Larry Johnson to Dallas (1 Viewer)

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This guy basically ripped off Football Outsiders and didn't even properly state the idea here.

A running back with a season of 370+ carries will almost always decline afterward, and the effects get worse as the carries on that season increase. Except Eric Dickerson and LT...and the funny thing is, they just recently figured out the exact reason why that is. It's something a lot of "purists" can't stand: Ducking out of bounds.

Dickerson, of course, was hated by the media throughout his career for doing just that. And, in studying game logs, the crew at FO learned that LT goes out of bounds more often than any other RB today. Actually, it was Emmitt Smith who told him to start doing this; Smith's own decline began after two 370+ carry seasons. Looking at the out-of-bounds data for all RBs suggests that this is indeed effective in extending careers.

LJ, on the other hand, does not shy away from contact. He specifically prides himself on being "tough" and "physical" IIRC. This, combined with his record-setting workload last season, is why I will not own him in any fantasy league this year and why nobody in their right mind should trade for him IMO.

-Josh

Link to that article? Must've missed it.

 

[joffer]

If you think LJ is worth a 1st rounder you've been making too many FF trades. Two years ago, Seattle and Indianapolis couldn't get a 2nd for Alexander and James, respectively. Both RBs were equal or younger in age than LJ at the time, weren't coming off 400+ carries and weren't expecting an LT size contract.

Portis went for Champ Bailey, I don't see how that isn't 1st round value. Also, trading for Alexander or James meant trading for their current contracts, which were bigger than LJ's.

 

[CA_7]

If you think LJ is worth a 1st rounder you've been making too many FF trades.

Two years ago, Seattle and Indianapolis couldn't get a 2nd for Alexander and James, respectively. Both RBs were equal or younger in age than LJ at the time, weren't coming off 400+ carries and weren't expecting an LT size contract.

Portis went for Champ Bailey, I don't see how that isn't 1st round value. Also, trading for Alexander or James meant trading for their current contracts, which were bigger than LJ's.

1. Denver traded Portis and a 2nd for Champ. The 2nd ended up being Tatum Bell.2. I believe Alexander and James had restrictive tags placed on them and technically weren't under contract at the time

 

[John Mamula]

Dallas 1st rounder plus MB3Is that reasonable?

lmfaoat least throw in a bottle of vaseline.

 

[munchkin]

If you think LJ is worth a 1st rounder you've been making too many FF trades. Two years ago, Seattle and Indianapolis couldn't get a 2nd for Alexander and James, respectively. Both RBs were equal or younger in age than LJ at the time, weren't coming off 400+ carries and weren't expecting an LT size contract.

Last year the Patriots were able to get a first rounder for Branch. This year the Patriots were able to get a first rounder for Joe Staley. The Cowboys were able to get a fist round pick for Brady Quinn. Trades are made if the perceived value is great enough.Will a trade between the Cowboys and Chiefs go down for LJ, who knows, this discussion is speculative. Jones, like Steinbrenner, wants to win. If he feels that LJ is a missing piece of the puzzle then he may persue a deal. It is not out of the question that he has, or is, weighing the value of such a deal. With a new stadium opening in a couple of years it wouldn't hurt to have the team on a proverbial roll. A known back with a lot of upside is woth more than an unknown draft pick. Potential is great but realized potential is even better. LJ and his agent will need to be reasonable or nothing will get done. That goes for both KC and Dallas. Neither team will overpay. LJ has a lot of talent. Arguably that talent is worth more to Dallas than KC because thay have a team which is better able to utilize his abilities. I agree that it is not worth overpaying for those abilities. He can risk getting beat up for two years for his rookie contract, sit out for $0 (or negative dollars with the fines he would incur) during the prime of his career, negotiate a long term deal on a rebuilding team, or play his cards on a contending team. There are creative ways to construct contracts. Romo's upcoming contract is legitimate concern if he plays well. I doubt they are too concerned with Roy Williams.

 

[Bankerguy]

If you think LJ is worth a 1st rounder you've been making too many FF trades. Two years ago, Seattle and Indianapolis couldn't get a 2nd for Alexander and James, respectively. Both RBs were equal or younger in age than LJ at the time, weren't coming off 400+ carries and weren't expecting an LT size contract.

Last year the Patriots were able to get a first rounder for Branch. This year the Patriots were able to get a first rounder for Joe Staley. The Cowboys were able to get a fist round pick for Brady Quinn. Trades are made if the perceived value is great enough.Will a trade between the Cowboys and Chiefs go down for LJ, who knows, this discussion is speculative. Jones, like Steinbrenner, wants to win. If he feels that LJ is a missing piece of the puzzle then he may persue a deal. It is not out of the question that he has, or is, weighing the value of such a deal. With a new stadium opening in a couple of years it wouldn't hurt to have the team on a proverbial roll. A known back with a lot of upside is woth more than an unknown draft pick. Potential is great but realized potential is even better. LJ and his agent will need to be reasonable or nothing will get done. That goes for both KC and Dallas. Neither team will overpay. LJ has a lot of talent. Arguably that talent is worth more to Dallas than KC because thay have a team which is better able to utilize his abilities. I agree that it is not worth overpaying for those abilities. He can risk getting beat up for two years for his rookie contract, sit out for $0 (or negative dollars with the fines he would incur) during the prime of his career, negotiate a long term deal on a rebuilding team, or play his cards on a contending team. There are creative ways to construct contracts. Romo's upcoming contract is legitimate concern if he plays well. I doubt they are too concerned with Roy Williams.

Good post.It's Newman not Williams to be signed.

 

[rascal]

If you think LJ is worth a 1st rounder you've been making too many FF trades.

Two years ago, Seattle and Indianapolis couldn't get a 2nd for Alexander and James, respectively. Both RBs were equal or younger in age than LJ at the time, weren't coming off 400+ carries and weren't expecting an LT size contract.

Portis went for Champ Bailey, I don't see how that isn't 1st round value. Also, trading for Alexander or James meant trading for their current contracts, which were bigger than LJ's.

1. Denver traded Portis and a 2nd for Champ. The 2nd ended up being Tatum Bell.2. I believe Alexander and James had restrictive tags placed on them and technically weren't under contract at the time

You have that stated wrong.Redskins traded Champ and a second for Portis. The 2nd ended up being Tatum Bell.

 

[CA_7]

You have that stated wrong.Redskins traded Champ and a second for Portis. The 2nd ended up being Tatum Bell.

Yea that wouldn't make sense in regards to Bell. would it. My bad, not going to trust that source again Thanks

 

[BigTex]

This rumor has been debunked here locally. It is what it is.........a rumor.

 

[erymer]

From a straight talent stand point no doubt....no arguement here.

The problem for me is the "Value".... Compare the dollars to the production. I like getting McFadden at rookie dollars much more than giving up assets to a guy with a somewhat questionable character, who has a lot of carries, and a guy who benefited from running behind a fantastic O-line.

As a fan.....I would NOT be happy with acquiring LJ unless we hose KC on the deal. Again....I would be shocked to see it go down.

McFadden at rookie dollars? You mean top 5 pick, 50 million, 25 guaranteed? Those rookie dollars? And who says you even get Dmac? And so you sacrifice this year with a two headed monster, which did jack for you last year?

TO has 2 years left tops. Glenn is almost done. You have 1-2 year window to make a serious run. LJ is a big upgrade. And he's an even bigger upgrade over Dmac in his rookie year.

And the KC oline was not fantastic last year. Probably the worst set of tackles in the league. Horrible QB play. No WRs. Yeah LJ was living the high life.

Clearly getting LJ would give them a better chance to win a SB. This year, and next. And Dallas is worried about character? They did sign TO right?

could not agree more. they would rather pay a kid who hasn't proved a thing the same kind of money as LJ is looking for with no guarantee that they will even get him. Everyone is making a big deal because LJ had 400+ carries last year. He is still a low mileage guy. This was his first full year as a starter. I would rather pay a guy who has proven that he can get it done than some kid (as talented as he may be) the same contract. Barring a disaster, LJ would put the Boys in the hunt for a ring this season. McFadden 'might' do the same in 3 years, but will they still have TO? Glenn? Jones is a UFA at seasons end and MB3 is an RFA. Neither one really represents a long term answer at the position for Dallas or the other would have been gone by now. So, in LJ you get a guy who can do the job that they have both JJ and MB3 on the roster for and do it better. It also frees up a roster spot for help in other areas. I think if Dallas could give up their first and MB3 it would be worth doing. I doubt KC would accept a reasonable offer though. Knowing how they do business it might take until the end of the season before they would agree to anything.

 

[redman]

As a non-Dallas fan, I think they should wait and shoot for McFadden next April.

McFadden could be just as good in the pros and has much less wear on his body. Like a lot of people said this comes down to whether Jones wants to make a play for the Superbowl this season.

The window for that offense as presently constituted, particularly at WR, is not going to be open to win a championship for very long. The line is aging too. Still, this would be a poor use of resources as they're going to need those two #1's next year to retool that offense.

 

[Routilla]

As a Cowboys' fan I would love to have LJ but with MBIII on board and 2 1st-rounders next year I don't know if it makes sense. But I could see Jones doing it if he thought either PHI or NYG were pursuing LJ. This would truly be a blockbuster trade if it went down and I think the many Dallas' haters would all feel a collective increase in their blood pressure.