Let's talk playoff league strategy (1 Viewer)

[Zow]

Let's start some discussions on draft strategy for this years playoffs leagues. For those unfamiliar, generally leagues are limited to a few teams (4-10) and you win by accruing the most points with all your guys by the end of the playoff season with the league winner being the one with the most points. Ill toss out my league's rules as an example: 19 round draft, must roster at least 2 QBS, 1 WR, 1WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 DST before drafting other positions - remaining RBs, TEs, WRs with traditional fantasy scoring rules.

For a list of player rankings, Sigmund Bloom did a nice breakdown in his subscriber section. That said, general player strategy is to draft both the best guys and guys that will be able to play in the most games. For example then, I believe Peterson is the best player but may not even rank in the top ten because guys like Brady, Ridley, Moreno, etc. will play more games. My strategy here is usually to try to target 1st round teams with a good chance to play 2 or more games. My choices under this strategy for this year are to grab teams from each conference who I think could make it far - my choices being Green Bay and Houston (who, not coincidentally, have some great fantasy performers on their teams. Accordingly, Rodgers is my top choice with Foster listed as my first RB off the board.

That said, I want to talk about two accepted but competing strategies: cornering the market v. diversification. Regarding the former, the general idea there is to draft guys from multiple positions from the same team(s) you think will go the farthest. This is the strategy Bloom recommends and the move there is to tailor your draft to match players in round: e.g. 1st round Brady, 2nd round Ridley, 3rd round Hernandez and so forth. If you can't completely corner teams then you take guys from just a couple teams: so go Foster. AJ, Wilson, Tate, Seatte D, etc.

However, the natural cut against that is (while I agree the above strategy gives you the best chance to win) you are effectively doing two things: 1) overvaluing certain players and 2) banking hard on teams to advance. Accordingly, it may be a more conservative strategy to try to diversify and simply take the "best" available guy at each pick regardless of how they match up to the rest of your lineup. Here, you could start with a draft like Rodgers, Foster, Peterson, Crabtree and have a ton of pure point guarantee.

Thoughts?

 

[Zow]

For the sake of discussion, odds from Vegas yesterday for Super Bowl win:

NE 2/1

Den 7/2

GB 4/1

Atl: 8/1

SF 10/1

Hou: 18/1

Sea 20/1

Min: 40/1

Cinci 80/1

Bal 18/1

Indy 80/1

 

[Zow]

My "value" guys:

1. Rodgers

2. Foster

3. Welker

4. Jordy

5. Finley

6. Matt Ryan (I think he'll slip)

Additionally, I like the odds of the Was/Sea winner upsetting Atlanta, but I just dpon't know which team will win there. I could see grabbing a Lynch/Morris combo and doing well with that.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I like the discussion. Though where have you seen Bloom's piece yet - it isn't posted as of 4pm CST. You posted 35 minutes ago.

 

[CentralPA]

It's there. Last link for Tuesday Morning.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

It's there. Last link for Tuesday Morning.

Thanks - yes very good article. I would like to see an ADP at myfantasyleague but no luck - just looked. There have been 4 real drafts since Dec. 28th and they aren't playoff exclusive, so no go there.

 

[CentralPA]

My "value" guys:1. Rodgers2. Foster3. Welker4. Jordy5. Finley6. Matt Ryan (I think he'll slip)Additionally, I like the odds of the Was/Sea winner upsetting Atlanta, but I just dpon't know which team will win there. I could see grabbing a Lynch/Morris combo and doing well with that.

I'm thinking a Denver vs Sea/gb super bowl. If I can nab Rodgers I'll be very happy. Then try to grab Lynch or Moreno.

 

[Zow]

My "value" guys:1. Rodgers2. Foster3. Welker4. Jordy5. Finley6. Matt Ryan (I think he'll slip)Additionally, I like the odds of the Was/Sea winner upsetting Atlanta, but I just dpon't know which team will win there. I could see grabbing a Lynch/Morris combo and doing well with that.

I'm thinking a Denver vs Sea/gb super bowl. If I can nab Rodgers I'll be very happy. Then try to grab Lynch or Moreno.

I find it hard to count out NE, I think it's either NE or Denver with the other 4 AFC teams with little chance (save a distant chance for Houston if their defense steps up a game).NFC to me is the tougher choice with arguments being made for ALL teams - even Minnesota, who can run and play defense.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Good thread.

I'm in a money playoff league this year for the first time after dabbling a bit in NFL.com's free challenge for a few yrs.

What I've learned is that bye week teams are overvalued in commulative allplay stats. You need some balance on your team in the first week. I look for a 2 week baseline. If I get 2 weeks of stats I'm happy. 3 week players are SB teams, and it's still very risky to predict which team goes to the SB regardless of the Vegas odds and media hype. Even Denver and NE aren't locks but I think they are locks to play in 2 games. That's the baseline you are looking for. Just 2 games, and go from there.

There's nobody I feel confident about safely hitting the 2 game baseline in the NFC, although there are still some strong favorites in SF in ATL to at least get to the NFC Championship. You gotta like the Packers as 2 game stat compilers too, as well as Houston and I think Baltimore facing a rookie QB in his first playoff game.

I don't subscribe to choosing all my players from 2 or 3 teams like mentioned before, but rather which players are from the 2 game baseline. Accordingly, I'll try to draft players from the following teams: DEN, NE, ATL, SF, HOU, GB, BAL and avoid teams like MIN, WAS, SEA, IND, CIN. Then use VBD at each position attempting to spread the wealth accross those 7 teams. I like both Seattle and Washington but a road game and 2 rookie QB's make this too tough to call. I'm staying away unless the value drops. I'm higher than most on Atlanta, and think the home field advantage throughout the playoffs will get them the SB. In the AFC, I'm liking the Pats to go. So I'm targeting Brady/Ryan and Ridley/Turner and Roddy/Welker as my respective QB1's, RB1's and WR1's. I'd love to get Gronk but will gladly settle for Gonzo as my TE1.

 

[Pipes]

Don't overlook Peterson here as his one game, if you truly think they will lose, could still easily be 200 yards and a couple of tds...still likely to out produce just about every RB out there.

 

[Zow]

Don't overlook Peterson here as his one game, if you truly think they will lose, could still easily be 200 yards and a couple of tds...still likely to out produce just about every RB out there.

Agreed... I just had my draft and, being a Vikes fan, it was incredibly tough to pass over him in the second. I took Peyton in round one, strongly considered Peterson, but went Moreno instead to get the core battery of the team which is a top favorite to win the SB.

 

[Zow]

Also, my first 8 picks were either Patriots or Broncos, and 9 and 10 were Packers, followed by three straight from Seattle.

Never employed this strategy but we'll see how it goes.

 

[NYRAGE]

I've won by both methods: loading up on one team and by diversification. My league is different because we keep three players from our regular season roster. That kind of shapes up your strategy. I try to get the best available players and then load up the scrubs from one or two teams. In earlier years, most people tried to load up on specific teams, but with keepers, it's pretty spread out. Like already mentioned, the key to me is trying to find those first round teams that could advance far. This year I like Seattle. In the AFC though, it will probably come down to Denver vs NE. Also, we do a mixture of offensive and defensive players with no specific position requirements. That changes things a bit, too.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

If I can nab Rodgers I'll be very happy. Then try to grab Lynch or Moreno.

Rodgers/Lynch would be great if both teams won this week.Rodgers/Rice also since Balt is a bigger favorite than Seat.

 

[Zow]

Rodgers went first in my league, followed by Brady and Manning. I think those are the clear top three guys and, after thinking about it for a few days, it seems like solid strategy to pair these guys with their respective position players then try to draft some long shots. I think this is the way to go, especially if you're in a league with 6-10 teams. Accordingly, you could draft Manning/Moreno/Decker or Brady/Ridley/Hernandez in the first three rounds then cherry pick value 3-6 seeded guys like Reggie Wayne/AJ Green if you think those teams could advance or Schaub as a QB2 if available to try to get some premium scoring early and coast to a win if your core top team makes it.

It also seems to me that kickers possess way more value than normal because they are almost a lock for 5-10 points each game and nabbing a kicker on a SB team guarantees you thirty points. I could see Gotskowski or Prater being worth 4th-5th round value.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Rodgers went first in my league, followed by Brady and Manning. I think those are the clear top three guys and, after thinking about it for a few days, it seems like solid strategy to pair these guys with their respective position players then try to draft some long shots. I think this is the way to go, especially if you're in a league with 6-10 teams. Accordingly, you could draft Manning/Moreno/Decker or Brady/Ridley/Hernandez in the first three rounds then cherry pick value 3-6 seeded guys like Reggie Wayne/AJ Green if you think those teams could advance or Schaub as a QB2 if available to try to get some premium scoring early and coast to a win if your core top team makes it. It also seems to me that kickers possess way more value than normal because they are almost a lock for 5-10 points each game and nabbing a kicker on a SB team guarantees you thirty points. I could see Gotskowski or Prater being worth 4th-5th round value.

I agree with trying to pair up a top WR with your top QB. A trio like you suggest is possible, but maybe at the expense of cheating yourself out os some real value. It's a tough call taking a Ridley for instance over a Adrian Peterson if you have Brady. Would you do it? I don't think I would. AJ Green fell to the 7th round and was ridiculous value, but I passed on him to nab Brandon Lloyd. I'm not sure that even makes sense. Kickers aren't near close to 4th or 5th round value, but you definitely want to be on the leading edge of the kicker run. I got caught at the end of the run and got left with the 49ers kicker who would be eliminated by my QB1 Rodgers. Definitely try to lock up Gostkowski or Prater around the time others are reaching for the WR3's and WR4's. I'd suggest 8th round as the time to dip into the kicker pool.

 

[inca911]

Don't forget about the Billy Cundiff signing in SF. I started the Kicker run with Prater, and then grabbed Cundiff much later.

I like DEN to go to the SB (they get Hou/Cincy winner, not exactly scary), so my first picks were Manning and Thomas (3 game players, paired scoring). High risk/reward. I followed with Gronk (2 gamer). Decker was still available, so I grabbed him and cornered the market on DEN passing. Gambling on Seattle's chances to play two games, and maybe three, I grabbed Wilson, paused to grab two weaker RBs in Harris and Jacquizz (league is PPR, so RBs aren't as valuable), then filled in later with more Seahawks (Turbin, Tate, Baldwin, Miller, DST) with some Redskins thrown in for insurance (Morgan, SMoss).

Playoff contests are home-run derbies, where close doesn't matter. If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing for the fences. Load up and go all-in.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I like DEN to go to the SB (they get Hou/Cincy winner, not exactly scary),

Only if Cinncy or wins. If Houston wins Denver gets the winner of the Baltimore/Indy game.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Playoff contests are home-run derbies, where close doesn't matter. If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing for the fences. Load up and go all-in.

This implies the tying in of players such as QB/WR/TE?

 

[inca911]

Playoff contests are home-run derbies, where close doesn't matter. If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing for the fences. Load up and go all-in.

This implies the tying in of players such as QB/WR/TE?

To me, yes. If I could have grabbed Moreno, I would have done so.Pick your playoff winners, and try to get the top scorers from the team you think is most likely to play the most games. Most games is greater chance of higher scores. I have Denver as my most likely 3 game team. GB is my other 3 gamer, but I also have Seattle with a chance to play 3 games so I ended up with a lot of Seahawks.As long as someone gives me points, I don't care if they come early or late in the contest.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

The go "all in" strategy seems to be popular and Bloom even subscribes to picking 1-2 teams on each side of the playoff brackets and going heavy on them. I wanted to do that, but I could not ignore Dodds top 130 with predicted games and fantasy points. It's all a guess, but in the end points are points where ever they come from. I see a lot of value fall just because of players being on the "wrong team". I think it's best to choose a hybrid draft strategy of VBD and all-in and don't be afraid to stray from the guideline if the value is there.

 

[Team Smokin']

The go "all in" strategy seems to be popular and Bloom even subscribes to picking 1-2 teams on each side of the playoff brackets and going heavy on them. I wanted to do that, but I could not ignore Dodds top 130 with predicted games and fantasy points. It's all a guess, but in the end points are points where ever they come from. I see a lot of value fall just because of players being on the "wrong team". I think it's best to choose a hybrid draft strategy of VBD and all-in and don't be afraid to stray from the guideline if the value is there.

I have tried both strategies. One - spread the wealth to the best players. In this case you will most likely come up short to the team who loaded up with players playing in the SuperBowl. It's always a crapshoot. Just when you think ya got something going, the "best" team gets bounced and so does your fantasy playoff team.Having 2-3 dominate players on each team that gets to the SuperBowl, if you can pick it, most likely will get you the win. The favorites are what most people are doing. Then, when the draft shifts and you can't get any DEN / NE players or only 1 player from GB, you gotta go elsewhere, Like ATL and HOU for an example. HOU could get hot again and ATL has not really ever cooled off

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Don't forget about the Billy Cundiff signing in SF. I started the Kicker run with Prater, and then grabbed Cundiff much later.

I like DEN to go to the SB (they get Hou/Cincy winner, not exactly scary), so my first picks were Manning and Thomas (3 game players, paired scoring). High risk/reward. I followed with Gronk (2 gamer). Decker was still available, so I grabbed him and cornered the market on DEN passing. Gambling on Seattle's chances to play two games, and maybe three, I grabbed Wilson, paused to grab two weaker RBs in Harris and Jacquizz (league is PPR, so RBs aren't as valuable), then filled in later with more Seahawks (Turbin, Tate, Baldwin, Miller, DST) with some Redskins thrown in for insurance (Morgan, SMoss).

Playoff contests are home-run derbies, where close doesn't matter. If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing for the fences. Load up and go all-in.

I'm just curious, how many partcipants were in this draft.?I am in a 6 teamer, picking 3rd, and while I have a shot at Manning, there is no way in hell I would be able to get all of the bolded guys as my top 5 picks. I think they should all be gone by pick 20 at the absolute latest.

 

[BoomBoom]

Don't forget about the Billy Cundiff signing in SF. I started the Kicker run with Prater, and then grabbed Cundiff much later.

I like DEN to go to the SB (they get Hou/Cincy winner, not exactly scary), so my first picks were Manning and Thomas (3 game players, paired scoring). High risk/reward. I followed with Gronk (2 gamer). Decker was still available, so I grabbed him and cornered the market on DEN passing. Gambling on Seattle's chances to play two games, and maybe three, I grabbed Wilson, paused to grab two weaker RBs in Harris and Jacquizz (league is PPR, so RBs aren't as valuable), then filled in later with more Seahawks (Turbin, Tate, Baldwin, Miller, DST) with some Redskins thrown in for insurance (Morgan, SMoss).

Playoff contests are home-run derbies, where close doesn't matter. If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing for the fences. Load up and go all-in.

I'm just curious, how many partcipants were in this draft.?I am in a 6 teamer, picking 3rd, and while I have a shot at Manning, there is no way in hell I would be able to get all of the bolded guys as my top 5 picks. I think they should all be gone by pick 20 at the absolute latest.

We are in a 6 teamer. Best ball (so don't have to worry about setting lineups). Best QB,2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, 1 k, 1 d. Position limits apply (all teams draft 2 QB, 4 RB, 6 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D). Almost through 3 rounds...1. Rodgers

2. Ryan

3. Manning

4. Brady

5. DThomas

6. Kaepernick

6. Rice

5. R. Wilson

4. Welker

3. Moreno

2. Lynch

1. Foster

1. Gronk

2. AJohnson

3. Decker

4. Gore

5. Ridley

 

[devouredbychaos]

I have 2 drafts tomorrow night, and am going to try and get as many NE, Denver, GB and Atlanta players as possible. After the top QBs go I would definitely go after AP. Even if he only gets to play one game, there's a real chance for at least 150-200 yds and a few TDs, plus playing in a total points league, there's no way I could pass that up.

I'm even considering Gronk in the late 1st or early 2nd round, I feel he has more value than any WR/TE in the first few rounds.

 

[Bobcat10]

Anyone in a playoff league (mine is 12 people) where you can have 1 player max from the playoff teams?

 

[inca911]

I'm just curious, how many partcipants were in this draft?

I am in a 6 teamer, picking 3rd, and while I have a shot at Manning, there is no way in hell I would be able to get all of the bolded guys as my top 5 picks. I think they should all be gone by pick 20 at the absolute latest.

8 team work league draft with several pretty weak owners. QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, K, DST starters. Lineups set weekly, total points win. 5 points passing TDs, PPR. Here are results from the first 5 rounds (note that my RBs are Harris, Jacquizz, and Turbin):Aaron Rodgers

Arian Foster

Tom Brady

Mike Turner

Peyton Manning

Adrian Peterson

Andrew Luck

RG3

Moreno

Ray Rice

Jordy Nelson

Dem. Thomas

Wes Welker

Marshawn Lynch

Andy Dalton

Andre Johnson

Roddy White

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Frank Gore

Rob Gronkowski

Randall Cobb

Reggie Wayne

Greg Jennings

Green-Ellis

Alfred Morris

Mike Crabtree

Eric Decker

Torrey Smith

Joe Flacco

Tony Gonzalez

Stevan Ridley

Matt Ryan

Kaepernick

Vernon Davis

Matt Schaub

Russ Wilson

Christian Ponder

Jermichal Finley

Jacob Tamme

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I'm just curious, how many partcipants were in this draft?

I am in a 6 teamer, picking 3rd, and while I have a shot at Manning, there is no way in hell I would be able to get all of the bolded guys as my top 5 picks. I think they should all be gone by pick 20 at the absolute latest.

8 team work league draft with several pretty weak owners. QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, K, DST starters. Lineups set weekly, total points win. 5 points passing TDs, PPR. Here are results from the first 5 rounds (note that my RBs are Harris, Jacquizz, and Turbin):Aaron Rodgers

Arian Foster

Tom Brady

Mike Turner

Peyton Manning

Adrian Peterson

Andrew Luck

RG3

Moreno

Ray Rice

Jordy Nelson

Dem. Thomas

Wes Welker

Marshawn Lynch

Andy Dalton

Andre Johnson

Roddy White

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Frank Gore

Rob Gronkowski

Randall Cobb

Reggie Wayne

Greg Jennings

Green-Ellis

Alfred Morris

Mike Crabtree

Eric Decker

Torrey Smith

Joe Flacco

Tony Gonzalez

Stevan Ridley

Matt Ryan

Kaepernick

Vernon Davis

Matt Schaub

Russ Wilson

Christian Ponder

Jermichal Finley

Jacob Tamme

Good for you....but you are drafting with idiots. MICHAEL TURNER!?!? With Peyton on the board?The 5 guys you selected went in the top 15 in my six teamer.

 

[5 digit know nothing]

Had an interesting auction draft last night, MFL seems pretty buggy - didn't properly track team's remaining balance so we had to do that manually to make sure nobody overspent.

8 teams, 150 budget, my selections in bold/red

Spoiler

53 QB Rodgers, Aaron GBP

51 QB Manning, Peyton DEN

51 QB Brady, Tom NEP

27 QB Kaepernick, Colin SFO

24 QB Griffin III, Robert WAS

24 QB Ryan, Matt ATL

20 QB Dalton, Andy CIN

17 QB Schaub, Matt HOU

15 QB Wilson, Russell SEA

14 QB Luck, Andrew IND

6 QB Flacco, Joe BAL

3 QB Ponder, Christian MIN

42 RB Moreno, Knowshon DEN

34 RB Foster, Arian HOU

34 RB Peterson, Adrian MIN

33 RB Lynch, Marshawn SEA

31 RB Rice, Ray BAL

31 RB Gore, Frank SFO

28 RB Morris, Alfred WAS

24 RB Ridley, Stevan NEP

19 RB Woodhead, Danny NEP

16 RB Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN

12 RB Starks, James GBP

9 RB Ballard, Vick IND

9 RB Turner, Michael ATL

5 RB Harris, DuJuan GBP

5 RB Bolden, Brandon NEP

3 RB Vereen, Shane NEP

3 RB Royster, Evan WAS

3 RB Scott, Bernard CIN

3 RB Tate, Ben HOU

2 RB Pierce, Bernard BAL

2 RB Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL

2 RB Hillman, Ronnie DEN

2 RB Gerhart, Toby MIN

1 RB McGahee, Willis DEN

1 RB Hunter, Kendall SFO

32 WR Welker, Wes NEP

30 WR Thomas, Demaryius DEN

23 WR Johnson, Andre HOU

22 WR Jones, Julio ATL

22 WR Wayne, Reggie IND

18 WR Green, A.J. CIN

18 WR Lloyd, Brandon NEP

15 WR Crabtree, Michael SFO

15 WR White, Roddy ATL

11 WR Decker, Eric DEN

11 WR Tate, Golden SEA

11 WR Garcon, Pierre WAS

9 WR Cobb, Randall GBP

9 WR Jones, James GBP

8 WR Smith, Torrey BAL

8 WR Jennings, Greg GBP

8 WR Nelson, Jordy GBP

4 WR Boldin, Anquan BAL

4 WR Rice, Sidney SEA

4 WR Hilton, T.Y. IND

3 WR Moss, Santana WAS

3 WR Moss, Randy SFO

3 WR Stokley, Brandon DEN

1 WR Wright, Jarius MIN

1 WR Avery, Donnie IND

1 WR Baldwin, Doug SEA

1 WR Hankerson, Leonard WAS

26 TE Hernandez, Aaron NEP

20 TE Gronkowski, Rob NEP

11 TE Davis, Vernon SFO

9 TE Gonzalez, Tony ATL

7 TE Finley, Jermichael GBP

7 TE Tamme, Jacob DEN

6 TE Gresham, Jermaine CIN

2 TE Pitta, Dennis BAL

1 TE Daniels, Owen HOU

1 TE Fleener, Coby IND

1 TE Rudolph, Kyle MIN

4 PK Crosby, Mason GBP

3 PK Graham, Shayne HOU

2 PK Gostkowski, Stephen NEP

2 PK Hauschka, Steven SEA

2 PK Akers, David SFO

1 PK Brown, Josh CIN

1 PK Tucker, Justin BAL

1 PK Prater, Matt DEN

11 Def Broncos, Denver DEN

7 Def Patriots, New England NEP

4 Def Seahawks, Seattle SEA

4 Def 49ers, San Francisco SFO

4 Def Texans, Houston HOU

3 Def Ravens, Baltimore BAL

2 Def Packers, Green Bay GBP

1 Def Falcons, Atlanta ATL

1 Def Redskins, Washington WAS

1 Def Bengals, Cincinnati CIN

What I enjoy about playoff ff leagues is that each owner could agree on a per game production from each of the players in the draft pool, but the difference in projected wins by team in the playoffs will alter each owner's ranking of players since that greatly affects the player's possible production.

I landed my #1 QB, RB, WR and Defense as well as 3 of my top 5 RB's, 4 of my top 10 WR's, a top 3 TE, and a top 3 PK. Even in an auction draft format for a regular season ff league achieving something like this is next to impossible in a competitive league with knowledgeable owners.

 

[packseasontix]

I am still trying to get an auction playoff league done, either by joining a MFL or by starting up one of my own.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=673717

Wish ESPN and such did actual fantasy leagues instead of the pick anyone you want league.