Lets look at Shaun Alexander's future value... (2 Viewers)

[MagicMan]

He obviously had a career year this season. Seems like he played for the big money like every player tries to do in a contract year.

Is it just me or does everyone else see his production going back down to 2004 type numbers after this season?

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/187382

What does this do to his value? Sureky he's still a top fantasy RB, but is it time to deal him while his value is at an all time high? If so, what would you expect to get in return for him?

My view is that he goes back down to 2004 type numbers and possibly even less than that since he will get his money from someone this year and he now has his rushing title for a year and the TD record.

 

[CA_7]

The biggest factor is whether or not he stays in Seattle because of two factors:1. Great OL2. Plays 6 games vs NFC West. SA scored 67% of his TDS vs the NFC West and HOU so he obviously feeds on weaker opponentsLast year at this time I thought he was a lock to leave based on the "stabbing me in the back" comments and publicly taing trade offers around the draft. This year it seems more likely that he stays based on how well SEA is doing and more positive press.

 

[MagicMan]

The biggest factor is whether or not he stays in Seattle because of two factors:

1. Great OL

2. Plays 6 games vs NFC West. SA scored 67% of his TDS vs the NFC West and HOU so he obviously feeds on weaker opponents

Last year at this time I thought he was a lock to leave based on the "stabbing me in the back" comments and publicly taing trade offers around the draft. This year it seems more likely that he stays based on how well SEA is doing and more positive press.

I agree those are big factors, but...1. He's been in Seattle his whole career

2. His previous numbers were not like this season's

3. They are sure to dip. He was playing for the fat contract this year.

4. He can't be expected to put up 28 TDs every year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Using the 3-year average theory of projections, Alexander should be projected at 1850 total yards and 21 TD for next year as a baseline to work with (provided he stays in Seattle).The yardage looks pretty accurate and the TD total might be a smidge high, but I think overall those numbers are not out of the realm of probability.

 

[CA_7]

The biggest factor is whether or not he stays in Seattle because of two factors:

1. Great OL

2. Plays 6 games vs NFC West. SA scored 67% of his TDS vs the NFC West and HOU so he obviously feeds on weaker opponents

Last year at this time I thought he was a lock to leave based on the "stabbing me in the back" comments and publicly taing trade offers around the draft. This year it seems more likely that he stays based on how well SEA is doing and more positive press.

I agree those are big factors, but...1. He's been in Seattle his whole career

2. His previous numbers were not like this season's

3. They are sure to dip. He was playing for the fat contract this year.

4. He can't be expected to put up 28 TDs every year.

I think we agree. How often has a player has back-to-back career ir record years? Faulk 00-02 and Holmes 02-04 are the only two I can think of.Alexander will also have had three straight 325+ carry seasons and probably over 400 this year when the postseason is over.

 

[QB11]

Alexander has been a consistent top5 FF RB since becoming a starter. His performance in 2005 is unprecedented, but he should remain one of the top FF RB's in the next few (~3) years.Your point about trading while value is the highest is a good point and if you need help in other areas, you should look for the best deal out there. Make sure to offer him to your entire league, then evaluate each offer for the best one.

 

[simsarge]

Drawing a blank here, but who did he supplant in Seattle? I seem to remember that it was a big time name, but exactly who escapes me.

 

[CA_7]

Drawing a blank here, but who did he supplant in Seattle? I seem to remember that it was a big time name, but exactly who escapes me.

Ricky Watters

 

[Wingnut]

Drawing a blank here, but who did he supplant in Seattle? I seem to remember that it was a big time name, but exactly who escapes me.

Watters

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Drawing a blank here, but who did he supplant in Seattle? I seem to remember that it was a big time name, but exactly who escapes me.

Rickey Watters

 

[Wingnut]

I think its Watters

 

[MagicMan]

Alexander has been a consistent top5 FF RB since becoming a starter. His performance in 2005 is unprecedented, but he should remain one of the top FF RB's in the next few (~3) years.

Your point about trading while value is the highest is a good point and if you need help in other areas, you should look for the best deal out there. Make sure to offer him to your entire league, then evaluate each offer for the best one.

I wonder if anyone would give LT for him.

 

[gman8343]

I think its Watters

 

[Wu-banger]

Alexander has been a consistent top5 FF RB since becoming a starter.  His performance in 2005 is unprecedented, but he should remain one of the top FF RB's in the next few (~3) years.

Your point about trading while value is the highest is a good point and if you need help in other areas, you should look for the best deal out there.  Make sure to offer him to your entire league, then evaluate each offer for the best one.

I wonder if anyone would give LT for him.

I would... he lead my league in scoring for RB's last year and this... traded up to #2 spot to draft him this year from the 4 spot and planned on taking him ahead of LT because the other owner with the #1 pick said he wanted Manning, he woke-up and took LT , I was more than happy to take SA... all the way to my league title.

 

[MagicMan]

I guess the question is when do most folks see him start to decline. I have a gut feeling 2006 is that year. He will get his big pay day and he already has a lot of wear and tear.

 

[gman8343]

I guess the question is when do most folks see him start to decline. I have a gut feeling 2006 is that year. He will get his big pay day and he already has a lot of wear and tear.

I think he has 1-2 more years of great production, then we'll see a decline. He probably won't match this season's numbers again (this feels like a career year much like Manning's last season, and a regression to the mean is highnly likely), but he'll still be a top 3 RB for the next couple of years.

 

[faulkfan]

28 is a good year for RBs. The physical decline hasn't really started and the football knowledge is high as well.I would think SA has two good years left (not like this one obviously), but I am looking to move him for some picks and players before the draft. Unless I can get an early pick with something less I'm willing to move him. I can't imagine his value ever being higher and if I can pull a solid RB and WR and the #1 overall to take Bush, I'll do it.I will trade him for much less if he is playing somewhere other than Seattle too.If he stays in Seattle I will say this. I think he has a chance to match the numbers he had this year. I don't think he will, but he will still get the cupcakes in the NFC West to pick on and that OL is amazing.I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[MagicMan]

I would think SA has two good years left (not like this one obviously), but I am looking to move him for some picks and players before the draft. Unless I can get an early pick with something less I'm willing to move him. I can't imagine his value ever being higher and if I can pull a solid RB and WR and the #1 overall to take Bush, I'll do it.

I'm going to look to move him as well. I already have LJ in the leagues I have SA in so I'd be looking for an LT caliber player + a top draft pick & possibly even more.