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Kerwynn Williams - Official Conestoga Wagon? (1 Viewer)

Everytime a starting RB goes down regardless of the team everyone screams rbbc.  Happy to gamble on Williams getting the majority of the work.
Yeah.  Really can't ask for a more ideal situation.  He is not great, but even if he can just be good that is enough for him to beat out the competition and be the featured back.  Nobody gets 100 percent of the work.  I see him getting 15 carries a week and 2-3 catches on what still can be a better than average offense.  

 
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Trying to grab him in a leagues. Everyone is screaming rbbc but I don't see it with Arians.
Not sure why you don't see it.  Until he got DJ, Arians has used RBBC pretty much all the time he was OC or HC.  2010 with Mendenhall (in Pitt) & 2007 with Fast Willie Parker (Pitt) were the only exceptions.  So, 3/11 years Arians has been a 1-RB guy.  The rest of the time, he mixes & matches.

 
I own no shares ... I just think the situation is funny.  Everyone rushed to Kerwynn and Chris Johnson.  I got Ellington for free everywhere.   :shrug:

I saw one guy in a PPR drop 85% on Kerwynn (he's the village idiot, but still).

 
I'm a DJ owner in every one of my dynasty leagues & I'm going to pass on Williams. They've got 5 RBs rostered now & Arians will likely use a mix of at least 3 of them.

Poor OL play is just icing on the cake. DJ is productive due to his enormous talent, but that's not the case with their other RBs. It's looking like the RBBC from hell, LOL.

 
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Okay; I'm a DJ owner who drafted before the cuts were made; have C Johnson as the backup.  We can't make moves until after week 1, so I couldn't grab Williams & I was beat out on waiver priority by another owner.  He just sent me a trade offer: K Williams for Gronk.  Obviously, it's a ridiculous offer, and an auto-reject.  Is Williams even worth trying to counter-offer, or do I just ignore the trade because it is such an obvious example of attempted trade rape?

ETA-I have a strong lineup (although they pooped the bed in week 1): Brees, Bell, DJ :cry: , M Thomas, Cooks, Gronk.  Since I went so stud-heavy (& b/c Luck is out) though, my back-up RBs suck.  Gore is the best I have, and I have a bunch of #2 guys who COULD pan out if a starter goes down.  The WW is picked clean; the best RB available is D Washington from Det.

 
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I would not pay much for Williams.  I actually did pick him up in a couple of leagues but this seems like a total crap shoot.  It could be Williams but I could just as easily see them turn to Ellington or Chris Johnson who was the starter before DJ took over a couple years ago or could be a combination.  Any of the mentioned seem attractive for a cheap price in leagues with large rosters.

 
Considering they are playing the Colts this weekend, a great opportunity for Kerwynn to put up big numbers and earn more carries going forward. 
If there is an area of hope for the Colts it is their interior line and run defense.

 
I uh.. I think Williams is a decent start this week. Despite all the injuries, ARI's implied point total is 25.5 (7th most) and their the -7 line is the 4th largest this week. It seems slightly insane to me, but ARI's implied point total is even slightly higher than NO's and PIT's 25.25. Even if the IND match-up isn't as juicy as it has been in recent years, game script should be conducive to RB volume and ARI should score a bunch.

Whenever Williams been given a relevant workload he's always turned in an at least decent performance on the ground:

19/100/0

15/75/0

16/67/0

12/60/1

He's no DJ (no one is) but when I watch his touches he doesn't look terrible either. He's fast (definite threat to take it to the house), has some decent lateral agility and despite his size he doesn't shy away from contact. I also like that BA has no problem using him at the GL. In the long-term I think this will be a situation to avoid but not this week. Something like 15/60/1 with a 1-2 grabs seems very possible to me. 

 
Okay; I'm a DJ owner who drafted before the cuts were made; have C Johnson as the backup.  We can't make moves until after week 1, so I couldn't grab Williams & I was beat out on waiver priority by another owner.  He just sent me a trade offer: K Williams for Gronk.  Obviously, it's a ridiculous offer, and an auto-reject.  Is Williams even worth trying to counter-offer, or do I just ignore the trade because it is such an obvious example of attempted trade rape?

ETA-I have a strong lineup (although they pooped the bed in week 1): Brees, Bell, DJ :cry: , M Thomas, Cooks, Gronk.  Since I went so stud-heavy (& b/c Luck is out) though, my back-up RBs suck.  Gore is the best I have, and I have a bunch of #2 guys who COULD pan out if a starter goes down.  The WW is picked clean; the best RB available is D Washington from Det.
I'd pass. You'll be fine and while Williams could show decent production he isn't worth trading for - upside just isn't there with Ellington and CJ hanging around.

 
Actually, he is.  He has used RBBC in all but 3 years he has been OC or HC.  07 with Willie Parker in Pitt, '10 with Mendenhall in Pitt, and last year with David Johnson
I think you're stretching the definition of RBBC just a bit. Arians likes to use 2 RBs, but the lead back almost always gets 15-20 carries per game:

Cleveland, 2001: James Jackson on pace for 283 carries but got injured
Cleveland, 2002: William Green (243 carries) and Jamel White (106 carries)
Cleveland, 2003: William Green on pace for 324 carries before injury (RBBC after that)
Pittsburgh, 2008: Willie Parker on pace for 305 carries before injury
Pittsburgh, 2009: Rashard Mendenhall (242 carries) and Willie Parker (98 carries)
Pittsburgh, 2011: Mendenhall (228 carries) and Isaac Redman (110 carries)
Indianapolis, 2012: Vick Ballard (211 carries) and Donald Brown (108 carries)
Arizona, 2013: Mendenhall (217 carries) and Ellington (118 carries)
Arizona, 2014: Ellington (201 carries in 12 games), Stepfan Taylor (63 carries), Kerwynn Williams (53 carries in 5 games)
Arizona, 2015: Chris Johnson on pace for 285 carries before injury (David Johnson averaged 18 rushes per game afterwards)

So, 11 out of 13 seasons (including the 3 seasons you mentioned), Arians had a lead back that got at least 15-16 carries per game.

If Williams gets 16 carries per game and averages 4.0 YPC, that's the equivalent of 1024 yards. Which makes him a fantasy starter in most leagues.

Granted, that's not as exciting as winning the fantasy lotto with an unknown 3rd-string RB who rushes for 1500 yards and 20 TDs, but those guys don't come along every week.

 
I think you're stretching the definition of RBBC just a bit. Arians likes to use 2 RBs, but the lead back almost always gets 15-20 carries per game:

Cleveland, 2001: James Jackson on pace for 283 carries but got injured
Cleveland, 2002: William Green (243 carries) and Jamel White (106 carries)
Cleveland, 2003: William Green on pace for 324 carries before injury (RBBC after that)
Pittsburgh, 2008: Willie Parker on pace for 305 carries before injury
Pittsburgh, 2009: Rashard Mendenhall (242 carries) and Willie Parker (98 carries)
Pittsburgh, 2011: Mendenhall (228 carries) and Isaac Redman (110 carries)
Indianapolis, 2012: Vick Ballard (211 carries) and Donald Brown (108 carries)
Arizona, 2013: Mendenhall (217 carries) and Ellington (118 carries)
Arizona, 2014: Ellington (201 carries in 12 games), Stepfan Taylor (63 carries), Kerwynn Williams (53 carries in 5 games)
Arizona, 2015: Chris Johnson on pace for 285 carries before injury (David Johnson averaged 18 rushes per game afterwards)

So, 11 out of 13 seasons (including the 3 seasons you mentioned), Arians had a lead back that got at least 15-16 carries per game.

If Williams gets 16 carries per game and averages 4.0 YPC, that's the equivalent of 1024 yards. Which makes him a fantasy starter in most leagues.

Granted, that's not as exciting as winning the fantasy lotto with an unknown 3rd-string RB who rushes for 1500 yards and 20 TDs, but those guys don't come along every week.
Im not stretching anything; perhaps we have a different definition of RBBC?  IMO, if the RB workload is split 60/40 (or in that area), that's a RBBC.  And, IMO that, at best, is what Ari is heading for (although, Is expect more like 50/35/15, or in that area).

 
Bayhawks said:
Im not stretching anything; perhaps we have a different definition of RBBC?  IMO, if the RB workload is split 60/40 (or in that area), that's a RBBC.  And, IMO that, at best, is what Ari is heading for (although, Is expect more like 50/35/15, or in that area).
Where are you getting this split from? Did the mouse in your pocket tell you this?

 
Where are you getting this split from? Did the mouse in your pocket tell you this?
Mouse in my pocket?  Holy crap, that was the funniest thing I've ever heard!  Did you come up with that all by yourself?

I would think since I said "I expect," that it was clear that I was stating my belief.  Also, since I didn't cite Arians, a beat writer, the Ari OC, etc that should have reinforced the idea that I was stating my opinion.  And when you consider the fact that Ellington is a better receiver, and has already been reported to be the 3rd down back, AND the Cardinals look to be behind a good deal this year, I don't think predicting him for 35% of the touches is that unreasonable.

 
Bayhawks said:
Im not stretching anything; perhaps we have a different definition of RBBC?  IMO, if the RB workload is split 60/40 (or in that area), that's a RBBC.  And, IMO that, at best, is what Ari is heading for (although, Is expect more like 50/35/15, or in that area).
Oh.

Here is the approximate breakdown of rushing carries for the teams coached by Arians:

Cleveland, 2001: James Jackson got 68% of carries before getting hurt
Cleveland, 2002: William Green: 63% (Jamel White: 28%)
Cleveland, 2003: William Green got 83% of carries before getting hurt
Pittsburgh, 2008: Willie Parker got 73% of carries before getting hurt
Pittsburgh, 2009: Rashard Mendenhall: 63% (Willie Parker: 29%)
Pittsburgh, 2011: Mendenhall: 61% (Isaac Redman: 28%)
Indianapolis, 2012: Vick Ballard: 55% (Donald Brown: 44%)
Arizona, 2013: Mendenhall: 59% (Ellington: 29%)
Arizona, 2014: Ellington got 74% of carries before getting hurt
Arizona, 2015: Chris Johnson got 69% of carries before getting hurt

If we go strictly by your 60/40 definition of RBBC, then it only happened twice in 13 years. If we expand the definition to 67%, then it's happened 5 times in 13 years.

I mean, James Jackson and William Green were far from studs, and they each had seasons where they got at least 68% of the carries for a very mediocre Cleveland team. If Kerwyn Williams gets 68% of carries for Arizona, that would be around 16-17 carries per game. Again, that's fantasy starter material in most leagues.

 
I'd like Kerwynn IF you could just put him in DJ's place with no changes.

Thing is, not having DJ is a big change in itself. I think the Cardinals will miss that big-play ability and play from behind more (maybe not today. Talking about outlook going forward). 

Playing from behind favors Ellington imo. He was the guy I made room for in my PPR league.

Not having DJ changes the Cards' competitive abilities, which changes the gameplans, which hurts Kerwynn and helps Ellington. That's my impression.   

 
Why does everyone act like Williams cannot catch? Blows my mind.
Maybe because he has 6 catches in 5 years?  Maybe because on those 6 catches, he has averaged less than 6 yards?  Maybe because he has a 54% catch rate?  Maybe because his HC has said "Williams has been a runner for us," while describing Ellington as a "dynamic" receiver?  Maybe because all Ari bear writers report that Ellington will handle the RB passing work?  

 
Considering him over Jordan Howard (PPR) with the shoulder, but that feels like getting too cute. Probably won't have the balls to go through with it 

 
Wow,  it's almost like Arians used a RBBC instead of giving Williams the bulk of the workload.  Who could have seen that coming?

 
Going back to the well? With Mixon out I’m down to this guy, Tion Green or Derrick Henry as my second RB

ah screw it im going Henry 

 
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ADP done for the year.

37 touches for 185 yards the last two weeks (20-97 & 16-73, added a rare catch WK 14.)

Last 5 weeks, WAS has allowed 142 ATT for 672 yards - 31st in the NFL for both. Also, 5 TDs rushing, and 16-139-1.

Nice option for somebody in standard,

 
ADP done for the year.

37 touches for 185 yards the last two weeks (20-97 & 16-73, added a rare catch WK 14.)

Last 5 weeks, WAS has allowed 142 ATT for 672 yards - 31st in the NFL for both. Also, 5 TDs rushing, and 16-139-1.

Nice option for somebody in standard,
Stashed him on my two teams that are still alive. Probably won't start him but I don't want my opponents having a starting rb option.

 
I'm tossing him in over Alfred Morris. He's going to continue to get a bunch of carries, and I just have on of those weird feelings that he's going to find paydirt this week.

22 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD

2 catches, 30 yards

:fingerscrossed:

 

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