((Morpheus))
Footballguy
Who do you have in your top 10 in a PPR league?
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Let's talk PPR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ((Morpheus))
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donovanfan
Footballguy
My league tilts toward receiving by RBs:
1-LT
2-SJax
3-LJ
4-Gore
5-Westbrook
6-Bush
7-Addai
8-Manning
9-Parker
10-Maroney
I think there is a bit of a cliff after another 2 RBs in a 10 team league. 2nd round should be loaded with top WR's.
1-LT
2-SJax
3-LJ
4-Gore
5-Westbrook
6-Bush
7-Addai
8-Manning
9-Parker
10-Maroney
I think there is a bit of a cliff after another 2 RBs in a 10 team league. 2nd round should be loaded with top WR's.
the spanker
Footballguy
I think the top 20 is a better question since the top 10 are primarly RBs. Here are my top 20 assuming 6pts are giving to QBs for TDs:1.Lt2. Jackson3. Gore4. Westbrook 5. LJ6. Addai7. Manning8. Parker9. R. Brown10. Bush11. Steve Smith12. Chad13. Harriosn14. Holt15. Maroney16. Henry17. Owens18. Wayne19. Roy20. AndreNot necessarily how I'd draft them but who I feel will be the top 20.14.
tomarken
Footballguy
Wow. I have to go rethink my entire PPR strategy. Thanks for the insight.
1. LT2. SJax3. Westbrook4. Bush5. Gore6. Addai7. Parker8. Maroney9. MJD10. CJ
BigRed
Footballguy
lol - yeah I was also thinking about how water is wet Good list (minus CJ) I think.Wow. I have to go rethink my entire PPR strategy. Thanks for the insight.1. LT2. SJax3. Westbrook4. Bush5. Gore6. Addai7. Parker8. Maroney9. MJD10. CJ
shamrock84
Footballguy
1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
3. Manning, Peyton IND QB
4. Johnson, Larry KCC RB
5. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
6. Brees, Drew NOS QB
7. Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
8. Bulger, Marc STL QB
9. Gore, Frank SFO RB
10. Harrison, Marvin IND WR
2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
3. Manning, Peyton IND QB
4. Johnson, Larry KCC RB
5. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
6. Brees, Drew NOS QB
7. Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
8. Bulger, Marc STL QB
9. Gore, Frank SFO RB
10. Harrison, Marvin IND WR
tomarken
Footballguy
Cenobite
Footballguy
In no way should a PPR league cause an uptick in QBs ADP. If anything, QBs will drop because of the emphasis on receptions.
tomarken
Footballguy
The only thing I can think is that this is a list of the top ten scoring players this year in PPR. In which case, depending on how QB's and DST's are scored, this is actually a pretty decent list. But a list of the top ten scorers is pretty useless as far as draft prep goes and I assume that was not the point of this thread.ETA these were the top 10 scorers in my one PPR league from last year:In no way should a PPR league cause an uptick in QBs ADP. If anything, QBs will drop because of the emphasis on receptions.
1. Tomlinson
2. Jackson
3. Manning
4. Johnson
5. Westbrook
6. Brees
7. Gore
8. Vick
9. Bulger
10. Harrison
Scary how similar it is...if his league devalues running QB's and upgrades DST's, he may have just copied his ton ten from 2006.
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So in your opinion does it make any difference in drafting a brand new keeper league at the #3 spot if you have 1/2 pt per reception.
Normally people are stating LT, SJax, LJ as the top 3 choices but throw in the keeper scenerio and 1/2 pt per reception, does Bush jump to that number 3 spot?
Westy and LJ are older and if you are looking to build a new franchise who do you take keeping in mind about the PPR?
Normally people are stating LT, SJax, LJ as the top 3 choices but throw in the keeper scenerio and 1/2 pt per reception, does Bush jump to that number 3 spot?
Westy and LJ are older and if you are looking to build a new franchise who do you take keeping in mind about the PPR?
tomarken
Footballguy
I'd take Bush at #3 in this format. But then, I didn't even have LJ in my top ten.
shamrock84
Footballguy
The only thing I can think is that this is a list of the top ten scoring players this year in PPR. In which case, depending on how QB's and DST's are scored, this is actually a pretty decent list. But a list of the top ten scorers is pretty useless as far as draft prep goes and I assume that was not the point of this thread.ETA these were the top 10 scorers in my one PPR league from last year:In no way should a PPR league cause an uptick in QBs ADP. If anything, QBs will drop because of the emphasis on receptions.
1. Tomlinson
2. Jackson
3. Manning
4. Johnson
5. Westbrook
6. Brees
7. Gore
8. Vick
9. Bulger
10. Harrison
Scary how similar it is...if his league devalues running QB's and upgrades DST's, he may have just copied his ton ten from 2006.
This is what I did. Sorry I misunderstood what you were asking for in this thread.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
1. LT
2. Jackson
3. Bush (yes, this high)
4. Westbrook
5. Gore
6. Addai
7. Manning
8. LJ
9. Parker
10. Maroney
2. Jackson
3. Bush (yes, this high)
4. Westbrook
5. Gore
6. Addai
7. Manning
8. LJ
9. Parker
10. Maroney
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mlball77
Footballguy
With the way the question was phrased by the OP, it seems as though he likely has non PPR rankings already. Instead of posting my biased rankings, I was trying to give some very basic advice on how to alter his non PPR rankings. And yes, VERY basic advice… but seems applicable in this case if the poster is asking who is in the top ten in PPR.tomarken said:Wow. I have to go rethink my entire PPR strategy. Thanks for the insight.mlball77 said:1. LT2. SJax3. Westbrook4. Bush5. Gore6. Addai7. Parker8. Maroney9. MJD10. CJ
tomarken
Footballguy
Hmm, I guess you infer a lot more from the question "Who do you have in your top 10 in a PPR league?" than I do. Seems pretty straightforward to me.With the way the question was phrased by the OP, it seems as though he likely has non PPR rankings already. Instead of posting my biased rankings, I was trying to give some very basic advice on how to alter his non PPR rankings. And yes, VERY basic advice… but seems applicable in this case if the poster is asking who is in the top ten in PPR.tomarken said:Wow. I have to go rethink my entire PPR strategy. Thanks for the insight.mlball77 said:
mlball77
Footballguy
Guess so. I took that question as a request for help in shaping his PPR top ten... but I guess his top ten could be totally set and he perhaps wants to get a feeling for what others are thinking about who is in the top ten in PPR in order to prepare for a draft etc.
((Morpheus))
Footballguy
Wow, I'm happy this topic took off.
It seems to me that the top two spots are fairly obvious at this point. After that it looks like a toss up between Bush and Westy (I can't believe how many people have Bush at 3!?) followed by Gore and Addai. After that there's a cluster-#### of RB's who could all finish top 10, along with whichever WRs you prefer.
On the Westy/Bush decision: obviously Westy is in the better situation as the focal point of the Eagles offense and without serious competition (like Deuce), but Bush seems to have an unlimited ceiling.
I'd like to hear from those who placed Bush at #3 - what makes you think that he will outperform Westbrook/Addai/Gore et. al?
It seems to me that the top two spots are fairly obvious at this point. After that it looks like a toss up between Bush and Westy (I can't believe how many people have Bush at 3!?) followed by Gore and Addai. After that there's a cluster-#### of RB's who could all finish top 10, along with whichever WRs you prefer.
On the Westy/Bush decision: obviously Westy is in the better situation as the focal point of the Eagles offense and without serious competition (like Deuce), but Bush seems to have an unlimited ceiling.
I'd like to hear from those who placed Bush at #3 - what makes you think that he will outperform Westbrook/Addai/Gore et. al?
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((Morpheus))
Footballguy
shameless bump
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Is this a WDID... explain how mine was and this isn't
lawrence phillips
Footballguy
I'd like to hear from those folks too. I don't get how you can rank Bush ahead of Westbrook. Westbrook finally proved last year that he can play a whole season. Westbrook is Philly's best running back (obviously) and arguably their most dangerous receiving threat. Buckhalter will be back, but he won't steal carries, he'll be in there just enough to keep Westy fresh and healthy. Bush on the other hand has to fight with Deuce for carries. Also, I don't get your comment on Bush's ceiling being unlimited. It would seem to me a stretch to expect much more than his 88 catches from last year for Bush. I would expect a modest increase in his rushing yardage and ypc, but he won't be seeing goal line carries. With Deuce around, I don't see how Bush has an unlimited ceiling. Anyways, my top 10 right now looks like this:1. Tomlinson2. Jackson3. Westbrook4. Gore5. Bush6. LJ7. Addai8. Parker9. Portis10. CJ((Morpheus)) said:
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
veto87
Footballguy
Take Maroney out of there with Moss in the buildingBut I'd move Manning out, bump up Parker, and then have Alexander at 9.
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the spanker
Footballguy
How is Portis in the top 10? he doesn't catch enough pasess and there is a fairly good chance Bettis (who is a better pass catcher) may be the 3rd down back now...agree?
Rushmore
Footballguy
I'd bet money that Bettis doesn't catch any passes this year for the Redskins.
lawrence phillips
Footballguy
Yes, I agree that Portis doesn't catch a lot of passes, then again LJ and FWP didn't catch many last year either and they still landed in the top 10. In PPR leagues RBs who don't catch a lot of passes still have value. This is year two in Al Saunders offense, when was the last time an Al Saunders offense didn't see big fantasy numbers out of the running back position? Obviously Portis was hurt entering the season last year and he didn't finish the season, but if you took Portis' numbers pre injury and Betts' post Portis injury, you have combined output of the #5 overall player in fantasy football according to my ppr fantasy points from last year. Sure Betts got more catches, but I think few would argue that CP is the better runner here and while Betts might steal carries and get more receptions, Portis will get the bulk of the work and is undisputedly in line to get goal line carries. Overall, the offense should be better and lead to more TD opportunities. The Skins offensive line is one of the best run blocking lines in the league, Portis looks like he will be 100% healthy unlike last year. He was hobbled by shoulder and knee injuries last year and he still managed to be productive despite that. Betts will be the 3rd down back, but he was last year anyways. Make no mistake, when healthy Portis is the focal point of the offense. Throw in the fact that Betts is not great around the goal line and you'll see Portis get most of the carries around the goal line. I don't think 35 receptions, 1450 rushing yards and 15 TDs is a stretch IF the guy is healthy. Now if he has a setback in training camp then I would change things. If he's healthy though, I think he's a good bet for top 10 and an almost guarantee top 15.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
1- LT
2- Steven Jackson
3- Joseph Addai (safe)
4- Reggie Bush (injury risk)
5- Brian Westbrook (injury risk)
6- Larry Johnson (holdout risk)
7- Frank Gore
8- Willie Parker (safe)
9- Larry Maroney
10- Shaun Alexander
2- Steven Jackson
3- Joseph Addai (safe)
4- Reggie Bush (injury risk)
5- Brian Westbrook (injury risk)
6- Larry Johnson (holdout risk)
7- Frank Gore
8- Willie Parker (safe)
9- Larry Maroney
10- Shaun Alexander
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
I'm a little curious as to why the top WR(s) don't break into the top 10 somewhere. I'm totally fine with LT, SJax, Westy, Bush and Gore in some order and you can make a case for a few others (Addai, Parker...), but they all come with questions. Does the top WR who is probably going to pull in 90-100 receptions, 1400ish yards and 13ish TD's not slide into the top 10 over the group of RB's with ?'s surrounding them?
tomarken
Footballguy
It's all about value. There are too many WR's who are going to put up good numbers in PPR, so there are not one or two who are so much more valuable than the rest of the pack that they jump into the top 10 overall. Sure, the RB's have question marks, but you have to take a shot - if you get one that pans out it will give you a big advantage. If you end up with the one that busts, then it's going to hurt your season, but it's not like waiting another round or two to get your RB is going to make this any less likely.
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
Not sure I agree with this. I'm completely with you on the value concept and I buy the RB scarcity concept too, but I disagree with "the so many WR's who will put up good PPR numbers". I think there is a much smaller group of elite receivers who are more valuable than the tier of RB's below than the ones I mentioned above and arguably a few more. There were only 3 receivers who broke double digit TD's and had 85+ catches (Marv, Holt and Owens) with another few that were close.
tomarken
Footballguy
EOY point totals for the top 12 WR's in my PPR league last year:Harrison 285.2Wayne 260.0Driver 259.4Owens 259.3C Johnson 259.1Holt 253.8A Johnson 246.3Houshmandzadeh 244.3Walker 237.4Coles 233.9Evans 231.6Smith 231.1It goes on from there. If you want to take a guess and pick one of those in the first round, go crazy. Just know that you could get one with very similar numbers a round or two later, and your RB situation will be a lot worse if you pass on RB's in the first round.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Good example being CJ vs. Housh. Last year Housh was much more consistent but CJ is likely to be one of the first 2 or 3 WR taken this year...late first, early 2nd round. Why not wait another round or two and get TJH with similar production.
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
If that is how they lined up then I'd agree, but I also believe last year was an off year for WR's as a whole.2003 8 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 2 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards2004 9 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 11 WR's at 1200+ yards2005 7 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 9 WR's at 1200+ yards2006 5 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 3 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yardsI'm sure we can argue about the parameters (1200 & 10), but I do believe last year was an off year production wise for WR's. The thing I'm getting at is I am much more convinced I'll get the production from Steve Smith as opposed to Ronnie Brown.Good example being CJ vs. Housh. Last year Housh was much more consistent but CJ is likely to be one of the first 2 or 3 WR taken this year...late first, early 2nd round. Why not wait another round or two and get TJH with similar production.
footballfreak99
Footballguy
Coles is a guy that I just never expect to do well but he continues to. Does anyone think Cotchery will steal more and more fantasy points away from Coles this year though?
tomarken
Footballguy
You're actually making my point. If there were fewer "elite" WR's last year, then they were more valuable than usual. If you think there will be more WR's that reach 1200/10 this year, then that makes them even less valuable then they were last year. Referring to your specific example, I'd much rather have Ronnie Brown (who has been remarkably consistent, if not spectactular) than gamble on a WR that probably won't significantly outscore the WR I can get one or two rounds later. If you think the RB's at the end of the first are too much of a gamble, what do you think of the RB's that will be left at the end of the third? I mean, I don't think anyone would disagree that most RB's outside the top 2 or 3 have question marks, but let's try put it into context - if there was only one round in the draft then maybe Steve Smith would be a better pick than Brown, but I think most of us draft more than one player, and that is why it's better IMO to get at least one RB early.If that is how they lined up then I'd agree, but I also believe last year was an off year for WR's as a whole.2003 8 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 2 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
2004 9 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 11 WR's at 1200+ yards
2005 7 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 9 WR's at 1200+ yards
2006 5 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 3 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
I'm sure we can argue about the parameters (1200 & 10), but I do believe last year was an off year production wise for WR's. The thing I'm getting at is I am much more convinced I'll get the production from Steve Smith as opposed to Ronnie Brown.
tomarken
Footballguy
Coles is a guy that benefits greatly from the PPR format. His yardage and TD totals are nothing spectacular, but he racks up a lot of catches. Even with what Cotchery did last year Coles still had one of his best years ever. I haven't really done any WR projections yet but off the top of my head I don't expect a big dropoff for Coles.
the spanker
Footballguy
Nice summary here on overall value between WRs and RBs. That's why I've always said the draft doesn't really begin until the 2nd round because RBs (and maybe Peyton) will more than likely dominate the first round of most drafts. Now in the 2nd round to get a Steve Smith to pair with a Ronnie Brown is the QUESTION depending who's on the board at the time and where all the serious questions begin.For example, do you take Ronnie/Portis or Ronnie/Edge if one of them are on the board instead of Steve Smith?You're actually making my point. If there were fewer "elite" WR's last year, then they were more valuable than usual. If you think there will be more WR's that reach 1200/10 this year, then that makes them even less valuable then they were last year. Referring to your specific example, I'd much rather have Ronnie Brown (who has been remarkably consistent, if not spectactular) than gamble on a WR that probably won't significantly outscore the WR I can get one or two rounds later. If you think the RB's at the end of the first are too much of a gamble, what do you think of the RB's that will be left at the end of the third? I mean, I don't think anyone would disagree that most RB's outside the top 2 or 3 have question marks, but let's try put it into context - if there was only one round in the draft then maybe Steve Smith would be a better pick than Brown, but I think most of us draft more than one player, and that is why it's better IMO to get at least one RB early.If that is how they lined up then I'd agree, but I also believe last year was an off year for WR's as a whole.2003 8 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 2 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yardsGood example being CJ vs. Housh. Last year Housh was much more consistent but CJ is likely to be one of the first 2 or 3 WR taken this year...late first, early 2nd round. Why not wait another round or two and get TJH with similar production.
2004 9 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 11 WR's at 1200+ yards
2005 7 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 9 WR's at 1200+ yards
2006 5 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 3 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
I'm sure we can argue about the parameters (1200 & 10), but I do believe last year was an off year production wise for WR's. The thing I'm getting at is I am much more convinced I'll get the production from Steve Smith as opposed to Ronnie Brown.
Postion scarity vs. Pt production by round. Do you draft for depth or do you take a chance with BPA and hope you can make up the RB depth later on?
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
This is the kind of decision I'm talking about and was brought about much more efficiently than me!! You don't have to buy Smith in the first round, but if you're drafting in the bottom portion of a draft (say 8 of 12 or so), you'll be faced with something like Steve Smith or Ronnie Brown in the 2nd. Presumably you already have an RB in the first as it is virtually impossible to not pick an RB in round 1 and you're certainly not going to waste the first rounder on Smith. If you don't take Smith in the second, the chances of someone from that tier of WR making it back to you are slim as it's 14 more picks before your turn. So, in the second round with an RB already in tow, do you opt for Ronnie Brown or Steve Smith? IMHO, a decent case can be made for Steve Smith (or whoever your WR#1 is), especially in a PPR league.the spanker said:Nice summary here on overall value between WRs and RBs. That's why I've always said the draft doesn't really begin until the 2nd round because RBs (and maybe Peyton) will more than likely dominate the first round of most drafts. Now in the 2nd round to get a Steve Smith to pair with a Ronnie Brown is the QUESTION depending who's on the board at the time and where all the serious questions begin.For example, do you take Ronnie/Portis or Ronnie/Edge if one of them are on the board instead of Steve Smith?You're actually making my point. If there were fewer "elite" WR's last year, then they were more valuable than usual. If you think there will be more WR's that reach 1200/10 this year, then that makes them even less valuable then they were last year. Referring to your specific example, I'd much rather have Ronnie Brown (who has been remarkably consistent, if not spectactular) than gamble on a WR that probably won't significantly outscore the WR I can get one or two rounds later. If you think the RB's at the end of the first are too much of a gamble, what do you think of the RB's that will be left at the end of the third? I mean, I don't think anyone would disagree that most RB's outside the top 2 or 3 have question marks, but let's try put it into context - if there was only one round in the draft then maybe Steve Smith would be a better pick than Brown, but I think most of us draft more than one player, and that is why it's better IMO to get at least one RB early.If that is how they lined up then I'd agree, but I also believe last year was an off year for WR's as a whole.2003 8 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 2 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
2004 9 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 11 WR's at 1200+ yards
2005 7 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 9 WR's at 1200+ yards
2006 5 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 3 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
I'm sure we can argue about the parameters (1200 & 10), but I do believe last year was an off year production wise for WR's. The thing I'm getting at is I am much more convinced I'll get the production from Steve Smith as opposed to Ronnie Brown.
Postion scarity vs. Pt production by round. Do you draft for depth or do you take a chance with BPA and hope you can make up the RB depth later on?
the spanker
Footballguy
I've heard so many arguments from both sides on which strategy is the best way to go:Side A - Position Scarity--"You should ALWAYS secure those 2 RBs in the first two rounds no matter what! Injuries come into play and if you only draft one RB in the first couple round and he's hit with an injury you've been dealt the DEATH BLOW! Your championship run is OVER and even if you managed to WILL your team into the playoffs with astue WW skills, you will not win the championship!"This is the kind of decision I'm talking about and was brought about much more efficiently than me!! You don't have to buy Smith in the first round, but if you're drafting in the bottom portion of a draft (say 8 of 12 or so), you'll be faced with something like Steve Smith or Ronnie Brown in the 2nd. Presumably you already have an RB in the first as it is virtually impossible to not pick an RB in round 1 and you're certainly not going to waste the first rounder on Smith. If you don't take Smith in the second, the chances of someone from that tier of WR making it back to you are slim as it's 14 more picks before your turn. So, in the second round with an RB already in tow, do you opt for Ronnie Brown or Steve Smith? IMHO, a decent case can be made for Steve Smith (or whoever your WR#1 is), especially in a PPR league.the spanker said:Nice summary here on overall value between WRs and RBs. That's why I've always said the draft doesn't really begin until the 2nd round because RBs (and maybe Peyton) will more than likely dominate the first round of most drafts. Now in the 2nd round to get a Steve Smith to pair with a Ronnie Brown is the QUESTION depending who's on the board at the time and where all the serious questions begin.For example, do you take Ronnie/Portis or Ronnie/Edge if one of them are on the board instead of Steve Smith?You're actually making my point. If there were fewer "elite" WR's last year, then they were more valuable than usual. If you think there will be more WR's that reach 1200/10 this year, then that makes them even less valuable then they were last year. Referring to your specific example, I'd much rather have Ronnie Brown (who has been remarkably consistent, if not spectactular) than gamble on a WR that probably won't significantly outscore the WR I can get one or two rounds later. If you think the RB's at the end of the first are too much of a gamble, what do you think of the RB's that will be left at the end of the third? I mean, I don't think anyone would disagree that most RB's outside the top 2 or 3 have question marks, but let's try put it into context - if there was only one round in the draft then maybe Steve Smith would be a better pick than Brown, but I think most of us draft more than one player, and that is why it's better IMO to get at least one RB early.If that is how they lined up then I'd agree, but I also believe last year was an off year for WR's as a whole.2003 8 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 2 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
2004 9 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 11 WR's at 1200+ yards
2005 7 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 4 at 9. 9 WR's at 1200+ yards
2006 5 WR's with 10 + TD's and another 3 at 9. 7 WR's at 1200+ yards
I'm sure we can argue about the parameters (1200 & 10), but I do believe last year was an off year production wise for WR's. The thing I'm getting at is I am much more convinced I'll get the production from Steve Smith as opposed to Ronnie Brown.
Postion scarity vs. Pt production by round. Do you draft for depth or do you take a chance with BPA and hope you can make up the RB depth later on?
Problem I see with Side A's theory is that 50% of RBs taken in the first 2 rounds BUST anyway due to injury or for whatever reason end up with mediocre performance (ex, switching to a new team, OL injuries, QB injured D's stack the box now, RB plays through injuries but less effective, etc etc). We know from history that many of them every year will BUST or seriously underperform their ADP.
Side B - "The Heck with Side A's theory dude. Listen to me, the FF Jedi Master that has taught sharks themselves how to swim! What you do... DUDE, is utilize the BPA or VBD strategy. If Manning is there in the 2nd round take him, if Gates is there in the 3rd grab him, if McNabb is there in the 4th YOU TAKE HIM FOOL!!! There is ALWAYS time to snag decent RBs! Don't let those playa haters confuse you with all of their noise! BPA or VBD all day baby to the promised land! By the way, wanna see my trophies?"
Problem I see with Side B's theory is can you really win, or at least consisently have a good team that gives you a legit chance to win every year without taking RBs in the first 2 rounds? If you only draft 1 STUD RB and he BUSTS can your recover? Can you still be sucessful because you've drafted STUDS in other positions (that are less likely to BUST BTW) and still have the firepower to win it all? Does drafting RBs in the first two rounds REALLY give you this unparalleled advantage that many FF Know-It-Alls Enthusiasts claim that it does? I've seen championships won with a STUD RBs, but I've seen championships won with STUDs in two or three of the other positions without the STUD RB. Which roster is more likely, more often than not to prevail? Especially in a PPR league?
Anyone willing to take a shot on this?
tomarken
Footballguy
There's no right answer - if there was, we'd have figured it out by now. The key to both Side A and Side B is that your RB can't bust. If you take one and he busts, your team is crippled. If you take two and one of them busts, your team is crippled. If you can nab two RB's that don't bust, you're going to have a pretty good team. If you can grab one stud RB and the top WR, then you're going to have a pretty good team. Either strategy will work fine if you end up with the right players - unfortunately predicting the future isn't as easy as we all like to pretend. Just to tie this all back to the original question, since we're now talking about RB vs WR in the 2nd round, then hopefully it is clearer - WR's do not belong in the top 10, even if it is PPR.
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
Now that we are talking apples and apples, I completely agree. There should be no decision to be made in the first round--best RB available given your league setup. I wonder if the % of RB's busting from early draft spots = % of WR's busting from early round draft spots??There's no right answer - if there was, we'd have figured it out by now. The key to both Side A and Side B is that your RB can't bust. If you take one and he busts, your team is crippled. If you take two and one of them busts, your team is crippled. If you can nab two RB's that don't bust, you're going to have a pretty good team. If you can grab one stud RB and the top WR, then you're going to have a pretty good team. Either strategy will work fine if you end up with the right players - unfortunately predicting the future isn't as easy as we all like to pretend. Just to tie this all back to the original question, since we're now talking about RB vs WR in the 2nd round, then hopefully it is clearer - WR's do not belong in the top 10, even if it is PPR.
tomarken
Footballguy
I don't have any data on hand to back this up, but I would guess that the RB bust rate is higher than the WR bust rate. I'm assuming you would agree. I don't think this should change your draft strategy though. To simplify, let's say all RB's have a 50% chance of being a bust, and all WR's have a 0% chance of being a bust. I think I'd still rather take a RB in the first round with a 50/50 shot that he will be a top-10 RB (by which I am implying he will outscore the lower-tier RB's by a significant margin), than take a WR who is certain to put up points but won't outscore others at his position by very much. Despite the even odds that your first-round RB will bust, I doubt your chances of landing a quality RB increase if you wait until later rounds. If it's that much of a crapshoot in the first round, it only gets worse in the 2nd, 3rd, and beyond.
Mustang Man
Footballguy
This is a startup dynasty that is going on right now. PPR
1 - James00_33 ~ LaDanian Tomlinson
2 -RoosterSlayer45 ~ Steven Jackson
3 - Craphonso ~ Larry Johnson
4 - Gambler ~ Frank Gore
5 - XYZ ~ Reggie Bush
6 - Weekend Warriors ~ Joseph Addai
7 - Tutone ~ Brian Westbrook
8 - HEMI ~ Laurence Maroney
9 - Bangs ———> P. Manning
10 - sixxamFast ~ Willie Parker
11 - SuperChiefs ~ Willis Magahee
12 - Tavaner ~ Adrian Peterson (MIN)
1 - James00_33 ~ LaDanian Tomlinson
2 -RoosterSlayer45 ~ Steven Jackson
3 - Craphonso ~ Larry Johnson
4 - Gambler ~ Frank Gore
5 - XYZ ~ Reggie Bush
6 - Weekend Warriors ~ Joseph Addai
7 - Tutone ~ Brian Westbrook
8 - HEMI ~ Laurence Maroney
9 - Bangs ———> P. Manning
10 - sixxamFast ~ Willie Parker
11 - SuperChiefs ~ Willis Magahee
12 - Tavaner ~ Adrian Peterson (MIN)
GregR_2
Footballguy
Just for some variety, here are my top 10 in my dynasty league. .25 RB PPR, .5 WR, 1 TE. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 QB/RB flex, 4 WR, 2 TE, 1 WR/TE flex.
1. LT
2. Peyton
3. Gates
4. Steve Smith
5. Holt
6. Harrison
7. SJax
8. Wayne
9. Owens
10. Heap
That's based just on value from scoring and not on actual player contracts the player is playing under. If I factor in their production per how much salary cap they take up and how many years they are signed for, the list would start out something like Gore, Javon Walker, Brees, Winslow Jr., FWP, TJ Housh.
Some semblance of parity, and the extra decision making of dealing with contract lengths and salaries, is a nice thing to have in a hardcore league.
1. LT
2. Peyton
3. Gates
4. Steve Smith
5. Holt
6. Harrison
7. SJax
8. Wayne
9. Owens
10. Heap
That's based just on value from scoring and not on actual player contracts the player is playing under. If I factor in their production per how much salary cap they take up and how many years they are signed for, the list would start out something like Gore, Javon Walker, Brees, Winslow Jr., FWP, TJ Housh.
Some semblance of parity, and the extra decision making of dealing with contract lengths and salaries, is a nice thing to have in a hardcore league.
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
Agreed under your scenario that I would take an RB in the first round even with even odds of busting, but it would almost be a lock that I'd take a WR in the second under those circumstances. The first round would take a big % of the RB's not expected to bust leaving an even more suspect list for the 2nd round and beyond. I also have no historical data to support it, but agree that RB's likely have the higher bust rate in the early rounds--they also have an easier "road" to bustville as they are generally the higher pick with more expectations and value.
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