So I pick last tomorrow and have decided to wait until pick 36 to select my first rb. The 2 that stand out to me near this pick are fjax and Martin and I'm having a tough time deciding on who has the higher ceiling and lower floor. Question with Jackson are age, cj splitting carries, coming off injury at 31 while Martin is an unproven rookie on a suspect offense. I feel both have considerable upside, but which has least downside?
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Less downside (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pumpnick
- Start date
butcher boy
Footballguy
FJax won't be there, and Doug Marting shouldn't be your RB1. Who are you taking at 12 and 13?
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Count yourself lucky if either is there
Of the discount RB's, I see Donald Brown, Willis McGahee, Peyton Hillis, maybe Cedric Benson as the ones that offer relatively less risk. I guess if you had to pick two non-RB's to start, I'd plan the rest of my draft around ways to get two or more of these guys. I fear they'd be reaches at this spot, but reaching is probably a better plan than seeing your season swirl down the crapper before week one because you couldn't find a single RB worth rostering.
I think Turner and/or Gore, if they're available COULD justify a pick in that area, but I'd hesitate to rely on them if I had any viable alternatives. Which you may not.
This kind of draft dynamic is the reason I see it as doom on a stick to do almost anything but two (or more) VERY early RB's this year.
If there were an early run on the usual suspects at RB in the first round, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on two second-tier guys at the 1/2 wrap.
There's enough value at every other position later in the draft that playing it safe at RB early is the higher-reward proposition.
I think Turner and/or Gore, if they're available COULD justify a pick in that area, but I'd hesitate to rely on them if I had any viable alternatives. Which you may not.
This kind of draft dynamic is the reason I see it as doom on a stick to do almost anything but two (or more) VERY early RB's this year.
If there were an early run on the usual suspects at RB in the first round, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on two second-tier guys at the 1/2 wrap.
There's enough value at every other position later in the draft that playing it safe at RB early is the higher-reward proposition.
They could feasibly both be there in a start 1 RB IDP-centric league. I just finished one of those and neither guy was drafted through 11 rounds.
I like Martin for keeper/dynasty leagues and FJax for this year in a redraft. Don't like Tampa Bay's offensive line woes and Blount isn't entirely out of the picture. The Bills are FJax's team so long as he stays healthy; Spiller will only come in to spell him and to go out wide as a receiver. Age isn't a factor for FJax as it is for most other 31-year-old RBs; very little mileage on him. Age is more of a factor for 29-year-old Frank Gore than it is for FJax.
I like Martin for keeper/dynasty leagues and FJax for this year in a redraft. Don't like Tampa Bay's offensive line woes and Blount isn't entirely out of the picture. The Bills are FJax's team so long as he stays healthy; Spiller will only come in to spell him and to go out wide as a receiver. Age isn't a factor for FJax as it is for most other 31-year-old RBs; very little mileage on him. Age is more of a factor for 29-year-old Frank Gore than it is for FJax.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
this
ponchsox
Footballguy
I seriously doubt FJax or Martin will be there at 36. If not, you will be picking from the bottom barrel RB like Greene, Stewart, Williams, etc. I don't see this as winning strategy.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I agree with your thread title this year, because literally there are no RBs in my Top 15 (after the big 3) that I dont see any kind of legit question mark with. Of them, I think Martin and SJax have the least risk, but still have some concerns.
Due to having the 5th pick and 7th picks in my 2 drafts so far, I ended up with Calvin Johnson in both, who IMO was an easy choice. Come the 2nd round, I couldnt pull the trigger on the high risk/high reward RBs Murray and AD staring me in the face, just feels like too early for that kind of risk despite despite the possibilities. While its clear that RB is a weakness on both of my teams, I dont think it is so weak that it will hold me back from winning a championship - assuming the rest of the teams plays at the level they should.
Team 1: Megatron, Gronk, Marshall, Martin, Harvin, Ridley
Team 2: Megatron, Julio, Martin, Andre, McGahee, Vernon
In both instances, I held off of the RBs mostly due to BPA, and also because I see a lot of safer picks later (though with less upside obviously) as well as upside picks. Team 1 I added MBush and Tate who should be decent flex plays in their own right, as well as Wilson, Vereen (more handcuff), and Dwyer who I see as high upside picks. Team 2 I added Benson, Ridley and MBush again, and Hillman (handcuff) and Dwyer. Just like I didnt plan on waiting for RBs so long early, I didnt plan on taking so many of the same guys, but they are seemed like very nice values and clear choices where I got them.
That said, for my final money league I am without a doubt going RB heavy early, risk early, just to field a different type of team. DMC, MJD, AP, Murray, you name it. I plan on going back to back RBs in the first 2 rounds. I was lucky enough to land IMO the safest non-QB pick in the 1st with Calvin, but my opinion for the past month or so is that if Im picking late 1st, Im taking the RB that is there who has the most upside (likely DMC). If I was you and was picking on the 12/13, I would actually do the same thing unless you want to take Graham with 1 of those picks. Otherwise, Id target a pairing a duo of Forte or FJax (who I think fall on the safer end of the RB risk spectrum) with Murray, MJD, or AP (who fall on the riskier side). Im almost hoping I get a late 1st in my final draft so I can use this strategy for this team (unless I get a top 3 pick which of course Id rather have).
Due to having the 5th pick and 7th picks in my 2 drafts so far, I ended up with Calvin Johnson in both, who IMO was an easy choice. Come the 2nd round, I couldnt pull the trigger on the high risk/high reward RBs Murray and AD staring me in the face, just feels like too early for that kind of risk despite despite the possibilities. While its clear that RB is a weakness on both of my teams, I dont think it is so weak that it will hold me back from winning a championship - assuming the rest of the teams plays at the level they should.
Team 1: Megatron, Gronk, Marshall, Martin, Harvin, Ridley
Team 2: Megatron, Julio, Martin, Andre, McGahee, Vernon
In both instances, I held off of the RBs mostly due to BPA, and also because I see a lot of safer picks later (though with less upside obviously) as well as upside picks. Team 1 I added MBush and Tate who should be decent flex plays in their own right, as well as Wilson, Vereen (more handcuff), and Dwyer who I see as high upside picks. Team 2 I added Benson, Ridley and MBush again, and Hillman (handcuff) and Dwyer. Just like I didnt plan on waiting for RBs so long early, I didnt plan on taking so many of the same guys, but they are seemed like very nice values and clear choices where I got them.
That said, for my final money league I am without a doubt going RB heavy early, risk early, just to field a different type of team. DMC, MJD, AP, Murray, you name it. I plan on going back to back RBs in the first 2 rounds. I was lucky enough to land IMO the safest non-QB pick in the 1st with Calvin, but my opinion for the past month or so is that if Im picking late 1st, Im taking the RB that is there who has the most upside (likely DMC). If I was you and was picking on the 12/13, I would actually do the same thing unless you want to take Graham with 1 of those picks. Otherwise, Id target a pairing a duo of Forte or FJax (who I think fall on the safer end of the RB risk spectrum) with Murray, MJD, or AP (who fall on the riskier side). Im almost hoping I get a late 1st in my final draft so I can use this strategy for this team (unless I get a top 3 pick which of course Id rather have).
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
Get FJax
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The Bills only kept 5 WRs on their roster and that includes Brad Smith who injured his groin last night. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Spiller is split out wide a lot.
That being the case, I think Jackson will see almost all the carries. He's looked great in the preseason and has never suffered from the types of muscle, ligament and knee issues that slow down older RBs.
I'm biased, but I think Jackson is the clear option over Martin.
That being the case, I think Jackson will see almost all the carries. He's looked great in the preseason and has never suffered from the types of muscle, ligament and knee issues that slow down older RBs.
I'm biased, but I think Jackson is the clear option over Martin.
isiahcleaves
Footballguy
To answer your question directly... Fjax is a better pick than Martin at that spot if he's available. I don't know the specifics of your league as far as scoring goes, but I would encourage you to draft 1 RB in the 1st couple rounds and get value in the 3rd and 4th (which will likely be WR).
To reply directly to the title of your thread, I've done this in general this season... especially in PPR leagues. I've been playing fantasy football for a long time and have always been a big proponent of drafting RB's very early, but I think it has gotten to the point where they've become too overvalued in general due to so much time sharing, a slew of injury concerns, and the high amount of turnover at the position relative to other spots.
In 3 of my leagues (all 6 point for all TDs with PPR), I had picks 10, 12, and 12 respecively. In each case, I picked 1 stud RB (McFadden or Forte), 1 of the 2 stud TE's, and then 2 WR's ranked between 5 and 15 at the 3/4 turn. In 2 of the 3 cases, I was able to get a decent RB2 at the 5/6 turn (McGahee) and in the other case virtually nobody was avaiable so I continued to draft value (Austin/Vick). In each case, I decided to devote 4-5 picks from the 7th round to the 14th round on backup RBs with high upside (R. Williams, D. Wilson, and J. Rodgers have been the most common). It'll be interesting to see if it pans out
To reply directly to the title of your thread, I've done this in general this season... especially in PPR leagues. I've been playing fantasy football for a long time and have always been a big proponent of drafting RB's very early, but I think it has gotten to the point where they've become too overvalued in general due to so much time sharing, a slew of injury concerns, and the high amount of turnover at the position relative to other spots.
In 3 of my leagues (all 6 point for all TDs with PPR), I had picks 10, 12, and 12 respecively. In each case, I picked 1 stud RB (McFadden or Forte), 1 of the 2 stud TE's, and then 2 WR's ranked between 5 and 15 at the 3/4 turn. In 2 of the 3 cases, I was able to get a decent RB2 at the 5/6 turn (McGahee) and in the other case virtually nobody was avaiable so I continued to draft value (Austin/Vick). In each case, I decided to devote 4-5 picks from the 7th round to the 14th round on backup RBs with high upside (R. Williams, D. Wilson, and J. Rodgers have been the most common). It'll be interesting to see if it pans out
bengalbuck
Footballguy
That makes a lot more sense. I could see going QB/QB. In fact that would be my strategy almost for sure. I think FJax is the easy choice if he's there. I'd argue his upside is much higher than Martin's. He was on pace for a monster season through 10 games last year. Barring injury, he's a safe pick too. He's going to get more of the work and you know how he fits into that offense. I think Martin should be good, but you just don't know exactly how the offense will be or how Martin will fit into it until you see it. Rookie's are always a bit riskier than vets just in general.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Um, this scoring and starting rosters heavily favors QBs, WRs, and TE's (or at least the elite TE's). I still dont think FJax would be there at the end of the 3rd, but with this scoring Martin probably will. Considering the scoring, Id be all over Graham and the WR of your liking with your first 2 picks.
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
IMO it's FJax and it ain't close.
The Squeaky Wheel
Footballguy
I like Fred Jackson more than Doug Martin. I have targeted Fred Jackson early/mid third of a few of my drafts. Seems to me that there is always 1-2 people in my leagues that reach for Doug Martin in the late 2nd.
Your scoring structure is unique. You need to get a stud qb early and load up on WRs. With that structure, from the 12 spot, WR-WR would be good start, or QB/WR.
Good Luck.
Your scoring structure is unique. You need to get a stud qb early and load up on WRs. With that structure, from the 12 spot, WR-WR would be good start, or QB/WR.
Good Luck.
Bobby Guano
Footballguy
I like that set up. How many teams? If you are dead set on RB at 36 I'd probably lean twards Fred Jackson of those two. In a league like this though I wouldn't be supprised if there were even better options than Fred Jax/Martin @ pick 36 if you are looking to go RB there.In a set up like this the first three rounds should be primarily QB's and WR's. I don't think I'd take a RB(outside of Foster/Rice/McCoy)until like the 5-6 round then try and load up on plodder goal-line/lottery ticket type backs, Hillis/Micheal Bush/Riddley/Benson/Ingram/Ben Jarvis/Jaquizz/Spiller etc. If you can put togther a team thats strong @ QB and WR with serviceable RB/TE you'll be golden.
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Most decide to go qb heavy right from the start which really depletes the position quickly. By my pick at 36 i'd guess about 13 qbs,2 te, 9 rbs,11 wrs to be gone. The choice i'm facing at 36 is picking my 12-14 ranked qb at 36 or waiting say until the 7-8th round and take my 18-20th ranked qb.
Sorry about my misleading post earlier. Taking 2 RB or 3 RB super early in your start 2 QB league is obviously a whole 'nother kettle of fish.
I was generalizing about FF strategy for this year, rather than taking your specific and somewhat peculiar league rules and personal situation into account.
Which means, among other things, that this should clearly be an AC post.
I was generalizing about FF strategy for this year, rather than taking your specific and somewhat peculiar league rules and personal situation into account.
Which means, among other things, that this should clearly be an AC post.
