Let's talk about WR Value (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

So I have been pondering a slightly different view on all the WR player threads. I thought maybe this could be helpful. I will post a current ranking of WR's to discuss.

Let's keep the discussion to why you think someone will produce better than the rank - or worse than the rank. Or who is not on the list of 24 that may finish in the top 24. Posts with insight are much better - but all posts are welcome.

So using MFL ADP after 8-1:

1 C.Johnson

2 Fitz

3 A.Johnson

4 J.Jones

5 Welker

6 Green

7 Jennings

8 White

9 Cruz

10 Nicks

11 Nelson

12 Marshall

13 Wallace

14 Dryant

15 D.Thomas

16 S.Smith

17 Colston

18 Harvin

19 Austin

20 V.Jackson

21 Maclin

22 Bowe

23 D.Jackson

24 Lloyd

Hopefully this will inspire some constructive thoughts.

 

[DiStefano]

So I have been pondering a slightly different view on all the WR player threads. I thought maybe this could be helpful. I will post a current ranking of WR's to discuss.Let's keep the discussion to why you think someone will produce better than the rank - or worse than the rank. Or who is not on the list of 24 that may finish in the top 24. Posts with insight are much better - but all posts are welcome.So using MFL ADP after 8-1:1 C.Johnson2 Fitz3 A.Jonson4 J.Jones5 Welker6 Green7 Jennings8 White9 Cruz10 Nicks11 Nelson12 Marshall13 Wallace14 Dryant15 D.Thomas16 S.Smith17 Colston18 Harvin19 Austin20 V.Jackson21 Maclin22 Bowe23 D.Jackson24 LloydHopefully this will inspire some constructive thoughts.

Welker is too high. Too many targets in NE. I see him 8-12. Marshall is THE target in CHI. I'd bump him up a few.

 

[Zeff]

It's been much-ballyhooed...but not nearly ballyhooed enough...that last year, after Ponder took over the reins at QB, Percy Harvin led the entire NFL in touches by a WR. If I recall correctly, it was 100 touches from that point, whereas #2 in the league had 74.

Heading into this year, Ponder will have had a full offseason to settle into the starting role. And the rest of the Vikes' receiving options are putrid almost beyond comprehension. This can be a bad thing if you're a Randy Moss in Oakland type, where no other options means you get blanketed and shut out all year. Or it can be a good thing if you're Wes Welker in a revamping 2009 New England offense with no other options, and you're the underneath default passing option.

Harvin's situation is a lot more like Welker's. BUT...

With ADP coming off a catastrophic knee injury AND the backup RB being a plodding Toby Gerhart, there are no really dynamic touches going to RB's either. ADP CAN'T be a run-and-cut-hard speed back, no matter how much he needs to be on any given play. A recently reconstructed knee with both ligaments blown simply won't allow that level of dynamism. He HAS to be a straight ahead back this year, or he's asking for a short career.

That doesn't mean ADP will suck. What it does mean is every one of the touches at RB where the Vikes need to make something a little more glitzy and glamourous happen are going to drop in Harvin's lap. On good weeks last year, he got up to 5 touches as a RB. I fully expect him to AVERAGE that this year, on top of the nearly-league-leading reception numbers.

People everywhere are seeing him as a potentially undervalued player.

Nobody anywhere, that I've seen, is stressing this case enough. I think he ends the season with 50 more touches than the nearest wideout competition. Draft Harvin, and you're getting 2009 Wes Welker, with a bonus side dish of 2009 Kevin Faulk thrown in absolutely free...but with a better nose for the end zone than either.

I project him as my WR 2 by year's end, and see his numbers as safer bets than any other WR out there, simply because his touches are so unbelievably guaranteed. A criminal value anywhere from the third round on. Get him in the fourth, and he's the sort of difference maker that unbalances leagues.

Just go get him.

 

[BigDave]

My rankings:

1 C.Johnson

2 Fitz-QB scares me but he proved last year it doesn't matter

7 A.Johnson-Inuries and running game scare me.

4 J.Jones-looks to be the real deal

6 Welker-In PPR yes, redraft slightly lower

10 Green-not sold on Dalton

3 Jennings-Dude is a STUD. Concussion issue???

5 White-consistent

9 Cruz-can he repeat long tds?

8 Nicks-healed he's a better target than Cruz in the red zone

11 Nelson- a lot of production when Jennings was out

16 Marshall-Not sold here. too many relive the magic expectations

14 Wallace-plz end the holdout

18 Bryant-Dallas O line scares me

17 D.Thomas-Decker???

12 S.Smith

15 Colston-consistent

13 Harvin-With AP back slowly, he's going to get the ball alot

19 Austin-see Bryant

23 V.Jackson

20 Maclin

21 Bowe

22 D.Jackson

24 Lloyd

 

[Abraham]

Nice Nalysis.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

It's been much-ballyhooed...but not nearly ballyhooed enough...that last year, after Ponder took over the reins at QB, Percy Harvin led the entire NFL in touches by a WR. If I recall correctly, it was 100 touches from that point, whereas #2 in the league had 74.Heading into this year, Ponder will have had a full offseason to settle into the starting role. And the rest of the Vikes' receiving options are putrid almost beyond comprehension. This can be a bad thing if you're a Randy Moss in Oakland type, where no other options means you get blanketed and shut out all year. Or it can be a good thing if you're Wes Welker in a revamping 2009 New England offense with no other options, and you're the underneath default passing option.Harvin's situation is a lot more like Welker's. BUT...With ADP coming off a catastrophic knee injury AND the backup RB being a plodding Toby Gerhart, there are no really dynamic touches going to RB's either. ADP CAN'T be a run-and-cut-hard speed back, no matter how much he needs to be on any given play. A recently reconstructed knee with both ligaments blown simply won't allow that level of dynamism. He HAS to be a straight ahead back this year, or he's asking for a short career.That doesn't mean ADP will suck. What it does mean is every one of the touches at RB where the Vikes need to make something a little more glitzy and glamourous happen are going to drop in Harvin's lap. On good weeks last year, he got up to 5 touches as a RB. I fully expect him to AVERAGE that this year, on top of the nearly-league-leading reception numbers.People everywhere are seeing him as a potentially undervalued player.Nobody anywhere, that I've seen, is stressing this case enough. I think he ends the season with 50 more touches than the nearest wideout competition. Draft Harvin, and you're getting 2009 Wes Welker, with a bonus side dish of 2009 Kevin Faulk thrown in absolutely free...but with a better nose for the end zone than either.I project him as my WR 2 by year's end, and see his numbers as safer bets than any other WR out there, simply because his touches are so unbelievably guaranteed. A criminal value anywhere from the third round on. Get him in the fourth, and he's the sort of difference maker that unbalances leagues.Just go get him.

Your killing me........................ ssshhh

 

[bulger2holt]

It's been much-ballyhooed...but not nearly ballyhooed enough...that last year, after Ponder took over the reins at QB, Percy Harvin led the entire NFL in touches by a WR. If I recall correctly, it was 100 touches from that point, whereas #2 in the league had 74.Heading into this year, Ponder will have had a full offseason to settle into the starting role. And the rest of the Vikes' receiving options are putrid almost beyond comprehension. This can be a bad thing if you're a Randy Moss in Oakland type, where no other options means you get blanketed and shut out all year. Or it can be a good thing if you're Wes Welker in a revamping 2009 New England offense with no other options, and you're the underneath default passing option.Harvin's situation is a lot more like Welker's. BUT...With ADP coming off a catastrophic knee injury AND the backup RB being a plodding Toby Gerhart, there are no really dynamic touches going to RB's either. ADP CAN'T be a run-and-cut-hard speed back, no matter how much he needs to be on any given play. A recently reconstructed knee with both ligaments blown simply won't allow that level of dynamism. He HAS to be a straight ahead back this year, or he's asking for a short career.That doesn't mean ADP will suck. What it does mean is every one of the touches at RB where the Vikes need to make something a little more glitzy and glamourous happen are going to drop in Harvin's lap. On good weeks last year, he got up to 5 touches as a RB. I fully expect him to AVERAGE that this year, on top of the nearly-league-leading reception numbers.People everywhere are seeing him as a potentially undervalued player.Nobody anywhere, that I've seen, is stressing this case enough. I think he ends the season with 50 more touches than the nearest wideout competition. Draft Harvin, and you're getting 2009 Wes Welker, with a bonus side dish of 2009 Kevin Faulk thrown in absolutely free...but with a better nose for the end zone than either.I project him as my WR 2 by year's end, and see his numbers as safer bets than any other WR out there, simply because his touches are so unbelievably guaranteed. A criminal value anywhere from the third round on. Get him in the fourth, and he's the sort of difference maker that unbalances leagues.Just go get him.

Your killing me........................ ssshhh

No doubt. Guys in my league are subscribers here.

 

[macknova]

These are based on PPR...

TOO HIGH

Andre Johnson at 3: With his injuries, I'd drop him out of the top several receivers. Don't want him in the top 18 picks or so overall.

Welker at 5, would rather get someone with a little more upside. Don't drop him down too far, but if Hernandez is healthy and Lloyd is as advertised, that should be a couple less targets. Still think Brady throws a ton, I'd take him 7-10, so I don't drop him too far, but I'd rather get a guy with less targets to share and more opportunity for TDs.

Wallace at 13: I drop him down to around 25. No way I take him ahead of the guys behind him on this list, or Decker, or Antonio Brown... He still hasn't shown up yet, until he shows up, WR is so deep I can't understand taking a guy who still hasn't shown up yet ahead of the guys behind him.

Dez Bryant at 14: Again, don't trust him to stay healthy or focused. I don't drop him down too much, but I'd rather get someone with less risk.

Vincent Jackson at 20: Do not trust him getting paid, on a new team, too many factors I don't like to go ahead of guys like Decker, or the guys listed behind him.

TOO LOW

Even though I drop all those guys, most of the other ones I only move up incrementally. I move Marshall at the same level as Nicks, ever so slightly ahead of Cruz.

Percy Harvin is a little low at 18. I'd take Harvin over Austin, Colston, Smith, Thomas, Dez, VJax and Wallace. Probably Cruz, too. In my return yards league, he goes even higher.

Maclin is undervalued, too

I'd take Decker and Brown over Wallace, VJax, Bowe and DJax.

 

[shadyridr]

agree on harvin. i got him ranked 7th

 

[jmo87usc]

Just curious as to why Pierre Garcon is not on any top 24 lists. He finished 19th in points in my league last year as a wr2 with curtis painter throwing the ball. I'd have to think as a wr1 and rg3 at qb, his value gets a little bump. Please help me see what I'm missing here.

 

[macknova]

Garcon is another option that can move up. Another example of how deep WR is. I'd take him ahead of Vincent Jackson on that list. I'm a tad worried about everyone else he'll be facing for touches (Moss, Hankerson, Morgan), but Garcon is probably the most talented among them. In a non-PPR league, or a league that values long TDs, he'll have more value.

 

[The Dude]

Just curious as to why Pierre Garcon is not on any top 24 lists. He finished 19th in points in my league last year as a wr2 with curtis painter throwing the ball. I'd have to think as a wr1 and rg3 at qb, his value gets a little bump. Please help me see what I'm missing here.

Jmo, I was simply using MFL ADP since 8-1. While I agree with you - the MFL ADp does not.

 

[jmo87usc]

Just curious as to why Pierre Garcon is not on any top 24 lists. He finished 19th in points in my league last year as a wr2 with curtis painter throwing the ball. I'd have to think as a wr1 and rg3 at qb, his value gets a little bump. Please help me see what I'm missing here.

Jmo, I was simply using MFL ADP since 8-1. While I agree with you - the MFL ADp does not.

Hey Dude, I should have been more clear. Seems like all rankings I've seen beyond this list exclude Garcon from the top 24 as well. I just feel like he could rise above a lot of guys ranked ahead of him. This is a good thread that I will be revisiting. Thanks

 

[We Tigers]

Just curious as to why Pierre Garcon is not on any top 24 lists. He finished 19th in points in my league last year as a wr2 with curtis painter throwing the ball. I'd have to think as a wr1 and rg3 at qb, his value gets a little bump. Please help me see what I'm missing here.

I'm not a fan of his game, but I'm coming around on him given the news that Fred Davis really isn't doing much in camp. I expected Davis to lead Washington in targets/production this year, but RG4 is increasingly looking like the combo to have.Agree on the Harvin chatter above. I have him around #7-10. I also have Maclin and Antonio Brown well ahead of everyone 19 and lower on this list. Stevie Johnson is also just outside this group in ADP, but I feel he's totally comparable with V. Jax, Bowe, and DeSean.

 

[The Dude]

The Harvin stat above is huge - and I have not heard it before - although I have not kicked into full research gear yet.

The stat I would throw out is that while everyone raves about Julio, the Falcons only threw 1 pass to him inside the 10 - compared to Whites 14.

I would notch Jones down a few.

 

[ClownDogs]

This is a prime example of Wayne being undervalued alot. He was WR24 last year in my leagues and that was with me and my 4 year old son tossing him the ball. If you can get Wayne for cheap, I strongly encourage it, gonna be behind alot and he is main target.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So I have been pondering a slightly different view on all the WR player threads. I thought maybe this could be helpful. I will post a current ranking of WR's to discuss.Let's keep the discussion to why you think someone will produce better than the rank - or worse than the rank. Or who is not on the list of 24 that may finish in the top 24. Posts with insight are much better - but all posts are welcome.So using MFL ADP after 8-1:1 C.Johnson2 Fitz...QB issues that never end3 A.Johnson...injuries seem to be a mounting problem here4 J.Jones...can we get 1 double digit TD season before we get too hyper here.5 Welker...15-20 range IMO6 Green...hard to think of him not doing well as the WR1 there.7 Jennings...currently injured, perhaps the 3rd most talented WR on that team. 8 White...solid9 Cruz...seems a bit high10 Nicks...is he injury prone?11 Nelson...getting better by the minute.12 Marshall...Perhaps the best of the bunch after Calvin, certainly top5 consideration.13 Wallace...Prima Donna14 Dryant...Bryant? The sizzle sells15 D.Thomas...you would have thought he racked 1,000 yds last year...not even 700. 16 S.Smith...always a good choice17 Colston...solid18 Harvin...solid in PPR, his headaches bug me.19 Austin...oh loo he pulled up with a hammy again in preseason20 V.Jackson...always high hopes21 Maclin...solid22 Bowe...solid23 D.Jackson...risky but decent value24 Lloyd...solidHopefully this will inspire some constructive thoughts.

 

[simey]

Heading into this year, Ponder will have had a full offseason to settle into the starting role. And the rest of the Vikes' receiving options are putrid almost beyond comprehension. This can be a bad thing if you're a Randy Moss in Oakland type, where no other options means you get blanketed and shut out all year. Or it can be a good thing if you're Wes Welker in a revamping 2009 New England offense with no other options, and you're the underneath default passing option.

I don't think all of the Vikes receiving options are totally putrid. I think Jerome Simpson has the potential to form into a nice option once he returns from suspension, and Rudolph can also be a big help on the receiving end.

 

[chickensoup]

No Stevie Johnson on the list makes me a sad Panda. Especially considering DeSean Jackson is there. Johnson should get another 134 targets at least this year IMO.

 

[roberto83]

I am going all value WR this year.. I am liking Percy Harvin, Titus Young, Reggie Wayne, etc. Loading up on RB and a big time QB first couple rounds

 

[macknova]

The good thing about WR, is if you really like guys like Wayne and Collie and Stevie, you can wait even longer at WR. I see very little reason to take any WR besides Calvin in the first 16 picks or so.

 

[Captain Hook]

GOOD thread - Thanks

(funny not sure if BFred's post had anything to do with it but there have been some good discussions started lately)

The first thing I would ask folks to do is differentiate between

fantasy WR1 - the first twelve WR (assuming twelve team league) - also the first/highest 12 projected/ranked

and

tiers of WR - ie IMO in the first twelve WR are actually Tier 1 (Calvin), Tier 2 (five more projected to be less than one ppg difference) and then the top six from Tier 3 (actually six of the eight so you could just say Tier 3 and the two you don't like as well are the beginning of Tier 4)

I haven't included names because I am not sure that Joe and David want subscriber info used in discussions (that wouldn't be a problem in a subscriber only forum but that's a different discussion)

Next a new list - the top 36 wide receivers by ADP from the FBGPC as listed by Clayton from the "exposed" FBGPC drafts which was just Thursday so more current (thirty six for the leagues that require 3 WR to start and leagues using double flex are going to have a large number of WR started as well)

1) Calvin Johnson

2) Julio Jones

3) Larry Fitzgerald

4) Roddy White

5) Wes Welker

6) A.J. Green

7) Andre Johnson

8) Hakeem Nicks

9) Brandon Marshall

10) Greg Jennings

11) Victor Cruz

12) Jordy Nelson

13) Dez Bryant

14) Percy Harvin

15) Marques Colston

16) Steve Smith

17) Brandon Lloyd

18) Jeremy Maclin

19) Demaryius Thomas

20) Eric Decker

21) Mike Wallace

22) Antonio Brown

23) Dwayne Bowe

24) Steve Johnson

25) Pierre Garcon

26) Miles Austin

27) Vincent Jackson

28) DeSean Jackson

29) Darrius Heyward-Bey

30) Torrey Smith

31) Reggie Wayne

32) Denarius Moore

33) Kenny Britt

34) Titus Young

35) Austin Collie

36) Robert Meachem

 

[Abraham]

I think Marshall finishes top 5 or closer to 20. The combo will either be like old times or it won't. I don't see a middle ground (like a finish of 10 or 12)

 

[The Dude]

I think as of today, I would strongly consider moving AJ Green to the 2 spot. Julio has the smell of too high expectations already and everybody wants to be on the front end of it. Right now, my top 5

Johnson

Green

White

Fitz

Nicks

So obviously looking at Hook's list, my value is Green & Nicks - along with Marshall.

 

[Captain Hook]

Julio - agree that they hype machine is out of control .....OTOH I expect him to finish Top 10 for sure, maybe Top 5

Roddy - but I don't understand why even those who have Julio projected up haven't lowered White - he has to move down (rankings and FF points this year)

Nicks - agree that he is value off where he is being drafted but nothing compared to

Harvin - who I agree with others above expect to be Top 10 for sure, could be Top 5

I disagree with Dodds about the amount that Welker slips this year - he is still a HUGE part of the Patriots system and Tom Terrific will still be throwing to him ......could he go under 100 receptions SURE but I doubt it will be by much IF it happens and he will still get a lot of yards and his share of TDs ............still if you believe in Lloyd over Welker there is huge value with him (I like Lloyd, have for years, he is a very bright guy with good skills .... I just don't see him scoring more FF points than Welker ... .this year

Lastly - for today - am I just one of the few concerned about the concussions with Jennings? I continue to see him drafted as a Top 10 WR often higher ....... I can't see taking him over an equal guy in the tier right now

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Great thread! The Harvin talk is really intriguing. I looked at my league's stats last year and Leo and behold he was 8th! His numbers exploded second half.

Then again though, how many second half monsters can you remember falling flat the next year...

 

[LHUCKS]

So I have been pondering a slightly different view on all the WR player threads. I thought maybe this could be helpful. I will post a current ranking of WR's to discuss.

Let's keep the discussion to why you think someone will produce better than the rank - or worse than the rank. Or who is not on the list of 24 that may finish in the top 24. Posts with insight are much better - but all posts are welcome.

So using MFL ADP after 8-1:

1 C.Johnson

2 Fitz

3 A.Johnson

4 J.Jones

5 Welker

6 Green

7 Jennings

8 White

9 Cruz

10 Nicks

11 Nelson

12 Marshall

13 Wallace

14 Bryant

15 D.Thomas

16 S.Smith

17 Colston

18 Harvin

19 Austin

20 V.Jackson

21 Maclin

22 Bowe

23 D.Jackson

24 Lloyd

Hopefully this will inspire some constructive thoughts.

Overvalued Players IMHO

 

[LHUCKS]

I am going all value WR this year..

correctway too many overrated WRs in the 2-15 range.With RBs dropping like flies, it's the year to go RB early.

 

[LHUCKS]

So using MFL ADP after 8-1:

1 C.Johnson

2 Fitz

3 A.Johnson

4 J.Jones

5 Welker

6 Green

7 Jennings

8 White

9 Cruz

10 Nicks

11 Nelson

12 Marshall

13 Wallace

14 Dryant

15 D.Thomas

16 S.Smith

17 Colston

18 Harvin

19 Austin

20 V.Jackson

21 Maclin

22 Bowe

23 D.Jackson

24 Lloyd

These are the value plays per my initial review.

 

[SoBeDad]

The Harvin stat above is huge - and I have not heard it before - although I have not kicked into full research gear yet.The stat I would throw out is that while everyone raves about Julio, the Falcons only threw 1 pass to him inside the 10 - compared to Whites 14.I would notch Jones down a few.

That's one of the reasons Julio should be ranked high. With his size, there's no way they don't use him more inside the 10 this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

The Harvin stat above is huge - and I have not heard it before - although I have not kicked into full research gear yet.The stat I would throw out is that while everyone raves about Julio, the Falcons only threw 1 pass to him inside the 10 - compared to Whites 14.I would notch Jones down a few.

That's one of the reasons Julio should be ranked high. With his size, there's no way they don't use him more inside the 10 this year.

Julio is about right. His upside is obvious, but his offense coupled with Roddy/Gonzo limits him from attaining crazy stats IMHO.