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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Evil G
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think you mean Nick. His brother Zach is on Dallas. Anyone know what kind of depth they have behind him?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Sounds like they should check down to their RB more as Os will have little time to throw
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but I also would like my 1st round pick RB to be able to rush for more than 3.8 ypc like Texans backs did last year. Especially when the knock on the RB is he's never amassed much volume.
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TartanLion
Footballguy
Damn. Definitely muddies my mind a little bit
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Same, I'm not downgrading him for this. Just something to keep in mind when you might be deciding between him and a WR.
I feel a little sick, because yesterday I had the option to choose between him and another elite back... we'll initial him "T.G." and picked Miller because of the PPR potential.
Oh well, I still think he'll be a solid and safe back this year. It's hard to find those.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think its anything to feel sick over. The LT and RT aren't out for the year or anything. They should cumulatively miss 1 or 2 games tops. Sucks losing the C, but he was a rookie so who knows what he would have provided. Miller is still a high floor and high ceiling player in all formats.
jimitshah85
Footballguy
Lol Brown is will be on PUP and Martin out.. def lowers his value..
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
Traded for Miller in one of my leagues and the injuries to the line are getting me a little concerned. I watched the Texans game this weekend and they weren't opening any holes for him (granted, he only got 4 carries).
Buzzbait
Footballguy
Love Miller's potential. The recent injuries certainly are cause for concern but Brown and Newton aren't expected to be out long. The line in Houston should be better than what Miller had in Miami where he averaged 4.5 and 5.1 the last two years. The question is since Miami never fully utilized him to potential will he be able to carry the weight being a bell cow the entire season?
In standard scoring (no PPR) not sure exactly where to put him in that second tier of RBs with Bell (clearly better player and situation but out 3 games), Charles (coming off injury, will be 30 yo and two capable backups in West and Ware) and Freeman (nose dive second half of the year and Coleman looming as an option).
In standard scoring (no PPR) not sure exactly where to put him in that second tier of RBs with Bell (clearly better player and situation but out 3 games), Charles (coming off injury, will be 30 yo and two capable backups in West and Ware) and Freeman (nose dive second half of the year and Coleman looming as an option).
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
On the latest Audible podcast they talked about Miller and Waldman wasn't to concerned about the line issue as backups tend to be okay in run blocking but typically struggle in pass blocking. Also Miller has a history of performing under crappy situations.
The whole concern about a heavy work load cracks me up though. I want my RB's to get as many carries as possible. If they get hurt on the 200th carry I would rather that it came after averaging 24 carries a game rather than week 15. Think of it another way, if the coach told you today that they were going to have Miller carry the ball 25 times ever week and give him 4 targets a week would you not draft him as the #1 overall pick.
The whole concern about a heavy work load cracks me up though. I want my RB's to get as many carries as possible. If they get hurt on the 200th carry I would rather that it came after averaging 24 carries a game rather than week 15. Think of it another way, if the coach told you today that they were going to have Miller carry the ball 25 times ever week and give him 4 targets a week would you not draft him as the #1 overall pick.
timbrah_ho
Footballguy
^this.
First people are complaining about not enough usage and now they're worried about too much...and the guy was money when they actually gave him the ball last year. Houston has a history of running their RB into the ground and we should expect similar usage here. Hopefully he doesn't break down but in the meantime it's RB1 numbers guaranteed, esp given that he's the type of RB you'd want to have with a bad Oline. Shifty, good vision, creates, etc.
First people are complaining about not enough usage and now they're worried about too much...and the guy was money when they actually gave him the ball last year. Houston has a history of running their RB into the ground and we should expect similar usage here. Hopefully he doesn't break down but in the meantime it's RB1 numbers guaranteed, esp given that he's the type of RB you'd want to have with a bad Oline. Shifty, good vision, creates, etc.
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Dismattle
Footballguy
Yeah I could see Ervin getting play to rest Millertime
But I dont think an injury would help more than it hurts
While the 39" vert is beyond impressive, I think its just not enough
Im pretty sure at sub 200, Ervin lacks the punch needed
Blue would need to take over a majority of the load if we were to see an injury
But yeah, if them DB's think they have adjusted to Millers speed? Ervin could do some damage on a few plays
Have you heard some advise to roster for taking over the lead back role?
New, relatively unproven QB, bottom-tier offensive line, new RB that has never played with said offensive line, tough schedule. I'm not drinking the kool-aid on Miller this year.
There is a reason teams don't use players like Miller as feature players. If he could have handled that workload he would have been given it, imo. Nobody is limiting Peterson, Gurley, or other elite talents because of scheme. While he is likely to put up some highlight reel plays I think he's going to be the biggest first round bust this year.
I'm betting that whole offensive takes a step back while they gel this year then are under-drafted next year when they explode. People are expecting too much with entirely new players coming together. NFL offenses need to have perfect timing to execute at a high level. With new pieces everywhere you can't just plug and play greatness with mediocre talents.
There is a reason teams don't use players like Miller as feature players. If he could have handled that workload he would have been given it, imo. Nobody is limiting Peterson, Gurley, or other elite talents because of scheme. While he is likely to put up some highlight reel plays I think he's going to be the biggest first round bust this year.
I'm betting that whole offensive takes a step back while they gel this year then are under-drafted next year when they explode. People are expecting too much with entirely new players coming together. NFL offenses need to have perfect timing to execute at a high level. With new pieces everywhere you can't just plug and play greatness with mediocre talents.
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VaTerp
Footballguy
Lamont Jordan, Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis (in CLE), Michael Turner, Thomas Jones (CHI and NYJ), Peyton Hillis, Alfred Morris, and others have all had top 10ish seasons in their first year on new teams with situations that many considered worse than Miller's headed into the season.
Your reasoning has some logic to it (though I completely disagree with the "if he could have handled the workload he woud have been given it" angle) but in the NFL, teams can unexpectedly put things together and play very well, and more importantly produce top FF RBs even if the team doesnt play well, in situations similar or worse to what Miller has in Houston this year.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have heard that Sullivan was not playing as well during training camp as he was prior to the injury. The source reporting this is very suspect imo though so not sure if that is true or not.
Back injuries can be really difficult to come back from, so maybe its true.
eta- more recently it was reported by Vensell of the Star-Tribune that the Vikings releasing Sullivan was in part to make room for the Bradford trade. Not sure if there is any truth in that either. Just passing along.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Nice post.
Several of the examples that you cite did have good offensive lines at the time they added the new RB however.
I don't follow the Texans very closely, so I am not sure what their offensive line quality or lack thereof may be at this time.
I didn't think very highly of Miller early on in his career, however he changed my mind with how he has been playing the last couple of seasons. One of the better all around RB in the league based on that.
Listening to coach Adam Gase talk about listening to their sports science people and trainers, I got the impression that coaches listen to these parts of their staff more than I realized. Maybe this is not the same for all coaches and all teams, but Gase seemed to be giving them a lot of consideration in his decision making process, based on his comments. This does make me wonder if there is something we do not know in regards to Miller, as part of the reason why he seemed to always be on a limited snap count.
What I have read from the Houston coaches in regards to how they will use Miller suggests the opposite. Coaches lie though, so only time will tell I guess.
I honestly don't think you have to go any further than the fact that the last coaching staff were idiots. They did the same thing with previous backs that were performing well (Bush).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Could be. Just something I have been wondering about a bit since Miller went to the Texans.
The Texans may not listen to their sport science guys as much as Gase was giving me the impression that he does.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
This is one of the dumbest things fans say. All NFL coaches have 30+ years of experience at all levels of football. Do you have 30 years experience in anything? Nobody gives these guys enough credit. The worst coaching unit in the NFL is light-years beyond your understanding of A) how an NFL offense works, and B) how to use the players they are given.
Every coach in the league would give their left nut to have an elite workhorse RB that they didn't have to take off the field. Lamar Miller played under two different coaches in the NFL (Philbin and Campbell) and neither used him in that capacity. Obviously, they must have had a pretty good reason not to do so!
When is the last time a committee back from one team went to another team (whom had a mediocre offensive line) and ended up as a consistently successful feature back? Reggie Bush, maybe, but I think he excelled in Miami because he re-dedicated himself to the game and became WORTHY of a feature back role. He played pretty lazy for a lot of years thinking football would be easy because he was the number one pick. I think it was him that changed not just the coaching staff's use. But I'll give you that one. That's one player. Anyone else?
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NFL coaches are notorious for out thinking themselves, so yes, while they do have all that experience and knowledge, they oftentimes do dumb things anyway. How much do those 30+ years of experience help guys who seemingly have never had Clock Management 101? So you can think it's a dumb thing to say, but you would be one of the few.
Reggie Bush is the perfect example. He was very successful in Miami when given opportunity. Did they use him as a workhorse back? He would be performing well and they would stop giving him the ball. Just like Miller the past couple of seasons. You can make excuses as much as you want but it's highly questionable coaching. In my opinion, that will be evident in Houston this year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I may soften my stance a bit on him looking at the projections again. If he's used more like Bush where he only gets ~220 carries and ~40 receptions then he's still worth a top 5 pick. I didn't realize that. But there's no way he's going to get Peterson/Gurley-level touches (300-350). Despite that though, he's still worth a fringe first round pick given the receptions.
gianmarco
Footballguy
How can you say that so confidently?
-- He had 240-250 touches the last 2 years in Miami, a team that was dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts at 21.5/game and he's going to Houston that was 5th in the NFL last year in rushing attempts at almost 30/game.
-- He has virtually nobody behind him to threaten touches. Tyler Ervin, a 192 lb late 4th round draft pick is his backup. Miller will get early down work, 3rd down passing work, AND goal line work.
-- Miller is 5'10, 225 lbs. He is built to handle that kind of workload at the NFL level at his size. In games last year where he had 14+ carries, he had 103 carries for 535 yards (5.2 ypc).
-- I would argue that his FLOOR is 250 touches and that I'd be surprised if he isn't close to 300. 350 is a stretch, but 250 carries, or just over 15 carries/game and 50 receptions is not only reasonable but almost expected given the team history, situation, and fact that they brought him in to be the guy.
Because Osweiler is an unproven QB and I would not be shocked if they were trailing 65% of the game time this year. That doesn't leave a lot of time to run the ball. In addition, Houston's strength of schedule is one of the worst for running backs. They swapped the AFC north for the AFC west which almost doubles the difficulty those games.
I remain steadfast that if Miller was built to handle that workload he would have done so already. He played under two different coaching trees in Miami and neither saw fit to give him that workload. In fact, they liked him so much, they LET HIM LEAVE IN FREE AGENCY for what was not even a top 5 running back contract. You think Peterson or Gurley would leave their teams for $6M/year? Lol, no way. Even Doug Martin, whom doesn't even catch the ball, got more money than that. Way too many red flags and wishy-projections for me to drop a first round pick on him. I think Lacy has a better fantasy year than Miller and he'll do it with fewer touches. Or at the very least, Lacy with a few less points is a way better value with way less risk and you're getting him 15 picks later.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Osweiler is unproven, but I doubt he is any worse than Hoyer and he kept them in enough games to get to the playoffs, and their defense is good enough to keep them in most games. Plus he is going to be their 3 down back. He will be in those games getting the check downs even if they are down 14 going into the 4th. The strength of schedule thing is over blown, too much changes year to year and too many injuries happen during the year, it is really a week to week thing. You don't have to be Peterson or Gurley to put up great fantasy numbers. Players leave in free agency all the time, and comparing it to what other teams do is futile, each team runs their organization differently.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Has Miller ever been given a large workload across a few games and quickly got nicked up ? Has he ever been given a large workload in even a single game and got injured, or crumbled under the amount of touches ? I'm not denying you your opinion, but is there any logical thought or empirical evidence to back up a strong viewpoint on this aside from the fact that a poor coaching team never truly gave him a chance to run the rock a lot across a stretch of games ? His injury history does contain a few minor issues cropping up on reports from time to time, but nothing beyond that. I'd be open to that argument if there was say, a 3-5 game spell where Miller had been given the rock 20+ times and his body had started to fail on him.
I'm left asking myself was Philbin either A) extremely astute and clever enough to notice some small signs that Miller would be rendered useless/injured if he was ever given a chunky workload across some games/a season or B) in the midst of a making a complete #### up of his head coaching gig ? B) seems more likely to me personally, and the Dolphins as a whole don't seem to be well run.
Will be interesting this season.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I was just about to post the same thing. Using Osweiler as a reason why Miller won't touch the ball that much is ridiculous. Houston has been top 5 the last 2 yrs in terms of rushing attempts/game with Hoyer leading the charge last year and FItzpatrick the year before. Last year they were 29th in YPA passing at 6.6. The year before at 7.1 Osweiler would have to be epically bad to be much worse than that as to have an impact. He was already better than that last year with Denver on almost 300 pass attempts. And, as also mentioned, he will get plenty of dumpoffs if they fall behind as well.
As for Miami, they haven't been over .500 since 2008. 2008. They have been one of the most inept organizations over the last decade. And Philbin, who is currently an offensive line coach for Indy, was his head coach for 3+ of Lamar's 4 yrs in the NFL so far. He was considered an awful coach almost universally.
Reaction about the end of Philbin's tenure was met favorably by most fans and media alike, as Philbin's penchant for poor game management, play-calling, and timeout usage cost the Dolphins many games
I wouldn't use his usage of Miller as any kind of testament to whether or not Miller can handle a larger workload. He was a joke as an NFL head coach.
cstu
Footballguy
You're right - there's no reason why he shouldn't get at least 250 carries in this offense. That's a only 15% increase in carries from 2014.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Oh, and Lamar Miller is the 6th highest paid RB in the NFL per year.
You make it sound as if he left for peanuts and nobody wanted him. He was one of the first guys signed and there was significant interest when he hit the market and got paid accordingly. So you think Houston agreed to pay him like a top 6 NFL RB and don't plan to use him? Come on.
You make it sound as if he left for peanuts and nobody wanted him. He was one of the first guys signed and there was significant interest when he hit the market and got paid accordingly. So you think Houston agreed to pay him like a top 6 NFL RB and don't plan to use him? Come on.
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timbrah_ho
Footballguy
I owned Miller all of last year so I watched him plenty and was frustrated by his usage the entire way. When he was actually given the chance to run he looked as explosive as any top tier RB in the league.
Both sides of the argument bring up good points here. Houston's schedule vs strong D's against the run is my biggest concern on the negative side. However in PPR leagues his patch catching ability more than makes up for those concerns in my book.
We can pick this to death but what I saw last year was a PPR beast running back just waiting to break out, stuck in an absolutely horrid situation. He passes the eye test despite the potential risks in his current situation.
Both sides of the argument bring up good points here. Houston's schedule vs strong D's against the run is my biggest concern on the negative side. However in PPR leagues his patch catching ability more than makes up for those concerns in my book.
We can pick this to death but what I saw last year was a PPR beast running back just waiting to break out, stuck in an absolutely horrid situation. He passes the eye test despite the potential risks in his current situation.
cstu
Footballguy
They are clearly expecting a high level of production, but as you see on that list so did the Bills with McCoy.
GregR
Footballguy
This is one of the dumbest things fans say. All NFL coaches have 30+ years of experience at all levels of football. Do you have 30 years experience in anything? Nobody gives these guys enough credit. The worst coaching unit in the NFL is light-years beyond your understanding of A) how an NFL offense works, and B)
Every coach in the league would give their left nut to have a
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Dismattle
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Well not sure but looking at the splits IIRC Lamar has sub 3.7 ypc vs Indy and Jax in 6 or so games.
GregR
Footballguy
On a more serious note, his effectiveness maybe being impacted by putting on weight to combat the "not a workhorse" thing is a bigger worry to me than was whether he could handle more touches at his previous weight.
Though I'm looking at it more from an NFL standpoint as a Texans fan, than a fantasy standpoint. Fantasy, enough extra touches at a lower ypc still comes out ahead.
Though I'm looking at it more from an NFL standpoint as a Texans fan, than a fantasy standpoint. Fantasy, enough extra touches at a lower ypc still comes out ahead.
gianmarco
Footballguy
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