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Lack of sleeper RB's? Seems there are very few this year... (1 Viewer)

death of the cool

Footballguy
I have been trying for weeks to come up with some late sleeper running backs that excite me, but I am at a lost. The position drops off a cliff after about the 8th or 9th round when the hancuffs like Pierce and Tate come off the board.

There are plenty of WR sleepers for the late rounds....from 2nd year players like Jeffery and Broyles to rookies like Hopkins. There are even sleeper TE's like Cameron and Sudfeld, but nothing too exciting at RB.

What's the play here? Add backups in solid running offensive systems? Maybe like Lamicheal James? Or add RB's on teams that have often injured stars like in Oakland and Dallas? What is the shark pool doing late in the drafts at RBs?

 
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Clifford

Footballguy
I like Lacy even though its hard for rookies to qualify as sleepers.

Bradshaw+Ballard combo could pay off like RB2 and cost only a 6th and a 10th

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
Ben Tate, L Blount, Toby Gerhart, Bilal Powell, Daniel Thomas with everyone in love with Miller, C. Michael, R. Turbin, Vick Ballard

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
Ben Tate, L Blount, Toby Gerhart, Bilal Powell, Daniel Thomas with everyone in love with Miller, C. Michael, R. Turbin, Vick Ballard
BTate and Gerhart are NOT sleepers imo--they are handcuffs which would produce as a number 1 backs (OR number 2 like someone suggested below) if Foster or Peterson went down.

Sleeper to me is someone who is ALREADY starting or part of a RBBC that can at worst be a number 2 rb with a late ADP.

Or else I can name every backup and call them a "sleeper."

 
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SameSongNDance

Footballguy
If we're talking deep sleeper, I will continue to do what I do every year, handcuff other peoples RBs who I believe to be injury prone, too old and etc. Opportunity is everything and although some handcuffs will clearly have more upside than others, situation takes precedence. This line of play has served me well in the past.

 
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Kenny Powers

Footballguy
I have been trying for weeks to come up with some late sleeper running backs that excite me, but I am at a lost. The position drops off a cliff after about the 8th or 9th round when the hancuffs like Pierce and Tate come off the board.
If youre looking for a RB sleeper past that point in the draft, it usually just comes down to luck, ie the RB ahead of them gets injured. So I dont really consider those guys sleepers.

The RB sleepers to me are the ones that are undervalued and going in the mid-rounds before the point where it gets to backups/handcuffs like you mention. For me, those "RB sleepers" that Im targetting are Lacy and Vereen in the 5th-6th (I think right now my actual plan is to go Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th any draft I can do that/still available as my RB3 and RB4). If I end up pulling that off, I'll likely lay of RB for awhile, but the other RBs I like are Ingram or DWill in the 8th, Ballard in the 9th.

Late round (15th+) fliers that I like are Powell, Moreno, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, Helu, Polk

 

Terpman22

Footballguy
Roy Helu. Should be the 3rd down guy and with Morris getting a ton of carries (expected), this guy could be valuable.

 

Buffaloes

Footballguy
Ben Tate, L Blount, Toby Gerhart, Bilal Powell, Daniel Thomas with everyone in love with Miller, C. Michael, R. Turbin, Vick Ballard
Sleeper to me is someone who is ALREADY starting or part of a RBBC that can at worst be a number 2 rb with a late ADP.
sleeper is a relative term. I don't consider an already starting RB a 'sleeper' by any means. In fact, I don't think many ppl would list an 'at worst' RB2 as a 'sleeper.'

 
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Leonidas

Footballguy
...If youre looking for a RB sleeper past that point in the draft, it usually just comes down to luck, ie the RB ahead of them gets injured. So I dont really consider those guys sleepers.
The RB sleepers to me are the ones that are undervalued and going in the mid-rounds before the point where it gets to backups/handcuffs like you mention. For me, those "RB sleepers" that Im targetting are Lacy and Vereen in the 5th-6th (I think right now my actual plan is to go Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th any draft I can do that/still available as my RB3 and RB4). If I end up pulling that off, I'll likely lay of RB for awhile, but the other RBs I like are Ingram or DWill in the 8th, Ballard in the 9th.

Late round (15th+) fliers that I like are Powell, Moreno, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, Helu, Polk
I agree.

Call my crazy, but my favorite mid round sleeper RB is Ryan Mathews.

These guys always come with serious risk though, of course.

After that I look for DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram, and Vick Ballard.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I am pretty sure I read somewhere that DeAngelo Williams ADP recently has been the 6th round.

I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.

 

famousb

Footballguy
...If youre looking for a RB sleeper past that point in the draft, it usually just comes down to luck, ie the RB ahead of them gets injured. So I dont really consider those guys sleepers.
The RB sleepers to me are the ones that are undervalued and going in the mid-rounds before the point where it gets to backups/handcuffs like you mention. For me, those "RB sleepers" that Im targetting are Lacy and Vereen in the 5th-6th (I think right now my actual plan is to go Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th any draft I can do that/still available as my RB3 and RB4). If I end up pulling that off, I'll likely lay of RB for awhile, but the other RBs I like are Ingram or DWill in the 8th, Ballard in the 9th.

Late round (15th+) fliers that I like are Powell, Moreno, Christine Michael, Knile Davis, Helu, Polk
I agree.

Call my crazy, but my favorite mid round sleeper RB is Ryan Mathews.

These guys always come with serious risk though, of course.

After that I look for DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram, and Vick Ballard.
agreed....

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
I am pretty sure I read somewhere that DeAngelo Williams ADP recently has been the 6th round.

I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
FFC currently lists him at 7.04 in standard 12 team leagues. I've been seeing him go later than that, but competition is to blame there. I have him as my RB3 in multiple leagues.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
I am pretty sure I read somewhere that DeAngelo Williams ADP recently has been the 6th round.

I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
FFC currently lists him at 7.04 in standard 12 team leagues. I've been seeing him go later than that, but competition is to blame there. I have him as my RB3 in multiple leagues.
My condolences.

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
I am pretty sure I read somewhere that DeAngelo Williams ADP recently has been the 6th round.

I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
FFC currently lists him at 7.04 in standard 12 team leagues. I've been seeing him go later than that, but competition is to blame there. I have him as my RB3 in multiple leagues.
My condolences.
I checked and apparently I don't. Think I've been mocking way too much recently where I take two durable stud RB's up front and wait on backup RB's and end up with him as RB3 or RB4, but haven't done it in an actual draft yet apparently.

The league I was thinking of I actually have Martin, CJ?K, Ingram, Ballard, and Bryce Brown. Not sure that's any better lulz

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
"Sleeper" is such a subjective term. I'm only concerned with value and players who have a chance to substantially outperform their ADP. For instance, Murray and DMC are going in the 3rd round in most drafts (projected as mid/low-end RB2s) yet possess obvious RB1 upside. A sleeper doesn't have to be deep.

I also have to echo some of the sentiments about Ryan Mathews. SD has looked awful thus far but Mathews has not. He still looks like the RB1 we all drooled over in the past. I predict he'll be moving up draft board as the preseason progresses.

 

ODannyBoy

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
 
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ODannyBoy

Footballguy
"Sleeper" is such a subjective term. I'm only concerned with value and players who have a chance to substantially outperform their ADP. For instance, Murray and DMC are going in the 3rd round in most drafts (projected as mid/low-end RB2s) yet possess obvious RB1 upside. A sleeper doesn't have to be deep.

I also have to echo some of the sentiments about Ryan Mathews. SD has looked awful thus far but Mathews has not. He still looks like the RB1 we all drooled over in the past. I predict he'll be moving up draft board as the preseason progresses.
I think that would be "undervalued" in my book. Sleeper to me means someone who can significantly outperform their end of the roster ADP by putting up startable numbers. A RB2 putting up RB1 nunbers, or a WR4 putting up WR3 numbers doesn't really meet my criteria.

The problem is that the internet and fantasy news is so inbred now, there really aren't sleepers anymore. No one is sleeping on them. Everyone knows and everyone is watching. So they don't go as cheap as they should in auction formats and they don't last as long in drafts because paranoia sets in and someone decides to reach for the upside of a sleeper instead of the higher floor of a known, older player.

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
How the heck do any of those quotes lead to Daniel Thomas expecting to see "considerable work - including the goal line work."??

 
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Run It Up

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
How the heck do any of those quotes lead to Daniel Thomas expecting to see a lot of goal line looks??
Because thats what his role has been since day one of camp...

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Curious. Links to those quotes?
Rotoworld > Player news > Dolphins RBs

You'll find about 3 pages worth of everyone saying that Miller will be the starter and that they have super high expectations for Thomas and have been impressed with him in camp. I'm not betting on it, but hes really the only one I would consider a 'sleeper'.

 
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ODannyBoy

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
Keep believing it if ya want. They didn't let Bush go because they had Daniel Thomas on the roster.

This is one of those situations where I think the OC and HC are trying to keep everyone hungry and giving maximum effort. If they need to dangle a carrot to keep Miller on his toes and keep Thomas motivated, this would be the thing to say. Because it gives Thomas hope and makes him think he's close, but it doesn't really say anything that commits them to him.

More specifically though, this short yardage and goal line stuff is news to me. Just because he's bigger doesn't make him better at it than Miller. I think thats just default thinking...they'll use the bigger back for short yardage and goalline work. I think he's the handcuff to own, at least for 2013. But expecting to find value in what he's going to get as leftovers week to week is a poor play in my book.

 

FatmanLittleboy

Footballguy
As I am watching the Cardinals play the Cowboys in pre-season Reshard Mendenhall looks pretty darned good. Averaged just over 4 yards a carry on 7 carries. Arizona o-line is gelling nicely.

This is a guy who turned in 1000 yards and ten touch downs three years straight for the same coach (Arians) before injury. I think he could be RB2 material and he's cheap.

 
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We Tigers

Footballguy
There aren't that many sleepers at RB in any given year in the same way there are 10th round receivers and tight ends who break out every year. An RB taken that late almost always needs an injury ahead of him.

I considered Martin and Ridley to be potential sleepers last year, and they were going in the 3rd and 5th by draft day--but massively overperformed those positions. I think the best chances to do something similar this year are Miller, Ball, and Bernard, though the latter 2 in particular have a lot of obstacles.

If you really want a late-round RB who's on the backside of a committee but could still have a top-25 year, I'd look at Woodhead (10th round) or Bryce Brown (late 8th). They'll each see enough work that if they do something special with it, they'll break through.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
Keep believing it if ya want. They didn't let Bush go because they had Daniel Thomas on the roster.

This is one of those situations where I think the OC and HC are trying to keep everyone hungry and giving maximum effort. If they need to dangle a carrot to keep Miller on his toes and keep Thomas motivated, this would be the thing to say. Because it gives Thomas hope and makes him think he's close, but it doesn't really say anything that commits them to him.

More specifically though, this short yardage and goal line stuff is news to me. Just because he's bigger doesn't make him better at it than Miller. I think thats just default thinking...they'll use the bigger back for short yardage and goalline work. I think he's the handcuff to own, at least for 2013. But expecting to find value in what he's going to get as leftovers week to week is a poor play in my book.
Daniel Thomas was the goal line back while Miller and Bush were there.

 

Riversco

Footballguy
I think sleepers emerge for mostly two reasons:

1. Injury

2. New coaching staff doing new things most fans don't understand yet because they don't watch practices / preseason etc.

Can't predict #1. So best shot to find sleepers is #2.

Look around at the new coaching staffs and think about key players emerging.

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
I think sleepers emerge for mostly two reasons:

1. Injury

2. New coaching staff doing new things most fans don't understand yet because they don't watch practices / preseason etc.

Can't predict #1. So best shot to find sleepers is #2.

Look around at the new coaching staffs and think about key players emerging.
I don't know, I think 9 out of every 10 people I talked to last year predicted Darren McFadden being injured.

 

ODannyBoy

Footballguy
Well I think Daniel Thomas is really the only one that fits the 'sleeper' status.

Hes going undrafted in a lot of leagues and hes expected to get considerable work - including the goal line work.
The only people expecting him to get considerable work are Daniel Thomas and maybe GM Ireland.
Coach, OC and GM - literally the only people that matter.

Dolphins coach Joe Philbin says he's been pleased with Daniel Thomas' running and pass blocking through two-plus weeks of camp.
Dolphins OC Mike Sherman said Sunday the team's running back competition is "pretty close" between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland expects Daniel Thomas to have a "breakout season."
How the heck do any of those quotes lead to Daniel Thomas expecting to see a lot of goal line looks??
Because thats what his role has been since day one of camp...
Dude, I've gone back and checked the Rotoworld blurbs and there were like two blurbs referring to media speculation that Thomas will get short yardage and goal line work. I saw nothing that indicates that his role in camp has been that or that the coaches have given indications they intend to use him as such. So what is your source again?

And Thomas's history would be the prime evidence against that. He doesn't run like a big power back. Why anyone would consider him the best choice for that work is beyond me.

There were blurbs where the coaches were praising Miller's improvement in pass pro and also saying that they prefer a complete back so you don't have to tip your hand with personnel changes.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Dude, I've gone back and checked the Rotoworld blurbs and there were like two blurbs referring to media speculation that Thomas will get short yardage and goal line work. I saw nothing that indicates that his role in camp has been that or that the coaches have given indications they intend to use him as such. So what is your source again?And Thomas's history would be the prime evidence against that. He doesn't run like a big power back. Why anyone would consider him the best choice for that work is beyond me.

There were blurbs where the coaches were praising Miller's improvement in pass pro and also saying that they prefer a complete back so you don't have to tip your hand with personnel changes.
K. We can both keep agreeing that he is an awful running back, ill spend my 18th pick on a RB who will get goal line work. Ill stop wasting my time just repeating common knowledge now.

 

Time Kibitzer

Footballguy
I think Mark Ingram has some huge upside for someone going in the 8th round.

After him and the standard handcuff RBs like Pierce and Tate, I think Marcell Reece (currently with an ADP in the 13th round) is my go to. McFadden is far from a picture of health, and Reece was pretty good in the 3 game stretch of starts in the middle of last season, plus he's a really good pass catcher. I know the Raiders brought in Rashad Jennings, but he sucks imo, so I don't think he'll be the guy to own if McFadden goes down.

Joique Bell, Zac Stacy, Knile Davis, Andre Ellington, DuJuan Harris, Denard Robinson, Jon Dwyer, Christine Michael, and Helu/Royster are guys to keep an eye on, but I don't think I'd waste a roster spot on any of them.

 

althepostman

Footballguy
Anyone that thinks Daniel Thomas is a threat to take any meaningful work from Miller is higher than Mt. Everest. Anyhting Ireland said can be dismissed, he's still trying to play up Thomas because he traded up to take him in the draft. He needs to man up and admit his mistake.

This is the telling quote from Rotoworld

Dolphins OC Mike Sherman told reporters Sunday he wants a running back who can "do it all" and function as an every-down player.
 
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Thursday

Footballguy
Joique Bell

Danny Woodhead

Jonathan Stewart

Christine Michael

Fred Jackson

Bryce Brown / Chris Polk (Whoever the #2 RB is in Philadelphia)

Shonn Greene

Lots of guys IMO.

 
Not a whole lot of sleeper RB's come to mind right now for this year. There's been some backs posted on the thread that may have a chance to bust out, but probably a few things have to happen to give them the opportunity. I do like two guys chances and believe at some point, possibly even early in the season, that they could bust out some decent points.

1. DuJuan Harris(GB)- I get all the Lacy hype and rightfully so but I don't think Harris is just gonna say ok he's the starter. Management likes him and if he gets on the field and does good it might be hard for them to put him on the bench and Lacy might be relegated to goaline or 3rd down.

2. Joseph Randle(Dallas)- Murray's got talent but I'm not sure he'll hold up all 16 games. If he gets injured early Randle will take the ball and run with it,literally. DeMarco could have trouble getting his job back if Randle explodes. I don't feel Tanner will effect either of them.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Kenny Powers said:
Biabreakable said:
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?
Peyton Manning. ;)

 

Christo

Footballguy
silentcoach said:
Tanner9919 said:
Ben Tate, L Blount, Toby Gerhart, Bilal Powell, Daniel Thomas with everyone in love with Miller, C. Michael, R. Turbin, Vick Ballard
BTate and Gerhart are NOT sleepers imo--they are handcuffs which would produce as a number 1 backs (OR number 2 like someone suggested below) if Foster or Peterson went down.

Sleeper to me is someone who is ALREADY starting or part of a RBBC that can at worst be a number 2 rb with a late ADP.

Or else I can name every backup and call them a "sleeper."
When has any RB ever been "at worst" a RB2 who had a late ADP?

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Kenny Powers said:
Biabreakable said:
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?
Peyton Manning. ;)
Fair enough. He might be gone by round 5 anyways. :)

Here is MFL ADP data from Aug 1st from real drafts with in 12 team PPR leagues-

1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.44 1 22 612
2. Martin, Doug TBB RB 3.87 1 286 615
3. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 5.18 1 121 616
4. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 5.26 1 35 614
5. Foster, Arian HOU RB 5.33 1 232 611
6. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 7.02 1 68 617
7. Richardson, Trent CLE RB 8.11 1 39 617
8. Rice, Ray BAL RB 8.61 1 30 612
9. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 10.08 2 194 614
10. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 11.88 1 63 615
11. Green, A.J. CIN WR 13.17 2 53 617
12. Bryant, Dez DAL WR 13.52 1 42 619

13. Forte, Matt CHI RB 15.69 4 49 619
14. Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 15.73 2 83 619
15. Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 16.20 1 38 618
16. Morris, Alfred WAS RB 16.76 2 141 616
17. Jones, Julio ATL WR 18.61 1 156 619
18. Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 21.08 6 115 620
19. Jackson, Steven ATL RB 21.72 4 82 618
20. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 21.75 1 132 609
21. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 21.96 3 101 616
22. Brees, Drew NOS QB 24.84 1 55 610
23. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 24.85 8 98 618
24. Cobb, Randall GBP WR 26.54 3 157 620

25. Bush, Reggie DET RB 27.35 3 107 619
26. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 28.30 6 108 617
27. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 28.40 11 62 619
28. White, Roddy ATL WR 29.95 6 90 620
29. Cruz, Victor NYG WR 31.25 10 109 619
30. Sproles, Darren NOS RB 31.48 9 125 618
31. Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 32.92 1 90 618
32. Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 33.18 12 168 617
33. McFadden, Darren OAK RB 36.10 8 137 615
34. Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 36.36 9 74 620
35. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 37.99 1 167 606
36. Miller, Lamar MIA RB 39.76 2 162 616

37. Gore, Frank SFO RB 40.06 4 116 616
38. Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 40.51 1 125 614
39. Wilson, David NYG RB 40.68 5 140 614
40. Newton, Cam CAR QB 41.15 2 183 608
41. Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 42.03 6 89 618
42. Welker, Wes DEN WR 42.14 2 117 618
43. Amendola, Danny NEP WR 43.26 5 137 619
44. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 45.20 1 151 613
45. Colston, Marques NOS WR 45.43 4 95 618
46. Witten, Jason DAL TE 47.19 4 89 613
47. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 47.64 8 179 615
48. Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 48.94 16 130 612

49. Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 51.14 10 130 602
50. Brady, Tom NEP QB 51.28 2 112 592
51. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 51.49 2 98 593
52. Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 55.14 15 124 607
53. Brown, Antonio PIT WR 56.13 15 111 608
54. Smith, Torrey BAL WR 56.35 7 114 608
55. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 57.56 13 113 595
56. Ball, Montee DEN RB 57.62 1 158 591
57. Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 58.52 2 149 587
58. Decker, Eric DEN WR 58.58 11 111 597
59. Wallace, Mike MIA WR 60.11 28 106 589
60. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 60.21 6 144 605

61. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 61.14 11 152 593
62. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 61.99 3 197 601
63. Stafford, Matthew DET QB 62.87 9 111 577
64. Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 64.07 1 186 573
65. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 64.88 1 224 592
66. Luck, Andrew IND QB 65.12 1 122 575
67. Vereen, Shane NEP RB 65.60 22 305 590
68. Smith, Steve CAR WR 67.14 10 146 587
69. Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 70.14 10 209 578
70. Austin, Tavon STL WR 70.31 3 120 576
71. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 71.65 33 146 587
72. Jones, James GBP WR

So instead of Peyton Manning you could take Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Luck or Vernon Davis, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, James Jones. I like all of those picks better than trying to cobble together a starting RB there. If I were to take a RB (because awesome WR value fell to me earlier causing me to pass) then RB I would like are Bernard and Lacy who should be busy enough. DeAngelo Williams is a guy I would be willing to consider over those rookies perhaps if I did not think he would fall to round 7-8.

I just would rather not be worrying about RB in these rounds as I think the QB and WR is better there.
 
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zftcg

Footballguy
All this debate over the exact definition of "sleeper" results in people talking past each other. So let's make it more specific: Who could end up being this year's Alfred Morris? Isn't AM the ultimate sleeper? Not "undervalued", not "potential breakout". Here was a guy who wasn't on anyone's radar at the beginning of last year and ended up in the Top 10. Those are the kinds of sleepers who, if they pay off, can win you your league. So who could possibly repeat that?

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
All this debate over the exact definition of "sleeper" results in people talking past each other. So let's make it more specific: Who could end up being this year's Alfred Morris? Isn't AM the ultimate sleeper? Not "undervalued", not "potential breakout". Here was a guy who wasn't on anyone's radar at the beginning of last year and ended up in the Top 10. Those are the kinds of sleepers who, if they pay off, can win you your league. So who could possibly repeat that?
Alf was on people's radar's its just that most people dismissed him because of Shanahanigans. He looked like the clear starter, but no one believed it solely because of Shanahan and he didnt have the pedigree so it was hard to believe as well. There is no one who will repeat that this year, in all likelihood even with injury.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Kenny Powers said:
Biabreakable said:
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?
Peyton Manning. ;)
Fair enough. He might be gone by round 5 anyways. :)

So instead of Peyton Manning you could take Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Luck or Vernon Davis, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, James Jones. I like all of those picks better than trying to cobble together a starting RB there. If I were to take a RB (because awesome WR value fell to me earlier causing me to pass) then RB I would like are Bernard and Lacy who should be busy enough. DeAngelo Williams is a guy I would be willing to consider over those rookies perhaps if I did not think he would fall to round 7-8.

I just would rather not be worrying about RB in these rounds as I think the QB and WR is better there.
I find your response interesting. Yes, I could take a good QB in the 5th or 6th, but I can also take Wilson or Romo likely in the 7th round as well (Im personally targetting Romo. Ive always gone QB late, and thats probably not changing this year). While I like some of the WRs going in the 5th-6th, as I posted earlier there are plenty of good WRs still there in the 7th-8th. Also, what do you mean by those QB/WR picks are better than "trying to cobble together a starting RB there". I clearly said that was my strategy for Lacy/5th and Vereen/6th as RB3 and RB4, respectively. Then you go on to say if you were to take a RB that it would be Lacy (or Bernard), who I already said was the guy I was targetting. So you agree with me, but you dont? Ok.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Kenny Powers said:
Biabreakable said:
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?
I dont understand what you are trying to say with the bolded.

As far as the rest, in my experience, rookies are typically the best values when it comes to RBs. Sure some will disappoint, but their ADPs are typically lower than the probably should be, and when they hit they are homerun picks. As for Vereen, based on the other options for 2013 Pats I have a strong inclination he is in line for a lot of touches this year. Sure, I guess that is "speculative use" as you called it, but he already looks like a big part of their gameplan to me.

 

xenon

Footballguy
SameSongNDance said:
If we're talking deep sleeper, I will continue to do what I do every year, handcuff other peoples RBs who I believe to be injury prone, too old and etc. Opportunity is everything and although some handcuffs will clearly have more upside than others, situation takes precedence. This line of play has served me well in the past.
SameSongNDance said:
If we're talking deep sleeper, I will continue to do what I do every year, handcuff other peoples RBs who I believe to be injury prone, too old and etc. Opportunity is everything and although some handcuffs will clearly have more upside than others, situation takes precedence. This line of play has served me well in the past.
I've utilized this strategy in the past and it can work.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Kenny Powers said:
Biabreakable said:
I think there is more value at other positions than RB in the 5th 6th rounds. I think many other people see it that way too. So loading up on rb early and drafting QB/WR in the later rounds seems like a better way to avoid these landmine type picks.
Lacy in the 5th and Vereen in the 6th are landmine picks? Especially as RB3 and RB4 as I said? I hope other people think value is elsewhere in those rounds because that will make it easier to scoop them up.

Id much rather secure my RB depth at that point (and I can actually start both every week as my leagues use 2 flexes) then use my picks the next few rounds getting those RBs I have far less belief in, and many of which are in complere RBBCs. The fact that I can get a Hilton or Miles Austin in the 7th, a Gordon/Boldin/Britt/MWilliams in the 8th, and so forth tells me there is plenty of productive WRs I can get later. RBs, not so much.
Rookie RB and a back up RB with speculative use in his offense may not be land mines but they are not sure things either. You could be taking players like Payton Manning and other much more safe and valuable picks in round 5/6 than these RB.

Where do you think you are pulling ahead from the competition in the 1st 4 rounds by passing on RB that cannot be made up in the 5th 6th?
I dont understand what you are trying to say with the bolded.

As far as the rest, in my experience, rookies are typically the best values when it comes to RBs. Sure some will disappoint, but their ADPs are typically lower than the probably should be, and when they hit they are homerun picks. As for Vereen, based on the other options for 2013 Pats I have a strong inclination he is in line for a lot of touches this year. Sure, I guess that is "speculative use" as you called it, but he already looks like a big part of their gameplan to me.
What players are you drafting in the 1st through 4 rounds that causes you to target RB in round 5-6 is what I mean by that.

If this is a RB3 and 4 you are taking that can be fine. I was more coming from the place of if you had passed on RB in the early rounds to take QB, TE or multiple WR as some have talked about doing. Then if you were planning on a RB from the 5th-6th to be your RB2 I think that the value does not meet that risk. But I guess that is not your plan.

To get a RB3 you are going to want to do it this soon I agree because they will all dry up by around round 8 for the most part.

My comments more about the overall landscape where the value picks seem better at other positions than RB in round 5-6. I would much rather have Tom Brady than Romo.

The reason I call Shane Vereen a speculative play is because I do not think anyone knows how targets for the Patriots will be split right now. I have read some interesting things about what Vereen's role might be with Hernandez gone and I think that is very possible he could get some of that as well as replacing Woodhead.

Personally I do not like relying on high volume receptions for the value of my RB. That can quickly turn south on you if they do not get the targets. There are many possible scenario's for how targets get distributed in their offense. I think basing that role off of pre season and other research is speculative, as are all projections, but we have not seen that happen in the regular season yet. So it is more speculative than it is to consider Brady in the same round, who has much longer track record of being good. So while still speculative, much less so.

Mostly I am trying to avoid risks. It is still early in the draft. I would like to be picking more sure things if they are still available.

 
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