Lack of sleeper RB's? Seems there are very few this year... (1 Viewer)

[dkocourek]

Not a whole lot of sleeper RB's come to mind right now for this year. There's been some backs posted on the thread that may have a chance to bust out, but probably a few things have to happen to give them the opportunity. I do like two guys chances and believe at some point, possibly even early in the season, that they could bust out some decent points.

1. DuJuan Harris(GB)- I get all the Lacy hype and rightfully so but I don't think Harris is just gonna say ok he's the starter. Management likes him and if he gets on the field and does good it might be hard for them to put him on the bench and Lacy might be relegated to goaline or 3rd down.

2. Joseph Randle(Dallas)- Murray's got talent but I'm not sure he'll hold up all 16 games. If he gets injured early Randle will take the ball and run with it,literally. DeMarco could have trouble getting his job back if Randle explodes. I don't feel Tanner will effect either of them.

What about Lance Dunbar? I think he's leading the backup race with Randle.

 

[cstu]

Not a whole lot of sleeper RB's come to mind right now for this year. There's been some backs posted on the thread that may have a chance to bust out, but probably a few things have to happen to give them the opportunity. I do like two guys chances and believe at some point, possibly even early in the season, that they could bust out some decent points.

1. DuJuan Harris(GB)- I get all the Lacy hype and rightfully so but I don't think Harris is just gonna say ok he's the starter. Management likes him and if he gets on the field and does good it might be hard for them to put him on the bench and Lacy might be relegated to goaline or 3rd down.

2. Joseph Randle(Dallas)- Murray's got talent but I'm not sure he'll hold up all 16 games. If he gets injured early Randle will take the ball and run with it,literally. DeMarco could have trouble getting his job back if Randle explodes. I don't feel Tanner will effect either of them.

What about Lance Dunbar? I think he's leading the backup race with Randle.

Dunbar is the guy you want.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Not a whole lot of sleeper RB's come to mind right now for this year. There's been some backs posted on the thread that may have a chance to bust out, but probably a few things have to happen to give them the opportunity. I do like two guys chances and believe at some point, possibly even early in the season, that they could bust out some decent points.

1. DuJuan Harris(GB)- I get all the Lacy hype and rightfully so but I don't think Harris is just gonna say ok he's the starter. Management likes him and if he gets on the field and does good it might be hard for them to put him on the bench and Lacy might be relegated to goaline or 3rd down.

2. Joseph Randle(Dallas)- Murray's got talent but I'm not sure he'll hold up all 16 games. If he gets injured early Randle will take the ball and run with it,literally. DeMarco could have trouble getting his job back if Randle explodes. I don't feel Tanner will effect either of them.

What about Lance Dunbar? I think he's leading the backup race with Randle.

Dunbar is the guy you want.

I actually meant to question this early. I dont expect Murray to land on my teams, but who knows if he drops far enough. If I do get him, who do I want, Randle or Dunbar? Id lean Dunbar but I havent followed this situation too close.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.

Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.

Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?

I dont understand what you are trying to say with the bolded.

As far as the rest, in my experience, rookies are typically the best values when it comes to RBs. Sure some will disappoint, but their ADPs are typically lower than the probably should be, and when they hit they are homerun picks. As for Vereen, based on the other options for 2013 Pats I have a strong inclination he is in line for a lot of touches this year. Sure, I guess that is "speculative use" as you called it, but he already looks like a big part of their gameplan to me.

What players are you drafting in the 1st through 4 rounds that causes you to target RB in round 5-6 is what I mean by that.

If this is a RB3 and 4 you are taking that can be fine. I was more coming from the place of if you had passed on RB in the early rounds to take QB, TE or multiple WR as some have talked about doing. Then if you were planning on a RB from the 5th-6th to be your RB2 I think that the value does not meet that risk. But I guess that is not your plan.

To get a RB3 you are going to want to do it this soon I agree because they will all dry up by around round 8 for the most part.

My comments more about the overall landscape where the value picks seem better at other positions than RB in round 5-6. I would much rather have Tom Brady than Romo.

The reason I call Shane Vereen a speculative play is because I do not think anyone knows how targets for the Patriots will be split right now. I have read some interesting things about what Vereen's role might be with Hernandez gone and I think that is very possible he could get some of that as well as replacing Woodhead.

Personally I do not like relying on high volume receptions for the value of my RB. That can quickly turn south on you if they do not get the targets. There are many possible scenario's for how targets get distributed in their offense. I think basing that role off of pre season and other research is speculative, as are all projections, but we have not seen that happen in the regular season yet. So it is more speculative than it is to consider Brady in the same round, who has much longer track record of being good. So while still speculative, much less so.

Mostly I am trying to avoid risks. It is still early in the draft. I would like to be picking more sure things if they are still available.

Brady's ADP is late 4th/early 5th. Knowing my league, Im fairly certain he wont go past that. And yes, as you mention in regards to Vereen's touches with Woodhead/Hernandez being gone, I think thats huge and the biggest reason that BB will utilize Vereen as one of the offense's biggest weapons. Vereen's ADP is late 6th. Despite different preferences, its not like Im saying Id take Vereen over Brady, Im saying I think Vereen is going to be big in this offense.

As for your 1st sentence that I bolded, Im not causing myself to draft those players because I neglected RB. I fully expect to come out of the first 4 rounds with 2 RBs and 2 WRs. Maybe someone slips but I doubt it. And Im not necessarily going RB/RB in the 5th and 6th, Im just particularly high on Lacy and Vereen, much moreso than the questionable RBs in the following rounds. Me liking them and disliking the rest are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Kenny Powers]

And tonight Gio really caught my attention to the point where I'll see where his ADP goes because I think he's another big value. I dont see how Cincy puts BJGE in their backfield very often.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree both Bernard and Lacy look for real. It is preseason though. I am trying to not get too excited.

I prefer Bernard because of better offensive line and more of a dual threat than Lacy. I also worry about Lacy's durability somewhat.

 

[silentcoach]

Ben Tate, L Blount, Toby Gerhart, Bilal Powell, Daniel Thomas with everyone in love with Miller, C. Michael, R. Turbin, Vick Ballard

BTate and Gerhart are NOT sleepers imo--they are handcuffs which would produce as a number 1 backs (OR number 2 like someone suggested below) if Foster or Peterson went down.

Sleeper to me is someone who is ALREADY starting or part of a RBBC that can at worst be a number 2 rb with a late ADP.

Or else I can name every backup and call them a "sleeper."

When has any RB ever been "at worst" a RB2 who had a late ADP?

I still do not see how naming handcuffs is "sleeper" status, because they are only startable after an injury to the starter. Just list the name of every backup rb and label him sleepers.

R.Helu, there...sleeper.

Lacy and Bernard may be "sleepers" because they already have a role on the offense and are still being drafted >24 rbs, so I get that.

 

[Leonidas]

I have no idea how it will shake out, but I got Bernard and Lacy on my bench in a draft this morning and am quite pleased with this. Would have loved to get Wilson too, but price was too high. Give me Lacy or Bernard over Ball or even Bell. Much more opportunity on those offenses IMO. Bell seems safer, and I understand why he is being drafted above all the rest, but the price tag is too high for me.

 

[rickyg]

After watching the way the jags used denard Robinson last night I'm going to go ahead and peg him as my dark horse sleeper this year.

It could amount to nothing but I liked the way he looked in thy backfield and the way they used him.

He is also listed as a wr/rb in yahoo which makes him more appealing as a bye week fill in.

An mjd injury would make him a hit commodity, but I think that the jags have every intention of getting him 10+ touches per game between rushes and receptions. He is pretty explosive.

Lets see what he can do with those touches by game 4-5.

 

[Crazysight]

Rookie sleepers I say D Robinson and Barner.

 

[Crazysight]

Maybe even Marcus Lattimore for late in the season if Gore should get injured. Gore stayed healthy for all of last year but had struggled with injuries on an almost yearly basis prior to that. Lattimore may seem like a stretch to come back so soon at this point in his recovery, but has anyone see the latest Under Armour commercial with him? Made me lose a lot of my doubt whether or not he's going to be able to come back full circle, it's definitely worth googling and watching. I wouldn't doubt a Dr. James Andrews patient either, we all saw how quickly Adrian Peterson was able to return, in unprecedented time and better than every for that matter.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Maybe even Marcus Lattimore for late in the season if Gore should get injured. Gore stayed healthy for all of last year but had struggled with injuries on an almost yearly basis prior to that. Lattimore may seem like a stretch to come back so soon at this point in his recovery, but has anyone see the latest Under Armour commercial with him? Made me lose a lot of my doubt whether or not he's going to be able to come back full circle, it's definitely worth googling and watching. I wouldn't doubt a Dr. James Andrews patient either, we all saw how quickly Adrian Peterson was able to return, in unprecedented time and better than every for that matter.