Larry Johsnon 2008 (1 Viewer)

[Thumper]

How do you project L.J. in 2008?

Clearly he is not going to put up the numbers he did only a couple of years ago, but I do think there is a good chance he has a bounce back season in 2008.

If I had to project Johnson this season I would guess he would end the season with around 1,150 yards 300 rec yards and 8 td's. I think Johsnon will be a pretty weak #1, but a very solid #2.

As long as you lower your expectations on L.J. (due to his weak O-line+ poor qb) I think he will deliver.

Any thoughts?

 

[spy231]

I would be fine with those #'s as he is my third RB in my dynasty. I think he may even exceed that TD projection by 2 or 3. Roster in Sig.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

LJ will get 300 carries this year...that's outstanding opportunity from your RB2. He actually played very well before he got hurt....4 of his last 5 games looked like this....

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

Not bad. He could actually surprise this year, and will have every opportunity to put up yds and tds.

Edit to add...those are rushing totals only. He had another 20+ receiving each game also.

 

[Scarpati]

With KC's QB situation, they have only two reasonable plays to call:

1) Hand off to LJ

2) Punt

You have to think they'll try 1) a few times every series before they go to 2). Stats have to start piling up sooner or later.

 

[captbly]

I sure hope so because I have him in both of my leagues. as a #1 in one and a #2 in other

 

[thatguy]

A lot of good information and projections in his player spotlight:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=405340

 

[Otis]

LJ will get 300 carries this year...that's outstanding opportunity from your RB2. He actually played very well before he got hurt....4 of his last 5 games looked like this....123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 tdNot bad. He could actually surprise this year, and will have every opportunity to put up yds and tds.Edit to add...those are rushing totals only. He had another 20+ receiving each game also.

He will absolutely outperform. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1500+ total yards and 8 or more TDs.

 

[thatguy]

LJ will get 300 carries this year...that's outstanding opportunity from your RB2. He actually played very well before he got hurt....4 of his last 5 games looked like this....123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 tdNot bad. He could actually surprise this year, and will have every opportunity to put up yds and tds.Edit to add...those are rushing totals only. He had another 20+ receiving each game also.

He will absolutely outperform. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1500+ total yards and 8 or more TDs.

I would say 8 TD's is his floor. I think anywhere from 10-14 is a reasonable expectation.

 

[The Jacket]

The OP's projection looks solid. As a Chiefs fan, I'd hope he doesn't get that many carries, but as an LJ owner I'd be okay with it.

 

[puckalicious]

LJ is being undervalued by most, and while he's not the SOD he provides tremendous value in the 2nd round as RB2 or as RB1 paired with a top WR1/QB1.

 

[Romofan]

I have LJ so I am a little biased BUT I look for him to finish in the top10 easily but I really think he will end up top 5. I think the big difference maker is new OC Chan Gailey. Chan Gailey has NEVER given his #1RB less than 300 carries in a season. He gave Bettis 375 in '97. LJ will get his opportunities to prove he is still the ol' LJ.

 

[baconisgood]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

 

[Banger]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

 

[Moe Green]

I would be fine with those #'s as he is my third RB in my dynasty. I think he may even exceed that TD projection by 2 or 3. Roster in Sig.

Thanks for the reminder that your roster is in your sig.

 

[baconisgood]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

 

[massraider]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

 

[evilempire]

How do you project L.J. in 2008?Clearly he is not going to put up the numbers he did only a couple of years ago, but I do think there is a good chance he has a bounce back season in 2008.If I had to project Johnson this season I would guess he would end the season with around 1,150 yards 300 rec yards and 8 td's. I think Johsnon will be a pretty weak #1, but a very solid #2.As long as you lower your expectations on L.J. (due to his weak O-line+ poor qb) I think he will deliver.Any thoughts?

If I thought any of their games would be close I'd project higher numbers. But they'll be behind early and often, which means a lot more passing than they want.I'll say 1100 yards/7 TDs. KC could easily be the worst offense in the NFL.I have him as RB15 in my rankings for this season.

 

[Largent]

Chan Gaily = top 10 easily....1450 12td's

 

[AnonymousBob]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

You should draft Travis Henry this year. He won't touch the ball at all - should be a stud.

 

[Mozeta]

I don't think LJ is going to live up to his expectations this year. The O-line and QB play in KC will hurt him and I think the Chiefs will be playing catchup a lot this year and be forced to pass more. My guy tells me that time and a deteriorating situation in KC will take it's toll on LJ and I just don't feel like taking the risk.

I have the 10th pick in my league this year and I'm pretty sure LJ and Lynch will be there and I will probably go with Lynch and then a WR with the 11th pick leaving someone else to roll the dice and deal with that headache. When RB's start to go downhill it tends to happen really fast i.e. Alexander, Rudi Johnson. Dont be surprised to see LJ follow this trend in the next year or two.

Ill take my chances on a young up and coming RB like Lynch who has big potential and an improving team situation over an older guy like LJ who has been on a steady decline with an increasingly worse team situation.

 

[On The Rocks]

I have the 6th pick in a ten team league and I am hoping to get either MJD or LJ in the second. I am also hoping one of the two will be gone by the time I pick so I don't have to make a choice.

 

[MSULions]

had the 5th pick last night and LJ fell to 2.8 - I hemmed and hawed over him and MJD and ultimately went with LJ to go with MBIII. His upside is just way to high, and at 2.8 in a 12 teamer he could turn out to be the steal of the draft. time will tell, but I like him to outperform his draft spot. he's only a year removed from being #2/3 overall and by all accounts is 100% healthy again. worth the risk imho.

 

[Otis]

had the 5th pick last night and LJ fell to 2.8

That's absurdly good value IMO

 

[Todem]

had the 5th pick last night and LJ fell to 2.8

That's absurdly good value IMO

In a dynasty start up in May I was able to land both LJ and and McGahee at 2.12 and 3.01. I thought the value was too good to pass up for my RB2 and RB3 to go along with ADP.I think LJ is undervalued this season. He is a true hass who is in tremendous physical condition and playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. Before his injury last year (and that had nothing to do with too many carries that is just absurd) he was starting to be the wrecking ball he was the previous year.1400 total yards and 12 TD's is what I project along with 40 receptions. The offense is built around him.McGahee on the other hand.....

 

[baconisgood]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

 

[Banger]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td112 yds 1 td119 yds 1 td53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25312419 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I don't worry about injuries (isn't MJD hurt right now?). I want my RB (player) to get the ball as much as possible. Their best lineman got hurt early in the preaseason and should be back early in the season. I don't expect their line to be good by any stretch but it will be better than last year and even as horrible as it was last year LJ was on pace for a good year.

 

[Interseptopus]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

 

[bocksheesh]

Chan Gaily = top 10 easily....1450 12td's

Does anyone have numbers for how RBs have previously done with Chan Gailey as the Offensive Coordinator?I do like the idea of LJ bouncing back some this season, but at the same time, that Offensive Line and QB positions are rough. There is only so much LJ can do.And I think if there's any factor that would contribute to a LJ rebound, it would be the presence of Gailey in KC.

 

[Das Boot]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

Agreed that LJ likely will get a more evenly distributed number of ppg.The bigger point is that MJD has upside - he has the chance during the season to get more carries - LJ pretty much doesn't.

MJD could get more carries than expected due to an injury to Taylor, or simply due to outplaying Taylor.

More touches for MJD = greater scoring.

Also IMO (and probably statistically demonstrable), more carries = greater injury potential, in general.

So there certainly are good reasons to take the back getting less carries but roughly equal projected points going into the season.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I've been very standoffish on LJ all summer and during most of the preseason. Just like everyone else, the offensive line not being once what it was, the fact that he was only able to play 8 games last year just gave me the feeling taking him within the first 2 rounds would ultimately lead to disappointment.

After watching him a couple of games, I thought he looked pretty good. I don't think I'm ready to lead the charge for Larry Johnson to get back to 1700 yard form, but if the guy can stay healthy, he will be a very effective player in your starting lineups.

He basically went from a player I was skipping over early in drafts to a guy I'd be willing to draft in the right situation.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If the stars aligned for MJD, I could see him getting 11-13 TDs.

If the stars aligned for LJ, I could see him approaching 20 TDs.

So if we're going to talk about potential ceilings, let's not kid ourselves that MJD finishing in the top 5 would be a far stranger event that LJ finishing in top 5.

Having said that, I accept the notion that MJD is a much safer pick.

 

[bocksheesh]

I've been very standoffish on LJ all summer and during most of the preseason. Just like everyone else, the offensive line not being once what it was, the fact that he was only able to play 8 games last year just gave me the feeling taking him within the first 2 rounds would ultimately lead to disappointment.After watching him a couple of games, I thought he looked pretty good. I don't think I'm ready to lead the charge for Larry Johnson to get back to 1700 yard form, but if the guy can stay healthy, he will be a very effective player in your starting lineups.He basically went from a player I was skipping over early in drafts to a guy I'd be willing to draft in the right situation.

And what is the "right situation" in which to draft him? Should he fall any later than mid 2nd round in a 12-teamer?I have the 12/13 pick in a 12-team league, and even though I think #13 is probably a bit early for him, I'm giving consideration to taking him there since he obviously won't make it back to me.

 

[shredhead]

I've been very standoffish on LJ all summer and during most of the preseason. Just like everyone else, the offensive line not being once what it was, the fact that he was only able to play 8 games last year just gave me the feeling taking him within the first 2 rounds would ultimately lead to disappointment.After watching him a couple of games, I thought he looked pretty good. I don't think I'm ready to lead the charge for Larry Johnson to get back to 1700 yard form, but if the guy can stay healthy, he will be a very effective player in your starting lineups.He basically went from a player I was skipping over early in drafts to a guy I'd be willing to draft in the right situation.

And what is the "right situation" in which to draft him? Should he fall any later than mid 2nd round in a 12-teamer?I have the 12/13 pick in a 12-team league, and even though I think #13 is probably a bit early for him, I'm giving consideration to taking him there since he obviously won't make it back to me.

The right time for me was pick 15 (2.3 in a 12 teamer) I have been of the notion of skipping LJ in all my drafts all pre season. Last night I just couldn't pass on him. Much to my surprise, Tom Brady fell to me at 1.10. I had planned my whole draft on the premise that Brady and Moss would be gone by 10, so I was planning on going with Portis or Lynch. With Brady there at 10, I had to pick him. Then in round 2 with Portis/Lynch both gone, I took LJ over Grant and McGahee. LJ had the most upside in my eyes at that point. I know I could have gone WR and gotton Wayne,Fitz,Colston, or Braylon there, but I felt it was best for my team to go LJ at that spot. So there you have it, That is what the "right situation" to draft LJ was for me, and I've been a guy that has been down on LJ during the preseason.

 

[Tanner9919]

If the stars aligned for MJD, I could see him getting 11-13 TDs. If the stars aligned for LJ, I could see him approaching 20 TDs.So if we're going to talk about potential ceilings, let's not kid ourselves that MJD finishing in the top 5 would be a far stranger event that LJ finishing in top 5.Having said that, I accept the notion that MJD is a much safer pick.

HOW is MJD the better solution to MJD??!?! tough Jax schedule vs. a cakewalk schedule for KC.THREE rb's in Jax vs 1 in KC.Chan Gailey as KC's offensive coordinator..never has a chan gailey offense finished worse than 7th in rush tds, or worse that 17th in rush yards..bank on LJ getting 330 carries ( minimum), 1320 yards(4.0 per clip), 30+ rec, and at least 12 tds, probably closer to 15-16TDs..so how is MJD going to outperform LJ when MJD has Freddie Taylor still hanging around, kicking butt in preseason looking like a 22 yr old RB? Also, Greg Jones will get a lot of carries..MJD is WAY overvalued and is being drafted TOO HIGH in many fantasy drafts, imo..he's a glorified part time player, another Reggie Bush type of player...

 

[baconisgood]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

Lol. My own world.LJs pt totals last year (not counting fumbles)

8

8

4

14

1

19

19

21

MJDs

5

4

4

17

29

12

5

5

18

9

8

11

4

9

19

And in MJDs first year once he started getting touches he only had two games where he didn't score a TD, and he had 95 and 87 total yards in those two games.

MJD and LJ are just the most extreme examples of the disparity between touches and fantasy production. there are plenty of other backs whose value lies largely in being the bulk carrier (Lewis, Edge) and some who still produce despite getting many fewer carries (MBIII and Chester). Its very easy to overrate guys who are ok backs in a good situation (Lewis) or good backs in bad situations (LJ) but their upside is limited (compared to MB3 and MJD) and their exposure to injury is high.

 

[EugeneChung]

He fell to me at 2.4 (after drafting Moss in the 1st) and I felt like he was a more solid play over MJD and that MJD would not make it back to me at the beginning of the 3rd.

I know the "carry" argument is valid for some but, personally, I WANT my RB to be getting consistent carries, figuring out the D, and not relying on a home run to get points. I would look that direction for my #2 RB in a PPR. Not my #1.

The idea that more carries opens an RB up for more risk is kind of ridiculous to me considering that anyone can get hurt at any time in the game. Sin't MJD already dealing with an ankle sprain? Sure, more carries (possibly) means exposing an RB to more risk but it also means more potential value and, ultimately, scoring.

 

[baconisgood]

Also, Greg Jones will get a lot of carries.

Greg, I got 151 carries at a 3.8 average one year and I'm going to steal touches from Fred Taylor and MJD? At best he will be used in short yardage situations. Lot of touches? un, friggin, likely.

If the stars aligned for MJD, I could see him getting 11-13 TDs.

15. 15 is the number of TDs MJD had his rookie year, where he had 6 total touches the first two games, and for some reason the max you can see is 13 TDs "if the stars align"? Bizarre.

So if we're going to talk about potential ceilings, let's not kid ourselves that MJD finishing in the top 5 would be a far stranger event that LJ finishing in top 5.

In 2005 Fred Taylor averaged 18.8 touches a game (11 games) with Greg Lewis as his backup. If Fred Goes down that would represent 5-5.5 more touches a game for MJD over the last two years. He was RB 8 and 13 the past two years, and needed ~ 40 and 63 more pts those years to crack that top 5.

 

[massraider]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

Lol. My own world.LJs pt totals last year (not counting fumbles)

8

8

4

14

1

19

19

21

MJDs

5

4

4

17

29

12

5

5

18

9

8

11

4

9

19

And in MJDs first year once he started getting touches he only had two games where he didn't score a TD, and he had 95 and 87 total yards in those two games.

MJD and LJ are just the most extreme examples of the disparity between touches and fantasy production. there are plenty of other backs whose value lies largely in being the bulk carrier (Lewis, Edge) and some who still produce despite getting many fewer carries (MBIII and Chester). Its very easy to overrate guys who are ok backs in a good situation (Lewis) or good backs in bad situations (LJ) but their upside is limited (compared to MB3 and MJD) and their exposure to injury is high.

Those weekly numbers don't really seem to convince me of anything. I see LJ, in half a season with 4 games in double digits, and MJD, in twice as many games, with 6.Upside? hasn't LJ had two seasons as a healthy starter finished as the #2 fantasy RB? Doesn't it seem more likely that MJD's 2007 seems like a more likely finish than his 2006 season?

 

[baconisgood]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

Lol. My own world.LJs pt totals last year (not counting fumbles)

8

8

4

14

1

19

19

21

MJDs

5

4

4

17

29

12

5

5

18

9

8

11

4

9

19

And in MJDs first year once he started getting touches he only had two games where he didn't score a TD, and he had 95 and 87 total yards in those two games.

MJD and LJ are just the most extreme examples of the disparity between touches and fantasy production. there are plenty of other backs whose value lies largely in being the bulk carrier (Lewis, Edge) and some who still produce despite getting many fewer carries (MBIII and Chester). Its very easy to overrate guys who are ok backs in a good situation (Lewis) or good backs in bad situations (LJ) but their upside is limited (compared to MB3 and MJD) and their exposure to injury is high.

Those weekly numbers don't really seem to convince me of anything. I see LJ, in half a season with 4 games in double digits, and MJD, in twice as many games, with 6.Upside? hasn't LJ had two seasons as a healthy starter finished as the #2 fantasy RB? Doesn't it seem more likely that MJD's 2007 seems like a more likely finish than his 2006 season?

Those weekly numbers lay to rest the tired old chestnut that yardage backs are more consistent than TD backs. LJ was a #2 fantasy back with one of the best Olines in football (and also a pro bowl QB in 2005) their team is much weaker at QB and o-line than it was during those years making it much harder for LJ to repeat those numbers.

 

[Statler & Waldorf]

I have LJ and I'm concerned for several reasons.

1. Offensive line- in 4 preseason games all Chiefs backs have averaged 4.1 yards/carry. Chi, Ari, Miami, STL. Thats as soft a lineup as you could hope for and

123 yds 0 td

112 yds 1 td

119 yds 1 td

53 yds 1 td

to get these stats he had25

31

24

19 carries, and two of those games were against Cinci and Oak. Hes going to rely on volume for his production which means hes going to have to take a beating to get his yards. I see his upside like Edge in Ari. Lots of touches, crappy y/c, modest TD totals. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him against top run Ds. He does have a good schedule as far as that goes, and I'd pick him up in the 2nd round, but not the first as my #1.

I wouldn't worry about preseason ypc one bit. Unless you have in a dynasty league, I wouldn't worry about the wear/tear issue either. He's gonna get the ball a ton, he's their best player, Herm loves to run, their line will be bad and he will be an accumulator of stats with an ugly ypc and he'll be a top 10 back. If their line can come together a bit or if he can get a bunch of redzone activity (which I don't anticipate) he can maybe jump up to top 5. He's being drafted at his downside IMO.

what worries me about their oline is that they overhauled it in the offseason, they should have guys they are considering for the first team playing longer into games with better backups playing against the third team. As far as looking at their stats and the camp reports it doesn't look like they are going to be even league average at this point.the extra carriers worries me because more carries = more chance of getting injured. Be it from wear and tear or from a fluke injury. I'd much rather have an MJD style player (if his projections were a bit higher) who is touching the ball 15 times a game, not 25.

I'll take the guy getting more carries.

Why the hell would you take the guy getting more carries if they are scoring the same number of points?

bacon you obviously live in your own world or somethingI own both LJ and MJD, and I really hope Fred Tayloreither gets suspended or hurt this season so MJD can get more carries.

You want a player that can touch the ball 15 times a game and score a TD or two and run for 100 yards? EVERY NFL COACH WANTS THAT. The reality is they aren't frequent. MJD had ZERO value last year when he didn't score a TD. Why you may ask? Well, because he wasn't getting enough touches to make a big enough impact. You want a guy that gets the ball maybe 15 times per game, well then you better be willing to accept a 5 point week (50 yards, zero TDs) from that player.

LJ getting maybe 300-350 touches this season results in his increase in value as every touch is a possibility to put up better numbers and score. With more touches you will receive better consistency. Sure, at the end of the year LJ and MJD may average about the same, but let's say LJ gets 16 points per game this season... and MJD averages the same, but he had a few < 10 point games and a few > 20 point games... which would you rather have come playoffs?

Lol. My own world.LJs pt totals last year (not counting fumbles)

8

8

4

14

1

19

19

21

MJDs

5

4

4

17

29

12

5

5

18

9

8

11

4

9

19

And in MJDs first year once he started getting touches he only had two games where he didn't score a TD, and he had 95 and 87 total yards in those two games.

MJD and LJ are just the most extreme examples of the disparity between touches and fantasy production. there are plenty of other backs whose value lies largely in being the bulk carrier (Lewis, Edge) and some who still produce despite getting many fewer carries (MBIII and Chester). Its very easy to overrate guys who are ok backs in a good situation (Lewis) or good backs in bad situations (LJ) but their upside is limited (compared to MB3 and MJD) and their exposure to injury is high.

Those weekly numbers don't really seem to convince me of anything. I see LJ, in half a season with 4 games in double digits, and MJD, in twice as many games, with 6.Upside? hasn't LJ had two seasons as a healthy starter finished as the #2 fantasy RB? Doesn't it seem more likely that MJD's 2007 seems like a more likely finish than his 2006 season?

Those weekly numbers lay to rest the tired old chestnut that yardage backs are more consistent than TD backs. LJ was a #2 fantasy back with one of the best Olines in football (and also a pro bowl QB in 2005) their team is much weaker at QB and o-line than it was during those years making it much harder for LJ to repeat those numbers.

Sorry for copying such a long thread, but I just wanted to say that LJ missed preseason last year so he wasn't in game shape the first few weeks. Notice the spike after week 3, beside that one game with one point. I personally like LJ better this year.

 

[Interseptopus]

I got nothing to add in response to bacon. This has all been great.

Bacon, no one is going to convince anyone of anything here. It's like arguing politics. You go ahead with your 10-15 touch/game back. Personally, I hope you do well because that means I did well with MJD too. But I think Fred Taylor is getting injured and THAT'S why MJD will be awesome this year. I'm not real high on LJ, and if it were up to me I'd take MJD over LJ (I was pretty much forced to keep LJ because his salary was just so low). However, I disagree with you in taking MJD over a back who gets 30 touches a game. LJ is an exception because of the reasons you gave- his OL and QB. However, I don't think we should give up on Croyle just yet. The games he played last year he faced top 10 defenses. The kid may actually do better this season.

Regardless, I think LJ's value rides on him getting catches. In a PPR league I think LJ is much more valuable. If you can't run the ball with LJ, you pass it to him. I could see LJ with 75 yards rushing per game, 4-5 catches for 25 yards a game, and 1 TD... which would bring his averages to... 1200 rushing yards, 64-80 receptions, 400 receiving yards, and 16 TDs, but that won't happen so I'll say about 12 TDs. Pretty solid. I think you see more of LJ through the air this year if the OL is as bad as it is. Yo uhave to get your best player the ball somehow if you want to win.

 

[nxmehta]

I picked up LJ at 2.06 in a 10 teamer after taking Brady in the first (start 2QB so I had to go for Brady).

I sure hope that LJ picks it up this year. He has a lot of upside but honestly I'm not expecting a top 5 finish. However, If he can just last 14-16 games and perform near his draft position (RB10-ish) then I think most of his owners will be pleased.

To the poster who's talking about LJ catching 64-80 passes- where in the world are you getting that number?! He's only caught over 40 once in his career. LJ is not a PPR back. "Anticipating" that LJ is going to catch 2x-3x more passes than his career average just because the O-line is bad doesn't make a whole lot of sense?

 

[YoUnG GuNz]

He caught 3O last year in 8 games. He would have easily had 5O to 55 receptions

 

[thehornet]

I love LJ if for nothing else, he will touch the ball close to 375 times this year. Yes, 375. 300-320 carries with close to 50 receptions. Barring an injury, he is a lock for 1500 total yards. he is also the only guy who can socre Touchdowns in KC besaides Gonzalez and a few by Bowe. 10TD's is a minimum.

I honestly see his floor as 50 Rec/1500 total yards/10 TD.

(i love LJ and my personal projections are higher than these above)

 

[Banger]

I love LJ if for nothing else, he will touch the ball close to 375 times this year. Yes, 375. 300-320 carries with close to 50 receptions. Barring an injury, he is a lock for 1500 total yards. he is also the only guy who can socre Touchdowns in KC besaides Gonzalez and a few by Bowe. 10TD's is a minimum. I honestly see his floor as 50 Rec/1500 total yards/10 TD.(i love LJ and my personal projections are higher than these above)

I don't share your optimism for his TD floor with you or others. I do think he'll get a bunch of yards but the TD's may be tougher to come by IMO. I'm thinking more around 8 or so. He could get 10+ but with that line, and their current QB situation I just think the redzone opp's will be few and far between. When they get there though he will be leaned on heavily.

 

[AB in DC]

One thing's for sure, Herm Edwards will run him into the ground if at all possible.

 

[The Jacket]

I'm going to chime in one final thought concerning Larry Johnson in 2008. It's something I've been unsure about all summer, but have finally made my mind up on: he is hungry to succeed this year. Now, some will just ignore that, laugh it off, crack a joke, make some sarcastic comment, but for me as a guy who's watched every snap of his pro career, what made LJ great was his heart. His passion. His on-field anger. Yeah yeah, the OL and all that jazz, too, but even behind a weak OL he could do some things if he tries. Last year, he simply loafed it. Blocking? Good luck. Running hard? He had 45 million reasons to run like the ##### he did.

I think this year will be different. Instead of settling for a one-yard gain on first-and-10 when the LB hits him in the backfield, I think he'll fight for more yards much more often. Even if it's just a two-yard gain instead, if he does that on half of his carries then you're talking about a whole bunch of extra FF points.

When this season comes, people don't understand how energetic I'm gonna be during this first game. It's gonna be pretty much the most exciting anyone's ever seen me since I started playing for Kansas City, 'cuz this is for me the season to prove myself again. So much has been going on personally in my life and so many naysayers that, I'm just excited, and so much can happen.

Pick it apart, I'm sure "every RB" says it, maybe it won't last, whatever ... I'm no red-roses homer, but I think the guy has heard enough as far as him being some sort of scrub that won't crack a thousand yards. And I didn't necessarily think this a few weeks ago. I've had solid projections for him given that he was on pace for a top 10 finish last year despite a pathetic first eight games, a horrible desire and passion for the game, and a ridiculously tough schedule. Now I've got no reason to think he won't finish top 10 unless he gets another fluke injury.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm going to chime in one final thought concerning Larry Johnson in 2008. It's something I've been unsure about all summer, but have finally made my mind up on: he is hungry to succeed this year. Now, some will just ignore that, laugh it off, crack a joke, make some sarcastic comment, but for me as a guy who's watched every snap of his pro career, what made LJ great was his heart. His passion. His on-field anger. Yeah yeah, the OL and all that jazz, too, but even behind a weak OL he could do some things if he tries. Last year, he simply loafed it. Blocking? Good luck. Running hard? He had 45 million reasons to run like the ##### he did.

I think this year will be different. Instead of settling for a one-yard gain on first-and-10 when the LB hits him in the backfield, I think he'll fight for more yards much more often. Even if it's just a two-yard gain instead, if he does that on half of his carries then you're talking about a whole bunch of extra FF points.

When this season comes, people don't understand how energetic I'm gonna be during this first game. It's gonna be pretty much the most exciting anyone's ever seen me since I started playing for Kansas City, 'cuz this is for me the season to prove myself again. So much has been going on personally in my life and so many naysayers that, I'm just excited, and so much can happen.

Pick it apart, I'm sure "every RB" says it, maybe it won't last, whatever ... I'm no red-roses homer, but I think the guy has heard enough as far as him being some sort of scrub that won't crack a thousand yards. And I didn't necessarily think this a few weeks ago. I've had solid projections for him given that he was on pace for a top 10 finish last year despite a pathetic first eight games, a horrible desire and passion for the game, and a ridiculously tough schedule. Now I've got no reason to think he won't finish top 10 unless he gets another fluke injury.

I agree, and I hope you're right. But I do have to temper my expectations on that offense.

 

[The Jacket]

Absolutely. I've only predicted some 1100 yards (although with some decent receiving numbers mixed in). I just think after everything I've gathered this offseason that he has a high floor (barring injury) and a decent ceiling relative to his ADP.