I don't want to dog the guy because he has done well and should definitely be taken seriously as a contender for this year's Colston/Foster/Morris "out of nowhere" pick.
Putting that aside, he's a 25 year old rookie. Being older probably gives him an immediate edge because he's further along in his physical and mental maturity than the other rookies. That could help explain his early success. It also means that you're looking at a shorter window of utility if he pans out. That won't affect his trade value any time soon. If he has a breakout season, people will go bonkers for him regardless. However, it could factor into your decision as a tiebreaker if you're trying to weigh his value against another WR prospect like Randle, who's actually three years younger despite being in the league for one year more.
some people adjust their opinions based off new information and others just continue to try to support their previous opinions despite evidence to the contrary. Which side do you fall on? You still trying to hype.Boyce who is far down the depth chart?
People often say stuff like this. There's definitely a downside to being too rigid, but also to being too reactive. In this case, I don't think anything we've seen from the Pats rookie WRs in the last 2-3 weeks has been so decisive that we can make concrete judgments about their careers. All we can really say is that Thompkins has done extremely well for a UDFA and looks like a good bet to make the roster and perhaps even be a week one starter. That's significant and definitely moves him from "total afterthought" to "guy with a chance" territory.
Does any of that mean he's going to excel come game day or that he's going to stave off the other two rookie WRs long term? No. For all the hype, he hasn't done much of anything in the preseason games. He was a UDFA and a mediocre college player. He's arguably the least gifted athletically of the big three rookie WRs there. So while he's probably been fastest out of the blocks, that doesn't guarantee that he's going to be standing on the medal stand in a few years. Where you start isn't always where you finish.
To answer your question, I would still take Boyce over him without hesitation. You can call that stubbornness or denial if you'd like. I call it confidence in my initial judgment. Boyce is the best athlete that New England has at WR and most of the training camp buzz about him has been encouraging. Maybe he's not as polished or refined as Thompkins yet, but I think he has the highest ceiling of these guys. I look for him to surpass the other two at some point. Maybe it happens this season. Maybe not.
I've mentioned this example elsewhere, but a few years ago I took Andre Roberts in pretty much all of my rookie drafts. That year in training camp he played horribly and was clearly outshined by rookie UDFA Stephen Williams. People said he was lucky just to make the 53 man roster. Fast forward a few years later and Roberts is a key player for the Cardinals while Williams is a journeyman trying to latch on with the Seahawks. I'm glad that I ignored the "evidence" in that case and stood by my initial evaluation. Careers are a marathon, not a sprint. Some guys explode out of the blocks. Some guys take a while to get moving.
It's good to pay attention to the preseason and keep an eye out for guys like Alfred Morris and Daryl Richardson who are sneaking up the depth chart. Despite what I've said in this post, Thompkins is absolutely a guy who would've justified a waiver pickup on the basis of the buzz. However, if you always use the first 2-3 weeks of a rookie's career as a perfect predictor for the next 6-7 years, you're gonna have a bad time.