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Listen to what Yudkin says
24 views and no replies, I guess that means nobody really has a clue. Nobody knows what RatFace Billicheck is going to do. (I know most here refer to Shanahan as ratface, but I'm a Shanny fan, so I felt like calling someone else ratface) I took Jordan in the last round of my draft as a flier, but I'm considering dropping him for a week 1 defense. I was hoping along with the OP what anyone with NE knowledge felt about the situation.
I guess this one depends on the size of a particular league. In a smaller league, Jordan will likely be an after thought. In a 16-team league, he could even be a regular flex starter if it's a PPR league.I figure on things breaking down as follows:
Extremely helpful thanks...This is a 12 team PPR
"...which is exactly why I cannot choose the cup in front of me.""You're stalling."
BB is good at figuring out how to win. Over the years, NE HAS NOT been a very good running team. In a couple of years, what they lacked for in quality and production they made up for in quantity. They just rushed a lot more than they do now to make up for an otherwise below average rushing attack.We know the Pats have a lethal passing attack when everyone is healthy and can put a ton of points on the board that way. So why would the Pats go away from what they are ELITE at (in fact all time greatest at in some areas) to an area that they have some years been BOTTOM FIVE in the league at (in some rushing categories)? It just doesn't make sense.Also, NE actually did run the ball a fair amount last year (but as I mentioned not as much as other seasons). But their passing output so dwarfed their rushing totals that not many noticed. Even with a lot better rushing numbers last year, would anyone think NE was a rushing team? Would anyone run out an have wanted to use those backs in their fantasy lineup?I can see the Pats running more in the second half this year, but I don't see them putting up elite RB numbers a la Denver or KC from a few years ago.And for those that are interested, I'm hearing the Pats are still going pass happy in practice and am also hearing the game plan will still be pass first and run when they can/need to, not vice versa.
Why is Brady/Moss/Welker so heavily discounted then.... Its just Illogical. Well Moss is reasonable...Brady and Welker are absurdly under valued by the powers that be that make projections. maroney is hugely over valued by those same people...I guess they decide the gameplan.
Sammy Morris was a decent back end FF RB2 before he went down last year, and all signs were pointing to that continuing - not sure why you'd think people wouldn't have wanted to use him in their fantasy lineup - plenty of us were and happily.I don't think anyone's comparing these Pats to classic Denver/KC high running game production - but there's plenty of space between that at nothing.Just about every coach would like to be successful running the ball, and if not able to feature the run would like to at least have some balance. In that respect I don't think BB is any different. With this stable of guys BB has arguably the best collection of RBs he's had in his tenure in NE - I expect him to use them more often than last year in order to make the offense more multi dimensional thereby keeping D's from teeing off on Brady (especially with the line concerns they currently have) and to keep the D off the field longer and chew up more clock.Remember they basically put the AFC championship game away by running the ball down the Chargers' throats and only passing when necessary in the 4th quarter. That drive lasted about 9 minutes - you can't do that with an all out passing assault. I expect to see them try more of that this season.I guess we'll see how it plays out when the games start.
Dodds has Brady at 4237/39 (which is lower than he's had him at previously).Moss at 1260/16 and Welker 984/7.The way the Pats are currently practicing (TONS of short stuff, underneath stuff, and screens) seems to indicate that they are prepping for Brady to have no time to throw (thus impacting Moss but probably helping Welker).I'm hearing mixed reports on Welker (he got hurt in the Eagles game the other night . . . sore ribs is the official version), so we'll have to see if there's more to the story there or not.IMO, Welker's projection if healthy seems a little low. Moss is probably pretty close and Brady's a couple too many TD. Not sure Brady and Welker are "absurdly undervalued" at those projections.
Your statment is both true and misleading at the same time. Morris DID produce as a fantasy RB2 . . . but only AFTER Maroney was out of the lineup while injured.In the THREE GAMES with Maroney and Morris playing together . . .Maroney 20, 15, 19 carries.Morris 11, 10, 12 carries.I still see Maroney getting 15-18 carries and the rest of the backs splitting the rest (so another 15-18 carries) IF IT'S A GAME where the Pats actually decide to run the football.IMO, all of the Pats RBs will be fantasy deficient based on the fact that someone else on the team will be doing something to limit their fantasy value . . .Maroney: Won't play much on passing downs, won't get many receptions, won't get a ton of goal line carries, may get pulled early if the game is out of hand.Jordan: Won't get many "regular carries" (so mostly short yardaage), will split goal line duties with Morris, will split receiving duties with FaulkMorris: Won't get enough carries, won't catch many passes, will split short yardage with JordanFaulk: Will play the most on passing downs but will only get a handful of carries and very few TD opportunities.Add it all up, and I don't see any Pats RB being a great fantasy option in most normal size fantasy leagues.
IMO, with Maroney out the Pats would just give each piece of the remaining three a bigger role . . . not one guy taking over for Maroney.
Well let's remember what we're talking about here. In Jordan we're talking about a guy most people have forgotten - the OP took him with is last pick in the draft. I saw him go in the last round of a 16 team draft yesterday. He's as good a gamble as any at that price. I don't think anyone is saying (I'm certainly not) that they expect him to come right in, be the starter and put up huge numbers right now. But when you think about some of the back ups that people do handcuff with (say RB 5 or 6), he makes more sense than a lot of guys who do get drafted. And he may produce some numbers even without injuries ahead of him to the extent that you could start him in a real pinch and not get a total 0.
I'm not saying Jordan is not a decent gamble late and not a cheap investment, only that I think his chances of being a Top 10 guy like he was in OAK are remote. He might be worth it as an injury, bye week, or flex fill-in but I would have a hard time seeing a scenario (short of all my fantasy options were hurt) as being a real weekly option fantasy wise.Just my $0.02 . . .
they might not rush ala KC or Denver, but, if your theory of Ne stays true with the passing game,then Maroney and Co. will see PLENTY of mop-up duty action late in blowout games, and blowouts should happen regularly becaue NE is ,afterall playing the easiest schedule in the history of the NFL..if you believe that theory, the running game STILL gets big numbers.if you believe they will run a lot more this season,the running game takes a major step up! cannot lose in the NE RB situation...I'd expect Maroney to quietly become a top 10 RB this season,and for Jordan to be a great 4th quarter guy when/if NE has the game in hand..
People really need to understand that the regular and the post season are different animals. You need to run in the post season to win (and clearly you don't need to run so much in the regular season to win). Yes, NE had 145 and 149 rushing yards against the Jags and Bolts. But NE struggled to pass and Brady was dinged up by the time they played SD.That's part of the reason why I think NE will not work Maroney hard in the regular season . . . they need him healthy and refreshed in January. If they overwork him in a blowout against the Rams in the regular season, what good does that do them?I also didn't say that had no interst in the run, but selective interest in the run. They are still a pass first team and run to keep teams honest, but I do not see why or how they will become a run first team that passes on occasion.As for Thomas, I hear he has been doing a decent job and has been involved in those short passing plays, but I suspect he won't have a big role unless (when?) Watson gets hurt. He might be involved in a couple of routes a game, but I doubt that translates into big numbers fantasy wise.
I'm not sure the Pats have the easiest schedule in NFL history. I still don't see their rushing numbers going up dramatically (they were already in the Top 10 to begin with). They may rush a few more times a game but mostly in garbage time, and it could very easily be by Heath Evans. I truly think this will be a classic case of RBBC with Maroney serving a Julius Jones in Dallas role.I also think it's funny that some people are predicting blowout after blowout, while others are suggesting the Pats have looked terrible all preseason and could be 10-6.they might not rush ala KC or Denver, but, if your theory of Ne stays true with the passing game,then Maroney and Co. will see PLENTY of mop-up duty action late in blowout games, and blowouts should happen regularly becaue NE is ,afterall playing the easiest schedule in the history of the NFL..if you believe that theory, the running game STILL gets big numbers.if you believe they will run a lot more this season,the running game takes a major step up! cannot lose in the NE RB situation...I'd expect Maroney to quietly become a top 10 RB this season,and for Jordan to be a great 4th quarter guy when/if NE has the game in hand..
haha...I didn't mean to imply that they wanted to be run first, rather that they prefer closer to 50/50 balance, as shown in those games, as opposed to the 'pass happy' label they get because they have such an elite pass game, and also that they can run the ball w/anyone in the league when they want to.maybe we would've seen more running last season had their top 2 backs actually been healthy.as for those blowout games against *insert team here* in the regular season, I don't at all think it will be maroney being run into the ground ---- maybe someone more like........lamont jordan......?thx for the comments.
From what I can tell, Jordan is 4th on the depth chart after LM, SM, and KF (if that matters any).
Truer words have never been typed. I was a big believer in a Maroney breakout season in 2008 until the Patriots acquired Jordan. Even then, what I was considering a breakout season on that particular offense was, ballpark, about 1200 total yards (1000 rushing) and 8-9 total TD's. Not anymore. Last years numbers, with perhaps a bit more yardage but less TD's are more likely now, I say. Not to mention that Maroney, Faulk, Morris and Jordan each bring their own certain things to the table. Defenses are going to have fits trying to keep tabs on Moss, Welker and Watson and at the same time, identify who the Patriots currently have in the backfield and how they could be used in that particular situation.Then again, pretty much every one of the RB's save for Faulk is an injury risk. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds.
Also, they won't go undefeated this year. The schedule may be creampuff overall, but there's still some tough games on it. Three tough road games in San Diego, Indianapolis and Seattle. Two tough home games against Pittsburgh and Denver. Never mind the potential peskiness of the Buffalo Bills. I'm thinking 12-4.
And Just what exactly will NE be ELITE at when Brady gets injured? Although their passing attack was pretty impressive last year did you happen to notice all the close up and personal attention Brady was getting towards the end of the season and in the playoffs? I think we've already had a glimpse of what Bean-Town has to look forward to if Brady is on the sideline instead of under center. I mean lets face it, Cassell makes Vince Young look accurate and Alex Smith look fearless. NE will run the ball as often as they can get away with and throw it when they need to win.
That would explain why Brady has played in what like 112 games in a row? How would the Colts do with Sorgi? How about the Cowboys with Brad Johnson? The point being, no top shelf passing team is going to be as good without their starting QB. Do those teams run as much as they can to limit exposure to their QB?If Brady were to get seriously hurt, they'd obviously sign a free agent or trade for another QB. It's not like they have to play Cassell, Gutierrez, or O'Connell.
From the folks I know, there has been no talk of Jordan getting cut. Certainly NE can often change things up and go against the grain, but at this point it's pretty much a universal opinion from what I've heard that the Pats will keep Maroney, Morris, Jordan, Faulk, and Evans. Eckel will be cut and likely resigned to the practice quad unless another team signs him in the time that he has to be available as a free agent.All the reasons you cited as potential reasons for cutting him are the exact reasons why he will stay. THey don't have to pay him much, he's a more than capable player, and they signed him in a day. He didn't sit out there for months and then they broke down and signed him . . . they busted the door down to sign him before anyone else could. He's gotten rave reviws so far and the team keeps coming up with new ways that they could use him.NE was looking for another RB all off season, and I doubt they were doing that for kicks. Yes, they liked Morris, but Morris is no spring chicken (31), hasn't ever really had much of a workload, and is coming off a pretty serious injury. Maroney certainly has not been a pillar of health either. IMO, there are way more reasons to keep Jordan than there are in cutting him. I would be extremely surprised if they let him go at this point.
No one thinks it strange he's not played the last two games? Either the back is not right, or he doesn't fit somehow, but either way I think the inactivity is telling and he won't be there when the season begins.I guess we'll find out next Saturday.
I'm not sure what Brady's string of consecutive starts has to do with anything thats been said so far, but if it makes you feel better I'll concede that 112 games for a starting QB in the NFL is impressive.Of course those teams would be worse off with the back up playing versus their starting QB. Will it make NE feel better with their back up playing knowing that any of those other teams mentioned are in the same boat?Any half-wit (me included) understands that of course teams run the ball as much as they can to limit exposure to their QB. A strong dose of running the ball will slow a pass rush and cause safeties to cheat up. It not only opens up passing lanes and slows the pass rush, but it also sets up the play action fake. Stay with me here, it's not rocket science.I never said a team is going to run it's team into a loss just to save the Qb. I simply said they will run as much as they can get away with and pass to win. I can say it slower if it helps it sink in better. Whether they pass, pass then draw up the middle or run, run, then play action all teams will run the ball to slow down the defense, regardless of how potent their passing game is.
Hey pal, Yudkin is one of the sharpest guys around here. Argue all you want about things, but do so with respect. Condescending crap like this isn't appreciated.
Respect is received by those who give it, not when it's dictated by the guy on the couch. I'm sure Yudkin is "sharp" enough to understand that I'm messing with him based on the tone of his reply to my post. I believe I mentioned that half-wit included me. It's cute that you are looking after him, but I'm sure he's a big boy and can handle sarcasm all by himself. If not I'd be happy to apologize so we can all feel warm and fuzzy again and get back to football. Now if you have anything interesting to add to our discussion..I'd love to hear it.
I'm very high on Jordan if healthy, but I'm with Couch on this one now. Unless they held him to protect him because they're planning to give him a bigger role than we're thinking, you'd have to think something might not be right with his health and that he could be at risk of being cut.
A few possibilities:1) Jordan has a minor, nagging injury2) Pats know what Jordan is capable of now, and they're holding him out to avoid injury (b/c they would have to pay his full year salary if he got hurt)3) BB wants to make sure his starting RB doesn't get injuredDisclosure: I'm a Maroney/Morris owner, thus a bit jaded right now
Thanks. I hope your sources are good. I was just expressing an opinion, not backed by any inside info. As of now my opinion hasn't changed though.
David's sources were great last year. Wish I had listened to him early in the year, I could have traded Maroney for a sweet deal back then.As a Maroney owner, I'm beginning to hate BB the same way most people hate Shanahan.
The solution is to not be a Maroney owner...
To be clear, I am not anti-Maroney and am in fact a Maroney owner (although that fact really has no bearing at all on what I post).In 12, 14, or 16 team leagues Maroney is a passable RB2 and a good flex player, and if he falls far enough on draft day I don't think he is a terrible option. People just need to temper their enthusiasm some from last year when he was a late first round pick and people were expecting 1500-1800 total yards and 15+ TD.There are some things working in Maroney's favor, mostly his health and playing a full training camp (neither of which he had going for him last year).Even though Morris and Jordan are the ones getting most of the short yardage reps in practice, I think Maroney still will get a fair amount of goal line looks. He's been going in the 3rd round in most drafts which given the options available both at RB and other positions is probably too rich for my blood, but in the 4th or later I would consider him.I have seen a couple of folks go LT or ADP, WR/WR, and then Maroney in the early 4th, which to me seems like a decent maneuver.I think the biggest issue for Maroney owners is that the Pats game plan some games to all but eliminate the running game, and that could be maddening for people expecting or needing him to come through in their fantasy roster.
I have to agree here. I may be way off base but it has appeared to me that the Pats have gone with a new strategy each year. One year they featured TEs Graham and Fauria to great extenctThen it was so many short passes just to move the chains that people thought Brady could not throw long.Then when people said the Pats were a passing team, the Pats featured Dillon and Rookie Maroney to eat up the clock.Last year was the year of the deep passes downfield.Does anyone really think that Moss and Brady are going to fulfill their ADP this year when recent history has shown otherwise in the Pats system? Any player on the Pats this year has the potential to be a fantasy steal.The question is who? It could very well be Jordan. I am more willing to gamble on Jordan late than Brady/Moss early.
Bottom line is, other than last year, when did Brady have any top flight receivers to throw to? Branch was ok. Givens was ok. Borown was aging rapidly and was not a huge factor. Patten was there for a while in a supporting role. NONE OF THEM compared to Randy Moss, and none of them fit with Moss as Welker has with Moss.Does anyone even remember the Pats receiving corps from a couple of seasons ago? Reche Caldwell? Doug Gabriel? Not even in the same dimension as Moss and Welker.The Pats many not have the lofty passing numbers they did last season . . . but that DOES NOT mean they will have better rushing totals because they lost out on their passing production.As I have pointed out that for the most part the Pats rushing game has been average or below average most of the time. One year they did very well with Dillon and a couple years they did put up a lot of rushing TD.So to say that "recent history has shown otherwise in the Pats system" is a bit misleading that the key receiving guys in the system weren't there except for last year.
Exactly. The only reason the Colts won the SuperBowl was because Caldwell could not hang on to easily thrown balls that hit him right between the numbers. The Pats went from having one the worst receiving core in the NFL, to having one of the best. And Moss is a threat like no other. To think the Pats are going to switch to a run orientated offence because they have a bunch of decent RB's is a stretch. Brady will throw more than 35 TD's and Moss will catch more than 14 TDs. Jordan is a capable back though, and could get the majority of carries. In that case, he would be a steal.
