Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Arguing over the early 3-4 rounds I find to be a waste of time these days. Inevitably you are stepping on dynasty toes and then something never discussed is the fact even though you might feel Player A in the 1st round is a bust, he's going in the 1st round because a certain % of owners believe in that guy hence the 1st round ADP.
I find however once you drift past the first 2-3 rounds that most owners start to become a little more open minded about who they want or are willing to take hence the reason so many busts and reaches start to kick in about round 5 when the blue chip draftees are drying up.
So I thought rather than debate endlessly on some of the bigger names that we could analyze the guys in these round 5-10 or higher. I'm convinced it typically is not the gem in the 1st or 2nd that makes winning the leagues easier but it's the surprise guy. Kurt Warner in '99, Josh Gordon in '13, and all the ones between A and B there. I am going to gloss over QBs available because in most mocks I see about 17 QBs I can live with and my only plan is should I wait and be the 12th team to take a QB, typically I am the 1st or 2nd to grab a QB2 and many of you are the same. TE is fairly deep after you whiff on Graham and maybe 1-2 others. So the focus here is going to be WR and RB fyi, heavy emphasis on WRs who many are looking at as WR2/3/4 types.
So here goes one completely incoherent thread devoted to what I feel is the potatoes to accompany the meat from your 1st 3-4 picks. There are a lot of players I do not like or are not that interested in once we hit about round 5 and I'll go over most of the players available in these rounds. As always i will use the ADP on FBG which you can access for free right now I think.
I will list the ADP 1st, then the player, then the number at that position off the board. You'll understand as we roll along here.
5th-6th
WR
49-Roddy White 21
50-DeSean Jackson 22
59-Michael Floyd 23
63-TY Hilton 24
64-Torrey Smith 25
70-Jeremy Maclin 26
72-Julian Edleman 27
73-Mike Wallace 28
These 8 WRs are most likely to be taken right now in PPR in the early 5th to late 6th, these are the WRs who you will need to make an evaluation on. I am going to rank them in the order I prefer and talk about them a little bit, then I'll mention the RBs you will need to either pass on or possibly select over one of these guys. Also I think it worth noting that these 4 WRs go right before White and are worth mentioning for reference, these include 42-Crabtree 17, 45-Harvin 18, 47-Welker 19, 48-C.Patterson 20.
I would rank these 8 WRs in the following order.
1-Roddy White: He makes an interesting find at this point in the draft. White from 2010-2012 avg 102/1,350/8TDs...he was hurt last year and seemed like he missed the whole season. He tried to play hurt because he is a professional and a warrior. When he finally did come back 100% from the injury he put up reception totals in 4 of the last 5 games...10/143, 8/74, 12/140/TD, 8/91/TD...you are either blind or really obtuse to not see this. I understand he turns 33 in November but Atlanta is going to be better on defense, will be on the field more this year on offense, their running game is so so right now, but it's bombs away with Jones and White, no stud TE this year. I think White is free money at the 5.1 and I would scoop him up in every league at that price. Terrible 2013 makes for a nice bargain in 2014.
2-Michael Floyd: Hardly anyone in my local leagues seems to know who the guy is. 1,000+ receiving yards last year but seems like he did not get a lot of press and I have to think there is room for improvement here. Also has a nice WR opposite him to draw coverage away, year 3, if he takes another step forward he will be top 15. As the 23rd WR off the board I like his upside. He definitely is a slight leap but his numbers improved upon a decent rookie season, he looks like the goods even if he is not a top5 type prospect.
3-DeSean Jackson: I like him a lot but I also know how difficult it is to get timing down year 1 with a new QB who already like Garcon a lot and might look at him 1st since he is familiar with him. jackson is going to stretch the field and were I to guess you will end up with some big big weeks and potentially some real bagels. Some defenses are going to make him the guy they want to shut down, others will realize they can't leave Garcon free to roam around either. Skins are quickly becoming my dark horse for the NFC East, I expect Jackson to be a solid WR3 with some WR2 upside.
4-Julian Edleman: I don't really like him but the Pats are going to roll with him being a decent chunk of the offense. 100+ receptions again is not out of the question but healthy Gronk and Vereen should lower him just a bit. Of course a typical injury on this offense and suddenly he is catching 100 balls again. Brady and BB don't care who catches it or if it's pretty, they just want to move the sticks. He's a decent option if you didn't grab WRs early in the 1st few rounds but I would not want this guy trying to fill my WR1 role on the team. Most are not drafting him for those reasons but I also feel like folks feel they are getting Welker 2009/10 here. Not sure that is the case.
5-TY Hilton: I like him plenty but there is a ceiling to his production. He was the only healthy WR it seemed the 2nd half of the season, he was good but nothing shocking. I like him in best ball more than having to wheel him out every week as a potential WR2.
6-Torrey Smith: 68/1128, that is what most owners would like but he only managed 4 TDs or half of his production from 2012. he's solid but not sexy. If you just need a steady 10-15 a week. He typically has a nice week about once every 3-4 games, he also will have bad gam in the bunch and 2 other games where he shows up but nothing special. He is not going to win many games for FF owners.
7-Jeremy Maclin: I understand he is back form injury, playing the WR1 role here, but what I have seen so far in the NFL is just an average NFL WR. I don't see Maclin being a dominate WR in this league. I rarely say this but I am more optimistic about the rookie Mathews halfway thru the season than I am hitching my wagon to Maclin. I personally will not be drafting him but I am sure some find him appealing.
8-Mike Wallace: Injuries are keeping him out in camp while Javon Landry is making everyone turn their heads. Wallace need to get his timing down with THill, form what I have been reading they still miss an awful lot on the long ball. I like Wallace at a point in the draft, late 6th/early 7th is not bad but I also am not sure much has changed since last season for him.
List of RBs who are likely to be drafted around here.
Shane Vereen
Chris Johnson
Ben Tate
TRich
Gore
R.Jennings
Ray Rice
J.Bell
S.Ridley
From that list I would seriously consider Johnson and Rice, Ridley probably 3rd on that list but that's me. I would take White before the RBs but after that I feel i can find other WRs in the next 304 rounds where I would not lose a lot from the likes of say TY Hilton or Torrey Smith, just no reason to reach for those guys. RBs unfortunately start to fall off a cliff faster IMO. So it's not just taking that WR in the 5th but also the RBs you lose out on and what choices that brings in the next few rounds.
I feel like you have to evaluate the group as a whole. Find your comfort level and it makes the draft a lot smoother when i have a good idea who i am looking for. I also am not afraid after about the 3rd round to start getting ahead of the runs and I will grab guys a round or two earlier than their ADP. You can use the ADP to your advantage if you are not afraid to pull the trigger. No one scolded anyone for taking Antonio Brown in the 6th last season instead of the 7th at the end of last year. If you have done your homework and you feel comfortable with your own evaluations, then for goodness sake don't allow what some internet web sites or even mags tell you when you should select a player.
7th-8th
76-Emmanuel Sanders 29
77-K.Wright 30
79 M.Colston 31
81-Sammy Watkins 32
83-Eric Decker 33
86-Terrence Williams 34
88-Golden Tate 35
95-Reggie Wayne 36
Interesting group of receivers and I would rank them a little different than their ADP, also feel a couple of these guys are being slightly overlooked. If you waited at WR for whatever reason and are looking at guys in the 30-35 range for your WR2/3 slots then this group is important to you. I see a couple WRs in here that have a lot of upside and others that look like a reach or recipe for possible disaster.
1. Terrance Williams: Hear me out. Good solid rookie year, pushed an oft injured vet WR out the door, 44/750/5TD. Here is the big reasons I like him this year...the offense is going to need to score 35 a week minimum. That defense was bottom barrel last season and they lost Ware, Lee(injury again), the rookie is out, Claiborne is hurt, they are catching the injury bug early on a team that was thin to begin with. Other side however the offense has what is being projected as a top 5 OL with sturdy tackles to set up the passing game. All the balls can't go to Dez and the WR3/4 slots on this team are lacking right now. i think Williams can easily post up 1,000/8TD in this offense and also seeing the easier of the coverage, he should be open a lot. I liked him coming out of college more than most, good offense, he will catch a lot of balls.
2. Marques Colston: before last season I always defended this guy and still enjoy attaching him play but the reality is he misses a lot of games. He has missed 22 starts in 4 seasons, or about 4-5 games a year, some better than others. He can hit 1,000-1,100 but not much more it seems with the injuries. I have always been a fan but the upside is not there. Now if you were the guy that took Dez/Marshall in the 1st/2nd, it's the middle of the 7th and you need a solid option for WR3 most weeks, take Colston and you'll be fine with another solid option at WR4. But if you went Graham or QB early and then loaded up at RB and for some reason only have 1 or even 2 WRs but nothing dominant, I might pass on Colston and look for another one of these guys for some upside and then take another steady guy later like Boldin you can find in the 10th/11th and probably get similar numbers.
3. Emmanuel Sanders: I put him here simply due to the QB and offense. He could easily catch 65-70 balls in this offense. he seems focused, had a solid camp, but there is risk and he doesn't have the solid track history of many around him but you cannot deny the pop there. What if Welker gets hurt for a few weeks? Sanders has a lot of value but I would like him better in best ball, also feel he is best as part of a combo at WR3/4 so if you take Sanders I would also think about another WR in the 1-2 rounds to platoon with him since we don't really know what he will do just yet.
4. Kendall Wright: I'm just not excited about a guy who is roughly just 10 yards a catch. he must catch a lot of balls to make any headway and i also feel Justin hunter will at some point surpass him as option 1. I'm not real high on the guy and don't want to argue about it, if you like him more than I do then great. Out of respect for his 2013, i rank him here, but reality is I would not draft him around here.
5. Golden Tate: I like him but understand he is not Option 1 or really Option 2. I feel like Calvin and the RBs are the first options. I expect Tate to look good and I also would like to draft him in a few leagues but I think he is best as a WR3/4 type. Best Ball make me like him better or even a lot more as I feel his 5-6 big games will be hard to predict. But I like him and i like the Lions' offense.
6. Reggie Wayne: Old, torn ACL last year, will be back in the cuts, will be decent value for some, I just am not eager to draft him but you could do worse at WR3 in the late 8th round. I'm rooting for him.
7. Eric Decker: Not 1 NY jets WR has amassed 1,000 yards under Rex Ryan, pass for me.
8. Sammy Watkins: I don't do many rookies and last night's preseason game only re-enforces some of the reasons I downgraded Watkins to being with. Let someone else enjoy this headache every week about whether to play him or not. Forge dynasty, REDRAFT 2014 i just don't see it yet.
Here is a list of the RBs who get routinely drafted in here.
Steven Jackson
Pierre Thomas
MJD
Lamar Miller
Moreno...he is falling like a rock
Sproles
Woodhead
Of these guys I am intrigued with Miller but I expect him to rise into the 5th-6th range soon and other guys to drift down into this range.
9th-10th
99-Mike Evans 37
102-D.Bowe 38
104-R.Cooper 39
108-Brandin Cooks 40
109-D.Hopkins 41
111-T.Austin 42
113-H.Nicks 43
115-Cecil Shorts the 3rd 44
120 A.Boldin 45
I am going to turn this last set over the board. The 9th-10th round you have guys who have impressive resumes like a Dwayne Bowe but has not produced well as of late, you have hot rookies like Cooks who is tearing camp up but will NO throw to him when the season starts? Can H.Nicks get enough targets in Indy to be relevant again in FF? Will owners continue to ignore Anquan Boldin despite the fact he will never leave the field on offense IMO BECAUSE BECAUSE BECAUSE he blocks in the run game like a MoFo. I know SF has loaded up with new receivers and weapons but they still love to run the ball behind this OL and Boldin might not be sexy but I imagine he will continue to produce despite many owners wanting him not to.
Hopkins in that offense with those QBs? Cooper repeat his numbers? Why is Austin in this group, seems more like a flyer type as Britt is winning the camp reports.
What have you got to say? Thanks for your help.
I find however once you drift past the first 2-3 rounds that most owners start to become a little more open minded about who they want or are willing to take hence the reason so many busts and reaches start to kick in about round 5 when the blue chip draftees are drying up.
So I thought rather than debate endlessly on some of the bigger names that we could analyze the guys in these round 5-10 or higher. I'm convinced it typically is not the gem in the 1st or 2nd that makes winning the leagues easier but it's the surprise guy. Kurt Warner in '99, Josh Gordon in '13, and all the ones between A and B there. I am going to gloss over QBs available because in most mocks I see about 17 QBs I can live with and my only plan is should I wait and be the 12th team to take a QB, typically I am the 1st or 2nd to grab a QB2 and many of you are the same. TE is fairly deep after you whiff on Graham and maybe 1-2 others. So the focus here is going to be WR and RB fyi, heavy emphasis on WRs who many are looking at as WR2/3/4 types.
So here goes one completely incoherent thread devoted to what I feel is the potatoes to accompany the meat from your 1st 3-4 picks. There are a lot of players I do not like or are not that interested in once we hit about round 5 and I'll go over most of the players available in these rounds. As always i will use the ADP on FBG which you can access for free right now I think.
I will list the ADP 1st, then the player, then the number at that position off the board. You'll understand as we roll along here.
5th-6th
WR
49-Roddy White 21
50-DeSean Jackson 22
59-Michael Floyd 23
63-TY Hilton 24
64-Torrey Smith 25
70-Jeremy Maclin 26
72-Julian Edleman 27
73-Mike Wallace 28
These 8 WRs are most likely to be taken right now in PPR in the early 5th to late 6th, these are the WRs who you will need to make an evaluation on. I am going to rank them in the order I prefer and talk about them a little bit, then I'll mention the RBs you will need to either pass on or possibly select over one of these guys. Also I think it worth noting that these 4 WRs go right before White and are worth mentioning for reference, these include 42-Crabtree 17, 45-Harvin 18, 47-Welker 19, 48-C.Patterson 20.
I would rank these 8 WRs in the following order.
1-Roddy White: He makes an interesting find at this point in the draft. White from 2010-2012 avg 102/1,350/8TDs...he was hurt last year and seemed like he missed the whole season. He tried to play hurt because he is a professional and a warrior. When he finally did come back 100% from the injury he put up reception totals in 4 of the last 5 games...10/143, 8/74, 12/140/TD, 8/91/TD...you are either blind or really obtuse to not see this. I understand he turns 33 in November but Atlanta is going to be better on defense, will be on the field more this year on offense, their running game is so so right now, but it's bombs away with Jones and White, no stud TE this year. I think White is free money at the 5.1 and I would scoop him up in every league at that price. Terrible 2013 makes for a nice bargain in 2014.
2-Michael Floyd: Hardly anyone in my local leagues seems to know who the guy is. 1,000+ receiving yards last year but seems like he did not get a lot of press and I have to think there is room for improvement here. Also has a nice WR opposite him to draw coverage away, year 3, if he takes another step forward he will be top 15. As the 23rd WR off the board I like his upside. He definitely is a slight leap but his numbers improved upon a decent rookie season, he looks like the goods even if he is not a top5 type prospect.
3-DeSean Jackson: I like him a lot but I also know how difficult it is to get timing down year 1 with a new QB who already like Garcon a lot and might look at him 1st since he is familiar with him. jackson is going to stretch the field and were I to guess you will end up with some big big weeks and potentially some real bagels. Some defenses are going to make him the guy they want to shut down, others will realize they can't leave Garcon free to roam around either. Skins are quickly becoming my dark horse for the NFC East, I expect Jackson to be a solid WR3 with some WR2 upside.
4-Julian Edleman: I don't really like him but the Pats are going to roll with him being a decent chunk of the offense. 100+ receptions again is not out of the question but healthy Gronk and Vereen should lower him just a bit. Of course a typical injury on this offense and suddenly he is catching 100 balls again. Brady and BB don't care who catches it or if it's pretty, they just want to move the sticks. He's a decent option if you didn't grab WRs early in the 1st few rounds but I would not want this guy trying to fill my WR1 role on the team. Most are not drafting him for those reasons but I also feel like folks feel they are getting Welker 2009/10 here. Not sure that is the case.
5-TY Hilton: I like him plenty but there is a ceiling to his production. He was the only healthy WR it seemed the 2nd half of the season, he was good but nothing shocking. I like him in best ball more than having to wheel him out every week as a potential WR2.
6-Torrey Smith: 68/1128, that is what most owners would like but he only managed 4 TDs or half of his production from 2012. he's solid but not sexy. If you just need a steady 10-15 a week. He typically has a nice week about once every 3-4 games, he also will have bad gam in the bunch and 2 other games where he shows up but nothing special. He is not going to win many games for FF owners.
7-Jeremy Maclin: I understand he is back form injury, playing the WR1 role here, but what I have seen so far in the NFL is just an average NFL WR. I don't see Maclin being a dominate WR in this league. I rarely say this but I am more optimistic about the rookie Mathews halfway thru the season than I am hitching my wagon to Maclin. I personally will not be drafting him but I am sure some find him appealing.
8-Mike Wallace: Injuries are keeping him out in camp while Javon Landry is making everyone turn their heads. Wallace need to get his timing down with THill, form what I have been reading they still miss an awful lot on the long ball. I like Wallace at a point in the draft, late 6th/early 7th is not bad but I also am not sure much has changed since last season for him.
List of RBs who are likely to be drafted around here.
Shane Vereen
Chris Johnson
Ben Tate
TRich
Gore
R.Jennings
Ray Rice
J.Bell
S.Ridley
From that list I would seriously consider Johnson and Rice, Ridley probably 3rd on that list but that's me. I would take White before the RBs but after that I feel i can find other WRs in the next 304 rounds where I would not lose a lot from the likes of say TY Hilton or Torrey Smith, just no reason to reach for those guys. RBs unfortunately start to fall off a cliff faster IMO. So it's not just taking that WR in the 5th but also the RBs you lose out on and what choices that brings in the next few rounds.
I feel like you have to evaluate the group as a whole. Find your comfort level and it makes the draft a lot smoother when i have a good idea who i am looking for. I also am not afraid after about the 3rd round to start getting ahead of the runs and I will grab guys a round or two earlier than their ADP. You can use the ADP to your advantage if you are not afraid to pull the trigger. No one scolded anyone for taking Antonio Brown in the 6th last season instead of the 7th at the end of last year. If you have done your homework and you feel comfortable with your own evaluations, then for goodness sake don't allow what some internet web sites or even mags tell you when you should select a player.
7th-8th
76-Emmanuel Sanders 29
77-K.Wright 30
79 M.Colston 31
81-Sammy Watkins 32
83-Eric Decker 33
86-Terrence Williams 34
88-Golden Tate 35
95-Reggie Wayne 36
Interesting group of receivers and I would rank them a little different than their ADP, also feel a couple of these guys are being slightly overlooked. If you waited at WR for whatever reason and are looking at guys in the 30-35 range for your WR2/3 slots then this group is important to you. I see a couple WRs in here that have a lot of upside and others that look like a reach or recipe for possible disaster.
1. Terrance Williams: Hear me out. Good solid rookie year, pushed an oft injured vet WR out the door, 44/750/5TD. Here is the big reasons I like him this year...the offense is going to need to score 35 a week minimum. That defense was bottom barrel last season and they lost Ware, Lee(injury again), the rookie is out, Claiborne is hurt, they are catching the injury bug early on a team that was thin to begin with. Other side however the offense has what is being projected as a top 5 OL with sturdy tackles to set up the passing game. All the balls can't go to Dez and the WR3/4 slots on this team are lacking right now. i think Williams can easily post up 1,000/8TD in this offense and also seeing the easier of the coverage, he should be open a lot. I liked him coming out of college more than most, good offense, he will catch a lot of balls.
2. Marques Colston: before last season I always defended this guy and still enjoy attaching him play but the reality is he misses a lot of games. He has missed 22 starts in 4 seasons, or about 4-5 games a year, some better than others. He can hit 1,000-1,100 but not much more it seems with the injuries. I have always been a fan but the upside is not there. Now if you were the guy that took Dez/Marshall in the 1st/2nd, it's the middle of the 7th and you need a solid option for WR3 most weeks, take Colston and you'll be fine with another solid option at WR4. But if you went Graham or QB early and then loaded up at RB and for some reason only have 1 or even 2 WRs but nothing dominant, I might pass on Colston and look for another one of these guys for some upside and then take another steady guy later like Boldin you can find in the 10th/11th and probably get similar numbers.
3. Emmanuel Sanders: I put him here simply due to the QB and offense. He could easily catch 65-70 balls in this offense. he seems focused, had a solid camp, but there is risk and he doesn't have the solid track history of many around him but you cannot deny the pop there. What if Welker gets hurt for a few weeks? Sanders has a lot of value but I would like him better in best ball, also feel he is best as part of a combo at WR3/4 so if you take Sanders I would also think about another WR in the 1-2 rounds to platoon with him since we don't really know what he will do just yet.
4. Kendall Wright: I'm just not excited about a guy who is roughly just 10 yards a catch. he must catch a lot of balls to make any headway and i also feel Justin hunter will at some point surpass him as option 1. I'm not real high on the guy and don't want to argue about it, if you like him more than I do then great. Out of respect for his 2013, i rank him here, but reality is I would not draft him around here.
5. Golden Tate: I like him but understand he is not Option 1 or really Option 2. I feel like Calvin and the RBs are the first options. I expect Tate to look good and I also would like to draft him in a few leagues but I think he is best as a WR3/4 type. Best Ball make me like him better or even a lot more as I feel his 5-6 big games will be hard to predict. But I like him and i like the Lions' offense.
6. Reggie Wayne: Old, torn ACL last year, will be back in the cuts, will be decent value for some, I just am not eager to draft him but you could do worse at WR3 in the late 8th round. I'm rooting for him.
7. Eric Decker: Not 1 NY jets WR has amassed 1,000 yards under Rex Ryan, pass for me.
8. Sammy Watkins: I don't do many rookies and last night's preseason game only re-enforces some of the reasons I downgraded Watkins to being with. Let someone else enjoy this headache every week about whether to play him or not. Forge dynasty, REDRAFT 2014 i just don't see it yet.
Here is a list of the RBs who get routinely drafted in here.
Steven Jackson
Pierre Thomas
MJD
Lamar Miller
Moreno...he is falling like a rock
Sproles
Woodhead
Of these guys I am intrigued with Miller but I expect him to rise into the 5th-6th range soon and other guys to drift down into this range.
9th-10th
99-Mike Evans 37
102-D.Bowe 38
104-R.Cooper 39
108-Brandin Cooks 40
109-D.Hopkins 41
111-T.Austin 42
113-H.Nicks 43
115-Cecil Shorts the 3rd 44
120 A.Boldin 45
I am going to turn this last set over the board. The 9th-10th round you have guys who have impressive resumes like a Dwayne Bowe but has not produced well as of late, you have hot rookies like Cooks who is tearing camp up but will NO throw to him when the season starts? Can H.Nicks get enough targets in Indy to be relevant again in FF? Will owners continue to ignore Anquan Boldin despite the fact he will never leave the field on offense IMO BECAUSE BECAUSE BECAUSE he blocks in the run game like a MoFo. I know SF has loaded up with new receivers and weapons but they still love to run the ball behind this OL and Boldin might not be sexy but I imagine he will continue to produce despite many owners wanting him not to.
Hopkins in that offense with those QBs? Cooper repeat his numbers? Why is Austin in this group, seems more like a flyer type as Britt is winning the camp reports.
What have you got to say? Thanks for your help.
