Lessons Learned This Year (1 Viewer)

[glumpy]

Everyone is going to over react in redraft leagues and do reverse draft and gobble up all the receivers and try to grab running backs in the 5th and later. Then it will blow up on them when Dez has a bad year, Green and Calvin get hurt, Marshall loses more targets to Jeffery and everyone will proclaim next year I am going running back and running back.

Nah. This was last year's lesson, or maybe the year before. I played what came to me, picking 10th in a ten teamer. My draft went Calvin-Graham, Demaryius-McFadden, Gronk-Kaepernick and while I've been dancing around those RB's this team is one of three already qualified for the playoffs so it's going alright.

 

[Cunk]

I learned to re-draft highly touted rookies who don't live up to their hype after drafting them their first year. I can't tell you how many times I drafted someone like Patterson only to not look their way at the draft in their second year only to see them become stars. I tear my hair out saying "damnit! i knew it! i knew it!"

 

[belljr]

I learned what I have known for years: fantasy football is an evil hobby. It's a total, complete crapshoot to win championships. You can have an amazing team most of the season and then a few key injuries can wreck you. Or players that were absolute studs suddenly go quiet (I'm looking at you Cameron).

It's a hobby that takes a tremendous amount of time and dedication if you want to be consistently good at it...it takes away from productivity at work, takes away time you could be spending with your family, makes you a slave to your tv on Sundays, Thursdays, and Mondays, and takes you on a totally unnecessary emotional roller coaster.

It's basically another form of addictive gambling.

I'm pretty sure I'm done with it after this year.

And I'm not even doing that poorly this year so this isn't coming from a bitter place. In my big money league I have most total points, a great team, and I'm a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

I'm just talking from an objective point of view.

I made the decision to step away after this year as well. My teams have actually been as successful this year as they ever have, but ultimately this is a hobby that I simply can't participate in without it negatively affecting many other more important parts of my life.

I know many people who can spend a fair amount of time and money on FFB and not watch the games, not suffer losses in productivity, not become overly affected from an emotional standpoint....but for too many years I've ignored the fact that I'm not that guy. I know this thread was probably only intended to discuss strategy but I do think it's helpful for us to consider our involvement in this hobby from time to time. Ultimately it's your life though...gotta do what you believe is best for you.

I'm exactly the same way. I take losses hard. I get pissed lol. I check stats all day long every few minutes on Sundays. I watch as much of the games as I can and I stress when I'm not able to. I get lazy on Sundays. I go through an emotional roller coaster. I obsess. I am also not a guy that can play this hobby without becoming that way. And while I recognized this last year after 12+ years of playing ff, this year really solidified it for me. Too much time wasted on what really amounts to a hobby that is mostly guided by luck and not skill.

Man, it is like you are in my head (or I am living your "double" life). I have had the exact same thoughts this year, more than ever and have the same situation. I have playoff bound teams. I have one team that has dominated for a handful of years and looks like it won't slow down anytime soon. I win money every year. I have bragging rights....And I'm miserable. A win is monkey off my back and a 48 hour relief from the nagging symptoms until the next games on Thursday. A loss is a day and a half of "how did that happen?" and "I shoulda done this...I should have known better than to do that...".

THis "hobby" does all the negative things you said and, like you said, is, on its best days, nothing more than a random crapshoot disguised as something you think you actually have influence into determining an outcome with.

I don't know if it is because I have played a long time, or the rules have changed, or if its because the games are on more days/evenings than they used to (probably a combo of all this), but I feel the grind more than ever now.

You guys might find it harder to walk away from this stuff than just quitting FF. It depends on how bad your addiction is.I played fantasy sports for 7-9 years. Which I'd guess is about when most people start thinking about walking away. I've been off of fantasy sports entirely for a few years now. I'm still a pretty bad stat junkie. Killing FF definitely helped but I still find myself drawn to box scores, pointless stats and trying to keep up with breaking news. It's still a mega time drain for me. I guess what I need to do is start blocking sites because I don't have the self-control yet to stay away myself.

I've come to realize extreme sports fandome is a pretty terrible pastime/hobby. And I regret most of the time I've put into it. You don't really get anything more out of it than the casual fan and it sends you on that emotional roller coaster for no reason. I think I'd rather have a video game addiction.

It can be hard to get away from even when you realize how pointless it all is. If you've made the decision to walk away, I'd suggest trying to start weaning yourself off of it now, rather than waiting for the end of the season.

A word of advice - make it manageable. Do not be in more than 3 leagues - and if you are only 1-2 should have a decent buy in - and even then under $150. Even better if the number of leagues and buy ins are lower. The game is supposed to be fun - don't make it too serious by paying in more. I am in two leagues - a buy in of $125 and another is free.Be in a league with people you like - work friends, college friends, family, etc - this is part of what drew you in in the first place. Avoid leagues that are just a bunch of guys looking to gamble. I am in a work league and in the free league I filled a spot for a league in need for a friend.

Do not pay for additional information. You can get everything you need on this message board. I do about 30- minutes a day on the message board.

Do not sit in front of the tv all day on Sunday - complete waste of time - especially if you are married and/or have kids.. I have been DVRing some games while I do other things and then watch a 3 hour game in under an hour. I watched an hour of HGTV last night with the wife and went back and watched the 3rd quarter of MNF in like 10 minutes.

this is our 20th year and i spend maybe an hour a week doing fantasy stuff. i rarely watch crappy games even with guys playing. i flip time to time to see how my guys is doing. i rarely check scores during tge day. i will just enjoy watching the games or redzone. usually i pick a game that has one of my main guys.i learned long ago to not obsess over it and not be in too many leagues. i still do pretty well with limited time invested

 

[pantherclub]

Don't trust mock drafts as a gauge of when a player is going to go off the board.

Mock drafts are useless and should just be considered fun rather than draft prep. Missed out on a few guys I really liked this year thinking they'd definitely be on the board a round or two later since they always were in all my mock drafts.

I find mock drafts to be incredibly helpful. Maybe thats just me.

 

[zftcg]

Don't trust mock drafts as a gauge of when a player is going to go off the board.

Mock drafts are useless and should just be considered fun rather than draft prep. Missed out on a few guys I really liked this year thinking they'd definitely be on the board a round or two later since they always were in all my mock drafts.

I find mock drafts to be incredibly helpful. Maybe thats just me.

I actually agree with both of you. They're good for setting general strategy ("If I go RB/RB, I should expect to be deciding between the likes of Cobb, VJax or Fitz for my WR1") but largely useless in terms of individual players. The thing to keep in mind is that it only takes one guy to draft someone early, but it takes the entire league to draft someone late. You can have your ADPs memorized and plan on getting Gronk in the 5th, but if a Pats homer decides he absolutely must have him in the 3rd, all of your planning goes out the window.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I learned to re-draft highly touted rookies who don't live up to their hype after drafting them their first year. I can't tell you how many times I drafted someone like Patterson only to not look their way at the draft in their second year only to see them become stars. I tear my hair out saying "damnit! i knew it! i knew it!"

What are a few recent examples of this? I know I did kind of write off demaryius, though I think he blew up in his third year?

 

[32 Counter Pass]

1. Don't chase rb in the middle of round 1. If you are lucky enough to land Charles, ADP, McCoy, or Forte, consider yourself fortunate. If you sit somewhere in the middle of round 1, take Calvin, Graham, Manning, or Brees. Avoid the temptation of taking a second tier Rb too high. The risk far outweighs the reward.

2. Read and research but follow your instincts. If you regularly watch NFL games, trust your implicit reaction. If a guy can play, he can usually put up fantasy numbers.

3. Unless you are really advanced and have the time and energy to follow all the week to week nuances, avoid streaming positions. It is usually not worth the effort.

4. Go for safety in the first few rounds. If you can come out of the first four rounds with one or two rbs, one qb, and one or two wr, your risk is lower than if you load up on any one position. A swing for the fences mentality is best applied after some anchor players have been obtained and will at least keep you in the mix, opening up trade options, as most teams in keeper/dynasty formats bail for next yearafterone third to one half of the season.

5. In shallow leagues that involve auctions, do not be afraid to spend 90% of your cap on starters, as 10 and 12 teamers have abundant waiver options.

Point 1. I could not agree more. I would add DT, Gronk, AJ, possible Dez to the group of non RB players to consider in round 1. Bottom is draft explosive players. What defines explosiveness: A past history of exceeding 25+ points in a single game multiple times.

Point 2. Again I am in complete agreement. It is YOUR money, trust your own research.

Point 3. This is where sites like FGB can help. Generally start your studs, but consider match ups.

Point 4. We disagree on this point. I say go for explosiveness early, not saftey.

I would add rank RBs that catch the ball above otehr RBs later in drafts if you play in ppr format.

 

[Judge Smails]

[SIZE=medium]What lesson have I learned this year? Well fantasy football leagues and women parallel life in many ways. When you’re young you want to be in as many as you can. Good ones, bad ones….it’s all good![/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium] But the older ya get,you realize you need to find one good one and just stick with it[/SIZE]

Completely agree with this

 

[PR Sparty]

Sorry if already posted (too much to read through here), but in auction format I won't spend the money on "1st rounders" ever again. With injuries and early burnout, I'd much rather draft three $20 RB's instead of one $60 (ADP, Doug Martin, Spiller) RB. I tried that theory this year, after completely blowing my wad on studs in the past, and it's paying off with a 10-1 start this year. In the current world of sharing carries, fear of head injuries or coaches picking favorites, I just can't gamble 40% of a budget on one player any longer.

 

[Chief]

I have decided that I need to "make my own mistakes."

Rather than depend upon the knowledge of experts, I need to draft players that pass MY eyeball test. If I haven't seen them play and/or I don't like the way they play, I need to pass on these players and not let some expert list (including the Draft Dominator) convince me otherwise.

This was the first year that I really strayed from this mantra and it has bit me hard in the butt.

 

[The Dude]

Sorry if already posted (too much to read through here), but in auction format I won't spend the money on "1st rounders" ever again. With injuries and early burnout, I'd much rather draft three $20 RB's instead of one $60 (ADP, Doug Martin, Spiller) RB. I tried that theory this year, after completely blowing my wad on studs in the past, and it's paying off with a 10-1 start this year. In the current world of sharing carries, fear of head injuries or coaches picking favorites, I just can't gamble 40% of a budget on one player any longer.

Understand your point but I think the conclusion is flawed. Granted you are not going to get burnt - but you will be chasing points every week because the 4-6 top picks that panned out will be on somebody else's team.

Of the top 6 leading teams in my league - these guys:

Lynch

Calvin

Mccoy & Graham

Brees & AJ Green

Rodgers

Charles & Bryant

Are all on different teams competing for the playoff spots.

It sounds like you believe you can make up not having a stud by either getting lucky or loading up on lower level talent. The problem is the guys that have the studs will be buying the same talent as you - and there;s the huge whole you are in.

 

[MIMN]

I have decided that I need to "make my own mistakes."

Rather than depend upon the knowledge of experts, I need to draft players that pass MY eyeball test. If I haven't seen them play and/or I don't like the way they play, I need to pass on these players and not let some expert list (including the Draft Dominator) convince me otherwise.

This was the first year that I really strayed from this mantra and it has bit me hard in the butt.

I can't keep up with the Draft Dominator during an auction draft. I need to do more research up front and play it more by feel.

Oh, and my game day coach is on the hot seat. Starting Stills? Are you crazy!?

 

[RaiderBones]

I learned what I have known for years: fantasy football is an evil hobby. It's a total, complete crapshoot to win championships. You can have an amazing team most of the season and then a few key injuries can wreck you. Or players that were absolute studs suddenly go quiet (I'm looking at you Cameron).

It's a hobby that takes a tremendous amount of time and dedication if you want to be consistently good at it...it takes away from productivity at work, takes away time you could be spending with your family, makes you a slave to your tv on Sundays, Thursdays, and Mondays, and takes you on a totally unnecessary emotional roller coaster.

It's basically another form of addictive gambling.

I'm pretty sure I'm done with it after this year.

And I'm not even doing that poorly this year so this isn't coming from a bitter place. In my big money league I have most total points, a great team, and I'm a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

I'm just talking from an objective point of view.

I made the decision to step away after this year as well. My teams have actually been as successful this year as they ever have, but ultimately this is a hobby that I simply can't participate in without it negatively affecting many other more important parts of my life.

I know many people who can spend a fair amount of time and money on FFB and not watch the games, not suffer losses in productivity, not become overly affected from an emotional standpoint....but for too many years I've ignored the fact that I'm not that guy. I know this thread was probably only intended to discuss strategy but I do think it's helpful for us to consider our involvement in this hobby from time to time. Ultimately it's your life though...gotta do what you believe is best for you.

I'm exactly the same way. I take losses hard. I get pissed lol. I check stats all day long every few minutes on Sundays. I watch as much of the games as I can and I stress when I'm not able to. I get lazy on Sundays. I go through an emotional roller coaster. I obsess. I am also not a guy that can play this hobby without becoming that way. And while I recognized this last year after 12+ years of playing ff, this year really solidified it for me. Too much time wasted on what really amounts to a hobby that is mostly guided by luck and not skill.

I use to be this way as well. I use to check my scores every 10-15 minutes getting pissed when I was losing. I did this for years. But last year I had a revelation. I love playing this hobby and I won't ever stop playing it but I have learned to take a step back on Sundays and not be so obsessed. So now I don't check my teams scores at all until all games are done being played on Sunday, plus I don't look to see what players my opponent has started. That way I don't get pissed when one of their players are doing well, I can't get pissed if I don't know who they are starting. This has made my Sunday's so much more enjoyable.

 

[FUBAR]

I've played in redraft leagues for 15 years now and I don't remember the last time the kicker or defense I ended the season with was the one I drafted.

 

[FUBAR]

The game I most enjoyed this year was the Panthers patriots this week. Because while I did have a couple players in it, I had already lost or won so I could just enjoy the game.

 

[VikingFrog]

I learned what I have known for years: fantasy football is an evil hobby. It's a total, complete crapshoot to win championships. You can have an amazing team most of the season and then a few key injuries can wreck you. Or players that were absolute studs suddenly go quiet (I'm looking at you Cameron).

It's a hobby that takes a tremendous amount of time and dedication if you want to be consistently good at it...it takes away from productivity at work, takes away time you could be spending with your family, makes you a slave to your tv on Sundays, Thursdays, and Mondays, and takes you on a totally unnecessary emotional roller coaster.

It's basically another form of addictive gambling.

I'm pretty sure I'm done with it after this year.

And I'm not even doing that poorly this year so this isn't coming from a bitter place. In my big money league I have most total points, a great team, and I'm a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

I'm just talking from an objective point of view.

I made the decision to step away after this year as well. My teams have actually been as successful this year as they ever have, but ultimately this is a hobby that I simply can't participate in without it negatively affecting many other more important parts of my life.

I know many people who can spend a fair amount of time and money on FFB and not watch the games, not suffer losses in productivity, not become overly affected from an emotional standpoint....but for too many years I've ignored the fact that I'm not that guy. I know this thread was probably only intended to discuss strategy but I do think it's helpful for us to consider our involvement in this hobby from time to time. Ultimately it's your life though...gotta do what you believe is best for you.

I'm exactly the same way. I take losses hard. I get pissed lol. I check stats all day long every few minutes on Sundays. I watch as much of the games as I can and I stress when I'm not able to. I get lazy on Sundays. I go through an emotional roller coaster. I obsess. I am also not a guy that can play this hobby without becoming that way. And while I recognized this last year after 12+ years of playing ff, this year really solidified it for me. Too much time wasted on what really amounts to a hobby that is mostly guided by luck and not skill.

I use to be this way as well. I use to check my scores every 10-15 minutes getting pissed when I was losing. I did this for years. But last year I had a revelation. I love playing this hobby and I won't ever stop playing it but I have learned to take a step back on Sundays and not be so obsessed. So now I don't check my teams scores at all until all games are done being played on Sunday, plus I don't look to see what players my opponent has started. That way I don't get pissed when one of their players are doing well, I can't get pissed if I don't know who they are starting. This has made my Sunday's so much more enjoyable.

That's a great concept I've never thought about. Just set your lineup and look at your lineup only.

That way you can concentrate on the good.

Check in after Monday night and either pop the champagne or say "aw shucks".

 

[Flying Elvis]

Don't trust mock drafts as a gauge of when a player is going to go off the board.

Mock drafts are useless and should just be considered fun rather than draft prep. Missed out on a few guys I really liked this year thinking they'd definitely be on the board a round or two later since they always were in all my mock drafts.

There is definitely an element of "experimentation" in mocks. Some will be trolling, some gauging what a team will look like using different draft strategies, others will be clueless noobs. I do see value in mocks if you do them consistently over the few months leading up to the real thing. Doing this generally allows me to see just how much movement my sleepers have.

 

[T with T]

I learned that Fantasy Football is an evil sport and can take you on some emotional rollercoasters no matter how much so called football knowledge you have, you know nothing. Just remember that Sharkies. None of us know anything anymore and it's a complete crapshoot lotto from week to week.. A mumble jumble. I have to say it is getting quite irritating and I have had thoughts of just saying F*** Fantasy football and just quit all of the ####, but the little voice in my head keeps telling me to keep playing.

 

[doyler]

That I need to quit passing on stud QBs and watching my bargain QBs limp off, get benched, or just plain suck

I already unlearned my lesson...if the 2014 draft happened today I would even reach to grab Foles...

 

[Sweet Love]

I learned what I have known for years: fantasy football is an evil hobby. It's a total, complete crapshoot to win championships. You can have an amazing team most of the season and then a few key injuries can wreck you. Or players that were absolute studs suddenly go quiet (I'm looking at you Cameron).

It's a hobby that takes a tremendous amount of time and dedication if you want to be consistently good at it...it takes away from productivity at work, takes away time you could be spending with your family, makes you a slave to your tv on Sundays, Thursdays, and Mondays, and takes you on a totally unnecessary emotional roller coaster.

It's basically another form of addictive gambling.

I'm pretty sure I'm done with it after this year.

And I'm not even doing that poorly this year so this isn't coming from a bitter place. In my big money league I have most total points, a great team, and I'm a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

I'm just talking from an objective point of view.

I made the decision to step away after this year as well. My teams have actually been as successful this year as they ever have, but ultimately this is a hobby that I simply can't participate in without it negatively affecting many other more important parts of my life.

I know many people who can spend a fair amount of time and money on FFB and not watch the games, not suffer losses in productivity, not become overly affected from an emotional standpoint....but for too many years I've ignored the fact that I'm not that guy. I know this thread was probably only intended to discuss strategy but I do think it's helpful for us to consider our involvement in this hobby from time to time. Ultimately it's your life though...gotta do what you believe is best for you.

Interesting...I never realized the need for people to HAVE to watch the games. Maybe I am going to come across as an idiot here, but as much as I enjoy sitting and watching a football game, with the advent of smartphones, I get all I need on a Sunday with a quick "refresh" and can spend time with family without thinking twice. This is the first season since 2002 that I have not worked from home, and that has been tough as I do spend less time researching. Funny thing though, I am doing well in all my leagues (same as in the past) with about 1/2 the preparation.

 

[habsfan]

I learned what I have known for years: fantasy football is an evil hobby. It's a total, complete crapshoot to win championships. You can have an amazing team most of the season and then a few key injuries can wreck you. Or players that were absolute studs suddenly go quiet (I'm looking at you Cameron).

It's a hobby that takes a tremendous amount of time and dedication if you want to be consistently good at it...it takes away from productivity at work, takes away time you could be spending with your family, makes you a slave to your tv on Sundays, Thursdays, and Mondays, and takes you on a totally unnecessary emotional roller coaster.

It's basically another form of addictive gambling.

I'm pretty sure I'm done with it after this year.

And I'm not even doing that poorly this year so this isn't coming from a bitter place. In my big money league I have most total points, a great team, and I'm a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

I'm just talking from an objective point of view.

I made the decision to step away after this year as well. My teams have actually been as successful this year as they ever have, but ultimately this is a hobby that I simply can't participate in without it negatively affecting many other more important parts of my life.

I know many people who can spend a fair amount of time and money on FFB and not watch the games, not suffer losses in productivity, not become overly affected from an emotional standpoint....but for too many years I've ignored the fact that I'm not that guy. I know this thread was probably only intended to discuss strategy but I do think it's helpful for us to consider our involvement in this hobby from time to time. Ultimately it's your life though...gotta do what you believe is best for you.

Interesting...I never realized the need for people to HAVE to watch the games. Maybe I am going to come across as an idiot here, but as much as I enjoy sitting and watching a football game, with the advent of smartphones, I get all I need on a Sunday with a quick "refresh" and can spend time with family without thinking twice. This is the first season since 2002 that I have not worked from home, and that has been tough as I do spend less time researching. Funny thing though, I am doing well in all my leagues (same as in the past) with about 1/2 the preparation.

For me the "law of diminishing returns" definitely kicked in a couple years ago and I've been clawing back my time/energy investment significantly without a proportionate drop in results.

As far as not being glued to the TV and the smartphone thing, I'm of two minds. I don't want to "care" to the point where every Sunday on the calendar is blocked off but on the other hand, if you're at a point where you're just conveniently and efficiently tracking fantasy results remotely, have you become a sort of floor trader? They don't care about pork bellies or IBM - those are just generic commodities that go up and down in value. I don't want to feel like that about football.

I listen to those NFL mobile commercials about "poor Dave" having to go to his daughter's piano recital but THANK GOD he won't miss anything - except the actual recital that is...

 

[LawFitz]

Studs >>> VBD

(I learned this lesson years ago, but I think this is the year if finally hit the masses)

 

[battlebaby]

When it comes to drafting a QB, never pass over a proven commodity for an upside play. Specifically...I drafted Kaepernick over Stafford.

 

[jbalicki10]

In a 12 teamer and your 1st (Spiller) 3rd( Roddy White), 4th(Amendola) are all busts it doesn't mean your out of it. But be damn sure your later picks are damn good ones or you are indeed out.

 

[fightingillini]

Sorry if already posted (too much to read through here), but in auction format I won't spend the money on "1st rounders" ever again. With injuries and early burnout, I'd much rather draft three $20 RB's instead of one $60 (ADP, Doug Martin, Spiller) RB. I tried that theory this year, after completely blowing my wad on studs in the past, and it's paying off with a 10-1 start this year. In the current world of sharing carries, fear of head injuries or coaches picking favorites, I just can't gamble 40% of a budget on one player any longer.

Not sure I agree with you here. You win fantasy titles with stars, and you need to bid enough to get some on your team.

In my experience, drafting a balanced roster of 2nd and 3rd tier guys is a 4th-6th place strategy. It's much easier to draft studs and find guys that can fill in the rest of your roster.

I can understand if you don't want to spend $60 on Peterson, since there are few RBs that are absolutes. But if you're going to take the approach of drafting a bigger quantity of cheaper RBs, then you HAVE to spend big on studs like Megatron, Jimmy Graham and Peyton. Drafting 3 $20 backs won't give you the cap flexibilty to win the stud WR/TE/QBs. You need to spend big bucks on stars, regardless of position.

 

[LawFitz]

You need to spend big bucks on stars, regardless of position.

As long as scoring and starting lineup systems are balanced, this is the correct answer in modern fantasy NFL.

 

[Banger]

Never build a team around WRs.

I think you just got the wrong WRS. In today's NFl, I have been focussing on WR-heavy teams for about 6 years now and they blwo every other "normal" team I have out of the water in terms of wins, consistency, etc. Unless you have had Peterson or Rice or Foster for the last 3-4 years (until this year, of couse), You haven't fared nearly as well as if you have been holding the Calvins and Waynes and Roddys.

agreed and have especially adjusted my strategy in my keeper league as well. Stud wr's tend to have better year to year consistency and better longevity than RBs...going into this year the top RBs were AP, Martin, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Rice...how many will be top 5 next year? The top wr's going into this year were Calvin, AJ, Julio Jones, Dez, and I'd expect all of them to be top 5ish next year as well....Even more important IMO are the top 2 stud TEs (Gronk/Graham).

 

[SameSongNDance]

You can lean on rookies.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

never again will I have RB Chris Johnson

if I have a gut feeling about a player - GET HIM ( Zac Stacy )

stud RB's are the rarest thing in FF, horde them

You will never again have the number 10 PPG RB? (ymmv in PPR)

 

[FUBAR]

expecting rookies / young players to automatically improve the next year will destroy your team.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

the waiver wire is by far the most important thing.

qb - foles

rb - stacy, rainey

wr -allen, cooper, douglas

te - julius, cameron,reed

on and on.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Agreed that the waiver wire is very important. You could build a championship roster as shown above. I think the most important thing is to sell off the big names if they underperform, especially RB's. Don't wait and wait on them forever hoping they turn things around. Get what you can for them and move on. The waiver wire is full of guys who will outperform them regularly. Don't get married to the team you drafted. And look to pick up guys during free waivers ahead of the big blind bid waivers. It's a little risky, but realistically it's the best way to get the emerging talent off the wire. Snap it up for free ahead of the bidding war.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Don't get married to the team you drafted. And look to pick up guys during free waivers ahead of the big blind bid waivers.

Good calls. I drafted Hillman in the 9th (stupidly) and Golden Tate in the 11th. I dropped Hillman in week 3 the day of the Chiefs game vs. the Eagles and scooped up the KC DEF. I dropped Tate on the Sunday before Stacy went for 14-78, anticipating that he would take the role in the future. Would have liked to keep Tate, but he's just not significant enough. Very glad I took the chance on Stacy. I think that these kind of anticipatory, pre-emptive waiver claims are really useful.

 

[FUBAR]

the waiver wire is by far the most important thing.

qb - foles

rb - stacy, rainey

wr -allen, cooper, douglas

te - julius, cameron,reed

on and on.

which raises another one - don't give up too early on a guy you like. I had Foles in a 32 team league but dealt him away, cheaper than I would have if I had waited.

 

[SWC]

i learned that i was wrong and that hate is wrong oh wait that was mr sato in karate kid ii in 1986 bam right there from the old swcer take that to the bank brohans

 

[battlebaby]

If a guy gets named the starting RB, pick that guy up. Had the opportunity to pick up Morris last year and passed (didn't want to drop Hillman because I liked his "upside" ), so I got deja vu this year when I heard Stacy was named the starter in STL. Dropped BJGE, grabbed Stacy, and have been patting myself on the back ever since.

Also learned to not sit on your waiver claim waiting for that "stud" pickup to happen. I did this for years...waiting to have the top waiver claim and then waiting for breakout waiver wire gems like DeMarco Murray back in 2011, but I never seemed to get that top claim at the right time. Now, if I think a guy looks good, I claim him and forget about my position in the claim order. It's allowed me to play the waiver wire a lot better and helped keep my team alive after getting wrecked by injuries and bust picks early in the season (lost Amendola, then Julio, Sproles was disappointing, Kaep was killing me, got Locker and then lost him...twice, the list goes on...).

 

[iamkoza]

I dont know if I have the balls to do this next year.... but in 0.5ppr or higher I say spend your money on a stud QB and WR's.... then take as many highly touted rookie RB's as you can... (lacy, bernard, bell, stacy, ellington etc. could have been had cheap or were WW pickups). Two years in a row I've my $40+ RB auction bids have all been disasters (2012 mccoy and murray, 2013 spiller and martin)

 

[Ack88]

Another item I thought of; please forgive if posted earlier- always do your own projections/rankings before reading others. Perhaps give yourself a few weeks after the season ends and then dive in. Only look at other rankings after you develop your own feel, otherwise, it is subconsciously easier to follow the consensus or be unduly influenced by consensus. Then compare your own instincts with those of others. My feeling is that by doing your own rankings first, you are more likely to develop at least a framework of your strategy, rather just falling in line with the masses, who as we see- and I include myself in this description- sometimes fall prey to a groupthink mentality. I know this will be a change I'm making this offseason.

 

[zftcg]

When it comes to drafting a QB, never pass over a proven commodity for an upside play. Specifically...I drafted Kaepernick over Stafford.

Ha! I came very close to doing the same, but then I decided that since it was close and I'm a Lions fan, I might as well use that as the tie-breaker. Was questioning my decision after Week 1, but have been happy ever since.

 

[Rennertime]

One thing that helped me this year was watching closely the preseason games of the top 12 or so ranked RB's. Watching for explosive running and how they interacted with their O line. Pretty quickly I was able to see that S Jax, T Rich and Ray Rice were in for trouble. They looked very stagnant. Obviously CJ was the exception as he looked great but ended up a bust. Because of this I was also able to find good value in guys like Bush, Gore and Forte in the second and third rounds.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I just try to not let wins or losses ruin my day/weekend/week. I only play one league but it's a decent money league. I won the superbowl once two years ago and that was like getting a monkey off of my back. Now I can just enjoy the hobby and let the cards fall where they may. Once I actually recognized how badly it was affecting my moods I decided to "lighten up Francis..."

Also I don't play playoff leagues at all. Once the fantasy season is over I try to just enjoy regular football through the playoffs and superbowl.

This is similar to my situation. I used to take fantasy football way too seriously, and part of the reason I did was because I had never won a championship.

Beyond that, I was the #1 seed for three straight years from 2007-2009, and came away with only 1 playoff win and zero titles. In 2011, I recovered from a 1-4 start to go 10-1 the rest of the way and win my first title. Having that monkey off of my back I was able to step back and enjoy the game more. My emotional reaction, win or lose, is far less volatile than it used to be, because I think, "No matter what happens I've already won one. My name's on the trophy and nobody can take it off."

That said, this zen-like approach to fantasy football has coincided with a lot of winning for me. I went on to win back-to-back in 2012, and am now 10-1 and going for a three-peat. It will be interesting to see if I can maintain this c'est la vie, carefree attitude once my luck runs out and I start losing. I would like to think that I will. Winning a title really helped me to put things into perspective.

 

[msudaisy26]

1. Don't chase rb in the middle of round 1. If you are lucky enough to land Charles, ADP, McCoy, or Forte, consider yourself fortunate. If you sit somewhere in the middle of round 1, take Calvin, Graham, Manning, or Brees. Avoid the temptation of taking a second tier Rb too high. The risk far outweighs the reward.

2. Read and research but follow your instincts. If you regularly watch NFL games, trust your implicit reaction. If a guy can play, he can usually put up fantasy numbers.

3. Unless you are really advanced and have the time and energy to follow all the week to week nuances, avoid streaming positions. It is usually not worth the effort.

4. Go for safety in the first few rounds. If you can come out of the first four rounds with one or two rbs, one qb, and one or two wr, your risk is lower than if you load up on any one position. A swing for the fences mentality is best applied after some anchor players have been obtained and will at least keep you in the mix, opening up trade options, as most teams in keeper/dynasty formats bail for next yearafterone third to one half of the season.

5. In shallow leagues that involve auctions, do not be afraid to spend 90% of your cap on starters, as 10 and 12 teamers have abundant waiver options.

Point 1. I could not agree more. I would add DT, Gronk, AJ, possible Dez to the group of non RB players to consider in round 1. Bottom is draft explosive players. What defines explosiveness: A past history of exceeding 25+ points in a single game multiple times.

Point 2. Again I am in complete agreement. It is YOUR money, trust your own research.

Point 3. This is where sites like FGB can help. Generally start your studs, but consider match ups.

Point 4. We disagree on this point. I say go for explosiveness early, not saftey.

I would add rank RBs that catch the ball above otehr RBs later in drafts if you play in ppr format.

Point 1 is why there is no fool proof strategy. McCoy was around pick 6 this year behind Martin, Charles, ADP, Foster and Calvin. Forte was a late first early second round pick, Lynch was a late first round pick. All these guys are producing.

Everyone keeps saying they are drafting receivers and tight ends earlier because look at guys like Moreno and Stacy that out performing guys drafted in the first round. Well guys like Desean Jackson, Andre Johnson, and Antonio Brown are out performing guys like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobb.

Go with your gut. If you think you are good at finding receivers late then stick with it. If you can find the diamond in the rough at tight end in round 9 or later then wait. If you can wait on running backs because you are master of the waiver wire or trades then have at it. No one draft strategy will work for in every spot and for every person.

 

[Bobby Guano]

I just try to not let wins or losses ruin my day/weekend/week. I only play one league but it's a decent money league. I won the superbowl once two years ago and that was like getting a monkey off of my back. Now I can just enjoy the hobby and let the cards fall where they may. Once I actually recognized how badly it was affecting my moods I decided to "lighten up Francis..."

Also I don't play playoff leagues at all. Once the fantasy season is over I try to just enjoy regular football through the playoffs and superbowl.

This is similar to my situation. I used to take fantasy football way too seriously, and part of the reason I did was because I had never won a championship.

Beyond that, I was the #1 seed for three straight years from 2007-2009, and came away with only 1 playoff win and zero titles. In 2011, I recovered from a 1-4 start to go 10-1 the rest of the way and win my first title. Having that monkey off of my back I was able to step back and enjoy the game more. My emotional reaction, win or lose, is far less volatile than it used to be, because I think, "No matter what happens I've already won one. My name's on the trophy and nobody can take it off."

That said, this zen-like approach to fantasy football has coincided with a lot of winning for me. I went on to win back-to-back in 2012, and am now 10-1 and going for a three-peat. It will be interesting to see if I can maintain this c'est la vie, carefree attitude once my luck runs out and I start losing. I would like to think that I will. Winning a title really helped me to put things into perspective.

Finally won a title in 2011 and had the same thing going on until this season.

I've got the highest scoring team but only a 6-5 record and have been getting hammered. Was cruising along and then hit the buzzsaw 4 weeks in a row and put up a complete turd last week to lose 4 out of the last 5. I have really been stressing lately and am really going to make an effort chill out this weekend win or lose.

I already knew but got a refresher this season....Head to head leagues are really just a total crap shoot and luck is a far greater determining factor than skill.

You can draft well and make great WW moves all season but that doesn't mean #### when every single week you are playing the one team that completely blows up.

 

[Nucker101]

I prefer auction formats so I'll say:

1. Draft a Stud QB/TE(plugging in a Rodgers/Brees/Peyton/Graham/Gronk/Thomas every week just makes life so much easier and gives you a nice advantage pretty much every week).

2. Don't spend big on RB's, maybe draft your favorite stud RB and then try to limit spending after that and draft some high upside depth RB's to fill out your roster

3. Don't be afraid to load up on injured/suspended players when they're available cheap as bench options even if it will hurt your depth early(Gordon/L.Bell/Blackmon/A.Brown all had some big weeks this season and were worth holding onto, at least until Blackmon ####ed up again).

 

[ZWK]

1. Don't buy into the preseason hype. A lot of smoke gets blown in the offseason about things like Zach Sudfeld being the hot new TE, Ronnie Hillman being #1 on the depth chart, or Miles Austin figuring out proper conditioning for his hamstrings. You have to separate the hype from the fact, and recognize that Julius Thomas is the TE on the rise, Moreno is the back to own in Denver, etc.

2. Don't waste roster space on low-value handcuffs. Really, what's the point of sitting on someone like Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, or Christine Michael all year? The only handcuffs worth owning are guys like Rashad Jennings and Joique Bell who get their chance and run with it.

3. Identify the players who are headed for a big season. This is key. LeSean McCoy vs. C.J. Spiller may feel like a toss-up, but trust me, you want McCoy. Of course, you only have one first round pick, but there are other top players throughout the draft for you to find, like DeSean Jackson in the 6th or Knowshon Moreno at the end of the draft. These kinds of players will give you a formidable team, however you get them. If the numbers say to go with Tom Brady at QB over Peyton Manning but your gut says otherwise, trust your gut and take Manning (and don't be afraid to reach for him). If your gut says to take Trent Richardson at RB over Matt Forte but the numbers say otherwise, go with the numbers and take Forte.

4. Don't worry too much about players who have short-term injuries in the preseason. A lot of people panicked when Jordy Nelson had knee surgery in camp, but he played as strong as ever from week 1 onward. The year before it was Adrian Peterson that everyone shied away from, even though he was well on his way to being back from his ACL injury and returning to his same old elite self. The injuries that you want to watch out for are the lingering injuries that sap a player's effectiveness (like Roddy White's ankle sprain) and the ones that knock a player out for the season. Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, and Reggie Wayne might look like a strong WR corps on paper, but it doesn't do you much good to have those names on your roster if their names are also on the IR list.

5. The right sit-start decisions are just as important as drafting well and playing the wire. If you're going to roll with someone like Pierre Thomas as part of a RB2 by committee, then be sure to start him in those multi-touchdown games against teams like Chicago and Dallas. You may feel like a "shark" picking Bobby Rainey up off the waiver wire, but the real "shark move" is to put him in your lineup when he goes off for 160 & 3. You don't want to get caught "chasing points" and leave someone like Eddie Royal in your lineup all season just because he starts it off with a couple big games, but don't ditch him until the well has run dry - savvy owners at least kept him in their lineups for week 2, when he followed up his 2-touchdown week 1 performance with a 3 TD game against the Eagles.

 

[bucsbaby]

So, to summarize: Find a working crystal ball. Project to mid-season to see who all the best players are. Set your draft strategy accordingly. :championship:

 

[cobalt_27]

1. Don't buy into the preseason hype. A lot of smoke gets blown in the offseason about things like Zach Sudfeld being the hot new TE, Ronnie Hillman being #1 on the depth chart, or Miles Austin figuring out proper conditioning for his hamstrings. You have to separate the hype from the fact, and recognize that Julius Thomas is the TE on the rise, Moreno is the back to own in Denver, etc.

Not sure what you have to say in your post reflects what we've learned or just represents regurgitation of traditional wisdom. But, let's start here. Rejecting preseason hype causes folks to ignore and miss out on Zac Stacy, Gio Bernard, Eddie Lacy, TY, Jordan Cameron, Jordan Reed, etc.

2. Don't waste roster space on low-value handcuffs. Really, what's the point of sitting on someone like Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, or Christine Michael all year? The only handcuffs worth owning are guys like Rashad Jennings and Joique Bell who get their chance and run with it.

Retrospective cherry-picking is always spot on. If you reject the idea of picking up handcuffs, just say so. But, Pierce and Brown got their chance last year and ran with it. Obviously, not so much this year. But, nothing in Rashad's or Bell's history suggested they were more capable of running with it than the other guys.

3. Identify the players who are headed for a big season. This is key. LeSean McCoy vs. C.J. Spiller may feel like a toss-up, but trust me, you want McCoy. Of course, you only have one first round pick, but there are other top players throughout the draft for you to find, like DeSean Jackson in the 6th or Knowshon Moreno at the end of the draft. These kinds of players will give you a formidable team, however you get them. If the numbers say to go with Tom Brady at QB over Peyton Manning but your gut says otherwise, trust your gut and take Manning (and don't be afraid to reach for him). If your gut says to take Trent Richardson at RB over Matt Forte but the numbers say otherwise, go with the numbers and take Forte.

Well, now this is fun. What numbers suggested Brady over Manning? It's like you're making stuff up to fit an argument that even a five-year-old has mastered. More (points) is better. Get good players. How is this something you've just learned this season?

4. Don't worry too much about players who have short-term injuries in the preseason. A lot of people panicked when Jordy Nelson had knee surgery in camp, but he played as strong as ever from week 1 onward. The year before it was Adrian Peterson that everyone shied away from, even though he was well on his way to being back from his ACL injury and returning to his same old elite self. The injuries that you want to watch out for are the lingering injuries that sap a player's effectiveness (like Roddy White's ankle sprain) and the ones that knock a player out for the season. Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, and Reggie Wayne might look like a strong WR corps on paper, but it doesn't do you much good to have those names on your roster if their names are also on the IR list.

So, what you're saying is injured players aren't helpful? Please tell me, what were the nagging injuries Julio, Cobb, and Wayne had preseason that should have had us on alert for their unfortunate trips to the IR.

5. The right sit-start decisions are just as important as drafting well and playing the wire. If you're going to roll with someone like Pierre Thomas as part of a RB2 by committee, then be sure to start him in those multi-touchdown games against teams like Chicago and Dallas. You may feel like a "shark" picking Bobby Rainey up off the waiver wire, but the real "shark move" is to put him in your lineup when he goes off for 160 & 3. You don't want to get caught "chasing points" and leave someone like Eddie Royal in your lineup all season just because he starts it off with a couple big games, but don't ditch him until the well has run dry - savvy owners at least kept him in their lineups for week 2, when he followed up his 2-touchdown week 1 performance with a 3 TD game against the Eagles.

I disagree. You might explain about 3% of the variance in scoring by making exceptional lineup decisions over your peers. Important to get any advantage you can, but this is over-rated and certainly not more so than drafting and waiver wire work.

Of course, the way you make your presentation, these lineup configurations would dominate because every season occurs in some ZWK time warp where you can see how everything unfolds and then say "I knew that would happen."

The LHUCKS force is strong with this one.

 

[ZWK]

I thought this was the hindsight advice thread?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So, to summarize: Find a working crystal ball. Project to mid-season to see who all the best players are. Set your draft strategy accordingly. :championship:

exactly.

 

[Franknbeans]

Value can only be determined after the season