bit eerie. Anybody else see what im seeing?
Short Corner
Footballguy
As long as he produces and stays on the field, he can do whatever he wants.
How many players on a BB team see the field when theyre drawing personal fouls or looking to get out of bounds?
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
xenith
Footballguy
Just jumping in here, and not goin back into all the silly bet smack.
1st draft this year was WAY early, so KT undrafted. I just finally gulped down the koolaid and picked him up a few days ago as FA, dropping Jeffrey. Talking deep bench WR fliers, and while i do very much like Jeffrey, that deep on the bench i'm looking for home runs not singles (kept Rueben Randle and Vincent Brown over Jeffrey for the drop).
Lot of numbers thrown around in here for projections, but not a lot of who do you like better for bench fliers. So, thought's on ranking Thompkins vs some of these WR bench spots (just kinda picking out a few guys from varous slots in rankings):
Thompkins vs...
MIke Williams
TY Hilton
Chris Givens
Vencent Brown
Emmanuel Sanders
Alshon Jeffrey
Rueben Randle
Nate Washington
Others you've got your eye on?
any thoughts?
1st draft this year was WAY early, so KT undrafted. I just finally gulped down the koolaid and picked him up a few days ago as FA, dropping Jeffrey. Talking deep bench WR fliers, and while i do very much like Jeffrey, that deep on the bench i'm looking for home runs not singles (kept Rueben Randle and Vincent Brown over Jeffrey for the drop).
Lot of numbers thrown around in here for projections, but not a lot of who do you like better for bench fliers. So, thought's on ranking Thompkins vs some of these WR bench spots (just kinda picking out a few guys from varous slots in rankings):
Thompkins vs...
MIke Williams
TY Hilton
Chris Givens
Vencent Brown
Emmanuel Sanders
Alshon Jeffrey
Rueben Randle
Nate Washington
Others you've got your eye on?
any thoughts?
greeklightnin
Footballguy
So we have to send you the money first to lock in the bet? Seems prudent.OG_GF said:
I definitely wouldn't have taken him there. I think Blackmon as a WR4/5 is just about perfect because I actually think for his 12 games, he will be playing as low end WR1. I like Givens better and would probably also take Britt over him based on upside. I would probably take Sanders as well and only Broyles I wouldn't put above Thompkins.
Thompkins went way too high in a draft I had last night (5th) by a Pats homer. I took Miles Austin with my 6th to give you an idea of how ridiculous that pick was. I took Blackmon as my WR4 3 rounds later. This is a team that usually makes a few boneheaded moves, so it is a little extreme but does show the hype.
Blackmon's being criminally underrated in every draft i've been in. Anybody missing even game 1 is being badly underrated. I think pulling a game or two out of the projections is dropping people off the radar screen.
Banger
Footballguy
agree completely. I usually snag 2 to 3 good wr's, then maybe grab a flyer like Givens/Thompkins or someone in that range and then at the end Blackmon is still usually sitting there. Yes, he'll miss some games but he looked awful good and Dez like in the preseason. He has that "my ball" mentaility and plays angry. Ya, he's a knucklehead and may blow himself up but with a price of a 12th/13th round he's too good to pass up.
The only problem I forsee is if there's a hot pickup and the other guys on my roster are working out that I may be "forced" to drop him to get another high flyer in the first couple weeks.
Coincidentally, I feel the same about Gordon and he's ending up on most of my teams...when he explodes when he returns it's going to enable me to package up my more well known wr like a Steve Smith and plug Gordon into his spot.
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I have seen Blackmon mentioned a few times as well, so I will throw him in the mix. Here's my ranking of those guys with *s next to the guys who are ranked higher if you want a consistent bye week fill in versus a higher risk/higher reward.
Blackmon (if you can stomach the suspension, his schedule and talent should make him a solid starter for the last 12)
Hilton
Givens
Sanders*
Thompkins
Brown (not sold on him at all)
Williams
Washington*
Jeffrey
Randle
I don't think you will get Blackmon in the 12/13 in start 3WR PPR leagues. He has gone 8th in both leagues I am in like that (I got him once, had an 8th round keeper in the other). I do agree that he is is very underrated.
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PatsFanCT
Footballguy
I "bet" you wont.I'm going to pistol whip the next guy that says the word 'bet' in this thread.
Take it to pm or just go away.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tZOl4nOlSgI'm going to pistol whip the next guy that says the word 'bet' in this thread.
Take it to pm or just go away.
Banger
Footballguy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFZG8KQJni8&feature=player_detailpage#t=10http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tZOl4nOlSgI'm going to pistol whip the next guy that says the word 'bet' in this thread.
Take it to pm or just go away.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I noticed this too. On his fade routes he tends to go to the sideline regardless of the coverage or what shoulder the pass is coming to. There was one ball (week 3) I thought he could have turned into an easy TD. The ball was thrown to his inside shoulder, so it's not like Brady was leading him outside. For whatever reason instead of continuing his route up the field through the catch, he angled outside and went out of bounds. I couldn't figure this out either.
(HULK)
(Smash)
What?!?!? to the bolded. Lloyd was an inconsistant as they come imo.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
OG_GF said:
Riiiiiiight.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I love how you feel the need to tell him he's on ignore...you know...rather than just ignoring him.
I bet you walk away from fights and then yell over your shoulder about how you're the being the bigger man by walking away.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Early in his career, sure, but not the last few years when he finished WR1, WR25, and WR34. People in here are projecting him to be better than Lloyd last year. I'll believe it when I see it.
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