LaDainian Tomlinson: 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Tanner9919]

The other thing to keep in mind, which was alluded to, is LT's work ethic and hunger to be the best. I'm sure he is jonesing to break Emmitt's rushing yardage record.

Meh, I'm not so sure this plays heavily into my thinking. Sports cliches have been around for 40-50 years, and they've said the same thing about thousands of different athletes. Not one has been able to carry LT's production into their 30s.Off the top of my head, I can think of one exception, and he had far fewer touches going into his late 20's/early 30's than LT. Maybe I'm missing someone.And even this guy had a dropoff after he hit 30, and he never produced at LT/SA/PH/Emmitt's numbers.

C-Mart was very good, even after the age of 29..

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I think LT has 2 great years left in him.

Why? I want someone to prove me wrong

You're going to have to wait for LT to do that. So be patient.

 

[cstu]

I'm the kind of guy who bets with a streak rather than against it. There has been at least 1 thread predicting Tomlinsons's downfall for each of the past 5 seasons or so.

Really? There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall when he was 24 years old? Was old man age finally catching up to him then?There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall last year. Maybe one or two whackos the year before, but that's pretty much it. Remember, he's been a consensus top-3 draft pick for years now.

Every single year.I know you want it to happen but the truth is you probably have to deal with him for 3-4 more years.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm the kind of guy who bets with a streak rather than against it. There has been at least 1 thread predicting Tomlinsons's downfall for each of the past 5 seasons or so.

Really? There were threads predicting Tomlinson's downfall when he was 24 years old?

Yes, actually. When he was 24 he was coming off a season in which he had 451 touches. A lot of people were predicting a huge drop-off or major injury after that. (Instead, he went on to have his best year, gaining 2370 yards from scrimmage.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't mean to be rude, but I'm really interested in a statistical/historical argument here.

I don't think there's any such thing. Or rather, there are too many of them. You could say that the great majority of U.S. citizens who are 29 years old don't even make an NFL roster, so therefore LT is unlikely to make an NFL roster. But the problem is that the level of generality is too great. LT is not the great majority of U.S. citizens. Neither is he the great majority of NFL RBs, or even superstar NFL RBs.You could also say that, historically speaking, the great majority of NFL RBs who are completely awesome in Year N are a good bet to be excellent in Year N+1 as well. Tomlinson was the #1 fantasy RB this year, so the statistical/historical argument is that he'll be excellent next year.

The problem is that any category you put LT into -- 29-year-old US citizens, or NFL RBs coming off an awesome year, or anything else -- will either be too large to be helpful (including lots of people who aren't comparable to LT) or will be too small to have a sufficient sample size to draw conclusions from.

There is a place for statistical and historical arguments in fantasy football analysis, to be sure, but not everyplace. Sometimes just watching a guy perform and getting a feel for his physical abilities and football skills means a lot more than looking at stats from other players. Trying to predict LT's immediate future fits into that category, IMO.

 

[Tom Baker]

Is this the year he regresses back to the mean?

 

[Crippler]

Watch the Chargers and count the number of times he actually gets hit hard. He'll go out of bounds whenever possible and if he knows he's going to get hit he'll go out to avoid it. Some may think that's a negative but he has avoided a lot of hard hits in his career by playing smart. Like any RB he could have a major injury but I don't think age and carries is as big of a concern for him as it is for RB's with a different running style.

Here is the correct answer. As an owner of LT in the only league I am now in, he hit the jackpot with this statement. It can be frustrating watching at times because you want those extra yards but he does not take alot of punishment. This will extend his career. Reading this post and a few things stand out

1. Lots of RB's have performed very well from 29-31 in the stud status. The numbers dont lie for Cumar, Emmitt, Sanders, and Payton and whoever else he gets compared too.

2. Chargers are a team that is not in decline but on the upswing as an elite team. It will only get better. And if I remember right, most of these players are under contract for a while. Add in the great D they also have. Chambers was another big addition that helps LT to maintain elite status. Perfect situation to keep on succeeding

3. LT is maybe the best RB of all time to this point in his career and must be factored in to the equation

4. One big plus for him to the other greats is the pass catching abilities that lead to him staying at the top. This is such a huge plus for extra yardage and TD's and in PPR is gold.

I personally dont see a drop off. If I was not a contender, than yes, I would look to trade him. I think his style will lead to as long as a career as Jackson in the end. If I am a contender, than I think your taking a great risk to trade him for anyone right now including Adrian. I know if mid-season, if I thought about this move, I would have missed out on a SB win. In my only league, I have won 5 championships in LT tenor since he dropped into my lap as the 3rd overall rookie pick. You take the risk of losing championships if you decide to deal him. Who cares if you only great 2 more great seasons. in my 16 team league, I look at that I should win a championship once every 16 years. A chance for another next year would make not needing one for another 31 years to break even. I dont think Peterson will help you to the big one like LT will in the next 2 years. Beyond this. Yes. But than owners will be also wanting to dump Peterson for the next young stud to come along. Would take more than any of the RB's out there to get him. The plus becomes more as you go along. And if the right price is not coming along now(if you decide to deal) than wait till during the season next year when he is lighting it up again. I know Jackson got traded this year for what ended up being the 2/6/12 picks in the draft plus Meachum, and Demitruis Williams. If your rebuilding, this is the type of deal it would take to get LT. Trading him for any other RB not named Peterson, I think would just be a move to do the next move in the end

 

[Val Rannous]

I can't decide if this is the year to trade LT or not. He is getting up in age, but I'm starting to buy into the theory that you can see the downgrade occur by watching a RB's reception numbers, and it looks like LT has not started to dip yet.

I do have a wild scheme in my keeper league to trade LT for the rights to keep Jones-Drew and the overall #1 next year to pick McFadden, but I'm still waffleing on if I should make that offer.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Watch the Chargers and count the number of times he actually gets hit hard. He'll go out of bounds whenever possible and if he knows he's going to get hit he'll go out to avoid it. Some may think that's a negative but he has avoided a lot of hard hits in his career by playing smart. Like any RB he could have a major injury but I don't think age and carries is as big of a concern for him as it is for RB's with a different running style.

Here is the correct answer. As an owner of LT in the only league I am now in, he hit the jackpot with this statement. It can be frustrating watching at times because you want those extra yards but he does not take alot of punishment. This will extend his career. Reading this post and a few things stand out

1. Lots of RB's have performed very well from 29-31 in the stud status. The numbers dont lie for Cumar, Emmitt, Sanders, and Payton and whoever else he gets compared too.

2. Chargers are a team that is not in decline but on the upswing as an elite team. It will only get better. And if I remember right, most of these players are under contract for a while. Add in the great D they also have. Chambers was another big addition that helps LT to maintain elite status. Perfect situation to keep on succeeding

3. LT is maybe the best RB of all time to this point in his career and must be factored in to the equation

4. One big plus for him to the other greats is the pass catching abilities that lead to him staying at the top. This is such a huge plus for extra yardage and TD's and in PPR is gold.

I personally dont see a drop off. If I was not a contender, than yes, I would look to trade him. I think his style will lead to as long as a career as Jackson in the end. If I am a contender, than I think your taking a great risk to trade him for anyone right now including Adrian. I know if mid-season, if I thought about this move, I would have missed out on a SB win. In my only league, I have won 5 championships in LT tenor since he dropped into my lap as the 3rd overall rookie pick. You take the risk of losing championships if you decide to deal him. Who cares if you only great 2 more great seasons. in my 16 team league, I look at that I should win a championship once every 16 years. A chance for another next year would make not needing one for another 31 years to break even. I dont think Peterson will help you to the big one like LT will in the next 2 years. Beyond this. Yes. But than owners will be also wanting to dump Peterson for the next young stud to come along. Would take more than any of the RB's out there to get him. The plus becomes more as you go along. And if the right price is not coming along now(if you decide to deal) than wait till during the season next year when he is lighting it up again. I know Jackson got traded this year for what ended up being the 2/6/12 picks in the draft plus Meachum, and Demitruis Williams. If your rebuilding, this is the type of deal it would take to get LT. Trading him for any other RB not named Peterson, I think would just be a move to do the next move in the end

These are the same thoughts I have.He tends to cut more and not use power unless he absolutely has to.

The opposite type runners are S Jax and Peterson who run more upright and take people straight on. These are the guys I worry about injury-wise.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Last offseason was the time to trade him coming off his career year. But if i held him, I'd definitely look to move him this offseason if the deal was right. He'll be 29 next season. He might not show a decline yet but his perceived value will fall through the floor when he turns 30. He came back to the pack this year and i expect similar numbers for the next couple years, but if i could get two younger studs for him, I'd pull the trigger. The dropoff usually isn't gradual and you often don;t see it coming.

 

[switz]

Tomlinson now has 2806 touches for his career. This is 416 more touches than Shaun Alexander has, and 687 more than Priest Holmes ever had.Yes, LT again was the #1 FF running back, but it wasn't by a large margin, and he will be 29 in June.In dynasty, I think it's absolutely the time to start trading him. You can probably get full value for him, with most likely (at best) one more great year left in his career. I'm not so sure he has even that left. Yes, his running style sometimes allows him to avoid the big hits, but when you carry the ball that much, and you're approaching 30, it does start to scare me a bit.If you don't think this is the time to trade him, why not, and at what point do you start shopping him? Also, what constitutes "full value" for you at this point?

People have been saying this for the past two years... eventually you'll get it right

 

[Biabreakable]

This is probably a different thread entirely, but why do people ask for so much more in trade for a player than they would in order to get the player? Seems the two should be pretty balanced.

Because only a schmuck would take exactly what he'd give. Think about it, it just doesn't make sense to make a trade when you would do the exact same trade in reverse.

I guess I'm a schmuck then. :shrugs:

 

[BringItOn]

As an LT2 owner in a dynasty league, I would certainly consider dealing him. I tend to build my teams through continually going young each year at one position. It was first, Brought in AJ to eventually be #1 over Moss, now looking at ADP to replace LT2. I never "blow it up" entirely. One piece at a time while continually keeping a solid core of top players. I really depends on the makeup of your team if you are able to to this or not..

having Ronnie Brown go down really put a wrinkle in things for me, as I almost had a deal involving Brown +Portis for ADP + others. Now, after seeing ADP perform, I would in fact consider moving LT2 in a deal for ADP. If you have enough depth on your team, anything is possible.. even if you need to over-pay a bit now for that Top-tier Elite player. your team is better off in the long run to maintain that balance.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Last offseason was the time to trade him coming off his career year. But if i held him, I'd definitely look to move him this offseason if the deal was right. He'll be 29 next season. He might not show a decline yet but his perceived value will fall through the floor when he turns 30. He came back to the pack this year and i expect similar numbers for the next couple years, but if i could get two younger studs for him, I'd pull the trigger. The dropoff usually isn't gradual and you often don;t see it coming.

back to the pack?He was the #1 RB in every league I played in. . Only westbrook was even close to himLt is an elite talent and should maintain this level for 3 more seasons. Then a steady decline.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Should be interesting to hear new responses.