Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Kevin Kolb Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Late on Tuesday evening and nobody has taken a shot at projecting the Eagles new starting QB, Kevin Kolb. Kolb, a 2007 second round pick has thrown 130 NFL passes in three years, most of them coming in two successful games a season ago against the Saints and Chiefs. He completed 60.8% of 51 passes against the Saints for 7.67 ypa and 70.6% of 34 attempts for 9.62 against the Chiefs. In short, he had two outstanding games against not so good defenses, but now will lead the Eagles against the tough NFC East

In addition to the tough six in-diision contests, the Eagles host five teams thinking about the playoffs, the Packers, Colts, Texans, and Vikings. Their road schedule is potentially much easier, at Detroit, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Chicago. Even those games include some tough defenses and they do travel across the country once.

There seems to be quite a few drinking the kool-aid for Kolb as he is currently being drafted as QB 12 and 80 overall, going before Flacco and Palmer. He has quite a few receiving options, but that high seems as risky to me as the Eagles trading McNabb within the division.

I also think that Michael Vick will see the field more in 2010 than a year ago sometimes putting a crimp on Kolb's production.

Kevin Kolb 16 gms 324 out of 540 60% 3780 yds 7.0 ypa 22 TDs 18 ints 35 rushes 70 yd 2.0 ypc & 1 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

One of the underappreciated traits of Donavan McNabb IMO, and one that allowed Andy Reid to have the mindset to throw the ball as much as he did, was because McNabb simply never threw alot of interceptions. In the last 6 seasons which comprised of 2840 pass attempts, McNabb's INT% was 1.8%. That's VERY low. It would have ranked 4th best in the NFL last year. And this was a standard by which the Eagles operated for the last 6 seasons. Granted, McNabb missed his share of games over that period, but his status as the engine of the Eagles always remained.

When a coach has this much confidence in his QB and his offense to not make negative momentum changing plays in the passing game, it gives him more confidence to continue to put the ball in the air. For the last 10 years, Reid has operated primarily with a QB who not only was extremely talented, but was judicious with the ball as well.

We have very little information on Kolb thus far. Last year he had 96 attempts and while he put up some impressive numbers, he did so:

1) In a rout against the Saints (in the wrong direction)

2) Against the Chiefs

...and even as impressive as his numbers were, his INT% was still 3.1%. So to project that out over the course of a season of say 550 pass attempts - Reid has been used to McNabb throwing 10 INT's. That's a very low number. While I mentioned 3.1% as what Kolb produced in his short stint, that's not a bad figure at all (league average in 2009 was 3.08%). So assuming Kolb can hit the league average, over 550 pass attempts, that comes out to 17 INT's (and in actuality, the Eagles have averaged 575 pass attempts/year over the past 6 seasons).

To be honest, I don't know what to make of Kolb. Not alot of folks were high on him as McNabb's successor this time last year. Now, he's getting drafted on average 2.5 rounds ahead of McNabb. To me, that means alot of people are assuming a plug & play mentality as it relates to the Eagles passing game, without taking a closer look as to why it was so effective in the first place. With that said, Kolb has probably the best weapons catching passes that the Eagles have ever had under Reid. However, to assume a seamless transition IMO is naive and Kolb would have to put up 4000 yards and 25 TD's at this point to justify his draft slot. That's a lot to place on any first year starter.

While many have pointed to the fact that Reid wouldn't have done this if he didn't have faith in Kolb...I don't disagree. But Reid is probably amongst the Top 3-5 coaches in the NFL in terms of job security. I think he realized that McNabb had taken this franchise as far as he was going to take it...and he decided to cut the cord on that relationship perhaps at the cost of a better chance at near term success.

I think they'll be some growing pains, Kolb will show that this was the right move for the Eagles...but that there is work to do for him to reach the level and standard Reid expects out of his QB1.

Prediction: 320 Completions, 518 Attamepts, 61.8% Completion Rate, 3533 Passing Yards, 22 TD's 18 INT's.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

The most intriguing thing about Kolb's 2010 season will be the playcalling of Andy Reid. He's always loved throwing the ball, at percentages that are disporportionate when compared to the rest of the league. Will he keep this up with Kolb at the helm? Kolb proved he was capable of slinging it last year, and I think he'll do the same this year. The Eagles have weapons on offense in Desean Jackson, Maclin, Celek and McCoy. This team is not built to grind it out on the ground, so Kolb will get the chance to air it out, and I see a Flacco-like impact for him:

3800 yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs

 

[5Rings]

I think Kolb will prove to be a more accurate and better pure passer than McNabb. He won't be able to extend plays or any of the other non-boxscore items that made McNabb special, but for fantasy purposes, I think Kolb is a goldmine.

340-525, 3900, 24 td, 14 int.

...and I think he beats those #s easy...he's a steal as QB10 in redraft leagues.

 

[Phlash]

This team has a weak RB core and is clearly built to throw the ball a LOT. Jeremy Maclin, Desean Jackson, Brent Celek, and Lesean McCoy are all very, very good receivers. Let's not kid ourselves and think for a second that this team is going to pound it out with McCoy and Mike Bell anytime soon. The offensive line for the team pass protects well, and Andy Reid likes to throw the ball.

360 completions

550 attempts

63.6% completion percentage

4125 passing yards

7.5 ypa

29 TDs

17 INTs

 

[OnTheReg]

I'm really liking Kolb. I see similarities to the situation Aaron Rodgers had in Green Bay. Fourth year quarterback, lots of time to learn the system, looked good the few times he actually played, etc, etc.

Now do I expect him to be as good as Rodgers? No, but I think some people might be overlooking Kolb and treating him as if he were a rookie, when in fact he's had a few years of the system under his belt.

I'm buying big time on him this year. Any other takers?

 

[scratcher]

I'm really liking Kolb. I see similarities to the situation Aaron Rodgers had in Green Bay. Fourth year quarterback, lots of time to learn the system, looked good the few times he actually played, etc, etc.Now do I expect him to be as good as Rodgers? No, but I think some people might be overlooking Kolb and treating him as if he were a rookie, when in fact he's had a few years of the system under his belt.I'm buying big time on him this year. Any other takers?

Even if he were a pedestrian QB, look at his weapons... Jackson, Maclin, Celek, McCoy out of the backfield. That alone will make him a value at his ADP.

 

[Zdravko]

I am very comfortable drafting Kolb in the QB10 range. The Eagles threw 578 times on average in the last three seasons with 60-61% completion rate. I see no reason to think they will throw any less this season and most people will agree that Kolb's completion percentage should be higher than McNabb's.

So 578 throws times, say, 62% equals 358 completions. Even if Kolb gets a mediocre 11 yards per completion (and this is hard to imagine with all these weapons), that's still 3942 yards. You can debate how many TDs and INTs he will throw, but even guys with questionable skills or in run-first offenses (Orton, Flacco, Palmer) had 20+ TDs last year. So I'd say 23-25 TDs is a good conservative estimate. In my book, 4000 yards and 23-25 TDs is starter QB stats. And this is with a pretty conservative completion percentage estimate, as well, so there's tons and tons of potential upside.

Whether Kolb ends up as the QB8 or QB11 depends on how well others fare, but I wouldn't lose too much sleep if he was my top QB. The thing that WOULD make me lose sleep is his schedule in Weeks 14-16.

 

[dhockster]

I think Kolb will prove to be a more accurate and better pure passer than McNabb. He won't be able to extend plays or any of the other non-boxscore items that made McNabb special, but for fantasy purposes, I think Kolb is a goldmine.340-525, 3900, 24 td, 14 int. ...and I think he beats those #s easy...he's a steal as QB10 in redraft leagues.

One of the things people aren't talking about Kolb is that he actually runs and moves pretty good. While he most definitely will not be able to move as well as Donovan in his prime, he may be closer to 2009 Donovan than most people give him credit for. This should help him as he learns what defenses are trying to do against him.

 

[OnTheReg]

Deadspin posted some clips of an interview Kolb did with a radio station. I'm loving his attitude:

On his worthiness of being a starter:

"Just three years have proven it. Every day it's a 24-hour job and you get the prove that you have all the qualities to do it and [Coach Andy Reid] thinks I do and I'm going to prove him right."

On taking his game to the next level:

"I think the one thing that I've focused on is [taking] every day like a game-like situation. You're not practicing for reps any more. You're not practicing to get completions. You're practicing for gametime reps where you can get victories. If that's throwing the ball away when you've got to throw it away, that's what you've got to do."

On how comfortable he'll be in chewing his teammates out when necessary:

"There's a fine line. You want your guys to respect you as a leader and sometimes being a leader is getting on to them. And roles reverse. When I'm not playing well, they need to jump on me, too. There's a way to handle every situation. And I think that's what's best about this team, we're going to handle the situation the right way every single time."

On taking control in the huddle after being a backup:

"First of all, when I first came in here, I had that mindset going all the way through. I knew I was a backup, but I never wanted to let go of that mentality that one day I'm going to be running the show. One day, this is going to be me in there as a starter. So it wasn't hard for me. It really feels more comfortable now than what it did, even with all the extra stuff that comes with it."

On getting ready for the attitude brought by sports fans in Philadelphia:

"It's already happened a little bit. I've been here for three years and I've played bad a couple times and played good and seen both sides. I see, look, these fans just want the same thing we want. They want you to win, they want great things. I don't blame them for what they're doing. I really don't. If I'm playing bad, boo me! I'm playing bad."

On his relationship with Mike Vick:

"First of all, we have a lot in common. When you're taking snaps together every day and you're talking through situations and even riding back and forth to every single practice, you're going to become somewhat friendly with the person. But we have a lot of stuff more than that in common. Mike's done some things that he's not proud of, but we talk about them and he tells me his situation and tells me what goes on. That's why I always have his back. … We all make mistakes, it's trying not to make them the next time and I'm right there in his corner."

 

[Routilla]

I'm surprised there has not been more discussion on this guy. What's the latest out of Philly camp?

 

[JetMaxx]

Reports say too many picks but the OL is banged up and he's running for his life too often. That said, he's talented, has great character, and is surrounded by a bounty of weapons. There may be a learning curve but I'd be shocked if he disappointed.

 

[greggorymac]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

 

[bluesclues]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

Philly's offense is all about the passing game and is Kolb's team.Vick has horrible accuracy.Kolb will throw his share of INT's, but this offense NEEDS to throw the ball.I also think Mike Vick is horrible all around.THey won't score in the redzone with Vick - they need Kolb to throw it in there.

 

[Getinthemix]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

 

[vandyt]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

6 team league?

 

[aesclepius]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

6 team league?

In 4 team leagues he's available in the 31st.

 

[Amused to Death]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

Andy Reid scouted Kolb for years. Took him with the Eagles first pick in the 2007 draft. Groomed him for 3 seasons before trading away what many thought was the 'franchise' in McNabb. All to eventually make him the starter. Kolb will be the starter for the entire season barring injury with Vick getting a series here and there and some trick plays. I would be very surprised if Vick gets more then a couple TDs from inside the RZ. Kolb's education to be the next franchise QB would suffer if he were regularly pulled at the goal line.Vick is the backup QB and will look for a starting gig next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some preseason action just to get some game film on him.

 

[Aardvarks]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

Andy Reid scouted Kolb for years. Took him with the Eagles first pick in the 2007 draft. Groomed him for 3 seasons before trading away what many thought was the 'franchise' in McNabb. All to eventually make him the starter. Kolb will be the starter for the entire season barring injury with Vick getting a series here and there and some trick plays. I would be very surprised if Vick gets more then a couple TDs from inside the RZ. Kolb's education to be the next franchise QB would suffer if he were regularly pulled at the goal line.Vick is the backup QB and will look for a starting gig next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some preseason action just to get some game film on him.

Perfectly stated. And I'm a huge Vick fan...

 

[Ray_T]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

Andy Reid scouted Kolb for years. Took him with the Eagles first pick in the 2007 draft. Groomed him for 3 seasons before trading away what many thought was the 'franchise' in McNabb. All to eventually make him the starter. Kolb will be the starter for the entire season barring injury with Vick getting a series here and there and some trick plays. I would be very surprised if Vick gets more then a couple TDs from inside the RZ. Kolb's education to be the next franchise QB would suffer if he were regularly pulled at the goal line.Vick is the backup QB and will look for a starting gig next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some preseason action just to get some game film on him.

I agree.Vick is there for two reasons.1) he is an insurance policy. If Kolb somehow doesnt pan out, or gets hurt... he is their man.2) the expectation is that he will be traded away for another asset (presumabley a draft pick) around the trade deadline or early in the offseason (assuming the Kolb experiment works), or that he will sign on with another team looking for a QB when his contract expires.There is also another possibility that a team gets an injury and offers Philly more than market value for him early in the season, but I cant see that being a likely scenario.

 

[Amused to Death]

I know we've only seen Kolb in 1qtr of action, but how do you think Vick will be utilized with Kolb this season? It looks like Vick is beginning to get comfortable again and looked pretty impressive in the game.

I'm thinking about drafting Kolb in the later rounds but am concerned about the utilization of Vick in their goal line package. How many TDs do you think Vick will steal from Kolb via substitution in the redzone? More than 3?

Andy Reid scouted Kolb for years. Took him with the Eagles first pick in the 2007 draft. Groomed him for 3 seasons before trading away what many thought was the 'franchise' in McNabb. All to eventually make him the starter. Kolb will be the starter for the entire season barring injury with Vick getting a series here and there and some trick plays. I would be very surprised if Vick gets more then a couple TDs from inside the RZ. Kolb's education to be the next franchise QB would suffer if he were regularly pulled at the goal line.Vick is the backup QB and will look for a starting gig next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some preseason action just to get some game film on him.

I agree.Vick is there for two reasons.

1) he is an insurance policy. If Kolb somehow doesnt pan out, or gets hurt... he is their man.

2) the expectation is that he will be traded away for another asset (presumabley a draft pick) around the trade deadline or early in the offseason (assuming the Kolb experiment works), or that he will sign on with another team looking for a QB when his contract expires.

There is also another possibility that a team gets an injury and offers Philly more than market value for him early in the season, but I cant see that being a likely scenario.

I disagree with the bolded statement. If Kolb doesn't pan out - and I believe he will get AT LEAST this season and next to prove he can succeed - then the Eagles would have to draft a replacement. Maybe Vick serves as a fill-in, but Vick's purpose on this team is a backup/wildcat QB. Not the long term answer to the QB position in Philly. No matter how good he looks in preseason. He does not fit Andy Reid's philosophy.

 

[G-King]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/trainingcamp...&id=5476458

Cool story on Kevin today.