Kevin Smith (1 Viewer)

[Kenny Powers]

Smith is definitely an add. The question is where do you draw the line.My thought is that Jackie battle is pretty close to that line.His measurables are good, but he was somewhat injury prone when he did play and then he had his foot injury and was never the same. I acknowledge, enough time has passed that the foot may not bother him again, but he was still prone to injury before the foot became an issue. In fact he has never played more than 13 games in a season.At this point it's too early to determine the potential upside of this guy, but I would not start him ahead of a top 12 RB yet.

Big differentce between top 12 RB and Battle at this point, IMO. Battle is like RB25-28 at best, Id say Smith is like RB14-16 right now with much more upside.And Smith just doesnt need to stay healthy for a whole season this time, just 6 more games

 

[killrobotkill]

How is his pass protection? Any danger of Smith losing snaps on 3rd down, a la Blount?

 

[ShaHBucks]

How is his pass protection? Any danger of Smith losing snaps on 3rd down, a la Blount?

I watched the game on rewind, though it was against Carolina, his pass protection was as good as it gets. And a few plays he took delayed routs when he wasn't needed. He has featured back written all over him if he keeps playing w a chip. I was never a fan before but he played every snap like it was his last got to give props

 

[GManiac]

What's important here is how they plan on using him going forward, not whether or not he had a good game against a bad defense. I don't think anyone should expect 3 touchdowns a game again from here on out, but, if the plan will now include him getting him the ball on the ground 12 - 15 times a game and getting it to him through the air another 3 - 5 times a game, then at the very least he should be a decent rb2 in PPR leagues. He's obviously fast, talented, young & healthy, and has every reason to play his heart out to earn a nice paycheck for the future.

I would expect the type of numbers Best was putting up before his injury. I think Best is slightly more skilled in certain aspects, but Smith might be more suited to get yards with poor blocking up the middle. It will be a tough call in Detroit when/if Best is healthy. Because I really think Kevin Smith is there to stay for the near future. I wouldn't be surprised if they moved Best in the offseason. Only concern I would have is that Smith too has a poor record of health. But as long as he is healthy I am expecting Mid RB 1 numbers.

This backfield is in flux right now, which makes it very interesting in dynasty leagues. This is a young Lions offense and the lead RB will be a solid fantasy contributor. You have to wonder if Jahvid Best is going to be magically healed this weekend with Kevin Smith emerging.The reps could play out in many different ways, but my money is on Kevin Smith to become the lead back and between the tackles runner for the rest of this year and maybe even 2012. I think Jahvid Best will get a Sproles role in a pass first offense, but his ceiling will be reduced compared to 2010 and the beginning of 2011. I would not roster any other Detroit RBs.

I agree with the non rostering of MoMo or Keiland Williams this year. But next year and in Dynasty leagues this year, if you have Best and/or Smith I would certainly think LeShoure is worth rostering. Because of the uncertainty and the upside LeShoure brings. He is a talented RB with a decent ceiling.

 

[jon_mx]

Smith is definitely an add. The question is where do you draw the line.My thought is that Jackie battle is pretty close to that line.Battle is the starter in KC. in leagues where you start 2 RB's battle is a low end RB2, meaning he can start, but is better suited to being a backup.for now, I'd place a similar value on Kevin Smith. I actually think his value will go up as time goes by, but there is a risk premium attached to a player of this nature. I owned him in two fantasy leagues when he was active and here His measurables are good, but he was somewhat injury prone when he did play and then he had his foot injury and was never the same. I acknowledge, enough time has passed that the foot may not bother him again, but he was still prone to injury before the foot became an issue. In fact he has never played more than 13 games in a season.This is why I rate him as a RB2/3. the potential is very high with a pass catching RB with ability like him in this offense, but like DMC in Oakland, the injury bug is a concern.At this point it's too early to determine the potential upside of this guy, but I would not start him ahead of a top 12 RB yet.

I'd say Smith is quite a bit more valuable than Battle at this juncture, albeit with the caveat that Best does not return any time soon.With Battle, you have a guy that has good straight line speed, but is not involved at all in the passing game and part of a poor offense that often plays from behind. Plus, a volatile coach that loves to mix things up in terms of personnel.While we don't know what Smith's role will be, one can feel comfortable that he will have a meaningful piece of the running game pie. He is very versatile, catches the ball extremely well (can play in come-from-behind situations) and is part of a much more explosive offense.Outside of Best returning, I don't think it's that close.

Smith is an upgrade over Best.

 

[GManiac]

Smith is definitely an add. The question is where do you draw the line.My thought is that Jackie battle is pretty close to that line.Battle is the starter in KC. in leagues where you start 2 RB's battle is a low end RB2, meaning he can start, but is better suited to being a backup.for now, I'd place a similar value on Kevin Smith. I actually think his value will go up as time goes by, but there is a risk premium attached to a player of this nature. I owned him in two fantasy leagues when he was active and here His measurables are good, but he was somewhat injury prone when he did play and then he had his foot injury and was never the same. I acknowledge, enough time has passed that the foot may not bother him again, but he was still prone to injury before the foot became an issue. In fact he has never played more than 13 games in a season.This is why I rate him as a RB2/3. the potential is very high with a pass catching RB with ability like him in this offense, but like DMC in Oakland, the injury bug is a concern.At this point it's too early to determine the potential upside of this guy, but I would not start him ahead of a top 12 RB yet.

I'd say Smith is quite a bit more valuable than Battle at this juncture, albeit with the caveat that Best does not return any time soon.With Battle, you have a guy that has good straight line speed, but is not involved at all in the passing game and part of a poor offense that often plays from behind. Plus, a volatile coach that loves to mix things up in terms of personnel.While we don't know what Smith's role will be, one can feel comfortable that he will have a meaningful piece of the running game pie. He is very versatile, catches the ball extremely well (can play in come-from-behind situations) and is part of a much more explosive offense.Outside of Best returning, I don't think it's that close.

Smith is an upgrade over Best.

I still think Best can do more with good blocking. But Smith can do more with poor blocking. Best's talent can't be denied IMO. Neither can Smiths though. But it's a tough call I think in determining who is better.

 

[emge]

http://today.ucf.edu/kevin-smith-from-camelot-to-the-lions-den/

Forever recognized as 24K, former UCF Knight Kevin Smith was finally given his deserved second chance against the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday.

And he didn’t disappoint.

The Detroit Lions reclaimed running back Kevin Smith off the couch a few weeks ago with honestly no clue on what he could bring to the table.

Well, he pounded the ball 16 times for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Then, he caught the rock four times for 61 yards and with the hat trick, a TD reception.

Fantasy waiver wires will be ringing off the hook for Kevin Smith pickups this week. Callers will have to hold, please.

Kevin is on the phone with Pam Smith. His biggest fan. His mom. The one who has always been there for him through thick and thin, home game or away game. She has believed in her son from the start.

We too need to become believers.

Kevin Smith has often been doubted as runner in his career, from high school to the college game and eventually at the pro level. Coming out of Southridge High, most colleges were recruiting him as a safety. Many schools believed he lacked the top-end speed and overall skill to be a collegiate back.

However, Ron Zook of the Florida Gators was highly recruiting the young man to play ball as tailback up at Gainesville. Kevin Smith’s path would shift directions though when Zook was fired and his best option to carry the ball would be at the University of Central Florida.

And the rest is history.

Smith began his freshman campaign with the winless UCF Golden Knights, led by head coach George O’Leary. The team had no expectations. Well, besides losing.

Kevin Smith, however, would be one of the many dynamic players that was able to turn things around for a team with no promise. The Golden Knights finished the 2005 season with an 8-6 record, reaching their first bowl game where Smith rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns.

However, the 2006 season would end up being a poor showing for a UCF squad with so much potential. They finished 4-8 that year.

2007. The year UCF built its on-campus, Bright House Networks Stadium. The year the team changed its logo and threw out the “Golden.” They were simply the Knights.

The same year that Kevin Smith would rush for 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns on 450 carries. He was a workhorse.

He was the offense. He was 24K.

It was a record-breaking year for Smith: 1) the most carries in a single season, 2) second in rushing yards in a single season, only 62 yards shy of the great Barry Sanders. The Knights would go on to win the Conference USA Championship but would end up losing their second bowl appearance at the Liberty Bowl.

Even after Smith’s historic season, he received little respect for his hard work. Was he listed on All-American teams? Yes.

But that all came after ESPN’s apology.

Yep, SportsCenter actually apologized for not publicizing his tremendous play that season. He would go on to finish eighth in Heisman voting.

Kevin Smith had quite a chock-full resumé when he entered the NFL Draft as a junior in 2008. He accumulated 4,864 yards on the ground and picked up 45 touchdowns in his short career at Central Florida.

After battling with the decision to stay or leave, Kevin Smith would enter the draft and go on to be selected by the Detroit Lions.

From his powerful throne in Camelot, Smith was tied up and led to the Lions’ den.

He joined a football team that was horrible on all levels and would actually go on to be perfect to say the least. 0-16. The greatest of all losing teams. And Kevin Smith was their tailback. But he still managed to rush for 976 yards and eight touchdowns. Not too shabby behind the NFL’s worst offensive line.

Injuries would follow Smith the next two seasons, cutting short any hope of a pro career in the NFL. After the 2010 season and two torn ACLs, Smith was not re-signed and was left to fight on his own.

After multiple YouTube attempts to showcase his talent and a five-day training routine for eight straight weeks,

Kevin Smith finally received a phone call to workout and prove his worth. And wouldn’t you know it…his former team was calling in dire need of a decent back.

After watching Kevin Smith run all over the Panthers’ defense this past Sunday, I actually got chills.

It is amazing to see a human being, who had everyone telling him he couldn’t make it, humbly walk on to the field and simply put, dominate. He is a man who was grateful for his opportunity. His second chance. A beast too, nonetheless.

As the old saying goes, “Mama knows best.”

And Pam Smith certainly knows her son well. He is a fighting man and a man of faith, one who understands that “God is good.”

Hopefully Kevin Smith can stick around so we can get to know him a bit better.

 

[rickyg]

http://today.ucf.edu/kevin-smith-from-camelot-to-the-lions-den/Forever recognized as 24K, former UCF Knight Kevin Smith was finally given his deserved second chance against the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday.And he didn’t disappoint.The Detroit Lions reclaimed running back Kevin Smith off the couch a few weeks ago with honestly no clue on what he could bring to the table.Well, he pounded the ball 16 times for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Then, he caught the rock four times for 61 yards and with the hat trick, a TD reception.Fantasy waiver wires will be ringing off the hook for Kevin Smith pickups this week. Callers will have to hold, please.Kevin is on the phone with Pam Smith. His biggest fan. His mom. The one who has always been there for him through thick and thin, home game or away game. She has believed in her son from the start.We too need to become believers.Kevin Smith has often been doubted as runner in his career, from high school to the college game and eventually at the pro level. Coming out of Southridge High, most colleges were recruiting him as a safety. Many schools believed he lacked the top-end speed and overall skill to be a collegiate back.However, Ron Zook of the Florida Gators was highly recruiting the young man to play ball as tailback up at Gainesville. Kevin Smith’s path would shift directions though when Zook was fired and his best option to carry the ball would be at the University of Central Florida.And the rest is history.Smith began his freshman campaign with the winless UCF Golden Knights, led by head coach George O’Leary. The team had no expectations. Well, besides losing.Kevin Smith, however, would be one of the many dynamic players that was able to turn things around for a team with no promise. The Golden Knights finished the 2005 season with an 8-6 record, reaching their first bowl game where Smith rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns.However, the 2006 season would end up being a poor showing for a UCF squad with so much potential. They finished 4-8 that year.2007. The year UCF built its on-campus, Bright House Networks Stadium. The year the team changed its logo and threw out the “Golden.” They were simply the Knights.The same year that Kevin Smith would rush for 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns on 450 carries. He was a workhorse. He was the offense. He was 24K.It was a record-breaking year for Smith: 1) the most carries in a single season, 2) second in rushing yards in a single season, only 62 yards shy of the great Barry Sanders. The Knights would go on to win the Conference USA Championship but would end up losing their second bowl appearance at the Liberty Bowl.Even after Smith’s historic season, he received little respect for his hard work. Was he listed on All-American teams? Yes.But that all came after ESPN’s apology.Yep, SportsCenter actually apologized for not publicizing his tremendous play that season. He would go on to finish eighth in Heisman voting.Kevin Smith had quite a chock-full resumé when he entered the NFL Draft as a junior in 2008. He accumulated 4,864 yards on the ground and picked up 45 touchdowns in his short career at Central Florida.After battling with the decision to stay or leave, Kevin Smith would enter the draft and go on to be selected by the Detroit Lions.From his powerful throne in Camelot, Smith was tied up and led to the Lions’ den.He joined a football team that was horrible on all levels and would actually go on to be perfect to say the least. 0-16. The greatest of all losing teams. And Kevin Smith was their tailback. But he still managed to rush for 976 yards and eight touchdowns. Not too shabby behind the NFL’s worst offensive line.Injuries would follow Smith the next two seasons, cutting short any hope of a pro career in the NFL. After the 2010 season and two torn ACLs, Smith was not re-signed and was left to fight on his own.After multiple YouTube attempts to showcase his talent and a five-day training routine for eight straight weeks, Kevin Smith finally received a phone call to workout and prove his worth. And wouldn’t you know it…his former team was calling in dire need of a decent back.After watching Kevin Smith run all over the Panthers’ defense this past Sunday, I actually got chills.It is amazing to see a human being, who had everyone telling him he couldn’t make it, humbly walk on to the field and simply put, dominate. He is a man who was grateful for his opportunity. His second chance. A beast too, nonetheless.As the old saying goes, “Mama knows best.”And Pam Smith certainly knows her son well. He is a fighting man and a man of faith, one who understands that “God is good.”Hopefully Kevin Smith can stick around so we can get to know him a bit better.

Awesome

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

My thought here is Chris Johnson went crazy vs Carolina... and now Kevin has.

What would you realistically expect vs Green Bay?

 

[steelwind]

My thought here is Chris Johnson went crazy vs Carolina... and now Kevin has.What would you realistically expect vs Green Bay?

We will find out in three days.One thing I do know. The Lions offense will give Kevin Smith more chances to succeed than the Titans offense for Chris Johnson.

 

[jon_mx]

Kevin Smith will have 140 RuRe yards against the pack on Thursday.

 

[fCheeze]

Kevin Smith is fresh, talented, and playing some inspired football.

I will not take him out unless he let's me down, and am starting him against the Packers on thursday with confidence.

 

[Xue]

My thought here is Chris Johnson went crazy vs Carolina... and now Kevin has.What would you realistically expect vs Green Bay?

Chris Johnson needed 27 carries for 130 yards (4.8 YPC). That's not crazy!

 

[Xue]

I still think Best can do more with good blocking. But Smith can do more with poor blocking. Best's talent can't be denied IMO. Neither can Smiths though. But it's a tough call I think in determining who is better.

This doesn't make sense. Wouldn't (insert any RB name) do more with good blocking? So Best can't do anything unless there is good blocking? What's that say about his "talent"? Doesn't that answer your "tough call" as to "who is better"?Best needs a clean path to run through, otherwise he just runs into his linemen. Smith can navigate his way through junk at the line and can make guys miss. Jahvid Best is the second coming of Reggie Bush. I'll take the guy that can break off a bunch of 10-15 yarders VS the guy that breaks a 50-yarder with a bunch of 3-4 yarders.

 

[The Jerk]

I still think Best can do more with good blocking. But Smith can do more with poor blocking. Best's talent can't be denied IMO. Neither can Smiths though. But it's a tough call I think in determining who is better.

This doesn't make sense. Wouldn't (insert any RB name) do more with good blocking? So Best can't do anything unless there is good blocking? What's that say about his "talent"? Doesn't that answer your "tough call" as to "who is better"?Best needs a clean path to run through, otherwise he just runs into his linemen. Smith can navigate his way through junk at the line and can make guys miss. Jahvid Best is the second coming of Reggie Bush. I'll take the guy that can break off a bunch of 10-15 yarders VS the guy that breaks a 50-yarder with a bunch of 3-4 yarders.

I'm not ready to put GManiac's post into the Shark Pool Hall of Fame, but I don't think he needs to be called out either. If you don't think it's a tough call, that's cool, but instead of being clever with his words, why not go the extra mile and attempt to understand why he might think that way?I think GManiac was emphasizing how Best can take a small crack due to crisp blocking and go for 50 yards. Given a similar situation, Smith might get much less yardage on the play. And I think he's probably right about that.Similarly, GManiac suggests Smith can finish runs more consistently and "take what's there" more consistently than Best, particularly if the plays are not cleanly blocked.So Best is the home run hitter and Smith has the higher average. There are pluses and minuses to each. I tend to lean more toward having a Smith, but against the Bears in Week 5 on MNF, I'm pretty sure that Best did things Smith couldn't do and allowed the Lions to win fairly easily by taking two plays for over 100 yards combined.Given that Smith 2.0 has a very small sample size and the benefit of having played a decidedly weak rush defense, I don't think it's illogical to wait for more data on Smith.There is also the issue of whether or not discussion is on "real" football or fantasy value, and if it is fantasy value, what type of fantasy league is being considered.For redrafts and/or the rest of 2011, I want Smith and it isn't close, but that's largely due to Best's concussion issues. In a dynasty setting, it's far more difficult to call, as Smith also has a long list of injury struggles. Posters have discussed Best vs. Smith vs. Leshoure, but it's distinctly possible a strong contender to all three might currently be on a college campus.If you can get Smith relatively cheap for the rest of 2011, do it. I grabbed him at my first opportunity, but I'm pretty desperate due to injuries and ineffective play at my weakest position. I'm absolutely loving what I got this past week, but I also realize Smith might not score three more TDs the rest of the season. But I'll gladly take the chance. Besides, I have had him on my roster twice in his past three seasons, so he's almost part of the family.If you have to give up a lot to get Smith in a redraft, it could easily be worth it, in particular if you are sacrificing depth elsewhere. However, if you have to give up a lot to get Smith in a dynasty, then I hope you're really needing to go for it this year because it could be all you get out of him.

 

[GManiac]

I still think Best can do more with good blocking. But Smith can do more with poor blocking. Best's talent can't be denied IMO. Neither can Smiths though. But it's a tough call I think in determining who is better.

This doesn't make sense. Wouldn't (insert any RB name) do more with good blocking? So Best can't do anything unless there is good blocking? What's that say about his "talent"? Doesn't that answer your "tough call" as to "who is better"?Best needs a clean path to run through, otherwise he just runs into his linemen. Smith can navigate his way through junk at the line and can make guys miss. Jahvid Best is the second coming of Reggie Bush. I'll take the guy that can break off a bunch of 10-15 yarders VS the guy that breaks a 50-yarder with a bunch of 3-4 yarders.

I'm not ready to put GManiac's post into the Shark Pool Hall of Fame, but I don't think he needs to be called out either. If you don't think it's a tough call, that's cool, but instead of being clever with his words, why not go the extra mile and attempt to understand why he might think that way?I think GManiac was emphasizing how Best can take a small crack due to crisp blocking and go for 50 yards. Given a similar situation, Smith might get much less yardage on the play. And I think he's probably right about that.Similarly, GManiac suggests Smith can finish runs more consistently and "take what's there" more consistently than Best, particularly if the plays are not cleanly blocked.So Best is the home run hitter and Smith has the higher average. There are pluses and minuses to each. I tend to lean more toward having a Smith, but against the Bears in Week 5 on MNF, I'm pretty sure that Best did things Smith couldn't do and allowed the Lions to win fairly easily by taking two plays for over 100 yards combined.Given that Smith 2.0 has a very small sample size and the benefit of having played a decidedly weak rush defense, I don't think it's illogical to wait for more data on Smith.There is also the issue of whether or not discussion is on "real" football or fantasy value, and if it is fantasy value, what type of fantasy league is being considered.For redrafts and/or the rest of 2011, I want Smith and it isn't close, but that's largely due to Best's concussion issues. In a dynasty setting, it's far more difficult to call, as Smith also has a long list of injury struggles. Posters have discussed Best vs. Smith vs. Leshoure, but it's distinctly possible a strong contender to all three might currently be on a college campus.If you can get Smith relatively cheap for the rest of 2011, do it. I grabbed him at my first opportunity, but I'm pretty desperate due to injuries and ineffective play at my weakest position. I'm absolutely loving what I got this past week, but I also realize Smith might not score three more TDs the rest of the season. But I'll gladly take the chance. Besides, I have had him on my roster twice in his past three seasons, so he's almost part of the family.If you have to give up a lot to get Smith in a redraft, it could easily be worth it, in particular if you are sacrificing depth elsewhere. However, if you have to give up a lot to get Smith in a dynasty, then I hope you're really needing to go for it this year because it could be all you get out of him.

Thank you for perfectly explaining and expanding on my statement. I did think my statement was enough to get the point across but it seems I was wrong. You however did a bang up job. Couldn't have explained it better.

 

[GManiac]

And ya know, Best is still ranked 77th in my league in overall production. That is non PPR, IDP. Basic scoring otherwise. He was producing very well before his concussion took him out of action.

 

[The Jerk]

Thank you for perfectly explaining and expanding on my statement. I did think my statement was enough to get the point across but it seems I was wrong. You however did a bang up job. Couldn't have explained it better.

I appreciate the compliment. I thought your point was relevant and worthy of expansion. And despite the semi-aggressive tone, except for the "it doesn't make sense" part, so was the point of the other poster. So I just tried to pull it all together.We all fancy ourselves to be some degree of a football expert, but the painful truth is that far too often, we just don't know what's going to happen. Like the famous Jim Mora quote -- no, not "playoffs!" -- ”You. Don’t. Know. You think you know, but you just don’t know. And you never … will.”It's all about educated guesses, playing the percentages, and ever so often, going with your gut against the odds. Just like fantasy football is rightly considered a combination of skill and luck, so also it is a combination of "science" and art. The trick is finding the right balance, being informed enough to enable your gut to be correct.With regard to Kevin Smith, the numbers clearly screamed out that the current group of Lion running backs through Week 10 (absent Best, but even to some extent WITH Best) were simply not getting it done, even if Detroit was a passing team with a weak run-blocking line. The art part is hearing the rationale given by Coach Schwartz as to why Smith was signed. He didn't say it was specifically for depth, rather he said he looked too good not to sign. Another way of reading that was he looked better than what they had, at least in some way.Now it could have backfired if Schwartz was just blowing smoke. And, come on, 200 yards and 3 TDs were a near cosmic convergence of opportunity, fortune and bad rushing defense.Looking at Week 12 and the rest of the season, we now have some "science" to tell us Smith can be productive, the question is how much will others take away from him and how much will Detroit continue to be able to do on the ground. Ignoring the talent and raw speed of Best is foolish, but ignoring his concussion issue, in particular for 2011, is similarly ill-advised. I see Smith as clearly the back to own for the rest of 2011. Unlikely as I believe it is that Best plays again before Week 17 or the playoffs, the possibility still exists for him to come back earlier. Even then, however, I believe Best would get limited action. But 2012 and beyond, Best clearly could be a major contributor if he can avoid getting concussions. A big if.Anyway, sorry for getting all long-winded again, but to me, DeMarco Murray and Kevin Smith may be the running back pickups of the year for 2011. Handling this situation correctly could be the difference in crowning champions in a substantial number of leagues this season.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I plugged Smith in due to injuries and bye week in my dynasty league. Was out of contention but felt guilty about starting guys not playing after reading threads about tanking for draft picks. So now that I'm going from looking at the top 2-3 picks in 2012 to maybe 7-8 what do I do with Smith? Trade now or see if he can keep this up and be a factor next year?

 

[The Jerk]

I plugged Smith in due to injuries and bye week in my dynasty league. Was out of contention but felt guilty about starting guys not playing after reading threads about tanking for draft picks. So now that I'm going from looking at the top 2-3 picks in 2012 to maybe 7-8 what do I do with Smith? Trade now or see if he can keep this up and be a factor next year?

See what you can get for Smith in a trade. If you can parlay one week from a player who is not guaranteed to see considerable playing time next year into a player who projects to be a solid starter next season, and particularly if you have a need that can be filled, then you probably should do it. You have to decide how strongly you feel about Smith in 2012 and beyond and make a call.You can always be wrong on a trade, but that's FF for you. The point is, it's your team. Let posters inform your decision, but in the end, it's your call.

 

[Bayhawks]

I appreciate the compliment. I thought your point was relevant and worthy of expansion. And despite the semi-aggressive tone, except for the "it doesn't make sense" part, so was the point of the other poster. So I just tried to pull it all together.We all fancy ourselves to be some degree of a football expert, but the painful truth is that far too often, we just don't know what's going to happen. Like the famous Jim Mora quote -- no, not "playoffs!" -- ”You. Don’t. Know. You think you know, but you just don’t know. And you never … will.”It's all about educated guesses, playing the percentages, and ever so often, going with your gut against the odds. Just like fantasy football is rightly considered a combination of skill and luck, so also it is a combination of "science" and art. The trick is finding the right balance, being informed enough to enable your gut to be correct.With regard to Kevin Smith, the numbers clearly screamed out that the current group of Lion running backs through Week 10 (absent Best, but even to some extent WITH Best) were simply not getting it done, even if Detroit was a passing team with a weak run-blocking line. The art part is hearing the rationale given by Coach Schwartz as to why Smith was signed. He didn't say it was specifically for depth, rather he said he looked too good not to sign. Another way of reading that was he looked better than what they had, at least in some way.Now it could have backfired if Schwartz was just blowing smoke. And, come on, 200 yards and 3 TDs were a near cosmic convergence of opportunity, fortune and bad rushing defense.Looking at Week 12 and the rest of the season, we now have some "science" to tell us Smith can be productive, the question is how much will others take away from him and how much will Detroit continue to be able to do on the ground. Ignoring the talent and raw speed of Best is foolish, but ignoring his concussion issue, in particular for 2011, is similarly ill-advised. I see Smith as clearly the back to own for the rest of 2011. Unlikely as I believe it is that Best plays again before Week 17 or the playoffs, the possibility still exists for him to come back earlier. Even then, however, I believe Best would get limited action. But 2012 and beyond, Best clearly could be a major contributor if he can avoid getting concussions. A big if.Anyway, sorry for getting all long-winded again, but to me, DeMarco Murray and Kevin Smith may be the running back pickups of the year for 2011. Handling this situation correctly could be the difference in crowning champions in a substantial number of leagues this season.

OK, now you're just showing off.Seriously, though,

 

[The Jerk]

OK, now you're just showing off.Seriously, though,

Sorry... I did get carried away a little. I've had some time on my hands this morning. Can you tell?

 

[LittlePhatty]

to me, DeMarco Murray and Kevin Smith may be the running back pickups of the year for 2011. Handling this situation correctly could be the difference in crowning champions in a substantial number of leagues this season.

Agreed.

temper your expectations...the Panthers run defense is horrendous.

No one expects 3 TDs any week out of a running back so there's a lot of room for "tempering expectations".Even 80 yards and a score is great for a waiver wire RB this late in the season.

 

[GreedoShotFirst]

I'm seating underperforming Hakeem Nicks for Smith this week.

 

[Gopher State]

Smith is worth an add no doubt, but the car is number 30 in total yards rusning allowed-- 140 yards allowed per game--, Green Bay is 12th against the rush, so I would temper what you expect smith will do against the Packers. Smith will have some good weeks, but he have some Stinkers also, just hope you don't need him when he comes up light.

 

[The Doctor]

benching benson and cj2ypc for smith.

dont let me down!!

 

[steelwind]

Rotoworld...

"Kevin Smith was taking the first-team reps at Lions practice Monday.

As expected. After the first quarter last week, Smith received 19 touches while Maurice Morris got four and Keiland Williams saw zero. It's obvious that the fresh Smith is the new feature back in this offense, thanks in large part to his effectiveness in the passing game. While he won't face the Panthers' anemic defense every week, he will get the majority of backfield snaps going forward. Smith is the top waiver add as we head into Week 12"

 

[southeastjerome]

Not surprisingly, Smith took the first team reps today at practice. https://twitter.com/#!/cmccosky/statuses/139014054751641600

 

[The Jerk]

Smith is worth an add no doubt, but the car is number 30 in total yards rusning allowed-- 140 yards allowed per game--, Green Bay is 12th against the rush, so I would temper what you expect smith will do against the Packers. Smith will have some good weeks, but he have some Stinkers also, just hope you don't need him when he comes up light.

As stated earlier, the fact that GB has been in the lead all season long has required teams to attempt to pass far more than run. As a result, rushing yards are deflated, yards per carry arguably gets inflated, and passing yards allowed skews much higher. More importantly, Smith can get his yards in the receiving game as well, so a limited rushing performance does not necessarily mean Smith will have a bad game.

 

[drater]

Just like GB's #9 run defense rank is inflated by teams being forced to pass, the 4.7 ypc average is inflated due to GB expecting the pass (so the occasional draw or other run is more productive) and due to teams rarely having the time to be able to punch in TDs on the ground from close.

While, I agree with this premise in theory, the numbers tell a different story. Middle of the pack (no pun, 15th) in carries/20+ yard plays (1:36 carries), 19th in carries/40+ yard plays (1:108.5 carries).Defenses with similarly bad YPC and their ratios show that of the "bad" run D's by average, GB seems more likely to get gashed for consistent gains vs giving up huge plays. I wish I had access to the 10+ yards plays to dig in deeper but unfortunately no.Team YPC Allowed Cars/20+ Cars/40+Oakland Raiders 5.2 17 127.5New Orleans Saints 5.2 21.27 58.5Detroit Lions 5.0 22.58 54.2Chicago Bears 4.9 29.29 68.33St. Louis Rams 4.8 34.11 76.75Carolina Panthers 4.8 22.62 73.5Green Bay Packers 4.7 36.17 108.5Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.7 23.75 285

The bottom line is that Smith can do damage in any scenario. If the Lions keep it close, he will get more runs. If they get down big, he will get more receptions.

 

[southeastjerome]

Smith is worth an add no doubt, but the car is number 30 in total yards rusning allowed-- 140 yards allowed per game--, Green Bay is 12th against the rush, so I would temper what you expect smith will do against the Packers. Smith will have some good weeks, but he have some Stinkers also, just hope you don't need him when he comes up light.

As stated earlier, the fact that GB has been in the lead all season long has required teams to attempt to pass far more than run. As a result, rushing yards are deflated, yards per carry arguably gets inflated, and passing yards allowed skews much higher. More importantly, Smith can get his yards in the receiving game as well, so a limited rushing performance does not necessarily mean Smith will have a bad game.

True. They are 25th in the league allowing 4.7 ypc.

 

[The Jerk]

Just like GB's #9 run defense rank is inflated by teams being forced to pass, the 4.7 ypc average is inflated due to GB expecting the pass (so the occasional draw or other run is more productive) and due to teams rarely having the time to be able to punch in TDs on the ground from close.

While, I agree with this premise in theory, the numbers tell a different story. Middle of the pack (no pun, 15th) in carries/20+ yard plays (1:36 carries), 19th in carries/40+ yard plays (1:108.5 carries).Defenses with similarly bad YPC and their ratios show that of the "bad" run D's by average, GB seems more likely to get gashed for consistent gains vs giving up huge plays. I wish I had access to the 10+ yards plays to dig in deeper but unfortunately no.Team YPC Allowed Cars/20+ Cars/40+Oakland Raiders 5.2 17 127.5New Orleans Saints 5.2 21.27 58.5Detroit Lions 5.0 22.58 54.2Chicago Bears 4.9 29.29 68.33St. Louis Rams 4.8 34.11 76.75Carolina Panthers 4.8 22.62 73.5Green Bay Packers 4.7 36.17 108.5Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.7 23.75 285

The bottom line is that Smith can do damage in any scenario. If the Lions keep it close, he will get more runs. If they get down big, he will get more receptions.

Thanks.That's good work.In some ways, that fits the paradigm as well. If Green Bay is sitting back in a prevent-ish defense more often than the average team, the entire design is to prevent big plays -- including rushes -- and be more willing to allow teams to get 5 or 10 yards rather than get big chunks of yardage.I should have said it's "possible" or "likely" that the ypc gets inflated due to GB typically being in pass defense mode. If nothing else, it may be that GB spends a very high percentage in nickel or dime, probably in the top 5 in the league.To really dig into this, normalization of the statistics based on the rushing offenses Green Bay has faced would also need to be undertaken.Whether it's an educated guess or a random thought, my opinion is that if offenses were to run 25-30 times per game, I highly doubt they would average 4.7 ypc week in and week out against the Packers.

 

[drater]

Just like GB's #9 run defense rank is inflated by teams being forced to pass, the 4.7 ypc average is inflated due to GB expecting the pass (so the occasional draw or other run is more productive) and due to teams rarely having the time to be able to punch in TDs on the ground from close.

While, I agree with this premise in theory, the numbers tell a different story. Middle of the pack (no pun, 15th) in carries/20+ yard plays (1:36 carries), 19th in carries/40+ yard plays (1:108.5 carries).Defenses with similarly bad YPC and their ratios show that of the "bad" run D's by average, GB seems more likely to get gashed for consistent gains vs giving up huge plays. I wish I had access to the 10+ yards plays to dig in deeper but unfortunately no.Team YPC Allowed Cars/20+ Cars/40+Oakland Raiders 5.2 17 127.5New Orleans Saints 5.2 21.27 58.5Detroit Lions 5.0 22.58 54.2Chicago Bears 4.9 29.29 68.33St. Louis Rams 4.8 34.11 76.75Carolina Panthers 4.8 22.62 73.5Green Bay Packers 4.7 36.17 108.5Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4.7 23.75 285

The bottom line is that Smith can do damage in any scenario. If the Lions keep it close, he will get more runs. If they get down big, he will get more receptions.

Thanks.That's good work.In some ways, that fits the paradigm as well. If Green Bay is sitting back in a prevent-ish defense more often than the average team, the entire design is to prevent big plays -- including rushes -- and be more willing to allow teams to get 5 or 10 yards rather than get big chunks of yardage.I should have said it's "possible" or "likely" that the ypc gets inflated due to GB typically being in pass defense mode. If nothing else, it may be that GB spends a very high percentage in nickel or dime, probably in the top 5 in the league.To really dig into this, normalization of the statistics based on the rushing offenses Green Bay has faced would also need to be undertaken.Whether it's an educated guess or a random thought, my opinion is that if offenses were to run 25-30 times per game, I highly doubt they would average 4.7 ypc week in and week out against the Packers.

Considering they have the 3rd least carries against, 100% agree. I wasn't trying to disprove anything you said personally, rather responding to what I felt was some insightful commentary, worth digging deeper into. I think we both agree that by numerous metrics, Kevin Smith is a good play this week. And with games coming up against NO & Oakland and two decidedly average run defenses in Minny & SD (plus week 17 again @ GB for those of you still playing that late), he'll have plenty of opportunities to continue to prove himself.

 

[The Jerk]

I wasn't trying to disprove anything you said personally, rather responding to what I felt was some insightful commentary, worth digging deeper into.

I didn't see it that way at all. I admire someone who is trying to quantify an issue, rather than shouting their viewpoint one way or the other. And I'll be the first to tell you that there are many times where I get something wrong, and in those cases, it's helpful to everyone, most of all me, when it is proved to be wrong. Again, good work digging up the stats.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ok, let me ask this:

- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.

Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.

Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?

Ok, so what happened there?

 

[TheCommish]

Ok, let me ask this:- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?Ok, so what happened there?

200 total yards and 3 TDs happened there

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ok, let me ask this:- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?Ok, so what happened there?

200 total yards and 3 TDs happened there

Ha, ok, thanks, saw that.I guessed the Lions management just missed all that talent waiting to explode.

 

[zamboni]

Ok, let me ask this:- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?Ok, so what happened there?

200 total yards and 3 TDs happened there

Ha, ok, thanks, saw that.I guessed the Lions management just missed all that talent waiting to explode.

It may have been the case that they totally put him in the rear view mirror once they cut him after his injuries, figuring he was done. Then he tried out and as we know now, Schwartz was very impressed enough to sign him back.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Ok, let me ask this:- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?Ok, so what happened there?

Paraphrasing earlier responses in this thread, it appears he came back from what the Lions thought was a debilitating injury and he did a lot of hard work while he was away. Physically in terrific shape, cut, and even improved his college 40 time. Seems even the Lions were sleeping on him. He left K. Williams in the dust on the depth chart after only being with the team a couple of weeks. Now we all know Morris is NFL chopped liver, and poses no real competition to the upside and talent of Smith. He's not Best 2.0. He may actually be better for what the Lions are needing from him. Less homeruns, and more chain moving. He complements the potent passing attack better than Best did, even though Best is a good receiver. The Lions are a playoff team with a competent runner, and they have been searching for someone like Kevin Smith. For fantasy purposes, he's got a great slate of games ahead of him, and cold weather games with playoff implications all point to Smith having an impact even better than a "Best 2.0".

 

[steelwind]

Ok, let me ask this:- Smith was great in college; lots were high on him early.Then little happens, he later gets cut.... the Lions obviously ranked all of Morris, Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Harrison (!) above him.Now he's Best Ver. 2.0 and more?Ok, so what happened there?

Jim Schwartz became the head coach in 2009 a year after Kevin Smith was drafted. We see this in the NFL all the time. Schwartz came in 2009 and he gave the featured back role to Kevin Smith. But in 2009 was when Smith got bit by the injury bug. Schwartz' first year the Lions went 2-14 when the year before the Lions went 0 - 16. So this is a classic case of "We're starting over". Schwartz drafted Best in 2010 then LeShoure in 2011. Kevin Smith's production declined due to injuries, he wasn't a draft pick made by Schwartz and the urgency to move away from the 0 - 16, 0 - 14 seasons I believe is why Kevin Smith was lost.But give credit to Jim Schwartz for bringing Kevin Smith back. It's crazy but so many things had to happen in order for Kevin Smith to get this second chance. And all of those things happened. You just have to say that Kevin Smith was meant to come back. If you think about it, it's as if Jim Schwartz drafted Kevin Smith...except in 2011 in week 9 of the season. I can't say about the future, but I know right now in 2011 Kevin Smith is Jim Schwartz' guy.

 

[The Jerk]

I guessed the Lions management just missed all that talent waiting to explode.

He couldn't stay healthy in 2009 or 2010. As a result he was questionable to be available, and when available, he was not productive. The Lions gave up on Smith during the 2010 season, and cemented that they saw Best and Leshoure as their future when they drafted Leshoure.However, Leshoure was hurt before the season even began, and then Best couldn't stay healthy. During bye-week tryouts, Smith was too impressive for Schwartz and the Lions to ignore him. In fact, one could argue that during that tryout, they saw in Smith a running back with "talent waiting to explode" Sorry... couldn't resist.Smith is not the same player he was last season when the Lions released him. He's faster, in much better shape, and he has more desire because he knows how fortunate he is to have a second chance. How far this all takes him and/or Detroit (and/or his fantasy owners) is unclear, but he's not just some random truck driver who the Lions signed to get another warm body.

 

[The Jerk]

I should add that when Smith was healthy, the Lions offense was not nearly as dynamic and the team as a whole was miserable. The Lions were 4-40 or something from the start of the 2008 season until December of 2010.

Smith has never had both his health and a strong offense around him. Perhaps as much as Kevin Smith has changed, so have the variables surrounding him. In other words, he doesn't need to be that much better than he was in the past for his productivity to go way up. Playing alongside multiple top 3 draft picks has a tendency to help.

 

[LOCO]

does anyone know if he is taking first team snaps?

 

[zamboni]

does anyone know if he is taking first team snaps?

May have been posted above or in another thread, but yes:(Rotoworld) Kevin Smith was taking the first-team reps at Lions practice Monday. Analysis: As expected. After the first quarter last week, Smith received 19 touches while Maurice Morris got four and Keiland Williams saw zero. It's obvious that the fresh Smith is the new feature back in this offense, thanks in large part to his effectiveness in the passing game. While he won't face the Panthers' anemic defense every week, he will get the majority of backfield snaps going forward. Smith is the top waiver add as we head into Week 12.

 

[netnalp]

Clayton (ESPN) says Best has been ruled out for Thanksgiving Day game.

 

[yoadrian]

I guessed the Lions management just missed all that talent waiting to explode.

He couldn't stay healthy in 2009 or 2010. As a result he was questionable to be available, and when available, he was not productive. The Lions gave up on Smith during the 2010 season, and cemented that they saw Best and Leshoure as their future when they drafted Leshoure.However, Leshoure was hurt before the season even began, and then Best couldn't stay healthy. During bye-week tryouts, Smith was too impressive for Schwartz and the Lions to ignore him. In fact, one could argue that during that tryout, they saw in Smith a running back with "talent waiting to explode" Sorry... couldn't resist.

Smith is not the same player he was last season when the Lions released him. He's faster, in much better shape, and he has more desire because he knows how fortunate he is to have a second chance. How far this all takes him and/or Detroit (and/or his fantasy owners) is unclear, but he's not just some random truck driver who the Lions signed to get another warm body.

S U P E R B O W L