Let's rank the "tier 2" RBs (1 Viewer)

[Anonymous Internet User]

By consensus, tier 1 consists of Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and Ladainian Tomlinson. Tier 1.5 consists of Clinton Portis and Tiki Barber. There is a surprising amount of consistency in ranking these guys as the top 5 picks this year as compared to years previous.

Here's the six RBs that I consider tier 2 (in no particular order):

Edgerrin James

Rudi Johnson

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

Steven Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Let's rank these six RBs by the following standards:

1) Upside - what is their upper scoring potential? Most fantasy points to least.

2) Downside - what risks do these RBs have in terms of injury, competition, offensive line and QB support? Most combined risk to least.

3) Floor - what do you see as the minimum statline they can put up? Highest minimum performance to lowest.

I'll include my rankings first:

1) Upside Most fantasy points to least.

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Steven Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Rudi Johnson

Cadillac Williams

2) Downside Most combined risk to least.

Cadillac Williams

Steven Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Rudi Johnson

3) Floor Highest minimum performance to lowest.

Rudi Johnson

Edgerrin James

LaMont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

With these standards in mind, this is the overall order that I would draft them and some reasoning - stating that my first pick is heavily weighted by risk and floor, with less emphasis than most on upside:

1) - Edgerrin James - Arizona actually looks like it could be a playoff team this year with a solid RB option, two outstanding receivers, a veteran QB, and a solid defense. Edge has been a stud for years in Indy and should continue to put up good numbers.

2) - Ronnie Brown - Miami plays in a fairly weak division this year with the horrid Jets, degrading Patriots, and uh ... Bills. Brown will get every opportunity to succeed and Saban is a great coach who will put the kid to good use.

3) - Steven Jackson - Flashes of excellence, he's also an uncontested starter. Shouldn't have trouble putting up over 1000 rushing and should have plenty of TD opportunities.

4) - Rudi Johnson - He's been the definition of solid in Cincinnati for 2 years. Perry is slightly challenging him for playtime, but Rudi will be the man on an improving team. Palmer's recovery is actually my biggest concern for Rudi at this point.

5) - LaMont Jordan - New everything in Oakland. Lots of questions about how Jordan will be used and how the team will perform. "Old school" football is one thing, but Jordan may not be the power-back Shell wants. I wasn't impressed with Jordan's YPC on anything but the swing play - which doesn't look like it will be emphasized in this offense.

6) - Cadillac Williams - Lots of hype, lots of mediocre performance after mid-season last year. Still a quality back who will put up 75 yards per game without much trouble, but I question the Bucs offense this year with an older Galloway, an oft-injured Clayton, and the undertalented Simms (despite the coach-speak to the otherwise, Rattay is the best QB on this team).

I'd like to hear your insights on the matter as well.

 

[MLBrandow]

Interesting thread idea.

1) Upside

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

LaMont Jordan

2) Downside

Ronnie Brown

Edgerrin James

Steven Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Cadillac Williams

Rudi Johnson

3) Floor

Rudi Johnson

Cadillac Williams

Steven Jackson

LaMont Jordan

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

4) Overall Order

Cadillac Williams - very high on the offense and what he did when healthy was nothing short of amazing. Injuries don't concern me or bother me.

Steven Jackson - This is a playoff team right now, and was last year. I expect him to be a workhorse. Potential for goal-line snags by Moe Williams worries me slightly, but not much, as SJax has a cool 27 lbs on the sturdy Moe.

LaMont Jordan - I don't expect his ypc to rise much, and I expect his receptions to take a big hit. Why the love here? Carries. He'll see at least 330+, and should see 40+ receptions, still making him one of the most used backs this year.

Rudi Johnson - low ceiling high floor. Model of consistency, but lack of receptions hurts him IMO. Steady and as close to a lock as you can have on your roster.

Edgerrin James - I expect a huge hit in his ypc and total yardage, but he should have ample opportunities to produce in red-zone opportunities.

Ronnie Brown - too much risk for me, and I don't believe he will stay healthy. Color me a hater, but I don't want him on my team this year, or any Dolphins for that matter.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Egerrin James has been ridden hard and put away wet since he got into the league. He's with a new team that can't run block. It can't play defense either, and has not one, but two, all world receiver. I think James is ALL downside risk at #6. Drop him to the Parker/McGahee tier and maybe he's fair value.

Steven Jackson has a new coach that's going to run him. On a team that does everything well offensively. He's young and has no mileage on him to speak of. Oh, and he's a beast. All the potential upside in the world.

Ditto that for Brown. Especially if Culpepper comes back. 4.3 is serious wheels for a guy his size.

Williams biggest risk is that Gruden runs him 88 times in three games again. What a nutjob. I personally don't think that Williams has the same sort of breakaway speed as Brown, or the strength of Jackson. But what do I know? YMMV

Rudi Johnson's had two straight seasons over 370 "adjusted" touches. But he also has maybe the best O-line in the league now that KCs has lost Roaf and Richardson, and Hutchinson left SA for MN. But Johnson is basically Mike Anderson. He's not much better than an average back in a really strong offense, and there's no way he'll ever bust out for 300FF points. Probably fair value at ADP 1.10.

I don't have much to say about Jordan. Seems likely to be a top 10 back again this year, but it's hard to see him running crazy with Oakland's line and defense. Still Brooks-to-Jordan means that even when the Raiders are losing he's going to see the ball. Especially since there is no TE to speak of and Porter's decided to try update the "Leon" role from the Budweiser commercials a few years ago.

So I guess I'll go with:

Jackson

Brown

Jordan

Johnson

Williams

James

Unfortunately, since I pick #12 in my most competitive league, this is a wholly academic exercise. Anyone want to talk Willie Parker vs Brian Westbrook vs. Owens/Johnson/etc?

 

[FFFIEND]

1) Upside Most fantasy points to least.

Ronnie Brown

Steven Jackson

Cadillac Williams

LaMont Jordan

Rudi Johnson

Edgerrin James

2) Downside Most combined risk to least.

Cadillac Williams

LaMont Jordan

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

3) Floor Highest minimum performance to lowest.

Rudi Johnson

Edgerrin James

LaMont Jordan

Steven Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

*I think the floor is kind of linked to the risk b/c the guys with risk are more likely to get hurt and thus more likely to hit rock bottom.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

*I think the floor is kind of linked to the risk b/c the guys with risk are more likely to get hurt and thus more likely to hit rock bottom.

I agree, if you predict someone will play 8 games it certainly limits their floor. For the most part, it's not a good exercise to predict injury when projecting player stats (I've found, at least). Therefore, let's stipulate that the floor assumes 16 games played.

 

[SoFresh&SoClean]

It may a bit homerlike, but I don't see why Rudi doesn't have any sort of upside according to most who've posted in this thread so far. I mean the OL is tops in the league, with Carson's knee, I don't see why that wouldn't mean more carries for Rudi. Defenses cannot afford to stack the box against them either since the WRs can beat you if you don't double coverage at least one of them, so that isn't really much concern. Perry is on the PUP list with a bum knee...

It all looks pretty good for my boy who showed up to camp a lean, mean 218 lbs. It's been his best camp to date as stated by Rudi himself. I wouldn't feel bad taking him 5th after LJ, LT2, SA, and CP at all.

 

[SSOG]

I rank them:

Steven Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Rudi Johnson

Caddy Williams

LaMont Jordan.

Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.

Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

 

[The Reverend]

Good thread.

1) Upside Most fantasy points to least.

Steven Jackson

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

LaMont Jordan

Rudi Johnson

Edgerrin James

2) Downside Most combined risk to least.

Cadillac Williams

LaMont Jordan

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

3) Floor Highest minimum performance to lowest.

Rudi Johnson

Steven Jackson

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

LaMont Jordan

In ppr, bump SJAX, Edge, and LaJ up a little. Rudi down a little.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

i'm surprised to see how down on Edge y'all have been. will include some more of my reasoning/stats on why i think he has so much upside tomorrow

 

[The Jerk]

i'm surprised to see how down on Edge y'all have been. will include some more of my reasoning/stats on why i think he has so much upside tomorrow

You do that, but don't forget a couple of other important factors here:1. Arizona in 2005 had the lowest total rushing yards of any team the past four years.2. Edge has nearly as many career touches as the other five listed on this tier COMBINED.Edge = 2544 touchesLJ/SJ/RJ/RB/CW = 2653 touchesThrow in the playoffs and I'll bet he gets even closer.Edge is not the player he once was, but I think he's still a very good back. The big problem here is that the Cardinals just can't run block. If you really want to convince me that Edge deserves to be even in this tier, you first need to explain how Arizona is going to block better on running plays.JacksonJohnsonBrownWilliamsJordan

 

[thecardiackid]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

What he said I'm sitting at #7 in a re-draft and will likely be debating SJax and RB till my time runs out. After watching the AZ preseason game today, I just don't see how that O Line will improve enough to let Edge do his thing. And if/when Warner goes down for extended time it will get UGLY.

 

[seahawk 17]

I am about to trade the farm for Jackson, (and I am a Ram/Beaver hater) this guy is a monster, and he is going to play every down. If you think they are going to pull him at the goal line your insane.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

In the next 14-21 days, Reggie Bush will enter into this consideration set. Particularly if Deuce McAllister remains limited, but I'm starting to think that matters less and less.

His ceiling is highest of all with his potential, conversely his floor is lowest due to limited touches. If he's the confirmed starter week 1, he could be going 1.8-1.12 in redrafts taking place in the days right before kickoff.

I realize he's not one of the RB's listed, but circumstances could lead him to be in this set as pre-season progresses.

 

[PahtyTom]

I'm assuming we're talking about non ppr leagues.

1. Rudi - A proven, consistent, healthy performer in a top offense. Also a great goalline back that will get every carry in those situations. Deserves more love.

 

[Justloveit]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

What he said I'm sitting at #7 in a re-draft and will likely be debating SJax and RB till my time runs out. After watching the AZ preseason game today, I just don't see how that O Line will improve enough to let Edge do his thing. And if/when Warner goes down for extended time it will get UGLY.

I'm with you on the SJ or RB choice. I'm curious to hear more people's opinions on which of these two people would rather draft.

 

[Spartans Rule]

In the next 14-21 days, Reggie Bush will enter into this consideration set. Particularly if Deuce McAllister remains limited, but I'm starting to think that matters less and less.His ceiling is highest of all with his potential, conversely his floor is lowest due to limited touches. If he's the confirmed starter week 1, he could be going 1.8-1.12 in redrafts taking place in the days right before kickoff.I realize he's not one of the RB's listed, but circumstances could lead him to be in this set as pre-season progresses.

This is true, and unfortunate. I was really liking Bush in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

[MrPhoenix]

How I rank them:

Edgerrin James

Ronnie Brown

Cadillac Williams

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

LaMont Jordan

 

[cr8f]

I have Tiki and Portis #2. That's all, but may add SJax if he continues to impress. I don't have rier 1.5. That's tier 2 for me.

Edge has upside, but that line is an issue with me.

 

[MLBrandow]

Again, good thread idea

Enjoyed reading all of those responses thusfar.

 

[bonesman]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

if you had to add a RB when you take Edge out... who would it be?

 

[u999spf]

Of this list....

Edgerrin James - Something that hasn't been discussed yet, for those that put any weight into it, Ari has one of the easier predicted rushing schedules this year.

Rudi Johnson - Rudi is consistent but is less valuable in ppr so would need to be bumped down a notch or 2 but I believe he will be leaned on earlier in the year to protect Palmer so he may get off to a quicker start.

Ronnie Brown - I believe Mia has an even easier rushing sched (top 5)

Cadillac Williams - One of the bottom 5 rush scheds and doesn't have the best hands so I don't expect him to catch a whole lot of passes.

Steven Jackson - I agree that Jax should be very solid this season and an every down back that gets plenty of GL touches.

LaMont Jordan - He is a hard one for me to peg this year with all the changes. This team looks to just be a mess again this year. I think the O Line will be better this year but not early in the season. The defense is still bad but they should still use Jordan in the passing game even if they fall behind.

I think I would rank them....

#6 - Steven Jackson (could crack top 4 or 5)

#7 - Ronnie Brown (could crack top 4 or 5)

#8 - Rudi Johnson (drop to #9 or #10 in ppr leagues)

#9 - Edge James (easier sched, better rec out of the backfield, no one to take away goal line/redzone touches)

#10 - Cadillac Williams (tough sched and possible vulture in Alstott/Pittman and not a 3 down back yet.)

 

[OneEastRiver]

Of this list....Edgerrin James - Something that hasn't been discussed yet, for those that put any weight into it, Ari has one of the easier predicted rushing schedules this year.Rudi Johnson - Rudi is consistent but is less valuable in ppr so would need to be bumped down a notch or 2 but I believe he will be leaned on earlier in the year to protect Palmer so he may get off to a quicker start.Ronnie Brown - I believe Mia has an even easier rushing sched (top 5)Cadillac Williams - One of the bottom 5 rush scheds and doesn't have the best hands so I don't expect him to catch a whole lot of passes.Steven Jackson - I agree that Jax should be very solid this season and an every down back that gets plenty of GL touches.LaMont Jordan - He is a hard one for me to peg this year with all the changes. This team looks to just be a mess again this year. I think the O Line will be better this year but not early in the season. The defense is still bad but they should still use Jordan in the passing game even if they fall behind.I think I would rank them....#6 - Steven Jackson (could crack top 4 or 5)#7 - Ronnie Brown (could crack top 4 or 5)#8 - Rudi Johnson (drop to #9 or #10 in ppr leagues)#9 - Edge James (easier sched, better rec out of the backfield, no one to take away goal line/redzone touches)#10 - Cadillac Williams (tough sched and possible vulture in Alstott/Pittman and not a 3 down back yet.)

Agree with these rankings.

 

[H.K.]

Hey guys, scoring system is important here, especially in PPR leagues.

One of the things being lost in the shuffle regarding Edge is that last year, Arrington and Shipp caught 60 balls between them, and the FB had over 30.

Last night's game Edge had one target and there were a few other receptions to RB's that he would have probaly received.

#6 - Steven Jackson (PPR makes him a clear #6 IMHO)

#7 - Edge

#8 - Caddy - should see more 3RB time, I read where Pittman was willing to try playing defense to get on the field, that says something about how they intend to use Williams

#9 - Ronnie Borwn

#10 - Rudi - even if Perry is hurt, Watson gets 3RB work

 

[Keys Myaths]

at all the "Edge has the highest floor" rankings in #######' Arizona.

Seriously, being high on Edge is one thing...saying he has no downside is just plain shortsighted.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I haven't read this whole thread yet, but I wanted to add my input since I have this exact dilemma coming up. I have the 6th pick in my biggest $ league. So I will most likely have to select among these exact 6 listed above.

I have looked at this from every possible angle (and I mean every) - and I just don't see one guy emerging as the clear cut "best guy to take" of those 6.

The following are just some of the categories I have used - and then the order from best to worst in that category:

I have looked at the staff rankings: S.Jax, Brown, Jordan, Edge, Rudi, Caddy

I have looked at the VBD app w/ my league's scoring system: Jordan, Rudi, S.Jax, Brown, Edge, Caddy

I have looked at overall SOS (1-16): Brown, Caddy, Edge, Rudi, S.Jax, Jordan

I have looked at SOS for the playoff weeks in particular (14-16): Brown, Caddy/Jordan, Edge, S.Jax/Rudi

I have looked at last year's stats: Edge, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax, Caddy, Brown

I have looked at most 100 yard games from last year (since we give bonus for that): Edge, Caddy, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax/Brown

I have looked at this simply by TDs from last year: Edge, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax, Caddy, Brown

I have looked at their offensive line's this year: Rudi, Brown/Caddy, Jordan/S.Jax, Edge

I have looked at all the above, plus more. And the one conclusion I have drawn from all my analysis is that I am simply lost. I just don't know which guy to take.

If you asked me now to choose, I think I would eliminate Caddy and Edge. Caddy getting vultured inside the 5 scares me. Edge moving to a situation where his o-line is much worse than he ever had in Indy scares me.

So basically, I think I have approached this as process of elimination.

Edit to add:

I think if you want to know what you are getting - go Rudi. He is the man if you want consistent w/ low risk.

If taking a chance is your thing, S.Jackson has very nice upside. Should see more carries this year w/ the coaching changes.

If total confusion if your thing, go with Jordan. So many changes - coach, qb, healthy Moss, etc - it is difficult to predict how he will do.

And if you are confident you are going to the FF playoffs no matter what, then Brown might be the best guy for you b/c his schedule in weeks 14, 15, and 16 is the best of all 6.

So it depends on what kind of a guy you are...risk taker, upside guy, more or the consistent mold, etc.

 

[There it is]

I haven't read this whole thread yet, but I wanted to add my input since I have this exact dilemma coming up. I have the 6th pick in my biggest $ league. So I will most likely have to select among these exact 6 listed above.

I have looked at this from every possible angle (and I mean every) - and I just don't see one guy emerging as the clear cut "best guy to take" of those 6.

The following are just some of the categories I have used - and then the order from best to worst in that category:

I have looked at the staff rankings: S.Jax, Brown, Jordan, Edge, Rudi, Caddy

I have looked at the VBD app w/ my league's scoring system: Jordan, Rudi, S.Jax, Brown, Edge, Caddy

I have looked at overall SOS (1-16): Brown, Caddy, Edge, Rudi, S.Jax, Jordan

I have looked at SOS for the playoff weeks in particular (14-16): Brown, Caddy/Jordan, Edge, S.Jax/Rudi

I have looked at last year's stats: Edge, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax, Caddy, Brown

I have looked at most 100 yard games from last year (since we give bonus for that): Edge, Caddy, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax/Brown

I have looked at this simply by TDs from last year: Edge, Rudi, Jordan, S.Jax, Caddy, Brown

I have looked at their offensive line's this year: Rudi, Brown/Caddy, Jordan/S.Jax, Edge

I have looked at all the above, plus more. And the one conclusion I have drawn from all my analysis is that I am simply lost. I just don't know which guy to take.

If you asked me now to choose, I think I would eliminate Caddy and Edge. Caddy getting vultured inside the 5 scares me. Edge moving to a situation where his o-line is much worse than he ever had in Indy scares me.

So basically, I think I have approached this as process of elimination.

Edit to add:

I think if you want to know what you are getting - go Rudi. He is the man if you want consistent w/ low risk.

If taking a chance is your thing, S.Jackson has very nice upside. Should see more carries this year w/ the coaching changes.

If total confusion if your thing, go with Jordan. So many changes - coach, qb, healthy Moss, etc - it is difficult to predict how he will do.

And if you are confident you are going to the FF playoffs no matter what, then Brown might be the best guy for you b/c his schedule in weeks 14, 15, and 16 is the best of all 6.

So it depends on what kind of a guy you are...risk taker, upside guy, more or the consistent mold, etc.

Exactly what I came up with.Rudi low risk.

Brown excellent sos.

Did you look at the bye weeks of your #2 in rnd 2?

 

[AutoMattek]

Great Thread. Very good insight. Edge really is the key to the whole list. I have had him as my 1 keeper in my 16 team keeper league and this year I am killing myself with the decision of Jordan or Edge. Jordan has been my choice but I started to lean to Edge last week now I am back towards Jordaon after seeing AZ passing attack in action. However One thing going for Edge is the easier schedule.

Keep the thoughts coming this might help me with my decision.

My rankings for these RB's are

S. Jackson

Edge ---Jordan tie

Rudi

Caddy

Ronnie Brown

 

[Boulder Toads]

This is the reason why I'm OK with having the #11 pick this year (12-team league) ... no turmoil in making a decision

However, ranking my preference of who I would WANT to fall to me (no PPR):

Most Upside Potential:

S Jackson

R Brown

L Jordan

E James

R Johnson

C Williams

Most Downside Risk:

C Williams

E James

L Jordan

R Brown

S Jackson

R Johnson

I'm to the point that I believe I'll be happiest with either Rudi or Ronnie at 1.11, paired with a top WR at the 2.02 pick. Best case scenario would be if some dudes pick up Peyton, S Smith and another WR in the 1st round so I could end up with 2 of these "Tier 2" RBs. We'll find out in a couple of hours

TOADS

 

[Marc Levin]

It may a bit homerlike, but I don't see why Rudi doesn't have any sort of upside according to most who've posted in this thread so far.

i discussed this a LOT inmy Rudi spotlight and in my faceoff - i did his high side.How high can you expect him to go given the fact he doesn't catch the ball?EVERY SINGLE top-5 RB either combines tons of passing and receiving yardage or has somewhere above 15 TDs on the year.W/O receptions, and with a likely 12-14 rush TD ceiling Rudi has lmiited upsdie.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

Unfortunately, since I pick #12 in my most competitive league, this is a wholly academic exercise. Anyone want to talk Willie Parker vs Brian Westbrook vs. Owens/Johnson/etc?

Sure - I will. I draft 12th in my league too. But I have a strong vibe that Manning and at least 1 WR will go in our first round. That means I expect to get either Caddy, Brown or Edge at 12. If I only get one, I will most likely take Chad Johnson at 13. If I have the misfortune of missing out on those RBs altogether, I am seriously considering the unprecedented (for me) move of going WR/WR. I'm thinking Johnson/Fitz. I really can't see me taking Parker/Westbrook. I may get cautious and go Johnson/McGahee......Thoughts?

 

[There it is]

It may a bit homerlike, but I don't see why Rudi doesn't have any sort of upside according to most who've posted in this thread so far.

i discussed this a LOT inmy Rudi spotlight and in my faceoff - i did his high side.How high can you expect him to go given the fact he doesn't catch the ball?

EVERY SINGLE top-5 RB either combines tons of passing and receiving yardage or has somewhere above 15 TDs on the year.

W/O receptions, and with a likely 12-14 rush TD ceiling Rudi has lmiited upsdie.

Excellent.I should have said that I have the 8 pick and Rudi is the safest. He won't lose you the league, but he also won't win it.

Brown has the best upside and easy sos. Remember I'm picking 8th.

http://football24.myfantasyleague.com/2006...ints&TEAM=*

 

[Marc Levin]

Rudi is the safest. He won't lose you the league, but he also won't win it.

Disagree - he could be a crucial piece of a championship team.you do not need a top-5 RB to win yer league.

 

[joffer]

good thread, i'm as confused as ever

i'm not seeing the downside for Jordan that many are worried about. yes the receiving numbers should drop, but he only played 14 games last year and still finished 8th

 

[Shermanator]

Great thread. This has been a very good read with great insightful responses.

But I dont see how Ronnie Brown can be rated higher than Edge or Jackson. I understand he will get the touches. But he wont get more than Jackson or Edge? No? Or at least about the same.

Im not very analytical, but my thinking here is this...

1. Of the three offenses in question here (Miami, St Lou, AR), Miami is last IMO.

2. Call me naive perhaps, but RB hasnt proven a thing compared to the other two backs. Of the limited plays I've seen of him, he hasnt been very impressive compared to the others.

3. Edge is just a great runningback. Not good, not very good, but a great runningback. I wouldnt overly discount the fact his o-line isnt very good. LTs o-line wasnt very good either, and he got his. I will easily give Edge the same benefit of the doubt.

4. Jackson is a total monster. I have seen enough of his play to surmise that if he gets the proper amount of touches, he will get all his owners very happy.

Im not really trying to bash RB. I consider him a top ten pick (9th actually). I just cant justify drafting him over these other guys.

 

[Slider]

Caddy and Chester Taylor will be the 2 most underrated RB's this year.

 

[Gopher State]

I am about to trade the farm for Jackson, (and I am a Ram/Beaver hater) this guy is a monster, and he is going to play every down. If you think they are going to pull him at the goal line your insane.

I would check the history of the new Ram coach, seems he split the carries while at fin town,(Ricky/Brown) and used some guy named Moe Williams while at Minny, hmmm where is Moe these days, oh just signed with the RAMs. Plus if the Rams defense plays like they did last year, Bulger will be airing it out 50 times a game, as the Rams will be trying to come back from about 14 pts in the 4th quarter. Plus don't discount Fisher, he looks like a good 3rd down/change of pace back. I don't see the upside in Jackson, to many issues, new coach with a history of mixing up/using goal line backs, bad defense, adding a RB who has stayed in the NFL by being a goal line back. Some people say Williams was brought in for RB depth, why bring in a goal line back for depth? Some people say Moe has nothing left in the tank, well the combination of being hurt last year/and Mike Tice as a coach has put him under the radar. I agree when Linehan left for Fin town, williams went down hill, but now their back together. I also have heard people say it took two attempts to pass his physical,(williams) so if you don't pass your divers test until the second try, they don't let you drive on the freeway?Bottom line people are cheering for Jackson like Kevin Jones in 05. I think Rudi is safest pick of the bunch and Jackson has the most risk.

 

[kstockwell]

This is the reason why I'm OK with having the #11 pick this year (12-team league) ... no turmoil in making a decision However, ranking my preference of who I would WANT to fall to me (no PPR):Most Upside Potential:S JacksonR BrownL JordanE JamesR JohnsonC WilliamsMost Downside Risk:C WilliamsE JamesL JordanR BrownS JacksonR JohnsonI'm to the point that I believe I'll be happiest with either Rudi or Ronnie at 1.11, paired with a top WR at the 2.02 pick. Best case scenario would be if some dudes pick up Peyton, S Smith and another WR in the 1st round so I could end up with 2 of these "Tier 2" RBs. We'll find out in a couple of hours TOADS

TOADS, would you let me know how your first round goes. I'm in the exact same position (11th pick in a 12 team league). It's a ppr league. I agree with you that by having the 11th pick, the # of options is reduced greatly. I would love it if Ronnie falls to me at 1.11 but I doubt it (probably one of Williams/Edge/Rudi/Jordan). Thanks

 

[thecardiackid]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

What he said I'm sitting at #7 in a re-draft and will likely be debating SJax and RB till my time runs out. After watching the AZ preseason game today, I just don't see how that O Line will improve enough to let Edge do his thing. And if/when Warner goes down for extended time it will get UGLY.

I'm with you on the SJ or RB choice. I'm curious to hear more people's opinions on which of these two people would rather draft.

Check out the pinned Draft slot post for a couple threads covering #7. More info there and basically the same topic/players.

 

[SSOG]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

if you had to add a RB when you take Edge out... who would it be?

No one. Edge is the next best RB after those 5, it's just he's very clearly a full tier below (along with Brian Westbrook, Willis McGahee, and Kevin Jones). As I think about it even more, I'd drop LaMont Jordan down into the Edge tier, too.Rankings (sorted by tier, in order of preference)Tier 1- LT, LJ, SATier 2- CP, TBTier 3- Steven Jax, Ronnie, Rudi, CaddyTier 4- Edge/LaMont/Westbrook (would have to think about it to rank those 3), Kevin Jones, Willis McGaheeYeah, Edge and Jordan are probably the RBs ranked right behind those 4, but the drop in tier is VERY significant because I'd rather have a tier1 WR than a tier4 RB. In the RB rankings, Edge might be one slot behind Caddy, but in the overall rankings, I'd have Edge 4 or 5 slots behind- maybe more, depending on scoring.

 

[joey]

Unfortunately, since I pick #12 in my most competitive league, this is a wholly academic exercise. Anyone want to talk Willie Parker vs Brian Westbrook vs. Owens/Johnson/etc?

Sure - I will. I draft 12th in my league too. But I have a strong vibe that Manning and at least 1 WR will go in our first round. That means I expect to get either Caddy, Brown or Edge at 12. If I only get one, I will most likely take Chad Johnson at 13. If I have the misfortune of missing out on those RBs altogether, I am seriously considering the unprecedented (for me) move of going WR/WR. I'm thinking Johnson/Fitz. I really can't see me taking Parker/Westbrook. I may get cautious and go Johnson/McGahee......Thoughts?

I have the 12 spot in my main league and, unfortunately, I have no such vibe aboutManning or a WR going ahead of me. I'm expecting all 11 RBs mentioned in this threadto be gone by my pick and I expect to have to draft McGahee/Holt (right now, Holt ismy WR1). 2 VERY safe picks, imo, since McGahee is the only RB in the next tier to nothave issues with injuries or splitting carries.I'm hoping that Bush shows ALOT more in the pre-season and Deuce continues to, er,"struggle" back from his injury (not wishing harm on anyone ). If that happens, Imight have the nads to take Bush at the 1st turn since he would have loads of upside,especially compared to the other punks I'll be forced to look at for my RB1.12th spot = BLEECH! unless something dramatic happens in this pre-season.

 

[u999spf]

Great thread. This has been a very good read with great insightful responses.But I dont see how Ronnie Brown can be rated higher than Edge or Jackson. I understand he will get the touches. But he wont get more than Jackson or Edge? No? Or at least about the same.Im not very analytical, but my thinking here is this...1. Of the three offenses in question here (Miami, St Lou, AR), Miami is last IMO. 2. Call me naive perhaps, but RB hasnt proven a thing compared to the other two backs. Of the limited plays I've seen of him, he hasnt been very impressive compared to the others. 3. Edge is just a great runningback. Not good, not very good, but a great runningback. I wouldnt overly discount the fact his o-line isnt very good. LTs o-line wasnt very good either, and he got his. I will easily give Edge the same benefit of the doubt. 4. Jackson is a total monster. I have seen enough of his play to surmise that if he gets the proper amount of touches, he will get all his owners very happy.Im not really trying to bash RB. I consider him a top ten pick (9th actually). I just cant justify drafting him over these other guys.

Looking at the Off Lines of each of these offenses and also their team defenses, Miami may be in the best situation for a RB. They have what many consider to be one of the best Offensive Line Guru's coaching up the OL in Miami, I believed they may have also added a player or 2 on the line. Hudson Hauck is the guy that coached up San Diego's line and made a bunch of nobodys into a pretty good line for LT2. Also, Miami's defense should be pretty good giving the Offense some nice scoring opportunities. I think Miami, with Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, Booker, McDaniel are one of the next high scoring offenses. Plus, If you are an owner that normally can put together a playoff team, Browns schedule in weeks 14-16 is the easiest of all the backs out there.

 

[moleculo]

Great thread. This has been a very good read with great insightful responses.But I dont see how Ronnie Brown can be rated higher than Edge or Jackson. I understand he will get the touches. But he wont get more than Jackson or Edge? No? Or at least about the same.Im not very analytical, but my thinking here is this...1. Of the three offenses in question here (Miami, St Lou, AR), Miami is last IMO. 2. Call me naive perhaps, but RB hasnt proven a thing compared to the other two backs. Of the limited plays I've seen of him, he hasnt been very impressive compared to the others. 3. Edge is just a great runningback. Not good, not very good, but a great runningback. I wouldnt overly discount the fact his o-line isnt very good. LTs o-line wasnt very good either, and he got his. I will easily give Edge the same benefit of the doubt. 4. Jackson is a total monster. I have seen enough of his play to surmise that if he gets the proper amount of touches, he will get all his owners very happy.Im not really trying to bash RB. I consider him a top ten pick (9th actually). I just cant justify drafting him over these other guys.

Looking at the Off Lines of each of these offenses and also their team defenses, Miami may be in the best situation for a RB. They have what many consider to be one of the best Offensive Line Guru's coaching up the OL in Miami, I believed they may have also added a player or 2 on the line. Hudson Hauck is the guy that coached up San Diego's line and made a bunch of nobodys into a pretty good line for LT2. Also, Miami's defense should be pretty good giving the Offense some nice scoring opportunities. I think Miami, with Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, Booker, McDaniel are one of the next high scoring offenses. Plus, If you are an owner that normally can put together a playoff team, Browns schedule in weeks 14-16 is the easiest of all the backs out there.

I agree with this. Show me a good defense, and I'll show you a strong running game. Defenses and RB production go hand in hand. It is rare to see high RB #'s with a poor defense (LJ being a notable exception). If we can accept that Miami has a strong D, and that RBBC will clearly not be a factor, we can assume RB wil lhave a good season.My knock on Edge is that Arizona's D is relativly poor - they will be behind alot, and I expect KW/Leinart to throw alot to Boldin and Fitz (although not as much as last season).

 

[Shermanator]

Great thread. This has been a very good read with great insightful responses.But I dont see how Ronnie Brown can be rated higher than Edge or Jackson. I understand he will get the touches. But he wont get more than Jackson or Edge? No? Or at least about the same.Im not very analytical, but my thinking here is this...1. Of the three offenses in question here (Miami, St Lou, AR), Miami is last IMO. 2. Call me naive perhaps, but RB hasnt proven a thing compared to the other two backs. Of the limited plays I've seen of him, he hasnt been very impressive compared to the others. 3. Edge is just a great runningback. Not good, not very good, but a great runningback. I wouldnt overly discount the fact his o-line isnt very good. LTs o-line wasnt very good either, and he got his. I will easily give Edge the same benefit of the doubt. 4. Jackson is a total monster. I have seen enough of his play to surmise that if he gets the proper amount of touches, he will get all his owners very happy.Im not really trying to bash RB. I consider him a top ten pick (9th actually). I just cant justify drafting him over these other guys.

Looking at the Off Lines of each of these offenses and also their team defenses, Miami may be in the best situation for a RB. They have what many consider to be one of the best Offensive Line Guru's coaching up the OL in Miami, I believed they may have also added a player or 2 on the line. Hudson Hauck is the guy that coached up San Diego's line and made a bunch of nobodys into a pretty good line for LT2. Also, Miami's defense should be pretty good giving the Offense some nice scoring opportunities. I think Miami, with Culpepper, Brown, Chambers, Booker, McDaniel are one of the next high scoring offenses. Plus, If you are an owner that normally can put together a playoff team, Browns schedule in weeks 14-16 is the easiest of all the backs out there.

I agree with this. Show me a good defense, and I'll show you a strong running game. Defenses and RB production go hand in hand. It is rare to see high RB #'s with a poor defense (LJ being a notable exception). If we can accept that Miami has a strong D, and that RBBC will clearly not be a factor, we can assume RB wil lhave a good season.My knock on Edge is that Arizona's D is relativly poor - they will be behind alot, and I expect KW/Leinart to throw alot to Boldin and Fitz (although not as much as last season).

Good point on the good D = strong running game. Although I will contend that AZ D last year was not as bad as advertised. I believe they were in the top 15 if memory serves me correctly. Anyway, this is a great thread that needs to keep going. My 6-9 players right now are SJ, Edge, Westbrook, RB. (Disclosure, my league is 1PPR, so Westbrook is #8 on my board). Keep up the excellent disussion guys

 

[Boulder Toads]

This is the reason why I'm OK with having the #11 pick this year (12-team league) ... no turmoil in making a decision

However, ranking my preference of who I would WANT to fall to me (no PPR):

Most Upside Potential:

S Jackson

R Brown

L Jordan

E James

R Johnson

C Williams

Most Downside Risk:

C Williams

E James

L Jordan

R Brown

S Jackson

R Johnson

I'm to the point that I believe I'll be happiest with either Rudi or Ronnie at 1.11, paired with a top WR at the 2.02 pick. Best case scenario would be if some dudes pick up Peyton, S Smith and another WR in the 1st round so I could end up with 2 of these "Tier 2" RBs. We'll find out in a couple of hours

TOADS

TOADS, would you let me know how your first round goes. I'm in the exact same position (11th pick in a 12 team league). It's a ppr league. I agree with you that by having the 11th pick, the # of options is reduced greatly. I would love it if Ronnie falls to me at 1.11 but I doubt it (probably one of Williams/Edge/Rudi/Jordan). Thanks

Just back from the draft - I ended up getting Jordan at 1.11 (picked him over Caddy). Here's how the first round went (no PPR, 6pts all TDs, 1pt/10yds rush/rec and 1pt/25yds pass, start 1QB/2RB/3WR):1.01 Larry Johnson

1.02 Ladanian Tomlinson

1.03 Shaun Alexander

1.04 Clinton Portis

1.05 Tiki Barber

1.06 Rudi Johnson

1.07 Stephen Jackson

1.08 Edgerrin James

1.09 Ronnie Brown

1.10 Peyton Manning

1.11 Lamont Jordan

1.12 Cadillac Williams

Pretty much as expected, and I thought there would be more RBs to follow in round 2 before the guys turned to WR (as in previous years). However, my pick at 2.02 spurred a mini-WR run ... for those interested, Round 2 went:

2.01 Willis McGahee

2.02 Torry Holt

2.03 Brian Westbrook

2.04 Terrell Owens

2.05 Chad Johnson

2.06 Steve Smith

2.07 Larry Fitzgerald

2.08 Marvin Harrison

2.09 Chester Taylor

2.10 Randy Moss

2.11 Tom Brady

2.12 Reggie Wayne

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great thread. I'll contribute some injury info from last year.

1) R Brown was listed on the injury report as Questionable 2 times and played in 1 of those games. He was listed as Probable 1 time and played.

2) S Jackson was listed as Questionable 2 times and played 1 time. He was listed as Probable 2 times and played both.

3) E James was listed as Out in one game and that's it.

4) R Johnson was listed as Probable in 11 (but it goes to 11) games and played every single time.

5) L Jordan was listed as Doubtful twice and didn't play in either game. He was listed as Probable once and played.

6) C Williams was listed as Questionable 3 times and played once. He was listed as Probable twice and played both times.

 

[Spiderman]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

How could you not put Edgerrin James into this tier ???

 

[Keys Myaths]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

How could you not put Edgerrin James into this tier ???

Because he's not in it.I agree with SSOG on this.People are basing Edge's success based on the fact that he was a borderline top 5 back in Indy. Now, he gets a SEVERE downgrade in EVERY AREA that makes a RB a fantasy stud (offensive line, defense, QB, etc.), and people don't expect him to drop very far...because, well, he's Edge, and he's done well in the past.Talent is great...but you need both talent and situation to make an elite FF RB, unless it's an unreal talent (LT, Barry Sanders, etc. with breakaway speed and moves), which Edge is not.

 

[BoulderBob]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

How could you not put Edgerrin James into this tier ???

Because he's not in it.I agree with SSOG on this.People are basing Edge's success based on the fact that he was a borderline top 5 back in Indy. Now, he gets a SEVERE downgrade in EVERY AREA that makes a RB a fantasy stud (offensive line, defense, QB, etc.), and people don't expect him to drop very far...because, well, he's Edge, and he's done well in the past.Talent is great...but you need both talent and situation to make an elite FF RB, unless it's an unreal talent (LT, Barry Sanders, etc. with breakaway speed and moves), which Edge is not.

I agree with you, but having two stud WR's, and a proven QB behind center will force the AZ opponents to at least respect the pass. Edge will have plenty of room to run, and plenty carries/catches.

 

[Marc Levin]

I rank them:Steven JacksonRonnie BrownRudi JohnsonCaddy WilliamsLaMont Jordan.Edge doesn't make the list, because he's not in this tier.Jackson and Brown have the highest upsides, and among the highest downsides. Jordan has the lowest upside AND the lowest downside.

How could you not put Edgerrin James into this tier ???

Because he's not in it.I agree with SSOG on this.People are basing Edge's success based on the fact that he was a borderline top 5 back in Indy. Now, he gets a SEVERE downgrade in EVERY AREA that makes a RB a fantasy stud (offensive line, defense, QB, etc.), and people don't expect him to drop very far...because, well, he's Edge, and he's done well in the past.Talent is great...but you need both talent and situation to make an elite FF RB, unless it's an unreal talent (LT, Barry Sanders, etc. with breakaway speed and moves), which Edge is not.

I agree with you, but having two stud WR's, and a proven QB behind center will force the AZ opponents to at least respect the pass. Edge will have plenty of room to run, and plenty carries/catches.

and the magic formula is NOT talent plus "situation."It is talent plus OPPORTUNITY.

 

[ChampBailey24]

Here's how I'd rank them :

-Rudi

-SJax

-LamJ

-Edge

-RBrown

-Cadillac