Let's talk about VBD for baseball (1 Viewer)

[Tiger Fan]

I posted this at Rotodugout and didn't get any love, so I thought I'd try it out here....

Disclaimer

Note that it's only beneficial for H2H (not roto) leagues where you get 1 point for winning your category as opposed to ranking results w/in a category.....just how my league rolls.

This is how I have my VBD system. The % system has helped me compare pitchers with hitters, and I have found some interesting results.

1. Break down all players in the ML down by position

2. In each position, sort all players projected stats in each of the 5 categories scored (A total of 5 separate sorted columns on a spreadsheet)

3. For HR, R, RBI & SB calculate an x-value for each category scored by subtracting that players projected stat by the last starter’s projected stat in that category. Calculating Batting Average is different:

Calculating an x-value for BA can be misleading. Is a player with a .320 BA with 300 AB more valuable than a player with a .300 BA with 600 AB? As a rule of thumb, I don’t include anyone with 100 or fewer projected at bats when calculating BA x-value; it could throw of the baseline greatly. To determine this, you need to perform a simple formula before calculating x-value for BA: [Hits – (Baseline Avg * AB)]. This allows me to compare each players projected average with the baseline players projected average, regardless of the number of at bats. To illustrate this, I will use the projected 2003 statistics for MLB OF that had over 100 at bats. Is Barry Bonds (.326 Avg, 438 AB) more valuable than Chipper Jones (.322 Avg, 543 AB) when it comes to batting average? The answer is NO. Assume .287 is the baseline BA. The calculation for Bonds yields an x-value of 17.3 [143 – (.287*438)] and the calulation for Jones yields an x-value of 19.17 [175 – (.287*543)]

For W, K, & Saves, calculate an x-value for each category scored by subtracting that players projected stat by the last starter’s projected stat in that category. WHIP & ERA follow a different formula:

[For ERA: (Baseline ERA * IP) - (ERA - IP) For WHIP: (Baseline WHIP * IP) - (WHIP * IP). This follows the same theory as the BA above. It allows you to value 2 pitchers ERA and WHIP regardless of the number of innings they pitch]

4. I next weigh each of the 5 categories so they add up with a total weight of 5. I prefer the following weights (HR: 1.25, BA: 1, R: 1, RBI: 1, SB: .75) I have no mathematical backup for these weights, but here is my explanation on why HR is weighted so heavily and SB so lightly. I don’t weigh the pitching categories b/c they are all independent of each other.

HR – obviously, if you hit a HR, you are crediting 4/5 categories, no-brainer

BA - when you get a hit, you set yourself up for 4/5 categories

R – You can score a Run after reaching base anyway.

RBI – you can only get an RBI via hit, walk, or sacrifice

SB – SB #’s fluctuate greatly and are too difficult to gage from year-to-year. A SB might help generate a Run later in the inning, but can’t help any other category

5. Sum up the total of all x-values above baseline for each category

6. Divide x-value for each player for each category by the sum in #5. This yields the % that the player is above the baseline for that category. The % calculation is key when combining the hitters with the pitchers (which is the hardest thing to do)

7. Add the % for each category to create a Total % (You can multiply x 100 to get rid of the % if you prefer, so the % doesn’t mislead you)

8. Subtract each players Total by the baseline total to yield the VBD.

9. Combine all players and sort by VBD

Some end results.
Offense greatly outweighs pitching
SP is essentially = to RP
Middle Relievers are great value compared to where they are drafted
SB are really overratedSo I took rototimes projections and plugged them into my VBD sheet and here is what I got for my top 100:

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating1	2B	Chase Utley	Phi	151.36136512	1B	Albert Pujols	StL	131.78251243	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905884	3B	Alex Rodriguez	NyY	83.052235285	3B	David Wright	NyM	80.782676646	DH	David Ortiz	Bos	75.501821147	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.846322518	1B	Ryan Howard	Phi	70.637559189	3B	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	69.5747321110	SS	Miguel Tejada	Bal	66.1553952811	SS	Jose Reyes	NyM	61.1997513512	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905413	DH	Travis Hafner	Cle	56.632245414	1B	Mark Teixeira	Tex	54.9290520515	SS	Derek Jeter	NyY	52.9514140416	SS	Carlos Guillen	Det	50.8096719517	1B	Derrek Lee	ChC	50.3391503118	SS	Michael Young	Tex	50.3113653119	SS	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	48.690133320	3B	Garrett Atkins	Col	48.5760247121	1B	Justin Morneau	Min	47.6037567522	3B	Aramis Ramirez	ChC	47.1422551223	SS	Bill Hall	Mil	38.2369032424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060625	1B	Paul Konerko	ChW	31.5518612426	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387227	OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Ana	30.8280505128	OF	Lance Berkman	Hou	30.5683829329	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677430	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772731	OF	Manny Ramirez	Bos	25.3138492532	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695333	OF	Matt Holliday	Col	24.7247958834	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807435	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299936	SS	Nomar Garciaparra	LA	21.7310306237	OF	Grady Sizemore	Cle	21.6748206438	OF	Carlos Beltran	NyM	21.5951473439	2B	Tadahito Iguchi	ChW	21.1472713540	OF	Carlos Lee	Hou	21.0503131541	3B	Troy Glaus	Tor	21.0440582542	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479743	OF	Jason Bay	Pit	20.7658341644	OF	Carl Crawford	Tam	20.3127816345	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854946	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355649	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.088387850	OF	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	19.0829947551	SS	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18.7274782452	RP	Billy Wagner	NyM	18.4839825153	RP	J.J. Putz	Sea	18.3684979454	2B	Orlando Hudson	Ari	18.3249844355	RP	Takashi Saito	LA	18.1576944656	2B	Jeff Kent	LA	17.8570809957	DH	Jim Thome	ChW	17.8510913758	OF	Vernon Wells	Tor	17.7332385459	OF	Andruw Jones	Atl	17.5805931660	SP	Roy Oswalt	Hou	17.0065722461	2B	Howie Kendrick	Ana	16.7721298162	RP	Francisco Rodriguez	Ana	16.4952799663	2B	Robinson Cano	NyY	16.4398657664	OF	Bob Abreu	NyY	16.4390770865	OF	Ichiro Suzuki	Sea	16.3316733566	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	16.2888075567	RP	Joel Zumaya	Det	16.2668799768	RP	Scott Linebrink	SD	16.0467889169	OF	Hideki Matsui	NyY	15.8802975470	SP	Carlos Zambrano	ChC	15.4213343571	SP	John Smoltz	Atl	15.144422172	OF	Jermaine Dye	ChW	15.1132461973	SP	Jake Peavy	SD	15.03641774	RP	Rafael Soriano	Atl	15.0263079875	RP	Huston Street	Oak	15.00094276	SP	Brandon Webb	Ari	14.2603757577	OF	Johnny Damon	NyY	13.6573956878	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.418162779	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA	12.9630532880	SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	12.2771784781	SS	Rafael Furcal	LA	12.1783324782	SP	Curt Schilling	Bos	11.6929740783	SP	Matt Cain	SF	10.6948057484	RP	Chad Cordero	Was	10.6848400785	SP	Jason Schmidt	LA	10.5923949986	OF	Raul Ibanez	Sea	10.5399536287	SP	Dave Bush	Mil	10.3591430188	SP	C.C. Sabathia	Cle	10.1949779989	SP	Randy Johnson	Ari	10.1401516490	SP	Dan Haren	Oak	10.1076980791	SP	Felix Hernandez	Sea	9.79790801792	RP	Eric Gagne	Tex	9.54549397493	SP	Aaron Harang	Cin	9.41163666894	RP	Aaron Heilman	NyM	9.37125100995	SP	John Lackey	Ana	9.09619696196	SP	Jeremy Bonderman	Det	9.02345093897	RP	Chad Qualls	Hou	8.93323024898	2B	Ian Kinsler	Tex	8.82334174899	RP	Jon Rauch	Was	8.691270008100	OF	Magglio Ordonez	Det	8.485079949

 

[JZilla]

 

[MelvinTScupper]

if that's the cheatsheet, it's your league that sucks.

 

[Gonzo Stokes]

Test it in a yahoo league. The problem is that you have to field a complete team, and pay more attention to VORP.

 

[Tiger Fan]

if that's the cheatsheet, it's your league that sucks.

explanation?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Test it in a yahoo league. The problem is that you have to field a complete team, and pay more attention to VORP.

I've used it the past two years in my league with some success.....but I'm looking for flaws in my system and ways to improve it...TIA

 

[MelvinTScupper]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model

1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.

2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)

3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

if that's the cheatsheet, it's your league that sucks.

explanation?

1. SP = RP? Horrible. Much more difficult for an SP to give you 7 innings than for a MR or a closer to give you 1.2. ARod is great in almost every category. Why is he so low on your sheet?

 

[bialczabub]

Below I describe how I go making cheatsheets for my 5x5 roto league:

In general, I project out stats, group players by position, take the mean and standard deviation of each statistical category for each player expected to start in the league, and then sum the standard deviations away from the mean (the z scores).

This is a good rough estimate of who the best players are. Of course, as Melvin pointed out, flex players make everything a bit confusing because they're hard to group.

I also think it's important to consider the predictive nature of some stats, and the near randomness of others. Be wary of picking the reliever you projected to have 4 wins and a 1.20 WHIP over the reliever you only expected to have 3 wins over the 1.15 WHIP. Or similarly, watch out for putting too much emphasis on SB. Wildly fluctuates depending on managers, situations, etc.

 

[Gonzo Stokes]

Some end results.

Offense greatly outweighs pitching : Agree. Especially in the draft. There is more pitching on every wire in every league this morning than hitting.

SP is essentially = to RP : Considering closers? I like to punt saves during the draft, and find them later. Seems like closers go higher in the draft, there is always a closer run, then when the dust settles after, the SP have better trade value relative to ADP.

Middle Relievers are great value compared to where they are drafted : This has always appeared so. I have never fully used this strategy, though. Makes little sense to use it in the draft, unless you think other owners are going to target MRs as well. Zumaya was the only MR taken in our draft, and he has since been dropped for some SP.

SB are really overrated : Isolated steals are really overrated in the draft. The more you can marry them to other stats, the better. It's easy to find steals playing pitcher and catcher matchups without leaving someone like Podsednik in your lineup to bat .250 everyday.

 

[Chase Stuart]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

None of those reasons explain why VBD can't be used for fantasy baseball.

 

[bucs4life_99]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

Some questions I have, to hopefully provide food for thought.1. I agree with this, but there are only a handful of players that fall into this category. If we can still fit an accurate model for the other 95% of the players out there, I think it's worth doing.2. This isn't much different from a "Flex" position in football, just more complex. 3. I don't really see how this is a problem, because all projections are based on estimates anyway. So what' so different about estimating the number of wins that a pitcher will get? I don't see it as much less predictable than say,predicting touchdowns in Fantasy Football.To me, the best way to do a VBD for baseball would be to convert all statistics into a baseline point value. So you'd have to make an arbitrary judgment that hits are worth 1 point, HRs are worth 5 points, or whatever. This is where I think the tough part comes in, determining how much to weight certain categories. But once values are established, i's all a matter of projections from there.Of course Roto baseball has the additional layer of balance that football does not because it's easier to see how stats directly translate into points (since you know you get 6 points for a Touchdown, etc.). Additionally, you must also be mindful of the value of a player, not only overall, but specific category value. This is where I can really see dynamic VBD being helpful, since you must weight the player's impact on specific categories as well so as not to end up with all low average high power guys.Still, I think it's doable, it just takes a lot more serious thought that football.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

Some questions I have, to hopefully provide food for thought.1. I agree with this, but there are only a handful of players that fall into this category. If we can still fit an accurate model for the other 95% of the players out there, I think it's worth doing.2. This isn't much different from a "Flex" position in football, just more complex. 3. I don't really see how this is a problem, because all projections are based on estimates anyway. So what' so different about estimating the number of wins that a pitcher will get? I don't see it as much less predictable than say,predicting touchdowns in Fantasy Football.To me, the best way to do a VBD for baseball would be to convert all statistics into a baseline point value. So you'd have to make an arbitrary judgment that hits are worth 1 point, HRs are worth 5 points, or whatever. This is where I think the tough part comes in, determining how much to weight certain categories. But once values are established, i's all a matter of projections from there.Of course Roto baseball has the additional layer of balance that football does not because it's easier to see how stats directly translate into points (since you know you get 6 points for a Touchdown, etc.). Additionally, you must also be mindful of the value of a player, not only overall, but specific category value. This is where I can really see dynamic VBD being helpful, since you must weight the player's impact on specific categories as well so as not to end up with all low average high power guys.Still, I think it's doable, it just takes a lot more serious thought that football.

Of course it's DO-able. He already showed you his results. Example A for why it will suckJohnny Damon is listed above Travis Hafner.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

None of those reasons explain why VBD can't be used for fantasy baseball.

I didn't say it couldn't be used. I said it wouldn't work.

 

[bucs4life_99]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

Some questions I have, to hopefully provide food for thought.1. I agree with this, but there are only a handful of players that fall into this category. If we can still fit an accurate model for the other 95% of the players out there, I think it's worth doing.2. This isn't much different from a "Flex" position in football, just more complex. 3. I don't really see how this is a problem, because all projections are based on estimates anyway. So what' so different about estimating the number of wins that a pitcher will get? I don't see it as much less predictable than say,predicting touchdowns in Fantasy Football.To me, the best way to do a VBD for baseball would be to convert all statistics into a baseline point value. So you'd have to make an arbitrary judgment that hits are worth 1 point, HRs are worth 5 points, or whatever. This is where I think the tough part comes in, determining how much to weight certain categories. But once values are established, i's all a matter of projections from there.Of course Roto baseball has the additional layer of balance that football does not because it's easier to see how stats directly translate into points (since you know you get 6 points for a Touchdown, etc.). Additionally, you must also be mindful of the value of a player, not only overall, but specific category value. This is where I can really see dynamic VBD being helpful, since you must weight the player's impact on specific categories as well so as not to end up with all low average high power guys.Still, I think it's doable, it just takes a lot more serious thought that football.

Of course it's DO-able. He already showed you his results. Example A for why it will suckJohnny Damon is listed above Travis Hafner.

I think his method is flawed, which is why Damon is above Hafner, to name an obvious example. But I still think that with the right method, it CAN work. That's what I meant by doable.

 

[bostonfred]

Maybe this is because it's head to head, and not roto, but I don't understand this:

4. I next weigh each of the 5 categories so they add up with a total weight of 5. I prefer the following weights (HR: 1.25, BA: 1, R: 1, RBI: 1, SB: .75) I have no mathematical backup for these weights, but here is my explanation on why HR is weighted so heavily and SB so lightly. I don’t weigh the pitching categories b/c they are all independent of each other.

HR – obviously, if you hit a HR, you are crediting 4/5 categories, no-brainer

BA - when you get a hit, you set yourself up for 4/5 categories

R – You can score a Run after reaching base anyway.

RBI – you can only get an RBI via hit, walk, or sacrifice

SB – SB #’s fluctuate greatly and are too difficult to gage from year-to-year. A SB might help generate a Run later in the inning, but can’t help any other category

Aren't you double counting the value of home runs if you're using this formula on projections that already include home runs, runs, BA and RBI? And aren't you undervaluing stolen bases for their scarcity? Why is this model better than one that treats all statistics as important?

I do like the idea for weighting BA, ERA and WHIP. That seems to make sense. I don't know what baseline you should use, though. Should it be the baseline of all players? All starters? Just the starters on the fantasy teams in your league that don't quit halfway through the year when they're out of contention? What about the guys who add/drop pitchers all the time. Would last year's per team averages in your league be a better judge?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Some end results.Offense greatly outweighs pitching : Agree. Especially in the draft. There is more pitching on every wire in every league this morning than hitting.SP is essentially = to RP : Considering closers? I like to punt saves during the draft, and find them later. Seems like closers go higher in the draft, there is always a closer run, then when the dust settles after, the SP have better trade value relative to ADP.Middle Relievers are great value compared to where they are drafted : This has always appeared so. I have never fully used this strategy, though. Makes little sense to use it in the draft, unless you think other owners are going to target MRs as well. Zumaya was the only MR taken in our draft, and he has since been dropped for some SP.SB are really overrated : Isolated steals are really overrated in the draft. The more you can marry them to other stats, the better. It's easy to find steals playing pitcher and catcher matchups without leaving someone like Podsednik in your lineup to bat .250 everyday.

I'm targeting Scott Shields and Rincon in my later rounds b/c we start 4 RP.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

VBD can easily be used in baseball if you know what you're doing. Those criticizing the effort in this thread are most likely ones that are incapable of figuring out how to set up the VBD formulas for ERA, WHIP, and AVG.

This is the 3rd year I have used my version of VBD. I won a league with it twice already. We'll see what happens this year.

Just like football, you use your VBD cheatsheet as a guide. For example, Just because it tells you Ian Kinsler is the #3 2B does not mean you take him as the #3 2B off the board. It means you wait a few rounds to get a 2B and grab Kinsler when the value is right.

 

[bostonfred]

Of course it's DO-able. He already showed you his results. Example A for why it will suckJohnny Damon is listed above Travis Hafner.

I don't get this one either. Especially since he tried to devalue SB. I think one problem with FBBVBD is that stolen bases are scarce, but a lot of people tank them. Having the fifth best team at stolen bases isn't anywhere near as valuable if the bottom five all punted the category. You have to take your league's makeup into account.

 

[Tiger Fan]

here's several more reasons that VBD can't be determined with nearly ANY model1. UTIL and DH positions in Baseball. Imagine having 3 flex players on your football roster and using VBD.2. Multipositional capability of players. Imagine if you could use a good 2nd tier RB like Thomas Jones as a WR if you wanted to (since he caught X number of passes last year)3. Categories like "wins" -- can you imagine if your fantasy QB got additional points only if he won the game?

1. You simply bump down your last starter (or whatever you use for a baseline accordingly)2. If a guy like Soriano last year and be used as a 2B and @ OF, then you include him in both of your projections for each position3. Most leagues count Wins as stats, no?

 

[guru_007]

TF -

It looks like you put a lot of effort into this, as you changed "brake down" to break down".

Let me digest this and post some thoughts. On first glance, I tend to agree with MTScupper's analysis that it's not workable....but let me ponder a bit more.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Maybe this is because it's head to head, and not roto, but I don't understand this:

4. I next weigh each of the 5 categories so they add up with a total weight of 5. I prefer the following weights (HR: 1.25, BA: 1, R: 1, RBI: 1, SB: .75) I have no mathematical backup for these weights, but here is my explanation on why HR is weighted so heavily and SB so lightly. I don’t weigh the pitching categories b/c they are all independent of each other.

HR – obviously, if you hit a HR, you are crediting 4/5 categories, no-brainer

BA - when you get a hit, you set yourself up for 4/5 categories

R – You can score a Run after reaching base anyway.

RBI – you can only get an RBI via hit, walk, or sacrifice

SB – SB #’s fluctuate greatly and are too difficult to gage from year-to-year. A SB might help generate a Run later in the inning, but can’t help any other category

Aren't you double counting the value of home runs if you're using this formula on projections that already include home runs, runs, BA and RBI? And aren't you undervaluing stolen bases for their scarcity? Why is this model better than one that treats all statistics as important?

I do like the idea for weighting BA, ERA and WHIP. That seems to make sense. I don't know what baseline you should use, though. Should it be the baseline of all players? All starters? Just the starters on the fantasy teams in your league that don't quit halfway through the year when they're out of contention? What about the guys who add/drop pitchers all the time. Would last year's per team averages in your league be a better judge?

Maybe it's b/c the way my league works. We total all of the starters' stats for the week in each categroy. For example: If all 9 of my starters hit 10 HRs total in one week, and my opponents 9 starters hit 8, then I receive 1 point. The maximum any team can receive for the week is 10 points (one for each category)....this makes it alot more difficult to run VBD and maybe that's where the confusion lies?As for the "double counting of HRs" - maybe after explaining my league setup, you understand more? It doesn't matter if I win the category by 1 HR or 50 HRs, the end result is the same for me---1 point. By addign some extra weight to HRs, I'm increasing the value of players who hit more HRs b/c they help me in 4 other categories.

I could possibly be undervaluing SBs b/c of their scarcity..but let's take a guy like Scott Posednick for example. He's projected (by Rototimes) to have 43 steals this year and below baseline in every other category. Having him on my team will hurt me in 4 of 5 categories.

 

[Tiger Fan]

TF -It looks like you put a lot of effort into this, as you changed "brake down" to break down".Let me digest this and post some thoughts. On first glance, I tend to agree with MTScupper's analysis that it's not workable....but let me ponder a bit more.

I'm not saying it's perfect by any means, but on the surface it makes sense to me and I have no problem explaining it. I am very curious into where I can improve and how.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

VBD can easily be used in baseball if you know what you're doing. Those criticizing the effort in this thread are most likely ones that are incapable of figuring out how to set up the VBD formulas for ERA, WHIP, and AVG.This is the 3rd year I have used my version of VBD. I won a league with it twice already. We'll see what happens this year.Just like football, you use your VBD cheatsheet as a guide. For example, Just because it tells you Ian Kinsler is the #3 2B does not mean you take him as the #3 2B off the board. It means you wait a few rounds to get a 2B and grab Kinsler when the value is right.

Let's see yours.

 

[bostonfred]

Maybe this is because it's head to head, and not roto, but I don't understand this:

4. I next weigh each of the 5 categories so they add up with a total weight of 5. I prefer the following weights (HR: 1.25, BA: 1, R: 1, RBI: 1, SB: .75) I have no mathematical backup for these weights, but here is my explanation on why HR is weighted so heavily and SB so lightly. I don’t weigh the pitching categories b/c they are all independent of each other.

HR – obviously, if you hit a HR, you are crediting 4/5 categories, no-brainer

BA - when you get a hit, you set yourself up for 4/5 categories

R – You can score a Run after reaching base anyway.

RBI – you can only get an RBI via hit, walk, or sacrifice

SB – SB #’s fluctuate greatly and are too difficult to gage from year-to-year. A SB might help generate a Run later in the inning, but can’t help any other category

Aren't you double counting the value of home runs if you're using this formula on projections that already include home runs, runs, BA and RBI? And aren't you undervaluing stolen bases for their scarcity? Why is this model better than one that treats all statistics as important?

I do like the idea for weighting BA, ERA and WHIP. That seems to make sense. I don't know what baseline you should use, though. Should it be the baseline of all players? All starters? Just the starters on the fantasy teams in your league that don't quit halfway through the year when they're out of contention? What about the guys who add/drop pitchers all the time. Would last year's per team averages in your league be a better judge?

Maybe it's b/c the way my league works. We total all of the starters' stats for the week in each categroy. For example: If all 9 of my starters hit 10 HRs total in one week, and my opponents 9 starters hit 8, then I receive 1 point. The maximum any team can receive for the week is 10 points (one for each category)....this makes it alot more difficult to run VBD and maybe that's where the confusion lies?As for the "double counting of HRs" - maybe after explaining my league setup, you understand more? It doesn't matter if I win the category by 1 HR or 50 HRs, the end result is the same for me---1 point. By addign some extra weight to HRs, I'm increasing the value of players who hit more HRs b/c they help me in 4 other categories.

I could possibly be undervaluing SBs b/c of their scarcity..but let's take a guy like Scott Posednick for example. He's projected (by Rototimes) to have 43 steals this year and below baseline in every other category. Having him on my team will hurt me in 4 of 5 categories.

I agree that you have to incorporate your league rules into FBBVBD. You can't just add numbers together to get a score like you do in fantasy football. The idea of double counting stats in any given week seems wrong. It should be zero sum. It would make more sense to me if you gave 1.15 weight to HR, .95 to runs, and .9 to RBIs, or something similar, to model the fact that a home run in week X will lead to more RBIs in week X.

Or maybe a better way would be to give triple weight to home runs, but subtract your HR projections from your run and RBI projections. So if a guy should get 40/120/120, you treat him as if he got 120/80/80. Or something similar.

I also understand the goal of devaluing SB. They fluctuate a lot, so if you get 162 stolen bases in a year, that doesn't give you 7 per week. Steals are definitely valuable because they are scarce. But maybe the baseline for your league is the issue. Maybe you should use a baseline of average steals/team in your leaue from last year, divided by players per team? That would give you an idea of what your average guy needs to do to stay above the baseline. And if you find that some guys tank steals altogether, maybe you need to adjust further.

But simply taking away from SB and adding to HR doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[Tiger Fan]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating1	2B	Chase Utley	Phi	151.36136512	1B	Albert Pujols	StL	131.78251243	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905884	3B	Alex Rodriguez	NyY	83.052235285	3B	David Wright	NyM	80.782676646	DH	David Ortiz	Bos	75.501821147	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.846322518	1B	Ryan Howard	Phi	70.637559189	3B	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	69.5747321110	SS	Miguel Tejada	Bal	66.1553952811	SS	Jose Reyes	NyM	61.1997513512	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905413	DH	Travis Hafner	Cle	56.632245414	1B	Mark Teixeira	Tex	54.9290520515	SS	Derek Jeter	NyY	52.9514140416	SS	Carlos Guillen	Det	50.8096719517	1B	Derrek Lee	ChC	50.3391503118	SS	Michael Young	Tex	50.3113653119	SS	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	48.690133320	3B	Garrett Atkins	Col	48.5760247121	1B	Justin Morneau	Min	47.6037567522	3B	Aramis Ramirez	ChC	47.1422551223	SS	Bill Hall	Mil	38.2369032424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060625	1B	Paul Konerko	ChW	31.5518612426	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387227	OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Ana	30.8280505128	OF	Lance Berkman	Hou	30.5683829329	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677430	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772731	OF	Manny Ramirez	Bos	25.3138492532	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695333	OF	Matt Holliday	Col	24.7247958834	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807435	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299936	SS	Nomar Garciaparra	LA	21.7310306237	OF	Grady Sizemore	Cle	21.6748206438	OF	Carlos Beltran	NyM	21.5951473439	2B	Tadahito Iguchi	ChW	21.1472713540	OF	Carlos Lee	Hou	21.0503131541	3B	Troy Glaus	Tor	21.0440582542	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479743	OF	Jason Bay	Pit	20.7658341644	OF	Carl Crawford	Tam	20.3127816345	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854946	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355649	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.088387850	OF	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	19.0829947551	SS	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18.7274782452	RP	Billy Wagner	NyM	18.4839825153	RP	J.J. Putz	Sea	18.3684979454	2B	Orlando Hudson	Ari	18.3249844355	RP	Takashi Saito	LA	18.1576944656	2B	Jeff Kent	LA	17.8570809957	DH	Jim Thome	ChW	17.8510913758	OF	Vernon Wells	Tor	17.7332385459	OF	Andruw Jones	Atl	17.5805931660	SP	Roy Oswalt	Hou	17.0065722461	2B	Howie Kendrick	Ana	16.7721298162	RP	Francisco Rodriguez	Ana	16.4952799663	2B	Robinson Cano	NyY	16.4398657664	OF	Bob Abreu	NyY	16.4390770865	OF	Ichiro Suzuki	Sea	16.3316733566	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	16.2888075567	RP	Joel Zumaya	Det	16.2668799768	RP	Scott Linebrink	SD	16.0467889169	OF	Hideki Matsui	NyY	15.8802975470	SP	Carlos Zambrano	ChC	15.4213343571	SP	John Smoltz	Atl	15.144422172	OF	Jermaine Dye	ChW	15.1132461973	SP	Jake Peavy	SD	15.03641774	RP	Rafael Soriano	Atl	15.0263079875	RP	Huston Street	Oak	15.00094276	SP	Brandon Webb	Ari	14.2603757577	OF	Johnny Damon	NyY	13.6573956878	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.418162779	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA	12.9630532880	SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	12.2771784781	SS	Rafael Furcal	LA	12.1783324782	SP	Curt Schilling	Bos	11.6929740783	SP	Matt Cain	SF	10.6948057484	RP	Chad Cordero	Was	10.6848400785	SP	Jason Schmidt	LA	10.5923949986	OF	Raul Ibanez	Sea	10.5399536287	SP	Dave Bush	Mil	10.3591430188	SP	C.C. Sabathia	Cle	10.1949779989	SP	Randy Johnson	Ari	10.1401516490	SP	Dan Haren	Oak	10.1076980791	SP	Felix Hernandez	Sea	9.79790801792	RP	Eric Gagne	Tex	9.54549397493	SP	Aaron Harang	Cin	9.41163666894	RP	Aaron Heilman	NyM	9.37125100995	SP	John Lackey	Ana	9.09619696196	SP	Jeremy Bonderman	Det	9.02345093897	RP	Chad Qualls	Hou	8.93323024898	2B	Ian Kinsler	Tex	8.82334174899	RP	Jon Rauch	Was	8.691270008100	OF	Magglio Ordonez	Det	8.485079949

 

[MelvinTScupper]

and I'd agree that it's NOT difficult to do this in EACH position, but given the much larger rosters, the 5-6 multipositional spots, and the difficulty in setting values for VBD that again, it's BRUTAL to have it be as helpful as it is in football.

e.g. You've determined that Alex Gordon is the 9th rated 3rd baseman, based on VBD. Ok, he's 3B, CI, DH, and Util eligible. Great. Which NON-3rd baseman is worth drafting ahead of him at CI, DH or Util once you have a 3B already?

 

[Tiger Fan]

Maybe this is because it's head to head, and not roto, but I don't understand this:

4. I next weigh each of the 5 categories so they add up with a total weight of 5. I prefer the following weights (HR: 1.25, BA: 1, R: 1, RBI: 1, SB: .75) I have no mathematical backup for these weights, but here is my explanation on why HR is weighted so heavily and SB so lightly. I don’t weigh the pitching categories b/c they are all independent of each other.

HR – obviously, if you hit a HR, you are crediting 4/5 categories, no-brainer

BA - when you get a hit, you set yourself up for 4/5 categories

R – You can score a Run after reaching base anyway.

RBI – you can only get an RBI via hit, walk, or sacrifice

SB – SB #’s fluctuate greatly and are too difficult to gage from year-to-year. A SB might help generate a Run later in the inning, but can’t help any other category

Aren't you double counting the value of home runs if you're using this formula on projections that already include home runs, runs, BA and RBI? And aren't you undervaluing stolen bases for their scarcity? Why is this model better than one that treats all statistics as important?

I do like the idea for weighting BA, ERA and WHIP. That seems to make sense. I don't know what baseline you should use, though. Should it be the baseline of all players? All starters? Just the starters on the fantasy teams in your league that don't quit halfway through the year when they're out of contention? What about the guys who add/drop pitchers all the time. Would last year's per team averages in your league be a better judge?

Maybe it's b/c the way my league works. We total all of the starters' stats for the week in each categroy. For example: If all 9 of my starters hit 10 HRs total in one week, and my opponents 9 starters hit 8, then I receive 1 point. The maximum any team can receive for the week is 10 points (one for each category)....this makes it alot more difficult to run VBD and maybe that's where the confusion lies?As for the "double counting of HRs" - maybe after explaining my league setup, you understand more? It doesn't matter if I win the category by 1 HR or 50 HRs, the end result is the same for me---1 point. By addign some extra weight to HRs, I'm increasing the value of players who hit more HRs b/c they help me in 4 other categories.

I could possibly be undervaluing SBs b/c of their scarcity..but let's take a guy like Scott Posednick for example. He's projected (by Rototimes) to have 43 steals this year and below baseline in every other category. Having him on my team will hurt me in 4 of 5 categories.

I agree that you have to incorporate your league rules into FBBVBD. You can't just add numbers together to get a score like you do in fantasy football. The idea of double counting stats in any given week seems wrong. It should be zero sum. It would make more sense to me if you gave 1.15 weight to HR, .95 to runs, and .9 to RBIs, or something similar, to model the fact that a home run in week X will lead to more RBIs in week X.

Or maybe a better way would be to give triple weight to home runs, but subtract your HR projections from your run and RBI projections. So if a guy should get 40/120/120, you treat him as if he got 120/80/80. Or something similar.

I also understand the goal of devaluing SB. They fluctuate a lot, so if you get 162 stolen bases in a year, that doesn't give you 7 per week. Steals are definitely valuable because they are scarce. But maybe the baseline for your league is the issue. Maybe you should use a baseline of average steals/team in your leaue from last year, divided by players per team? That would give you an idea of what your average guy needs to do to stay above the baseline. And if you find that some guys tank steals altogether, maybe you need to adjust further.

But simply taking away from SB and adding to HR doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Thanks...definitely something to think about.

 

[bostonfred]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating26	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387229	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677432	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695335	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299942	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479745	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327949	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.0883878

Something about this still seems way, way off.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating1	2B	Chase Utley	Phi	151.36136512	1B	Albert Pujols	StL	131.78251243	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905884	3B	Alex Rodriguez	NyY	83.052235285	3B	David Wright	NyM	80.782676646	DH	David Ortiz	Bos	75.501821147	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.846322518	1B	Ryan Howard	Phi	70.637559189	3B	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	69.5747321110	SS	Miguel Tejada	Bal	66.1553952811	SS	Jose Reyes	NyM	61.1997513512	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905413	DH	Travis Hafner	Cle	56.632245414	1B	Mark Teixeira	Tex	54.9290520515	SS	Derek Jeter	NyY	52.9514140416	SS	Carlos Guillen	Det	50.8096719517	1B	Derrek Lee	ChC	50.3391503118	SS	Michael Young	Tex	50.3113653119	SS	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	48.690133320	3B	Garrett Atkins	Col	48.5760247121	1B	Justin Morneau	Min	47.6037567522	3B	Aramis Ramirez	ChC	47.1422551223	SS	Bill Hall	Mil	38.2369032424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060625	1B	Paul Konerko	ChW	31.5518612426	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387227	OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Ana	30.8280505128	OF	Lance Berkman	Hou	30.5683829329	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677430	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772731	OF	Manny Ramirez	Bos	25.3138492532	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695333	OF	Matt Holliday	Col	24.7247958834	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807435	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299936	SS	Nomar Garciaparra	LA	21.7310306237	OF	Grady Sizemore	Cle	21.6748206438	OF	Carlos Beltran	NyM	21.5951473439	2B	Tadahito Iguchi	ChW	21.1472713540	OF	Carlos Lee	Hou	21.0503131541	3B	Troy Glaus	Tor	21.0440582542	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479743	OF	Jason Bay	Pit	20.7658341644	OF	Carl Crawford	Tam	20.3127816345	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854946	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355649	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.088387850	OF	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	19.0829947551	SS	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18.7274782452	RP	Billy Wagner	NyM	18.4839825153	RP	J.J. Putz	Sea	18.3684979454	2B	Orlando Hudson	Ari	18.3249844355	RP	Takashi Saito	LA	18.1576944656	2B	Jeff Kent	LA	17.8570809957	DH	Jim Thome	ChW	17.8510913758	OF	Vernon Wells	Tor	17.7332385459	OF	Andruw Jones	Atl	17.5805931660	SP	Roy Oswalt	Hou	17.0065722461	2B	Howie Kendrick	Ana	16.7721298162	RP	Francisco Rodriguez	Ana	16.4952799663	2B	Robinson Cano	NyY	16.4398657664	OF	Bob Abreu	NyY	16.4390770865	OF	Ichiro Suzuki	Sea	16.3316733566	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	16.2888075567	RP	Joel Zumaya	Det	16.2668799768	RP	Scott Linebrink	SD	16.0467889169	OF	Hideki Matsui	NyY	15.8802975470	SP	Carlos Zambrano	ChC	15.4213343571	SP	John Smoltz	Atl	15.144422172	OF	Jermaine Dye	ChW	15.1132461973	SP	Jake Peavy	SD	15.03641774	RP	Rafael Soriano	Atl	15.0263079875	RP	Huston Street	Oak	15.00094276	SP	Brandon Webb	Ari	14.2603757577	OF	Johnny Damon	NyY	13.6573956878	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.418162779	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA	12.9630532880	SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	12.2771784781	SS	Rafael Furcal	LA	12.1783324782	SP	Curt Schilling	Bos	11.6929740783	SP	Matt Cain	SF	10.6948057484	RP	Chad Cordero	Was	10.6848400785	SP	Jason Schmidt	LA	10.5923949986	OF	Raul Ibanez	Sea	10.5399536287	SP	Dave Bush	Mil	10.3591430188	SP	C.C. Sabathia	Cle	10.1949779989	SP	Randy Johnson	Ari	10.1401516490	SP	Dan Haren	Oak	10.1076980791	SP	Felix Hernandez	Sea	9.79790801792	RP	Eric Gagne	Tex	9.54549397493	SP	Aaron Harang	Cin	9.41163666894	RP	Aaron Heilman	NyM	9.37125100995	SP	John Lackey	Ana	9.09619696196	SP	Jeremy Bonderman	Det	9.02345093897	RP	Chad Qualls	Hou	8.93323024898	2B	Ian Kinsler	Tex	8.82334174899	RP	Jon Rauch	Was	8.691270008100	OF	Magglio Ordonez	Det	8.485079949

Mike Piazza ahead of Manny RamirezMike Barret ahead of Curt SchillingScot Shields and Nomar Garciaparra ahead of Jason Bay, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter.HOLY ####!!!!

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Pudge ahead of Konerko, Johan Santana and Lance Berkman



Sorry TF....

 

[guru_007]

Okay....some thoughts, but before I begin, I will preface this post by saying that I only do roto leagues, not h2h leagues. I know the very first line basically said that this is only for H2H leagues, but I believe my opinions can be used for either type of league.

First off, I don't think you can use the baseline where it stands. The reason is, the talent pool/replacement player pool is significantly deeper in baseball than in football. I'm not sure I can offer you a better alternative, which is why I don't use a VBD system for baseball leagues. Most leagues today are simply too shallow to employ this. You would really need to play a 14 man AL or NL only league to justify a baseline.

Next, it always gets me when people devalue steals. I understand that when someone gets a HR, they also get a hit, a run and an RBI. BUT, the pool of home runs is soooo much bigger than the pool of SB's, it's hard to justify this unequal ranking, imo. Last year there were 88 guys that hit 20+ home runs, while there were only 35 that stole 20+ bases. I know there are always these shallow, steal only, deplete other categories guys, but the total steals available is just simply not there. There are plenty of shallow HR only hitters out there too whose value should not be inflated.

Now your pitching assumptions/calculations are just plain nuts, imo. Johann Santana is ranked 50th overall? Joel Zumaya > Roy Oswalt? Obviously this is wrong.

Personally, I think you should leave pitchers out of the equation altogether here, and stick to offense first.

Now, you need to address multi-position eligibility too. This will add to value. Perhaps you can add a modifier on there too for injury possibility. There is something to be said to using a modified VBD approach so as to maximize player value by position. A lot of people already use the tiering approach. This doesn't place such a hardline draft value on each player, and allows you to more vaguely figure out where a guy should be drafted or at what dollar value. Furthermore, it should help identify draft trends, as well as runs on certain positions.

Just my thoughts on this thing.

 

[bostonfred]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating1	2B	Chase Utley	Phi	151.36136512	1B	Albert Pujols	StL	131.78251243	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905884	3B	Alex Rodriguez	NyY	83.052235285	3B	David Wright	NyM	80.782676646	DH	David Ortiz	Bos	75.501821147	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.846322518	1B	Ryan Howard	Phi	70.637559189	3B	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	69.5747321110	SS	Miguel Tejada	Bal	66.1553952811	SS	Jose Reyes	NyM	61.1997513512	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905413	DH	Travis Hafner	Cle	56.632245414	1B	Mark Teixeira	Tex	54.9290520515	SS	Derek Jeter	NyY	52.9514140416	SS	Carlos Guillen	Det	50.8096719517	1B	Derrek Lee	ChC	50.3391503118	SS	Michael Young	Tex	50.3113653119	SS	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	48.690133320	3B	Garrett Atkins	Col	48.5760247121	1B	Justin Morneau	Min	47.6037567522	3B	Aramis Ramirez	ChC	47.1422551223	SS	Bill Hall	Mil	38.2369032424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060625	1B	Paul Konerko	ChW	31.5518612426	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387227	OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Ana	30.8280505128	OF	Lance Berkman	Hou	30.5683829329	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677430	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772731	OF	Manny Ramirez	Bos	25.3138492532	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695333	OF	Matt Holliday	Col	24.7247958834	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807435	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299936	SS	Nomar Garciaparra	LA	21.7310306237	OF	Grady Sizemore	Cle	21.6748206438	OF	Carlos Beltran	NyM	21.5951473439	2B	Tadahito Iguchi	ChW	21.1472713540	OF	Carlos Lee	Hou	21.0503131541	3B	Troy Glaus	Tor	21.0440582542	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479743	OF	Jason Bay	Pit	20.7658341644	OF	Carl Crawford	Tam	20.3127816345	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854946	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355649	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.088387850	OF	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	19.0829947551	SS	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18.7274782452	RP	Billy Wagner	NyM	18.4839825153	RP	J.J. Putz	Sea	18.3684979454	2B	Orlando Hudson	Ari	18.3249844355	RP	Takashi Saito	LA	18.1576944656	2B	Jeff Kent	LA	17.8570809957	DH	Jim Thome	ChW	17.8510913758	OF	Vernon Wells	Tor	17.7332385459	OF	Andruw Jones	Atl	17.5805931660	SP	Roy Oswalt	Hou	17.0065722461	2B	Howie Kendrick	Ana	16.7721298162	RP	Francisco Rodriguez	Ana	16.4952799663	2B	Robinson Cano	NyY	16.4398657664	OF	Bob Abreu	NyY	16.4390770865	OF	Ichiro Suzuki	Sea	16.3316733566	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	16.2888075567	RP	Joel Zumaya	Det	16.2668799768	RP	Scott Linebrink	SD	16.0467889169	OF	Hideki Matsui	NyY	15.8802975470	SP	Carlos Zambrano	ChC	15.4213343571	SP	John Smoltz	Atl	15.144422172	OF	Jermaine Dye	ChW	15.1132461973	SP	Jake Peavy	SD	15.03641774	RP	Rafael Soriano	Atl	15.0263079875	RP	Huston Street	Oak	15.00094276	SP	Brandon Webb	Ari	14.2603757577	OF	Johnny Damon	NyY	13.6573956878	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.418162779	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA	12.9630532880	SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	12.2771784781	SS	Rafael Furcal	LA	12.1783324782	SP	Curt Schilling	Bos	11.6929740783	SP	Matt Cain	SF	10.6948057484	RP	Chad Cordero	Was	10.6848400785	SP	Jason Schmidt	LA	10.5923949986	OF	Raul Ibanez	Sea	10.5399536287	SP	Dave Bush	Mil	10.3591430188	SP	C.C. Sabathia	Cle	10.1949779989	SP	Randy Johnson	Ari	10.1401516490	SP	Dan Haren	Oak	10.1076980791	SP	Felix Hernandez	Sea	9.79790801792	RP	Eric Gagne	Tex	9.54549397493	SP	Aaron Harang	Cin	9.41163666894	RP	Aaron Heilman	NyM	9.37125100995	SP	John Lackey	Ana	9.09619696196	SP	Jeremy Bonderman	Det	9.02345093897	RP	Chad Qualls	Hou	8.93323024898	2B	Ian Kinsler	Tex	8.82334174899	RP	Jon Rauch	Was	8.691270008100	OF	Magglio Ordonez	Det	8.485079949

Mike Piazza ahead of Manny RamirezMike Barret ahead of Curt SchillingScot Shields and Nomar Garciaparra ahead of Jason Bay, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter.HOLY ####!!!!

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

 

[guru_007]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating3	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905887	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.8463225112	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060630	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772734	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807446	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355678	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.4181627

Mike Piazza ahead of Manny RamirezMike Barret ahead of Curt SchillingScot Shields and Nomar Garciaparra ahead of Jason Bay, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter.HOLY ####!!!!

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

What? You don't think 9 catchers should go in the first 80 picks?Actually....another thing to consider is whether it's a one catcher or two catcher league. I actually disagree with all the catcher projections, after the first three

 

[Tiger Fan]

I had a wrong formula in my spreadsheet, I just fixed it and reran the top 100. Here's the new outcome.....sorry for the confusion

Rank	Pos	Player	Team	Rating1	2B	Chase Utley	Phi	151.36136512	1B	Albert Pujols	StL	131.78251243	C	Joe Mauer	Min	84.313905884	3B	Alex Rodriguez	NyY	83.052235285	3B	David Wright	NyM	80.782676646	DH	David Ortiz	Bos	75.501821147	C	Brian McCann	Atl	73.846322518	1B	Ryan Howard	Phi	70.637559189	3B	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	69.5747321110	SS	Miguel Tejada	Bal	66.1553952811	SS	Jose Reyes	NyM	61.1997513512	C	Victor Martinez	Cle	60.2080905413	DH	Travis Hafner	Cle	56.632245414	1B	Mark Teixeira	Tex	54.9290520515	SS	Derek Jeter	NyY	52.9514140416	SS	Carlos Guillen	Det	50.8096719517	1B	Derrek Lee	ChC	50.3391503118	SS	Michael Young	Tex	50.3113653119	SS	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	48.690133320	3B	Garrett Atkins	Col	48.5760247121	1B	Justin Morneau	Min	47.6037567522	3B	Aramis Ramirez	ChC	47.1422551223	SS	Bill Hall	Mil	38.2369032424	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Det	37.754060625	1B	Paul Konerko	ChW	31.5518612426	SP	Johan Santana	Min	31.4201387227	OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Ana	30.8280505128	OF	Lance Berkman	Hou	30.5683829329	RP	Joe Nathan	Min	30.3270677430	C	Mike Piazza	Oak	27.7380772731	OF	Manny Ramirez	Bos	25.3138492532	RP	Mariano Rivera	NyY	24.8376695333	OF	Matt Holliday	Col	24.7247958834	C	Jorge Posada	NyY	23.4045807435	RP	Scot Shields	Ana	22.7032299936	SS	Nomar Garciaparra	LA	21.7310306237	OF	Grady Sizemore	Cle	21.6748206438	OF	Carlos Beltran	NyM	21.5951473439	2B	Tadahito Iguchi	ChW	21.1472713540	OF	Carlos Lee	Hou	21.0503131541	3B	Troy Glaus	Tor	21.0440582542	RP	B.J. Ryan	Tor	21.0173479743	OF	Jason Bay	Pit	20.7658341644	OF	Carl Crawford	Tam	20.3127816345	SP	Chris Carpenter	StL	20.1154854946	C	Kenji Johjima	Sea	19.7683113947	RP	Pat Neshek	Min	19.337327948	C	Ramon Hernandez	Bal	19.2603355649	SP	Roy Halladay	Tor	19.088387850	OF	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	19.0829947551	SS	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18.7274782452	RP	Billy Wagner	NyM	18.4839825153	RP	J.J. Putz	Sea	18.3684979454	2B	Orlando Hudson	Ari	18.3249844355	RP	Takashi Saito	LA	18.1576944656	2B	Jeff Kent	LA	17.8570809957	DH	Jim Thome	ChW	17.8510913758	OF	Vernon Wells	Tor	17.7332385459	OF	Andruw Jones	Atl	17.5805931660	SP	Roy Oswalt	Hou	17.0065722461	2B	Howie Kendrick	Ana	16.7721298162	RP	Francisco Rodriguez	Ana	16.4952799663	2B	Robinson Cano	NyY	16.4398657664	OF	Bob Abreu	NyY	16.4390770865	OF	Ichiro Suzuki	Sea	16.3316733566	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	16.2888075567	RP	Joel Zumaya	Det	16.2668799768	RP	Scott Linebrink	SD	16.0467889169	OF	Hideki Matsui	NyY	15.8802975470	SP	Carlos Zambrano	ChC	15.4213343571	SP	John Smoltz	Atl	15.144422172	OF	Jermaine Dye	ChW	15.1132461973	SP	Jake Peavy	SD	15.03641774	RP	Rafael Soriano	Atl	15.0263079875	RP	Huston Street	Oak	15.00094276	SP	Brandon Webb	Ari	14.2603757577	OF	Johnny Damon	NyY	13.6573956878	C	Mike Barrett	ChC	13.418162779	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA	12.9630532880	SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Bos	12.2771784781	SS	Rafael Furcal	LA	12.1783324782	SP	Curt Schilling	Bos	11.6929740783	SP	Matt Cain	SF	10.6948057484	RP	Chad Cordero	Was	10.6848400785	SP	Jason Schmidt	LA	10.5923949986	OF	Raul Ibanez	Sea	10.5399536287	SP	Dave Bush	Mil	10.3591430188	SP	C.C. Sabathia	Cle	10.1949779989	SP	Randy Johnson	Ari	10.1401516490	SP	Dan Haren	Oak	10.1076980791	SP	Felix Hernandez	Sea	9.79790801792	RP	Eric Gagne	Tex	9.54549397493	SP	Aaron Harang	Cin	9.41163666894	RP	Aaron Heilman	NyM	9.37125100995	SP	John Lackey	Ana	9.09619696196	SP	Jeremy Bonderman	Det	9.02345093897	RP	Chad Qualls	Hou	8.93323024898	2B	Ian Kinsler	Tex	8.82334174899	RP	Jon Rauch	Was	8.691270008100	OF	Magglio Ordonez	Det	8.485079949

Mike Piazza ahead of Manny RamirezMike Barret ahead of Curt SchillingScot Shields and Nomar Garciaparra ahead of Jason Bay, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter.HOLY ####!!!!

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

I agree that when looking at the cheatsheet that things look out of whack....however I'm looking for some objective data that can "get things normal" not just "adjust the baseline b/c it doesn't look right"Something has to give.

 

[Tiger Fan]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

 

[bostonfred]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I misread this the first time:

[For ERA: (Baseline ERA * IP) - (ERA - IP) For WHIP: (Baseline WHIP * IP) - (WHIP * IP). This follows the same theory as the BA above. It allows you to value 2 pitchers ERA and WHIP regardless of the number of innings they pitch]

It seems like a good formula should involve some combination of* baseline ERA and baseline IP, to set the baseline* Actual ERA and Actual IP, to measure the player* Actual ERA and baseline IP, to measure the player's effectiveness if he pitched a normal number of innings* baseline ERA and Actual IP, to measure what a player with that number of innings should do.

 

[Chase Stuart]

For those that think you can't use VBD in baseball:

Let's draft a 12 team league (using either Roto or total FP) using 2006 stats. This means that about 5 minutes after our draft is over, we can figure out who won the league.

If you think this is boring or stupid, then that shows you that VBD works in baseball (or you don't know what VBD means).

 

[bostonfred]

For those that think you can't use VBD in baseball:Let's draft a 12 team league (using either Roto or total FP) using 2006 stats. This means that about 5 minutes after our draft is over, we can figure out who won the league. If you think this is boring or stupid, then that shows you that VBD works in baseball (or you don't know what VBD means).

I'd be up for this.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

For those that think you can't use VBD in baseball:Let's draft a 12 team league (using either Roto or total FP) using 2006 stats. This means that about 5 minutes after our draft is over, we can figure out who won the league. If you think this is boring or stupid, then that shows you that VBD works in baseball (or you don't know what VBD means).

Ok, let's do it. Show me your VBD sheets from last year.

 

[Tiger Fan]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

What does that have to do with the limited # of inning that the forumla favors? The only category that IP really effects is Ks. Sure it has something to do with ERA and WHIP, but if your starting MRs who give you great WHIP/ERA than that is where the forumla is favoring.

 

[guru_007]

:X

 

[MelvinTScupper]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

What does that have to do with the limited # of inning that the forumla favors? The only category that IP really effects is Ks. Sure it has something to do with ERA and WHIP, but if your starting MRs who give you great WHIP/ERA than that is where the forumla is favoring.

So, you're punting Wins?

 

[Tiger Fan]

For those that think you can't use VBD in baseball:Let's draft a 12 team league (using either Roto or total FP) using 2006 stats. This means that about 5 minutes after our draft is over, we can figure out who won the league. If you think this is boring or stupid, then that shows you that VBD works in baseball (or you don't know what VBD means).

Ok, let's do it. Show me your VBD sheets from last year.

If someone can send me an excel file with 2006 stats, I'll throw it into my spreadsheet and see what the outcome is.TIA

 

[Tiger Fan]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

What does that have to do with the limited # of inning that the forumla favors? The only category that IP really effects is Ks. Sure it has something to do with ERA and WHIP, but if your starting MRs who give you great WHIP/ERA than that is where the forumla is favoring.

So, you're punting Wins?

No, just saying that Wins are almost impossible to predict and over the course of the season is virtually meaningless

 

[guru_007]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

What does that have to do with the limited # of inning that the forumla favors? The only category that IP really effects is Ks. Sure it has something to do with ERA and WHIP, but if your starting MRs who give you great WHIP/ERA than that is where the forumla is favoring.

TF- why not just plug in minor league pitchers there that have OUTSTANDING ERA's and WHIP's?Actually, there have been guys that have done this, in high dollar leagues. Pretty sure Perry VanHoek, who posts on FBG, employed this strategy. The thing is, starting pitchers should get significantly more wins and K's over the course of a year, thus the slight uptick in a quality starting pitchers ratios over an outstanding mr's ratio's is worth it.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

His catcher baseline is way off. Three catchers in the top 12 and eight in the top 50 makes me think he just needs to tweak the baseline. But it does give you an idea of how sensitive VBD is to little changes like that, which is why you may be right that it can't work.

Yeah, I'm aware. Plus, his pitching is too statistical based on WHIP and ERA. Doesn't take into account the number of innings required in order to get WINS. For a Zumaya to be ahead of Oswalt clearly shows how heavily he's weighting those ratios. If you drafted with his cheatsheet, you'd be starting SPs that would drag your ERA up into 4-5 becuase of the limited number of innings the guys his formula favors would be pitching.

I'm confused......SP and RP are grouped separately, so why woudl you be starting crappy ERA SPs?

What good is the top 100 then?

What does that have to do with the limited # of inning that the forumla favors? The only category that IP really effects is Ks. Sure it has something to do with ERA and WHIP, but if your starting MRs who give you great WHIP/ERA than that is where the forumla is favoring.

So, you're punting Wins?

No, just saying that Wins are almost impossible to predict and over the course of the season is virtually meaningless

:X keep at it.

 

[guru_007]

No, just saying that Wins are almost impossible to predict and over the course of the season is virtually meaningless

I don't think you're looking at this right.SP sometimes get two starts over the course of one week, sometimes even against crappy teams. IF you blow off starting pitching, you're never going to be able to exploit this.