Let's stipulate that unbeaten Michigan defeats 10-2 Wisconsin for the Big Ten championship; that Penn State and Ohio State finish 10-2; and that Nebraska, with a loss to Ohio State this week, finishes 10-2 as well.
Michigan heads to the College Football Playoff, leaving the Rose Bowl to choose a Big Ten replacement. Here's how the conference defines the Rose Bowl selection procedures in that case.
"Rose Bowl Game has sole discretion on replacement team, and will generally select highest-rated available team," according to the Big Ten, "but will take into consideration final College Football Playoff rankings, head-to-head competition, division champions and most recent Rose Bowl Game appearances."
Based on the current CFP rankings, the Rose Bowl would be expected to consider Ohio State (No. 6), Wisconsin (No. 8) or Nebraska (No. 10) before Penn State. But two criteria favor Penn State.
The Lions have a win over Ohio State, which has beaten Wisconsin and plays Nebraska on Saturday. In choosing between Penn State and Ohio State, the Rose Bowl could make that head-to-head game a deciding factor.
In a decision between Penn State and Wisconsin, the Badgers could point to their West Division title. But the committee also might remember that Wisconsin played in three consecutive Rose Bowls from 2011-13, losing all three.
Penn State hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in eight years (Nebraska not since 2002). How important is getting a new face to Pasadena? The decision will be more complicated than merely selecting the highest-ranked team available.
Should Penn State finish 10-2, Athletic Director Sandy Barbour could deliver a compelling PowerPoint to the Rose Bowl committee. Penn State would bring an eight-game win streak, one of the nation's most exciting players in Saquon Barkley and a ticket-buying fan base thrilled at the team's unexpected revival.
As outlandish as that might have sounded in September, it's not a reach anymore. At 10-2, Penn State is a viable candidate for one of the New Year's Bowls. Even the Rose.