Lets discuss these UNDER the RADAR rb's. (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Ok i know all these guys rank very very low on most peoples rankings.

But a few of these guys have showed us just last year they have the ability to put up some very useful rb2/3 numbers.

I been buying as many of these guys i could this offseason (aside from JLEW) with the hopes of them BLOWIN UP.

Havent paid any ridiculous prices yet on them, and i think now is the time to get in on these guys for 2nd round picks or maybe 3rd's.

What do you fellas see as far as value on these guys.

FARGAS: could be the starter again in OAK, which he did very well in part time duty.



GRAHAM: I think Caddy is TOAST, i look for them to draft another rb kinda in the mid rounds but i look for Graham to return and almost be your everydown rb, (if we still have those in the NFL) I like him more than most of these guys as he catches well and runs as hard as your average 2 down rb.

BRADSHAW: Yes we know he is a backup at this point, but what i saw during the playoffs was a mixture of Westbrook/MBIII, which made me do some research upon MR BRADSHAW, which i found out alot of scouts said he had the BEST vision of all the rb's coming out last year. And he sure runs like that too. I see myself the good burst and determination....All in all, i can see him being a 04-05 Tiki Barber type.



LEWIS: put up some very very good numbers, in common circles most view him as a candidate to be replaced...is it the time to jump on this value?

Whats you fellas take on these BELOW THE RADAR rb's?

 

[saintfool]

I like Graham. He proved to be both effective and a workhorse for the Buccs once Cadillac went down. Bennett re-signed last week but he's not a starter. Cadillac is rehabbing but remains a question mark. Graham, however, just needs a decent contract to keep him there.

Fargas may be the RB1 in Oakland but the entire offense remains a big question mark.

Bradshaw is RBBC with the lion's share going to Jacobs. Valuable in a PPR format.

Jamal ran well behind a great o-line. He might not be a long term solution but he's a probably got another 2 years in him, if he stays in Cleveland.

 

[sheerterror]

Bradshaw is far from under the radar. This guy gets more hype on this board for a handful of decent games (albeit he definitely runs with authority) than almost anyone I've seen. If anything, I think he may be overvalued for this upcoming season, especially if Ward is resigned.

 

[einstein2u]

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

 

[Ripleys]

add DeAngelo to that list as Foster won't be back next year in Carolina...

 

[FUBAR]

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

Your < is backwards.

 

[JPeso]

Out of the four you mentioned, I would rank it like this in a dynasty: Lewis, Graham, Fargas, Bradshaw.

Add to that list guys like KJ, DeAngelo, Norwood, Rudi and the 20-30 tier in dynasties starts to fill out.

 

[JPeso]

Depending on what the Cards do in the draft, Edge could be a solid RB3 to target in redrafts.

 

[FUBAR]

Ok i know all these guys rank very very low on most peoples rankings.

But a few of these guys have showed us just last year they have the ability to put up some very useful rb2/3 numbers.

I been buying as many of these guys i could this offseason (aside from JLEW) with the hopes of them BLOWIN UP.

Havent paid any ridiculous prices yet on them, and i think now is the time to get in on these guys for 2nd round picks or maybe 3rd's.

What do you fellas see as far as value on these guys.

FARGAS: could be the starter again in OAK, which he did very well in part time duty.



GRAHAM: I think Caddy is TOAST, i look for them to draft another rb kinda in the mid rounds but i look for Graham to return and almost be your everydown rb, (if we still have those in the NFL) I like him more than most of these guys as he catches well and runs as hard as your average 2 down rb.

BRADSHAW: Yes we know he is a backup at this point, but what i saw during the playoffs was a mixture of Westbrook/MBIII, which made me do some research upon MR BRADSHAW, which i found out alot of scouts said he had the BEST vision of all the rb's coming out last year. And he sure runs like that too. I see myself the good burst and determination....All in all, i can see him being a 04-05 Tiki Barber type.



LEWIS: put up some very very good numbers, in common circles most view him as a candidate to be replaced...is it the time to jump on this value?

Whats you fellas take on these BELOW THE RADAR rb's?

Graham is very much not below the radar, neither is Lewis in redrafts - might still be good value, but we know about them. WSL4:

3.02. Fiddles - Jamal Lewis, RB19, CLE

4.08. Jeff Pasquino - Earnest Graham, RB23, TB

6.14. beachbum - Ahmad Bradshaw, RB32, NYG

8.07. FUBAR - Justin Fargas, RB38, OAK

 

[JPeso]

WSL4:

3.02. Fiddles - Jamal Lewis, RB19, CLE

4.08. Jeff Pasquino - Earnest Graham, RB23, TB

6.14. beachbum - Ahmad Bradshaw, RB32, NYG

8.07. FUBAR - Justin Fargas, RB38, OAK

Dynasty?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I don't see how any RB drafted in the Top 40 of Survivor Leagues is under the radar.

 

[FUBAR]

WSL4:

3.02. Fiddles - Jamal Lewis, RB19, CLE

4.08. Jeff Pasquino - Earnest Graham, RB23, TB

6.14. beachbum - Ahmad Bradshaw, RB32, NYG

8.07. FUBAR - Justin Fargas, RB38, OAK

Dynasty?

redraft, survivor.

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

 

[Fodasme69]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested him last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

1-2 years.....MAX. He's already 28.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

 

[FUBAR]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

I'd be willing to say that you're wrong. Just don't ask me which ones will still be around

 

[ThePittbully]

I wouldnt say any of these guys are "under the radar", but Graham is undervalued IMO. Ive found that he is not really commanding the value he deserves as many people think he will either be replaced or partnered in a RBBC next year and I dont think that will be the case. Bradshaw is not even close to under the radar, especially not around here. If anything he is grossly overhyped and most people here have named him the Giants #1 back already, assuming the Giants will simply toss Brandon Jacobs to the curb

 

[einstein2u]

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

Your < is backwards.

oops graham>jlew>fargas>bradshaw

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I will say this, i landed alot of these guys recently in deals.

But the one the HARDEST to trade for is A.BRADSHAW.

Some people asked me for a mid/late 1st in some leagues, which maybe close to his value seeing as he may be as good as of an option than the later tier of rookie rb's.

Been landing GRAHAM for high 2nd to mid 2nds with something threw in.

Fargas people been holdin onto from what it seems to see where he lands, but now alot view him as a starter, i havent tried to trade for him yet since he signed.

Jamal Lewis, I hadnt attempted to offer a deal for yet.

 

[TaxMan]

I will say this, i landed alot of these guys recently in deals.But the one the HARDEST to trade for is A.BRADSHAW.Some people asked me for a mid/late 1st in some leagues, which maybe close to his value seeing as he may be as good as of an option than the later tier of rookie rb's.Been landing GRAHAM for high 2nd to mid 2nds with something threw in.Fargas people been holdin onto from what it seems to see where he lands, but now alot view him as a starter, i havent tried to trade for him yet since he signed.Jamal Lewis, I hadnt attempted to offer a deal for yet.

Wow. didnt know Graham could be had that cheap, considering his numbers as a starter were pretty good. Bradshaw didnt even start a single game.fwiw, i'm a Bradshaw owner in 3 out of 4 dynasties, and i think his value is a mid to late first round rookie pick myself.

 

[awesomeness]

if i owned bradshaw, i would sell now. If you can find a guy who thinks like this:

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

you should be able to get a lot for Bradshaw too.

 

[Bayhawks]

if i owned bradshaw, i would sell now. If you can find a guy who thinks like this:

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

you should be able to get a lot for Bradshaw too.

Huh? according to that, Bradshaw is the worst of the 4 RBs. Graham is greater than Lewis is greater than Fargas is greater than Bradshaw.

 

[jeter23]

if i owned bradshaw, i would sell now. If you can find a guy who thinks like this:

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

you should be able to get a lot for Bradshaw too.

Huh? according to that, Bradshaw is the worst of the 4 RBs. Graham is greater than Lewis is greater than Fargas is greater than Bradshaw.

You've got it backwards Bayhawks, but einstein did too. He went back and changed his <s.

 

[madd futher]

You could make a good argument for (or against) the ranking order of any of these guys - including DeAngelo, because all HAVE performed with some measure of success in the NFL so far, yet all are facing question marks of some kind. I submit that this tier is where RB selection becomes way more dicey.

And I also believe that this is the tier that the top 4 ROOKIE rbs should fall into (Jones, Stewart, Mendenhall, McFaddens - again, these are too close in talent to rank in any DECISIVE order given that the talent is very close to equal and we don't know exactly what situations they will be drafted into).

I wonder how man IF YOU AGREE with me on this, or if you would draft the big 4 rooks HIGHER (OR LOWER) than these guys in a dynasty or deeper keeper league), assuming some of these guys were non-rostered?

Without diverting this thread too much, I'd really like to have some opinions about this.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

You could make a good argument for (or against) the ranking order of any of these guys - including DeAngelo, because all HAVE performed with some measure of success in the NFL so far, yet all are facing question marks of some kind. I submit that this tier is where RB selection becomes way more dicey.And I also believe that this is the tier that the top 4 ROOKIE rbs should fall into (Jones, Stewart, Mendenhall, McFaddens - again, these are too close in talent to rank in any DECISIVE order given that the talent is very close to equal and we don't know exactly what situations they will be drafted into). I wonder how man IF YOU AGREE with me on this, or if you would draft the big 4 rooks HIGHER (OR LOWER) than these guys in a dynasty or deeper keeper league), assuming some of these guys were non-rostered? Without diverting this thread too much, I'd really like to have some opinions about this.

Dynasty i would draft all of the TOP 4 ROOKIE RUNNERS before these guys mentioned.I think thats why "so far that i know" Bradshaw being the hardest to deal for will cost somewhere between a high 2nd to a late/mid 1st. Graham is undervalued right now and can be had for cheaper from certian owners. But his value is around a low 1st as well. Fargas and Jlew value is somewhere in the 2nd round as far as rookie draft pick goes.NOW>>>> to get DMAC/MENDENHALL/STEWERT/JONES you will need a top 4 rookie pick, I highly highly doubt anyone would trade you a top 4 pick for any of the Undervalued rb's mentioned.In a initial startup draft i can see 3 of those rb's going before the 5th round, maybe even 4th. All these guys mentioned will be late picks and thats if there situation stays the way it is now. I really only see one or 2 of those guys with a whole season of lasting power. Others are nice rb4 types to have on the end of the bench.

 

[az_prof]

if i owned bradshaw, i would sell now. If you can find a guy who thinks like this:

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

you should be able to get a lot for Bradshaw too.

Huh? according to that, Bradshaw is the worst of the 4 RBs. Graham is greater than Lewis is greater than Fargas is greater than Bradshaw.

I disagree. J. Lewis is 29 with a lot of tread on the tires. If I project out three years I don't see much beyond this year for him. Fargas is 28 and has missed time with injury almost every year he has played; while I like him for this coming year I don't expect him to play 16 games and I don't expect him to be the starter beyond this season, if that (M. Bush will push him). Graham was consistent but didn't "wow" me last year. He also turns 28 this year and so you have to factor that into long term value. Again, I see him the likely starter this year but I don't see him holding the job for the next three years.Bradshaw has the most upside of these guys IMO and he did WOW when he got a chance this year. Bradshaw is only 22--much younger than all of these other guys.

 

[GSWarriors]

if i owned bradshaw, i would sell now. If you can find a guy who thinks like this:

graham<jlewis<fargas<bradshaw.

you should be able to get a lot for Bradshaw too.

Huh? according to that, Bradshaw is the worst of the 4 RBs. Graham is greater than Lewis is greater than Fargas is greater than Bradshaw.

I disagree. J. Lewis is 29 with a lot of tread on the tires. If I project out three years I don't see much beyond this year for him. Fargas is 28 and has missed time with injury almost every year he has played; while I like him for this coming year I don't expect him to play 16 games and I don't expect him to be the starter beyond this season, if that (M. Bush will push him). Graham was consistent but didn't "wow" me last year. He also turns 28 this year and so you have to factor that into long term value. Again, I see him the likely starter this year but I don't see him holding the job for the next three years.Bradshaw has the most upside of these guys IMO and he did WOW when he got a chance this year. Bradshaw is only 22--much younger than all of these other guys.

 

[aposulli]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

 

[sheerterror]

You could make a good argument for (or against) the ranking order of any of these guys - including DeAngelo, because all HAVE performed with some measure of success in the NFL so far, yet all are facing question marks of some kind. I submit that this tier is where RB selection becomes way more dicey.

And I also believe that this is the tier that the top 4 ROOKIE rbs should fall into (Jones, Stewart, Mendenhall, McFaddens - again, these are too close in talent to rank in any DECISIVE order given that the talent is very close to equal and we don't know exactly what situations they will be drafted into).

I wonder how man IF YOU AGREE with me on this, or if you would draft the big 4 rooks HIGHER (OR LOWER) than these guys in a dynasty or deeper keeper league), assuming some of these guys were non-rostered?

Without diverting this thread too much, I'd really like to have some opinions about this.

Dynasty i would draft all of the TOP 4 ROOKIE RUNNERS before these guys mentioned.I think thats why "so far that i know" Bradshaw being the hardest to deal for will cost somewhere between a high 2nd to a late/mid 1st. Graham is undervalued right now and can be had for cheaper from certian owners. But his value is around a low 1st as well. Fargas and Jlew value is somewhere in the 2nd round as far as rookie draft pick goes.

NOW>>>> to get DMAC/MENDENHALL/STEWERT/JONES you will need a top 4 rookie pick, I highly highly doubt anyone would trade you a top 4 pick for any of the Undervalued rb's mentioned.

In a initial startup draft i can see 3 of those rb's going before the 5th round, maybe even 4th. All these guys mentioned will be late picks and thats if there situation stays the way it is now. I really only see one or 2 of those guys with a whole season of lasting power. Others are nice rb4 types to have on the end of the bench.

I'd absolutely take the top 4 rookies over any of these guys, based alone on upside. While Bradshaw might have the upside equivalent to 1 or 2 of the top tier rookie RBs, he looks to be stuck in a 3 headed RB monster for the time being - yep, the same one that worked well enough to get the Giants to the Superbowl. In initial dynasty drafts last year, Peterson was, to my knowledge, a consensus top 10 pick, while I saw Lynch go in the 2nd round. Depending on the situation that the top tier RBs land on, I expect McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall to all be gone by the 2nd round, and Jones by the 3rd, the latest.

 

[massraider]

Fargas depends on what you think of Michael Bush. If you think Bush is a potential stud, then stay away. If you think he is a bust, then draft Fargas with confidence. One caveat: Tom cable must stay as line coach. If the Kiffin thing blows up, and he leaves, and takes Cable and the ZBS with him, then I'd stay away.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

He has a chance - but I'm not convinced he lasts that long.RBs just get beat up, and the avg. career for a RB is 4 years.Even if he is still playing then, he might be in a committee and not be the front starter.Look at the 2001 list in the Shark Pool and see how many are still in the league, let alone starting.I counted two, IIRC.

 

[FUBAR]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

He has a chance - but I'm not convinced he lasts that long.RBs just get beat up, and the avg. career for a RB is 4 years.

Even if he is still playing then, he might be in a committee and not be the front starter.

Look at the 2001 list in the Shark Pool and see how many are still in the league, let alone starting.

I counted two, IIRC.

There are plenty on that list still playing. 6 of the top 15 are still in the league, 4 are starting.1 Faulk STL

2 James IND

3 George TEN

4 Dillon CIN

5 Taylor JAC

6 Martin NYJ

7 Davis WAS

8 Green GB

9 Williams NO

10 Anderson ATL

11 Stewart DET

12 Lamar Smith MIA

13 Lewis BAL

14 LT SD

15 Staley PHI

16 Dunn TB

17 Smith DAL

18 Wheatley OAK

19 Barber NYG

20 Pittman ARI

21 Davis DEN

22 James Allen CHI

23 Doug Chapman MIN

24 Biakabutuka CAR

25 Bettis PIT

26 Travis Prentice CLE

27 A-Train CHI

28 Shawn Bryson BUF

29 Richardson KC

30 Astott TB

31 Barlow SF

32 JR Redmond NE

33 Watters SEA

34 Alexander SEA

35 Bennett MIN

36 Garner OAK

37 Holmes KC

38 McAllister NO

39 Anderson DEN

40 Fletcher SD

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

He has a chance - but I'm not convinced he lasts that long.RBs just get beat up, and the avg. career for a RB is 4 years.

Even if he is still playing then, he might be in a committee and not be the front starter.

Look at the 2001 list in the Shark Pool and see how many are still in the league, let alone starting.

I counted two, IIRC.

There are plenty on that list still playing. 6 of the top 15 are still in the league, 4 are starting.1 Faulk STL

2 James IND

3 George TEN

4 Dillon CIN

5 Taylor JAC

6 Martin NYJ

7 Davis WAS

8 Green GB

9 Williams NO

10 Anderson ATL

11 Stewart DET

12 Lamar Smith MIA

13 Lewis BAL

14 LT SD

15 Staley PHI

16 Dunn TB

17 Smith DAL

18 Wheatley OAK

19 Barber NYG

20 Pittman ARI

21 Davis DEN

22 James Allen CHI

23 Doug Chapman MIN

24 Biakabutuka CAR

25 Bettis PIT

26 Travis Prentice CLE

27 A-Train CHI

28 Shawn Bryson BUF

29 Richardson KC

30 Astott TB

31 Barlow SF

32 JR Redmond NE

33 Watters SEA

34 Alexander SEA

35 Bennett MIN

36 Garner OAK

37 Holmes KC

38 McAllister NO

39 Anderson DEN

40 Fletcher SD

I stand corrected - 3 clear starters (Edge, LT and Lewis). FTaylor and Dunn are in committees, and Dunn's status is tenuous.Barlow isn't still in the league last I checked.

The point is that the odds of a starter for the 2008 season being still a starter in 2013 or 14 is slim.

 

[travdogg]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

He has a chance - but I'm not convinced he lasts that long.RBs just get beat up, and the avg. career for a RB is 4 years.

Even if he is still playing then, he might be in a committee and not be the front starter.

Look at the 2001 list in the Shark Pool and see how many are still in the league, let alone starting.

I counted two, IIRC.

There are plenty on that list still playing. 6 of the top 15 are still in the league, 4 are starting.1 Faulk STL

2 James IND

3 George TEN

4 Dillon CIN

5 Taylor JAC

6 Martin NYJ

7 Davis WAS

8 Green GB

9 Williams NO

10 Anderson ATL

11 Stewart DET

12 Lamar Smith MIA

13 Lewis BAL

14 LT SD

15 Staley PHI

16 Dunn TB

17 Smith DAL

18 Wheatley OAK

19 Barber NYG

20 Pittman ARI

21 Davis DEN

22 James Allen CHI

23 Doug Chapman MIN

24 Biakabutuka CAR

25 Bettis PIT

26 Travis Prentice CLE

27 A-Train CHI

28 Shawn Bryson BUF

29 Richardson KC

30 Astott TB

31 Barlow SF

32 JR Redmond NE

33 Watters SEA

34 Alexander SEA

35 Bennett MIN

36 Garner OAK

37 Holmes KC

38 McAllister NO

39 Anderson DEN

40 Fletcher SD

I stand corrected - 3 clear starters (Edge, LT and Lewis). FTaylor and Dunn are in committees, and Dunn's status is tenuous.Barlow isn't still in the league last I checked.

The point is that the odds of a starter for the 2008 season being still a starter in 2013 or 14 is slim.

Mike Anderson is still on the Ravens isn't he?

 

[Mr. Mojo]

The Raiders really had a good run blocking scheme this year.

Jordan looked very good, then Fargas, then Rhodes.

I'm keeping a close eye on them and if they have the same OL, I'll grab whatever RB is starting and handcuff the backup.

 

[saintfool]

Graham was consistent but didn't "wow" me last year. He also turns 28 this year and so you have to factor that into long term value. Again, I see him the likely starter this year but I don't see him holding the job for the next three years.

Age doesn't really concern me. This was his first year as a nominal starter. Consequently, the tread on the tires is really low.

 

[Banger]

In redraft, assuming Lewis returns to the Browns, it's Lewis with no one else being close. In a dynasty I'd probably have Bradshaw at the top of the list but he has Ward/Jacobs to contend with.

Fargas/Graham are question marks and there's a good chance neither will start next year let alone 2 years from now.

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Okay, 5-6 years is too many. But he has very low mileage. 3-4 seems very reasonable, no?

 

[Raiders37]

Fargas depends on what you think of Michael Bush. If you think Bush is a potential stud, then stay away. If you think he is a bust, then draft Fargas with confidence. One caveat: Tom cable must stay as line coach. If the Kiffin thing blows up, and he leaves, and takes Cable and the ZBS with him, then I'd stay away.

The Raiders really had a good run blocking scheme this year.

Jordan looked very good, then Fargas, then Rhodes.

I'm keeping a close eye on them and if they have the same OL, I'll grab whatever RB is starting and handcuff the backup.

Two great posts about Fargas, with very valid points.

IMO, for Fargas to have another great year, Cable and his system must stay, AND Bush would have to end up being a *mediocre* back at best.

JMO...

 

[az_prof]

Graham was consistent but didn't "wow" me last year. He also turns 28 this year and so you have to factor that into long term value. Again, I see him the likely starter this year but I don't see him holding the job for the next three years.

Age doesn't really concern me. This was his first year as a nominal starter. Consequently, the tread on the tires is really low.

I wonder if the "tread" theory is valid? Would love it if one of you statician types could run the numbers and see if it matters how many career carries a back has when he turns thirty in terms of how many more productive years he produces as a RB. In other words, does a guy like Graham who is turning 28 this year have more years of potential production than a guy like Portis who has been playing a lot and taking a lot of hits? I am going to guess that it doesn't--that age is the determining factor more than hits/carries. Priest Holmes is one guy who jumps to mind as a possible test case since he didn't really emerge as a featured back until later in his career. Who else would fit the paramets? Graham and Fargas both fit this profile--J. Lewis on the other hand is a similarly aged guy but one who has a lot carries. So do we have a valid reason to think that J. Lewis will run out of tread sooner than Graham or Fargas?

 

[FUBAR]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Adrian Peterson down?

He has a chance - but I'm not convinced he lasts that long.RBs just get beat up, and the avg. career for a RB is 4 years.

Even if he is still playing then, he might be in a committee and not be the front starter.

Look at the 2001 list in the Shark Pool and see how many are still in the league, let alone starting.

I counted two, IIRC.

There are plenty on that list still playing. 6 of the top 15 are still in the league, 4 are starting.1 Faulk STL

2 James IND

3 George TEN

4 Dillon CIN

5 Taylor JAC

6 Martin NYJ

7 Davis WAS

8 Green GB

9 Williams NO

10 Anderson ATL

11 Stewart DET

12 Lamar Smith MIA

13 Lewis BAL

14 LT SD

15 Staley PHI

16 Dunn TB

17 Smith DAL

18 Wheatley OAK

19 Barber NYG

20 Pittman ARI

21 Davis DEN

22 James Allen CHI

23 Doug Chapman MIN

24 Biakabutuka CAR

25 Bettis PIT

26 Travis Prentice CLE

27 A-Train CHI

28 Shawn Bryson BUF

29 Richardson KC

30 Astott TB

31 Barlow SF

32 JR Redmond NE

33 Watters SEA

34 Alexander SEA

35 Bennett MIN

36 Garner OAK

37 Holmes KC

38 McAllister NO

39 Anderson DEN

40 Fletcher SD

I stand corrected - 3 clear starters (Edge, LT and Lewis). FTaylor and Dunn are in committees, and Dunn's status is tenuous.Barlow isn't still in the league last I checked.

The point is that the odds of a starter for the 2008 season being still a starter in 2013 or 14 is slim.

Alexander also started 12 games, that's 4 clear starters. Taylor and Deuce are still starting (although RBBC). Green is at least in the running to start in Houston, and was the starter in 07, had he stayed healthy. That's 7 either starting or at worst primary parts of RBBC, almost 25% of the league. I'd say the chances of every RB that starts in 2008 not starting in 6 years is fairly low. Now, if you took them player by player, I'd say the chance of X being a top starter in 6 years is low, but I guarantee at least one 2008 starter will be starting in 2013 and 2014.How could I still think Barlow was in the league?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The more I read and hear people's opinions, the more I think that Fargas is the 2008 SOD. No one's ever questioned his athletic ability, and some have sworn to his natural running ability. He was certainly tested last year, and I think he passed with flying colors. I think he's a solid bet to hold his position for a good 5-6 years.

I'd be willing to say that every RB that starts in 2008 will not be starting in 6 years.

Okay, 5-6 years is too many. But he has very low mileage. 3-4 seems very reasonable, no?

3-4 is more reasonable, but at age 28 even that's a tough question (pertaining to Fargas).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Graham was consistent but didn't "wow" me last year. He also turns 28 this year and so you have to factor that into long term value. Again, I see him the likely starter this year but I don't see him holding the job for the next three years.

Age doesn't really concern me. This was his first year as a nominal starter. Consequently, the tread on the tires is really low.

I wonder if the "tread" theory is valid? Would love it if one of you statician types could run the numbers and see if it matters how many career carries a back has when he turns thirty in terms of how many more productive years he produces as a RB. In other words, does a guy like Graham who is turning 28 this year have more years of potential production than a guy like Portis who has been playing a lot and taking a lot of hits? I am going to guess that it doesn't--that age is the determining factor more than hits/carries. Priest Holmes is one guy who jumps to mind as a possible test case since he didn't really emerge as a featured back until later in his career. Who else would fit the paramets? Graham and Fargas both fit this profile--J. Lewis on the other hand is a similarly aged guy but one who has a lot carries. So do we have a valid reason to think that J. Lewis will run out of tread sooner than Graham or Fargas?

There are two general rules of thumb that are used as milestones for when a RB will start to trail off:- 2500 touches (carries + catches)- Age 31I don't believe that there are enough players / data points to make a case. It's pretty rare for a RB to emerge beyond age 26 to be starter, so the "tread theory" trumping the two rules of thumb would be hard to prove or disprove.Now, things always change. Players are always getting stronger, faster, in shape, lasting longer - so these rules can change. But for now, they represent a pretty good mark.Thomas Jones will be 31 next year and also be close to 2,500 touches. Just repeating his touches this year would have him at 2,240 starting 2009.Westbrook's another. He's 28 but could be on pace to hit both marks in 3 years.Interesting that Fred Taylor just crossed both lines. I think he's good for another year, but he's one to watch in this category.Fargas and Turner may represent two additional players that could fit this bill and we'll learn more.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

One more is Edge, who's at 3000+ and 30 this year.