Great posting ATC. My backround is that of a sports physical therapist, having been fortunate enough to work extensively with collegiate and professional athletes; your analysis was right on.
I will add that in my experience, if the injury was severe enough for it to be audible, he may be lucky to even start jogging in 3 weeks (especially considering his style of play). The first problem is that we have no idea how severe the injury really is. As ATC stated, tears of the tendon take significantly longer to heal due to a relatively "poor" blood supply compared to the highly vascular muscle tissue. Second, I have seen too many hamstring injuries be looked upon as being "minor," only to have the athlete suffer a second and more severe injury. When I lecture, I drive home the point that there is nothing minor about a hamstring injury; not only can it be a season ending injury, but career threatening. The prognosis for his injury will greatly depend on how it is managed by the training / rehabilitative staff.
With the very limited and vague information we have,
I would estimate that he won't be back in 3 weeks, and it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that we see the same "tentativeness" that he displayed after his MCL last year.