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Let's play TEP vs bad landing spot game (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think most likely.
Last year in FFPC (TE Premium, 1.5ppr) Brock Bowers ADP was 1.03, ahead of Odunze, BTJ, and Worthy.
The year before that in FFPC Kincaid was 1.09, ahead of Flowers but behind Addison and QJ.
I'll note that in the leagues I consider savvy leagues Kincaid usually went earlier than 1.09. Additionally Addison/QJ were considered pretty good landing spots, while Flowers in Baltimore (assumed bad landing spot) did end up behind him.
So I'd say in recent history when a pass catching TE has been drafted in the 1st round they've gone ahead of the 1st round WRs in less than ideal landing spots, and even some in ideal landing spots. And Loveland/Warren were drafted in the NFL more in the Brock Bowers range (who ended up 1.03 ahead of even a top 10 WR drafted into a good landing spot) than Dalton Kincaid (not picked until 1.25 in the NFL draft).
I expect both Loveland and Warren to have an ADP ahead of Egbuka/Golden in FFPC (1.5ppr TE premium).
Last year in FFPC (TE Premium, 1.5ppr) Brock Bowers ADP was 1.03, ahead of Odunze, BTJ, and Worthy.
The year before that in FFPC Kincaid was 1.09, ahead of Flowers but behind Addison and QJ.
I'll note that in the leagues I consider savvy leagues Kincaid usually went earlier than 1.09. Additionally Addison/QJ were considered pretty good landing spots, while Flowers in Baltimore (assumed bad landing spot) did end up behind him.
So I'd say in recent history when a pass catching TE has been drafted in the 1st round they've gone ahead of the 1st round WRs in less than ideal landing spots, and even some in ideal landing spots. And Loveland/Warren were drafted in the NFL more in the Brock Bowers range (who ended up 1.03 ahead of even a top 10 WR drafted into a good landing spot) than Dalton Kincaid (not picked until 1.25 in the NFL draft).
I expect both Loveland and Warren to have an ADP ahead of Egbuka/Golden in FFPC (1.5ppr TE premium).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
....but is the bolded a grave mistake? Also, if Mason Taylor is drafted by the Chargers tonight, would you take him over the two TEs picked on day 1? For me personally, I wouldn't. If we're talking TE only, then I'll usually take the better talent over landing spot.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No I don't think it's a mistake. Obviously Bowers worked out great and Kincaid even as a bust had a huge spike in value in TE premium leagues after a modest rookie season, FAR exceeding the value of those WRs, even the ones that had a pretty good rookie season themselves.
Kincaid's startup ADP was 19 overall this past offseason after a modest 73-673-2 rookie year.
Compared to Flowers ADP of 40 after 77-858-5 and Addison ADP of 68 after 70-911-10.
As to the second question, I can't see any scenario where I take Taylor over Loveland or Warren. There have been some great 2nd round TEs for sure but they're far more likely to just get lost in the shuffle, many of them never even get a real shot (Mayer, Musgrave, Schoonmaker were all drafted in the 2nd round just two years ago and they may as well not exist now). A top 15 pick for a TE is pretty rare and those guys will hold their value the first few years in FF regardless of what happens, and obviously with huge upside (see: Bowers). All these guys have to do is be mediocre as rookies and they'll be worth two-three 1st round picks at this time next year.
socrates
Footballguy
Tight End dynasty value is always a gamble. I might likely still take either Egbuka or Golden ahead of the TEs, although it is generally about a 50/50 proposition. I am not especially sold on the Colts offense for TE success. Loveland may not get the volume early, but I like Chicago for his long-term success. Egbuka, like Loveland, faces plenty of competition for targets, but I like TB for dynasty success long term. I feel like Golden was over-drafted. He is not a true WR1. Depending on my roster, I might be tempted to take Loveland ahead of Golden.
Clearly in 2024, Brock Bowers stands out as an example of premium TE value, but he is a bit of an aberration. Even so, there were some awfully good WRs in the class, as well. In 2023, I would probably prefer the Rd. 1 wideouts. The 2021 WR class was strong with Chase, Waddle and DeVonta Smith, but Kadarius Toney was a bust and Bateman has certainly not lived up to his first-round draft stock. Then again, Pitts has fallen short, as well.
2024:
1st Rd. WRs: Marvin Harrison; Malik Nabers; Rome Odunze; Brian Thomas; Xavier Worthy; Ricky Pearsall; Xavier Legette
1st Rd. TEs: Brock Bowers
2023:
1st Rd. WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba; Quentin Johnston; Zay Flowers; Jordan Addison
1st Rd. TEs: Dalton Kincaid
2022:
1st Rd. WRs: Drake London; Garrett Wilson; Chris Olave; Jameson Williams; Jahan Dotson; Treylon Burks
1st Rd. TEs: NONE
2021:
1st Rd. WRs: Ja’Marr Chase; Jaylen Waddle; DeVonta Smith; Kadarius Toney; Rashod Bateman
1st Rd. TEs: Kyle Pitts
2020:
1st Rd. WRs: Henry Ruggs; Jerry Jeudy; CeeDee Lamb; Jalen Reagor; Justin Jefferson; Brandon Aiyuk
1st Rd. TEs: NONE
2019:
1st Rd. WRs: Marquise Brown; N’Keal Harry
1st Rd. TEs: T.J. Hockenson
2018:
1st Rd. WRs: D.J. Moore; Calvin Ridley
1st Rd. TEs: Hayden Hurst
2017:
1st Rd. WRs: Corey Davis; Mike Williams; John Ross
1st Rd. TEs: O.J. Howard; Evan Engram; David Njoku
No doubt other prospects will factor in. Mason Taylor to the Chargers? I would be very excited about that., and he may well vault to TE1 for me.
Clearly in 2024, Brock Bowers stands out as an example of premium TE value, but he is a bit of an aberration. Even so, there were some awfully good WRs in the class, as well. In 2023, I would probably prefer the Rd. 1 wideouts. The 2021 WR class was strong with Chase, Waddle and DeVonta Smith, but Kadarius Toney was a bust and Bateman has certainly not lived up to his first-round draft stock. Then again, Pitts has fallen short, as well.
2024:
1st Rd. WRs: Marvin Harrison; Malik Nabers; Rome Odunze; Brian Thomas; Xavier Worthy; Ricky Pearsall; Xavier Legette
1st Rd. TEs: Brock Bowers
2023:
1st Rd. WRs: Jaxon Smith-Njigba; Quentin Johnston; Zay Flowers; Jordan Addison
1st Rd. TEs: Dalton Kincaid
1st Rd. WRs: Drake London; Garrett Wilson; Chris Olave; Jameson Williams; Jahan Dotson; Treylon Burks
1st Rd. TEs: NONE
2021:
1st Rd. WRs: Ja’Marr Chase; Jaylen Waddle; DeVonta Smith; Kadarius Toney; Rashod Bateman
1st Rd. TEs: Kyle Pitts
1st Rd. WRs: Henry Ruggs; Jerry Jeudy; CeeDee Lamb; Jalen Reagor; Justin Jefferson; Brandon Aiyuk
1st Rd. TEs: NONE
2019:
1st Rd. WRs: Marquise Brown; N’Keal Harry
1st Rd. TEs: T.J. Hockenson
2018:
1st Rd. WRs: D.J. Moore; Calvin Ridley
1st Rd. TEs: Hayden Hurst
2017:
1st Rd. WRs: Corey Davis; Mike Williams; John Ross
1st Rd. TEs: O.J. Howard; Evan Engram; David Njoku
No doubt other prospects will factor in. Mason Taylor to the Chargers? I would be very excited about that., and he may well vault to TE1 for me.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And if we compare it more specifically to our current situation (TEs drafted in the top 15 versus WRs drafted outside the top 15) it's a very small sample size, but we get...
2024:
1st Rd. WRs: Brian Thomas; Xavier Worthy; Ricky Pearsall; Xavier Legette
1st Rd. TEs: Brock Bowers
2021:
1st Rd. WRs: Kadarius Toney; Rashod Bateman
1st Rd. TEs: Kyle Pitts
2019:
1st Rd. WRs: Marquise Brown; N’Keal Harry
1st Rd. TEs: T.J. Hockenson
It's also worth noting that in almost all of the scenarios the TEs, even most of the ones drafted outside the top 15, had periods where their value was extremely high in TE premium leagues. So even guys that didn't really work out like Pitts, Kincaid, Howard, Engram, and Njoku had periods where you could have sold them at extremely good value.
One thing I notice here is that aside from Hurst and Howard, all the TEs drafted in the first have held their value pretty well in TE Prem formats, and depending on your timing you might have been able to cash them in for considerably more than a single 1st round pick. Bowers, Kincaid, Pitts, Hockenson, Engram, and Njoku - all still very much relevant and holding (at least!) late 1st or early 2nd round value in TEPrem formats even all these years later. That's 6/8, or 75%.
Of the WRs drafted in the 1st round over the same time period, you've got Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Batemen, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston, and Xavier Legette who are worth little to nothing. Some of these guys still have some value, but it's far less than the original late 1st or early 2nd paid to acquire them. That's 21/35, or 60%.
I'd argue based on this data that the "hit rate" in TE Prem formats is higher for TEs drafted in the first round than WRs drafted in the first round, and when you add in the scarcity of the TE position (the 6 "hits" listed above at the TE position are all top 15 at the position in current dynasty rankings) vs. the WR position, and I think it makes sense to continue using 1st round rookie picks on TE prospects who get 1st round draft capital in TE Prem formats. That is not to say take any 1st round TE over any 1st round WR - but if it's the WR3 in a middling WR class vs. the TE1, give me the TE all day!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yep, this is a point I was alluding to but didn't want to go all-in on until I looked at it more like you did. Without looking I was going to say it seems like in the case of the TEs 70% of the time their value goes up in the year or two following the draft, whereas in 70% of the non top 15 WRs cases their peak value was draft day, and it only went down from there.
And it's the case in almost all scenarios. If they have a great rookie year it still seems to favor the TEs by a little (consider Bowers current value vs BTJ in TE premium leagues).
If they have a mediocre or bad rookie year the TEs get WAAAAAAY more leeway and benefit of the doubt than the WRs.
socrates
Footballguy
You make some great points. I think it is a little closer call in non-Premium that in TE Premium leagues, based on roster composition, although it is hard to argue with the historical evidence.
Certainly a different conversation in non-premium!
Noah Fant was also a 1st-round TE.
