Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (3 Viewers)

[32 Counter Pass]

I can see both sides of this discussion. He has been been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, but that could be due to surrounding talent. I am growing tired of hearing this excuse, but Miller is a hold for me because I think his potential out weighs his perceived value at the moment. 

 

[Faust]

Lamar Miller said he feels good about his health.

"I feel good," said Miller. "I was just taking care of my body, rehabbing and getting back on track. Right now, my body feels good." Miller hadn't missed a game in four years before an ankle injury sidelined him for the final two games of the 2016 regular season. His 268 carries last season were easily a career-high and coach Bill O'Brien admitted to putting too much on Miller's plate early in the year. With third-round rookie D'Onta Foreman expected to play a change-of-pace role, Miller's workload won't be quite what it was last season and maybe that's for the better.

Source: Houston Chronicle

 

[Faust]

Texans' Lamar Miller not concerned about same heavy workload in 2017

 

[kface]

Texans' Lamar Miller not concerned about same heavy workload in 2017

He doesn't have to use that much energy running 3 yards and falling down thankfully

 

[Aznflyer14]

I'm curious on everyone's inputs and honest assessment / opinion on Lamar Miller this year.  Will he exceed the number of touches last year?  Will he also exhibit of his continued inability to carry a heavy load of carries toward end of season?  I'm trying to decide whether to keep him or trade him away for Demarco Murray. 

 

[kface]

I'm curious on everyone's inputs and honest assessment / opinion on Lamar Miller this year.  Will he exceed the number of touches last year?  Will he also exhibit of his continued inability to carry a heavy load of carries toward end of season?  I'm trying to decide whether to keep him or trade him away for Demarco Murray. 

My honest assessment is I don't know.  I have asked myself that exact question every single year he has been in the league and everytime i think 'things will improve'.  They don't however if history is any lesson

 

[Interseptopus]

My honest assessment is I don't know.  I have asked myself that exact question every single year he has been in the league and everytime i think 'things will improve'.  They don't however if history is any lesson

I'm with him.

I have been a big fan of Miller's. I almost kept for a 1st round draft pick last year and was glad I did not. However, he is very consistent. He almost always gets 80 yards and you have a 35% chance of him scoring. 

To be fair, he had a career high for touches last year and had a pretty horrid situation at QB. Things can only get better right? 

Given his history, I will take a random prediction of:

250 attempts, 1075 yards, 6 TDs
35 receptions 252 yards, 1 TD
 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

My initial projections have him at 216 attempts 4.7 avg 1,026 yds 7 tds; 42 rec 291 yds 1 Td

I may be a little optimistic on his ypc and targets but I believe the Texans oline will be better this year. (Martin will return from injury and Quessenberry has recovered from cancer.) I also believe that Miller is the second best target on the offense at this point, thus my optimistic projection for receptions. 

I think the issue with Miller has always been expectations. I see him as a mid tier RB2 with a high end RB2 ceiling. If you draft him with higher expectations you will likely be disappointed. 

 

[kface]

My initial projections have him at 216 attempts 4.7 avg 1,026 yds 7 tds; 42 rec 291 yds 1 Td

I may be a little optimistic on his ypc and targets but I believe the Texans oline will be better this year. (Martin will return from injury and Quessenberry has recovered from cancer.) I also believe that Miller is the second best target on the offense at this point, thus my optimistic projection for receptions. 

I think the issue with Miller has always been expectations. I see him as a mid tier RB2 with a high end RB2 ceiling. If you draft him with higher expectations you will likely be disappointed. 

I agree.  I think it is mostly expectations and if you consider him in the middle of RB2 i think that is where he fits.  He's going to have many games where he has 60 yards combined and no tds if history is any indication.  I always though he looked talented, thus why he is on my team every year.  Last year I thought I had the steal of the draft and by week 6 wasn't even starting him.  

 

[dmac37]

I'm with him.

I have been a big fan of Miller's. I almost kept for a 1st round draft pick last year and was glad I did not. However, he is very consistent. He almost always gets 80 yards and you have a 35% chance of him scoring. 

To be fair, he had a career high for touches last year and had a pretty horrid situation at QB. Things can only get better right? 

Given his history, I will take a random prediction of:

250 attempts, 1075 yards, 6 TDs
35 receptions 252 yards, 1 TD
 

He has been consistent but I think that ship is about to sail. He was volume dependent last year and did not show enough to sustain that kind of volume IMO.  Foreman may cut into his workload sooner rather than later......

 

[Interseptopus]

He has been consistent but I think that ship is about to sail. He was volume dependent last year and did not show enough to sustain that kind of volume IMO.  Foreman may cut into his workload sooner rather than later......

I agree completely. My expectations of Miller are very tepid. My opinion on Foreman is not very positive either, but I'm wrong often enough I could very well be on him too. Younger legs sometimes are all you need. 

Miller was very volume dependent last year, but overall kind of underwhelmed given that volume. With a decent player waiting in the wings, Miller could see some volume drop. He could be a very good RB2, but could also be a top candidate for a bust pick and be nothing more than a RB3/flex rotation. Not sure what I think about him but I'm probably avoiding and letting someone else over-draft him. 

In my keeper league, chances are he falls to me at 1.12/2.1. I'm likely keeping Ajayi for a cheap draft pick. Miller/Ajayi leaves a lot to be desired. To put it into perspective, I'd draft Gurley, Crowell, McCaffery, Fournette over Miller. 

 

[Saboo]

Miller is a slightly above avg running back who was hyped up last year due to potential of his situation. I think he has the potential to be a bit better this year with a new qb (although that qb is a rookie that could go either way) but I don’t think he will ever be an elite option. At the same time he could be a good value if you draft him in the right spot.

 

[jtd13]

I think Miller is going to concede some touches to Foreman, and his workload will be a lot more like it was in Miami in 2014-2015 than 2016 Houston that probably suits his skillset better, and he should be a fine RB2 for fantasy. I just don't think he is the 3 down RB1 people thought he could be last year.

 

[cloppbeast]

I think Miller is going to concede some touches to Foreman, and his workload will be a lot more like it was in Miami in 2014-2015 than 2016 Houston that probably suits his skillset better, and he should be a fine RB2 for fantasy. I just don't think he is the 3 down RB1 people thought he could be last year.

I tend to agree with you in the name of being conservative, but I hold a little hope he can live up to those every down back expectations. Everybody sucked for the Texans in a year to forget for their offense. To Miller's benefit, they didn't invest much in RB. I'd say he's in line for similar work more catches less carries. Chance he might give up some totes to the big fat RB the Texans just took; but 35 targets is a really low for his skillset. I trust O'Brien to increase his role in the passing game.

Miller has some excellent upside if his efficiency can return back to its normal Miami days, maintaining last year's workload. Not far-fetched assuming the offense can start to click.

 

[kface]

I tend to agree with you in the name of being conservative, but I hold a little hope he can live up to those every down back expectations. Everybody sucked for the Texans in a year to forget for their offense. To Miller's benefit, they didn't invest much in RB. I'd say he's in line for similar work more catches less carries. Chance he might give up some totes to the big fat RB the Texans just took; but 35 targets is a really low for his skillset. I trust O'Brien to increase his role in the passing game.

Miller has some excellent upside if his efficiency can return back to its normal Miami days, maintaining last year's workload. Not far-fetched assuming the offense can start to click.

The problem with Miller is that if Foreman steals the bulk of the touchdowns, Miller becomes irrelevant from a fantasy perspective with a lighter workload.  

 

[kface]

Lighter workload?

Everything I have read, including from the team itself, suggests this year Miller is going back to his miami days for workload i.e. 12 carries, 3 catches etc...

http://www.sportsmedia101.com/miamidolphins/2017/03/03/heard-this-before-workload-for-ex-miami-dolphins-rb-lamar-miller-to-get-lighter/

http://playerpop.com/mention/277536/bill-obrien-wants-to-cut-down-lamar-millers-workload/

If that is the cases he will need tds to be fantasy relevant but there is a good chance that Foreman poaches those tds

 

[Slider]

Foreman is mediocre at best. I think Miller will finish above expectations. If they get some solid QB play he may finish top 7.

 

[kface]

Foreman is mediocre at best. I think Miller will finish above expectations. If they get some solid QB play he may finish top 7.

I don't think Foreman is all that great either but he is a really big, explosive back which says 'td vulture' to me.

 

[mcd]

Everything I have read, including from the team itself, suggests this year Miller is going back to his miami days for workload i.e. 12 carries, 3 catches etc...

http://www.sportsmedia101.com/miamidolphins/2017/03/03/heard-this-before-workload-for-ex-miami-dolphins-rb-lamar-miller-to-get-lighter/

http://playerpop.com/mention/277536/bill-obrien-wants-to-cut-down-lamar-millers-workload/

If that is the cases he will need tds to be fantasy relevant but there is a good chance that Foreman poaches those tds

Every time I have heard this mentioned by the team, it is in reference to his 28 touches per game over the 1st 3 weeks of last season. Clicking on your link, it mentions that specific time period. Big difference between 28 touches and 15. I would expect it to be somewhere around 20.

That said, I also have concern that Foreman could vulture his TDs.

 

[kface]

Every time I have heard this mentioned by the team, it is in reference to his 28 touches per game over the 1st 3 weeks of last season. Clicking on your link, it mentions that specific time period. Big difference between 28 touches and 15. I would expect it to be somewhere around 20.

That said, I also have concern that Foreman could vulture his TDs.

No doubt, that is mostly extrapolation from analysts that Miller seems to perform better when he is in the 12-15 touches per game.  It might be higher for sure...we will see

 

[omahawildcat25]

Obviously this guy sucks as there hasn't been a post in this thread since July. 

Why is the guy ranked by Trembley as the #12 RB for week 3? He has been horrid and Foreman is taking touches. Is New englands run defense that bad or is he just still overhyped?

 

[Weebs210]

Obviously this guy sucks as there hasn't been a post in this thread since July. 

Why is the guy ranked by Trembley as the #12 RB for week 3? He has been horrid and Foreman is taking touches. Is New englands run defense that bad or is he just still overhyped?

Probably check downs in garbage time.

 

[SCT]

He gets 20+ touches.  Foreman gets touches but there's plenty to go around and it's still a 2-1 series rotation.  Also, they should be down a lot and Foreman isn't the pass catcher.  I could see Tyler Ervin getting a lot of that action though.

 

[lod001]

He runs looking for a place to fall down. Can't break tackles to save his life and one his best traits: catching the football, is not an O'Brien play because O'Brien is an idiot.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

He runs looking for a place to fall down. Can't break tackles to save his life and one his best traits: catching the football, is not an O'Brien play because O'Brien is an idiot.

Yup, this is a guy that needs to be given space.  He falls down with first contact nearly every time.  The offense needs to design plays that get him in space.  He is fast, and can make you miss...but if you can get a finger on him, he falls down.

I hate to say this because I have him in my 2 most important leagues...but I am finally ready to admit that he is not who I thought he was, and not what some people still think he is.  he is an easily replaceable piece, who should be used as a 3rd down back, not a starter.

 

[zftcg]

Drafted him as my RB2. Trying not to assume NE will be the same type of blowout as last year, where he did nothing. But I'm putting Allen in as my RB2 this week and debating between Miller and Fitz as my flex. Leaning Fitz.

 

[SCT]

If Jordy sits I have to start Cobb over him I think. 

 

[LittlePhatty]

This is what "beyond" looks like.

 

[Interseptopus]

Yup, this is a guy that needs to be given space.  He falls down with first contact nearly every time.  The offense needs to design plays that get him in space.  He is fast, and can make you miss...but if you can get a finger on him, he falls down.

I hate to say this because I have him in my 2 most important leagues...but I am finally ready to admit that he is not who I thought he was, and not what some people still think he is.  he is an easily replaceable piece, who should be used as a 3rd down back, not a starter.

Loved him in MIA and was thrilled he went to HOU... haven't had him since his MIA days and I cant' say I'm too disappointed. I agree, he is not who I thought he was either, but HOU isn't really using him the best way for his skill set either. 

Foreman went for 16% FAAB overnight in my short bench league. Was surprised it was that much in my league. A lot of larger bids from yesterday.  I think I inflated the bidding thanks to my 60-something% bid on Cohen last week 

 

[mozzy84]

Miller seems to get a bad rap in this board. Guy is super quick and makes people miss, looks much better than Foreman imo. Houston just needs to figure out what kind of offense they wanna run and go with it.

 

[Peak]

So is this a guy you just cut bait on?  He's had about 9pts the last two weeks (non-PPR lgs).  I have him as a RB3, but looking at WW/FA in Carson, Henry, and C. Thompson.  HOU offense looks horrible right now.  Is there value here?  Considering dropping him for Carson or Henry - of even look to package him and a guy like Dez to an 0-2 team for a WR or RB upgrade.  I have him riding the pine this week, but not sure if I trust him enough to send him back out next week.

What is everyone else doing?  Holding?  Selling?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Unfortunately I think Miller is a hold for now. You are likely to not get any value in a trade, and not sure it's worth dumping him on the wire for a lotto ticket or an ascendant opportunity back given the volume that Miller will continue to see. The problem, as noted above, is that Miller isn't really doing anything with his opportunity, but even with a faltering offense they still have a fairly balanced attach (44.27% rush to 55.73% pass to date, which is fairly in line with last season's percentages).

Also, D'Onta Foreman seems to be a guy who the team should be gearing up to take more work on, and looked fairly good (especially for short yardage situations) but his snap counts are still behind Ervin and Prosch at this point, so there is still much to prove. So hard to move on from Miller at this point without really knowing how much Foreman's role will change. 

 

[zamboni]

Like everything else, I think the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Miller certainly hasn't looked like the same explosive RB we saw in Miami, when he did manage to shed tackles and create yardage on his own. By the same token, since he came to Houston, the team has had abysmal QB and OL play, which is basically a recipe for failure for all but maybe a few generational talents.

What continues to baffle me is the play calling - you have one of the best pass catching backs in the game in Miller, and he has received very few receptions since he came to Houston.

 

[Todem]

Like everything else, I think the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Miller certainly hasn't looked like the same explosive RB we saw in Miami, when he did manage to shed tackles and create yardage on his own. By the same token, since he came to Houston, the team has had abysmal QB and OL play, which is basically a recipe for failure for all but maybe a few generational talents.

What continues to baffle me is the play calling - you have one of the best pass catching backs in the game in Miller, and he has received very few receptions since he came to Houston.

Yeah.....Miller is an explosive back. But he can't get going if this OL continues to allow DL to shed blocks like they do vs Houston. The OL play is not good....not good at all. No QB since his arrival, and they refuse to use him in the screen game where he will hit homeruns for you.

Lamar Miller is a playmaker. But his situation is not good. I do have a lot of hope though with Deshaun Watson now at the helm things can open up for him in the passing game and running game. Watson is a winner, and a baller. Teams will have to start respecting Houston's passing game soon.

Strong hold in dynasty (and redraft...you can't cut this guy...if he will get you at least 10 points a week in PPR scoring). I am sure redraft guys have other WW fodder they can dump for another back. 

Despite the Texans OL woes he average 4.0 YPC in 2016.

 

[Weebs210]

Miller seems to get a bad rap in this board. Guy is super quick and makes people miss, looks much better than Foreman imo. Houston just needs to figure out what kind of offense they wanna run and go with it.

What? Do you even watch the the games? He looks prutrid and goes down to arm tackles.

 

[cloppbeast]

What continues to baffle me is the play calling - you have one of the best pass catching backs in the game in Miller, and he has received very few receptions since he came to Houston.

Especially when the Texans don't have any decent pass catchers outside of Hopkins.

 

[cloppbeast]

What? Do you even watch the the games? He looks prutrid and goes down to arm tackles.

Well, for me, I do watch the games. If you really think Foreman is so special compared to Miller I'd ask you the same thing. 

Nobody really thinks Miller is the best back in the league, but he's no doubt serviceable. Good vision, and quickness, with savvy; his only weakness is power. 

 

[Weebs210]

Well, for me, I do watch the games. If you really think Foreman is so special compared to Miller I'd ask you the same thing. 

Nobody really thinks Miller is the best back in the league, but he's no doubt serviceable. Good vision, and quickness, with savvy; his only weakness is power. 

I don't think he is so special. I just think he is better than Miller.

 

[battlestar]

I actually thought Miller looked better in the second half last week, both than he did in the first half and better than Foreman.  

He may continue to lose snaps to Foreman, but with so many RBBC's in the league now anyway this one may allow value for both.

I'd say he is a hold for now as well as someone above mentioned his value is too low to move him.  Probably adjusting my expectations down until the offense adjusts to Watson as the starter (which should have been done in the off season by the way).

 

[zftcg]

As I said, I may bench him this week, but definitely think he's a hold in redraft. As Watson gets more comfortable, he should benefit from having a running QB. I think Foreman will erode his value a bit, but as @battlestar says, RBBC is the new normal. Plus, we saw last year what being the team's only usable RB did to his efficiency/health.

 

[DaBeers]

Playing CJA over Miller this week.

Holding Miller for now Maybe more willing to trade him to a RB needy team if the right offer was presented.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

still had a 74/26 advantage in snap counts.  agree he is not a world-beater, but will wait to see how the Foreman pattern goes before totally panicking.  Miller was in basically the whole second half, I believe.

 

[Bojang0301]

Heard a stat today that claimed Miller had recieved zero touches in the red zone... can anyone confirm?

 

[BearsFan4Life]

He has been on my bench in dynasty and trying to trade him for anything of value at this point.

 

[lod001]

Like everything else, I think the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Miller certainly hasn't looked like the same explosive RB we saw in Miami, when he did manage to shed tackles and create yardage on his own. By the same token, since he came to Houston, the team has had abysmal QB and OL play, which is basically a recipe for failure for all but maybe a few generational talents.

What continues to baffle me is the play calling - you have one of the best pass catching backs in the game in Miller, and he has received very few receptions since he came to Houston.

O'Brien is a moron. He really looks dumb. That's all on him.

 

[lod001]

Heard a stat today that claimed Miller had recieved zero touches in the red zone... can anyone confirm?

Won't take me long to dig that up since they don't get near the redzone very often.

A quick check of the play by play:

They only got there once vs Cincy. What a bunch of losers. No touches.

They only got there twice vs Jax. No touches. My gawd they suck.

 

[mozzy84]

What? Do you even watch the the games? He looks prutrid and goes down to arm tackles.

Ahhh the old do you even watch games comment, classic

To say he looks putrid is silly (the o-line might look putrid) he has 35 carries in two games and hasn't gotten any receiving work as of yet really, guy has value and isn't just going to go away barring injury.

 

[Weebs210]

Ahhh the old do you even watch games comment, classic

To say he looks putrid is silly (the o-line might look putrid) he has 35 carries in two games and hasn't gotten any receiving work as of yet really, guy has value and isn't just going to go away barring injury.

Did you try watching it as a non biased owner?

 

[BustedKnuckles]

someone in my league just dropped him onto the waiver wire ...didnt even try to trade him....

 

[Dismattle]

someone in my league just dropped him onto the waiver wire ...didnt even try to trade him....

Who were they able too acquire?  How many RB's they need/carry? I recently dropped Mack, holding Miller. It don't matter how good a pass catcher, if another guy is seeing targets. Least with Mack, there is some reason, too believe upside. Mack may be getting time too heal, and only has 32 yds on two receptions. Coach, could try n game plan at some point, once QB learns more of playbook. I'm holding Miller in what? Hopes OLine learns too play. Miller is Good, not so sure it means, I myself make smart choices..