Leagues with all TDs are 6pts (1 Viewer)

[smogroller]

In my 10 team non PPR league, I've noticed teams with an elite QB usually do pretty well. I have always gone with the strategy to draft a QB late, with varying results. With all TDs, including passing TDs worth 6 pts, does this make drafting an elite QB more important, or are there enough mid level QBs this year to do a QB by committee approach?

 

[Cassius]

You're asking if making QB's score more points makes it more important to have a QB that scores more points?

 

[whodeywhodey]

IMO, yes.

 

[ft_ball_fn]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.

IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.

Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

 

[Avery]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

 

[Chaka]

No

 

[kutta]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

But relative to the other positions, QB's become more valuable. If QB TD's were worth 20 points each, everyone would want a top guy because one more TD per week makes a big difference. If QB TD's were worth one point each, no one would draft a QB until the last round because their points don't matter much. Moving from four to six points for QB TD's does boost the value of "sure-thing" QB's who throw a lot of TD's.

 

[billyjohnson]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

Never quite bought into this rationale. If you increase TDs to 6 pts...then that increases the point gap even more between a 33 TD quarterback and a 25 TD quarterback. Just imagine you increase TDs to 100 points. Would you still say all QBs are the same?

 

[Pnishthm]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

Never quite bought into this rationale. If you increase TDs to 6 pts...then that increases the point gap even more between a 33 TD quarterback and a 25 TD quarterback. Just imagine you increase TDs to 100 points. Would you still say all QBs are the same?

For some reason I seem to value QBs more when TDs are worth 6 pts as opposed to 4. However when you have a QB that throws for 33 TDs and one that throws for 25 TDs that's an 8 TD difference at two extra pts per TD which comes out to an extra 16 pts which is 1 pt per week difference. Not really that much of a difference to value them much more than usual I guess.

 

[saintsfan1977]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

Never quite bought into this rationale. If you increase TDs to 6 pts...then that increases the point gap even more between a 33 TD quarterback and a 25 TD quarterback. Just imagine you increase TDs to 100 points. Would you still say all QBs are the same?

For some reason I seem to value QBs more when TDs are worth 6 pts as opposed to 4. However when you have a QB that throws for 33 TDs and one that throws for 25 TDs that's an 8 TD difference at two extra pts per TD which comes out to an extra 16 pts which is 1 pt per week difference. Not really that much of a difference to value them much more than usual I guess.

Spot on. In my league all TD's are 6 pts but QBs are awarded anywhere from 10-12 points for completion percentage. More than 10 QBs a year throw for 60% completion percentage. Without that bonus though the QB position is still the same. Its all relative to the other positions and not worth more. If you take Brees or Rodgers with the 1st overall pick, Your RBs will suffer because oF it.In my league the top 10 QBs are gone within the first 3-4 rounds. I am usuallly forced to take a QB nobody wants but I look for one with potential to be top 10 maybe top 5 and roll with the rest of my studs.

 

[gethugefast1]

Our league give 4 points per passing TD and no negative points for turnovers(interceptions & fumbles lost). Thus i'm targeting Cutler late.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

It DOES make QB's more valuable in comparison to other positions but I'm not so sure you need to sell out to get a top guy. QB's are pretty close stats wise now days.

 

[Keith1]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

Agree here, but in my 6 point passing TD-league those elite QBs get snapped up MUCH earlier. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. By the time I pick in the 3rd round (pick # 31), there is no doubt that Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Schaub and Brady will be gone (possibly Rivers too). So unless I take Rodgers with the # 7 pick, I am going to have to reach for either Romo, Schaub or Brady in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Or cross my fingers and hold my breath that Rivers falls to me in the 3rd.

 

[zoonation]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

you didn't really think this through.

 

[Avery]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

you didn't really think this through.

To clarify when I said all QB are worth about the same I meant in a 4 vs 6 TD point league... not that Payton Manning is worth the same as Trent Edwards... I hope you understood that.

 

[brett5673]

someone just looked into this on fantasy football cafe. With 4 points a TD, from top QB to 10th QB, there was a 93 point difference, with 6 points a TD, there was a 100 point difference, so 7 netdifference Usually with late QB picking, you get two guys and hope one pans out to be in top 10, so if you are asking if the point difference changes things, then no, it really doesnt. In 08 I was in a league with 6 point TDs, I waited late for Cutler and I had an overall strong team and won the league

 

[zoonation]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

you didn't really think this through.

To clarify when I said all QB are worth about the same I meant in a 4 vs 6 TD point league... not that Payton Manning is worth the same as Trent Edwards... I hope you understood that.

I did. However, getting two extra points means that a guy who throws 30 TDs has more relative value than a guy who throws 16 TDs. You get that, right?

 

[Avery]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

you didn't really think this through.

To clarify when I said all QB are worth about the same I meant in a 4 vs 6 TD point league... not that Payton Manning is worth the same as Trent Edwards... I hope you understood that.

I did. However, getting two extra points means that a guy who throws 30 TDs has more relative value than a guy who throws 16 TDs. You get that, right?

Relatively, it's the same ratio of point from 30 TD to 16 TDs; 1:0.875.Absolutely, bump QBs a touch but not much since all QB benefit from the higher TD points.

You get that, right?

 

[zoonation]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

you didn't really think this through.

To clarify when I said all QB are worth about the same I meant in a 4 vs 6 TD point league... not that Payton Manning is worth the same as Trent Edwards... I hope you understood that.

I did. However, getting two extra points means that a guy who throws 30 TDs has more relative value than a guy who throws 16 TDs. You get that, right?

Relatively, it's the same ratio of point from 30 TD to 16 TDs; 1:0.875.Absolutely, bump QBs a touch but not much since all QB benefit from the higher TD points.

You get that, right?

I guess you don't get it.but, don't take my word for it, go see how 6 points impacts the elite QBs ADP compared to an average QBs. FBGs has a tool for that.

16 tds at 4 pts = 64 points. 30tds = 120

pts.

16 at 6 = 96. 30 at 6 = 180

much larger delta.

 

[da_budman]

I would argue that it actually bumps Qb's DOWN a slight bit (especially in leagues which switch from 4 pts per td to 6 pts per td) and the reason is because people assume it is a huge deal and draft them way too early because of it.

In reality the bump from 4 to 6 isn't that big given that it is all relative and only part of the equation. To figure it all out you have to take into consideration the drop off between the qb you drafted in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round versus the 6th,7th,8th round and weigh that difference against the player you drafted in the 1st,2nd,or 3rd instead of the one you eventually got in the 6th,7th, or 8th. I think when you weigh it all out drafting a qb early is a poor choice unless you play in 2 qb leagues. The value is just not there because of the relative value of qb's versus scarcity and drop off.

 

[da_budman]

To the discussion about the delta discussion between a 16 td qb and a 30 td qb: (quote limit issues...grrrrr)

Yeah and if you pick a starting qb that passes for only 13 td's its an even much larger delta. My point is if you settle on a qb that throws only 16 td's this discussion is meaningless because you aren't going to win your league anyway. 16 td's put you at qb 22 last year, barely a backup. The relative number should be 21 or 22 imo. qb 13-15, followed by another qb in the same range.

Pick 2 of those with upside and one very might well break out to be qb 7-10 or at worst QBBC qb 7-10. Now we are looking at 26-27 td's from our scrubs and a lessened chance of our team going down the toilet because of injury at qb.

I like those odds.

One time in my life I drafted a qb in round 1 and it was the year after Brady had his record setting year. Yep Brady went down week 1 and my season was toast. Never again.

 

[Avery]

you didn't really think this through.

To clarify when I said all QB are worth about the same I meant in a 4 vs 6 TD point league... not that Payton Manning is worth the same as Trent Edwards... I hope you understood that.

I did. However, getting two extra points means that a guy who throws 30 TDs has more relative value than a guy who throws 16 TDs. You get that, right?

Relatively, it's the same ratio of point from 30 TD to 16 TDs; 1:0.875.Absolutely, bump QBs a touch but not much since all QB benefit from the higher TD points.You get that, right?

I guess you don't get it.but, don't take my word for it, go see how 6 points impacts the elite QBs ADP compared to an average QBs. FBGs has a tool for that.16 tds at 4 pts = 64 points. 30tds = 120 pts.16 at 6 = 96. 30 at 6 = 180much larger delta.

No need to continue to talk down to me like you are privy to some sort of great knowledge that is above my head. We should be having a reasonable discussion here.I do agree that it does bump up high TD QBs up the draft board a bit in comparison to the other positions, but because the QB position ranking do not change much relative to themselves, I think it is not the major shift that many here are supposing it is.So perhaps I overstated my case when I said at first it doesn't make a difference. I think it doesn't make a big difference is how I rank.

 

[kutta]

I don't think anyone is saying it is a MAJOR difference. But it does affect the rankings and increases the relative value of QB's to other positions. How much so depends on your individual rankings and projections. If we can agree on that, then I think we're good.

 

[Ray_T]

If all TD's are worth 6 points, then QB's will be more valueable.

The question is to what degree.

in this format, I would expect the top 2 or 3 QB's have a chance of going in the first round. But in most cases, I would bet you could get one of the top 3 QB's early in round 2.

I would not go and grab a QB if you have one of the top 5 picks in the draft (I'd save that one for a RB if you had it) but if drafting at slot 8 or 9 I'd definitely give some thought to drafting a QB.

but this will also depend on your other scoring rules in your league. If it is a PPR league, then the strategy I just discussed would not work because the PPR would more or less offset the 6 pt TD for QB's TD passes.

either way, with these rules, I'd say the general rule of thumb would be that allowing 6 points for all TD's would move the average draft position of most QB's up by about 8-10 spots.

of course this number would vary a bit from one QB to the next based on the number of TD passes you would expect the QB to throw.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Of course it does.

Let's say in any given week that you and your opponents QBs both throw for 250 yards and 0 picks. However, your QB throws 4 TDs and your opponents QB throws 2 TDs.

In a 4 point per TD league, your opponent has to make up 8 points from their other positions.

In a 6 point per TD league, your opponent has to make up 12 points from their other positions.

It may not be the biggest factor in determininig the outcome of the game, but it definitely makes a difference. That's an extra 5 catches (ppr), 50 yards, 1 TD, 2FGs.... from your other roster spots.

 

[ft_ball_fn]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

Agree here, but in my 6 point passing TD-league those elite QBs get snapped up MUCH earlier. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. By the time I pick in the 3rd round (pick # 31), there is no doubt that Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Schaub and Brady will be gone (possibly Rivers too). So unless I take Rodgers with the # 7 pick, I am going to have to reach for either Romo, Schaub or Brady in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Or cross my fingers and hold my breath that Rivers falls to me in the 3rd.

My league is 6 per QB TD... Brees and Rogers will be gone in the second (hoping one in the first). Usually a QB I listed lasts till rnd 4 (note I pick 8.. so I'm start of rnd 4. I go QB rnd 4 because they don't make it back to me).IF my league drafted how yours does.. I'd draft solid QB's late and crank out solid picks while all the QB's fly off the board... that means RB and WR you could own the top picks... and draft prospects like Ryan, Favre (who's going later) Flacco, the CHI QB (& Mollesterburger really late) after locking up the best WR and RB's.

 

[RamMan]

How about in an auction league? I'm in a $200 cap league (with 6 pts for passing TD's) and our league has always, in my opinion, undervalued top QB's. The top RB's usually go for $65 - $80, the top QB's for around $35 - $40. I realize that the need for 2 RB's in the starting lineup (as apposed to 1 QB) make top RB's more scarce and therefore valuable, but the relative price for top QB's vs top RB's seems out of wack to me. I may just go for a Brees or Rogers this year - espceially given the numnber of viable RB #2's this year.

 

[puckalicious]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

Agree here, but in my 6 point passing TD-league those elite QBs get snapped up MUCH earlier. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. By the time I pick in the 3rd round (pick # 31), there is no doubt that Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Schaub and Brady will be gone (possibly Rivers too). So unless I take Rodgers with the # 7 pick, I am going to have to reach for either Romo, Schaub or Brady in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Or cross my fingers and hold my breath that Rivers falls to me in the 3rd.

My league is 6 per QB TD... Brees and Rogers will be gone in the second (hoping one in the first). Usually a QB I listed lasts till rnd 4 (note I pick 8.. so I'm start of rnd 4. I go QB rnd 4 because they don't make it back to me).IF my league drafted how yours does.. I'd draft solid QB's late and crank out solid picks while all the QB's fly off the board... that means RB and WR you could own the top picks... and draft prospects like Ryan, Favre (who's going later) Flacco, the CHI QB (& Mollesterburger really late) after locking up the best WR and RB's.

Similar situation in my main money league, we've had 6pt QB TD's for 10 years and don't think we've ever had 1st QB taken in first round, well maybe Manning was once or twice back a few years ago. Lately it seems like so many QB's have the potential to be #1 that it's not worth reaching for them regardless of scoring system, just wait until 4-5 are gone and take the next one.

 

[LittlePhatty]

In my 10 team

^ This makes more of a difference than the extra 2 point TDs.I'll say the same thing I said when this question was asked a month ago. League size is a much bigger factor. In a 10 team, it won't be hard to grab a QB late that can compete with Brees/Rodgers. In a 16 team league having an elite QB really separates you from the guys who waited until later rounds. Adjust gradually for 12 team and 14 team leagues.

 

[Keith1]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

Agree here, but in my 6 point passing TD-league those elite QBs get snapped up MUCH earlier. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. By the time I pick in the 3rd round (pick # 31), there is no doubt that Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Schaub and Brady will be gone (possibly Rivers too). So unless I take Rodgers with the # 7 pick, I am going to have to reach for either Romo, Schaub or Brady in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Or cross my fingers and hold my breath that Rivers falls to me in the 3rd.

My league is 6 per QB TD... Brees and Rogers will be gone in the second (hoping one in the first). Usually a QB I listed lasts till rnd 4 (note I pick 8.. so I'm start of rnd 4. I go QB rnd 4 because they don't make it back to me).IF my league drafted how yours does.. I'd draft solid QB's late and crank out solid picks while all the QB's fly off the board... that means RB and WR you could own the top picks... and draft prospects like Ryan, Favre (who's going later) Flacco, the CHI QB (& Mollesterburger really late) after locking up the best WR and RB's.

Similar situation in my main money league, we've had 6pt QB TD's for 10 years and don't think we've ever had 1st QB taken in first round, well maybe Manning was once or twice back a few years ago. Lately it seems like so many QB's have the potential to be #1 that it's not worth reaching for them regardless of scoring system, just wait until 4-5 are gone and take the next one.

My problem is that I will not be able to get an elite QB if I wait til the 4th/5th rounds. And while I'd like to think waiting on a QB is the way to go, every year in my league it seems that 3 of the 4 semi-final playoff teams are those teams that grabbed the elite QBs. I'm either going to have to grab Rodgers/Brees in the 1st round; Romo/Schaub in the 2nd or hope and pray to get Rivers in the 3rd. If not, then someone in my league will likely reach for Cutler, and then I am left with guys like Flacco, Eli, Ryan, etc...

 

[Ray_T]

I think 6 pt QB td's make getting a top tier QB a must have.IMO the price for Brees/Rogers is still too high because you give up an elite WR or RB to get them in the first round. But--in round 4-5 (depending on your draft spot) you get someone from the next tier... Brady, Romo, Schaub, Rivers, (usually Manning is gone in the 3rd). Getting one of these guys that produces 2 TD's a week (usually) is crucial to winning.Not that you can't get lucky and get a QB late who produces at the top (Favre/Schaub last year) but I don't want to risk it... I get a lock to be in the top 5.

Agree here, but in my 6 point passing TD-league those elite QBs get snapped up MUCH earlier. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. By the time I pick in the 3rd round (pick # 31), there is no doubt that Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Romo, Schaub and Brady will be gone (possibly Rivers too). So unless I take Rodgers with the # 7 pick, I am going to have to reach for either Romo, Schaub or Brady in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Or cross my fingers and hold my breath that Rivers falls to me in the 3rd.

My league is 6 per QB TD... Brees and Rogers will be gone in the second (hoping one in the first). Usually a QB I listed lasts till rnd 4 (note I pick 8.. so I'm start of rnd 4. I go QB rnd 4 because they don't make it back to me).IF my league drafted how yours does.. I'd draft solid QB's late and crank out solid picks while all the QB's fly off the board... that means RB and WR you could own the top picks... and draft prospects like Ryan, Favre (who's going later) Flacco, the CHI QB (& Mollesterburger really late) after locking up the best WR and RB's.

Similar situation in my main money league, we've had 6pt QB TD's for 10 years and don't think we've ever had 1st QB taken in first round, well maybe Manning was once or twice back a few years ago. Lately it seems like so many QB's have the potential to be #1 that it's not worth reaching for them regardless of scoring system, just wait until 4-5 are gone and take the next one.

My problem is that I will not be able to get an elite QB if I wait til the 4th/5th rounds. And while I'd like to think waiting on a QB is the way to go, every year in my league it seems that 3 of the 4 semi-final playoff teams are those teams that grabbed the elite QBs. I'm either going to have to grab Rodgers/Brees in the 1st round; Romo/Schaub in the 2nd or hope and pray to get Rivers in the 3rd. If not, then someone in my league will likely reach for Cutler, and then I am left with guys like Flacco, Eli, Ryan, etc...

Well, the best thing you can do is not panic. That kind of thought makes people grab players 1-2 rounds earlier than they need to.If drafting late in round 1 I'd consider a QB if none of the elite RB's are left, but if you draft early or in the middle of round 1, take an elite RB and hope that Romo falls to you in the 2nd round. With the added weapon (Dez) at WR, I'd be very high on Romo. Although Eli in round 3 or 4 isnt a bad option either.anyhow, wait til draft day and see how things pan out.

 

[Keith1]

I've run several different scenarios using the numbers from my Draft Dominator. I pick # 7 in a 12 team draft. The highest projected numbers are the ones where I grab Rodgers in the first, a stud WR in the 2nd (Roddy White ?), an RB in the 3rd (Pierre ?) and another WR in the 4th (Gates ?--TEs count as WRs in my league); OR, when I grab a top RB in the 1st (Turner ?), then Romo, then a WR in the 3rd (S. Smith-Panthers ?) and a WR/TE in the 4th (Gates ?) The other scenarios I've run (grabbing Rivers in the 3rd or Cutler in the 4th) do not project to nearly as many points. Which I suppose takes us back to the original question of whether QBs in 6 point passing TD-leagues are worth more. I think they are.

 

[The Jerk]

I believe there is no denying the mathematical reality that with all other things being equal, increasing the points per TD pass from 4 to 6 points will result in greater point separation at the QB position. While maybe not unanimous, most people agree this makes the QB position more valuable. The disagreement, as I interpret it and see it spelled out in this thread, is what to do with this knowledge; or in other words, how much more valuable do QBs become?

I've been slowly drifting toward earlier QB drafting over the past 5-6 seasons, and the only reason I'm not further along that path is because of the great success I had in the 1990s with later QBs and the fact that it's still possible to pull out a 2009 Schaub or Favre. But we all need to recognize that football -- both in the NFL and in FF leagues -- has changed in the past decade and some tweaks in strategy should at least be considered. This is never more important than in 6 pt passing TD leagues.

Consider that from 1999-2003, exactly 28 QBs threw for 25 or more TDs in a season (5.6 QBs per season).

From 2007-2009 -- in just three seasons, 29 QBs threw for 25 or more TDs, including 12 in 2009 alone (9.7 QBs per season).

Also from 1999-2003, exactly 9 QBs threw for 30+ TDs (1.8 QBs per season).

From 2007-2009, 11 QBs threw for 30+ TDs (3.7 QBs per season).

As I see it, having a pedestrian QB ten years ago meant conceding a slight advantage to roughly half the league and facing a larger deficit against only two opponents, on average. But now, having a pedestrian QB means conceding a slight advantage to nearly every opponent and a larger deficit to half of the league. I think that's a very important distinction. It might be said that having a top QB has gone from a luxury to a necessity.

The original post was asking questions about the "need" to go after an elite QB vs. using a QB by committee approach. Based on what I listed above, I'm suggesting that it's not as easy to field a strong team with late QB picks as it was ten years ago.

It's easy to advise people to stock up on other positional talent early and then get a breakout QB (or committee) in the later rounds. The strategy still sounds great, but the execution part can be tricky. Just exactly who is the breakout QB? Prior to the 2009 draft, when utilizing scoring tailored to my leagues, Palmer was rated just ahead of Schaub and Cassel was a few spots lower, just ahead of Favre. Now, if you're the guy who drafted Schaub or Favre, you got near-elite to elite production for a bargain basement price. However, if you drafted Palmer and Cassel, unless you are completely stacked everywhere else, you're hoping for a miracle waiver wire (or trade) QB pick-up to save your season.

Going after a QB committee ideally can work well to lessen the gap between your team and teams with elite QBs, but it often leads to agonizing lineup decisions that can backfire as often as not.

So as I see it, the critical question is exactly how much importance to place on having a secure scoring QB vs. hoping to find one (or a committee) in the later rounds. For me, there is no cookie cutter approach to this issue, because a lot depends on league composition and draft history (if known). The exact scoring formula should be considered, the number of teams matters, and the type of owners in the league can make a big impact.

My longest-running league (21 years) has about 4-5 serious FBG-caliber geeks, 2-3 so-called guppies, and 2-3 "maverick" owners, as I call them. This combination makes for unpredictable and unconventional strategy, but with 6 point TDs and also bonuses for distance scores, convention needs to be adhered to at its own risk. One of the "FBG-caliber" owners was salivating when he joined the league around ten years ago as he acquired three top 10 RBs with his first three picks, only to notice that nearly every other owner had their starting QB and at least one WR. He thought he was set to dominate, but a run on #2 RBs by the other owners never materialized. Instead, they were continued to be drafted as a slow trickle. The other teams continued to pick up WR and TE. The bottom line is that the advantage the new owner thought he had at RB wasn't nearly what he thought it was when countered by deficits at QB and WR1 as well as essentially a dead heat at WR2, TE, etc.

Sorry for the long story, but my point is that depending on a given league, holding out for an extra round or two even when it makes sense on a value basis can backfire if your league doesn't conform to typical norms. If 6-7 QBs are drafted in the first 16-20 picks, it still might be the better strategy to be one of the early QB drafters, because it can be preferable to be on an relatively even playing field rather than being forced to rely on an uncertain (and therefore risky) QB situation and to facing the aforementioned deficits against at least half of your opponents, if not more.

 

[drmcpa]

I believe there is no denying the mathematical reality that with all other things being equal, increasing the points per TD pass from 4 to 6 points will result in greater point separation at the QB position. While maybe not unanimous, most people agree this makes the QB position more valuable. The disagreement, as I interpret it and see it spelled out in this thread, is what to do with this knowledge; or in other words, how much more valuable do QBs become?I've been slowly drifting toward earlier QB drafting over the past 5-6 seasons, and the only reason I'm not further along that path is because of the great success I had in the 1990s with later QBs and the fact that it's still possible to pull out a 2009 Schaub or Favre. But we all need to recognize that football -- both in the NFL and in FF leagues -- has changed in the past decade and some tweaks in strategy should at least be considered. This is never more important than in 6 pt passing TD leagues.Consider that from 1999-2003, exactly 28 QBs threw for 25 or more TDs in a season (5.6 QBs per season).From 2007-2009 -- in just three seasons, 29 QBs threw for 25 or more TDs, including 12 in 2009 alone (9.7 QBs per season).Also from 1999-2003, exactly 9 QBs threw for 30+ TDs (1.8 QBs per season).From 2007-2009, 11 QBs threw for 30+ TDs (3.7 QBs per season).As I see it, having a pedestrian QB ten years ago meant conceding a slight advantage to roughly half the league and facing a larger deficit against only two opponents, on average. But now, having a pedestrian QB means conceding a slight advantage to nearly every opponent and a larger deficit to half of the league. I think that's a very important distinction. It might be said that having a top QB has gone from a luxury to a necessity.The original post was asking questions about the "need" to go after an elite QB vs. using a QB by committee approach. Based on what I listed above, I'm suggesting that it's not as easy to field a strong team with late QB picks as it was ten years ago.It's easy to advise people to stock up on other positional talent early and then get a breakout QB (or committee) in the later rounds. The strategy still sounds great, but the execution part can be tricky. Just exactly who is the breakout QB? Prior to the 2009 draft, when utilizing scoring tailored to my leagues, Palmer was rated just ahead of Schaub and Cassel was a few spots lower, just ahead of Favre. Now, if you're the guy who drafted Schaub or Favre, you got near-elite to elite production for a bargain basement price. However, if you drafted Palmer and Cassel, unless you are completely stacked everywhere else, you're hoping for a miracle waiver wire (or trade) QB pick-up to save your season.Going after a QB committee ideally can work well to lessen the gap between your team and teams with elite QBs, but it often leads to agonizing lineup decisions that can backfire as often as not.So as I see it, the critical question is exactly how much importance to place on having a secure scoring QB vs. hoping to find one (or a committee) in the later rounds. For me, there is no cookie cutter approach to this issue, because a lot depends on league composition and draft history (if known). The exact scoring formula should be considered, the number of teams matters, and the type of owners in the league can make a big impact. My longest-running league (21 years) has about 4-5 serious FBG-caliber geeks, 2-3 so-called guppies, and 2-3 "maverick" owners, as I call them. This combination makes for unpredictable and unconventional strategy, but with 6 point TDs and also bonuses for distance scores, convention needs to be adhered to at its own risk. One of the "FBG-caliber" owners was salivating when he joined the league around ten years ago as he acquired three top 10 RBs with his first three picks, only to notice that nearly every other owner had their starting QB and at least one WR. He thought he was set to dominate, but a run on #2 RBs by the other owners never materialized. Instead, they were continued to be drafted as a slow trickle. The other teams continued to pick up WR and TE. The bottom line is that the advantage the new owner thought he had at RB wasn't nearly what he thought it was when countered by deficits at QB and WR1 as well as essentially a dead heat at WR2, TE, etc.Sorry for the long story, but my point is that depending on a given league, holding out for an extra round or two even when it makes sense on a value basis can backfire if your league doesn't conform to typical norms. If 6-7 QBs are drafted in the first 16-20 picks, it still might be the better strategy to be one of the early QB drafters, because it can be preferable to be on an relatively even playing field rather than being forced to rely on an uncertain (and therefore risky) QB situation and to facing the aforementioned deficits against at least half of your opponents, if not more.

Very good post. I guess the guy that earlier stated that the top 6-7 qb's were gone by mid 3rd round plays in the cbs leagues. I do as well and this is what I normally see. I usually play multiple teams (16 last year) and test this each year. Last year i drafted a qb early in 10 leagues and went qbc in 6. The 10 all made the playoffs and 6 went on to the finals and half won championships. The other 6 had dismal seasons despite being loaded at rb and wr. In all the finals 3 of the 4 usually had an elite qb. The exception being with Schaub. in 08 the same held to be true with the exception being Cutler. Who will be the exception this year? Anybodies guess. Please tell me. I usually prefer getting a qb in those leagues in the second or early third especially if it looks like I am drafting against qbc guys.

 

[jaylasoul14]

My league has 4 points for passing td but .5 for a completion. I have the first pick and at the 2/3 turn ive run several mocks. I am definitely taking a WR there so it comes down to taking a qb or a rb with the other pick. Then which ever way i go i will do the opposite at the 4th 5th turn

option 1=

1st) chris Johnson

2nd-=Brady 525 points

3rd d jax

4th) best or arian foster= 185 points

=710 points

option 2=

1) CJ

2) matthews= 215 points

3) d jax

4) Cutler= 460 points

=675 points

My point is, in 6 point td leagues or leagues that award for completions i feel the best way to get the highest point total is to get an elite qb. The gap between a Brady or Shaub compared to Flacco/ Ryan will be greater in heavy qb leagues than the gap between a 2nd/3rd round rb compared to a 4th/5th round running back.

If your league awards ppr then this is not really the case but in leagues that are slanted towards the qb it is beneficial to grab a top3 potential guy.

I got my projections using draft dominator tweaked to my scoring system which is .5 ppr .5 / completion. IMO in any league that is slanted towards the qb you must have a top one

 

[GregR_2]

Doesn't really make a difference.

All QBs score 2 more points for TDs so relatively, QBs are all worth about the same.

Never quite bought into this rationale. If you increase TDs to 6 pts...then that increases the point gap even more between a 33 TD quarterback and a 25 TD quarterback. Just imagine you increase TDs to 100 points. Would you still say all QBs are the same?

For some reason I seem to value QBs more when TDs are worth 6 pts as opposed to 4. However when you have a QB that throws for 33 TDs and one that throws for 25 TDs that's an 8 TD difference at two extra pts per TD which comes out to an extra 16 pts which is 1 pt per week difference. Not really that much of a difference to value them much more than usual I guess.

I think you're getting a little too lost in "1 point a week, that's not much", without looking to see how one point a week changes things in a draft. It's enough to move most players a good half a round or so.For example, just using FBG stock settings and current projections, their overall ranking by VBD value amongst all players goes from:

Rodgers 8 -> 6

Brees 11 -> 5

Manning 15 -> 9

Romo 16 -> 11

Brady 26 -> 21

Schaub 27 -> 26

Cutler 48 -> 41

Rivers 59 -> 57

Ryan 66 -> 65

Kolb 74 -> 77

Half of the top 10 QBs move up from 5-7 spots in the overall rankings based on VBD value. It isn't an overwhelming change where QBs should dominate the early draft, but it is enough of a change one should account for it in their draft strategy.

 

[isiahcleaves]

I have my 1st draft later tonight and just logged on here because I'm really puzzled about what to do.

I don't remember the last time I drafted a qb early and was planning to try to get Kolb late this year... but I'm not so sure it's the right thing to do.

Start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wrs, 1 te, and 1 flex. 12 team PPR league with all TD's worth 6.

I have the 1st pick and am really confused about what to do at the 2/3 turn.

Based on past years, I know Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton will be gone.

I'd bet that MJD, AP, Rice, Gore, Sjax, Turner, and DWill will be gone.

I'd also bet that AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Wayne, White, Calvin, Austin, and Marshall will be gone.

Here are my questions:

1. Does the fact that this league requires so many starting RB/WRs (plus the fact that it's PPR) offset the importance of getting a stud QB?

2. Do I go QB (Romo, Schaub or Brady)... knowing that those guys won't get back to me at the 4/5 turn?

3. One of these picks has to be a WR... right?

Appreciate any of your thoughts on these questions... especially #1 and #3.

 

[Bigwill]

I'm curious what did you decide to do. I have my draft coming Tuesday. This is the same situation I am in. I have the first pick and thought I was going C. Johnson for the last week but now I'm starting to wonder if i should go QB with them getting 6pts per td. I'm really confusded what to do.

I have my 1st draft later tonight and just logged on here because I'm really puzzled about what to do.I don't remember the last time I drafted a qb early and was planning to try to get Kolb late this year... but I'm not so sure it's the right thing to do.Start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wrs, 1 te, and 1 flex. 12 team PPR league with all TD's worth 6. I have the 1st pick and am really confused about what to do at the 2/3 turn.Based on past years, I know Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton will be gone.I'd bet that MJD, AP, Rice, Gore, Sjax, Turner, and DWill will be gone.I'd also bet that AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Wayne, White, Calvin, Austin, and Marshall will be gone.Here are my questions:1. Does the fact that this league requires so many starting RB/WRs (plus the fact that it's PPR) offset the importance of getting a stud QB? 2. Do I go QB (Romo, Schaub or Brady)... knowing that those guys won't get back to me at the 4/5 turn?3. One of these picks has to be a WR... right? Appreciate any of your thoughts on these questions... especially #1 and #3.

 

[whodeywhodey]

I'm curious what did you decide to do. I have my draft coming Tuesday. This is the same situation I am in. I have the first pick and thought I was going C. Johnson for the last week but now I'm starting to wonder if i should go QB with them getting 6pts per td. I'm really confusded what to do.

I have my 1st draft later tonight and just logged on here because I'm really puzzled about what to do.I don't remember the last time I drafted a qb early and was planning to try to get Kolb late this year... but I'm not so sure it's the right thing to do.Start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wrs, 1 te, and 1 flex. 12 team PPR league with all TD's worth 6. I have the 1st pick and am really confused about what to do at the 2/3 turn.Based on past years, I know Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton will be gone.I'd bet that MJD, AP, Rice, Gore, Sjax, Turner, and DWill will be gone.I'd also bet that AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Wayne, White, Calvin, Austin, and Marshall will be gone.Here are my questions:1. Does the fact that this league requires so many starting RB/WRs (plus the fact that it's PPR) offset the importance of getting a stud QB? 2. Do I go QB (Romo, Schaub or Brady)... knowing that those guys won't get back to me at the 4/5 turn?3. One of these picks has to be a WR... right? Appreciate any of your thoughts on these questions... especially #1 and #3.

No. I would go Johnson/ADP with your first pick. You'll have one of the big 6 QB there at the 2 / 3 turn so take your highest rated one.

 

[smapdi]

I just had my 12 team redraft, PPR, 6 point ALL TD league today. This league has a few "maverick" owners so the draft can yield unexpected results.

I drew the 5th pick.

I decided to pull the trigger on Rodgers at 5. He was the league's leading scorer last season. I see no reason why those numbers will decline; you would expect some improvement from Rodgers this season with another year of experience. He also has the ability to add another 5 or 6 TD's on the ground which puts him over the top for the "elite" QB's IMO

I was able to land the highest scoring player at pick number 5. That is how I look at it. At worst, he should be in the top 4 at the end of the year, so he will still outperform where I drafted him

Elite QB's give you a nice edge. Facing any of the 8 teams without an elite QB (Brees, Manning, Romo), you have a significant advantage at the position. Since QB is the highest scoring position in that type of league, I feel that is worth the cost of obtaining them.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I was told that there would be no math...

 

[SoopaCee]

in my league, 12 team ppr redraft (all td"s 6)

7 qbs were takin in the first 2 rounds

so i guess ppl thinks its very important

i waited and took eli

my first 2 picks were Moss, and then Gore

out the 9th spot

i was happy to get gore.....worked out because all the ppl behind me took qb and wr

so if you dont get a qb early....there is soooo much value elsewhere (first 4 picks were moss, gore, grant, finley).....my best pick was steve smith (car) in the 5th

and just wait and get someone like flacco or eli....heck eli had over 4000 yds last year

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I don't think anyone is saying it is a MAJOR difference. But it does affect the rankings and increases the relative value of QB's to other positions. How much so depends on your individual rankings and projections. If we can agree on that, then I think we're good.

put another way: I don't think anyone is saying it makes NO difference. But the change in relative value is less significant than many assume. How much less depends on your individual rankings and projections. If we can agree on that, then I think we're good!