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Lee Evans (1 Viewer)

Brewzers

Footballguy
Lee Evans has (3) full years in the league, here are the 1st half of the season splits vs the 2nd:

2004 321/2 vs 522/7

2005 234/1 vs 509/6

2006 487/2 vs 805/6

He plays the 1st half like a bust and the 2nd like an All Pro. Its been every year and this year (thru 6 games) he is 211/0. History would tell you to buy low right now. Is there something to this trend or just an uncanny coincidence?

 
In my 14 team re-draft league I traded Reggie (please trade McNabb) Brown and Jerrious Norwood for Evans and basically nobody. I'm in 1st, Romo/Addai/Parker/ROY/Witten are my core and I was looking for ONE more guy that I thought could be huge in the 2nd half. Knowing these splits led me to this deal. To some it might seem a bit lopsided, but the schedule is good and history generally proves to be a worthy factor in determining a player's outlook. I agree, obviously, I think Evans is a super buy low.

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence. However, I noticed the same thing at the beginning of the year (as I'm sure a bunch of us did) and stored it away for later.

I threw an offer out for him last week that I thought was totally lowball, just to gauge interest. His owner was so sick of him he jumped on it. Keeping my fingers crossed that he follows the same trajectory this season. He certainly has the playoff schedule to be a difference maker for owners that can get that far with him.

 
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I think he has about similar value to a Greg Jennings -- without a proven QB and a team that is committed to the pass. But I do like his upside, rreally he doesnt have downside since he has hit bottom basically. But I would move him for a receiver like Jennings and a throw in RB if I had him. Just trying to give an assessment of what I think his value in. Maybe I am way off?

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.

 
I think he has about similar value to a Greg Jennings -- without a proven QB and a team that is committed to the pass. But I do like his upside, rreally he doesnt have downside since he has hit bottom basically. But I would move him for a receiver like Jennings and a throw in RB if I had him. Just trying to give an assessment of what I think his value in. Maybe I am way off?
See thats the thing, is he Jennings or is he Housh, Wayne or TO value? I really don't know, I think the extreme 2nd half performance is odd and worthy of discussion.
 
I think the Jets are going to do their best in continuing this trend. I finally get to dust off Evans this week from a buy low trade from week 3. I tend to agree with the side that says this is more of a coincidence but this is a great week to test the theory.

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
Is it such a stretch that he could be a slow starter and a fast finisher ???I would like to know how he did in high school and college...could he have been like this always???

 
The team is going with Edwards now, and he doesn't stretch the field. Evans is better off with Losman, who's not very accurate, but throws a heck of a long ball. I don't think you will see any major improvement.

 
Evans had his best day of the year last week with Edwards. If I'm not mistaken Edwards hit him for a 54 yarder. Maybe the arm strength isn't on the same level, but it seems he can at least get it done deep. I'm hoping for a big second half.

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
Is it such a stretch that he could be a slow starter and a fast finisher ???I would like to know how he did in high school and college...could he have been like this always???
Link to Evans college stats by game http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coll...e_wisconsin.htmDoesn't seem to hold true.

 
He may well improve. The problem is, when you look at those stats, there doesn't appear to be any cogent reason for them. Which could mean that the dice came up 7 three times in a row, but the dice have no memory.

 
He has been on and off the waiver wire in my league all year with me the only person picking him up since his owner dropped him week 4. I am dropping Cotchery for him. With Evans I hink the question is really the price (I would think you could get him for basically nothing) and if you can take a flyer on a guy that seems likely to boom or bust.

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
Is it such a stretch that he could be a slow starter and a fast finisher ???I would like to know how he did in high school and college...could he have been like this always???
What exactly do you mean? There is NO way it should take someone the first 8 games of each year to get used to the speed of the game, or whatever you're going after with "slow starter". There are OTAs, TCs and preseason games to prevent this.
 
Well at least it sounds like Lee is alright with the QB change now....

WR Lee Evans, who came into the league with QB J.P. Losman as a fellow first-round pick in 2004, is on record as saying Losman should not have lost his job to an injury. He saw no need to switch to rookie Trent Edwards but he wasn't going to rock any boats on Wednesday when asked about it. The Bills (2-4) conceivably could win their next three games vs. the equally struggling Jets (1-6), Bengals (2-4) and Dolphins (0-7) if they can get their offense to stay on track. Last week against Baltimore, Buffalo scored a season-best 19 points by the offense and Evans caught a 54-yard pass from Edwards that led to a TD. Evans is mostly happy that coach **** Jauron made a decision on a permanent starter and halted the growing circus associated with a QB carousel. "If that's the decision that they decided to go with than that's the decision we have," Evans said. "Regardless of anything else outside of that, that's what we have to go with. The biggest thing was that (Jauron) made the decision quick and you go with it. I think that's the biggest thing. That's what benefits the team best. So I'm glad he did that."

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
:goodposting: That every other year stuff is absurd. "Madden Curse" anyone?

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
:goodposting: That every other year stuff is absurd. "Madden Curse" anyone?
I definitely agree that Evans is notoriously, a slow starter. Given that, along with Trent Edwards just getting his feet wet in the NFL, you have to allow them some time to build some chemistry. They showed signs of that chemistry last week. Against the Ravens, no less.

Marshawn is their best player, now. Defenses will focus on stopping him, and will challenge Edwards to beat them.

Was Losman ever considered to be a great QB? Barely a good QB. None of US would draft him as a QB1 or 2.

The point is, we can't forget that Evans is uber-talented himself.

I'd take him over these top 30 WR's in PPG

Johnson, Andre (hurt)

Boldin, Anquan (recovering, QB ?'s)

Curtis, Kevin (flash in the pan?)

Davis, Andre (fill in with QB?'s)

Marshall, Brandon (needs Javon to be successful. Evans needs someone to throw a ball 30-40 yards downfield)

Cotchery, Jerricho (WR2, QB?'s)

Curry, Ronald (I'm not convinced)

Crayton, Patrick (WR2, many other receiving options in DAL)

Branch, Deion (recovering)

Mason, Derrick (sell high, tough schedule going forward)

I'd consider him as valuable as Santonio, Laverneus, Welker and Bowe. SOLID WR2's.

Buy low? NO QUESTION. :goodposting:

This kind of thinking has paid off for 3 years. I'd rather take a shot and be wrong, than miss out on a tremendous bargain.

 
I always remember Chris Warren (RB for the Seahawks) as being a slow starter and a great finisher. It happens. This guy has the skills to be great. Not good, great....or he might just go back on the scrap heap.

 
I always remember Chris Warren (RB for the Seahawks) as being a slow starter and a great finisher. It happens. This guy has the skills to be great. Not good, great....or he might just go back on the scrap heap.
I concur with this. I'm not really buying into any sort of "first half voodoo" being the reason, but it has happened with guys before and it's happening with Evans during his career thus far. More than anything, though, I think he has a decent chance to repeat that cycle simply because he's been so bad this year. He can't be much worse.
 
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Trends usually have some merit...nice breakdown.
It's coincidental.It's analogous to saying Saberhagen will be better in even years than in odd years. It lasted for a while, but ultimately petered out. When there's no coherent logic to it, trends can only be considered incidental.
 
Which team did Saberhagen play receiver for? Lee has already stunk up the first part of the season, all he needs to do now is rebound like he has always done.

 
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
Is it such a stretch that he could be a slow starter and a fast finisher ???I would like to know how he did in high school and college...could he have been like this always???
What exactly do you mean? There is NO way it should take someone the first 8 games of each year to get used to the speed of the game, or whatever you're going after with "slow starter". There are OTAs, TCs and preseason games to prevent this.
What you are forgetting is that a WR is completely dependent upon the QB. Nobody hands him the ball 20 times a game. He's gone form a washed up Bledsoe, to a rookie Losman, then a 2nd year Losman, and now a rookie Edwards. As long as his QB keeps changing, he may continue to be a slow starter.
 
BuckeyeArt said:
Chunky Soup said:
3 years would typically constitute a trend in my book.....but it's still probably just coincidence.
Should have stopped there because it's a great point. There is very little actual reason to think an NFL WR will go from dud to stud at the halfway point of each year. Sure, it could happen again, but there is no evidence this "trend" will continue.This is just as bad as the "every other year" shtick that Moulds had going for him.
Is it such a stretch that he could be a slow starter and a fast finisher ???I would like to know how he did in high school and college...could he have been like this always???
What exactly do you mean? There is NO way it should take someone the first 8 games of each year to get used to the speed of the game, or whatever you're going after with "slow starter". There are OTAs, TCs and preseason games to prevent this.
What you are forgetting is that a WR is completely dependent upon the QB. Nobody hands him the ball 20 times a game. He's gone form a washed up Bledsoe, to a rookie Losman, then a 2nd year Losman, and now a rookie Edwards. As long as his QB keeps changing, he may continue to be a slow starter.
Could be situational. Bledsoe/Losman in 2004. Holcomb/Losman in 2005. Losman in 2006 (Evans best year) and finally Edwards/Losman in 2007. Hmmm.
 
Beggin4Par said:
I'd take him over these top 30 WR's in PPG

Johnson, Andre (hurt)

Boldin, Anquan (recovering, QB ?'s)

Curtis, Kevin (flash in the pan?)

Davis, Andre (fill in with QB?'s)

Marshall, Brandon (needs Javon to be successful. Evans needs someone to throw a ball 30-40 yards downfield)

Cotchery, Jerricho (WR2, QB?'s)

Curry, Ronald (I'm not convinced)

Crayton, Patrick (WR2, many other receiving options in DAL)

Branch, Deion (recovering)

Mason, Derrick (sell high, tough schedule going forward)

I'd consider him as valuable as Santonio, Laverneus, Welker and Bowe. SOLID WR2's.
Funny that three of these guys are on my squad (Only one missing is Driver). Picked Evans off waivers on Wed. and I'm officially crossing my fingers.
 
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Looking to buy low in a redraft league - after he showed signs of life last week and looking @ his remaining schedule. Worst case he looks like solid playoff insurance on the bench for a nice spot play or two.

The concern is going to be the Oline and QB play. As mentioned above - Lynch is doing a great job for a rookie keeping Ds honest.

He'll be a WR3-4 for me w/ Colston - so one of these guys has to re-emerge - right??? :unsure:

8 Oct 28 BUF @ NYJ :thumbup:

9 Nov 04 CIN @ BUF :thumbup: :thumbup:

10 Nov 11 BUF @ MIA :thumbup:

11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF :popcorn:

12 Nov 25 BUF @ JAC :lmao:

13 Dec 02 BUF @ WAS :banned:

14 Dec 09 MIA @ BUF :thumbup: :thumbup:

15 Dec 16 BUF @ CLE :thumbup: :thumbup:

16 Dec 23 NYG @ BUF :popcorn:

17 Dec 30 BUF @ PHI

 
The trend is legitimate; but it isn't Evans, it is his team. He has had three different QBs in the last three years. My guess would be that it has taken time for the new QB to figure out how to get him the ball.

 
Looking to buy low in a redraft league - after he showed signs of life last week and looking @ his remaining schedule. Worst case he looks like solid playoff insurance on the bench for a nice spot play or two.The concern is going to be the Oline and QB play. As mentioned above - Lynch is doing a great job for a rookie keeping Ds honest. He'll be a WR3-4 for me w/ Colston - so one of these guys has to re-emerge - right??? :unsure: ... 11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF :o 12 Nov 25 BUF @ JAC :wall: 13 Dec 02 BUF @ WAS :doh: 14 Dec 09 MIA @ BUF :thumbup: :thumbup: etc...
:shrug: :lmao: :lmao: :excited: :pickle: Not only huge props because I agree with most of these, but better props on the simplistic yet accurate way to opine on these games.Evans was ESPECIALLY quiet early on. Granted, the Bills playbook was the like we haven't seen in awhile. In fact, I'd challenge that the Bills stole the Niners playbook.Regardless.... there's been some rumble in the Lee Evans volcano. I know soooooo many ppl that have traded him away.. but interestingly, NOONE has dropped him. Talent is talent. However if the playbook, and the team's long ball is that wasted... nevermind... the last few weeks tells me Lee is due for a breakout better than a ProActive spokesmodel[disclosure: said poster doesn't own Mr Evans, and in fact... actaully, never has ..in any league]
 
Looking to buy low in a redraft league - after he showed signs of life last week and looking @ his remaining schedule. Worst case he looks like solid playoff insurance on the bench for a nice spot play or two.The concern is going to be the Oline and QB play. As mentioned above - Lynch is doing a great job for a rookie keeping Ds honest. He'll be a WR3-4 for me w/ Colston - so one of these guys has to re-emerge - right??? :unsure: ... 11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF :o 12 Nov 25 BUF @ JAC :wall: 13 Dec 02 BUF @ WAS :doh: 14 Dec 09 MIA @ BUF :thumbup: :thumbup: etc...
:shrug: :lmao: :lmao: :excited: :pickle: Not only huge props because I agree with most of these, but better props on the simplistic yet accurate way to opine on these games.Evans was ESPECIALLY quiet early on. Granted, the Bills playbook was the like we haven't seen in awhile. In fact, I'd challenge that the Bills stole the Niners playbook.Regardless.... there's been some rumble in the Lee Evans volcano. I know soooooo many ppl that have traded him away.. but interestingly, NOONE has dropped him. Talent is talent. However if the playbook, and the team's long ball is that wasted... nevermind... the last few weeks tells me Lee is due for a breakout better than a ProActive spokesmodel[disclosure: said poster doesn't own Mr Evans, and in fact... actaully, never has ..in any league]
Dang that post is t'ight.
 
Looking to buy low in a redraft league - after he showed signs of life last week and looking @ his remaining schedule. Worst case he looks like solid playoff insurance on the bench for a nice spot play or two.The concern is going to be the Oline and QB play. As mentioned above - Lynch is doing a great job for a rookie keeping Ds honest. He'll be a WR3-4 for me w/ Colston - so one of these guys has to re-emerge - right??? :unsure: ... 11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF :popcorn: 12 Nov 25 BUF @ JAC :thumbdown: 13 Dec 02 BUF @ WAS :confused: 14 Dec 09 MIA @ BUF :thumbup: :thumbup: etc...
:mellow: :goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: Not only huge props because I agree with most of these, but better props on the simplistic yet accurate way to opine on these games.Evans was ESPECIALLY quiet early on. Granted, the Bills playbook was the like we haven't seen in awhile. In fact, I'd challenge that the Bills stole the Niners playbook.Regardless.... there's been some rumble in the Lee Evans volcano. I know soooooo many ppl that have traded him away.. but interestingly, NOONE has dropped him. Talent is talent. However if the playbook, and the team's long ball is that wasted... nevermind... the last few weeks tells me Lee is due for a breakout better than a ProActive spokesmodel[disclosure: said poster doesn't own Mr Evans, and in fact... actaully, never has ..in any league]
Dang that post is t'ight.
:bowtie: ;) Keeping it simple for the late night drinking crowd...
 
Well at least it sounds like Lee is alright with the QB change now....WR Lee Evans, who came into the league with QB J.P. Losman as a fellow first-round pick in 2004, is on record as saying Losman should not have lost his job to an injury. He saw no need to switch to rookie Trent Edwards but he wasn't going to rock any boats on Wednesday when asked about it. The Bills (2-4) conceivably could win their next three games vs. the equally struggling Jets (1-6), Bengals (2-4) and Dolphins (0-7) if they can get their offense to stay on track. Last week against Baltimore, Buffalo scored a season-best 19 points by the offense and Evans caught a 54-yard pass from Edwards that led to a TD. Evans is mostly happy that coach **** Jauron made a decision on a permanent starter and halted the growing circus associated with a QB carousel. "If that's the decision that they decided to go with than that's the decision we have," Evans said. "Regardless of anything else outside of that, that's what we have to go with. The biggest thing was that (Jauron) made the decision quick and you go with it. I think that's the biggest thing. That's what benefits the team best. So I'm glad he did that."
i'm curious who he prefers. this just sounds like him being a good teammate... he may not necessarily be happy with it.
 
Lee Evans has (3) full years in the league, here are the 1st half of the season splits vs the 2nd: 2004 321/2 vs 522/72005 234/1 vs 509/62006 487/2 vs 805/6He plays the 1st half like a bust and the 2nd like an All Pro. Its been every year and this year (thru 6 games) he is 211/0. History would tell you to buy low right now. Is there something to this trend or just an uncanny coincidence?
Despite what the #'s allude to I don't buy the "slow starter" label. If he is truly as good as people profess it's pretty weak that he takes 8 games to warm up. I think there are other factors involved here one of which is SOS. I know he had a cake schedule to end last year and had a tough one to begin this one so the numbers he put up aren't that surprising to me. Anyone objectively looking at their schedule to start the year could have seen the red flags. What Evans needs (besides a good QB) is a receiving threat, a good TE or wr, to help take the double teams off him. As it stands now teams just blanket him and don't care about the other guys because they stink. Parish, Royal, Price? They are all very ordinary. He has the talent to beat up on some bad defenses but good ones continually stuff him because he's the only player they have to worry about. I also think their coaching staff doesn't put him in the best position to succeed.
 
The trend is legitimate; but it isn't Evans, it is his team. He has had three different QBs in the last three years. My guess would be that it has taken time for the new QB to figure out how to get him the ball.
**** Jauron was on ESPN radio recently, the interviewer ( Kellerman?) asked him why Evans is being held in check. Jauron mentioned that teams came out this season,with new defensive formations than what they haven't seen before, specifically designed to stop Lee Evans..it has worked so far..He went on to say they're looking at ways to get Evans more involved, to prevent defenses from rolling coverage towards him...I think the bye week gave Jauron more time to figure out how to free up Evans, and he's likely to get more involved as the season goes forward..not too mention, Marv Levy probably chimed in asking him why he's not using his best player as others mentioned, he's seen a few of different QB's throw the ball to him recently, it takes time to develop a chemistry with a new QB.Lynch has forced defenses to honor the run now..so maybe things begin to open up for Evans, going forward..
 
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Well, the problem now is that Edwards is QB. So, there goes the long ball from Losman to Evans. Edwards can't throw the long ball like that, and is a check down, and quick slant guy.

 
Well, the problem now is that Edwards is QB. So, there goes the long ball from Losman to Evans. Edwards can't throw the long ball like that, and is a check down, and quick slant guy.
He caught a 54 yarder last week. Not sure if it was a catch and run or deep ball.
 
Well, the problem now is that Edwards is QB. So, there goes the long ball from Losman to Evans. Edwards can't throw the long ball like that, and is a check down, and quick slant guy.
He caught a 54 yarder last week. Not sure if it was a catch and run or deep ball.
1-10-BUF 29 (5:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle to 83-L.Evans to BAL 17 for 54 yards (35-C.Ivy). Caught on run at BAL 27.
Looks like a deep ball.
 
Bodysnatcher said:
Well, the problem now is that Edwards is QB. So, there goes the long ball from Losman to Evans. Edwards can't throw the long ball like that, and is a check down, and quick slant guy.
Edwards has a very strong arm. What makes you think he can't throw the long ball like Losman?
 
Exile said:
Sabertooth said:
Bodysnatcher said:
Well, the problem now is that Edwards is QB. So, there goes the long ball from Losman to Evans. Edwards can't throw the long ball like that, and is a check down, and quick slant guy.
He caught a 54 yarder last week. Not sure if it was a catch and run or deep ball.
1-10-BUF 29 (5:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle to 83-L.Evans to BAL 17 for 54 yards (35-C.Ivy). Caught on run at BAL 27.
Looks like a deep ball.
It was and it would have been a TD, but Evans almost dropped it. It hit him in the numbers and Evans bobbled it up in the air and had to slow down to make the catch, which gave the DB's time to get to him. If he catches it clean, it's a TD.
 
He may well improve. The problem is, when you look at those stats, there doesn't appear to be any cogent reason for them. Which could mean that the dice came up 7 three times in a row, but the dice have no memory.
There is no similarity. There is a difference between the Madden jinx and technical analysis -- or maybe you can dismiss a couple hundred billion dollars worth of stock, bond, options and futures traders.
 
Banger said:
Lee Evans has (3) full years in the league, here are the 1st half of the season splits vs the 2nd: 2004 321/2 vs 522/72005 234/1 vs 509/62006 487/2 vs 805/6He plays the 1st half like a bust and the 2nd like an All Pro. Its been every year and this year (thru 6 games) he is 211/0. History would tell you to buy low right now. Is there something to this trend or just an uncanny coincidence?
Despite what the #'s allude to I don't buy the "slow starter" label. If he is truly as good as people profess it's pretty weak that he takes 8 games to warm up. I think there are other factors involved here one of which is SOS. I know he had a cake schedule to end last year and had a tough one to begin this one so the numbers he put up aren't that surprising to me. Anyone objectively looking at their schedule to start the year could have seen the red flags. What Evans needs (besides a good QB) is a receiving threat, a good TE or wr, to help take the double teams off him. As it stands now teams just blanket him and don't care about the other guys because they stink. Parish, Royal, Price? They are all very ordinary. He has the talent to beat up on some bad defenses but good ones continually stuff him because he's the only player they have to worry about. I also think their coaching staff doesn't put him in the best position to succeed.
Not to say I've told you so, especially to anyone here...but I said in week one that Evans faces 8 tough Ds in the first 11 weeks - so dont be surprised if he has a very rough start and a big time contributor down the stretch. Probably the only prediction ive made this year that actually stands up.
 
Finally the Evans owner gave up on him and dropped him. Unfortunately the worst player I had was Kevin Curtis and with the Eagles being inconsistent and never feeling like I can trust starting him, I dumped him. Hopefully Evans lives up to the 2nd half he's known to have year in and year out.

 

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