LB Tiers (6 Viewers)

[StoneyBrook]

Jene, how come you are not buying Kelvin Sheppard? Wanny has said he is going to play the Mike in Buff. Do you see him only being a 2 down guy?

 

[BearsFan]

Jene, how come you are not buying Kelvin Sheppard? Wanny has said he is going to play the Mike in Buff. Do you see him only being a 2 down guy?

See post #92

 

[Jene Bramel]

Is the + behind Butler a result of some news/speculation that he will be on the field on passing downs in 2012 ?

The + notation means he's moved up a tier (roughly) since the previously posted tiers.In this case, that's because I believe he'll be an every-down player this year.

I'm a Butler owner but didn't get to see him in action (difficult to watch games in Australia). Is this ranking based largely on his situation or does he have the skill to keep this type of ranking up regardless of situation down the road?I'm also a McCarthy owner and want to know if the hype around these guys is for real or are they likely to crash and burn if the situation changes. I liked both players enough out of college to draft them in my dynasty IDP rookie drafts, but never expected them to make Tier 1 LB type status in the same region as Willis and Ray Lewis. Every year around this time there are guys at LB overhyped because of situation and short term production. Do they have the skill to continue this long term?

Changes in situation are always a risk. In this case, it's a higher risk for Butler, who may not earn a subpackage role, than McCarthy, who I feel is locked in as the Titans' long term every down MLB. Neither player is a talent on the level of Patrick Willis, but I think both have enough talent to support the upside my tiers are suggesting.

 

[matttyl]

Jene,

How big do you think the gaps between these tiers are going to be? What I mean is - last year for instance - after D'Qwell's amazing season, and maybe London Fletcher right behind him, there were a bunch of LBs all between a point or so per game from one another. The "value" wasn't there like it was in the DL position where Allen and JPP and Suggs blew the doors off of everyone else. Even after those 3 there was another pretty clear "tier" of about 6 or so that gave you a clear advantage over the next group.

Do you again foresee more "value" being in the DLs this year, with less in the LBs, and hardly any in the DBs?

I ask because I currently have Mayo, Beason, Poz and Tulloch. All seem to be very strong options in your list, but none in your top 10. Is it worth it for me to give up something of value (2nd round rookie pick, lower end WR or RB) to "upgrade" my LBs?

 

[Jene Bramel]

How big do you think the gaps between these tiers are going to be?Do you again foresee more "value" being in the DLs this year, with less in the LBs, and hardly any in the DBs?

I try to define and title the tiers so you can estimate the gaps between them. In general, the raw point value gaps are pretty small.I'll have more texture and context to these tiers -- more than just a clinical list -- shortly after the draft as we ramp up to our iPad application release, but my early gut feel is that this is going to be the Year of Value with IDPs. I think the DE group will run deeper than it has in years despite the number of 3-4 fronts. Gut also says that, though the idea that linebackers can be sloughed in favor of defensive line studs is more widespread than ever, we'll still be able to find linebacker values in later rounds. And I think I'll probably argue that the DB group is weaker on top than ever. Still want to see how the draft and first minicamps go, though, before putting together my arguments for 2012.

 

[matttyl]

Big thumbs up on the iPad app....even bigger if you bring an app to the blackberry playbook!

 

[Tick]

It's interesting that you dropped Ruud off the tier jumper list just before he found a decent spot in Seattle. How does his signing put him, and what does it do to KJ Wright?

 

[Jene Bramel]

It's interesting that you dropped Ruud off the tier jumper list just before he found a decent spot in Seattle. How does his signing put him, and what does it do to KJ Wright?

It muddies the picture unfortunately. I think it's a convenient signing -- one year contract for a player the DC knows well on a shallow depth chart -- but I think there is still a good chance they will bring in another backer in the first three rounds.I'm not convinced Ruud starts or plays every down, so he's risky to slot higher than the LB3 tiers. I still think the worst case for Wright may be every-down OLB, so he remains the more stable option.

 

[jacobo_moses]

JEne who has more upside? To have value this year and next?

Wesley Woodyard or Stevenson Sylvester?

I really like what I've read on Sylvester. I think I even read somewhere his coverage skills are a strength. I think that is something Timmons lacks at times. So Sylvester would be good next to Timmmons I think?

I guess how much faith they have in Sylvester was shown by the Steelers not taking a top LB in free agency. As Lofton, Hawthorne and others are all signed now. The next step for Sylvester will be whether or not the Steelers take an LB in the first 3 rounds.

 

[Jene Bramel]

JEne who has more upside? To have value this year and next?Wesley Woodyard or Stevenson Sylvester?

The tiers in this thread are for the 2012 season. I think Woodyard clearly has more value this year. It's closer for 2013, but if you're looking for the highest long term value regardless of risk, I like Stevenson.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Is Johnathan Goff's upside dependent on him re-signing with the Giants or do you just like him as a player? If he leaves do you see Greg Jones as their every down MLB and where would you put him on this list?

Ralph Vacchiano‏@TheBlueScreenReplyJerry Reese was asked who the Giants' MLB would be if they had a game tomorrow. His answer: "I’m not sure." #NYGReese then mentioned three "interesting candidates for that job": Mark Herzlich, Greg Jones and ... Michael Boley. #NYG

With how things ended I think the giants will prolly be looking for another starting quality lb'er but not necessarily a MLB. Boley basically played the role last year with the high amount of nickel they played last year. They played alot due to injury but with how things ended and the fact vick/rg3/romo are in the division big nickel will likely be the base formation anyways

 

[BearsFan]

I've seen more than one report that suggested the Texans' opinion of Sharpton had something to do with the decision to deal Ryans. I'm not sure I'm buying that given that he played less than 100 snaps before tearing a quad tendon last year and didn't set the field on fire before a shoulder injury ended his 2010 season. I think he's the current favorite to play inside next to Cushing, but his upside is limited unless he wins a job on passing downs.

Jene, Who would be the HOU 3-down LBs currently if not Sharpton? I can see Barwin, but Reed?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I've seen more than one report that suggested the Texans' opinion of Sharpton had something to do with the decision to deal Ryans. I'm not sure I'm buying that given that he played less than 100 snaps before tearing a quad tendon last year and didn't set the field on fire before a shoulder injury ended his 2010 season. I think he's the current favorite to play inside next to Cushing, but his upside is limited unless he wins a job on passing downs.

Jene, Who would be the HOU 3-down LBs currently if not Sharpton? I can see Barwin, but Reed?

Houston used a dime package almost exclusively last year. Cushing will be the lone ILB on the field if that holds. Reed played every down with Barwin after Williams' injury last year, usually in a three point stance but not always.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Where does Leroy Hill rank now that he resigned with Seattle? Will he be a starter?

 

[jacobo_moses]

Also Jene assuming for argument sake Rivers is healthy and wins the WLB starting Spot with the G-men?

What is RIvers upside? LB2 most likely?

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Also Jene assuming for argument sake Rivers is healthy and wins the WLB starting Spot with the G-men?What is RIvers upside? LB2 most likely?

LB2 for a guy who won't see nickel snaps is highly unlikely. Boley and Williams will see the nickel

 

[jacobo_moses]

Rivers (6-2, 235) is a weakside linebacker, a spot inhabited by Michael Boley, who is coming off his best season with the Giants. Second-year players Jacquian Williams and Spencer Paysinger also play on the weak wide, making it quite likely if the Giants are adamant about getting their three best linebackers on the field, Boley could be making a move inside to middle linebacker.

The Giants have Mathias Kiwanuka starting at strong side linebacker and there is always a chance he returns to his natural spot at defensive end, although there’s no starting role available.

“This is an excellent opportunity for him to have a fresh start,” Tom Coughlin said. “Keith is versatile enough to play the outside on first and second down and he can play on third down because he runs well. And he’s fast enough to rush the passer.”

Read more: http://www.nypost.co...M#ixzz1rtKaHXa9

Let's be clear. Rivers has plenty of value for fantasy IF he is healthy all year and IF they move Boley inside and use Rivers on the WLB spot. (That is a lot of If's but he is worth taking a risk on I think.) He is a High Risk and High Reward type. If he is healthy I think Jene would agree Rivers is an LB2 most likely

Sorry Charly Coughlin says right there can play on 3rd downs too. So I don't think Rivers is just a 2 Dwn LB. I really don't see any reason if he is healthy why he would be pulled in 3rd down situations.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Where does Leroy Hill rank now that he resigned with Seattle? Will he be a starter?

He has to stay on the roster and win a starting job before I'll put him in my tiers. If he starts, he's a matchup tier player unless/until he plays every down. Even then, I'd have a hard time bumping him out of matchup status.

Also Jene assuming for argument sake Rivers is healthy and wins the WLB starting Spot with the G-men?What is RIvers upside? LB2 most likely?

Coughlin has suggested that Rivers is capable of competing to play in subpackages, but that's different from guaranteeing him the job. Rivers has had major durability issues, was inconsistent playing the run and was not usually a part of the Bengals' nickel in recent years. LB2 is possible, but it's the absolute ceiling and far from a certainty. I'm not confident enough that Rivers will play every down to move him above the tier jumper group myself, but can see the LB3 argument from those who see it that way.

 

[GridironMenace]

Jene, can you shed some light on the Bruce Carter vs. Dan Connor situation in Dallas. I thought Carter was going to be primed for a large role in Dallas this year, but then they went ahead and signed Dan Connor. I always thought that Connor was a liability coverage, so it worries me a little that Connor will start and Carter will be the nickelbacker. I have Bruce Carter on a dynasty team on my rookie squad and trying to figure out if he will have a large enough impact that it would be worth me calling him up to the active roster. Deadline to make that move is approaching. Thoughts on these two?

 

[jacobo_moses]

Where does Leroy Hill rank now that he resigned with Seattle? Will he be a starter?

He has to stay on the roster and win a starting job before I'll put him in my tiers. If he starts, he's a matchup tier player unless/until he plays every down. Even then, I'd have a hard time bumping him out of matchup status.

Also Jene assuming for argument sake Rivers is healthy and wins the WLB starting Spot with the G-men?

What is RIvers upside? LB2 most likely?

Coughlin has suggested that Rivers is capable of competing to play in subpackages, but that's different from guaranteeing him the job. Rivers has had major durability issues, was inconsistent playing the run and was not usually a part of the Bengals' nickel in recent years. LB2 is possible, but it's the absolute ceiling and far from a certainty. I'm not confident enough that Rivers will play every down to move him above the tier jumper group myself, but can see the LB3 argument from those who see it that way.

With how many snaps he got when he was healthy and tackles. It sure seems like he was in on 3rd downs more often then not. I thought I read one of this strengths was coverages in zones and what not. I've just seen Rivers as more then a 2 down thumper i guess from the past when healthy and what Coughlin said.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, can you shed some light on the Bruce Carter vs. Dan Connor situation in Dallas. I thought Carter was going to be primed for a large role in Dallas this year, but then they went ahead and signed Dan Connor. I always thought that Connor was a liability coverage, so it worries me a little that Connor will start and Carter will be the nickelbacker. I have Bruce Carter on a dynasty team on my rookie squad and trying to figure out if he will have a large enough impact that it would be worth me calling him up to the active roster. Deadline to make that move is approaching. Thoughts on these two?

I think the Connor signing was more than just a hedge that Carter won't be ready for a full time role. They targeted Connor relatively early in the process, know exactly what they have in Lee on the weak inside (which is where Carter would have to play) and may have concerns about Carter holding up physically over 800+ snaps inside. Carter had some pass rush to him in college and can cover. He's going to be a strong piece for Ryan's subpackages and we know Ryan likes to matchup with personnel by offensive formation.Though there's still a chance that Carter could explode this summer and force himself into a full time role, it's not good for Carter's immediate upside. Connor hasn't been the most durable LB over his career and it's just a two year contract, so I don't believe Carter should be relegated to a long-term reserve (NFL or fantasy) yet. But temper the expectations for 2012 at least.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Where does Leroy Hill rank now that he resigned with Seattle? Will he be a starter?

He has to stay on the roster and win a starting job before I'll put him in my tiers. If he starts, he's a matchup tier player unless/until he plays every down. Even then, I'd have a hard time bumping him out of matchup status.

Also Jene assuming for argument sake Rivers is healthy and wins the WLB starting Spot with the G-men?

What is RIvers upside? LB2 most likely?

Coughlin has suggested that Rivers is capable of competing to play in subpackages, but that's different from guaranteeing him the job. Rivers has had major durability issues, was inconsistent playing the run and was not usually a part of the Bengals' nickel in recent years. LB2 is possible, but it's the absolute ceiling and far from a certainty. I'm not confident enough that Rivers will play every down to move him above the tier jumper group myself, but can see the LB3 argument from those who see it that way.

With how many snaps he got when he was healthy and tackles. It sure seems like he was in on 3rd downs more often then not. I thought I read one of this strengths was coverages in zones and what not. I've just seen Rivers as more then a 2 down thumper i guess from the past when healthy and what Coughlin said.

Dhani Jones and Brandon Johnson were nearly always the nickel backers in Cincinnati when Rivers was healthy. I certainly wouldn't argue that Rivers is a two-down thumper. He doesn't shed blocks well, he's inconsistent playing downhill and he's an inconsistent tackler. I think it's much more likely that Boley moves inside than Rivers or that the Giants mix and match personnel packages such that Herzlich (or maybe Goff if he's re-signed) gets a situational run defender role inside.

Rivers can run and he's capable of covering the underneath zones, but he's not a world-beater in coverage.

Based on his play and his durability issues, Rivers is going to have to show something on tape before I fully buy in to his NFL or fantasy upside.

 

[jacobo_moses]

You make some valid points Jene on Rivers. I would like to point out that. Having your Jaw shattered by Hines Ward in the first year hardly makes you not durable. (pretty much anyone would have been out 9 or 10 weeks with a messed up Jaw) Yes I know he missed 2 or 3 games each in his 2nd and 3rd year. That isn't that awful though. As far as the Wrist surgery that made him miss all of last year. I don't know the details of that (how it happend or what not so I can't really comment on that)

I'm just saying I think he gets a fresh slate in NY and makes good on it. Just my 2 cents though.

 

[GridironMenace]

Thanks Jene.

Having your Jaw shattered by Hines Ward in the first year hardly makes you not durable. (pretty much anyone would have been out 9 or 10 weeks with a messed up Jaw)

Except for Anquan Boldin who only missed 3 weeks after having his face shattered. He also caught 9 passes for 63 yards and 2 tuddy's in that return game. And for what it is worth, Rivers has had more than enough opportunity in Cincy to have him squarely land on my 'do not draft' board. I'll let someone else take that guy no matter what the value is.

 

[MAC_32]

Obviously a hypothetical, but if the dust settles from the draft and it looks like KJ Wright and Stephen Sylvester could be in line for starting jobs who among the below would be the best trade candidate?

Desmond Bishop

DeMeco Ryans

Donald Butler

KJ Wright

Stephen Sylvester

Also,

Desmond Bishop

Sean Weatherspoon

Pat Angerer

DeAndre Levy

KJ Wright

Akeem Ayers

Both are start 3's, so if I have 5 startable LB's I'd like to deal one of them to fix problems on offense or add picks. Just trying to get a head start in planning since both of my rookie drafts are quickly after the draft.

 

[Cipherchris]

Obviously a hypothetical, but if the dust settles from the draft and it looks like KJ Wright and Stephen Sylvester could be in line for starting jobs who among the below would be the best trade candidate? Desmond BishopDeMeco RyansDonald ButlerKJ WrightStephen SylvesterAlso, Desmond BishopSean WeatherspoonPat AngererDeAndre LevyKJ WrightAkeem AyersBoth are start 3's, so if I have 5 startable LB's I'd like to deal one of them to fix problems on offense or add picks. Just trying to get a head start in planning since both of my rookie drafts are quickly after the draft.

I would probably say Butler, Ryans make decent trade bait, but value is probably low for ButlerSecond team, you want to get rid of Ayers or Levy. Maybe Wright if you can get something good for him.

 

[jhexel]

Any hope for those of us who have been holding onth Sergio Kindle to see if he'd be able to come back to be the player the Ravens targeted when they drafted him?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Any hope for those of us who have been holding onth Sergio Kindle to see if he'd be able to come back to be the player the Ravens targeted when they drafted him?

Extremely slim hope, even in big play scoring systems.

 

[Ian F]

Jene, can you shed some light on the Bruce Carter vs. Dan Connor situation in Dallas. I thought Carter was going to be primed for a large role in Dallas this year, but then they went ahead and signed Dan Connor. I always thought that Connor was a liability coverage, so it worries me a little that Connor will start and Carter will be the nickelbacker. I have Bruce Carter on a dynasty team on my rookie squad and trying to figure out if he will have a large enough impact that it would be worth me calling him up to the active roster. Deadline to make that move is approaching. Thoughts on these two?

I think the Connor signing was more than just a hedge that Carter won't be ready for a full time role. They targeted Connor relatively early in the process, know exactly what they have in Lee on the weak inside (which is where Carter would have to play) and may have concerns about Carter holding up physically over 800+ snaps inside. Carter had some pass rush to him in college and can cover. He's going to be a strong piece for Ryan's subpackages and we know Ryan likes to matchup with personnel by offensive formation.Though there's still a chance that Carter could explode this summer and force himself into a full time role, it's not good for Carter's immediate upside. Connor hasn't been the most durable LB over his career and it's just a two year contract, so I don't believe Carter should be relegated to a long-term reserve (NFL or fantasy) yet. But temper the expectations for 2012 at least.

How confident are you that there is no big impact on Lee's everydown role and production?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, can you shed some light on the Bruce Carter vs. Dan Connor situation in Dallas. I thought Carter was going to be primed for a large role in Dallas this year, but then they went ahead and signed Dan Connor. I always thought that Connor was a liability coverage, so it worries me a little that Connor will start and Carter will be the nickelbacker. I have Bruce Carter on a dynasty team on my rookie squad and trying to figure out if he will have a large enough impact that it would be worth me calling him up to the active roster. Deadline to make that move is approaching. Thoughts on these two?

I think the Connor signing was more than just a hedge that Carter won't be ready for a full time role. They targeted Connor relatively early in the process, know exactly what they have in Lee on the weak inside (which is where Carter would have to play) and may have concerns about Carter holding up physically over 800+ snaps inside. Carter had some pass rush to him in college and can cover. He's going to be a strong piece for Ryan's subpackages and we know Ryan likes to matchup with personnel by offensive formation.Though there's still a chance that Carter could explode this summer and force himself into a full time role, it's not good for Carter's immediate upside. Connor hasn't been the most durable LB over his career and it's just a two year contract, so I don't believe Carter should be relegated to a long-term reserve (NFL or fantasy) yet. But temper the expectations for 2012 at least.

How confident are you that there is no big impact on Lee's everydown role and production?

Pretty confident.I see tackle production as a triangle of sorts in the back seven. If there's less than three strong tacklers in the back seven, I'll give an opportunity bump to the likely top statistical options -- see D'Qwell Jackson for instance. If there are more than three strong options, there's reason for concern, depending on how strong the competition is and how many snaps the defense will be on the field. If the situation is right (good scheme, above-average snap counts, etc), I'm not bothered by two strong linebackers and a secondary player competing for the same tackles in the box. The Connor/Carter platoon may prove more effective than last year's Cowboy defenders, but there's still not a consistently strong option in the secondary to hurt Lee's opportunity significantly. Maybe Lee won't get a look at an elite tackle count (110+ solos), but this move doesn't cap his ceiling at 90 solos either.

 

[Gridiron Gang]

Jene

You have KJ Wright jumping up the tiers significantly now that Hawthrone has signed with the Saints. What kind of production are you expecting from him this year? Should we be grabbing him now if he is still on the waiver wire?

 

[Jene Bramel]

JeneYou have KJ Wright jumping up the tiers significantly now that Hawthrone has signed with the Saints. What kind of production are you expecting from him this year? Should we be grabbing him now if he is still on the waiver wire?

The Barrett Ruud signing happened after the most recent update. That throws a wrench into my LB2 expectation, which assumed that Wright would be an every-down MLB barring the selection of a linebacker in the early rounds of this draft. I think the Ruud signing suggests that the team prefers Wright outside and gives them options to shop for a linebacker prospect at value in the 2nd or 3rd round.I think Wright still has a chance at an every-down role, but it seems unlikely that it'll be at MLB now. Today, that'd probably drop him into the matchup LB3 tier. That's enough upside to warrant a roster spots in leagues that roster 50 or more linebackers. I wouldn't move on Ruud until it's confirmed that he's starting, potentially in line for a subpackage role and not likely to be pressed by an strong prospect. His current situation is arguably more questionable than it was last year in Tennessee.

 

[MAC_32]

JeneYou have KJ Wright jumping up the tiers significantly now that Hawthrone has signed with the Saints. What kind of production are you expecting from him this year? Should we be grabbing him now if he is still on the waiver wire?

The Barrett Ruud signing happened after the most recent update. That throws a wrench into my LB2 expectation, which assumed that Wright would be an every-down MLB barring the selection of a linebacker in the early rounds of this draft. I think the Ruud signing suggests that the team prefers Wright outside and gives them options to shop for a linebacker prospect at value in the 2nd or 3rd round.I think Wright still has a chance at an every-down role, but it seems unlikely that it'll be at MLB now. Today, that'd probably drop him into the matchup LB3 tier. That's enough upside to warrant a roster spots in leagues that roster 50 or more linebackers. I wouldn't move on Ruud until it's confirmed that he's starting, potentially in line for a subpackage role and not likely to be pressed by an strong prospect. His current situation is arguably more questionable than it was last year in Tennessee.

As a Wright owner I was encouraged by the Ruud signing. What about this angle?Ruud's being brought in as competition for the MIKE role as a plan B in case Wright doesn't step up in camp but if Wright takes the bull by the horns the job is his? While he's a fantasy asset, Ruud's a mediocre real life MIKE LB. Maybe the Hawks picked up Ruud because they don't intend to look at MIKE backers early in the draft?I think a top 75 MIKE backer would be picked up with the intentions on taking the job, but signing Ruud changes everything. I would hope Seattle just sees him as a quality bench MIKE, he's just not that good.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Jene, As a long-time viewer of these forums (but someone who has posted very infrequently), I'd like to say that your IDP knowledge is appreciated, and in my opinion, ranks second to none. Quick question regarding James Anderson... The last two seasons, depending on scoring, he's been a top 5-10 scoring LB. Is it safe to say, based on where he falls in your rankings, that you have tempered expectations for him this season? In other words, do you think it is likely that he falls below the top 5-10 range this year, or that he does not produce at the same level as he has the past two seasons? If so, any insight as to why you feel that may be the case?

 

[Jene Bramel]

JeneYou have KJ Wright jumping up the tiers significantly now that Hawthrone has signed with the Saints. What kind of production are you expecting from him this year? Should we be grabbing him now if he is still on the waiver wire?

The Barrett Ruud signing happened after the most recent update. That throws a wrench into my LB2 expectation, which assumed that Wright would be an every-down MLB barring the selection of a linebacker in the early rounds of this draft. I think the Ruud signing suggests that the team prefers Wright outside and gives them options to shop for a linebacker prospect at value in the 2nd or 3rd round.I think Wright still has a chance at an every-down role, but it seems unlikely that it'll be at MLB now. Today, that'd probably drop him into the matchup LB3 tier. That's enough upside to warrant a roster spots in leagues that roster 50 or more linebackers. I wouldn't move on Ruud until it's confirmed that he's starting, potentially in line for a subpackage role and not likely to be pressed by an strong prospect. His current situation is arguably more questionable than it was last year in Tennessee.

As a Wright owner I was encouraged by the Ruud signing. What about this angle?Ruud's being brought in as competition for the MIKE role as a plan B in case Wright doesn't step up in camp but if Wright takes the bull by the horns the job is his? While he's a fantasy asset, Ruud's a mediocre real life MIKE LB. Maybe the Hawks picked up Ruud because they don't intend to look at MIKE backers early in the draft?I think a top 75 MIKE backer would be picked up with the intentions on taking the job, but signing Ruud changes everything. I would hope Seattle just sees him as a quality bench MIKE, he's just not that good.

I agree with your overall assessment of Ruud, but the confounding factor is defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who coached Ruud in Tampa Bay in a similar scheme. That's not to say that Bradley feels that Ruud is the same player he was 3-4 years ago, just that the timing and location of the Ruud signing is hard to dismiss as purely a depth/hedge. The local buzz also seems to be that Wright is still ticketed to play SLB, too.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Quick question regarding James Anderson... The last two seasons, depending on scoring, he's been a top 5-10 scoring LB. Is it safe to say, based on where he falls in your rankings, that you have tempered expectations for him this season? In other words, do you think it is likely that he falls below the top 5-10 range this year, or that he does not produce at the same level as he has the past two seasons? If so, any insight as to why you feel that may be the case?

I think OLBs -- in contrast to the Sean Lee/triangle discussion a few posts earlier -- are a little more sensitive to competition and surrounding cast issues. It has to be a special situation -- Derrick Brooks, Keith Bulluck, etc -- for me to feel comfortable projecting an OLB to repeated top ten seasons. I like Anderson, but both Beason and Davis could be back, the every-down roles may be unsettled and there's been buzz that the Panthers may have interest in Kuechly. That buzz probably has more to do with concerns over Beason's health (or that TD can't be counted on to step in at OLB again), but it's another body with every-down ability. And there's still a potential hybrid formation in the Rivera/McDermott playbook (where Anderson plays SOLB at times) to consider.Anderson, as an every-down OLB, belongs in the same range as guys like Greenway and Weatherspoon. I may be too cautious here, but I'm not yet confident enough in his 2012 situation to slot him there.

 

[Gridiron Godfather]

Jene you are the MAN!

Your guidance on IDP has been invaluable.

Our league has its rookie draft Tues April 24th before the NFL draft....I know, terrible setup.

But I'm looking at Luke Kuechly.

Since I won't know his actual landing spot before I draft, what tier of your LB rankings do you think he could slot into this year in a best case scenario? I'm just trying to gauge his upside.

Any of the other rookie LB's you feel could slot in that same range or are they all below?

 

[Golden Gopher]

Quick question regarding James Anderson... The last two seasons, depending on scoring, he's been a top 5-10 scoring LB. Is it safe to say, based on where he falls in your rankings, that you have tempered expectations for him this season? In other words, do you think it is likely that he falls below the top 5-10 range this year, or that he does not produce at the same level as he has the past two seasons? If so, any insight as to why you feel that may be the case?

I think OLBs -- in contrast to the Sean Lee/triangle discussion a few posts earlier -- are a little more sensitive to competition and surrounding cast issues. It has to be a special situation -- Derrick Brooks, Keith Bulluck, etc -- for me to feel comfortable projecting an OLB to repeated top ten seasons. I like Anderson, but both Beason and Davis could be back, the every-down roles may be unsettled and there's been buzz that the Panthers may have interest in Kuechly. That buzz probably has more to do with concerns over Beason's health (or that TD can't be counted on to step in at OLB again), but it's another body with every-down ability. And there's still a potential hybrid formation in the Rivera/McDermott playbook (where Anderson plays SOLB at times) to consider.Anderson, as an every-down OLB, belongs in the same range as guys like Greenway and Weatherspoon. I may be too cautious here, but I'm not yet confident enough in his 2012 situation to slot him there.

Pretty much what I was thinking, and your response makes perfect sense. Basically, there's no specific reason (or change that has taken place) to make me think he won't repeat the last two years (in terms of productivity), but there are enough factors/questions in play that there's no reason to assume he will, either. In fact, if I were to bet, one way or the other, I'd say he drops somewhat, only because (like you said) there has to be a certain set of special circumstances (which are continuously evolving, even as the season progresses) for an OLB to be top 10... a perfect storm, so to speak. It's hard enough for a LB, much less an OLB, to be top-ten, much less two years running. To do so three years in a row would be surprising/unlikely, if for no other reason than that the odds of it happening are slim. Thank you.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene you are the MAN!Your guidance on IDP has been invaluable.Our league has its rookie draft Tues April 24th before the NFL draft....I know, terrible setup.But I'm looking at Luke Kuechly. Since I won't know his actual landing spot before I draft, what tier of your LB rankings do you think he could slot into this year in a best case scenario? I'm just trying to gauge his upside.Any of the other rookie LB's you feel could slot in that same range or are they all below?

Why April 24th? I'm all for rewarding those who do the prep work, but that's more punishment than reward.I've just begun posting capsules of my feelings on this year's linebacker class in the draft thread. There are lots of every-down prospects this year, all of whom could have LB2 or better upside in the right situation. Kuechly is probably the only pre-draft sure every-down starter in 2012.Bloom is much bolder than I am and has already ranked his top 100 fantasy rookies, including IDP. 1-50 and 51-100 are posted on the front page (and in the draft thread) if you've yet to see them.

 

[rlwomack]

Jene

You have KJ Wright jumping up the tiers significantly now that Hawthrone has signed with the Saints. What kind of production are you expecting from him this year? Should we be grabbing him now if he is still on the waiver wire?

The Barrett Ruud signing happened after the most recent update. That throws a wrench into my LB2 expectation, which assumed that Wright would be an every-down MLB barring the selection of a linebacker in the early rounds of this draft. I think the Ruud signing suggests that the team prefers Wright outside and gives them options to shop for a linebacker prospect at value in the 2nd or 3rd round.I think Wright still has a chance at an every-down role, but it seems unlikely that it'll be at MLB now. Today, that'd probably drop him into the matchup LB3 tier. That's enough upside to warrant a roster spots in leagues that roster 50 or more linebackers. I wouldn't move on Ruud until it's confirmed that he's starting, potentially in line for a subpackage role and not likely to be pressed by an strong prospect. His current situation is arguably more questionable than it was last year in Tennessee.

As a Wright owner I was encouraged by the Ruud signing. What about this angle?Ruud's being brought in as competition for the MIKE role as a plan B in case Wright doesn't step up in camp but if Wright takes the bull by the horns the job is his? While he's a fantasy asset, Ruud's a mediocre real life MIKE LB. Maybe the Hawks picked up Ruud because they don't intend to look at MIKE backers early in the draft?

I think a top 75 MIKE backer would be picked up with the intentions on taking the job, but signing Ruud changes everything. I would hope Seattle just sees him as a quality bench MIKE, he's just not that good.

I agree with your overall assessment of Ruud, but the confounding factor is defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who coached Ruud in Tampa Bay in a similar scheme. That's not to say that Bradley feels that Ruud is the same player he was 3-4 years ago, just that the timing and location of the Ruud signing is hard to dismiss as purely a depth/hedge. The local buzz also seems to be that Wright is still ticketed to play SLB, too.

Sounding like Seattle is leaning toward starting Ruud in the middle but not for every down. Seahawks leaning toward Ruud awakening at MLB spot

 

[StoneyBrook]

Jene, there were some early rumbles that QBlack was lining up at MLB for the Bucs(Foster at WLB). Then reports came out that MFoster was actually seeing work at MLB after the first day. How do you see this playing out and regardless of position do you think MFoster is a 3 down LB?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, there were some early rumbles that QBlack was lining up at MLB for the Bucs(Foster at WLB). Then reports came out that MFoster was actually seeing work at MLB after the first day. How do you see this playing out and regardless of position do you think MFoster is a 3 down LB?

The Buccaneers are a serious threat to look at a linebacker early in the draft. Foster's tape wasn't great against the run last year and he was inconsistent against the pass, too (not that Black was much better). I think Schiano is taking a look at both players to see which fits his scheme better. As it stands now, I think Black and Foster would play every down, with Foster inside. But I think there are still changes to come to the linebacking group.

 

[GridironMenace]

Jene, is it true that Kam Chancellor is going to come down to play the Mike in the nickel?

 

[Tick]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/rapid-reports/post/18713118

Vilma restructured.

 

[saintfool]

Jene, is it true that Kam Chancellor is going to come down to play the Mike in the nickel?

read that somewhere too. ruud isn't a 3-down LB in this system apparently.

 

[sdseagles]

I think it's much more likely that Boley moves inside than Rivers or that the Giants mix and match personnel packages such that Herzlich (or maybe Goff if he's re-signed) gets a situational run defender role inside.

This is more crystal ball than anything else, but how do you view Mark Herzlich's long-term prospects? Both this year and in the future? The dude was a stud prior to his illness and were it not for that illness he likely would have been one of the top prospects to come out. Any chance the G-Men give this kid a fair shot at a starting spot, perhaps even MIKE?Thanks Jene. Good stuff as always

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, is it true that Kam Chancellor is going to come down to play the Mike in the nickel?

That PFW note was confusing, even if you read the primary source. At no point last year was Chancellor regularly playing inside linebacker in the nickel package. There were times where he'd play in the box in subpackages, but it wasn't a common occurrence. And I wouldn't argue that he replaced Hawthorne necessarily.That's not to say that, in a Big Nickel front, that Chancellor couldn't be considered the better run stopper of those on the current depth chart and play the more inside of the linebacker roles in that alignment.

I'd take that blurb to be a different way of saying what we already know: Chancellor is a very strong run defender who has some coverage skills. Whenever possible, the Seahawks are going to use him in and around the box. I wouldn't expect to see him play an in-the-box SS role on base downs, then a traditional ILB-like role in the nickel.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think it's much more likely that Boley moves inside than Rivers or that the Giants mix and match personnel packages such that Herzlich (or maybe Goff if he's re-signed) gets a situational run defender role inside.

This is more crystal ball than anything else, but how do you view Mark Herzlich's long-term prospects? Both this year and in the future? The dude was a stud prior to his illness and were it not for that illness he likely would have been one of the top prospects to come out. Any chance the G-Men give this kid a fair shot at a starting spot, perhaps even MIKE?Thanks Jene. Good stuff as always

I don't think Herzlich is an ILB. He struggled there last year, both shedding blocks and reading the run. I think the Giants -- barring an early draft pick -- will give him another chance to improve there and he might grow into a decent between-the-tackles ILB. But he's not going to be a rangy defender and he's unlikely to contribute much in coverage. With the current group of pass rushers, he's likely to follow the path of Clint Sintim, another pass rusher that they tried to grow into more of an all-around linebacker.

 

[Gridiron Gang]

Jene

Bruce Carter vs Nate Irving. If you had one spot on your bench to develop a LB, which one would you choose?

 

[voiceofunreason]

Was hoping Beason would bounce back. Looks like a mess for him and doesn't help Anderson either. Guess I'll hold and hope.